Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture

An Expert's View about Sales in Canada

Last updated: 19 Feb 2011

The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture covering the period 2009 to 2019. The outlook is an attempt to outline a plausible future of the international and domestic agri-food sectors. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis.

Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture International and Domestic Markets January 2010 10-006-r 1 Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture International and Domestic Markets January 2010 For further information, please contact: Pierre Charlebois, Chief Research and Analysis Directorate Economic Market Analysis Unit Strategic Policy Branch (613) 773-2449 or by e-mail at pierre.charlebois@agr.gc.ca Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) IMPORTANT NOTICES Copyright/Permission to Reproduce Materials in this publication were produced and/or compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada for the purpose of providing Canadians with direct access to information about the programs and services offered by the Government of Canada. The material in this publication is covered by the provisions of the Copyright Act, by Canadian laws, policies, regulations and international agreements. 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In such cases, some restrictions on the reproduction of materials or graphical elements may apply and it may be necessary to seek permission from the rights holder prior to reproducing the material. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2010 Publication: 11166E ISSN: 1923-0478 ISBN: 978-1-100-15048-2 Catalogue: A38-1/4-2010E-PDF Project: 10-006-r Electronic versions of Research and Analysis publications are available on the Internet at: http://www.agr.gc.ca/pol/pub Aussi disponible en français sous le titre : Les perspectives agricoles canadiennes à moyen terme 10-006-r 2 Table of contents FOREWORD 4 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 5 Macroeconomic assumptions 7 Foreign policies 8 Biofuel markets 9 HIGHLIGHTS 10 NATIONAL MARKETS 19 Crops 23 Red meats 32 Supply managed commodities 40 LIST OF ACRONYMS 47 ANNEX OF TABLES 49 10-006-r 3 Foreword The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture covering the period 2009 to 2019. The outlook is an attempt to outline a plausible future of the international and domestic agri-food sectors. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not a forecast of future events. In particular there are no assumptions made regarding the outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations. It also assumes no impact from climate change and from policy to mitigate climate change nor significant animal disease outbreaks or unusual climatic conditions over the period of the outlook. Finally in the absence of a final WTO decision on COOL, policies currently in place are maintained throughout the baseline. The outlook was produced with two econometric models of agricultural markets based upon information available in the fall of 2009. The AGLINK/COSIMO model of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) was used to produce the international outlook and the AAFC Food and Agriculture Regional Model (FARM) was used for the national outlook. The starting point of the international baseline is the so-called lower GDP slow recovery medium term scenario published in the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009-2018. This scenario was updated in the short term using macro-economic forecasts released by the OECD in September 2009 and by the World Bank in June 2009. Exchange rates were updated to reflect the information released at the end of 2008 and in the first 6 months of 2009. The agricultural outlook was updated to reflect short term price forecasts produced and released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in October 2009. The evolution of the world crude oil price reflects mostly the assumptions contemplated by Natural Resources Canada in the fall of 2009. The Canadian macro-economic forecasts for 2009 to 2014 are from the Conference Board of Canada outlook published in September 2009 except for the crude oil price. The year-to-year percentage change in 2014 was maintained for each year of the period 2015 to 2019 for each macro-economic variables used in FARM. 10-006-r 4 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 10-006-r 5 10-006-r 6 Macroeconomic assumptions ? The world population is expected to grow by slightly more than 1% per year. Growth in developing countries is anticipated to be almost three times higher than in the OECD and, as a result, the OECD share of world population should fall from 18.2 to 17.1%. ? World gross domestic product (GDP) growth has dropped from 3.8% in 2007 to 1.9% in 2008 and to -2.9% in 2009. The GDP of the OECD declined in 2009 for the first time in the postwar period by as much as 4%. World growth is expected to reach 2% in 2010 but around 1% for the OECD region as a whole. Growth of the developing economies should fall from 6% in 2008 to only 1% in 2009 followed by a 4.4% increase in 2010. Growth in China, Russia, South Africa and India is expected to be the strongest over the medium term. ? The inflation rate jumped to 3.6% in 2008 as the OECD economies absorbed the higher commodity prices. With their decline and the recession in 2009 inflation should fall to only 0.5% for the G7 in 2009 and remains below 2% for the remaining years of the outlook. Inflation will be much stronger in the emerging and developing economies. ? The U.S. dollar appreciated against major currencies in 2008 and/or 2009 with the exception of the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen. The 2009 economic crisis has resulted in a major depreciation of the Korean won, Russian ruble and Mexican peso. The exchange rate of Australia, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, India, the European Union and South Africa have depreciated by an average of 9% in 2009 against the U.S. dollar. Over the medium term no major appreciation or depreciation in real terms is assumed for most currencies. ? The price of crude oil is assumed to have fallen to 62 US$/barrel in 2009 and then rapidly return to 92 US$/bbl by 2012, followed by a gradual increase to 114 US$/barrel by 2019. 10-006-r 7 Foreign policies ? The mandatory country-of-origin labeling (COOL) was implemented on the 30th of September 2008 by the U.S. The new U.S. Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) will be in place as of the 2009 crop year. ? The mandatory 10% set-aside of arable land in the European Union has been eliminated over the entire outlook period. The gradual increase and the elimination of the milk production quota in the European Union is included in the outlook. ? A tax of 35% is imposed on Argentinean oilseed exports for the duration of the outlook. ? Russian grain exports are not affected by export taxes. ? China maintains value added taxes on grains traded and corn and wheat imports are much smaller than their respective TRQs. ? Mexican direct and procampo payments are assumed to be stable in real terms. ? Restrictions on Korean beef imports in relation to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) are eliminated. ? No trade restrictions from the H1N1 outbreak are assumed after 2009. 10-006-r 8 Biofuel markets ? It is assumed that all the yearly renewable fuel mandates announced by the U.S. in December 2007 will be at least reached over the outlook period except the cellulosic ethanol mandate and all the other measures will not be modified. ? By 2015 the U.S. will be consuming 56.7 billion liters of corn based ethanol and will be producing slightly more because Canada will be a net importer. ? According to the OECD, by 2018 the U.S. will be producing and consuming 5.5 billion liters of cellulosic ethanol which represents a huge increase but is much smaller than the target of 26.5 billion liters. Most of that production will be from crop residues. Ethanol from dedicated biomass like switchgrass will only start to grow after 2012. ? The bio-diesel mandate established at 3.78 billion liters will be met by 2012 and consumption will remain at that level after 2012. Most of the mandate will be filled by local production of which 25% will be from tallow and inedible animal fat. ? By 2018, 10.4 billion liters of ethanol will also be consumed under the other advanced biofuels mandate (10.4 represents 92% of the mandate). This quantity will initially be mostly from imports from the Caribbean of dehydrated Brazilian ethanol until it gradually reaches the tariff rate quota in 2016. The rest will be mostly filled by imports of ethanol from sugar cane produced in the Caribbean and Central American countries. ? Prices of other advanced biofuels will be higher than corn based ethanol because it will reflect the next lowest cost of producing ethanol in the U.S., i.e. from wheat. It will, however, not be high enough to allow direct imports from Brazil. The price of cellulosic ethanol will be even higher in spite of technological progress. ? The corn based ethanol mandate in the U.S. will be binding on a permanent basis sometime in 2010, and as a result blenders will be forced to increase the price of gasoline in order to finance losses on ethanol. In this situation the link between crude oil andcorn prices is weaker. ? The European Union fuel ethanol consumption mandate should increase significantly, following the implementation of the new Renewable Energy Directive which calls for a 10% share of renewable energy in the transport fuel mix by 2020. According to the OECD, it should reach 6.6% (energy basis) of gasoline-type transport fuels by 2018. Because of the increasing blending mandate, European Union biodiesel consumption should reach 22 billion liters by 2018. ? World biofuels production should increase from 86 billion liters in 2008 to 200 billion liters in 2019. 10-006-r 9 Highlights ? The worst world wide economic recession in the last 70 years and the sharp increase in world crop production in the last two years, resulting from the record prices of 2008, combined with favorable weather will lead to a further decline in world prices of grains and oilseeds in 2009-10. The anticipated economic recovery in 2010, a gradual return to a 100 US$/barrel crude oil price by 2015 and the large biofuel mandates in the U.S. and in the European Union will all contribute to new higher price plateau for vegetable oil, oilseeds, rice and coarse grains over the medium term compared to the period before 2006. ? The world economic recession had a severe negative impact on demand for meats. For pork that was exacerbated by the H1N1 outbreak. These factors have delayed the adjustment of red meat prices to the higher price of feed. As a result, the red meat producers of most countries around the world experienced another very difficult year in 2009. With the anticipated economic recovery in 2010 and a significant reduction in red meat supply, prices are expected to grow but not enough for a return to profitability. The next hog price peak should be reached in 2011 and 2012. The hog-corn price ratio should improve over the medium term compared to 2008 and 2009, but will not return to levels prevailing before the large increase in crop prices. This will also be the case for the steer-corn price ratio although farmers will be able to mitigate part of the cost increase by changing feeding practices (more short keep) and by using more distiller?s dried grains (DDG). The next peak in the U.S. cattle price cycle should be in 2013/15. U.S. poultry and eggs prices should adjust the most and the most rapidly to the higher cost since feed accounts for the largest proportion of variable cost and the production cycle is the shortest. ? After a large decline in 2009 resulting mostly from the financial and economic crisis, world prices of dairy products are expected to return to the positive trend started at the beginning of the century because of strong demand, production constraints in Oceania, higher cost of production and lower subsidized exports. At the end of the outlook period, prices should be lower than in 2008 but significantly higher than at the beginning of the century. World prices of chicken cuts have also fallen significantly in 2009 because of the financial and economic crisis. Supply should remain large in the medium term because of the recent depreciation of the Real and this will prevent strong increases in prices. 10-006-r 10 Stronger demand for corn is expected to lead to a new higher world price plateau in the medium term U.S. gulf price of #2 yellow corn . . gulf price of #2 yello corn U.S. gulf price of #2 yellow corn 240 240 240 220 220 220 200 200 200 180 180 180 160 160 160 Average 140 140 140 1990-2006 120 120 120 100 100 100 80 80 80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 11 ( U S $ / t ) ( U S $ / t ) ( U S $ / t ) Wheat prices should also reach a new plateau partly because of the substitution with coarse grains on the feed demand and supply side U.S. gulf price of #2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein . . lf rice f #2 ar re i ter eat, r i ary r tei U.S. gulf price of #2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein 350 350 350 300 300 300 250 250 250 200 Average 200 200 1990-2006 150 150 150 100 100 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 12 ( U S $ / t ) ( U S $ / t ) ( U S $ / t ) The growing demand for vegetable oils and the strong substitution on the supply side with corn should result in higher soybean prices U.S. farm price of soybeans . . far price of soybeans U.S. farm price of soybeans 400 400 400 350 350 350 300 300 300 Average 1990-2006 250 250 250 200 200 200 150 150 150 100 100 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 13 ( U S $ / t ) ( U S $ / t ) ( U S $ / t ) New higher world price plateau are also expected for further processed products Soybean oil, US (US$/t) Soybean meal, US (US$/t) 1,200 400 Average 350 1,000 1990-2006 Average 300 1990-2006 800 250 600 200 400 150 200 100 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Ethanol, Brazil (US$/hl) Refined sugar, London (US$/t) 60 550 500 Average 50 2000-2006 Average 450 1990-2006 400 40 350 30 300 250 20 200 10 150 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 10-006-r 14 The rise in the steer/corn price ratio will be delayed by the economic recession and the relationship between the feeder and the feed steer prices returns to historical level U.S. cattle prices . . cattle prices U.S. cattle prices 130 130 130 120 120 120 Feeder steer 110 110 110 100 100 100 90 90 90 Fed steer 80 80 80 70 70 70 Cow 60 60 60 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 10-006-r 15 ( U S $ / c w t l w ) ( U S $ / c w t l w ) ( U S $ / c w t l w ) The hog/corn price ratio should improve over the medium term compared to 2008 and 2009 but will not return to levels prevailing before the large increase in crop prices U.S. barrows and gilts, Iowa . . arr s a ilts, I a U.S. barrows and gilts, Iowa 80 80 80 70 70 70 Average 60 60 60 1990-2006 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 16 ( U S $ / c w t l w ) ( U S $ / c w t l w ) ( U S $ / c w t l w ) Livestock prices are expected to increase eventually as a result of increasing production cost caused by the higher feed prices U.S. prices . . prices U.S. prices Average 2006-2018 70% vs 2000-2005 70 70% Average 2011-2018 vs 2000-2005 60% 60 60% 50% 50 50% 40% 40 40% 30% 30 30% 20% 20 20% 10% 10 10% 0% 0 0% Feed Feed(1) Eggs Chicken Hogs Steers Milk ee ee (1) s icke s teers ilk Feed Feed(1) Eggs Chicken Hogs Steers Milk (1) Feed with DDG. 10-006-r 17 Because of strong demand, supply constraints in Oceania, higher cost of production and lower subsidized exports, world prices of dairy products should return to the positive trend recorded since 2000 Butter (US$/kg) Cheddar cheese (US$/kg) 5 5 Average 4 4 1990-2006 Average 1990-2006 3 3 2 2 1 1 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 SMP (US$/kg) WMP (US$/ kg ) 5 5 4 4 Average Average 1990-2006 1990-2006 3 3 2 2 1 1 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 10-006-r 18 NATIONAL MARKETS 10-006-r 19 10-006-r 20 National assumptions: Macroeconomic Outlook Year-to-year change in CPI Year-to-year change in real GDP 3.0 6 5 2.5 4 2.0 3 2 1.5 1 1.0 0 -1 0.5 -2 0.0 -3 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Canadian/US exchange rate Price of Brent crude oil 114 1.8 120.0 1.6 100.0 1.4 1.14 1.2 80.0 1.06 1.0 62 60.0 0.8 0.6 40.0 0.4 20.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1992199519982001200420072010201320162019 10-006-r 21 C d n $ / U S $ P e r c e n t U S $ / B a r r e l P e r c e n t National assumptions ? The Canadian population is projected to increase by 1% per year. ? Yields for grains and oilseeds are generally expected to increase at trend rates. ? It is assumed that the Federal regulations requiring an annual average renewable content of 5% in gasoline by 2010 and 2% in diesel fuel and heating oil by 2012 will be implemented. ? Ethanol plants that have planned to start production in 2009/10 and 2010/2011 are assumed to produce at industry average utilization rates when they come online. The by-product of ethanol production, dried distillers? grains (DDG), are assumed to be easily incorporated in feed rations. ? Implementation of the U.S. mandatory country-of-origin labeling program began on September 30, 2008. The potential costs to Canada are still not fully known, but in the outlook it is assumed that there will be a discount on the Canadian prices of fed cattle, feeder cattle, cows, slaughter hogs, and weanlings, as well as on wholesale beef and pork prices relative to the U.S. These discounts increase the basis between Canadian and U.S. prices. ? The moratorium on hog production in Manitoba is maintained over the entire outlook period. ? The cap on the hog stabilization program announced by Quebec at the end of 2009 is included in the Outlook. ? The increases in the price of industrial milk will be equally distributed to the support price of butter and skim milk powder. ? The fat/solids-not-fat ratio for raw milk should be relatively stable as measures implemented by producers are maintained. 10-006-r 22 Highlights: crops ? The key drivers of the Canadian outlook are world prices, the exchange rate, the expansion of bio-fuel production and the contraction of the red meat industry. ? With world crop production increasing as a result of recent high prices and decreasing demand caused by the economic crisis, world prices of grains and oilseeds are expected to fall significantly in 2009-10. ? For the medium term, prices of grains, oilseeds and special crops are projected to be significantly higher than the period before 2006 in spite of the anticipated appreciation of the Canadian dollar, albeit price levels are expected to be below the peak of 2007. In response, total harvested area is projected to increase compared to the historical average (2005-2009). The largest increase should be recorded for oilseeds followed by special crops and corn. Summer fallow area will continue to decline. ? In the short-term with livestock production decreasing and as area harvested of barley recovers from the drought in Alberta, Canada returns to a net export position for feed grains. However, in the medium term as prices favour wheat and oilseeds in the West and cattle production increases with an improvement in profitability, Canada returns to a net import position for feed grains. It should be noted that Canada?s net feed grain balance is relatively close to zero and any significant changes to production (yield or area harvested) or demand (food, feed or biofuel) could change Canada?s position. ? For Canada to meet its biofuel target, biofuel imports will have to remain large in spite of a rapid and strong expansion in production. Ethanol production in Western Canada is derived from wheat and corn, while Eastern Canada uses solely corn as a feedstock. ? Canola crushing capacity is expected to expand, but strong production growth in medium term still leads to large exports. The larger use of canola oil for biodiesel production remains much smaller than the growth in production, leading to a strong increase in canola oil exports. 10-006-r 23 Canadian prices in the medium term will be lower than the latest spike but do reach a higher plateau than the historical average Crop prices r rices Crop prices 600 600 600 500 500 Canola 500 400 400 400 300 300 300 Wheat 200 200 200 Barley Corn 100 100 100 0 0 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 24 $ / t $ / t $ / t Higher grain and oilseed prices are expected to result in a modest expansion in total area and relative prices should lead to large increases of canola, corn, and soybeans Difference in area harvested between the average of 2005-2009 and 2019 ifference in area harvested bet een the average of 2005-2009 and 2019 Difference in area harvested between the average of 2005-2009 and 2019 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 -10 -10 -10 -20 -20 -20 -30 -30 -30 -40 -40 -40 Total Hay Fallow Wheat Barley Soybeans Corn Oats S. crops Canola Total ay Fallo heat arley oybeans orn ats . crops anola Total Hay Fallow Wheat Barley Soybeans Corn Oats S. crops Canola 10-006-r 25 P e r c e n t P e r c e n t P e r c e n t Total feed use/total livestock production Total feed use/total livestock production Total feed use/total livestock production DDG displacement of coarse grains in feed demand is expected to increase with Canadian ethanol production. Small productivity gains in feed conversion are expected throughout the baseline Feed demand ee e a Feed demand 25 8 25 8 25 8 7 7 7 20 20 20 6 6 6 Coarse grain 5 5 5 15 15 15 4 4 4 10 10 10 Feed/Livestock 3 3 3 2 Wheat 2 2 5 5 5 1 1 1 Protein DDG 0 0 0 0 0 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 26 F e e d g r a i n c o n s u m p t i o n ( m i l t ) F e e d g r a i n c o n s u m p t i o n ( m i l t ) F e e d g r a i n c o n s u m p t i o n ( m i l t ) Relatively strong wheat prices supports faster growth in wheat production than domestic consumption resulting in stronger wheat exports Wheat exports and utilization eat ex rts a tilizati Wheat exports and utilization 30 30 30 25 25 25 Exports 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 Ethanol Food 5 5 5 Other Feed 0 0 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 27 M i l l i o n t o n n e s M i l l i o n t o n n e s M i l l i o n t o n n e s For Canada to meet its biofuels target, imports will have to remain large despite rapid growth in production capacity Biofuels production and net trade i f els r cti a et tra e Biofuels production and net trade 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,000 3,000 3,000 Biodiesel net imports 2,500 2,500 2,500 Production of biodiesel 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 Production of ethanol 1,000 1,000 1,000 500 500 500 Ethanol net imports 0 0 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 28 M i l l i o n l i t r e s M i l l i o n l i t r e s M i l l i o n l i t r e s Net trade (million tonnes) Net trade (million tonnes) Net trade (million tonnes) In the short-term as livestock production decreases and feed grain production increases, Canada returns to a small feed grain surplus. Canada returns to a net import position of feed grains in 2016 as crop prices favour oilseeds over coarse grains and meat production increases Feed grain market Feed grain arket Feed grain market 1.4 8 1.4 8 1.4 8 Net exports et exports Net exports Corn price ratio r rice rati 1.3 Co 6rn price ratio 1.3 6 1.3 6 Barley price ratio arley price ratio Barley price ratio 1.2 4 1.2 4 1.2 4 1.1 2 1.1 2 1.1 2 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 0 0.9 -2 0.9 -2 0.9 -2 0.8 -4 0.8 -4 0.8 -4 0.7 -6 0.7 -6 0.7 -6 0.6 -8 0.6 -8 0.6 -8 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 10-006-r 29 R a t i o ( C d n . P r i c e a n d U S c o r n p r i c e ) R a t i o ( C d n . P r i c e a n d U S c o r n p r i c e ) R a t i o ( C d n . P r i c e a n d U S c o r n p r i c e ) Although canola production increases significantly, continued investment in crush capacity causes exports of canola to remain relatively stable until 2015 when relative increases in canola prices spurs further growth in production Canola exports and utilization anola exports and utilization Canola exports and utilization 9 9 9 8 8 8 Crush 7 7 7 Exports 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 Other use 0 0 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 30 M i l l i o n t o n n e s M i l l i o n t o n n e s M i l l i o n t o n n e s Highlights: red meats ? Relatively high feed grain prices coupled with low prices for hogs and steers, the implementation of COOL in the USA and the elimination of the program for specified risk material in cattle creates challenges for the red meat sectors and affects the competitiveness of the Canadian industry. ? In 2009, the cattle breeding herd reached its lowest level since 1999 and no increase is expected until 2011. As a result, the marketings of cattle initially remains relatively low, but then starts increasing again in 2013. Cattle slaughter will also edge down in the short-term as the anticipated appreciation of the Canadian dollar still adversely affect slaughter margins. In the medium term, slaughter will recover to stabilize at a relatively high level as COOL exerts more downward pressure on livestock prices than meat prices resulting in improved slaughter margins in Canada. With lower marketings and higher slaughter, exports of slaughter cattle decrease and are substantially lower than historical levels. ? The Federal Cull Breeding Swine Program (ended in 2009), the Hog Farm Transition Program coupled with significant changes to the Québec ASRA program and tight margins are all contributing to a lower swine herd in the short term before stabilizing in the medium term. Slaughter hog marketings will follow a cycle but from a lower base. Hog slaughter decreases slightly in the short term because of low margins before stabilizing in 2013. In general the profitability of hog farming will be lower than hog processingover the medium term and this will lead to lower export of slaughter hogs compared to historical average. In addition to these factors, the moratorium on hog production in Manitoba (largest weanling exporter) and COOL will also reduce weanling exports to the U.S. 10-006-r 31 The implementation of COOL and the strong Canadian dollar are leading to a drop in total cattle exports, especially in the short term. As Canada returns to a feed grain deficit in the medium term feeder cattle exports are expected to increase Net cattle exports et cattle exports Net cattle exports 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 Net export of slaughter cattle 600 600 600 400 400 400 Net export 200 200 200 of feeder cattle 0 0 0 -200 -200 -200 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 10-006-r 32 ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s The marketing of slaughter cattle will not fall as much as the breeding herd because feeder cattle exports will be lower than the historical peak Cattle market attle arket Cattle market 6,000 6,000 6,000 Breeding herd 5,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 Net cattle exports 3,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Cattle slaughter 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 10-006-r 33 ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s '000 head '000 head '000 head Hog production margins will continue to be cyclical but from a lower base and this will lead to a contraction in total marketings of slaughter and weanlings Hog marketings arketi s Hog marketings 60 35,000 60 35,000 60 35,000 50 50 50 30,000 30,000 30,000 Total marketings 40 40 40 25,000 25,000 25,000 30 30 30 Margin 20,000 20,000 20 20,000 20 20 10 10 10 15,000 15,000 15,000 0 0 0 10,000 10,000 10,000 -10 -10 -10 5,000 5,000 5,000 -20 -20 -20 -30 0 -30 0 -30 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 34 $ / c k g d w $ / c k g d w $ / c k g d w COOL and the strong Canadian dollar are leading to a large decline in slaughter hog and weaner exports. In addition, relatively high feed grain prices in Canada is also contributing to the reduction in marketing and exports of slaughter hog Slaughter hog and weanling exports la ter a ea li ex rts Slaughter hog and weanling exports 8,000 8,000 8,000 Slaugher hogs la er s Slaugher hogs 7,000 7,000 7,000 Weaners eaners Weaners 6,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 10-006-r 35 ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s The loss in the wage advantage because of the stronger dollar will contribute to the reduction in slaughter in the short term and limits capacity expansion in the medium term US and CDN wages in meat packing industries and ages in eat packing industries US and CDN wages in meat packing industries 1,100 1,100 1,100 US wages in CDN$ (XR=1.5) 1,000 1,000 1,000 900 900 900 CDN wages 800 800 800 700 700 700 600 600 600 US wages in CDN$ 500 500 500 400 400 400 300 300 300 200 200 200 100 100 100 0 0 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 10-006-r 36 $ p e r w e e k $ p e r w e e k $ p e r w e e k As domestic beef consumption remains relatively stable, the small increase in cattle slaughter in the medium term leads to a slight increase in exports Beef market eef arket Beef market 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,200 Net exports 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 600 600 600 Canadian beef disappearance 400 400 400 200 200 200 0 0 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 10-006-r 37 k t k t k t The additional pork production resulting from higher average weights of slaughter hogs will be mostly consumed abroad Pork market rk arket Pork market 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,400 Exports 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 600 600 600 Canadian pork 400 400 400 disappearance 200 200 200 0 0 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 10-006-r 38 k t k t k t Highlights: supply managed commodities ? Growth in consumption of poultry is expected to be lower than in the past because the market is more mature and poultry prices are expected to increase relative to substitute meats. The growth in population is expected to offset the slight drop in per capita consumption of eggs resulting in higher production. Because of the significant drop in the price of eggs in the U.S. in 2009, the levy to finance the use of Canadian eggs by the breaker industry should continue to increase. ? Total milk production in 2009/10 is expected to be slightly higher than the previous year. However, a downward adjustment is expected in 2010/2011 to liquidate the high stocks. While there is growth in per capita consumption for some dairy products, it is decreasing for others. As a result, per capita consumption of overall milk fat is stable and total milk production is expected to follow growth in population. ? Although recently world prices have dropped significantly, no over-quota imports are expected since they are still high relative to the historical period and the Canadian dollar should only appreciate moderately over the outlook. ? The skim milk powder (SMP) surplus is expected to slowly decrease over the projection period, but still remains a deteriorating factor in the milk pool price. The special use of SMP through 4m class remains very important and represents on average about 55% of the consumption. Finally, exports are projected to remain relatively stable since no major changes in the gap between world and domestic prices are expected. 10-006-r 39 Growth in poultry demand is expected to be slower than in the past because the market is more mature and poultry prices are expected to increase relative to substitute meats Yearly average increase in consumption early average increase in consu ption Yearly average increase in consumption 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 2001-05 2006-10 2011-19 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 2001-05 2006-10 2011-19 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 2001-05 2006-10 2011-19 10-006-r 40 P e r c e n t c h a n g e P e r c e n t c h a n g e P e r c e n t c h a n g e Because of the significant drop (-48%) in the price of eggs in the U.S. in 2009, the levy to finance the use of Canadian eggs by the breaker industry should continue to increase Egg levy levy Egg levy 40 40 40 35 35 35 30 30 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Levy includes administrative cost. 10-006-r 41 C e n t s / d o z e n C e n t s / d o z e n C e n t s / d o z e n With moderate increases, Canadian prices of dairy products are expected to remain below landed import prices Butter prices SMP prices $14 $12 Import $12 $10 Import $10 $8 Canadian $8 Canadian $6 $6 $4 World $4 World $2 $2 $0 $0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 10-006-r 42 C D N $ / k g C D N $ / k g With a mature market characterized by a growing aging population, per capita consumption of dairy products will either continue to fall or increase less rapidly, except for butter Yearly average changes between early average changes bet een Yearly average changes between the outlook (2009-19) and the historical (1999-08) period the outlook (2009-19) and the historical (1999-08) period the outlook (2009-19) and the historical (1999-08) period 8 8 8 7 7 1999-2008 7 1999-2008 1999-2008 6 2009-2019 6 2009-2019 6 2009-2019 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 Fluid Cream Yogurt Ice cream Butter Cheese Fluid rea ogurt Ice crea utter heese Fluid Cream Yogurt Ice cream Butter Cheese 10-006-r 43 P e r c e n t P e r c e n t P e r c e n t In the absence of climatic incidents the 2009 food inflation will not repeat itself as it will vary between 1% and 2% in the medium term Annual change in the food CPI nnual change in the food I Annual change in the food CPI 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 10-006-r 44 P e r c e n t P e r c e n t P e r c e n t High prices of grains and oilseeds will contribute to a strong positive trade balance Trade of agricultural and agri-food commodities ra e f a ric lt ral a a ri-f c ities Trade of agricultural and agri-food commodities 50 50 50 45 45 45 Exports 40 x rts 40 Exports 40 Trade balance ra e ala ce Trade balance 35 35 35 Imports I rts Imports 30 30 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10-006-r 45 B i l l i o n o f C D N $ B i l l i o n o f C D N $ B i l l i o n o f C D N $ List of acronyms AAFC Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada ACRE Average Crop Revenue Election AGLINK/COSIMO The OECD/FAO international agricultural markets model ASRA Farm Income Stabilisation Insurance Program (Financière agricole du Québec) BSE Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (a.k.a. Mad Cow Disease) CKG 100 kilograms COOL Country of Origin Labeling (U.S. acronym COOL) CWT 100 pounds DDG Distillers? dried grains DW Dressed weight FAO Food and Agriculture Organization (United Nations) FARM Food and Agriculture Regional Model GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund LW Live weight OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development SMP Skim Milk Powder USDA United States Department of Agriculture WMP Whole Milk Powder 10-006-r 46 ANNEX OF TABLES 10-006-r 47 10-006-r 48 TABLE 1: International prices Table 1: International prices Average %Chg. 2019: Average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2019 Crops Wheat Price, 1HRW, US Gulf (US$/t) 153.1 181.8 213.6 363.0 257.5 206.3 203.9 218.0 225.8 229.5 233.0 236.2 235.2 234.3 238.2 242.1 244.5 -1.0% 1.9% Wheat Price, 1HAD, Minneapolis (US$/t) 141.4 127.1 162.8 363.7 367.4 220.8 196.4 209.9 217.4 221.0 224.4 227.5 226.5 225.7 229.4 233.2 248.4 -6.1% 1.9% PPI of flour, USA (1982=100) 134.9 139.8 149.8 201.3 186.6 171.3 161.4 163.7 167.3 169.0 170.6 172.2 172.2 172.3 174.1 176.0 169.8 3.7% 1.0% 1 PPI of bakery & pasta, USA (1982=100) 196.3 201.1 207.7 216.6 237.5 235.9 236.7 239.7 245.9 251.1 255.2 258.7 261.3 263.1 264.8 266.6 219.8 21.3% 1.3% Barley Price, 2 Feed, Portland (US$/t) 111.8 119.7 178.3 287.9 187.7 181.0 188.3 193.8 189.1 190.9 196.3 195.5 190.9 190.5 191.9 193.8 190.9 1.5% 0.3% Corn, No. 2 Yellow, Central Illinois (US$/t) 82.5 87.0 138.5 201.9 154.2 132.9 145.2 155.8 153.1 156.0 161.3 160.5 155.9 155.6 156.0 156.8 142.9 9.7% 0.9% Soybean Price, Central Illinois (US$/t) 218.9 212.9 265.6 461.4 376.1 333.7 296.7 315.9 372.5 359.2 355.9 371.8 383.2 381.3 388.8 389.5 329.9 18.1% 3.1% Soymeal Price, Decatur (US$/t) 204.6 191.9 226.5 368.5 363.3 274.4 262.7 274.8 314.7 305.8 303.1 315.3 322.7 320.8 328.9 336.7 284.9 18.2% 2.8% Soyoil Price, Decatur (US$/t) 489.7 520.7 681.9 1175.3 786.1 805.5 863.3 859.8 897.3 903.1 904.7 926.9 954.8 968.3 989.4 1011.0 793.9 27.3% 1.8% Refined Sugar Price, London (US$/t) 275.0 404.5 328.6 342.7 429.0 503.1 394.7 367.9 368.5 361.3 367.3 377.8 394.8 405.1 418.3 431.4 401.6 7.4% 1.0% Livestock Slaughter Steer Price, Nebraska (US$/cwt lw) 84.3 87.2 85.5 92.0 92.5 82.5 88.8 89.2 91.2 94.8 95.4 95.2 92.3 88.3 88.0 91.5 87.9 4.0% 0.3% Feeder Calf Price, Oklahoma (US$/cwt lw) 111.3 118.3 114.3 112.3 105.3 99.2 106.4 107.2 105.7 107.7 108.9 108.9 106.4 102.7 103.1 107.1 109.9 -2.5% 0.1% Commercial cows, Sioux Falls (US$/cwt lw) 54.5 56.6 52.1 49.6 60.1 59.4 63.3 63.0 62.3 63.5 63.6 63.0 60.7 57.7 57.4 59.5 55.6 7.1% -0.7% Wholesale of hide, Central USA (US$/cwt) 43.6 41.7 37.4 46.3 54.1 35.2 40.1 43.5 43.3 42.9 42.5 42.2 41.9 41.6 41.3 41.5 42.9 -3.2% 0.4% Wholesale boxed beef choice, 140.7 145.8 146.8 149.8 153.2 137.8 147.0 147.3 151.0 157.3 159.0 159.4 155.8 150.6 151.1 157.3 146.7 7.2% 0.8% Central US (US$/cwt) Wholesale canner-cutter cows, Central US (US$/cwt) 91.7 97.0 92.3 94.6 98.6 99.2 104.6 103.8 103.2 105.5 106.2 106.0 103.1 99.1 99.3 103.3 96.4 7.2% -0.1% Barrow & Gilt, Iowa, (US$/cwt lw) 52.5 50.1 47.3 47.1 47.8 39.4 45.4 55.8 60.3 55.2 50.8 62.3 62.1 50.6 52.8 54.9 46.3 18.5% 2.1% Wholesale price of pork, US (US$/cwt) 91.8 86.7 82.9 81.9 82.2 68.5 83.0 96.1 102.1 95.9 90.8 105.8 106.1 92.0 95.4 98.7 80.4 22.7% 1.9% Butter Price, FOB Oceania (US$/t) 179 213 177 294 365 212 217 231 267 277 285 286 289 290 295 299 252.3 18.4% 3.6% Skim Milk Powder Price, FOB Oceania (US$/t) 202 222 221 432 333 213 225 234 251 258 265 266 269 271 273 274 284.3 -3.6% 2.2% Cheddar Cheese Price, FOB Oceania (US$/100 kg) 261 284 268 402 468 277 282 288 305 316 326 331 336 340 345 351 339.8 3.3% 2.5% Biofuels Ethanol Price, US (US$/hl) 45 48 68 59 65 45 52 57 57 60 63 65 64 65 66 66 57.2 15.9% 2.7% Ethanol Price, Brazil (US$/hl) 23 35 46 41 46 38 42 44 46 46 47 48 51 52 54 54 41.2 32.1% 3.0% Biodiesel Price, Central Europe (US$/hl) 85 87 93 103 145 121 128 123 132 132 133 137 142 144 145 145 109.6 32.5% 1.4% Historical Data Sources: AAFC FARM database; Forecast Data Source: OECD-FAO Outlook Notes: 1. Calendar year basis. 10-006-r 49 TABLE 2: Canadian macroeconomy Table 2: Canadian macroeconomy Average %Chg. 2019: Average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2019 Population (mil) 32.0 32.4 32.7 33.1 33.5 33.8 34.1 34.5 34.9 35.3 35.6 36.0 36.4 36.8 37.3 37.7 33.1 13.9% 1.1% Gross Domestic Product (mil 2002$) 1211239 1247807 1283419 1315907 1321360 1288235 1330762 1378939 1437314 1485757 1528570 1572624 1617947 1664576 1712549 1761905 1291345 36.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% -2.5% 3.3% 3.6% 4.2% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% GDP Deflator (2002=100) 106.6 110.1 112.9 116.5 121.1 118.8 121.0 123.7 126.5 129.5 132.4 135.3 138.3 141.4 144.5 147.7 115.9 27.5% 2.2% 3.2% 3.3% 2.6% 3.2% 4.0% -1.9% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% Per Capita Disposable Income ($) 23736 24550 26081 27153 28418 28632 29154 30045 31053 32157 33141 34157 35204 36283 37395 38541 26967.0 42.9% 3.2% 4.5% 3.4% 6.2% 4.1% 4.7% 0.8% 1.8% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% Average Weekly Wages ($) 699.0 725.5 741.8 775.2 793.1 800.8 812.8 827.4 848.1 867.2 884.5 900.0 913.5 927.2 941.1 955.2 767.3 24.5% 1.8% 2.4% 3.8% 2.2% 4.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Consumer Price Indices All Items 104.7 107.0 109.1 111.5 114.1 114.4 116.9 119.7 122.4 125.0 127.5 130.1 132.7 135.4 138.2 141.0 111.2 26.8% 2.1% 1.9% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 0.3% 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Non-food, Non-energy 103.9 105.3 106.9 109.0 110.3 111.5 113.7 116.8 119.5 122.0 124.5 127.1 129.9 132.7 135.6 138.4 108.6 27.5% 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 1.2% 1.1% 2.0% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% Energy 115.2 126.3 132.8 135.9 149.3 129.2 133.1 137.1 141.2 145.4 149.8 154.3 158.9 163.7 168.6 173.6 134.7 28.9% 3.0% 6.8% 9.7% 5.2% 2.3% 9.8% -13.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Food 103.8 106.4 108.9 111.8 115.7 121.4 123.6 125.0 127.4 129.3 131.3 133.2 134.6 135.8 137.5 139.2 112.9 23.4% 1.3% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 3.5% 4.9% 1.8% 1.2% 1.9% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% Industrial Product Price Indices Petroleum & Coal 161.77 199.91 218.06 230.38 289.48 206.49 237.59 256.41 277.39 282.34 287.64 292.93 298.64 304.42 310.31 316.31 228.9 38.2% 3.2% 16.8% 23.6% 9.1% 5.7% 25.7% -28.7% 15.1% 7.9% 8.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Wood 87.64 78.45 72.29 66.80 63.39 62.85 66.04 67.95 69.68 71.50 73.23 75.00 76.81 78.67 80.58 82.53 68.8 20.0% 2.5% 17.4% -10.5% -7.9% -7.6% -5.1% -0.9% 5.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% Autos & Parts 100.17 94.04 88.10 83.48 83.25 88.16 89.19 91.12 93.02 94.84 96.50 98.19 99.91 101.66 103.44 105.25 87.4 20.4% 1.9% -6.4%-6.1%-6.3%-5.2%-0.3%5.9%1.2%2.%2.1%2.0%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8% Machinery 111.48 112.94 111.10 108.93 111.04 120.83 121.09 123.63 126.34 129.18 132.50 135.91 139.37 142.92 146.56 150.29 113.0 33.0% 2.4% 0.5% 1.3% -1.6% -2.0% 1.9% 8.8% 0.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Interest Rates (%) Prime Lending Rate 4.0 4.4 5.8 6.1 4.7 2.3 2.5 5.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 4.7 38.9% 11.3% Exchange Rate $Cdn./$U.S. 1.30 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.07 1.14 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.1 -6.3% -0.4% $U.S./$Cdn. 0.77 0.83 0.88 0.93 0.94 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.9 6.5% 0.4% Average Grain Freight Rate, Mid prairies to port ($/t) 34.71 35.06 38.09 41.98 43.03 40.50 40.50 41.00 41.50 42.00 42.50 43.00 43.50 44.00 44.50 45.00 39.7 13.3% 1.2% W. TEXAS INT. OIL PRICE US$ per barrel 41.44 56.47 66.08 72.26 99.68 62.17 77.42 85.95 95.55 98.38 100.82 103.24 105.93 108.67 111.47 114.34 71.3 60.3% 4.4% Historical Data Sources: Statistics Canada - CANSIM; Conference Board of Canada - Medium Term Forecast Forecast Data Source: Conference Board of Canada - Extrapolation of Medium Term Forecast 10-006-r 50 TABLE 3: Canadian grain and oilseed summary (crop year) Table 3: Canadian grain and oilseed summary (crop year) Average %Chg. 2019: Average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2019 Crop Area Harvested (Mha) 36.53 37.23 37.38 37.94 38.09 36.40 38.16 38.23 38.30 38.36 38.43 38.49 38.56 38.63 38.69 38.76 37.4 3.6% 0.2% Wheat 9.39 9.40 9.68 8.64 10.03 9.54 10.15 9.95 10.20 9.61 9.94 9.98 9.91 9.83 9.88 9.96 9.5 5.3% -0.2% 1 Coarse Grains 6.42 6.24 6.11 7.39 6.33 5.24 6.03 6.40 6.43 6.31 6.16 6.28 6.26 6.15 6.19 6.19 6.3 -1.2% 0.3% 2 Oilseeds 6.56 7.07 7.22 7.97 8.32 8.11 8.57 8.44 8.19 8.97 8.80 8.68 8.87 9.19 9.26 9.34 7.7 20.7% 1.0% 3 Special Crops (Western Canada) 2.66 2.57 2.20 2.58 2.75 2.89 2.86 3.01 3.06 3.05 2.96 2.92 2.90 2.89 2.87 2.84 2.6 9.5% -0.1% Hay (Seeded Area) 8.02 8.16 8.67 8.24 8.20 8.17 8.07 7.99 8.00 8.11 8.25 8.33 8.35 8.33 8.27 8.22 8.3 -0.8% 0.2% Summerfallow 3.48 3.79 3.49 3.12 2.46 2.46 2.47 2.44 2.42 2.31 2.31 2.30 2.26 2.24 2.23 2.20 3.1 -28.0% -1.3% Production, Domestic Use & Export Summary (Mt) Wheat Production 24.80 25.75 25.27 20.05 28.61 26.51 28.44 28.21 29.02 27.36 28.50 28.85 28.77 28.67 28.98 29.36 25.2 16.3% 0.4% Domestic Use 8.06 8.30 8.70 6.68 7.88 8.13 8.57 8.62 8.74 8.78 8.75 8.81 8.96 9.01 9.05 9.11 7.9 14.7% 0.7% Exports 14.81 15.70 19.43 15.86 18.61 18.00 19.06 20.02 20.07 18.78 19.60 19.95 19.68 19.63 19.93 20.28 17.5 15.8% 0.7% 1 Coarse Grains Production 25.60 24.94 23.14 27.84 27.18 22.37 25.21 26.74 27.06 26.82 26.48 27.05 27.08 26.77 27.06 27.20 25.1 8.4% 0.9% Domestic Use 21.06 20.80 22.49 21.98 20.84 20.77 21.60 21.64 21.78 21.96 21.78 21.95 22.53 22.52 22.58 22.68 21.4 6.1% 0.5% Exports 3.89 5.22 4.81 7.82 5.21 4.51 5.20 5.85 6.10 5.84 5.74 5.79 5.58 5.49 5.64 5.77 5.5 4.6% 1.2% 2 Oilseeds Production 11.23 13.63 13.45 12.93 16.84 16.26 16.72 16.56 16.21 17.87 17.67 17.55 18.07 18.83 19.10 19.41 14.6 32.7% 1.7% Domestic Use 5.73 5.93 6.22 6.29 6.58 7.42 8.43 8.82 8.76 8.95 9.13 9.32 9.56 9.79 10.01 10.32 6.5 59.1% 2.3% Exports 5.00 7.26 7.90 8.04 10.38 8.40 9.01 8.16 8.27 9.11 8.94 8.73 8.96 9.39 9.50 9.47 8.4 12.8% 0.6% Historical Data Sources: Statistics Canada - CANSIM Notes: 1. Coarse Grains consists of Barley, Corn, Oats, Rye and Mixed Grains. 2. Oilseeds consists of Canola, Soybeans and Flaxseed 3. Special Crops consists of Canary Seed, Mustard Seed, Lentils, Dry Peas, Sunflower and Chickpeas. 10-006-r 51 TABLE 4: Canadian wheat (crop year) Table 4: Canadian wheat (crop year) Average %Chg. 2019: Average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2019 All Wheat Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 9.39 9.40 9.68 8.64 10.03 9.54 10.15 9.95 10.20 9.61 9.94 9.98 9.91 9.83 9.88 9.96 9.5 5.3% -0.2% Yield (t/ha) 2.64 2.74 2.61 2.32 2.85 2.78 2.80 2.84 2.85 2.85 2.87 2.89 2.90 2.92 2.93 2.95 2.7 10.8% 0.6% Production 24.80 25.75 25.27 20.05 28.61 26.51 28.44 28.21 29.02 27.36 28.50 28.85 28.77 28.67 28.98 29.36 25.2 16.3% 0.4% Food Use 2.96 2.99 2.96 2.86 2.73 2.80 2.99 2.87 2.94 2.96 2.98 3.00 3.02 3.05 3.08 3.12 2.9 8.7% 0.4% Use for Ethanol 0.13 0.18 0.41 0.39 1.04 1.15 1.38 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.46 0.6 130.1% 0.6% Feed Use 3.98 4.15 4.45 2.38 3.06 3.17 3.24 3.31 3.35 3.38 3.33 3.38 3.50 3.53 3.54 3.56 3.4 3.5% 1.1% Other Domestic Use 0.98 0.98 0.88 1.05 1.05 1.01 0.95 0.96 0.99 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 1.0 -2.4% 0.2% Exports 14.81 15.70 19.43 15.86 18.61 18.00 19.06 20.02 20.07 18.78 19.60 19.95 19.68 19.63 19.93 20.28 17.5 15.8% 0.7% Ending Stocks 7.92 9.70 6.87 4.41 6.56 7.00 7.86 7.47 7.73 7.57 7.76 7.89 8.06 8.13 8.17 8.19 6.9 18.6% 0.5% 1 CWB Final Price, #1 CWRS ($/t) 196 186 209 369 294 227 225 238 244 247 251 254 252 251 255 258 257.1 0.5% 1.6% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 88 88 113 194 175 130 127 137 141 143 145 146 144 143 145 147 139.9 5.0% 1.6% Milling Price ($/t) 213 220 235 430 337 250 247 261 269 272 276 279 278 276 280 284 294.4 -3.4% 1.6% Durum Wheat Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 2.05 2.28 1.52 1.93 2.42 2.23 2.25 2.03 2.18 2.30 2.34 2.27 2.28 2.30 2.34 2.36 2.1 13.8% 0.6% Yield (t/ha) 2.34 2.60 2.21 1.91 2.28 2.42 2.43 2.43 2.44 2.44 2.45 2.45 2.46 2.46 2.47 2.47 2.3 8.2% 0.2% Production 4.80 5.91 3.35 3.68 5.52 5.40 5.45 4.95 5.30 5.61 5.73 5.55 5.59 5.65 5.76 5.83 4.8 22.2% 0.8% Food & Industrial Use 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.2 14.7% 0.0% Other Domestic Use 0.62 0.61 0.63 0.72 0.57 0.65 0.67 0.63 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.6 8.5% 0.3% Exports 3.22 4.27 4.48 3.17 3.64 3.70 4.30 4.50 4.32 4.59 4.80 4.63 4.56 4.63 4.79 4.89 3.9 26.9% 1.4% Ending Stocks 2.49 3.27 1.26 0.82 1.90 2.70 2.89 2.46 2.51 2.59 2.57 2.54 2.62 2.69 2.70 2.68 2.0 34.6% -0.9% 1 CWB Final Price, #1 CWAD ($/t) 210 189 223 510 365 249 238 250 256 258 261 264 263 261 265 268 307.0 -12.8% 1.3% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 95 82 104 250 207 130 124 132 136 138 140 142 141 140 142 145 154.7 -6.4% 1.8% Historical Data Sources: Statistics Canada - Cereals & Oilseeds Review, Catalogue 22-007; Statistics Canada - CANSIM; Statistics Canada - Farm Product Price Book; Canadian Wheat Board - Annual Report; Canada Grain Council - Statistical Handbook; GRIP calculations Note: 1. Prior to 1995 CWB Final Prices are basis Thunder Bay, thereafter basis St. Lawrence 10-006-r 52 TABLE 5: Canadian coarse grains (crop year) Table 5: Canadian coarse grains (crop year) Average %Chg. 2019: Average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2019 Barley Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 3.84 3.63 3.22 4.00 3.50 2.92 3.48 3.62 3.62 3.58 3.41 3.50 3.51 3.43 3.46 3.46 3.5 0.0% -0.1% Yield (t/ha) 3.27 3.21 2.97 2.75 3.36 3.26 3.13 3.15 3.17 3.18 3.20 3.21 3.23 3.25 3.26 3.28 3.1 5.3% 0.5% Production 12.56 11.68 9.57 10.98 11.78 9.52 10.90 11.42 11.46 11.40 10.90 11.25 11.32 11.13 11.28 11.33 10.7 5.8% 0.4% Feed Use 8.81 8.40 8.83 6.57 7.70 7.38 7.28 7.40 7.46 7.51 7.39 7.46 7.73 7.72 7.71 7.73 7.8 -0.6% 0.7% Other Domestic Use 0.63 0.49 0.58 0.49 0.47 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.5 8.9% 0.6% Exports 1.86 2.98 2.01 3.91 2.38 2.30 3.00 3.33 3.47 3.37 3.17 3.16 2.96 2.88 3.00 3.08 2.7 13.4% 0.3% Ending Stocks 3.44 3.29 1.49 1.57 2.84 2.20 2.33 2.53 2.53 2.51 2.33 2.43 2.54 2.54 2.59 2.59 2.3 13.5% 1.1% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 79 65 106 167 184 133 140 140 129 130 137 134 130 128 128 128 131.1 -2.2% -1.0% Off-Board Barley Price, Lethbridge ($/t) 112 110 165 214 179 173 180 180 169 170 177 174 170 168 168 168 168.0 0.2% -0.8% 1 CWB Final Price, Select CW 2Row ($/t) 180 168 202 298 314 243 251 251 241 243 251 249 245 245 246 247 245.0 0.7% -0.2% Corn Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 1.07 1.08 1.06 1.37 1.17 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.31 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.2 11.0% 0.5% Yield (t/ha) 8.24 8.60 8.47 8.51 9.06 8.09 8.59 8.63 8.67 8.71 8.75 8.78 8.82 8.86 8.90 8.94 8.5 4.5% 0.4% Production 8.84 9.33 8.99 11.65 10.59 9.56 10.68 11.19 11.38 11.41 11.46 11.61 11.57 11.49 11.58 11.64 10.0 16.1% 1.0% Imports 2.42 1.90 2.09 3.18 1.86 2.00 2.31 1.72 1.60 1.64 1.51 1.49 1.84 1.89 1.89 1.91 2.2 -13.5% -2.1% West 0.73 0.71 0.70 2.30 0.83 0.50 0.95 0.85 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.59 0.55 1.0 -45.1% -5.9% East 1.69 1.19 1.39 0.89 1.04 1.50 1.36 0.87 0.86 0.89 0.75 0.80 1.18 1.25 1.29 1.36 1.2 13.0% 0.0% Feed Use 7.96 8.50 8.46 10.22 7.59 7.40 7.97 7.75 7.87 7.89 7.78 7.81 8.07 8.07 8.07 8.08 8.4 -4.2% 0.2% West 0.60 0.77 0.93 2.32 0.88 0.84 1.23 1.09 1.00 0.99 1.01 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.88 0.85 1.1 -25.6% -4.0% East 7.36 7.73 7.53 7.90 6.72 6.57 6.74 6.66 6.87 6.90 6.76 6.85 7.13 7.15 7.18 7.23 7.3 -0.8% 0.8% Use for Ethanol 0.34 0.45 0.98 1.45 1.99 2.06 2.56 2.73 2.68 2.76 2.83 2.88 2.91 2.88 2.94 2.99 1.4 115.6% 1.7% Other Domestic Use 1.62 1.40 1.55 1.69 1.70 1.80 1.67 1.62 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.65 1.67 1.69 1.71 1.73 1.6 6.3% 0.4% Exports 0.23 0.24 0.29 0.91 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.4 -27.6% 0.0% Ending Stocks 1.80 2.00 1.34 1.46 1.86 1.40 1.45 1.51 1.58 1.60 1.59 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.64 1.65 1.6 2.6% 1.4% Elevator Price, Chatham ($/t) 100 96 138 180 167 143 151 159 155 158 162 161 158 157 157 158 144.9 9.2% 0.5% Oats Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 1.23 1.27 1.54 1.82 1.45 0.95 1.12 1.29 1.31 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.27 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.4 -10.3% 1.3% Yield (t/ha) 2.81 2.58 2.51 2.59 2.95 2.95 2.81 2.83 2.85 2.87 2.89 2.92 2.94 2.96 2.98 3.00 2.7 10.5% 0.7% Production 3.47 3.28 3.85 4.70 4.27 2.80 3.14 3.66 3.74 3.53 3.65 3.73 3.72 3.69 3.74 3.78 3.8 0.0% 2.1% Feed Use 1.37 1.29 1.61 1.30 1.11 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.3 -1.5% 0.0% Exports 1.68 1.87 2.30 2.81 2.43 1.78 1.78 2.09 2.19 2.04 2.14 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.22 2.26 2.2 1.1% 2.7% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 120 120 150 177 164 132 136 139 140 140 144 143 140 139 139 140 148.3 -5.7% 0.3% Rye Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 0.16 0.14 0.16 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.1 -20.5% -1.0% Yield (t/ha) 2.54 2.43 2.34 2.31 2.40 2.43 2.45 2.47 2.49 2.51 2.53 2.55 2.57 2.59 2.61 2.63 2.4 10.6% 0.8% Production 0.40 0.33 0.38 0.25 0.32 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.3 -12.1% -0.2% Exports 0.13 0.14 0.21 0.19 0.08 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.2 -12.6% 0.2% Historical Data Sources: Statistics Canada - Cereals & Oilseeds Review, Catalogue 22-007; Statistics Canada - CANSIM; Statistics Canada - Farm Product Price Book; Canadian Wheat Board - Annual Report; Canada Grain Council - Statistical Handbook; GRIP calculations Note: 1. Prior to 1995 CWB Final Prices are basis Thunder Bay, thereafter basis St. Lawrence 10-006-r 53 TABLE 6: Canadian oilseeds (crop year) Table 6: Canadian oilseeds (crop year) Average %Chg. 2019: Average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2019 Canola Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 4.87 5.18 5.24 6.28 6.49 6.10 6.63 6.58 6.28 6.90 6.76 6.68 6.84 7.11 7.19 7.25 5.9 23.8% 1.0% Yield (t/ha) 1.58 1.83 1.72 1.53 1.95 1.94 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.89 1.91 1.93 1.94 1.96 1.97 1.99 1.8 10.9% 0.8% Production 7.67 9.48 9.00 9.60 12.64 11.83 12.26 12.27 11.80 13.07 12.92 12.86 13.27 13.91 14.17 14.42 10.5 37.2% 1.8% Crushings 3.03 3.42 3.58 4.14 4.28 5.00 5.65 6.01 5.99 6.12 6.29 6.47 6.67 6.87 7.07 7.34 4.1 79.7% 3.0% Meal Production 1.90 2.03 2.11 2.50 2.49 3.01 3.41 3.63 3.62 3.70 3.81 3.92 4.05 4.17 4.30 4.47 2.4 84.2% 3.1% Oil Production 1.25 1.46 1.55 1.74 1.84 2.14 2.42 2.57 2.57 2.62 2.70 2.78 2.87 2.96 3.05 3.17 1.7 81.5% 3.1% Seed Exports 3.41 5.41 5.48 5.66 7.91 6.00 6.46 5.82 5.81 6.27 6.18 6.04 6.18 6.50 6.61 6.55 6.1 7.5% 0.2% Ending Stocks 1.59 2.01 1.78 1.46 1.66 2.15 1.90 1.95 1.58 1.83 1.87 1.80 1.79 1.87 1.89 1.95 1.8 7.5% 0.3% Canola Oil Food Use 0.37 0.43 0.47 0.44 0.43 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.5 5.9% 0.2% Canola Oil Biodiesel Use 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.0 545.6% 1.8% Canola Oil Exports 0.97 1.09 1.26 1.31 1.53 1.57 1.85 2.00 1.99 2.04 2.12 2.19 2.28 2.37 2.46 2.57 1.4 90.4% 3.7% Canola Meal Feed Use 0.51 0.53 0.62 0.65 0.63 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.6 12.5% 0.5% Canola Meal Exports 1.41 1.49 1.48 1.86 1.86 2.35 2.75 2.96 2.97 3.03 3.14 3.26 3.37 3.49 3.61 3.78 1.8 108.9% 3.6% Canola Cash Price, #1 Vancouver ($/t) 309 278 370 553 467 414 393 402 467 456 454 468 480 480 486 486 416.5 16.8% 2.4% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 289 252 330 465 451 367 345 353 419 408 404 418 429 428 434 433 373.1 16.1% 2.6% 1 Canola Meal Price ($/t) 166 157 167 248 264 184 165 167 196 190 188 195 198 196 200 202 203.8 -0.8% 2.3% 1 Canola Oil Price ($/t) 689 638 788 1241 918 905 970 958 992 995 995 1018 1047 1060 1081 1103 898.2 22.8% 1.4% Effective Crush Margin ($/t) 106 127 110 168 81 146 178 171 133 145 150 150 152 158 163 175 126.4 38.5% -0.2% Soybean Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 1.17 1.17 1.20 1.17 1.20 1.38 1.27 1.22 1.24 1.34 1.33 1.30 1.33 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.2 10.9% 0.8% Yield (t/ha) 2.59 2.71 2.89 2.30 2.79 2.54 2.71 2.73 2.74 2.75 2.77 2.78 2.80 2.81 2.82 2.84 2.6 7.3% 0.5% Production 3.04 3.16 3.47 2.70 3.34 3.50 3.44 3.32 3.40 3.70 3.67 3.63 3.71 3.79 3.80 3.85 3.2 19.2% 1.3% Imports 0.39 0.34 0.24 0.34 0.36 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.3 -3.0% 0.0% Exports 1.12 1.32 1.74 1.70 1.87 1.95 1.69 1.55 1.64 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.91 1.99 1.99 2.02 1.7 17.6% 2.0% Soy Meal Imports 1.13 1.31 1.38 1.45 1.17 1.52 1.38 1.36 1.32 1.40 1.41 1.39 1.45 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.4 5.5% 0.4% Soy Meal Feed Use 2.28 2.37 2.47 2.45 2.13 2.51 2.44 2.43 2.38 2.46 2.47 2.46 2.53 2.55 2.54 2.54 2.4 6.7% 0.4% Soybean Cash Price, #2 Chatham ($/t) 248 220 263 432 425 346 305 323 381 365 361 378 389 386 394 394 337.1 16.8% 2.9% Flaxseed Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 0.52 0.73 0.79 0.52 0.63 0.62 0.68 0.64 0.66 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.7 11.3% 0.8% Yield (t/ha) 1.00 1.35 1.26 1.21 1.38 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.52 1.53 1.53 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.3 16.1% 0.4% Production 0.52 0.99 0.99 0.63 0.86 0.93 1.02 0.97 1.00 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.09 1.12 1.13 1.14 0.9 29.1% 1.2% Exports 0.47 0.54 0.68 0.68 0.60 0.45 0.86 0.79 0.81 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.87 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.6 53.9% 0.5% Cash Price, #1 CW Thunder Bay ($/t) 454 276 302 611 500 392 372 381 442 432 430 443 454 454 460 460 416.2 10.6% 2.4% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 438 259 263 546 553 364 341 350 416 404 401 414 426 425 431 430 396.9 8.2% 2.6% Historical Data Sources: Statistics Canada - Cereals & Oilseeds Review, Catalogue 22-007; Statistics Canada - CANSIM; Statistics Canada - Farm Product Price Book; Canadian Wheat Board - Annual Report; Canada Grain Council - Statistical Handbook; GRIP calculations Note: 1. In November 2001, the basis changed from FOB Plants to FOB Vancouver 10-006-r 54 TABLE 7: Canadian special crops (crop year) Table 7: Canadian special crops (crop year) Average %Chg. 2019: Average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2019 Harvested Area (thous ha) 2655 2566 2201 2580 2752 2885 2863 3007 3064 3051 2962 2919 2900 2886 2867 2844 2596.9 9.5% -0.1% Canary Seed 318 182 131 174 164 128 161 169 173 172 167 165 164 163 163 161 155.7 3.7% 0.0% Chick Peas 39 73 128 174 51 71 72 75 77 77 74 73 73 73 72 72 99.4 -27.8% 0.0% Dry Peas 1244 1267 1231 1443 1582 1487 1458 1531 1559 1551 1504 1481 1470 1462 1451 1438 1402.1 2.6% -0.2% Lentils 714 785 504 534 700 935 903 950 969 966 939 926 921 917 912 906 691.6 30.9% 0.0% Mustard Seed 285 188 130 176 186 200 204 214 218 218 211 208 207 206 205 203 176.1 15.4% 0.0% Sunflower Seed 55 71 77 79 69 65 64 67 69 68 66 65 65 64 64 63 72.1 -11.9% -0.1% Canary Seed Production (kt) 301 227 133 162 196 142 169 178 182 181 176 174 173 173 172 171 171.9 -0.5% 0.1% Farm Price, Western Canada ($/t) 230 195 335 560 480 450 435 436 436 437 437 438 438 439
Posted: 27 March 2010, last updated 19 February 2011

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