Livestock & Products Semi-annual Report

An Expert's View about Business Environment in China

Last updated: 19 Mar 2011

FAS Beijing forecasts China’s beef production in 2011 will continue to decline to 5.5 million metric tons, down two percent from the year before. Meanwhile, pork production in 2011 will continue modest gains, rising to 52.5 MMT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 3/4/2011 GAIN Report Number: CH11012 China - Peoples Republic of Livestock and Products Semi-annual Report 2011 Approved By: Scott Sindelar Prepared By: Michael Woolsey, Jianping Zhang Report Highlights: FAS Beijing forecasts China?s beef production in 2011 will continue to decline to 5.5 million metric tons, down two percent from the year before. Meanwhile, pork production in 2011 will continue modest gains, rising to 52.5 MMT. Lower domestic beef production will encourage higher imports, with sales forecast to jump 38 percent to 55,000 MT in 2011. Pork imports are forecast to rise 15 percent to 480,000 MT fueled by moderate domestic production and robust Chinese pork demand. China?s live cattle imports in 2011 are expected to increase 18 percent to 100,000 head due to rising demand from the dairy sector. Beef exports in 2011 are forecast to also increase 18 percent to 60,000 MT, partly fueled by higher export unit prices. Pork exports in 2011 are forecast to rise 19 percent to 330,000 MT, due to strong demand in China?s traditional export market. Chart 1: FAS Beijing's Forecast for China's Total Meat Production 2011 (1,000 MT) 5,500 , 7% 1,550 , 2% 17,450 , 21% Beef 4,300 , Pork 5% Mutton 52,500 , 65% Total poultry Meat Other Meat Executive Summary: FAS Beijing (Post) forecasts China?s total meat production in 2011 at 81.3 million metric tons (MMT), less than three percent increase from an estimated 79.2 MMT in 2010. Beef, pork, sheep and goat meat, and poultry meat shares are estimated to account for seven percent, 65 percent, five percent, and 21 percent respectively. China?s beef production is forecast to slide two percent to 5.5 MMT in 2011, due to comparatively poor farm returns for raising beef cattle in China. Lower domestic production will encourage higher imports, with beef imports forecast to reach 55,000 metric tons, carcass weight equivalence (CWE) in 2011, up 38 percent from 2010. Beef import volumes could jump substantially depending on the results of China?s ongoing negotiations with Canada and the United States to resume beef trade, banned since 2003 due to BSE. Beef exports in 2011 are forecast to increase 18 percent to 60,000 MT (CWE), partly fueled by higher export unit prices. China?s live cattle imports will likely increase 18 percent to 100,000 head, more than double 2009?s imports as China?s dairy industry continues to rebuild following the 2008 melamine scandal, and China aims to replace more than one million dairy cows that were eliminated from China?s dairy herd in 2008 and 2009. China?s pork production will continue modest growth, forecast at 52.5 MMT in 2011. In several production areas this year, higher output by large-scale operators is more than offsetting reported losses among backyard operations, where many farmers have reduced herd size due to disease and low prices in the first half of 2010. Moderate pork production growth combined with a strong domestic pork demand will support higher imports. Total pork imports (including offal) are expected to reach over 1 MMT in 2011. Not including offals, China?s pork imports are forecast at 480,000 metric tons (CWE) in 2011. Pork exports in 2011 are forecast to rise 19 percent to 330,000 MT, due to strong demand in China?s traditional export market. Cattle and Beef Cattle and beef productions down in 2011 Post forecasts China?s beef cow beginning stocks in 2011 will decline one percent to 46.5 million head from estimated 47 million head in 2010. Although dairy cow beginning stocks are forecast to increase nearly three percent to almost 13 million head because of continued Chinese dairy industry rebuilding after China?s nation-wide melamine scandal in 2008, it cannot completely offset reduced beef cows. As a result, cattle production (calf crop) in 2011 is expected to decline one and a half percent to 40.9 Chart 2: China's Average Retail Beef Prices 2008-2010 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.58) 36.00 35.00 34.00 33.00 32.00 31.00 mi 30.00llion head from an estimated 41.5 million head in 2010, thus driving China?s 2011 beef output down nearly two percent to 5.5 MMT from estimated 5.6 MMT in the previous year. Beef production in 2010 was slightly higher than Post?s previous forecast in the last livestock annual report because of slightly higher slaughter of old dairy cows. However, this could not fundamentally change China?s declining beef production. Although the China National Statistics Bureau?s preliminary data published recently shows Chinese 2010 be9ef pro.duct0ion up0 2.7 percent from 2009, Post believes it will take more time for the Chinese cattle and beef industry to recover. The comparatively low returns for raising cattle compared to swine and poultry, longer production time, combined with continued high feed prices, high labor costs because of short labor supplies, and other higher input costs such as energy, transportation, and water, will continue dampen cattle farmers? interest in expanding placement. Cattle farmers also point to the predominant cattle marketing pattern, where intermediaries do the bulk of the purchasing from backyard farmers and keep farm returns low, as a significant factor in low enthusiasm for raising cattle. Over-herding on grasslands is another long-run constraint. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), national over-herding (of all grass-fed animals in grazing areas) exceeds one-third of grasslands capacity. High prices continue to limit beef consumption growth China?s total beef consumption in 2011 is forecast to decline two percent to 5.5 MMT from an estimated 5.6 MMT in 2010. Per capita beef consumption is expected to decrease slightly to 4.1 kilograms in 2011 compared to 4.2 kilograms and 4.3 kilograms in 2010 and 2009 respectively. Source: The Ministry of Ariculture Consumption continues to be dampened by high beef prices because of smaller domestic production. In December 2010, Chinese average beef prices hit a 4-year high at RMB35.07 ($5.33) Kg. Beef is considered pricey when compared to pork at RMB21.94 ($3.33) Kg and broiler meat at RMB16.02 ($2.43) Kg in the same month. A strong preference for fresh meat also limits beef demand growth. Unlike pork, which is mainly produced in grain production areas near large cities, 25 percent of beef is frozen and transported from grassland areas in West China. High distribution costs and an unreliable cold chain in China are additional constraints. With the exception of western regions where beef and mutton provide most animal proteins for local consumers, beef is mainly consumed in wealthier urban areas, especially large-medium cities, fueled by an expanding middle class. Potential beef consumption growth will lie in continued urbanization in China. With a tiny share of high-quality beef production, less than five percent according to industry contacts, China?s consumption growth of high quality beef will continue to rely on imports. Higher beef offal consumption has partly substituted for muscle beef because of cheaper prices. AQSIQ No. 136 Decree requests new labeling for meat imports as of June 1, 2011 AQSIQ (the Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine) announced on its website on January 20, 2011 the AQSIQ Decree 136 for the Administrative Measure of Inspection, Quarantine, and Supervision on Entry-Exit Meat Products effective on June 1, 2011. It replaced the AQSIQ Decree 26 for the Administrative Measure of Inspection and quarantine on Entry-Exit Meat Products announced and implemented on August 22, 2002. Post selected a few differences to remind traders. AQSIQ confirmed that the effective date of Decree 136 is the arrival date, not production date. Please refer to FAS Beijing?s FAIRS Measures on Inspection, Quarantine, and Supervision of Entry- Exit Meat Products (February 11, 2011) for a complete report. The following is a summary of key differences in Decree 136. Article 14 (14.2) requires inner labeling for: 1. Product name 2. Establishment number 3. Country of origin (new) 4. Production lot number (new) The definition of the ?production lot number? is under discussion with AQSIQ. Article 14 (14.3) requests outer box labeling for (must mark in Chinese): 1. Product n name 2. Establishment number 3. Country of Origin (revised to specify the state/province/city) 4. Specifications 5. Production date 6. Expiring date 7. Production lot number (new) 8. Storage temperature 9. Destination (revised to specify: To the People?s Republic of China) 10. Official inspection seal. The ?Country of Origin? is changed to specify a state or province, or a city if the city does not belong to any state or province. While outer box labeling is requested to be marked in Chinese, bilingual (Chinese and English) labeling is acceptable. Article 22 adds that if imported meat products are destined to mainland China, but unloaded from original ships at Hong Kong or Macau ports and then transported to mainland China via road transportation, or unloaded at Hong Kong and Macau ports but loaded again onboard a ship at other ports to destine to mainland China, (local) consignees should apply with the local inspection and quarantine agency designated by AQSIQ for transshipment pre-inspection. Without pre-inspection or pre-inspection results show meat products are not qualified, meat products are not allowed to be transshipped to the mainland. Article 15 stresses that exporting countries meat export health certificates accompanying exported meat products should comply with AQSIQ?s requirements on the certificate. Article 7 requires that imported meat products should comply with China?s laws and regulations, national (GB) standard for food safety, and comply with the requirements in bilateral agreements, protocols, MOUs (memorandum of understanding), as well as requirements in bilateral trade contracts. When importing meat products that have no reference for GB standards, consignees must provide AQSIQ/CIQ (local inspection and quarantine bureaus) with a permit issued by the Chinese health administrative agency (the Ministry of Health). All red meat and offal imports subject to monitoring management On February 15, 2011, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) published its No. 6 Announcement for Modification of the List of Imported Large Volume Agricultural Products Subject to Reporting Management?. It newly included imported beef, pork, sheep and goat meat, as well as red meat offal to be subject to reporting management as of April 1, 2011. This is a further monitoring of import volumes after the implementation of ARF (automated registered form or called import license) management for beef and sheep and goat meats on January 1, 2011, and for pork on January 1, 2009. MOFCOM entrusted CFNA (China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Food Stuffs, Native Produce and Animal Byproducts) to help verify and register importers for reporting records. A copy of the registration should also be provided to local Department of Commerce where importers obtain their business license and apply for ARFs. CFNA will provide a special key or password for each registered reporter to visit MOFCOM?s special website for reporting imported large volume agriculture products. MOFCOM will publish red meat and offal import volumes every other week on its website (www.mofcom.gov.cn). Poultry imports do not need to report. Post believes that each ARF for poultry implemented since 2001 has already got a volume limit, while ARFs for red meats do not have such limitation. Another difference is poultry imports are limited to 74 Chinese importing companies, while red meats are not. Post believes that red meat imports will not be impacted at the moment. However, there is a potentiality that red meat import volumes are limited by each ARF, like poultry imports, if red meat imports are too large in the future. Strong live cattle and beef imports in 2011 While a tiny share of total consumption, China?s beef imports are forecast to continue rise from 40,000 MT in 2010 to 55,000 MT in 2011, carcass weight equivalent (CWE). Brazil, Uruguay, Australia, and New Zealand will dominate China?s beef import market. China?s beef imports in 2010 jumped 38 percent, much higher than expected, because of cheaper import beef prices. The average import beef prices was $3,557 per ton, almost 45 percent discount compared to average domestic beef prices at $5,154 per ton. South American beef is strongly competitive against traditional suppliers, Australia and New Zealand. Brazilian and Uruguayan muscle cuts are especially price competitive. An average import unit prices for Brazilian and Uruguayan beef in 2010 was 41 percent and 49 percent cheaper than Australian beef respectively. Meanwhile, Chinese beef variety meat imports in 2010 increased 160 percent to 9,099 MT from 3,489 MT in the previous year fueled by strong domestic demand and cheaper import prices. Chinese beef imports could be significantly higher in 2011 depending on the results of ongoing negotiations to lift the ban on beef from the United States and Canada. China?s live cattle imports are nearly all dairy cows. Overall, China?s live cattle imports in 2011 are forecast to increase 18 percent to 100,000 head from estimated 85,000 head in the previous year. The gains are due to strong demand from dairy operators as China?s dairy sector responds to high milk prices and gradually recovers from the nationwide melamine crisis in September 2008. The imports are needed to replace some of the more than one million dairy cows that were eliminated from China?s Chart 3: China's Average Pork, Hog and Piglet Prices 2008-2010 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.58) 40.00 35.00 30.00 Pork 25.00 Hogs 20.00 Piglets dairy herd following the melamine scandal. It is too early to say how much a serious flood in Australia, China?s largest dairy cow supplier, will impact Australian exports to China. Australia and New Zealand will continue to dominate live cattle supplies to Chinese import market as the ban on imports of North American cattle are expected unchanged due to BSE. 15.00 Live cattle exports to continue decline, while beef exports increase in 2011 China?s live cattle exports are forecast to decline three percent to 30,000 head from 31,000 head in the previous year because of decreased domestic production. The exports are limited to nearby Hong Kong and Macau for fresh beef consumption. Additionally, China?s successful market access of fresh and chilled beef to Hong Kong in December 2010 will likely substitute for part of China?s live cattle exports to Hong Kong. China?s beef exports i1n 2011 are0.00 expected to rise 18 percent to 60,000 MT (CWE) from 51,000 MT (CWE) in 2010, partly fueled by higher unit export prices. The unit export price in January 2011 climbed eight percent to $4,916 per ton, hit at least a 10-year record high. Higher sales to China?s traditional export markets, the Middle East, Hong Kong, Japan, and Kyrgyzstan will account for all of the gains. Hong Kong will continue to serve as China?s top beef export market where Chinese beef is price competitive. Part of exports to Hong Kong may shift from frozen beef to fresh and chilled beef as Hong Kong lifted its ban on China?s fresh and chilled beef in December 2010. U.S. and China discussions regarding market access for U.S. beef will continue 5.00 Based on a consensus made between the United States and China during the meeting of the 21st US- China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) in December 2010, a joint U.S. delegation consisted of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. Trade Representative Office (USTR), and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) held discussions, in January 2011, with AQSIQ and MOA (the Ministry of Agriculture) toward a market reopening for U.S. beef. While the two sides could not reach an agreement, significant progress was made and talks are expected to continue later this year. China banned U.S. beef in December 2003 after a detection of BSE in the State of Washington. China officially lifted its ban on some U.S. beef in June 2006, but Chinese extensive import requirements and limited scope of permitted products prevent a market reopening. Swine and Pork A flat pig crop production, and a moderate pork production growth in 2011 China?s pig crop production in 2011 is forecasts at nearly 668 million head, a half percent increase from estimated 665 mi Source: The Ministry of Agriculturellion head in 2010. Given higher slaughter rate to total inventory, pork production in 2011 is forecast to rise nearly three percent to 52.5 MMT from an estimated 51 MMT in the previous year. Although sow beginning stocks in 2011 declined three 01/ 2008 03/ 2008 05/ 2008 07/ 2008 09/ 2008 11/ 2008 01/ 2009 03/ 2009 05/ 2009 07/ 2009 09/ 2009 11/ 2009 01/ 2010 03/ 2010 05/ 2010 07/ 2010 09/ 2010 11/ 2010 Chart 4: China Average Retail Corn Prices for 2010 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.58) 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.00 1.95 percent to 47.5 million head from 49.1 million head in 2010, pig crop production is forecast to stay marginally above the 2010 level because of slightly higher number of piglets 1produ.ced9 per so0w, which is partly due to a continued expansion in commercial swine farms. These operations feature superior with feeding management, which is believed to result in higher piglet survival. The lower sow stocks are partly a result of persistent low hog prices due to hog oversupplies in the first half of 2010. The 2010 slaughter weight was higher than expected because many hog producers were reluctant to slaughter hogs when prices were low in the first half of the year waiting for better price chances, as a result to keep hogs grow bigger. 1.85 Higher grain prices, combined with China?s 2010 decision to eliminate productive sow subsidies of RMB 100 ($15.2) per animal in order to discourage hog oversupplies, as well as regional outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD) and swine blue ear disease (PRRS), drove many small and backyard operators to slaughter sows and withdraw from swine production. Despite hog prices climbing in the latter half of 2010 due to slow growth in swine supplies, many small and backyard operators who gave up production are reluctant to restart swine production, as profitability is limited by higher production costs. Additionally, an uncertainty of FMD and PRRS control, government policy change in 2010 from subsidizing all productive sows to only high quality breeding sows on large commercial farms, and more difficulties for small and backyard operators to get bank loans will make small and backyard operators much less competitive to large commercial swine producers, thus dampening their interest in swine production. Higher salaries for migrant workers in urban areas due to short labor supplies are also discouraging growth in backyard operations. Meanwhile, new placements by commercial operations in the second half of 2010 will take time to impact Source: The Ministry of Agriculture pork production. According to the swine industry, it normally takes three months for newly placed sows to reach the stage of breeding, four months of pregnancy, and five months to fatten hogs. These combines will translate into relatively tight swine supplies and high pork prices at least through the first half of 2011. This will also translate into strong pork imports in 2011. Total and per capita pork consumption on the rise China?s total pork consumption in 2011 is forecast at 52.7 MMT, a three percent increase from an estimated 51.2 MMT in the previous year. As population grows, the moderate growth of domestic pork will be mainly consumed in China. Per capita pork consumption is expected to grow from 37 Kg in 2009 to estimated 39 Kg in 2011. Swine and pork imports higher in 2011 Given moderate growth in domestic pork production and high domestic pork prices, China?s pork imports will continue rebounding strongly in 2011. Total imports, including offal, are expected to increase 20 percent to over 1 MMT, up from 902,000 MT valued at $991.4 million in the previous year. Offal will continue to dominate China?s pork imports. Excluding offal, China?s pork imports in 2011 are expected to rise 15 percent to 480,000 MT (CWE), up from 414,000 MT (CWE) in 2010. In May 2010, the United States resumed pork exports to China after AQSIQ lifted it?s A-H1N1 ban by agreeing that the U.S. animal health system met China?s A-H1N1 requirements for pork. Following this market reopening, sales have been brisk. The United States is the largest supplier to China?s import market. In January 2011, U.S. pork exports to China via direct shipments was over 11,000 MT valued at $10.9 million. While China lifted its ban on U.S. pork, trade in U.S. live swine has not resumed due to China?s A- H1N1 pre-export testing requirements for live hogs. All imports are breeding animals. The United States accounted for well over half of China?s swine imports prior to the A-H1N1 ban in May 2009, reaching more than 10,000 head in 2008. Live swine imports in 2011 are expected to rise 29 percent to 9,000 head, with the EU and Canada accounting for all these sales. U.S. negotiations regarding China?s A-H1N1 requirements for swine continue. Post believes Chinese swine imports could be significantly higher in 2011 depending on the results of ongoing negotiations to lift the ban on U.S. live swine. Pork exports expected to rise considerably, while swine exports to decrease China?s pork exports in 2011 are forecast at 330,000 MT (CWE), a 19 percent increase from 278,000 MT in the previous year, fueled by strong demands in China?s export markets. Hong Kong, Japan, and Kyrgyzstan are the top three traditional Chinese export markets accounting for nearly 80 percent of China?s total shipments. China?s live swine exports to Hong Kong and Macau for local fresh meat consumption in 2011 are expected to decline nearly three percent to 1.67 million head from 1.72 million head in the previous year due to a tight domestic swine supply. In addition, growth is limited by slaughter capacity and flat demand in these markets. Statistic Tables Cattle PS&D Table Animal Numbers, Cattle 2009 2010 2011 China Market Year Begin: Jan 2009 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Total Cattle Beg. Stks 105,722 105,722 105,430 105,430 105,060 104,814 (1000 HEAD) Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks 12,335 12,335 12,603 12,603 12,900 12,960 (1000 HEAD) Beef Cows Beg. Stocks 48,000 48,000 47,000 47,000 46,480 46,480 (1000 HEAD) Production (Calf Crop) 42,576 42,576 41,500 41,500 40,850 40,900 (1000 HEAD) Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Imports 47 47 90 85 70 100 (1000 HEAD) Total Imports 47 47 90 85 70 100 (1000 HEAD) Total Supply 148,345 148,345 147,020 147,015 145,980 145,814 (1000 HEAD) Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Exports 29 32 40 31 31 30 (1000 HEAD) Total Exports 29 32 40 31 31 30 (1000 HEAD) Cow Slaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Calf Slaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Slaughter 42,382 42,379 40,808 41,170 40,075 40,440 (1000 HEAD) Total Slaughter 42,382 42,379 40,808 41,170 40,075 40,440 (1000 HEAD) Loss 504 504 1,112 1,000 985 985 (1000 HEAD) Ending Inventories 105,430 105,430 105,060 104,814 104,889 104,359 (1000 HEAD) Total Distribution 148,345 148,345 147,020 147,015 145,980 145,814 (1000 HEAD) CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Inventory Balance -292 -292 -370 -616 -171 -455 (1000 HEAD) Inventory Change 0 0 0 0 0 -1 (PERCENT) Cow Change -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 (PERCENT) Production Change -6 -6 -3 -3 -2 -1 (PERCENT) Production to Cows 71 71 70 70 69 69 (PERCENT) Trade Balance -18 -15 -50 -54 -39 -70 (1000 HEAD) Slaughter to Inventory 40 40 39 39 38 39 (PERCENT) TS=TD 0 0 0 (Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline) Beef PS&D Table Meat, Beef 2009 2010 2011 and Veal China Market Year Begin: Jan 2009 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 USDA New Post USDA New Post USDA New Post Official Official Official Slaughter 42,382 42,379 40,808 41,170 40,075 40,440 (1000 (Reference) HEAD) Beginning 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT Stocks CWE) Production 5,764 5,764 5,550 5,600 5,450 5,500 (1000 MT CWE) Intra-EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT Imports CWE) Other 23 23 23 40 33 55 (1000 MT Imports CWE) Total 23 23 23 40 33 55 (1000 MT Imports CWE) Total 5,787 5,787 5,573 5,640 5,483 5,555 (1000 MT Supply CWE) Intra EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT Exports CWE) Other 38 38 45 51 42 60 (1000 MT Exports CWE) Total 38 38 45 51 42 60 (1000 MT Exports CWE) Human 5,749 5,749 5,528 5,589 5,441 5,495 (1000 MT Dom. CWE) Consumpti on Other Use, 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT Losses CWE) Total Dom. 5,749 5,749 5,528 5,589 5,441 5,495 (1000 MT Consumpti CWE) on Ending 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT Stocks CWE) Total 5,787 5,787 5,573 5,640 5,483 5,555 (1000 MT Distribution CWE) CY Imp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT from U.S. CWE) CY. Exp. to 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT U.S. CWE) Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT CWE) Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT Balance CWE) Weights 136 136 136 136 136 136 (1000 MT CWE) Production -6 -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 (PERCEN Change T) Import 283 283 0 74 43 38 (PERCEN Change T) Export -34 -34 18 34 -7 18 (PERCEN Change T) Trade 15 15 22 11 9 5 (1000 MT Balance CWE) Consumpti -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 (PERCEN on Change T) Population 1 , 3 3 8,612,9 1,338,612,9 1,347,563,4 1,345,306,0 1,356,818,7 1,352,032,5 (PEOPLE) 68 68 98 33 37 63 Per Capita 4 4.3 4 4.2 4 4.1 (KG) Consumpti on TS=TD 0 0 0 (Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline) Swine PS&D Table Animal Numbers, 2009 2010 2011 Swine China Market Year Begin: Jan 2009 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 USDA New Post USDA New Post USDA New Post Official Official Official Total Beginning 462,913 462,913 469,960 469,960 468,507 464,400 (1000 Stocks HEAD) Sow Beginning Stocks 48,788 48,788 49,100 49,100 49,000 47,500 (1000 HEAD) Production (Pig Crop) 655,545 655,620 660,000 665,000 661,000 667,954 (1000 HEAD) Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Imports 6 6 2 7 2 9 (1000 HEAD) Total Imports 6 6 2 7 2 9 (1000 HEAD) Total Supply 1,118,464 1,118,539 1,129,962 1,134,967 1,129,509 1,132,363 (1000 HEAD) Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Exports 1,602 1,693 1,650 1,721 1,675 1,675 (1000 HEAD) Total Exports 1,602 1,693 1,650 1,721 1,675 1,675 (1000 HEAD) Sow Slaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Slaughter 645,402 645,386 658,005 667,000 662,034 686,275 (1000 HEAD) Total Slaughter 645,402 645,386 658,005 667,000 662,034 686,275 (1000 HEAD) Loss 1,500 1,500 1,800 1,846 800 800 (1000 HEAD) Ending Inventories 469,960 469,960 468,507 464,400 465,000 443,613 (1000 HEAD) Total Distribution 1,118,464 1,118,539 1,129,962 1,134,967 1,129,509 1,132,363 (1000 HEAD) CY Imp. from U.S. 2 4 0 3 0 3 (1000 HEAD) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Inventory Balance 7047 7047 -1453 -5560 -3507 -20787 (1000 HEAD) Inventory Change 5 5 2 2 0 -1 (PERCENT) Sow Change 3 3 1 1 0 -3 (PERCENT) Production Change 3 3 1 1 0 0 (PERCENT) Production to Sows 13 13.4 13 13.5 14 14.1 (PERCENT) Trade Balance 1596 1687 1648 1714 1673 1666 (1000 HEAD) Slaughter to Inventory 139 139 140 142 141 148 (PERCENT) TS=TD 0 0 0 (Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline) Pork PS&D Table Animal Numbers, 2009 2010 2011 Swine China Market Year Begin: Jan 2009 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 USDA New Post USDA New Post USDA New Post Official Official Official Total Beginning 462,913 462,913 469,960 469,960 468,507 464,400 (1000 Stocks HEAD) Sow Beginning Stocks 48,788 48,788 49,100 49,100 49,000 47,500 (1000 HEAD) Production (Pig Crop) 655,545 655,620 660,000 665,000 661,000 667,954 (1000 HEAD) Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Imports 6 6 2 7 2 9 (1000 HEAD) Total Imports 6 6 2 7 2 9 (1000 HEAD) Total Supply 1,118,464 1,118,539 1,129,962 1,134,967 1,129,509 1,132,363 (1000 HEAD) Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Exports 1,602 1,693 1,650 1,721 1,675 1,675 (1000 HEAD) Total Exports 1,602 1,693 1,650 1,721 1,675 1,675 (1000 HEAD) Sow Slaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Slaughter 645,402 645,386 658,005 667,000 662,034 686,275 (1000 HEAD) Total Slaughter 645,402 645,386 658,005 667,000 662,034 686,275 (1000 HEAD) Loss 1,500 1,500 1,800 1,846 800 800 (1000 HEAD) Ending Inventories 469,960 469,960 468,507 464,400 465,000 443,613 (1000 HEAD) Total Distribution 1,118,464 1,118,539 1,129,962 1,134,967 1,129,509 1,132,363 (1000 HEAD) CY Imp. from U.S. 2 4 0 3 0 3 (1000 HEAD) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Inventory Balance 7047 7047 -1453 -5560 -3507 -20787 (1000 HEAD) Inventory Change 5 5 2 2 0 -1 (PERCENT) Sow Change 3 3 1 1 0 -3 (PERCENT) Production Change 3 3 1 1 0 0 (PERCENT) Production to Sows 13 13.4 13 13.5 14 14.1 (PERCENT) Trade Balance 1596 1687 1648 1714 1673 1666 (1000 HEAD) Slaughter to Inventory 139 139 140 142 141 148 (PERCENT) TS=TD 0 0 0 (Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline) Cattle and Beef Trade Matrices China Live Cattle Imports by Reporting Countries Export Statistics 2008-2010 (Number of Head) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Quantity Quantity Quantity % Change Origin 2008 2009 2010 2010/09 World 15,075 47,081 79,871 69.65 Australia 12,416 32,798 57,552 75.47 New Zealand 2,651 10,028 16,998 69.51 Uruguay 0 4,131 5,176 25.30 Other 8 124 145 16.94 Source: Global Trade Atlas HS Codes: 010210, and 010290 Note: As of 2009, China changed its live cattle imports and exports from number of head to metric tons. This table uses exporting countries' reports in number of head. Note: Uruguayan data is estimated. Available official data is only for Jan-Oct 2010. China Beef and Veal Imports, 2008-2010 (Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Quantity Quantity Quantity % Change Origin 2008 2009 2010 2010/09 World 4,424 14,275 28,419 99.08 Brazil 33 933 7,853 741.69 Uruguay 1,464 5,163 7,633 47.84 Australia 2,712 5,558 5,757 3.58 Hong Kong 1,064 2,181 4,670 114.12 New Zealand 173 2,505 2,442 -2.51 United States 0 0 0 0.00 Canada 0 0 0 0.00 Other 42 116 64 -44.83 Source: Global Trade Atlas HS Code: 020110, 020120, 020130, 020210, 020220, 020230, 021020, and 160250 China Live Cattle Exports, 2008-2010 (Number of Head) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Quantity Quantity Quantity % Change Destination 2008 2009 2010 2010/09 World 33,340 31,610 31,202 -1.29 Hong Kong 29,485 28,657 27,949 -2.47 Macau 2,946 2,720 2,618 -3.75 Mongolia 301 229 615 168.56 Korea North 0 4 20 400.00 Uzbekistan 512 0 0 0.00 Other 96 0 0 0.00 Source: Global Trade Atlas HS Code: 010210, 010290 Note: As of 2009, China changed its live cattle imports and exports from number of head to metric tons. The Chinese industry's conversion is 4 live cattle for 1 MT. This table uses the importing countries' statistics in number of head or the Chinese industry's conversion if importing countries statistics are not available. China Beef and Veal Exports, 2008-2010 (Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Quantity Quantity Quantity % Change Destination 2008 2009 2010 2010/09 World 41,594 27,183 36,186 33.12 Hong Kong 14,276 11,392 12,458 9.36 Japan 5,449 4,846 6,245 28.87 Kyrgyzstan 2,149 2,042 4,249 108.08 Kuwait 3,188 3,192 3,579 12.12 Jordan 4,414 2,019 3,491 72.91 Israel 568 417 2,172 420.86 Lebanon 996 191 1,112 482.20 Malaysia 1,837 995 1,041 4.62 Korea North 180 85 263 209.41 Macau 248 223 261 17.04 Brunei 291 267 252 -5.62 Angola 603 330 228 -30.91 Libya 618 0 25 0.00 United Arab Emirates 660 72 2 -97.22 Korea South 3,948 196 0 -100.00 Other 2,169 916 808 -11.79 Source: Global Trade Atlas HS Code: 020110, 020120, 020130, 020210, 020220, 020230, 021020, and 160250 Swine and Pork Trade Matrices China Swine Imports by Reporting Countries' Export Statistics 2008-2010 (Number of Head) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Quantity Quantity Quantity % Change Origin 2008 2009 2010 2010/09 World 8,772 5,750 6,492 12.90 United States 7,086 4,249 2,501 -41.14 Denmark 126 156 2,106 1250.00 France 0 1,345 1,219 -9.37 Canada 3,876 0 666 0.00 Other 0 0 0 0.00 Source: Global Trade Atlas HS Code: 010310, 010391, and 010392 Note: As of 2009, China changed its swine imports and exports from number of head to metric tons. This table uses exporting countries' reports in number of head. Numbers of EU countries are estimated due to incomplete data. China Pork Imports, 2008-2010 (Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Quantity Quantity Quantity % Change Origin 2008 2009 2010 2010/09 World 545,524 207,984 318,988 53.37 Hong Kong 172,380 72,757 118,879 63.39 Denmark 76,066 46,246 72,632 57.06 Canada 42,119 28,225 38,992 38.15 United States 176,581 22,168 29,182 31.64 Spain 167 25,056 28,279 12.86 Germany 24 5 17,792 355740.00 France 72,882 12,954 11,183 -13.67 Ireland 4,601 25 532.8 0.00 Other 704 584 1,516 159.59 HS Code: 020311, 020312, 020319, 020321, 020322, 020329, 021011 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, and 160249 Source: Global Trade Atlas China Swine Exports, 2008-2010 (Number of Head) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Quantity Quantity Quantity % Change Destination 2008 2009 2010 2010/09 World 1,645,257 1,693,300 1,721,292 1.65 Hong Kong 1,546,517 1,601,987 1,636,001 2.12 Macau 98,597 91,313 85,236 -6.66 Other 143 0 60 0.00 Source: Global Trade Atlas HS Code: 010310, 010391, 010392 Note: As of 2009, China changed its swine trade number from number of head to metric tons. The Chinese industry's conversion is15 swine for 1 MT. This table uses reporting countries' import statistics in number of head, or the industry's conversion if importing countries' statistics in number of head are not available. China Pork Exports, 2008-2010 (Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Quantity Quantity Quantity % Change Destination 2008 2009 2010 2010/09 World 170,999 178,509 213,563 19.64 Hong Kong 87,396 97,533 113,135 16.00 Japan 43,016 40,060 43,413 8.37 Kyrgyzstan 8,437 8,734 12,391 41.87 Philippines 3,541 6,421 10,860 69.13 Malaysia 7,142 5,576 8,748 56.89 Singapore 4,494 7,397 6,216 -15.97 Macau 4,622 4,984 5,990 20.18 Ukraine 0 475 2,000 321.05 Albania 519 1,671 2,642 58.11 Indonesia 2,097 1,559 1,253 -19.63 Lebanon 636 69 241 249.28 Angola 61 278 194 -30.22 Korea South 465 351 142 -59.54 Korea North 2,214 25 92 268.00 Vietnam 1,985 98 18 -81.63 Russia 71 71 0 -100.00 Other 4,303 3,207 6,228 94.20 Source: Global Trade Atlas HS Code: 020311, 020312, 020319, 020321, 020322, 020329, 021011 021012, 1021019, 60241, 160242, and 160249 Monthly swine and productive sow inventory table China Monthly Swine and Productive Sow Inventories, 2009-2010 (1,000 Head) 2009 Total Swine Productive Sows Sow Ratio to Total January 456,160 50,100 10.98 February 445,940 49,870 11.18 March 448,610 49,420 11.02 April 454,890 49,220 10.82 May 453,250 48,800 10.77 June 447,200 48,300 10.80 July 450,060 48,060 10.68 August 458,160 48,160 10.51 September 465,160 48,400 10.41 October 469,210 48,750 10.39 November 465,900 48,700 10.45 December 469,834 49,100 10.45 2010 January 455,000 48,700 10.70 February 443,300 48,900 11.03 March 441,300 48,400 10.97 April 436,000 47,600 10.92 May 433,700 47,000 10.84 June 436,700 46,800 10.72 July 440,000 46,300 10.52 August 441,800 45,800 10.37 September 454,500 47,000 10.34 October 454,400 46,900 10.32 November 454,700 46,600 10.25 December 464400 47,500 10.47 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture Livestock Price Tables China National Retail Beef Prices on Average, 2007-2010 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.58) 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Change 2010/09 January 19.64 29.11 33.90 34.08 0.53 February 20.35 31.40 33.72 34.54 2.43 March 20.14 31.42 33.13 33.86 2.20 April 20.07 31.55 32.81 33.45 1.95 May 20.28 31.73 32.60 33.24 1.96 June 21.21 31.82 32.53 33.16 1.94 July 22.02 31.92 32.46 33.30 2.59 August 23.13 32.02 32.70 33.55 2.60 September 23.69 32.39 32.96 33.89 2.82 October 24.36 32.74 33.15 34.17 3.08 November 25.27 32.98 33.35 34.65 3.90 December 26.65 33.25 33.73 35.07 3.97 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture China Retail Pork Prices On Average, 2007-2010 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.58) MONTH 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Change 2010/09 January 14.91 25.53 21.25 19.31 -9.13 February 14.97 26.08 20.62 18.67 -9.46 March 14.50 25.56 19.30 17.32 -10.26 April 14.39 25.68 17.60 16.21 -7.90 May 15.86 24.71 15.68 16.09 2.61 June 17.74 24.10 15.46 16.04 3.75 July 20.77 23.58 16.27 17.54 7.81 August 22.95 23.18 17.94 19.30 7.58 September 22.10 22.59 18.97 20.11 6.01 October 21.15 20.86 18.71 20.42 9.14 November 22.35 19.46 18.47 21.33 15.48 December 24.05 20.34 19.11 21.94 14.81 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture China Retail Hog Prices On Average 2007-2010 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.58) MONTH 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Change 2010/09 January 9.55 16.50 13.41 12.05 -10.14 February 9.20 16.70 12.70 11.14 -12.28 March 8.91 16.83 11.63 10.06 -13.50 April 9.02 16.87 10.35 9.53 -7.92 May 10.20 15.77 9.24 9.62 4.11 June 11.37 15.35 9.33 9.64 3.32 July 13.12 14.82 10.13 11.14 9.97 August 14.27 14.47 11.38 12.19 7.12 September 13.60 13.86 11.85 12.55 5.91 October 13.21 12.50 11.47 12.78 11.42 November 14.13 11.90 11.40 13.55 18.86 December 15.46 12.91 12.09 13.79 14.06 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture China Retail Piglet Prices On Average 2007-2010 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.58) MONTH 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Change 2010/09 January 12.12 29.66 20.06 17.41 -13.21 February 12.26 30.62 20.11 16.60 -17.45 March 12.68 35.29 19.75 15.61 -20.96 April 13.31 38.23 18.27 14.74 -19.32 May 15.09 36.11 15.41 14.77 -4.15 June 17.17 34.55 15.08 14.39 -4.58 July 20.11 33.01 15.88 15.77 -0.69 August 24.09 30.94 17.74 17.61 -0.73 September 23.70 28.55 18.78 18.24 -2.88 October 22.62 23.44 18.14 18.21 0.39 November 23.84 20.02 17.39 18.55 6.67 December 26.21 19.42 17.55 18.64 -50.77 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture China Retail Industry Feed Prices for Fattening Swine On Average, 2007-2010 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.58) MONTH 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Change 2010/09 January 1.98 2.51 2.50 2.69 7.60 February 1.98 2.55 2.48 2.68 8.06 March 2.03 2.55 2.46 2.68 8.94 April 2.01 2.60 2.46 2.69 9.35 May 2.05 2.60 2.45 2.72 11.02 June 2.07 2.65 2.48 2.73 10.08 July 2.11 2.73 2.53 2.73 7.91 August 2.17 2.73 2.57 2.75 7.00 September 2.24 2.71 2.62 2.76 5.34 October 2.23 2.71 2.62 2.77 5.73 November 2.33 2.57 2.64 2.80 6.06 December 2.42 2.50 2.68 2.81 4.85 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture (End of the report)
Posted: 18 March 2011, last updated 19 March 2011

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