Japan's Economic DI rose 0.3 points to 35.5

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Posted on: 12 Oct 2011

Economic DI rose 0.3 points to 35.5 from the previous month, improving for the first time in two months. The domestic economy remains on a mild recovery path.Reconstruction demand brought "Tohoku" to the top ofthe nation for the first time

TDB Economic Trends Research (Research & Summary for September 2011) Economic DI rose 0.3 points to 35.5 from the previous month, improving for the first time in two months --The domestic economy remains on a mild recovery path. Reconstruction demand brought "Tohoku" to the top of the nation for the first time -- By industry: ?Manufacturing? shows only a marginal improvement (Respondents: 22,909, Valid responses: 11,028, Response rate: 48.1%, Survey started in May 2002) while ?retail? experiences its first downturn in six months < Overview of September 2011: Recovery > ?Manufacturing? (37.1, up 0.3 points from a month earlier) Improved for the first The Economic DI (Economic DI: 0?100, 50 point is the threshold of assessment) in time in two months thanks to a steady recovery in production activities. Sep ?Transportation Machinery, Equipment? ranked first of the twelve manufacturing tember 2011 was 35.5, up 0.3 points from a month earlier while improving for the sectors by size and level of improvement. first time in two months. The domestic economy remains on a mild recovery path, However, the severe appreciation of the yen dampened the recovery of corporate however resilience is weakening with a deteriorating export environment and sluggish production and shipping activities and, as a result, ?manufacturing? was unable to domestic demand. return to its pre-earthquake disaster levels. < Future Outlook: Leveling Off Likely> ?Wholesale? (35.3, up 0.4) Improved for the first time in two months as cargo The projected DI was up 0.3 points from this month to 35.8 for ?one month later,? movement increased with reconstruction demand, but its improvement per se was down 0.2 points to 35.3 for ?three months later,? and up 1.1 points to 36.6 for ?six minimal due to growing uncertainties in the US and European economies and the months later.? Although reconstruction demand will be a driving force for domestic influence of the weak domestic economy. demand, a temporary lull in the economy may set in due to a decline in domestic demand resilience and the weak tone of foreign demand. ?Construction? (31.6, up 0.9) Improved for the fifth consecutive month with the increase in demand in connection with reconstruction and nationwide energy saving ????? ?? ?? ?? ??? ????? ?? ?? ??? ?? and seismic retrofitting. ? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??????? ???? ???? ?? ?? ??? ?? ???? ???? ??? ?Retail? (33.7, down 1.3) A reactionary decline in summer demand continued ??????? amidst typhoon damage, prolonged nuclear accident and the flagging income and ???? ???? ???? ???? ????? ?? ??? ?? ????????? ??? ???? ???? ?? employment situation. Consumer confidence did not improve as rising global food ? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ??? ???? ??? ???? prices and the new administration?s political outlook brought an awareness that the ??????? ?? ?? ???? ????? ?? ???? ?? ??? ??????? ????? burden on household finances is likely to increase in the future. ?Retail? worsened ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? for the first time in six months. ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trends Research September 1 2011 By size: Large, small-to-mid, micro companies improving for the first time in two months ?Large Firms? was up 0.6 points from the previous month to 37.9. ?Small-to-Medium-sized Firms? was up 0.3 points to 34.8 and ?Micro Firms? up 0.4 points to 31.9. All categories improved for the first time in two months. By region: With growing reconstruction demand, ?Tohoku? ranked at the top of the country?s 10 regions for the first time ?Tohoku? (38.3, up 1.9 points from a month earlier) Improved for the fifth consecutive month with growing reconstruction demand, moving up to first place among 10 regions nationwide for the first time. In particular, ?Miyagi,? having achieved the highest levels of ?construction,? ?real estate,? ?manufacturing,? and ?wholesale,? came out on top of the 47 prefectures for the second consecutive month. ?Tokai? (37.3, up 0.7) Improved for the fifth consecutive month as ?manufacturing? saw a mild improvement as the recovery in automobile-related manufacturing and other industries were relatively strong. ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trends Research September 2 2011 Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2 Ratio to the Sep Pr -10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 evious Month Total ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Large Firms ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ? ?? Small to Medium-sized Firms ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Micro Firms ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Ratio to the Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Previous Month Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Finance ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Construction ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Real Estate ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Textile,Textile Products,Clothing ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Construction Materials,Furniture, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products Pulp, Paper and Paper Products ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Publishing,Printing ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Manu ical ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???facturing Chem Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? General Machinery ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Electrical Machinery ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Transportation Machinery,Equipment ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Precision Machinery, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Medical Instruments and Equipment Other ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Total ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Food,Beverages ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Textile,Textile Products,Clothing ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Construction Materials, Furniture,Ceramics, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Stone and Clay Products Wholesale Paper Products,Stationery,Books ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Chemical ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Recycled Resources ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Steel,Nonferrous Metals, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Mining Products Machinery,Equipment ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Other ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Total ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trends Research September 3 2011 Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2 Ratio to the Sep-10 Oct Pr -10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 evious Month Food,Beverages ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Textile,Textile Products,Clothing ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Drugs,Sundries ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Furniture ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Electrical Household Appliances, Retail Information Machinery and ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Equipment Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Special Merchandise ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Various Merchandise ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Other ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ????? Total ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Transportation,Warehousing ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Restaurants ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Postal,Telecommunications ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Leasing,Rentals ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Lodging, Hotels ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Recreation ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Broadcasting ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Service Maintenance,Guarding,Testing ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Advertising ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Information ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Labor Dispatching ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Special Services ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Medical,Welfare,Public Health ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Education ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Other ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Total ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Other ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Ratio to the Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Previous Month Hokkaido ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Tohoku ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? kitakanto min ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???amikanto Hokuriku ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Tokai ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Kinki ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Chugoku ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Shikoku ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Kyushu ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trends Research September 4 2011 Appendix 1. Research Subjects(Corporations:22,909 Valid responses:11,028,Response rate:48.1%) 1.Region Hokkaido 588 Tokai 1,196 Tohoku 611 Kinki 1,815 kitaKanto 697 Chugoku 692 minamikanto 3,613 Shikoku 373 Hokuriku 543 Kyushu 900 Total 11,028 2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business) Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries 44 Food,Beverages 90 Fin 138 Textile,Textile Products,Clothingance 40 C 1,503 Drugs,Sundriesonstruction 18 Rea 291 Furniturel Estate Reta 15il Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed 480368 Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment 39 Textile,Textile Products,Clothing 125 Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts 66 Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products 247 Special Merchandise 154 Pulp, Paper and Paper Products 120 Various Merchandise 68 Publishing,Printing 202 Others 6 Chemical Manuf 419 Transportation,Warehousing 414acturing 3,223 Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining 521 Restaurants 35 Gene ral Machinery 460 Telecommunications 14 Electrical Machinery 373 Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat 8 Transportation Machinery,Equipment 96 Leasing,Rentals 138 Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment 76 Lodging, Hotels 40 Others 100 Recreation 62 Food,Beverages 406 BroadcastingServic 19e Textile,Textile Products 1,384,Clothing 225 Maintenance,Guarding,Testing 150 Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products 390 Advertising 144 Paper Products,Stationery,Books Wh 125 Information 428 olesale 3,959 Chemical 350 Labor Dispatching 65 Recycled Resources 24 Special Services 217 Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products 383 Medical,Welfare,Public Health 110 Machinery,Equipment 1,076 Education 23 Others 422 Others 148 Others 33 Total 11,028 3.Size Large Firms 2,573 23.3% Small to Medium-sized Firms 8,455 76.7% micro Firms 2,408 21.8% Total 11,028 45.2% ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trends Research September 5 2011 A DI over 50 is in the range of ?Good.? A score under 50 is ?Bad.? The number 50 is the 2. Research Items dividing point (?Neither Good or Bad?). All numbers are rounded off to the hundredth. *Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year) It should be noted that no weight is given to a company?s responses based on its size. *Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity Calculations are made according to a ?one company, one vote? rule. utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours) . * Survey on Corporate Attitudes toward Reduction in Summertime Electric Power For example, all corporations rated ?Very Good?. Consumption DI=6/6x100(%)=100 *Survey on Corporate Attitudes towards Business Forecasts for Fiscal 2011 All corporations rated ?Neither Good nor Bad?. DI=3/6x100(%)=50 3. Research Period and Methodology . Internet-based survey conducted Sep 16 through 30 , 2011. . Size Classification The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index Small to Medium-Sized Firms Industry Large Firms Micro Firms (Micro Firms included) Research Purpose/Researched Terms Manufacturing and Capital: More than 300 million yen Capital: Below 300 million yen TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly statistical Other Industries* and or No. of Employee: Below 20 No. of Employee: Over 300 No. of Employee: Below 300 survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on their general business Wholesale Trade Capital: More than 100 million yen Capital: Below 100 million yen and or No. of Employee: Below 5 activities including the current condition and future outlook of the industry business No. of Employee: Over 100 No. of Employee: Below 100 Retail Trade Capital: More than 50 million yen Capital: Below 50 million yen performance and operating climate. The primary purpose of such a survey is to and or No. of Employee: Below 5 assess the current state of Japan?s economy. No. of Employee: Over 50 No. of Employee: Below 50 Service** Capital: More than 50 million yen Capital: Below 50 million yen and or No. of Employee: Below 5 Selection of the Subject Corporations No. of Employee: Over 100 No. of Employee: Below 100 Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in the Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sized corporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act. survey. Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act. DI Formula The DI (Diffusion Index) is calculated by attaching a number (in parenthesis in the diagram below) to each of seven possible responses. Then multiplying the percentage of each response by the appropriate number, and adding the results. Very Moderately Neither Moderately Very Bad Good Bad Bad Good or Bad Good Good ( 0 ) ( 1/6 ) ( 2/6 ) ( 3/6 ) ( 4/6 ) ( 5/6 ) ( 6/6 ) DI=50 0 16.7 33.3 Dividing 66.7 83.3 100 point ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trends Research September 6 2011
Posted: 12 October 2011

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