Japanese Economic Trends: Economic DI rose to 36.1

A Lastest News about Economic Trends/Outlook in Japan

Posted on: 14 Nov 2011

Economic DI rose to 36.1, improving for the second consecutive month while the domestic economy remained on the track to recovery

TDB Economic Trends Research (Research & Summary for October 2011) ? Economic DI rose to 36.1, improving for the second consecutive month while the domestic economy remained on the track to recovery ? ?Tohoku? keeps the lead, supported by reconstruction demand, but the domestic economy is lacking in momentum with few positive factors? (Respondents: 22,924, Valid responses: 10,746, Response rate: 46.9%, Survey started in May 2002) By industry: While the ?manufacturing? industry continued to improve, automobile and consumer-electronics related sectors worsened < Overview of October 2011: Recovery> ??Eight industries, including ?manufacturing? and ?retail,? improved while two industries The Economic DI (Economic DI: 0?100, 50-point is the threshold of assessment) in including ?agriculture, forestry, fisheries? worsened. October 2011 was 36 .1, up 0.6 points from a month earlier, improving for the second ???Manufacturing? (37.4, up 0.3 points from a month earlier) Improved for the second consecutive month. The domestic economy remains on the track to recovery; however, since consecutive month thanks to a steady recovery in production activities. The improvement was there are no other positive factors, the domestic economy is lacking in momentum. limited to 0.3 points due to the unstable economic trends in the US and Europe, the < Future Outlook: Leveling Off Likely> appreciation of the yen, and adverse effects on production facilities and component supply by The projected DI was up 0.9 points from this month to 37.0 for ?one month later,? up 0.3 flood damages in Thailand. points to 36.4 for ?three months later,? and up 2.0 points to 38.1 for ?six months later.? The ???Construction? (32.8, up 1.2) Improved for the sixth consecutive month with not only the effect of reconstruction demand and new economic-stimulus packages enhancing the general increase in reconstruction demand in affected areas but also a growing demand for economic level may be limited, and it is likely that both domestic and foreign demands will be energy-saving construction and seismic retrofit nationwide. unable to remove a sense of stagnation, thus beginning to level off. ???Retail? (35.3, up 1.6) Improved for the first time in two months as, in addition to seasonal demand, the strengthening of the radioactive inspection system spread in production and distribution processes and therefore the negative impact of the earthquake disaster and nuclear accident on consumer confidence was beginning to relax. ????? ??? ?? ?? ????? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?????Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries? (35.3, down 3.3) Deteriorated for the first time in three ? ??? ???? ??? ?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???? months as there still remained unsolved radioactive contamination problems caused by the ??????? ???? ??? ?? ?? ?? ???? ???? ?? ??? nuclear accident and harmful rumors regarding it, and the new cabinet?s movement towards ??????? negotiation for TPP participation became a downward factor. ???? ???? ???? ???? ????? ?? ?? ?? ?? ????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ? ????? ??? ???? ??? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ???? ??????? ?? ??? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??? ??????? ????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trend Research October 2011 1 By size: Large, small-to-mid, micro companies improving for the second consecutive month ???Large Firms? was up 0.4 points from the previous month to 38.3. ?Small-to-Medium-sized Firms? up 0.6 points to 35.4 and ?Micro Firms? up 1.1 points to 33.0. All categories improved for the second consecutive month. By region: With a growing demand for reconstruction, ?Tohoku? ranked top of the country?s 10 regions for the second consecutive month ???Tohoku? (39.2, up 0.9 points from a month earlier) Improved for the sixth consecutive month with a growing reconstruction demand, remaining top among 10 regions nationwide for the second consecutive month. In particular, ?Miyagi? came out on top of 47 prefectures for the third consecutive month. In addition, ?Fukushima? (40.2) ranked fourth. Tohoku is continuously making improvements centering on the affected areas. ???Tokai? (37.5, up 0.2) Improved for the sixth consecutive month. ?Manufacturing? within the region slightly worsened because automobile-related manufacturing was adversely affected by the strong yen and by flood damages in Thailand, but remained on a relatively high level. Other industries showed strong results as well. ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trend Research October 2011 2 Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2 Ratio to the Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Previous Month Total ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Large Firms ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Small to Medium-sized Firms ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Micro Firms ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Ratio to the Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Previous Month Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Finance ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Construction ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Real Estate ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Textile,Textile Products,Clothing ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Cons truction Materials,Furniture, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products Pulp, Paper and Paper Products ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Publishing,Printing ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Manufacturing Chemical ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? S teel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? General Machinery ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Electrical Machinery ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Transportation Machinery,Equipment ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Precision Machinery, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Me dical Instruments and Equipment Other ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Total ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Food,Beverages ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Textile,Textile Products,Clothing ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Construction Materials, Furniture,Ceramics, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Stone and Clay Products Wholesale Paper Products,Stationery,Books ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Chemical ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Recycled Resources ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Steel,Nonferrous Metals, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? Mining Products Machinery,Equipment ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Other ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? Total ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trend Research October 2011 3 Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2 Ratio to the Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Previous Month Food,Beverages ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Textile,Textile Products,Clothing ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Drugs,Sundries ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Furniture ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Electrical Household Appliances, Retail Information Machinery and ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Eq uipment Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Special Merchandise ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Various Merchandise ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Other ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Total ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Transportation,Warehousing ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Restaurants ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Postal,Telecommunications ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Leasing,Rentals ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Lodging, Hotels ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Recreation ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Broadcasting ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Service Maintenance,Guarding,Testing ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Advertising ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Information ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Labor Dispatching ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Special Services ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? M edical,Welfare,Public Health ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Education ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Other ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Total ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Other ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Ratio to the Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Previous Mo nth Hokkaido ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Tohoku ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? kitakanto min ?? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???ami ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ??kanto Hokuriku ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Tokai ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Kinki ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? Chugoku ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Shikoku ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? Kyushu ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trend Research October 2011 4 ????? ? Research Subjects(Corporations:22,924? Valid responses:10,746,Response rate:46.9%)? 1.Region Hokkaido 571 Tokai 1,150 Tohoku 590 Kinki 1,781 kitaKanto 685 Chugoku 666 minamikanto 3,528 Shikoku 357 Hokuriku 542 Kyushu 876 Total 10,746 2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business) Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries 42 Food,Beverages 88 Finance 134 Textile,Textile Products,Clothing 39 Const 1,472 Drugs,Sundries 21 ruction Rea 269 Furniturel Estate Reta 14il Food 480,Beverages,Livestock Feed 353 Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment 36 Textile,Textile Products,Clothing 124 Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts 64 Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products 243 Special Merchandise 143 Pulp, Paper and Paper Products 121 Various Merchandise 65 Publishing,Printing 195 Others 5 Chemical M 420 Transportation,Warehousing 407anufacturing 3,223 Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining 511 Restaurants 35 General Machinery 450 Telecommunications 12 Electrical Machinery 363 Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat 7 Transportation Machinery,Equipment 90 Leasing,Rentals 138 Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment 72 Lodging, Hotels 42 Others 91 Recreation 59 Food,Beverages 407 BroadcastingSe 19rvice Textile 1,384,Textile Products,Clothing 227 Maintenance,Guarding,Testing 151 Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products 395 Advertising 136 Paper Products,Stationery,Books Wh 116 Information 412 olesale 3,959 Chemical 331 Labor Dispatching 57 Recycled Resources 26 Special Services 220 Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products 367 Medical,Welfare,Public Health 101 Machinery,Equipment 1,048 Education 24 Others 408 Others 144 Others 32 Total 10,746 3.Size Large Firms 2,518 23.4% Small to Medium-sized Firms 8,228 76.6% micro Firms 2,326 21.6% Total 10,746 45 .1% ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trend Research October 2011 5 2.Research Items ? *Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year) ? Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity A DI over 50 is in the range of ?Good.? A score under 50 is ?Bad.? The number 50 is the utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours) dividing point (?Neither Good or Bad?). All numbers are rounded off to the hundredth. It ? Survey on Corporate Attitudes toward Reduction in Summertime Electric Power should be noted that no weight is given to a company?s responses based on its size. Consumption Calculations are made according to a ?one company, one vote? rule. ? Survey on Corporate Attitudes towards Tax Hike for Reconstruction . For example, all corporations rated ?Very Good?. 3.Research Period and Methodology Internet-based survey conducted Oct 19 through 31 , 2011. DI=6/6x100(%)=100 . All corporations rated ?Neither Good nor Bad?. DI=3/6x100(%)=50 The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index Research Purpose/Researched Terms . TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly statistical survey Size Classification conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on their general business activities Small to Medium-Sized Firms including the current condition and future outlook of the industry business performance and Industry Large Firms Micro Firms (Micro Firms included) operating climate. The primary purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Manufacturing and Capital: More than 300 million yen Capital: Below 300 million yen Other Industries* and or No. of Employee: Below 20 No. of Employee: Over 300 No. of Employee: Below 300 Japan?s economy. Wholesale Trade Capital: More than 100 million yen Capital: Below 100 million yen and or No. of Employee: Below 5 Selection of the Subject Corporations No. of Employee: Over 100 No. of Employee: Below 100 Retail Trade Capital: More than 50 million yen Capital: Below 50 million yen and or No. of Employee: Below 5 Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in the survey. No. of Employee: Over 50 No. of Employee: Below 50 Service** Capital: More than 50 million yen Capital: Below 50 million yen DI Fo and or No. of Employee: Below 5rmula No. of Employee: Over 100 No. of Employee: Below 100 The DI (Diffusion Index) is calculated by attaching a number (in parenthesis in the diagram Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sized corporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act. below) to each of seven possible responses. Then multiplying the percentage of each Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act. response by the appropriate number, and adding the results. Very Moderately Neither Moderately Very Bad Good Bad Bad Good or Bad Good Good ( 0 ) ( 1/6 ) ( 2/6 ) ( 3/6 ) ( 4/6 ) ( 5/6 ) ( 6/6 ) DI=50 0 16.7 33.3 Dividing 66.7 83.3 100 point ? ©TEIKOKU DATABANK, LTD. 2011 TDB Economic Trend Research October 2011 6
Posted: 14 November 2011

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