Argentina- Livestock and Products Semi-annual 2013

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Argentina

Posted on: 21 Mar 2013

Argentine cattle and beef projection for 2013 reported in September 2012 remains practically unchanged.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 2/28/2013 GAIN Report Number: Argentina Livestock and Products Semi-annual 2013 Approved By: Melinda Sallyards Prepared By: Ken Joseph Report Highlights: Argentine cattle and beef projection for 2013 reported in September 2012 remains practically unchanged. Commodities: Animal Numbers, Cattle Meat, Beef and Veal Production: Cow-calf operations are expected to slow down the pace of herd rebuilding as the price paid for calves in 2013 is expected to remain quite similar to the past two years. During this period, the cost of production increased approximately 25 percent annually. Returns are still positive, but rapidly phasing out. Production costs for 2013 are expected to continue increasing. Returns for cattle finishers and feedlots are expected to improve in 2013 as fed cattle prices are forecast to recover from the lows of the last part of 2012 and to the fact that feeder cattle prices are expected to remain stable. Cattle slaughter for 2013 is raised by 100,000 head from USDA’s official number. Final slaughter could be even slightly higher. Due to smaller returns in the cow-calf business, female slaughter is expected to increase more rapidly than earlier anticipated. Beef production for 2013 is forecast at 2.8 million tons, 20,000 tons higher than USDA’s number as a consequence of a higher slaughter. Consumption: Domestic consumption remains at 2.6 million tons, nearly the same as USDA’s number. As a result of a larger herd, a higher slaughter, and a low volume of exports, per capita consumption is rising. Consumption in 2013 is expected at 63 kilos. Poultry and to a lower extent pork, continue to compete strongly with beef. Trade: Exports for 2013 are still projected at a low 180,000 tons. The sector continues to experience government export limitations and the consequences of high cattle prices due to an over-valued local currency which hurts the sector’s competitiveness. In most cases exporters prefer to sell domestically than to export. Exports of thermoprocessed beef to the US are lower as the largest exported plant is still suspended given FSIS’ finding of ivermectine residues in shipped product. Exports under the 30,000 ton Hilton Quota will continue but traders are skeptical about its complete fulfillment. In other markets (e.g. Chile, the Russian Federation, Israel), Argentina faces strong competition from neighboring Uruguay and Paraguay. Argentina has presented all the documentation to access EU’s High Quality Beef Quota – 481 MT, but so far it has not been authorized to export. Argentine beef exports in 2012 totaled 164,000 tons, slightly lower than USDA’s number. This number differs from Global Trade Atlas because Post deducts processed offal exports under HTS 160250. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Animal Numbers, Cattle Argentina 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Total Cattle Beg. Stks 48,156 48,156 49,597 49,597 51,097 51,195 Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 Beef Cows Beg. Stocks 19,100 19,100 20,000 20,000 20,900 20,900 Production (Calf Crop) 13,100 13,100 13,800 13,800 14,200 14,200 Total Imports 1 1 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 61,257 61,257 63,397 63,397 65,297 65,395 Total Exports 0 0 0 2 0 0 Cow Slaughter 2,570 2,570 2,700 2,900 3,200 3,600 Calf Slaughter 3,040 3,040 3,600 3,500 3,700 3,500 Other Slaughter 5,450 5,450 5,400 5,200 5,500 5,400 Total Slaughter 11,060 11,060 11,700 11,600 12,400 12,500 Loss 600 600 600 600 600 600 Ending Inventories 49,597 49,597 51,097 51,195 52,297 52,295 Total Distribution 61,257 61,257 63,397 63,397 65,297 65,395 1000 HEAD, PERCENT Meat, Beef and Veal Argentina 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Slaughter (Reference) 11,060 11,060 11,700 11,600 12,400 12,500 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production 2,530 2,530 2,620 2,620 2,780 2,800 Total Imports 3 3 2 2 2 2 Total Supply 2,533 2,533 2,622 2,622 2,782 2,802 Total Exports 213 213 170 164 180 180 Human Dom. Consumption 2,320 2,320 2,452 2,458 2,602 2,622 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 2,320 2,320 2,452 2,458 2,602 2,622 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 2,533 2,533 2,622 2,622 2,782 2,802 1000 HEAD, 1000 MT CWE, PERCENT, PEOPLE, KG
Posted: 21 March 2013

See more from Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Argentina

Expert Views    
Fresh Deciduous Fruit Semi-annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Food Processing Ingredients   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Grain and Feed Update   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Citrus Annual 2011   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Grain and Feed Update 2012   By Foreign Agricultural Service