Oilseeds and Products Update - Lock Up Report

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Argentina

Posted on: 24 Nov 2012

Soybean area and production for marketing year 2012/13 are maintained at 19.7 million hectares and 55 million metric tons.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 10/26/2012 GAIN Report Number: Argentina Oilseeds and Products Update Lock-up Report Approved By: Melinda Sallyards Prepared By: Brooke Markley Report Highlights: Soybean area and production for marketing year 2012/13 are maintained at 19.7 million hectares and 55 million metric tons, respectively, in-line with official USDA estimates. Planting has been delayed due to excessive moisture this season. Area for sunflower is adjusted downward to 1.8 million hectares, 200,000 ha less than the USDA official estimate, based on official estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Post: Commodities: Buenos Aires Oilseed, Soybean (Local) Meal, Soybean (Local) Oil, Soybean (Local) Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Oil, Sunflowerseed Author Defined: Soybeans: Lots of rain continues to be the theme this season. Many producers are still waiting until the fields dry out a bit before they can get in and start planting in the main growing region. Although, some planting has begun in the marginal areas and in the northern provinces where too much rain hasn’t been the issue. Soybean area for marketing year 2012/13 is estimated at 19.7 million hectares. Although many sources believe this number could rise as the season goes on. However, if rains continue, in the end, the total area could be less if flooded fields are unable to be planted. It is still too early to tell and there is plenty of time for producers to start planting. Production remains steady at 55 million metric tons based on average yields. Many contacts expect there may be problems with diseases and pests due to the humid conditions and also expect costs of production to increase in order to control these conditions. The charts below depict cumulative annual rainfall by province year-to-date comparing last year with this year. As you can see, in the first chart, there has been substantially more rainfall this year compared to last. These provinces historically represent more than 85 percent of the soybean production area. The second chart shows rainfall in the northern provinces and more marginal growing regions. This year there is less rain than the previous year. Source: Ministry of Agriculture weekly report, October 18, 2012 Source: Ministry of Agriculture weekly report, October 18, 2012 For MY2012/2013, post estimates exports to be lower than the USDA official estimate, 11 MMT compared to 12.325 MMT. Since there have been policy changes from the government with the goal to provide incentive to the crushing industry and promote crushing at full capacity, it is likely that more soybeans will be crushed in the coming year (for more information, see policy section of September’s Oilseeds and Products Update). Post maintains its crush estimate at 42 MMT (2.7 MMT above the USDA official number). Soybean oil and meal production are also up, based on the increased crush estimate. Sunflowerseed: Sunflowerseed planting is 36 percent complete according to the Ministry of Agriculture’s most recent weekly report. Total area for sunflowerseed is lowered by 200,000 hectares to 1.8 million hectares. Since there has been so much rain, producers in some of the traditional sunflowerseed areas of the Buenos Aires province have decided to wait to plant either corn or soybeans instead. There are also lingering fears of parrot and pigeon damage as seen in previous years and with a wet summer, the rains could have a negative effect on pollination. Production is adjusted accordingly based on average yields to 3.6 million metric tons. Planting Progress, October 18, 2012 Sunflowerseed Local Marketing Year Area Planted From: 11/12 12/13 11/12 12/13 10/11/12 10/18/12 Province Percentage Hectares Percentage Buenos Aires 20 6 190,705 52,260 0 6 Córdoba 10 13 4,001 5,280 10 13 Entre Ríos 76 67 6,548 6,380 67 67 La Pampa 5 2 17,014 4,170 0 2 Santa Fe 99 99 179,750 181,000 99 99 Other 82 91 233,298 395,600 90 91 Total 34% 36% 631,316 644,690 32% 36% Source: MAGyP, Weekly Report, 10/18/2012 Peanuts: There are no changes for peanut production this month. Oilseed, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 18,300 18,300 18,600 18,600 19,700 19,700 Area Harvested 18,300 18,300 17,500 17,500 19,700 19,700 Beginning Stocks 4,507 4,507 4,022 4,010 2,522 2,010 Production 49,000 49,000 41,000 41,000 55,000 55,000 MY Imports 13 13 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 53,520 53,520 45,022 45,010 57,522 57,010 MY Exports 10,389 10,389 6,300 6,500 12,325 11,000 MY Exp. to EU 35 35 35 35 50 100 Crush 37,509 37,521 34,700 35,000 39,300 42,000 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1,600 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,650 1,650 Total Dom. Cons. 39,109 39,121 36,200 36,500 40,950 43,650 Ending Stocks 4,022 4,010 2,522 2,010 4,247 2,360 Total Distribution 53,520 53,520 45,022 45,010 57,522 57,010 1000 HA, 1000 MT Meal, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 37,509 37,521 34,700 35,000 39,300 42,000 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 2,532 2,891 3,501 3,862 3,136 3,392 Production 29,181 29,183 27,100 27,290 30,625 32,750 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 31,713 32,074 30,601 31,152 33,761 36,142 MY Exports 27,485 27,485 26,700 27,000 29,980 32,500 MY Exp. to EU 12,658 12,658 12,700 12,700 13,200 15,000 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 727 727 765 760 770 770 Total Dom. Cons. 727 727 765 760 770 770 Ending Stocks 3,501 3,862 3,136 3,392 3,011 2,872 Total Distribution 31,713 32,074 30,601 31,152 33,761 36,142 1000 MT, PERCENT Oil, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 37,509 37,521 34,700 35,000 39,300 42,000 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 225 225 391 238 191 78 Production 7,148 7,148 6,610 6,670 7,485 8,000 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 7,373 7,373 7,001 6,908 7,676 8,078 MY Exports 4,227 4,300 3,790 3,790 4,035 4,500 MY Exp. to EU 275 425 300 300 350 435 Industrial Dom. Cons. 2,385 2,450 2,650 2,650 3,000 3,000 Food Use Dom. Cons. 370 385 370 390 371 400 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 2,755 2,835 3,020 3,040 3,371 3,400 Ending Stocks 391 238 191 78 270 178 Total Distribution 7,373 7,373 7,001 6,908 7,676 8,078 1000 MT, PERCENT Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Argentina 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: Mar 2012 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 1,740 1,740 1,850 1,875 2,000 1,800 Area Harvested 1,740 1,740 1,823 1,875 2,000 1,875 Beginning Stocks 242 242 110 315 52 217 Production 3,670 3,670 3,340 3,600 4,000 3,600 MY Imports 9 10 20 20 20 20 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,921 3,922 3,470 3,935 4,072 3,837 MY Exports 74 70 65 65 65 65 MY Exp. to EU 26 20 20 20 20 20 Crush 3,680 3,480 3,300 3,600 3,700 3,500 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 57 57 53 53 53 55 Total Dom. Cons. 3,737 3,537 3,353 3,653 3,753 3,555 Ending Stocks 110 315 52 217 254 217 Total Distribution 3,921 3,922 3,470 3,935 4,072 3,837 1000 HA, 1000 MT Meal, Sunflowerseed Argentina 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: Mar 2012 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 3,680 3,480 3,300 3,600 3,700 3,500 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 45 45 193 100 138 130 Production 1,632 1,552 1,450 1,600 1,625 1,570 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,677 1,597 1,643 1,700 1,763 1,700 MY Exports 745 758 730 800 900 800 MY Exp. to EU 390 500 390 500 400 500 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 739 739 775 770 725 800 Total Dom. Cons. 739 739 775 770 725 800 Ending Stocks 193 100 138 130 138 100 Total Distribution 1,677 1,597 1,643 1,700 1,763 1,700 1000 MT, PERCENT Oil, Sunflowerseed Argentina 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: Mar 2012 Market Year Begin: Mar 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 3,680 3,480 3,300 3,600 3,700 3,500 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 308 311 427 405 330 90 Production 1,551 1,462 1,367 1,525 1,525 1,470 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,859 1,773 1,794 1,930 1,855 1,560 MY Exports 978 906 980 1,350 1,050 1,000 MY Exp. to EU 200 270 170 270 170 270 Industrial Dom. Cons. 2 2 2 0 2 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 437 445 467 475 500 475 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 15 15 15 15 15 15 Total Dom. Cons. 454 462 484 490 517 490 Ending Stocks 427 405 330 90 288 70 Total Distribution 1,859 1,773 1,794 1,930 1,855 1,560 1000 MT, PERCENT
Posted: 24 November 2012

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