Oilseeds and Products Update

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Argentina

Posted on: 22 Dec 2012

Soybean area for marketing year 2012/13 is adjusted to 19.8 million hectares, 100,000 hectares above the USDA official estimates.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 11/30/2012 GAIN Report Number: Argentina Oilseeds and Products Update Lock-up Report Approved By: Melinda Sallyards Prepared By: Brooke Markley Report Highlights: Soybean area for marketing year 2012/13 is adjusted to 19.8 million hectares, 100,000 hectares above the USDA official estimates, due to additional area previously dedicated to sunflowerseed to be planted with soybeans. Planting continues to be delayed due to excessive moisture this season. Area for sunflower is adjusted downward to 1.7 million hectares, 100,000 ha less than the USDA official estimate, based on official estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture and reports from Post contacts. Peanut area is estimated at 325,000 hectares. Post: Commodities: Buenos Aires Oilseed, Soybean (Local) Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Oilseed, Peanut Author Defined: Soybeans: Soybean area is raised by 100,000 hectares to 19.8 million hectares, due to the reduction in area for sunflowerseed that will now be dedicated to soybeans. It is possible that area could increase up to 20 million hectares or drop anywhere between 5 and 10 percent over the next couple of months depending on final planted area and effects of diseases. This year Argentine cropland is experiencing differing conditions. In the north, there is drought, in central west Buenos Aires province (less than 10% of total soybean area) there is flooding, and in other areas conditions are good. Sources are reporting frogeye leaf spot (Cercospora sojina) on soybean plants in many areas. This fungal disease was prevalent in MY2009/10 and develops due to excessive moisture and humidity. If left untreated, this can reduce yields by up to 1.5 kilos/ton and can affect seed quality. There are also reports of invasive weeds, such as Argentine Fleabane (Conyza bonariensis) in some areas. This year, producers are spraying more fungicides, herbicides and insecticides. The development and control of these diseases will be under close watch throughout the year. It is still too early to tell how yields will be affected in the different parts of the country. It is important to remember that last year, because of the extreme heat and lack of moisture, planting was delayed through the first part of January. The month of December will help define what will happen throughout the rest of the growing season. Sunflowerseed: Sunflowerseed has already been affected by the excessive moisture this season. This month, Post lowered planted area by another 100,000 hectares bringing total planted area to 1.7 million hectares. Rain and flooding in the western part of the province of Buenos Aires and eastern part of the province of La Pampa has caused many producers to abandon sunflower planting intentions due to extreme soil moisture, flooding of low fields and inaccessibility of some fields due to flood damaged access roads. It is widely expected that 50% of unplanted area will go to either soy or corn, and the rest will be left unplanted altogether. Since the initial estimations for this year, this is a 15 percent drop for a total of 300,000 hectares. Post estimates that approximated 100,000 hectares will go to soybean production. Fields with excessive moisture will be dedicated to corn. Sunflower production is adjusted accordingly to 3.4 million metric tons, based on average yields. The Ministry of Agriculture’s recent weekly report estimates planted area to reach 1.75 million hectares, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange shows estimated area to reach 1.8 million hectares. Planting Progress, November 29, 2012 Sunflowerseed Local Marketing Year Area Planted From: 11/12 12/13 11/12 12/13 11/22/12 11/29/12 Province Percentage Hectares Percentage Buenos Aires 98 82 927,525 614,080 77 82 Córdoba 100 87 40,900 32,050 69 87 Entre Ríos 100 100 8,600 8,350 100 100 La Pampa 94 72 337,257 288,350 41 72 Santa Fe 100 100 182,000 182,500 100 100 Other 100 99 284,510 444,650 98 99 Total 98% 87% 1,780,792 1,569,980 78% 87% Source: MAGyP, Weekly Report, 11/29/2012 Peanuts: Peanut area is estimated at 325,000 hectares, 25,000 ha lower than the USDA official estimate. Based on the Ministry of Agriculture’s November 29th weekly report, peanut planting is nearly two thirds complete. Peanuts are in good condition in most areas. Total production is estimated at 1.2 million metric tons based on average yields. Planting Progress, November 29, 2012 Peanuts Area Planted: Area Planted From: To Date (11/29/12) Total Expected Area 11/22/12 11/29/12 Delegation Hectares Percentage Corrientes - - - - Buenos Aires 600 1,500 30 40 Jujuy - - - - Salta - - - - Santa Fe 100 200 30 50 San Luis 15,000 15,000 73 100 La Pampa 1,640 11,000 8 15 Laboulaye 87,993 152,000 44 58 Marcos Juarez - - - - Rio Cuarto 88,500 88,500 90 100 Villa Maria 23,264 46,000 41 51 Cordoba 199,753 286,500 58 70 Total 217,093 321,438 55% 67% Source: MAGyP, Weekly Report, 11/29/2012 Oilseed, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 18,300 18,300 18,600 18,600 19,700 19,800 Area Harvested 18,300 18,300 17,500 17,500 19,700 19,800 Beginning Stocks 4,507 4,507 4,022 4,022 2,475 2,010 Production 49,000 49,000 41,000 41,000 55,000 55,000 MY Imports 13 13 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 53,520 53,520 45,022 45,022 57,475 57,010 MY Exports 10,389 10,389 6,070 6,500 12,325 11,000 MY Exp. to EU 35 35 35 35 50 50 Crush 37,509 37,509 34,850 35,000 39,300 42,000 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1,600 1,600 1,627 1,500 1,650 1,650 Total Dom. Cons. 39,109 39,109 36,477 36,500 40,950 43,650 Ending Stocks 4,022 4,022 2,475 2,010 4,200 2,360 Total Distribution 53,520 53,520 45,022 45,010 57,475 57,010 1000 HA, 1000 MT Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Argentina 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: Mar 2012 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 1,740 1,740 1,850 1,875 1,800 1,700 Area Harvested 1,740 1,740 1,823 1,875 1,800 1,700 Beginning Stocks 242 242 105 105 0 7 Production 3,670 3,670 3,340 3,600 3,600 3,400 MY Imports 5 5 10 20 5 20 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,917 3,917 3,455 3,725 3,605 3,427 MY Exports 75 75 78 65 75 65 MY Exp. to EU 25 25 20 20 20 20 Crush 3,680 3,680 3,375 3,600 3,400 3,300 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 57 57 2 53 53 55 Total Dom. Cons. 3,737 3,737 3,377 3,653 3,453 3,355 Ending Stocks 105 105 0 7 77 7 Total Distribution 3,917 3,917 3,455 3,725 3,605 3,427 1000 HA, 1000 MT Oilseed, Peanut Argentina 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: Mar 2012 Market Year Begin: Mar 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 265 265 325 300 350 325 Area Harvested 265 265 307 300 350 325 Beginning Stocks 13 61 182 28 272 54 Production 1,051 736 990 950 1,250 1,200 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,064 797 1,172 978 1,522 1,254 MY Exports 720 650 700 700 800 900 MY Exp. to EU 460 375 475 400 525 400 Crush 132 100 170 200 235 200 Food Use Dom. Cons. 20 9 20 9 20 9 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 10 10 10 15 10 15 Total Dom. Cons. 162 119 200 224 265 224 Ending Stocks 182 28 272 54 457 130 Total Distribution 1,064 797 1,172 978 1,522 1,254 1000 HA, 1000 MT
Posted: 22 December 2012

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