Oilseeds and Products Update

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Argentina

Posted on: 13 Feb 2012

Soybean production for the 2011/12 marketing year (MY) is lowered from the official USDA number of 50.5 million metric tons (MMT) to 46.5 MMT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 1/30/2012 GAIN Report Number: Argentina Oilseeds and Products Update February Lock-up Approved By: Melinda Sallyards Prepared By: Brooke Markley Report Highlights: Soybean production for the 2011/12 marketing year (MY) is lowered from the official USDA number of 50.5 million metric tons (MMT) to 46.5 MMT. The main production areas have severe water deficits and despite sporadic rain showers, damage has been done. Based on lower production, exports and crush numbers are also dropped. Post: Buenos Aires Author Defined: Soybeans: FAS Buenos Aires’ production estimate for MY 2011/12 soybeans is 46.5 MMT, nearly a 10% drop from the USDA official number of 50.5 MMT. Intended planted area is adjusted upward by 100,000 to 18.8 million hectares. This is lower than Post’s previous number of 19 million hectares. Planting has not finished yet and it is expected that some second crop soy will not even be planted. In addition, producers who had originally planned to plant corn, switched to second crop soy. This makes up some of the lost area, but not enough to fully recover. It has been hot and dry since November with little relief in the major crop production area. There were two significant rains on January 10th and 11th, and again on January 22nd and 24th in the pampa humeda but they haven’t been big enough to remove the pessimism that lingers in the agricultural community. Northern Argentina and Southeastern Buenos Aires province are the only two areas that seem to have normal growing conditions this year for soybeans and corn and have not been affected heavily by the drought. It is important to keep in mind that even these areas are marginal. Rain is expected this week in the main growing region: Northwestern Buenos Aires province, Southern Santa Fe province and Southeastern Cordoba province. Below is a look at the water necessary in order to have good growing conditions. The first chart is from January 2011, and the second is from January 2012. Water deficit this year is much greater than last year, which means that more than 100 mm of rain is needed in order for the soybean crop to bounce back to normal yields. Source: Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, INTA Planting for second crop soybeans usually begins directly after the wheat harvest but this year many fields did not have sufficient soil moisture in December and planting was delayed. Likewise, many producers who had planned to produce late harvest corn, decided not to take the risk and switched to a low-quality second crop soy. After the rains on January 9th and 10th, a wave of second crop soybean planting resumed. Expecting rains during the week of January 23, producers planted soybeans on dry land hoping plants would emerge with the showers. There is still anywhere between 300,000 and 600,000 hectares left to be planted that for now these areas are dry and dusty wheat stubble. The longer planting is delayed, the higher the risk of frost. In the last two weeks the Agricultural Attaché traveled through northern Buenos Aires province, southeastern Cordoba, and southern Santa Fe province. These areas are the hardest hit by the drought and make up about 25 percent of the production area. Nearly all of the first crop soybeans are stunted, abnormally short and the rows are not covered. Some are flowering and some already have pods. Most of the first crop fields looked like what second crop soy normally looks like at this time of the year. Of second crop soy, most is very small and dry with severe symptoms of water deficit. Without rain, the second crop soy is in grave danger of burning to a crisp. Based on the Ministry of Agriculture’s weekly report and assessment of crop conditions of the entire country about 0.3 percent of the crop is in very good condition, 54 percent in good condition, 36 percent in average to poor condition, and about 10 percent in very bad condition. Average yields are adjusted downward to 2.47 tons/ha, and forecasted production is 46.5 MMT. S 35o50.040’ W062o52.742’ 1st crop soybeans S 34o50.217’ W061o34.071’ 1st crop soybeans Trenque Lauquen, Buenos Aires Lincoln, Buenos Aires S 34o17.914’ W062o43.069’ 1st crop soybeans S 34o08.656’ W063o24.036’ 2nd crop soybeans Rufino, Santa Fe Laboulaye, Cordoba Due to the drop in production and expected diminished supply, Post anticipates that exports of whole beans will likewise drop. MY2011/12 bean exports are lowered to 6.5 MMT from the USDA official number of 9.3 MMT. Furthermore crush is expected to drop slightly from 39.65 to 38 MMT. Many contacts in the trading industry indicate that producers will hold onto their beans until the price goes up higher. Crushers are already receiving negative margins but with so much investment in the crushing industry contacts indicate that a huge drop is unlikely. With less crush and less exports, there should be an increase in stocks. Crush for MY 2010/11 is lowered by 900,000 tons to 37 MMT. Through December 2011, 30.2 MMT have been crushed. In the remaining 3 months, is it expected that about 18 percent of the total crush will be finished off based on historical averages. Sunflowerseed: Contrary to the soybean situation, the majority of the sunflower crop is thriving given that it is a hardier crop that can resist dry weather and lack of rainfall more than soy can. Post maintains its estimate of 1,875,000 planted hectares, in line with the official USDA estimate. With average yields, production remains forecast at 3.2 MMT. Harvest has begun for sunflowers in the provinces of Paraná, northern Santa Fe, Chaco, and Santiago de Estero. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of Jan 26th, nearly 20 percent of the crop has been harvested. There are no other changes to sunflower crush or exports in this report. S 35o45.593’ W062o56.284’ Trenque Lauquen, Buenos Aires province, January 18, 2012 Peanuts: Peanuts are an even hardier crop than sunflowers and are even less affected by hot, dry weather. Production for peanuts is expected to not be affected by the drought at this point in time. Production remains at 1.1 MMT, planted on 300,000 hectares. Oilseed, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2010 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 18,800 18,800 18,300 18,300 18,700 18,800 Area Harvested 18,600 18,600 18,300 18,300 18,700 18,800 Beginning Stocks 4,495 4,298 4,507 4,307 3,630 4,157 Production 54,500 54,500 49,000 49,000 50,500 46,500 MY Imports 0 0 13 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 58,995 58,798 53,520 53,307 54,130 50,657 MY Exports 13,701 13,701 10,350 10,500 9,300 6,500 MY Exp. to EU 112 112 65 65 100 100 Crush 39,190 39,190 37,900 37,000 39,650 38,000 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1,597 1,600 1,640 1,650 1,650 1,650 Total Dom. Cons. 40,787 40,790 39,540 38,650 41,300 39,650 Ending Stocks 4,507 4,307 3,630 4,157 3,530 4,507 Total Distribution 58,995 58,798 53,520 53,307 54,130 50,657 1000 HA, 1000 MT Oil, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2010 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 39,190 39,190 37,900 37,000 39,650 38,000 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 160 160 225 225 238 290 Production 7,460 7,460 7,213 7,050 7,569 7,239 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 7,620 7,620 7,438 7,275 7,807 7,529 MY Exports 5,180 5,180 4,650 4,700 4,780 4,750 MY Exp. to EU 388 388 425 425 435 435 Industrial Dom. Cons. 1,850 1,850 2,200 1,900 2,525 2,200 Food Use Dom. Cons. 365 365 350 385 325 390 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 2,215 2,215 2,550 2,285 2,850 2,590 Ending Stocks 225 225 238 290 177 189 Total Distribution 7,620 7,620 7,438 7,275 7,807 7,529 1000 MT, PERCENT Meal, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2010 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 39,190 39,190 37,900 37,000 39,650 38,000 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 1,123 1,486 2,532 2,891 3,442 4,164 Production 30,493 30,489 29,510 29,000 30,920 29,750 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 31,616 31,975 32,042 31,891 34,362 33,914 MY Exports 28,384 28,384 27,850 27,000 29,920 30,000 MY Exp. to EU 10,592 14,700 13,100 14,850 14,000 15,000 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 700 700 750 727 742 750 Total Dom. Cons. 700 700 750 727 742 750 Ending Stocks 2,532 2,891 3,442 4,164 3,700 3,164 Total Distribution 31,616 31,975 32,042 31,891 34,362 33,914 1000 MT, PERCENT
Posted: 13 February 2012

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