Oilseeds and Products Update

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Argentina

Posted on: 18 Oct 2011

Soybean area for MY2011/12 is reduced to 19 million hectares indicating only a slight increase of about 3 percent from the previous year as more land is expected to be planted with corn. Soybean exports for MY2010/11 are bumped up by 2.2 MMT to 11.5 MMT due to the strong pace during the first six months of the year. Due to a sunflowerseed harvest with record yields and higher production than expected sunflower crush for 2010/11 is adjusted upward by 350,000 MT to 3.4 MMT. Peanut production is reduced for MY 2010/11 but area is expanded to 300,000 hectares for MY2011/12.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 9/29/2011 GAIN Report Number: Argentina Oilseeds and Products Update September Lock-up Report Approved By: Melinda Sallyards Prepared By: Brooke Markley Report Highlights: Soybean area for MY2011/12 is reduced to 19 million hectares indicating only a slight increase of about 3 percent from the previous year as more land is expected to be planted with corn. Soybean exports for MY2010/11 are bumped up by 2.2 MMT to 11.5 MMT due to the strong pace during the first six months of the year. Due to a sunflowerseed harvest with record yields and higher production than expected sunflower crush for 2010/11 is adjusted upward by 350,000 MT to 3.4 MMT. Peanut production is reduced for MY 2010/11 but area is expanded to 300,000 hectares for MY2011/12. Post: Commodities: Buenos Aires Oilseed, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Oil, Sunflowerseed Oilseed, Peanut Meal, Peanut Oil, Peanut Author Defined: Soybeans: Soybean planting for the marketing year (MY) 2011/12 has not begun yet. Sources indicate that planting will begin towards the end of October if there is sufficient rainfall to maintain adequate soil moisture. Post reduces the estimate for area planted to 19 million hectares with a production of 51 million metric tons (MMT). Corn area is expected to go up nearly 10 percent due to high prices and the need to rotate soybean fields to replace nutrients. This will compete with soybean expansion. However, there is still the lingering threat of another la niña year with hot, dry weather, so producers could decide at the last minute to plant soy as it is the most stable commodity. Area is likely to increase by a slight 3 percent from marketing year 2010/11. For MY2010/11, FAS Buenos Aires maintains its final production estimate at 49 MMT. Soybean exports for the same year are very strong with 5.3 MMT shipped April 2011 through July 2011 with 4.2 MMT more expected to be shipped by the first week of October based on official port data from the Ministry of Agriculture. This is already higher than the official USDA export estimate of 9.3 MMT. Argentina traditionally exports about 80 percent of its soybeans during the first 6 months of the marketing year. At this pace, FAS Buenos Aires bumps the export estimate to 11.5 MMT (an increase of 2.2 MMT from the official USDA estimate). Sunflowerseed: Sunflowerseed planting has begun for MY2011/12 with nearly 17 percent of the total intended area planted in the provinces of Santa Fe, Entre Rios, Chaco and San Luis (see planting progress table below). The soil moisture is adequate for continued planting and the majority of the seedlings are in good condition at the 2 to 6 leaf stage. FAS Buenos Aires estimates total area to be planted at 1,740,000 hectares based on official data from the Ministry of Agriculture. Planting Progress, September 22, 2011 Sunflowerseed Local Marketing Year Area Planted From: 10/11 11/12 10/11 11/12 9/15/11 9/22/11 Province Percentage Hectares Percentage Buenos Aires 0 0 - - 0 0 Córdoba 0 0 - - 0 0 Entre Ríos 53 38 9,268 3,440 28 38 La Pampa 0 0 - - 0 0 Santa Fe 78 78 135,2500 136,430 58 78 Other 27 57 67,392 157,470 52 57 Total 17% 17% 211,900 297,340 14% 17% Source: MAGyP, Weekly Report, 9/22/2011 Area for MY 2010/11 is adjusted to 1,700,000 ha, while production is bumped to 3.56 million metric tons. Last year was an exceptional year for sunflowers with average yields reaching a record of 2.1 kg/ha. Likewise, crush is raised to 3.4 MMT to compensate for the higher than expected harvest numbers. Official numbers from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that over 2.1 MMT has already been crushed during the first six months of the marketing year (March through August). Meal and oil are also adjusted with most of the extra supply expected to go towards exports. Peanuts: Like the last marketing year, this year everyone will be watching the weather hoping for adequate rainfall. Next week, there are forecasts for rainfall in Cordoba?s main peanut producing area. Contacts indicate that planting will begin the second week of October. Post estimates that 300,000 ha will be planted. If more land was available for peanut production, the estimate may even be higher. However, it is very difficult to rent land that has not been used for peanut production in years past. Soy still has the highest margins and many producers prefer to produce soy over any other commodity despite the fact that peanut prices are high and the U.S. crop is stressed. Based on historic average yields, production is forecast at 1.1 million metric tons (up 200,000 tons from the USDA official estimate). Exports will be bumped up to 800,000 tons and crush will go up to 250,000 based on the higher production estimate. Production for MY2010/11 is adjusted downward to 736,000 tons based on final official numbers from the Ministry of Agriculture (down from the USDA official estimate of 1 MMT). The final area harvested was estimated at 265,000 hectares and yields were slightly below average due to weather complications. For MY2010/11, crush is cut in half to 100,000 tons. Official data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows a total of 39,212 tons crushed during the first six months of the marketing year. Since crush is historically fairly even throughout the year, it is highly unlikely that 160,000 tons will be crushed in the last six months of the marketing year. Meal and oil production are adjusted accordingly. Most oil is exported and meal is used for residual feeding. Oilseed, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2010 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 18,800 18,800 18,300 18,300 19,300 19,000 Area Harvested 18,600 18,600 18,300 18,300 19,300 19,000 Beginning Stocks 4,495 4,298 4,507 4,307 4,242 1,832 Production 54,500 54,500 49,000 49,000 53,000 51,000 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 58,995 58,798 53,507 53,307 57,242 52,832 MY Exports 13,701 13,701 9,300 11,500 11,315 11,000 MY Exp. to EU 112 112 65 65 100 100 Crush 39,190 39,190 38,325 38,325 40,150 40,150 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1,597 1,600 1,640 1,650 1,650 1,650 Total Dom. Cons. 40,787 40,790 39,965 39,975 41,800 41,800 Ending Stocks 4,507 4,307 4,242 1,832 4,127 32 Total Distribution 58,995 58,798 53,507 53,307 57,242 52,832 1000 HA, 1000 MT Meal, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2010 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 39,190 39,190 38,325 38,325 40,150 40,150 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 1,123 1,486 2,528 2,891 2,836 3,199 Production 30,489 30,489 29,900 29,900 31,320 31,320 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 31,612 31,975 32,428 32,791 34,156 34,519 MY Exports 28,384 28,384 28,865 28,865 30,320 31,000 MY Exp. to EU 14,700 14,700 14,850 14,850 15,000 15,000 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 700 700 727 727 743 750 Total Dom. Cons. 700 700 727 727 743 750 Ending Stocks 2,528 2,891 2,836 3,199 3,093 2,769 Total Distribution 31,612 31,975 32,428 32,791 34,156 34,519 1000 MT, PERCENT Oil, Soybean (Local) Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2010 Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 39,190 39,190 38,325 38,325 40,150 40,150 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 155 155 206 206 175 206 Production 7,459 7,459 7,285 7,285 7,633 7,633 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 7,614 7,614 7,491 7,491 7,808 7,839 MY Exports 5,180 5,180 5,000 5,000 5,110 5,110 MY Exp. to EU 388 388 425 425 435 435 Industrial Dom. Cons. 1,850 1,850 1,930 1,900 2,133 2,133 Food Use Dom. Cons. 378 378 386 385 390 390 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 2,228 2,228 2,316 2,285 2,523 2,523 Ending Stocks 206 206 175 206 175 206 Total Distribution 7,614 7,614 7,491 7,491 7,808 7,839 1000 MT, PERCENT Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Mar 2010 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: May 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 1,500 1,543 1,695 1,700 1,650 1,740 Area Harvested 1,488 1,489 1,695 1,700 1,650 1,740 Beginning Stocks 812 812 242 162 650 227 Production 2,300 2,220 3,560 3,560 2,800 2,950 MY Imports 19 19 20 20 20 20 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,131 3,051 3,822 3,742 3,470 3,197 MY Exports 70 70 65 65 65 65 MY Exp. to EU 20 20 20 20 20 20 Crush 2,769 2,769 3,050 3,400 3,050 3,050 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 50 50 57 50 53 50 Total Dom. Cons. 2,819 2,819 3,107 3,450 3,103 3,100 Ending Stocks 242 162 650 227 302 32 Total Distribution 3,131 3,051 3,822 3,742 3,470 3,197 1000 HA, 1000 MT Meal, Sunflowerseed Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Mar 2010 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: May 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 2,769 2,769 3,050 3,400 3,050 3,050 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 215 215 227 227 244 237 Production 1,218 1,218 1,322 1,480 1,287 1,287 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,433 1,433 1,549 1,707 1,531 1,524 MY Exports 586 586 685 850 665 665 MY Exp. to EU 450 450 500 500 500 500 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 620 620 620 620 620 620 Total Dom. Cons. 620 620 620 620 620 620 Ending Stocks 227 227 244 237 246 239 Total Distribution 1,433 1,433 1,549 1,707 1,531 1,524 1000 MT, PERCENT Oil, Sunflowerseed Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Mar 2010 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: Mar 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 2,769 2,769 3,050 3,400 3,050 3,050 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 281 281 447 438 347 331 Production 1,146 1,146 1,257 1,400 1,258 1,258 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,427 1,427 1,704 1,838 1,605 1,589 MY Exports 578 587 950 1,100 950 950 MY Exp. to EU 180 180 270 270 270 270 Industrial Dom. Cons. 2 2 2 2 2 2 Food Use Dom. Cons. 385 385 390 390 395 395 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 15 15 15 15 15 15 Total Dom. Cons. 402 402 407 407 412 412 Ending Stocks 447 438 347 331 243 227 Total Distribution 1,427 1,427 1,704 1,838 1,605 1,589 1000 MT, PERCENT Oilseed, Peanut Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Mar 2010 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: Mar 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 220 220 280 265 265 300 Area Harvested 220 220 280 265 265 300 Beginning Stocks 66 66 61 86 177 38 Production 836 836 1,000 736 900 1,100 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 902 902 1,061 822 1,077 1,138 MY Exports 652 652 660 660 695 800 MY Exp. to EU 380 380 400 400 400 400 Crush 165 140 200 100 200 250 Food Use Dom. Cons. 9 9 9 9 9 9 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 15 15 15 15 15 15 Total Dom. Cons. 189 164 224 124 224 274 Ending Stocks 61 86 177 38 158 64 Total Distribution 902 902 1,061 822 1,077 1,138 1000 HA, 1000 MT Meal, Peanut Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Mar 2010 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: May 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 165 140 200 100 200 250 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 39 39 7 1 6 0 Production 75 63 88 44 88 110 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 114 102 95 45 94 110 MY Exports 32 32 9 9 9 9 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 75 70 80 37 80 95 Total Dom. Cons. 75 70 80 37 80 95 Ending Stocks 7 1 6 0 5 6 Total Distribution 114 103 95 46 94 110 1000 MT, PERCENT Oil, Peanut Argentina 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Mar 2010 Market Year Begin: Mar 2011 Market Year Begin: Mar 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 165 140 200 100 200 250 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 17 17 4 0 7 1 Production 50 46 63 32 63 80 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 67 63 67 32 70 81 MY Exports 62 62 59 30 60 75 MY Exp. to EU 37 18 37 20 37 40 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 1 1 1 1 1 1 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ending Stocks 4 0 7 1 9 5 Total Distribution 67 63 67 32 70 81 1000 MT, PERCENT
Posted: 18 October 2011

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