Canola Voluntary Report December 2012

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Australia

Posted on: 22 Dec 2012

Australia’s canola production in the local marketing year (MY) 2012/13 (December/November) is forecast at 2.7 million metric tons (MMT).

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 12/11/2012 GAIN Report Number: AS1225 Australia Post: Canberra Canola Voluntary Report December 2012 Report Categories: Oilseeds and Products Grain and Feed Approved By: Joe Carroll, Agricultural Counselor Prepared By: Rebecca Gowen, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Australia’s canola production in the local marketing year (MY) 2012/13 (December/November) is forecast at 2.7 million metric tons (MMT), down about 16 percent from last year’s record production level of an estimated 3.2 MMT, but still higher than the previous record of 2.2 MMT harvested in 2010/11. Exports of canola in 2012/13 are forecast at 2.0 MMT, down slightly from the record 2.1 MMT exported in 2011/12. Although first approved for planting in 2008, Australian growers have been slow to switch to genetically modified canola, which today accounts for only about 10% of the crop. Production Back-to-back record wheat crops, coupled with lower prices received by farmers’ at the time of last year’s rain affected wheat harvest, encouraged growers to shift area into canola. Total area planted to canola reached a record 2.37 million hectares in 2012/13, 23 percent higher than the previous year. However, in response to less favorable seasonal conditions, average yield in 2012/13 is estimated at only 1.2 MT/ha, significantly lower than last year’s record yield of 1.75 MT/ha (and well below the 5-year average of 1.5 MT/ha). Total production of canola seed in 2012/13 is projected to be the second largest on record and is forecast at 2.7 MMT. This is down (500 TMT) from last year’s record production of 3.2 MMT. Australian canola production 2012/13 Source: Australian Oilseeds Federation Australian canola production 2012/13 by state (thousand metric tons) Source: Australian Oilseeds Federation Exports Australian exports of canola seed in 2012/13 are forecast at 2.0 MMT, down slightly from last year’s record exports of an estimated 2.1 MMT. Despite being a relatively small producer of canola (accounting for about 4.5% of global production), Australia is the world’s second largest exporter of canola, accounting for 17% of world trade in 2011/12. Major export destinations for Australian canola include the European Union and Pakistan. In 2011 over 1.5 million tons of Australian canola was exported to the EU (88% of total exports). Year to date exports for 2012 are again focused on the EU (60%) followed by Pakistan with 350,000 tons (16%). The changes in export destination are driven by price, and the increase in exports to countries within the European Union is driven by lower domestic production in those years. Production, Supply and Demand Statistics Oilseed, Rapeseed A 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 ustralia Market Year Begin: Dec Market Year Begin: Dec Market Year Begin: Dec 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 2,080 2,080 1,730 1,730 2,210 2,370 Area Harvested 2,078 2,078 1,730 1,730 2,206 2,370 Beginning Stocks 428 428 443 350 354 645 Production 2,359 2,200 2,815 3,200 2,761 2,700 MY Imports 1 1 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 2,788 2,629 3,258 3,550 3,115 3,345 MY Exports 1,615 1,549 2,125 2,125 2,070 2,000 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 700 700 750 750 680 750 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 30 30 29 30 30 30 Total Dom. Cons. 730 730 779 780 710 780 Ending Stocks 443 350 354 645 335 565 Total Distribution 2,788 2,629 3,258 3,550 3,115 3,345 1000 HA, 1000 MT Crushing capacity Currently, approximately 750,000 tons of Australian canola seed is crushed domestically. Over the last five years crushing capacity for all oilseeds has increased and is now approximately 1.0 MMT per annum. A new plant in Wagga Wagga and a second in Port Kembla are expected to double Australia’s oilseed crushing capacity in the near future. The plant at Wagga Wagga has just come on-line and is expected to crush 150,000 tons of canola this year with additional capacity for soybean, sunflower and safflower. GM Canola Only 10% of the Australian canola crop is grown from genetically-modified (GM) seed. GM varieties were first grown in 2008 and plantings increased in 2010 when Western Australia withdrew their moratorium on GM seed. However uptake of these varieties has been relatively slow due to the price premium received for non-GM product (particularly from the European Union) and the small number of handling facilities that are registered to receive/store/export GM cotton. Uptake of GM canola has been greatest in the fertile regions of Victoria.
Posted: 22 December 2012

See more from Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Australia

Expert Views    
Grain and Feed Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Grain and Feed Update   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Agricultural Biotechnology Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Canola Voluntary Report December 2012   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Grain and Feed Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service