Stone Fruit Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Pome Fruits (such as apples or pears) and Stone Fruits (such as peaches, cherries, etc.) in Australia

Posted on: 21 Aug 2012

Total cherry production for MY2013 is forecast at 12,000 MT, up 9 percent on the revised estimate of 11,000 MT for MY2012.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 8/8/2012 GAIN Report Number: AS1214 Australia Stone Fruit Annual 2012 Approved By: Joe Carroll, Agricultural Counselor Prepared By: Joe Carroll, Agricultural Counselor Report Highlights: Total cherry production for MY2013 is forecast at 12,000 MT, up 9 percent on the revised estimate of 11,000 MT for MY2012. Total cherry imports for MY2013 are forecast at 3,650, up slightly on the revised estimate of 3,600 MT estimated for MY2012. Total peach and nectarine production for MY2013 is forecast at 132,000 MT, up slightly from the revised MY 2012 production estimate of 128,000 MT. Total exports of peaches and nectarines in MY2013 are forecast at 9,000 MT, up 28 percent from the revised MY2012 export estimate of 7,000 MT. Commodities: Fresh Cherries,(Sweet&Sour) Fresh Peaches & Nectarines Cherries Production Total cherry production for MY2013 is forecast at 12,000 MT, up 9 percent on the revised estimate of 11,000 MT for MY2012. Favorable weather conditions in the lead-up to, and during, the MY2013 crop harvest are expected to support higher production. The production estimate for MY2012 was revised downward (500 MT) due to untimely rains in New South Wales which led to some crop damages and cracking of the fruit. Australian cherries are produced in six states, with New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania being the three largest producers. Tasmania has had a rapid expansion in plantings and has a strong export focus, enhanced by its relative pest and disease free status. Both Western Australia and Queensland are relatively small producers primarily focusing on the domestic market. Australian cherries are available from mid-to-late October to late February. Over the longer term, the trade expects Australian cherry production to reach as high as 15,000 tons by 2015. Exports Cherry exports in MY2013 are forecast at 2,000 MT, roughly equivalent to last year’s level of exports. Despite the projected increase in the availability of cherries, exports are expected to remain relatively flat, as in the nearer term room still exists to expand and meet demand in the domestic market. Additionally, the strength of the Australian dollar is expected to continue to limit the realization of export potential. Imports Total cherry imports for MY2013 are forecast at 3,650, up slightly on the revised estimate of 3,600 MT estimated for MY2012. Last year’s late entry of U.S. cherries into the Western Australian market led to a higher than anticipated jump in imports of U.S. cherries. U.S. exports of cherries to Australia were/are further supported by the strong Australian dollar. 3600 Cherrie Trade (MT) 2600 1600 600 -400 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Imports Exports Source: WTA Data Policy In July 2011, the first consignment of cherries from the U.S. Pacific North West (Washington & Oregon) was shipped to Western Australia. It was initially expected that this development will result in additional sales of $200,000-$300,000 of U.S. cherries (as the season was already underway). Actual exports to WA far exceeded earlier expectations, and according to the trade were valued at over $1 million. For the longer term, the trade expects the WA market to be worth at least $2-3 million annually. Western Australian consumers have fewer fruit choices in winter (during the U.S. supply season), because the very stringent WA state quarantine barriers even exclude fruit from the eastern states of Australia so they are restricted to locally (WA) grown produce. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Fresh Cherries,(Sweet&Sour) 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Australia Market Year Begin: Nov Market Year Begin: Nov Market Year Begin: Nov 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 1,300 1,300 1,325 1,325 1,350 Area Harvested 1,100 1,100 1,150 1,150 1,225 Bearing Trees 2,200 2,200 2,250 2,250 2,300 Non-Bearing Trees 300 300 275 275 300 Total Trees 2,500 2,500 2,525 2,525 2,600 Commercial Production 7,500 7,500 11,500 11,000 12,000 Non-Comm. Production 0 0 0 0 0 Production 7,500 7,500 11,500 11,000 12,000 Imports 2,500 3,559 2,550 3,600 3,650 Total Supply 10,000 11,059 14,050 14,600 15,650 Fresh Dom. Consumption 9,110 10,309 12,050 12,600 13,650 Exports 890 750 2,000 2,000 2,000 For Processing 0 0 0 0 0 Withdrawal From Market 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 10,000 11,059 14,050 14,600 15,650 HA, 1000 TREES, MT Fresh Peaches and Nectarines Peaches and Nectarine Exports (MT) Production 11,000 Total peach1 and 0necta,rin0e pro0ductio0n for MY2013 is forecast at 132,000 MT, up slightly from the revised MY2012 production estimate of 128,000 MT. Back-to-back seasons of favorable weather have supported s9tone, fru0it pro0ducti0on. Exports 8,000 Total exports of 7peach,es0 and n0ectar0ines in MY2013 are forecast at 9,000 MT, up 28 percent from the revised MY2012 export estimate of 7,000 MT. Hong Kong remains the single largest export ma 6,000rket for Australian stone fruit (accounting for about 60 percent of total exports) followed by the United Arab Emirates and Singapore. Exports to Taiwan have begun to expand following resumption of m5a ,000rket access for Australian stone fruit in 2009. Following eight years of discussions with the Government of China, market access for Australian stone fruit is still pending. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total Exports Singapore Hong Kong United Arab Emirates Source: WTA Data Policy Australia has completed its review of import requirements for U.S. stone fruit (peaches, nectarines, plums and apricots) from California and the Pacific North West (PNW) States of Idaho, Oregon and Washington. Australian authorities are working on the import protocols which should be finalized before the end of 2012. It is expected that stone fruit from the United States would be very competitive in the Australian market, where it would enter the country when domestically produced fruit is out of season. Other U.S. fresh fruit items -- notably cherries, citrus, and table grapes -- have been particularly successful in the Australian market when permitted entry, with total sales valued at $100 million in 2011. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Fresh Peaches & Nectarines 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Australia Market Year Begin: Nov Market Year Begin: Nov Market Year Begin: Nov 2010 2011 2012 USDA O N USDA ew Post N USDA ew Post New Post fficial Official Official Area Planted 1,955 1,955 1,955 1,955 1,950 Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 Bearing Trees 2,450 2,450 2,450 2,450 2,500 Non-Bearing Trees 350 350 350 350 300 Total Trees 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 Commercial Production 90,000 120,000 95,000 128,000 132,000 Non-Comm. Production 0 0 0 0 0 Production 90,000 120,000 95,000 128,000 132,000 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 90,000 120,000 95,000 128,000 132,000 Fresh Dom. Consumption 40,000 80,968 45,000 84,000 86,000 Exports 3,602 4,032 5,000 7,000 9,000 For Processing 46,398 35,000 45,000 37,000 37,000 Withdrawal From Market 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 90,000 120,000 95,000 128,000 132,000 HA, 1000 TREES, MT Recent Reports from FAS/Canberra The reports listed below can all be downloaded from the FAS website at: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Lists/Advanced%20Search/AllItems.aspx Title of Report Date Biofuels Annual 2012 06/27/12 Retail Sector Report 06/11/12 Dairy and Products Semi Annual 2012 05/07/12 Sugar Annual 2012 04/10/12 Cotton and Products Annual 2012 03/29/12 Grain and Feed Annual 2012 03/20/12 Wine Annual 2012 03/15/12 Livestock and Product Semi-annual 2012 03/13/12 Grain & Feed Lock-Up – February 2012 01/24/12
Posted: 21 August 2012

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