Sugar Semi-annual 2012

An Expert's View about Tropical and Subtropical Fruits, Sugar Cane in Australia

Posted on: 8 Oct 2012

Post’s estimate for Australian 2012/13 sugar production has been revised downwards (4%) to 4.3 MMT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 9/24/2012 GAIN Report Number: AS1218 Australia Sugar Semi-annual 2012 Approved By: Joe Carroll, Agricultural Counselor Prepared By: Joe Carroll, Agricultural Counselor Report Highlights: Post’s estimate for Australian 2012/13 sugar production has been revised downwards (4%) to 4.3 MMT. While rains earlier in the season supported cane growth, they also negatively affected sugar content and delayed harvest and crushing. Despite the decline in the estimated production level, Post’s estimate for sugar exports was increased (3%) to 3.1 MMT Commodities: Sugar Cane for Centrifugal Sugar, Centrifugal Total Cane Area (cut for crushing) Forecast cane area for 2012/13 remains unchanged at 380,000 hectares. While world sugar prices in 2012/13 are down relative to last year, they remain above the historical 10-year average. Consequently, area planted to cane is expected to remain strong in the near-term. Source: ABARES Data The 2011/12 area estimate remains unchanged at 366,000 hectares. The 2011/12 harvest was cut short by heavy rainfall during the second half of the harvest. Industry sources report that area left un-harvested at the conclusion of the 2011/12 season has been harvested in 2012/13. Sugar Cane Production Post’s estimate of sugar cane production for 2012/13 was increased (1.6%) to 31.5 MMT, as early season rains encouraged cane growth. Additionally, un-harvested cane from 2011/12 has been harvested in the current 2012/13 crop. Estimated cane production for 2011/12 is unchanged at 28.0 MMT, in line with recently published industry data. Difficult harvesting conditions left significant quantities of the 2011/12 cane crop un-harvested and this reduced the overall level of production. Source: ABARES Data Sugar Production Post’s estimated 2012/13 sugar production has been revised downwards (4%) to 4.3 MMT (IPS), representing around 4.15 MMT of sugar in typical raw form (using a conversion factor of 1.037). While excellent growing and harvesting conditions have supported higher cane production, sugar content is reported to be down. Post’s estimate of 2011/12 sugar production remains unchanged at 3.9 MMT. Poor harvesting conditions together with a lower CCS, due to high rainfall and less sunshine, combined to limit last year’s cane crush and overall sugar production. Exports The forecast for total sugar exports for 2012/13 was increased (3%) to 3.1 MMT. Despite this increase, exports at this level would be considered low, as the ten-year average stands at 3.52 MMT. Post’s estimate of 2011/12 sugar exports remains unchanged at 2.85 MMT. Prices The average mill-gate return for sugar cane to Australian growers is forecast to decline by about $7/MT in 2012/13, to slightly below the 10-year average ($36/MT). Queensland Sugar Limited ended the 2011/12 season with a pool return of $518/MT, up from $444/MT in 2010/11, and up on the 10-year average of $496/MT. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Sugar Cane for Centrifugal 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Australia Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 330 330 366 366 380 380 Production 26,000 26,000 28,000 2,800 31,000 31,500 Total Supply 26,000 26,000 28,000 2,800 31,000 31,500 Utilization for Sugar 26,000 26,000 28,000 2,800 31,000 31,500 Utilizatn for Alcohol 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Utilization 26,000 26,000 28,000 2,800 31,000 31,500 1000 HA, 1000 MT Sugar, Centrifugal Australia 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 413 413 193 193 73 73 Beet Sugar Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cane Sugar Production 3,700 3,700 3,900 3,900 4,500 4,300 Total Sugar Production 3,700 3,700 3,900 3,900 4,500 4,300 Raw Imports 16 16 40 40 25 25 Refined Imp.(Raw Val) 147 147 140 140 140 140 Total Imports 163 163 180 180 165 165 Total Supply 4,276 4,276 4,273 4,273 4,738 4,538 Raw Exports 2,550 2,550 2,650 2,650 2,800 2,900 Refined Exp.(Raw Val) 200 200 200 200 200 200 Total Exports 2,750 2,750 2,850 2,850 3,000 3,100 Human Dom. Consumption 1,333 1,333 1,350 1,350 1,375 1,375 Other Disappearance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,333 1,333 1,350 1,350 1,375 1,375 Ending Stocks 193 193 73 73 363 63 Total Distribution 4,276 4,276 4,273 4,273 4,738 4,538 1000 MT
Posted: 08 October 2012

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