Sugar Semi-annual

An Expert's View about Food , Beverages and Tobacco in Australia

Posted on: 18 Oct 2011

Excellent weather/harvesting conditions have contributed to higher cane sugar content, consequently Post’s estimate of Australia’s 2011/12 sugar production has been increased to 4.15 million tons, and exports to 2.75 million tons.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 9/28/2011 GAIN Report Number: AS1125 Australia Sugar Semi-annual 2011 Approved By: Joseph Carroll, Agricultural Counselor Prepared By: Mike Darby, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Excellent weather/harvesting conditions have contributed to higher cane sugar content, consequently Post?s estimate of Australia?s 2011/12 sugar production has been increased to 4.15 million tons, and exports to 2.75 million tons. Commodities: Sugar Cane for Centrifugal Sugar, Centrifugal Total Cane Area (cut for crushing) The 2011/12 cane harvest is well ahead of schedule, passing the half way mark by late September. An early start to the harvest, combined with almost perfect harvesting conditions, is likely to see harvest completed much earlier than normal. Forecast cane area for 2011/12 remains unchanged at 380,000 hectares. Despite a sharp year- over-year increase, this forecast remains well below the ten-year average. The ongoing affects of wet weather in CY 2010 and damage suffered during cyclone ?Yasi?, have constrained greater increases in planted area. Source: ABARES Data The 2010/11 area estimate also remains unchanged at 353,000 hectares, the lowest level since 1993/94. The 2010/11 harvest was effectively cut short by very heavy rainfall during the second half of the harvest. Industry sources estimate that around 60,000 hectares remained un-harvested at the conclusion of the 2010/11 season and this ?stood over? cane has been harvested in 2011/12. Sugar Cane Production Forecast sugar cane production for 2011/12 remains unchanged at 30,000 TMT (30 MMT). A return to normal weather conditions has created a substantial improvement in harvesting conditions for the 2011/12 crop. Estimated area for 2010/11 has been revised upwards slightly to 27,450 TMT (27.45 MMT), in line with recently published industry data. Difficult harvesting conditions left significant quantities of the 2010/11 cane crop un-harvested and this limited the overall total area. This would represent the smallest cane crush since 1991/92, according to ABARES historical data. Source: ABARES Data Sugar Production Estimated sugar production for 2011/12 has been revised upwards to 4.15 MMT (IPS), representing around 4.0 MMT of sugar in typical raw form (using a conversion factor of 1.037). Despite this increase, this forecast is considered well below the ten-year, average level of production, of 4.72 MMT. Excellent harvesting conditions have seen some above-average commercial cane sugar (CCS) yields which is likely to boost overall sugar production. Post advises that some of the best sugar yields have been achieved just prior to writing this report. Should this situation persist for the remainder of the cane harvest, overall sugar production for 2011/12 would likely be revised further upwards in subsequent reports. Industry sources place the upside potential of the 2011/12 crop at 4.4 MMT (IPS). Source: ABARES Data Sugar production estimates for 2010/11 remain unchanged at 3.7 MMT, the lowest level of production since 1991/92. Poor harvesting conditions together with a lower CCS yields, due to high rainfall and less sunshine, combined to dramatically reduce cane crush and overall sugar production. Exports The forecast for total 2011/12 exports has been revised upwards to 2.95 MMT. Despite this increase, exports at this level would be considered low, as the ten-year average stands at 3.52 MMT. Source: ABARES Data Estimated exports for 2010/11 remain unchanged at 2.75 MMT, the lowest level since 1991. Prices According to recent ABARE reports, farm gate prices for sugar cane are expected to decline by AU$1.35 in 2011/12 to AU$42.35 per MT. Prices received for raw sugar in Australia are expected to range from AU$505 to AU$565 per MT in 2011/12. Recent Reports from FAS/Canberra The reports listed below can all be downloaded from the FAS website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/AttacheRep/default.asp. Title of Report Date Livestock and Products Annual 2011 08/31/11 FAIRS Country Report 08/17/11 Stone Fruit Annual 2011 08/11/11 US Cherries Break Through Quarantine Barrier into Western Australia 07/19/11 Agricultural Biotechnology Report 06/29/11 Exporter Guide 06/22/11 Sugar Update 2011 06/20/11 Ag DownUnder June 2011 06/07/11 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Sugar Cane for Centrifugal 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Australia Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 2010 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 365 386 390 353 380 Production 30,000 31,027 32,000 27,450 30,000 Total Supply 30,000 31,027 32,000 27,450 30,000 Utilization for Sugar 30,000 31,027 32,000 27,450 30,000 Utilizatn for Alcohol 0 0 0 0 0 Total Utilization 30,000 31,027 32,000 27,450 30,000 1000 HA, 1000 MT Sugar, Centrifugal 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Australia Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: May 2009 2010 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 487 487 413 413 293 193 Beet Sugar Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cane Sugar Production 4,700 4,700 3,800 3,700 4,000 4,150 Total Sugar Production 4,700 4,700 3,800 3,700 4,000 4,150 Raw Imports 10 11 16 16 18 18 Refined Imp.(Raw Val) 66 67 64 147 62 147 Total Imports 76 76 80 80 80 80 Total Supply 5,263 5,263 4,293 4,193 4,373 4,423 Raw Exports 3,400 3,400 2,550 2,550 2,650 2,750 Refined Exp.(Raw Val) 200 200 200 200 200 200 Total Exports 3,600 3,600 2,750 2,750 2,850 2,950 Human Dom. Consumption 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 Other Disappearance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 Ending Stocks 413 413 293 193 273 308 Total Distribution 5,263 5,263 4,293 4,193 4,373 4,508 1000 MT
Posted: 18 October 2011

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