Grain and Feed Update

An Expert's View about Crops and Support Services in Bangladesh

Posted on: 28 Jun 2012

Bangladesh wheat production in MY 2011/12 is expected to reach 1.15 million tons, bringing import demand to 1.7 million tons.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 4/30/2012 GAIN Report Number: BG2003 Bangladesh Grain and Feed Update Quarterly Update - June 2012 Approved By: David Leishman Prepared By: Sayed Sarwer Hussain Report Highlights: Bangladesh wheat production in MY 2011/12 is expected to reach 1.15 million tons, bringing import demand to 1.7 million tons. Bangladesh rice production is estimated at 33.5 million tons, with imports reaching 635,000 tons in MY 2011/12. Post: Dhaka Author Defined: Production of Rice and Wheat Based on the latest official data, Bangladesh rice production in MY 2011/12 (May-April) is estimated at 33.5 million tons comprising of 18.4 million tons of Boro (planted in December/January and harvested in May/Jun), 2.33 million tons of Aus ((planted in March/April and harvested in June/July) and 12.8 million tons of Aman (planted in July/August and harvested in November/December). The MY 2011/12 wheat production is estimated marginally higher at 1.15 million tons. Prices With successive good harvests and a stable rice supply situation, rice prices in Bangladesh have been generally declining since October 2011. In April, 2012 the average wholesale price for coarse rice was 24,700 Taka (US $301) per ton, while the retail price was 28,500 Taka (US $347), approximately 20 and 11.8 percent lower respectively than the prices one year ago. Wholesale and retail prices of wheat flour are 26,800 Taka ($326) and 31,000 Taka ($378), respectively 1.3 percent and 3.2 percent higher than a year ago. Imports According to official estimates, MY 2011/12 (May-April) rice import is estimated at 635,000 tons of which about 89 percent were through government purchases. MY 2011/12 wheat imports through to the second week of May, 2012 reached 1.58 million tons, of which about 68 percent was through private commercial imports. Considering current domestic price levels, wheat imports are expected to reach 1.7 million tons in MY 2011/12. The current availability of wheat and rice in the market has triggered a stop on government imports even though purchases are 247,000 below the targeted number. Table 1: Commodity, Rice,Milled, PSD 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Rice, Milled Market Year Market Year Market Year Bangladesh Begin: May 2010 Begin: May 2011 Begin: May 2012 USDA USDA O New New USDA New fficia P Officiaost P Officiaost Post l l l Area Harvested 11,700 11,70 11,800 11,80 11,800 11,80 (1000 0 0 0 HA) Beginning Stocks 770 770 1,378 1,378 1,628 1,313 (1000 MT) Milled Production 31,700 31,70 34,100 33,50 34,100 34,10 (1000 0 0 0 MT) Rough Production 47,555 47,55 51,155 50,25 51,155 51,15 (1000 MT) 5 5 5 Milling Rate (.9999) 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,666 (1000 MT) MY Imports 1,308 1,308 650 635 600 600 (1000 MT) TY Imports 1,483 1,483 650 400 600 600 (1000 MT) TY Imp. from U.S. 2 2 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Supply 33,778 33,77 36,128 35,51 36,328 36,01 (1000 8 3 3 MT) MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Consumption and Residual 32,400 32,40 34,500 34,20 35,000 34,68 (1000 MT) 0 0 5 Ending Stocks 1,378 1,378 1,628 1,313 1,328 1,328 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 33,778 33,77 36,128 35,51 36,328 36,01 (1000 8 3 3 MT) Yield (Rough) 4. 4.064 4. 4.258 4. 4.335 (MT/HA) 5 9 2 TS=TD 0 0 0 Table 2: Commodity, Wheat, PSD 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Wheat Market Year Market Year Market Year Bangladesh Begin: Jul 2010 Begin: Jul 2011 Begin: Jul 2012 USDA USDA Of New USDA w ficia P O New fficia ost P O Ne fficia ost Post l l l Area Harvested 374 374 400 400 420 420 (1000 HA) Beginning Stocks 1,261 1,261 2,084 1,92 1,384 779 (1000 9 MT) Production 972 972 1,100 1,15 1,200 1,200 (1000 0 MT) MY Imports 3,951 3,796 2,400 1,70 3,000 3,000 (1000 0 MT) TY Imports 3,951 3,796 2,400 1,70 3,000 3,000 (1000 0 MT) TY Imp. from U.S. 134 134 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Supply 6,184 6,029 5,584 4,77 5,584 4,979 (1000 9 MT) MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Feed and Residual 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) FSI Consumption 4,100 4,100 4,200 4,00 4,400 4,100 (1000 0 MT) Total Consumption 4,100 4,100 4,200 4,00 4,400 4,100 (1000 0 MT) Ending Stocks 2,084 1,929 1,384 779 1,184 879 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 6,184 6,029 5,584 4,77 5,584 4,979 (1000 9 MT) Yield 3. 2.598 3. 2.87 3. 2.857 (MT/HA) 9 5 1 TS=TD 0 0 0
Posted: 28 June 2012