2011-12 Soybean Production Forecast at a Record 75.5 MMT

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Brazil

Posted on: 16 Dec 2011

Post now forecasts record soybean production in 2011/12 at 75.5 million metric tons (mmt), a slight increase over the 75.3 mmt produced in 2010/11. Brazil has experienced a record planting pace in 2011/12 with over 80 percent completed nationally.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 11/28/2011 GAIN Report Number: BR0720 Brazil Oilseeds and Products Update 2011-12 Soybean Production Forecast at a Record 75.5 MMT Approved By: Bob Hoff, Agricultural Counselor Prepared By: Jeff Zimmerman, Agricultural Attaché Report Highlights: Post now forecasts record soybean production in 2011/12 at 75.5 million metric tons (mmt), a slight increase over the 75.3 mmt produced in 2010/11. Brazil has experienced a record planting pace in 2011/12 with over 80 percent completed nationally. The concentrated planting of the estimated record crop will greatly strain harvest and export logistics in 2012. Exports in 2011/12 are forecast to reach a record 36 mmt, up 8 percent from an estimated 33 mmt of exports in 2010/11. Post: Brasilia Table 1. Production, Supply, and Demand Statistics Oilseed, Soybean 9/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 (Local) B 200razil Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Feb 2010 Feb 2011 Feb 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 23,500 23,400 24,200 24,200 25,000 25,000 Area Harvested 23,500 23,400 24,200 24,200 25,000 25,000 Beginning Stocks 1,656 295 2,766 1,779 6,441 4,254 Production 69,000 68,700 75,500 75,300 75,000 75,500 MY Imports 150 124 25 25 50 25 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 70,806 69,119 78,291 77,104 81,491 79,779 MY Exports 29,190 29,190 32,000 33,250 36,600 36,000 MY Exp. to EU 9,500 6,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Crush 35,700 35,200 36,500 36,500 36,525 36,700 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. 3,150 2,950 3,350 3,100 3,450 3,200 Cons. Total Dom. Cons. 38,850 38,150 39,850 39,600 39,975 39,900 Ending Stocks 2,766 1,779 6,441 4,254 4,916 3,879 Total Distribution 70,806 69,119 78,291 77,104 81,491 79,779 1000 HA, 1000 MT A Record Soybean Production Forecast at 75.5 mmt in 2011/12 Post raised 2011/12 estimated soybean production to a record 75.5 mmt, a slight increase from the previous record of 75.3 mmt produced last year. Post?s 2011/12 production forecast is similar to those of private consulting groups Céleres and Safras e Mercado that estimate 75.5 mmt and 75.35 mmt, respectively. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture Food Supply Company?s (CONAB) second 2011/12 crop survey released on November 9th forecast potential soybean production at 73 mmt. Favorable precipitation patterns have continued to be experienced in growing regions throughout the month of November. Brazil?s 2011/12 Soybean Exports Forecast at a Record 36 mmt Post forecasts Brazil?s 2011/12 soybean exports at a record 36 mmt up over 8 percent from the 33.25 mmt expected to be exported in 2010/11. The concentrated harvest expected in 2012 will strain Brazil?s export logistics with no significant increased port export capacity construction projects due. Export potential is greatly predicated on increased demand from China and trade sources currently estimated China to import between 57 and 60 mmt in 2011/12. End of marketing year 2010/11 soybean exports have been very robust with 1.7 mmt estimated for the month of November alone, well above the 300,000 mt exported last year. Trade sources indicate a record level of committed sales reaching 35 percent nationally of which 30 percent have the price already negotiated. This is well above the five year average of 22 percent in committed sales as reported by Safras and Mercado Consultancy group. Overall, action at Brazil?s soybean trading desks has been slow over the last couple of months as buyers continue to consider the market fundamentals and their potential price effects. Congressional Coalition Supporting the Biodiesel Sector Created On November 19th, a Brazilian Congressional Coalition consisting of 280 members was launched to support the biodiesel sector. Besides the first objective to create a new regulatory seal, the coalition seeks to increase the competitiveness of biodiesel through advocating for increased domestic use, policies favoring eventual export of biodiesel, and the lowering of taxes on biodiesel. In addition, the coalition has stated its goal of increasing the blend mandate over the near term from 5 percent to reach 10 percent by 2014 and eventually to reach 20 percent over the next ten years. The biodiesel industry is anticipating a revision to the Brazilian blending mandate from 5 percent biodiesel blend to increase to 7 percent sometime in 2012. Other relevant reports: 2011 - Brazil Oilseeds Planting Update - October 2011 Brazil Oilseeds Annual Report 2011 Brazil Bio-Fuels Annual Report
Posted: 16 December 2011

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