Coffee Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Tree and Bush Fruits and Nuts in Brazil

Posted on: 20 May 2012

The ATO/Sao Paulo projects coffee production in Brazil for marketing year (MY) 2012/13 (July-June) at 55.9 million 60-kg bags, up 6.7 million bags.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 5/4/2012 GAIN Report Number: BR12006 Brazil Coffee Annual 2012 Approved By: Frederick Giles, Director Agricultural Trade Office, Sao Paulo Prepared By: Sergio Barros, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: This report updates BR110025. The ATO/Sao Paulo projects coffee production in Brazil for marketing year (MY) 2012/13 (July-June) at 55.9 million 60-kg bags, up 6.7 million bags compared to the previous MY as a consequence of the on-year of the biennial production cycle of the Arabica trees and good production potential for Robusta trees, especially in Espirito Santo. Coffee exports are forecast at 34 million bags, a 12 percent increase compared to MY 2011/12, due to likely higher availability of the product. Carry-over stocks are forecast at 2.93 million bags. Production: The Agricultural Trade Office Sao Paulo (ATO) forecasts the Brazilian coffee production for marketing year (MY) 2012/2013 (July-June) at 55.9 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), green equivalent, a 13 percent increase compared to MY 2011/12 (49.2 million bags). Post conducted field trips to major coffee producing areas to evaluate the 2012 crop. Trips were made during the February-April 2012 period to the states of Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Sao Paulo to observe vegetative development, cherry set and fruit formation. Information for other producing states was obtained from government sources, state secretariats of agriculture, producer associations, cooperatives and traders. Arabica trees are expected to produce 40.2 million bags, up 16 percent compared to the last crop due to the biennial production cycle of arabica trees, which are in the on-year of the production cycle for most regions. Robusta production is expected to increase to 15.7 million bags, up 1.2 million bags relative to MY 2011/12, due to the good production potential in Espirito Santo. Robusta producing regions began harvest in April/May, whereas Arabica coffee harvest should begin in May/June. The table below shows forecast production by state and variety for MY 2012/13, as well as production estimates from MY 2008/09 to MY 2011/12. Brazilian Coffee Production (Million 60-kg bags) State/Variety MY 08/09 MY 09/10 MY 10/11 MY 11/12 MY 12/13 Minas Gerais 26.90 22.10 28.50 23.50 28.30 Southwest 14.90 12.10 16.00 11.50 15.20 Central-western 5.10 4.20 5.50 4.50 5.90 Southeast 6.90 5.80 7.00 7.50 7.20 Espirito Santo 12.10 10.60 11.50 13.50 15.00 Arabica 2.90 2.40 3.10 2.70 2.80 Robusta 9.20 8.20 8.40 10.80 12.20 Sao Paulo 4.90 4.20 5.00 4.10 4.80 Parana 2.70 1.90 2.40 1.90 1.80 Others 6.70 6.00 7.10 6.20 6.00 Arabica 3.10 2.40 2.80 2.50 2.50 Robusta 3.60 3.60 4.30 3.70 3.50 Total 53.30 44.80 54.50 49.20 55.90 Arabica 40.50 33.00 41.80 34.70 40.20 Robusta 12.80 11.80 12.70 14.50 15.70 Source: ATO/Sao Paulo. In January 2012, the Brazilian government (GoB), through the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply’s (MAPA) National Supply Company (CONAB), released its first survey projecting Brazilian coffee production. For MY 2012/13, between 48.97 and 52.27 million 60-kg bags are forecast, a 5.48 to 8.78 million bag reduction compared to the final estimate for MY 2012/13 (43.48 million bags – 32.18 and 11.30 million bags of Arabica and Robusta coffee, respectively). CONAB projects arabica production between 36.41 and 39.02 million bags, whereas the robusta crop is estimated between 12.56 and 13.25 million bags. CONAB is expected to release the second coffee survey for the 2011 crop in mid-May. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has also released its March 2012 coffee production forecast for MY 2011/12. The IBGE forecast for the 2012 coffee crop is 3.004 million metric tons of coffee, or 50.1 million 60-kg coffee bags, a 13 percent increase compared to 2011 (2.658 million tons or 44.3 million bags). Coffee Area Tree Inventory The table below shows Brazilian coffee area and tree population from MY 2008/09 through MY 2012/13. Brazilian Coffee Area andTree Population (billion trees, million hectares, thousand trees/hectare) MY 08/09 MY 09/10 MY 10/11 MY 11/12 MY 12/13 Total Trees 6,567 6,598 6,635 6,595 6,815 Non-Bearing 677 873 815 835 950 Bearing 5,890 5,725 5,820 5,760 5,865 Total Area 2,424 2,395 2,409 2,410 2,398 Non-Bearing 201 244 234 260 268 Harvested 2,223 2,151 2,175 2,150 2,130 Trees/ha 2,710 2,755 2,754 2,737 2,842 Non-Bearing 3,368 3,578 3,483 3,212 3,545 Bearing 2,650 2,662 2,676 2,679 2,754 Source; ATO/Sao Paulo Yields Brazilian coffee yield for MY 2012/13 is projected at 26.34 bags/hectare, a 14.7 percent increase compared to last crop (22.88 bags/ha.), mainly due to the on-year of the biennial production cycle of arabica trees and good production potential for robusta trees, especially in Espirito Santo. The chart below shows historical agricultural yields. Coffee Prices in the Domestic Market The Coffee Index price series released by the University of Sao Paulo’s Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (ESALQ) follows. The series tracks coffee prices in the domestic spot market, from September 1996. Coffee prices increased in 2011 both in the local currency, the real, as well as in U.S. dollars (US$ 297.52/bag in 2011 compared to US$ 177.58/bag in 2010), due to lower supply. Arabica Coffee Prices in the Domestic Market (Real, 60kg/bag) Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 January 267.84 268.41 280.75 433.34 485.04 February 285.19 269.34 278.68 495.98 441.31 March 263.28 262.48 279.70 524.27 387.53 April 256.35 260.10 282.18 524.41 379.53 May 1/ 254.84 268.02 289.46 530.76 374.43 June 255.76 256.64 305.98 514.99 July 250.51 247.50 302.36 457.81 August 248.86 255.34 313.93 470.62 September 261.58 254.29 328.23 511.57 October 256.84 262.20 327.15 490.45 November 261.28 272.55 355.51 493.83 December 262.04 281.57 387.01 491.35 Source: CEPEA/ESALQ/USP. 1/ May 2012 price refers to May 3. Consumption: In MY 2012/13, Brazilian coffee domestic consumption is projected at 20.76 million coffee bags (19.58 million bags of roast/ground and 1.18 million bags of soluble coffee, respectively), up 3.5 percent relative to the previous season, reflecting results from the newest domestic consumption survey released by the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC). Brazilian consumption for MY 2011/12 has been revised to 20.06 million 60-kg bags, green equivalent, up 3.3 percent compared to MY 2009/10 (19.42 million bags). Roast and ground coffee consumption accounted for 18.92 million bags, whereas soluble consumption is estimated at 1.14 million bags. Estimates are based on periodic surveys conducted by ABIC and reflect population growth, increased per capita consumption, increased purchasing power, increased quality of the domestic brands, strong growth of superior and gourmet coffee and the effects of domestic campaigns to promote coffee consumption. ABIC reports that the coffee industry processed 19.72 million bags, green equivalent, from November 2010 to October 2011, a 3 percent increase compared to the same period in the previous year (19.13 million bags). Per capita consumption for 2011 is estimated at 4.88 kg of roasted coffee per person. The average retail coffee price in December 2011 was R$ 13.26 per kilogram, up 19 percent compared to December 2010 (R$ 11.12 per kilogram), due to the tight supply of the product, with a market value of R$ 7 billion in 2011. ABIC projects total domestic consumption for 2012 at 20.41 million bags, up 3.5 percent compared to 2011. Total market sales are projected at R$ 7.7 billion for 2012. The table below shows domestic ground and soluble coffee consumption as reported by ABIC. Domestic Ground and Soluble Coffee Consumption (Million 60 kg bags, Kg/year). Year Consumption (Million 60 kg bags) Consumption per capita (kg) Roast/Ground Soluble Total Roast Green Beans 2001 13.00 0.60 13.60 3.91 4.88 2002 13.30 0.74 14.04 3.86 4.83 2003 12.90 0.80 13.70 3.72 4.65 2004 14.10 0.80 14.90 4.01 5.01 2005 14.60 0.90 15.50 4.11 5.14 2006 15.40 0.93 16.33 4.27 5.34 2007 16.10 1.00 17.10 4.42 5.53 2008 16.68 0.98 17.66 4.51 5.64 2009 17.37 1.02 18.39 4.65 5.81 2010 18.06 1.07 19.13 4.81 6.02 2011 18.60 1.12 19.72 4.88 6.10 Source: Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC). 1/ Projection Note: Estimates refer to November-October period. Trade: Exports During MY 2012/13, total Brazilian coffee exports are forecast at 34 million bags, a 12 percent increase compared to the previous crop, due to expected higher product availability. Green bean exports are likely to account for 30.63 million bags, while soluble coffee exports are forecast at 3.3 million bags. Brazilian Arabica coffee remains competitive in international markets in spite of higher production costs. The devaluation of the real against the dollar as of September 2011 has also supported the competiveness of the product. Coffee exports for MY 2011/12 were revised upward to 30.3 million 60-kg bags, green beans, an increase of 1.3 million bags from the previous estimate, based on year-to-date export volumes and anticipated April-June loadings. Green bean (arabica and robusta) exports are estimated at 27.25 million bags, whereas soluble coffee exports are estimated at 3 million bags. Lower supplies from other producing countries have increased the demand for Brazilian product, especially washed coffee. Brazil represents approximately one-third of total world exports. According to the March 2012 Coffee Market Report International released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), total world coffee consumption for 2010 is estimated at 135.8 million bags, up 3.95 million bags relative to 2009. The table below shows green coffee bean (NCM 0901.11.10), soluble coffee (NCM 2101.11.10) and roasted coffee exports (NCM 0901.21.00) by country of destination, according to SECEX, for CY 2011, MY 2010/11 and 2011/12 (July-March). Brazilian Green Coffee Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 0901.11.10, MT, US$ 000 FOB) CY 2011 1/ MY 2010/11 2/ MY 2011/12 2/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value USA 397,587 1,795,660 307,147 1,053,497 286,163 1,338,368 Germany 361,672 1,663,648 317,791 1,089,512 257,114 1,226,547 Italy 157,728 761,523 140,430 504,303 117,641 580,300 Japan 135,965 669,584 99,380 354,883 102,400 527,241 Belgium 133,113 610,989 106,036 386,346 89,813 445,760 Spain 51,111 228,537 42,629 142,659 32,542 153,824 France 37,589 160,465 32,131 104,247 25,754 111,645 Sweden 34,645 157,816 28,725 93,886 25,930 124,099 Netherlands 32,120 127,490 21,757 74,162 16,505 74,917 Slovenia 29,835 96,667 37,819 93,893 24,847 86,328 Others 419,769 1,727,577 341,487 1,076,192 298,523 1,293,953 Total 1,791,132 7,999,955 1,475,332 4,973,580 1,277,232 5,962,981 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding 1/ Jan- Dec , 2/ July - March Brazilian Roasted Coffee Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 0901.21.00, MT, US$ 000 FOB) CY 2011 1/ MY 2010/11 2/ MY 2011/12 2/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value USA 1,556 13,659 1,206 7,568 1,078 10,435 Italy 910 4,805 751 3,266 644 3,426 Bolivia 178 835 132 573 127 603 Japan 233 1,475 164 891 126 834 Chile 139 1,150 127 818 104 909 Argentina 146 1,299 125 940 93 853 Paraguay 102 544 69 309 90 526 Uruguay 86 397 59 234 46 250 France 36 359 29 194 36 347 Georgia 17 85 8 35 22 115 Others 170 1,199 167 1,335 108 972 Total 3,573 25,807 2,838 16,163 2,473 19,270 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding 1/ Jan- Dec , 2/ July - March Brazilian Soluble Coffee Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 2101.11.10, MT, US$ 000 FOB) CY 2011 1/ MY 2010/11 2/ MY 2011/12 2/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value USA 14,001 98,420 10,288 54,648 10,711 82,523 Russia 8,209 74,789 6,836 55,142 5,990 56,978 Ukraine 5,681 51,282 3,737 29,335 4,339 40,873 Japan 4,716 39,527 2,958 21,016 3,741 34,107 Argetina 6,106 36,392 4,019 20,775 3,647 23,594 Germany 2,814 23,409 2,299 17,252 2,685 23,071 Indonesia 3,360 24,505 1,587 10,392 2,438 19,513 South Korea 2,347 27,316 1,212 12,104 1,706 22,099 Hungary 1,620 11,208 1,629 9,679 1,620 12,033 United K 4,461 1,548 10,774 1,584 13,898 ingdom 1,696 1 Others 29,526 273,170 22,051 176,288 20,989 202,406 Total 80,076 674,477 58,166 417,405 59,449 531,094 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding 1/ Jan- Dec , 2/ July - March The tables below include data on monthly coffee exports (quantity and value) for MY 2011/12 (July-March), as reported by Brazilian Green Coffee Association (CECAFE) and the Brazilian Soluble Coffee Association (ABICS). Total coffee exports during the July 2011 - March 2012 period were 23.69 million bags, down 3.2 million bags compared to the same period during MY 2009/10 (26.89 million bags). Preliminary data show that coffee export registrations for April 2012 were 2.02 million bags while cumulative green coffee export shipments for April 2012 are 1.83 million bags through May 3. Brazilian Monthly Coffee Exports for MY 2011/12 (Thousand 60-kg bag, green equivalent). Month Conillon Arabica Roasted Total Green Soluble Total Jul-11 265.74 1,531.88 4.75 1,802.37 260.22 2,062.60 Aug-11 322.28 2,318.38 5.04 2,645.70 275.12 2,920.82 Sep-11 224.81 2,398.76 4.89 2,628.45 307.83 2,936.29 Oct-11 236.16 2,692.80 6.09 2,935.05 240.90 3,175.94 Nov-11 147.58 2,603.86 4.03 2,755.47 286.07 3,041.54 Dec-11 76.01 2,535.74 6.11 2,617.86 392.73 3,010.59 Jan-12 37.10 1,897.09 3.23 1,937.42 199.32 2,136.74 Feb-12 53.06 1,924.48 4.11 1,981.65 233.50 2,215.15 Mar-12 79.14 1,864.73 4.19 1,948.06 241.46 2,189.51 Cumulative 1,441.87 19,767.71 42.45 21,252.03 2,437.14 23,689.17 Source: CECAFE and ABICS. Brazilian Monthly Coffee Exports for MY 2011/12 (US$ 1,000,000). Month Conillon Arabica Roasted Total Green Soluble Total Jul-11 38.43 444.79 1.95 485.16 53.79 538.96 Aug-11 45.43 687.81 2.29 735.53 56.96 792.48 Sep-11 32.05 730.59 1.98 764.62 63.56 828.18 Oct-11 32.50 811.17 2.52 846.19 51.46 897.65 Nov-11 19.66 765.83 1.42 786.91 60.29 847.20 Dec-11 9.67 731.11 2.63 743.42 82.82 826.24 Jan-12 4.66 536.48 1.11 542.24 40.65 582.89 Feb-12 7.62 521.50 1.50 530.62 47.46 578.08 Mar-12 12.27 484.52 1.93 498.72 51.16 549.88 Cumulative 202.28 5,713.81 17.32 5,933.40 508.16 6,441.56 Source: CECAFE and ABICS. Stocks: Total ending stocks in MY 2012/13 are forecast at 2.93 million bags, up 1.14 million bags relatively to MY 2011/12. Coffee stocks held by MAPA/DECAF (Funcafe stocks) are estimated at approximately 170,000 bags, whereas CONAB coffee stocks on March 31 are reported at 1.61 million bags. CONAB’s 2012 privately-owned stocks survey has not been released yet. The survey includes coffee stocks held by growers, coffee cooperatives, exporters, roasters and the soluble industry on March 31st. Policy: In April 2012, the National Monetary Council (CMN) approved a credit line from the Coffee Defense Fund (Funcafe) to finance the 2012/13 coffee crop as follows: R$ 500 million for crop management, R$ 900 million for storage, R$ 250 million for the Coffee Acquisition Financing (FAC) program, R$ 50 million for option contracts and future market operations; and R$ 225 million to finance cash flow for the soluble coffee industry and roasters. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Coffee, Green Bra 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 zil Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Jul 2011 Jul 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 2,409 2,409 2,410 2,410 2,398 Area Harvested 2,175 2,175 2,150 2,150 2,130 Bearing Trees 5,820 5,820 5,760 5,760 5,865 Non-Bearing 815 815 835 835 950 Trees Total Tree 6,635 6,635 6,595 6,595 6,815 Population Beginning Stocks 2,836 2,836 2,946 2,946 1,786 Arabica 41,800 41,800 34,700 34,700 40,200 Production Robusta 12,700 12,700 14,500 14,500 15,700 Production Other Production 0 0 0 0 0 Total Production 54,500 54,500 49,200 49,200 55,900 Bean Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Roast & Ground 0 0 0 0 0 Imports Soluble Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 57,336 57,336 52,146 52,146 57,686 Bean Exports 31,810 31,810 25,930 27,250 30,630 Rst-Grnd Exp. 60 60 70 50 70 Soluble Exports 3,140 3,140 3,000 3,000 3,300 Total Exports 35,010 35,010 29,000 30,300 34,000 Rst,Ground Dom. 18,300 18,300 18,680 18,920 19,580 Consum Soluble Dom. 1,080 1,080 1,080 1,140 1,180 Cons. Domestic Use 19,380 19,380 19,760 20,060 20,760 Ending Stocks 2,946 2,946 3,386 1,786 2,926 Total Distribution 57,336 57,336 52,146 52,146 57,686 1000 HA, MILLION TREES, 1000 60 KG BAGS Exchange Rate Exchange Rate (R$/US$1.00 - official rate, last day of period) Month 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 January 2.22 2.12 1.76 2.32 1.87 1.67 1.74 February 2.14 2.12 1.68 2.38 1.81 1.66 1.71 March 2.17 2.05 1.75 2.25 1.78 1.62 1.82 April 2.09 2.03 1.69 2.18 1.77 1.57 1.89 May 1/ 2.30 1.93 1.63 1.97 1.81 1.57 1.93 June 2.16 1.93 1.64 1.95 1.80 1.56 -- July 2.18 1.88 1.57 1.87 1.75 1.56 -- August 2.14 1.96 1.63 1.88 1.75 1.59 -- September 2.17 1.84 1.92 1.78 1.69 1.85 -- October 2.14 1.74 2.12 1.74 1.70 1.69 -- November 2.17 1.78 2.33 1.75 1.71 1.85 -- December 2.14 1.77 2.34 1.74 1.66 1.88 -- Source : Gazeta Mercantil and BACEN (as of October 2006) 1/ May 2012 refers to May 3.
Posted: 20 May 2012

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