Coffee Semi-annual

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Brazil

Posted on: 30 Nov 2011

This report updates BR10010. The ATO/Sao Paulo estimate for Brazilian coffee production during marketing year (MY) 2011/12 (July-June) remains unchanged at 49.2 million 60-kg bags, down 5.3 million bags compared to the previous year, due to the off-year of the biennial production cycle of the Arabica trees.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 11/10/2011 GAIN Report Number: BR110025 Brazil Coffee Semi-annual 2011 Approved By: Frederick Giles, Director Agricultural Trade Office, Sao Paulo Prepared By: Sergio Barros, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: This report updates BR10010. The ATO/Sao Paulo estimate for Brazilian coffee production during marketing year (MY) 2011/12 (July-June) remains unchanged at 49.2 million 60-kg bags, down 5.3 million bags compared to the previous year, due to the off-year of the biennial production cycle of the Arabica trees. Coffee exports are estimated at 29 million bags, down 6 million bags compared to MY 2010/11, due to lower availability of the product. Carry-over stocks are forecast at 3.38 million bags. Production In marketing year (MY) 2011/12 (July-June), the Agricultural Trade Office Sao Paulo (ATO) estimate for Brazilian coffee production remains unchanged at 49.2 million 60-kg bags, green equivalent. Arabica production accounts for 34.7 million bags, whereas Robusta production is estimated to contribute 14.5 million bags. The harvest ended in September and the dry weather that prevailed throughout the season improved the quality of the beans, which is reported as notably superior compared to 2010. According to industry sources, approximately 55 percent of the Brazilian 2011/12 crop has already been marketed. Area harvested and tree inventory estimates remain unchanged. In September 2011, the Brazilian government (GOB), through the National Supply Company (CONAB) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), released the third official coffee production estimate for MY 2011/12. As reported by CONAB, coffee production is estimated at 43.22 million bags, similar to the May 2010 crop survey (43.54 million bags), but down 4.94 million bags from MY 2010/11 (48.1 million bags). The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has released its September 2011 coffee production forecast for MY 2011/12. IBGE projects production of 2.668 million metric tons of coffee, or 44.5 million 60-kg coffee bags, a 7 percent decrease compared to MY 2010/11 (47.9 million bags). No official forecast has yet been announced for MY 2012/13. Industry sources report a first blossoming in some regions during late August and early September; and a significant blossoming in October after the beginning of the rainfall period in major coffee areas. If good weather conditions prevail, coffee trees will benefit from overall good crop management encouraged by strong prices during the year in spite of minor damages caused by a frost in late June and early July. In addition, arabica trees will be in the on-year of the biennial production cycle, therefore contributing to an expected increase in the coffee supply for the upcoming crop. Production Costs The table below shows updated production costs in Guaxupe ? Minas Gerais, one of the main coffee growing regions. Total costs in 2010 increased to US$ 179.87/bag, up US$ 56.53/bag or 46 percent compared to 2009 (US$ 123.34/bag), mainly due to the steady appreciation of the local currency, the real. Estimated Cost of Production - Arabica Coffee - Guaxupe - MG Growing Region, US$/60 kg-bag) ITEM 18-Apr-08 9-Feb-09 30-Nov-10 PLANTING COSTS 1 - Airplane operations 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 - Mechanized operations 3.17 4.24 9.36 3 - Land analysis, sacks and others 4.44 1.47 2.33 4 - Temporary labor (including benefits) 41.40 41.40 92.17 5 - Fixed labor (including benefits) 27.30 25.63 4.39 7 ? Seedling 0.00 0.00 0.00 8 - Fertilizer 27.75 19.90 24.31 9 ? Pesticide 9.86 9.99 14.77 TOTAL PLANTING COSTS (A) 113.94 102.64 147.33 II - COSTS AFTER HARVEST 1 - Transport (off-farm) 0.69 0.00 0.00 2 - Receiving, cleaning, drying, storage 0.00 1.89 2.62 3 ? PROAGRO 0.00 2.56 3.55 4 - Technical assistance 0.00 0.00 0.00 TOTAL COSTS AFTER HARVEST (B) 0.69 4.45 6.18 III - FINANCIAL COSTS 1 ? Interest 2.34 3.82 5.50 TOTAL FINANCIAL COSTS (C) 2.34 3.82 5.50 VARIABLE COSTS (A+B+C = D) 116.97 110.92 159.01 IV - DEPRECIATION 1 - Depreciation farm and improvements 1.56 0.37 0.41 2 - Implement depreciation 0.19 0.00 0.00 3 - Machinery depreciation 0.58 0.00 0.00 4 - Coffee plantation depreciation 17.82 6.83 12.85 TOTAL DEPRECIATION (E) 20.14 7.19 13.26 V - OTHER FIXED COSTS (F) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 - Regular machinery maintenance 0.28 0.02 0.02 2 - Insurance for fixed capital 0.22 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.36 TOTAL OTHER FIXED COSTS 0.50 0.06 0.43 FIXED COSTS (E+F = G) 20.63 7.26 13.69 OPERATIONAL COSTS (D+G = H) 137.61 118.17 172.69 VI - FACTOR INCOME 1 - Estimated income over fixed capital 3.52 0.34 0.38 2- Estimated income over coffee plantation 0.55 0.21 0.38 3 ? Land 5.75 4.62 6.41 TOTAL FACTOR INCOME 9.82 5.17 7.18 TOTAL COSTS (H+I = J) 147.43 123.34 179.87 Source: CONAB/DIGEM/SUINF/GECUP ROE: Apr/08 = R$ 1.67/US$ 1; Feb/09 = R$ 2.38/US$ 1; Nov/10 = 1.72/1 Yield = 25 bags/ha, except for Feb/09 and Nov/10 = 30 bags/ha Coffee Prices in the Domestic Market The table below shows the Coffee Index price series released by the University of Sao Paulo?s Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (ESALQ). The series tracks coffee prices in the domestic spot market starting in September 1996. Note that coffee prices remained strong in 2011 even during the peak of harvest season both in the local currency, the real, as well as in U.S. dollars (US$ 290.46/bag in October 2011 compared to US$ 192.44/bag in October 2010), due to lower availability of the product. In addition, coffee farmers have been retaining the product and selling only the necessary volumes to balance their cash-flows. Arabica Coffee Prices in the Domestic Market (Real, 60kg/bag). Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 January 281.63 267.84 268.41 280.75 433.34 February 267.66 285.19 269.34 278.68 495.98 March 252.72 263.28 262.48 279.70 524.27 April 238.88 256.35 260.10 282.18 524.41 May 232.20 254.84 268.02 289.46 530.76 June 240.80 255.76 256.64 305.98 514.99 July 238.63 250.51 247.50 302.36 457.81 August 254.54 248.86 255.34 313.93 470.62 September 259.15 261.58 254.29 328.23 511.57 October 255.84 256.84 262.20 327.15 490.45 November 1/ 245.82 261.28 272.55 355.51 467.70 December 261.28 262.04 281.57 387.01 --- Source: CEPEA/ESALQ/USP. 1/ November 2011 refers to November 3. Consumption Brazilian domestic consumption during MY 2011/12 is estimated at 19.76 million coffee bags (18.68 million bags of roast/ground and 1.08 million bags of soluble coffee, respectively). This is an increase of 380,000 bags relative to MY 2010/11 (19.38 million bags), reflecting updated information from the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC). ABIC reports that the coffee industry processed 19.38 million bags, green equivalent, from May 2010 to April 2011, up 2 percent compared to the same period the year before. Per capita consumption for 2011 is estimated at 4.98 kg of roasted coffee per person, up 3.5 percent from the previous year. ABIC estimates total domestic consumption for 2011 at 19.76 million bags, up 630,000 bags from 2010. As a consequence of recent mergers and acquisitions, ABIC is reviewing its methodology used to estimate coffee consumption in Brazil, to reflect the assimilation of smaller roasters into its memberships. Note that due to tight supply, the average retail coffee price in October 2011 was R$ 11.90 per kilogram, a 7 percent increase relative to the beginning of the year (R$ 11.12 per kilogram in January 2011). Total market sales are estimated at R$ 8 billion in 2011. The table below shows domestic ground and soluble coffee consumption as reported by ABIC. Domestic Ground and Soluble Coffee Consumption (Million 60 kg bags, Kg/year). Year Consumption (Million 60 kg bags) Consumption per capita (kg) Roast/Ground Soluble Total Roast Green Beans 2001 13.00 0.60 13.60 3.91 4.88 2002 13.30 0.74 14.04 3.86 4.83 2003 12.90 0.80 13.70 3.72 4.65 2004 14.10 0.80 14.90 4.01 5.01 2005 14.60 0.90 15.50 4.11 5.14 2006 15.40 0.93 16.33 4.27 5.34 2007 16.10 1.00 17.10 4.42 5.53 2008 16.68 0.98 17.66 4.51 5.64 2009 17.37 1.02 18.39 4.65 5.81 2010 18.06 1.07 19.13 4.81 6.02 2011 1/ 19.76 Source: Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC). 1/ Estimate Note: Estimates refer to November-October period. Trade Exports ATO/Sao Paulo estimates Brazilian coffee exports for MY 2011/12 at 29 million bags, down 6 million bags from the previous season, due to lower availability of the product. Green bean exports are likely to account for 25.93 million bags, while soluble coffee exports are forecast at 3 million bags. Coffee exports for MY 2010/11 were revised upward to 35 million 60-kg bags, green beans, an 18 percent increase relative to MY 2009/10, based on updated information from the industry. Green bean (arabica and robusta) exports are estimated at 31.81 million bags, whereas soluble coffee exports are estimated at 3.14 million bags. According to the September 2011 Coffee Market Report released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), total world coffee consumption for 2010 is estimated at 135 million bags, up 3million bags or a 2.3 percent growth relative to 2009 (132 million bags). The table below shows green coffee bean (NCM 0901.11.10), soluble coffee (NCM 2101.11.10) and roasted coffee exports (NCM 0901.21.00) by country of destination, according to SECEX, for MY 2010/11 and 2011/12 (July-September). Brazilian Green Coffee Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 0901.11.10, MT,US$ 000 FOB) MY 2010 / 11 1/ MY 2010 / 11 2/ MY 2011 / 12 2/ Coun try Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value U.S.A. 393,842 1,429,463 106,594 315,659 94,594 437,792 Germany 400,845 1,482,408 100,243 298,478 89,037 435,388 Italy 175,376 681,435 43,137 125,230 39,401 200,408 Japan 131,065 510,307 32,236 102,269 33,827 170,978 Belgium 139,936 537,075 27,504 87,060 27,560 137,113 Spain 55,512 202,657 11,957 34,605 13,808 66,279 France 41,828 149,228 11,508 32,536 10,493 45,243 Sweden 36,605 130,037 9,981 28,000 8,633 41,899 Argentina 28,137 76,890 6,416 14,561 8,068 28,091 Slovenia 42,976 110,353 14,961 34,772 7,463 26,228 Others 443,709 1,518,345 113,437 309,789 91,281 397,204 Total 1,889,830 6,828,198 477,975 1,382,959 424,165 1,986,622 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note: Numbers may note add rounding 1/July-June, 2/July-September Brazilian Roasted Coffee Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 0901.21.00, MT,US$ 000 FOB) MY 2010 / 11 1/ MY 2010 / 11 2/ MY 2011 / 12 2/ Coun try Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value U.S.A. 1,597 10,610 412 1,965 444 4,239 Italy 985 4,591 260 1,027 170 941 Bolivia 166 736 53 221 59 281 Japan 227 1,290 48 253 44 271 Chile 158 1,084 66 376 33 274 Argentina 198 1,560 59 421 28 274 Paraguay 98 457 33 139 28 159 Uruguay 91 370 25 92 19 97 Bahamas 16 116 3 21 9 75 Georgia 12 55 5 22 9 42 Others 244 1,743 72 435 35 324 Total 3,792 22,612 1,037 4,971 877 6,978 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note: Numbers may note add rounding 1/July-June, 2/July-September Brazilian Soluble Coffee Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 2101.11.10, MT,US$ 000 FOB) MY 2010 / 11 1/ MY 2010 / 11 2/ MY 2011 / 12 2/ Coun try Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value U.S.A 13,635 77,034 3,855 19,801 3,709 28,159 Ucraine 5,062 40,631 1,475 11,049 1,970 17,843 Russia 8,727 72,339 1,805 13,577 1,938 19,954 Argentina 5,858 31,433 1,226 6,057 1,817 11,378 Japan 4,000 29,532 959 6,642 1,282 10,625 Indonesia 2,414 16,001 462 3,083 1,050 7,955 Burma 1,853 10,131 756 3,936 749 5,253 Germany 2,877 22,102 862 6,344 705 6,018 Canada 2,669 24,102 609 4,854 625 6,863 Belgium 1,128 9,598 249 2,009 538 4,501 Others 29,082 241,286 6,985 53,305 6,807 67,282 Total 77,307 574,189 19,245 130,659 21,192 185,830 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note: Numbers may note add rounding 1/July-June, 2/July-September The tables below include data on monthly coffee exports (quantity and value) for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 (July-September), as reported by Brazilian Green Coffee Association (CECAFE) and the Brazilian Soluble Coffee Association (ABICS). Total coffee exports during MY 2010/11 period were 35.01 million bags, up 5.23 million bags relative to MY 2009/10 (29.78 million bags). Preliminary data show that coffee export registrations for October 2011 were 3.23 million bags while cumulative green coffee export shipments for October 2011 are 3 million bags. Brazilian Monthly Coffee Exports for MY 2010/11 (Thousand 60-kg bag, green equivalent). Month Conillon Arabica Roasted Total Green Soluble Total Jul-10 161.20 2,027.18 4.05 2,192.43 270.65 2,463.09 Aug-10 133.85 2,465.95 4.68 2,604.48 209.00 2,813.48 Sep-10 157.03 2,828.39 4.81 2,990.23 289.93 3,280.16 Oct-10 114.96 3,076.67 5.78 3,197.41 293.14 3,490.55 Nov-10 96.50 2,830.74 5.01 2,932.25 243.62 3,175.87 Dec-10 74.49 3,056.63 5.26 3,136.38 288.41 3,424.79 Jan-11 65.60 2,527.11 4.71 2,597.42 197.34 2,794.76 Feb-11 53.11 2,417.98 4.64 2,475.73 242.52 2,718.25 Mar-11 190.85 2,213.85 4.88 2,409.58 322.08 2,731.65 Apr-11 322.29 2,145.67 4.39 2,472.35 272.28 2,744.63 May-11 351.31 2,052.39 6.79 2,410.49 231.83 2,642.32 Jun-11 414.28 2,033.61 5.81 2,453.70 276.10 2,729.80 Cumulative 2,135.45 29,676.16 60.84 31,872.45 3,136.89 35,009.34 Source: CECAFE and ABICS. Brazilian Monthly Coffee Exports for MY 2011/12 (Thousand 60-kg bag, green equivalent). Month Conillon Arabica Roasted Total Green Soluble Total Jul-11 265.74 1,531.88 4.49 1,802.12 260.22 2,062.34 Aug-11 321.39 2,311.92 4.31 2,637.62 274.51 2,912.13 Sep-11 219.66 2,334.21 3.97 2,557.84 304.37 2,862.21 Cumulative 806.79 6,178.01 12.78 6,997.58 839.10 7,836.68 Source: CECAFE and ABICS. Brazilian Monthly Coffee Exports for MY 2010/11 (US$ 1,000,000). Month Conillon Arabica Roasted Total Green Soluble Total Jul-10 16.05 335.27 0.96 352.27 42.07 394.34 Aug-10 14.02 431.58 1.30 446.90 34.21 481.10 Sep-10 16.34 516.90 1.15 534.39 45.70 580.08 Oct-10 12.45 592.18 1.88 606.51 49.17 655.68 Nov-10 10.42 566.76 1.58 578.76 41.70 620.45 Dec-10 8.17 642.60 1.72 652.48 48.19 700.67 Jan-11 7.54 553.60 1.44 562.59 33.02 595.61 Feb-11 6.58 567.34 1.49 575.41 43.14 618.55 Mar-11 26.10 571.65 1.54 599.30 57.44 656.74 Apr-11 45.98 592.99 1.53 640.50 50.56 691.05 May-11 50.18 611.16 2.17 663.51 45.72 709.23 Jun-11 58.91 604.63 2.10 665.64 54.11 719.76 Cumulative 272.74 6,586.65 18.85 6,878.24 545.02 7,423.26 Source: CECAFE and ABICS. Brazilian Monthly Coffee Exports for MY 2011/12 (US$ 1,000,000). Month Conillon Arabica Roasted Total Green Soluble Total Jul-11 38.43 444.84 1.85 485.12 53.79 538.91 Aug-11 45.30 685.77 2.05 733.12 56.96 790.07 Sep-11 31.22 709.40 1.62 742.24 63.09 805.32 Cumulative 114.95 1,840.00 5.52 1,960.48 173.84 2,134.31 Source: CECAFE and ABICS. Stocks ATO/Sao Paulo estimates ending stocks in MY 2011/12 at 3.39 million bags, slightly up from the previous season (2.95 million bags). Coffee stocks held by MAPA/DECAF (Funcafe stocks) are estimated at approximately 490,000 bags, whereas CONAB coffee stocks on March are reported at 1.62 million bags. The results from CONAB?s 2011 private stocks survey, including stocks held by growers, coffee cooperatives, exporters, roasters and the soluble industry on March 31st were 9.24 million bags, up 300,000 bags from the previous year. The table below shows the results of the last three private stock surveys released by CONAB. Brazilian Private Coffee Carry-Over Stocks (60-kg Bags) Mar 31, 2009 Mar 31, 2010 Mar 31, 2011 2008 crop 2009 crop 2010 crop Arabica Conillon Arabica Conillon Arabica Conillon Industry 796,509 276,387 739,812 172,121 667,851 319,927 Roasters 721,712 138,250 560,752 140,645 Soluble 18,100 33,871 107,099 179,282 Exporters 3,271,167 134,435 1,931,899 194,619 2,162,713 387,393 Coops 5,671,240 72,884 3,042,082 154,843 2,438,153 17,630 Others 4,265,863 167,913 2,531,543 177,069 2,964,091 280,377 Total 14,004,779 651,619 8,245,336 698,652 8,232,808 1,005,327 GrandTotal 14,656,398 8,943,988 9,238,135 Source: CONAB, Annual Carry Over Stock Surveys - Reference Month = March 31st. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics Coffee, Green Brazil 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 2,395 2,395 2,409 2,409 2,410 2,410 Area Harvested 2,151 2,151 2,175 2,175 2,150 2,150 Bearing Trees 5,725 5,725 5,820 5,820 5,760 5,760 Non-Bearing Trees 873 873 815 815 835 835 Total Tree Population 6,598 6,598 6,635 6,635 6,595 6,595 Beginning Stocks 6,576 6,576 2,836 2,836 3,836 2,946 Arabica Production 33,000 33,000 41,800 41,800 34,700 34,700 Robusta Production 11,800 11,800 12,700 12,700 14,500 14,500 Other Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Production 44,800 44,800 54,500 54,500 49,200 49,200 Bean Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Roast & Ground Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Soluble Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 51,376 51,376 57,336 57,336 53,036 52,146 Bean Exports 26,580 26,580 30,630 31,810 24,930 25,930 Rst-Grnd Exp. 80 80 70 60 70 70 Soluble Exports 3,120 3,120 3,300 3,140 3,000 3,000 Total Exports 29,780 29,780 34,000 35,010 28,000 29,000 Rst,Ground Dom. Consum 17,720 17,720 18,470 18,300 19,020 18,680 Soluble Dom. Cons. 1,040 1,040 1,030 1,080 1,080 1,080 Domestic Use 18,760 18,760 19,500 19,380 20,100 19,760 Ending Stocks 2,836 2,836 3,836 2,946 4,936 3,386 Total Distribution 51,376 51,376 57,336 57,336 53,036 52,146 1000 HA, MILLION TREES, 1000 60 KG BAGS Exchange Rate Exchange Rate (R$/US$1.00 - official rate, last day of period) Month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 January 2.62 2.22 2.12 1.76 2.32 1.87 1.67 February 2.60 2.14 2.12 1.68 2.38 1.81 1.66 March 2.67 2.17 2.05 1.75 2.25 1.78 1.62 April 2.53 2.09 2.03 1.69 2.18 1.77 1.57 May 2.40 2.30 1.93 1.63 1.97 1.81 1.57 June 2.35 2.16 1.93 1.64 1.95 1.80 1.56 July 2.39 2.18 1.88 1.57 1.87 1.75 1.56 August 2.36 2.14 1.96 1.63 1.88 1.75 1.59 September 2.22 2.17 1.84 1.92 1.78 1.69 1.85 October 2.25 2.14 1.74 2.12 1.74 1.70 1.69 November 1/ 2.21 2.17 1.78 2.33 1.75 1.71 1.73 December 2.26 2.14 1.77 2.34 1.74 1.66 -- Source : Gazeta Mercantil and BACEN (as of October 2006) 1/ November 2011 refers to November 3.
Posted: 30 November 2011

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