Oilseeds and Products Update 2012

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Brazil

Posted on: 24 Nov 2012

No changes to report in Post’s production, supply and demand estimates for Brazil’s 2012/13 soybean crop.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 10/30/2012 GAIN Report Number: BR0823 Brazil Oilseeds and Products Update 2012-13 Soybean Planting Update Approved By: Bob Hoff, Agricultural Counselor Prepared By: Jeff Zimmerman, Agricultural Attaché Report Highlights: No changes to report in Post’s production, supply and demand estimates for Brazil’s 2012/13 soybean crop. Brazil’s 2012/13 planting is estimated at 30 percent completed around 4 percentage points ahead of the 5 year-historic average, but the pace is 13 percentage points lower than last year at this time. Excessive rains in the South region of Brazil coupled with irregular rains in the Center-West have contributed to this slower planting pace. The agreement known as the Soybean Moratorium was renewed for one more year effective until January 31, 2014. Production, Supply, and Demand Statistics: Oilseed, Soybean 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 (Local) Brazil Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Feb 2011 Feb 2012 Feb 2013 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 24,200 24,200 25,000 25,000 27,500 27,500 Area Harvested 24,200 24,200 25,000 24,885 27,500 27,500 Beginning Stocks 3,267 1,250 4,754 2,851 1,479 251 Production 75,500 75,300 66,500 66,500 81,000 82,000 MY Imports 40 41 300 200 50 40 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 78,807 76,591 71,554 69,551 82,529 82,291 MY Exports 33,789 33,790 31,800 31,100 38,225 38,500 MY Exp. to EU 5,581 5,581 5,300 5,300 5,300 5,700 Crush 37,264 36,850 35,275 35,200 37,700 38,500 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 3,000 3,100 3,000 3,000 3,150 3,200 Total Dom. Cons. 40,264 39,950 38,275 38,200 40,850 41,700 Ending Stocks 4,754 2,851 1,479 251 3,454 2,091 Total Distribution 78,807 76,591 71,554 69,551 82,529 82,291 1000 HA, 1000 MT Brazil’s 2012/13 Soybean bean Crop Estimate Remains Unchanged at a Record 82 Million Metric Tons Post maintains last month’s production, supply and demand estimates for the 2012/13 Brazilian soybean crop. Post’s 2012/13 production forecast of 82 million metric tons (mmt) is within the range of those of private consulting groups Agroconsult, Safras e Mercado, and Céleres that estimate 83.7 mmt, 82.5 mmt, and 79.8 mmt, respectively. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture’s Food Supply Company (CONAB) estimated soybean bean production in the range of 80 - 82.8 mmt in its first 2012/13 crop survey published in October. Brazil’s 2012/13 Planting Pace Slower than last year due to Irregular Weather Patterns Brazil’s 2012/13 planting is estimated at 30 percent completed around 4 percentage points ahead of the 5 year-historic average, but the pace is 13 percentage points lower than last year at this time. Excessive rains in the South region of Brazil coupled with irregular rains in the Center-West have contributed to this slower planting pace. According to private consulting firm Safras e Mercado’s October 26th survey, the planting pace of the top three producing states is slower than last year with Mato Grosso, Parana, and Rio Grande do Sul lower by 18, 4 and 5 percentage points, respectively. However, of the top three soybean producing states, only Rio Grande do Sul is at a lower rate of planting than the five-year historic average, off only by 1 percentage point. The leading state of Mato Grosso followed by the second-ranked state of Parana remain ahead of the five-year historic average planting pace by 5 and 17 percentage points, respectively. A number of other producing states are in the same scenario with plantings lower than last year at this time, but still slightly ahead of the five-year historic average. Southern Brazil, mainly the state of Rio Grande do Sul, has experienced at times excessive rains that have slowed the pace of soybean plantings. In addition, a small percentage of earlier planted corn in the South that was lost to frost or hail will be replanted to soybeans. In the Center-West, any area not yet planted to soybeans presents increased risk for the subsequent second season corn crop as the ideal planting window is no longer achievable. Soybeans remain the favored crop in Brazil due to their liquidity and ease of crop management. Brazilian Soybean Moratorium Renewed until January 31, 2014 On October 26, 2012 the commitment known as the Soybean Moratorium was extended until January 31, 2014. Originally created on July 24, 2006 under market pressure from the European Union’s food industry, a moratorium on the origination of soybeans from any newly deforested areas in the Amazon biome as of that date was declared by all major soybean traders including, but not limited to Cargill, Bunge, ADM, Dreyfus, Noble Group and the Amaggi Group. Non-governmental organizations that support the moratorium include, but are not limited to Conservation International, Greenpeace, The Nature Conservancy, and the World Wide Fund for Nature – Brazil. The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) and the National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) are both founding signatories to the moratorium. Since 2008, the Brazilian Ministry of Environment has been a signatory to the agreement. In 2010, the Bank of Brazil joined the agreement and made its financing available only to producers in compliance with the terms of the soybean moratorium. The Soybean Moratorium has supported anti-deforestation efforts with soybean production shown to occupy less than 0.5 percent of deforested areas in the Amazon biome since its inception. ABIOVE indicated the decision to renew the Soybean Moratorium was based on two reasons: 1) The new Forest Code legislation that will bring legal clarity to rural property holdings still has a phase-in period for producers to come into compliance with the new regulation; 2) recent findings in increased deforestation in the states of Mato Grosso and Para to soybean plantings signal the need for the Soybean Moratorium to be extended one more year. The new Forest Code requires a Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) for each property holder that will allow the pertinent environmental authority to accompany land usage and penalize those in non-compliance. Other relevant reports: 2012 October - Soybean Update Report 2012 Soybean Annual Report
Posted: 24 November 2012

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