Poultry and Products Annual

An Expert's View about Poultry in Brazil

Last updated: 29 Sep 2011

Post forecasts broiler production in 2012 to increase by 5 percent and reach another record of 13.6 million metric tons supported by a firm domestic demand and higher exports, mostly to emerging markets.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 9/2/2011 GAIN Report Number: BR 0714 Brazil Poultry and Products Annual Poultry Annual 2011 Approved By: Jeff Zimmerman, Agricultural Attaché Prepared By: João F. Silva, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Post forecasts broiler production in 2012 to increase by 5 percent and reach another record of 13.6 million metric tons supported by a firm domestic demand and higher exports, mostly to emerging markets. Despite the uncertainties of the world economy, analysts are optimistic about the growth of the Brazilian economy in 2012 which is fueling the rising of household income and supporting demand for animal proteins, particularly broiler given its relatively lower prices, compared to other meats. Turkey production and exports are expected to slow down in 2012. Page 1 Executive Summary: Post forecasts broiler production to increase by 5 percent in 2012 reflecting a general opinion among economic analysts that Brazil?s economic growth is expected to remain firm in 2012, although at a lower rate, and a continued high level of domestic consumption, including animal proteins, derived mostly from the new Brazilian middle class. However, there are three major economic concerns with the economy: a) high interest rates, valuation of the Brazilian currency, and rising inflation. Despite the uncertainties of the world economy due to the debt crisis in Europe and in the United States, trade sources also forecast broiler exports to increase by 5 percent next year as a result of higher exports, especially to the Middle East, and other emerging markets. The outlook for turkey production and exports is for less growth than previous years. There are changes to our S&D for broiler in 2011 to reflect new data released by our trade sources. Commodities: Poultry, Meat, Broiler Production Post forecasts broiler production in 2012 to increase by 5 percent and reach another record of 13.6 million metric tons. Our forecast reflects general optimism among producers and traders that the Brazilian economy will continue to increase in 2012, although at a lower growth rate, but lower unemployment rate and rising household income, will likely maintain domestic demand for broiler firm. Brazilian traders also believe that rising income in the emerging markets will maintain demand for animal proteins relatively strong next year. In addition to these factors, broiler producers, mostly those under integration systems, expect to have positive returns as feed prices are likely to remain stable in view of higher corn and soybean supplies. The federal government can also use estimated higher corn stocks through auctions where the government subsidizes the transportation costs from the major producing areas in the Center-West regions to the poultry producing areas in the Northeast, thus reducing the pressure on corn prices to the main poultry producing areas of the Southeast of Brazil. Production costs Post projects feed prices to remain stable during the 2011-12 with estimated record soybean and corn crops, as the new crop plan announced by the federal government makes available US$ 67 billion in subsidized funds to boost production of grains and oilseeds during the coming crop year (October 1, 2011/September 30, 2012). Also of note is that Brazil will be producing a large amount of biotech corn. Trade sources estimate that up to 75 percent of the crop is likely to be biotech which is expected to increase yields. In 2011, some broiler producers also begin to use sorghum as an alternative feed source for high-priced corn. Although this trend is expected to continue in the future, the substitution is not Page 2 expected to displace traditional feed sources and it is more focused on non-integrated poultry producers outside of the main producing areas. Consumption Broiler meat consumption continues to grow because of the rising domestic demand for animal protein, of which broiler meat benefits most due to the relatively lower prices for boiler meat compared to other kinds of meat, particularly beef. Domestic demand for animal protein continues to rise in Brazil due the estimated 33 million people who since 2003 have risen to the ranks of the so-called ?new middle classes? or above. Today, 105 million Brazilians out of a total population of 195 million are members of this group. Prices Sao Paulo: Broiler production costs and wholesale prices for broilers (RTC), corn, and soybean meal (Sao Paulo state): Wholesale Prices Year Broiler Cost (US$/KG/Live Weight) Live RTC Corn Soybean Meal Weight (US$/KG) (US$/60/KG) (US$/KG) (US$/KG) 2000 0.47 0.50 0.68 7.78 0.18 2001 0.38 0.41 0.53 4.64 0.19 2002 0.39 0.39 0.50 6.26 0.18 2003 0.47 0.47 0.54 6.54 0.21 2004 0.51 0.51 0.54 6.31 0.23 2005 0.56 0.56 0.55 7.33 0.21 2006 0.54 0.54 0.65 8.00 0.21 2007 0.72 0.80 1.07 11.99 0.28 2008 0.97 0.89 1.27 13.89 0.39 2009 0.83 0.82 1.21 10.45 0.41 2010 0.87 0.94 2.02 12.14 0.36 2011 1.12 1.15 2.45 18.84 0.40 (Jan- Jun) RTC= Ready to Cook Source: Trade Page 3 Page 4 Trade Post forecasts broiler exports to increase by 5 percent in 2012, another record. The growth in exports is likely to be driven by higher sales to the Middle East. Brazilian traders also estimated a continued increase in their exports to their traditional markets such as Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union. The strategic focus of the largest Brazilian poultry processor and exporter (BRF) is the Middle East where the company announced a total investment of $ 120 million to build a processing plant in the United Arab Emirates with a total processing capacity of 80,000 metric tons. The strategy in the Middle East, which accounts for nearly 32 percent of the company?s exports, is to produce further processed broiler products. Market promotion efforts will continue in their traditional markets in the Middle East, Europe, and Russia, but it will incorporate market activities in new open markets in Malaysia, Indonesia and Africa. Brazilian poultry exporters also have some constraints for 2012. In addition to the valuation of the Brazilian currency and the impact of the current debt crisis in Europe and the United States, there are some specific concerns with Russia and Venezuela. The delisting of Brazilian plants (beef, pork and pork) by Russian officials is a major non-resolved issue between the two countries which will mostly affect the 2011 exports, but with an estimated negative impact in next year?s exports. Venezuela has become an instable market for Brazilian meat exporters in general due mostly to delinquent payments. Post also revised trade data for 2011 to show an increase of more than 6 percent in the volume of broiler exports, mostly due to higher exports to Saudi Arabia, Japan, Hong Kong, China and the European Union. However, the value of Brazilian broiler exports in 2011 will likely increase by over 20 percent, reflecting a major increase in the average export price of chicken from U$1,660 per metric ton in 2010 to US$2,020 per metric tons in 2011. Policy The Brazilian antitrust regulator (CADE) approved the merger of Sadia and Perdigão, Brazil?s two largest food processors to create Brazil Foods S.A. (BRF). The new company will hold approximately 35 percent of the domestic market share and more than half of the export market. Page 5 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Pou ltry, Meat, Broiler B 2010 2011 2012 razil Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 2011 2012 USDA New Official P USDA Official New Post New Post ost Inventory (Reference) 50 54 54 55 (MIL HEAD) Slaughter (Reference) 6,050 6,350 6,352 6,670 (MIL HEAD) Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Production 12,312 12,925 12,954 13,602 (1000 MT) Whole, Imports 1 1 1 1 (1000 MT) Parts, Imports 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Other Imports 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Imports 1 0 1 1 1 (1000 MT) Total Supply 12,313 0 12,926 12,955 13,603 (1000 MT) Whole, Exports 1,488 1,555 1,352 1,490 (1000 MT) Parts, Exports 1,693 1,755 2,029 2,060 (1000 MT) Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Other Exports 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Exports 3,181 0 3,310 3,381 3,550 (1000 MT) Human Consumption 9,132 9,616 9,574 10,053 (1000 MT) Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Consumption 9,132 0 9,616 9,574 10,053 (1000 MT) Total Use 12,313 0 12,926 12,955 13,603 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 12,313 0 12,926 12,955 13,603 (1000 MT) Note: The S&D table excludes chicken feet and paws exports to China and Hong Kong, as per USDA export methodology Page 6 Export Trade Matrix Country Brazil Commodity Poultry, Meat, Broile r Time Period Jan-Jun Units: Metric Tons Exports for: 2010 2011 U.S. 0 U.S. 0 Others Others Angola 31,646 40,054 Canada 8,217 8,082 China 48,920 83,201 Cuba 20,337 18,553 Egypt 37,905 28,570 European Union 127,435 154,249 Hong Kong 175,191 159,894 Iran 14,107 30,138 Iraq 57,146 64,529 Japan 186,789 224,642 Jordan 27,410 14,338 Kuwait 87,368 95,492 Oman 23,335 26,792 Qatar 24,813 26,502 Russia 48,076 43,149 Romania 6,587 5,469 Saudi Arabia 249,069 296,872 Singapore 35,158 30,027 South Africa 95,152 100,926 South Korea 16,444 10,611 UAE 111,266 112,938 Yemen 30,147 26,221 Venezuela 81,055 75,465 Total for Others 1,543,573 1,676,714 Others not Listed 177,930 164,627 Grand Total 1,721,503 1,841,341 Note: Includes HTS Codes: 0207.11; 02 07.12; 0207.13; 0207.14 ; and 1602.32 Quant ity in Product Weight Equivalent (PWE) Upda ted: July 25, 2011 Page 7 Commodities: Poultry, Meat, Turkey Production The Brazilian turkey market is forecasted to slow down its growth in 2012 due to weaker export forecast, compared to previous years. Domestic demand for turkey is basically supporting an increase in production, although consumption of whole turkey remains highly seasonal in Brazil. Post made changes in turkey production in 2011 to include new data provided by the Poultry Producers Association and to reflect a major drop in turkey exports. Trade The outlook for turkey exports in 2012 calls for shipments to new markets in Asia such as Malaysia and Indonesia for the Brazilian product. Traders also expect to increase exports to the European Union after a major drop in 2011. Page 8 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Pou ltry, Meat, Turkey B 2010 2011 2012 razil Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New O ew Post fficial Post Official P Nost Inventory (Reference) 0 0 0 0 0 (MIL HEAD) Slaughter (Reference) 45 45 47 46 47 (MIL HEAD) Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Production 485 485 510 505 531 (1000 MT) Whole, Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Parts, Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Other Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Supply 485 485 510 505 531 (1000 MT) Whole, Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Parts, Exports 164 158 165 140 146 (1000 MT) Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Exports 164 158 165 140 146 (1000 MT) Human Consumption 321 327 345 365 385 (1000 MT) Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Consumption 321 327 345 365 385 (1000 MT) Total Use 485 485 510 505 531 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 485 485 510 505 531 (1000 MT) Page 9 Export Trade Matrix Country Brazil Commodity Poultry, Me at, Turkey Time Period Jan-Jun Units: Metric Tons Exports for: 2010 2011 U.S. 0 U.S. 0 Others Others Angola 4,125 4,242 Benin 3,871 4,752 Congo 1,717 2,117 Congo, D.R. 1,065 654 Gabon 2,070 967 Guinea, E. 1,054 1,475 European Union 48,124 33,852 Hong Kong 1,891 779 Peru 1,250 727 Russia 3,259 3,941 South Africa 6,191 5,382 Switzerland 1,104 1,095 Total for Others 75,721 59,983 Others not Listed 4,078 4,460 Grand Total 79,799 64,443 Note: It includes HTS Codes : 02072400; 0 2072500; 02 072600; 02072700; 16023100. Quantity in Product Weight Equivalent (PWE) Updated: July 25, 2011 Page 10
Posted: 29 September 2011, last updated 29 September 2011

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