Coffee Annual 2011

An Expert's View about Coffee and Tea in Brazil

Last updated: 30 May 2011

For the marketing year (MY) 2011/2012 (July-June) the Agricultural Trade Office Sao Paulo (ATO) forecasts Brazilian coffee production at 49.2 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), green equivalent, a 10 percent decrease compared to MY 2010/11.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 5/9/2011 GAIN Report Number: BR110010 Brazil Coffee Annual 2011 Approved By: Frederick Giles, Director Agricultural Trade Office, Sao Paulo Prepared By: Sergio Barros, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: This report updates BR10008. ATO/Sao Paulo forecasts the Brazilian coffee production for marketing year (MY) 2011/12 (July-June) at 49.2 million 60-kg bags, down 10 percent vis-à-vis last season, due to the off-year of the biennial production cycle of the Arabica trees. In MY 2011/12 coffee exports are forecast at 28 million bags, down 6 million bags compared to MY 2010/11, due to likely lower availability of the product. Carry-over stocks are forecast at 4.9 million bags, as a result of the expected tight supply. Production For the marketing year (MY) 2011/2012 (July-June) the Agricultural Trade Office Sao Paulo (ATO) forecasts Brazilian coffee production at 49.2 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), green equivalent, a 10 percent decrease compared to MY 2010/11. Post conducted field trips to major coffee producing areas to evaluate the 2011 crop. Trips were made during the January-February 2011 period to the states of Minas Gerais, Parana and Sao Paulo to observe vegetative development, cherry set and fruit formation. Information for other producing states was obtained from government sources, state secretariats of agriculture, producers associations, cooperatives and traders. The drop in production is due to the biennial production cycle of arabica trees, which are in the off- year of the production cycle for most of the regions and are expected to produce 34.7 million bags, a 17 percent decrease compared to the previous season. Nevertheless, strong blossoming early in the crop season; combined with favorable good weather conditions throughout the season, and good crop management (including pruning and renewed coffee plantations with higher number of trees per hectare) supported ideal cherry setting and development and will guarantee the uniformity of the beans. Robusta production is expected to increase to 14.5 miilion bags, up 1.8 million bags from the previous MY, due to the strong crop expected in Espirito Santo. Overall, good weather conditions and crop management, and the use of irrigation in coffee plantations have benefited fruit setting and development. However, the Robusta production in Rondonia should be negatively affected by the dry weather during the blossoming. Robusta producing regions began harvest in March/April, whereas Arabica coffee harvest should begin in May. As in 2010, a large volume of washed arabica coffee is likely to be harvested in 2011 (4 to 5 million bags), to satisfy market share gained over Colombian and Central American coffee beans. ATO/Sao Paulo?s estimate for the MY 2010/11 coffee crop remains unchanged at 54.5 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), green equivalent. According to industry sources, over 90 percent of the Brazilian 2009/10 crop has already been marketed. The 2010 crop quality was somewhat affected by the non-uniformity of the beans, due to the multiple blossoming that occurred in the second semester of 2009. The table below shows forecast production by state and variety for MY 2011/12, as well as producti on estimates from MY 2007/08 to MY 2010/11. Brazilian Coffee Production (Million 60-kg bags) State/Variety MY 07/08 MY 08/09 MY 09/10 MY 10/11 MY 11/12 Minas Gerais 18.10 26.90 22.10 28.50 23.50 Southwest 9.40 14.90 12.10 16.00 11.50 Central-western 3.20 5.10 4.20 5.50 4.50 Southeast 5.50 6.90 5.80 7.00 7.50 Espirito Santo 10.40 12.10 10.60 11.50 13.50 Arabica 2.20 2.90 2.40 3.10 2.70 Robusta 8.20 9.20 8.20 8.40 10.80 Sao Paulo 3.10 4.90 4.20 5.00 4.10 Parana 2.00 2.70 1.90 2.40 1.90 Others 5.50 6.70 6.00 7.10 6.20 Arabica 2.25 3.10 2.40 2.80 2.50 Robusta 3.25 3.60 3.60 4.30 3.70 Total 39.10 53.30 44.80 54.50 49.20 Arabica 27.65 40.50 33.00 41.80 34.70 Robusta 11.45 12.80 11.80 12.70 14.50 Source: ATO/Sao Paulo. In January 2011, the Brazilian government (GoB), through the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply?s (MAPA) National Supply Company (CONAB), released its first survey projecting Brazilian coffee production. For MY 2011/12, between 41.89 and 44.73 million 60-kg bags are forecast, a 3.36 to 6.20 million bag reduction compared to the final estimate for MY 2010/11 (48.09 million bags ? 36.82 and 11.27 million bags of Arabica and robusta coffee, respectively). CONAB projects arabica production between 30.96 and 33.17 million bags, whereas the robusta crop is estimated between 10.93 and 11.56 million bags. CONAB is expected to release the second coffee survey for the 2011 crop on May 10. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has also released its March 2011 coffee production forecast for MY 2011/12. The IBGE forecast for the 2011 coffee crop is 2.597 million metric tons of coffee, or 43.29 million 60-kg coffee bags, a 10 percent decrease compared to 2010 (2.874 million tons or 47.91 million bags). Coffee Area Tree Inventory The table below shows the Brazilian coffee area and tree population from MY 2007/08 through MY 2011/12. Brazilian Coffee Area andTree Population (billion trees, million hectares, thousand trees/hectare) MY 07/08 MY 08/09 MY 09/10 MY 10/11 MY 11/12 Total Trees 6,399 6,567 6,598 6,635 6,595 Non-Bearing 679 677 873 815 835 Bearing 5,720 5,890 5,725 5,820 5,760 Total Area 2,431 2,424 2,395 2,409 2,410 Non-Bearing 196 201 244 234 260 Harvested 2,235 2,223 2,151 2,175 2,150 Trees/ha 2,632 2,710 2,755 2,754 2,737 Non-Bearing 3,468 3,368 3,578 3,483 3,212 Bearing 2,559 2,650 2,662 2,676 2,679 Source: ATO/Sao Paulo Yields During MY 2011/12, the Brazilian coffee yield is projected at 22.88 bags/hectare, a 9 percent decrease relative to previous the crop (25.06 bags/ha.), mainly due to the off-year of the biennial production cycle of arabica trees. Coffee Prices in the Domestic Market The table below shows the Coffee Index price series released by the University of Sao Paulo?s Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (ESALQ). The series tracks coffee prices in the domestic spot market since September 1996. Note that coffee prices have significantly increased in MY 2010/11 both in the local currency, the Real, as well as in U.S. dollars (US$ 323.62/bag in March 2011 vis- à-vis US$ 157.04/bag in March 2010), due to the expected lower availability of the product in MY 2011/12. Arabica Coffee Prices in the Domestic Market (Real, 60kg/bag). Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 January 281.63 267.84 268.41 280.75 433.34 February 267.66 285.19 269.34 278.68 495.98 March 252.72 263.28 262.48 279.70 524.27 April 238.88 256.35 260.10 282.18 524.41 May 232.20 254.84 268.02 289.46 531.86 June 240.80 255.76 256.64 305.98 July 238.63 250.51 247.50 302.36 August 254.54 248.86 255.34 313.93 September 259.15 261.58 254.29 328.23 October 255.84 256.84 262.20 327.15 November 245.82 261.28 272.55 355.51 December 261.28 262.04 281.57 387.01 Source: CEPEA/ESALQ/USP. May 2011 refers to May 06. Consumption Brazilian domestic consumption during MY 2011/12 is forecast at 20.1 million coffee bags (19.02 million bags of roast/ground and 1.08 million bags of soluble coffee, respectively), up 600,000 bags vis-à-vis the previous season, reflecting results from the newest domestic consumption survey released by the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC). Brazilian consumption for MY 2010/11 is estimated at 19.5 million 60-kg bags, green equivalent, up 4 percent compared to MY 2009/10 (18.76 million bags). Roast and ground coffee consumption accounted for 18.47 million bags, whereas soluble consumption is estimated at 1.03 million bags. Estimates are based on periodic surveys conducted by ABIC and reflect population growth, increased per capita consumption, increased purchasing power, increased quality of the domestic brands, strong growth of superior and gourmet coffee (15 to 20 percent annual increase) and the effects of domestic campaigns to promote coffee consumption. ABIC reports that the coffee industry processed 19.13 million bags, green equivalent, from November 2009 to October 2010, up 4 percent compared to the same period the year before (18.39 million bags). Per capita consumption for 2010 is estimated at 4.81 kg of roasted coffee per person, up 3 percent from the previous year, similar to coffee consumption in Germany (5.86 kg/person), but still quite below the domestic consumption in the Nordic countries (13 kg/person). ABIC projects total domestic consumption for 2011 at 20.27 million bags, up 1.1 million bags from 2010, if prices hold steady for the year. Note that due to the tight supply of the product, the average retail coffee price in December 2010 was R$ 11.12 per kilogram, a 7 percent increase relative to the beginning of the year (R$ 10.39 per kilogram in January 2010). Total market sales are estimated at R$ 7 billion in 2010 and projected at R$ 7.5 billion for 2011. If the steady growth in the domestic market remains, the symbolic goal set by ABIC in 2004 to reach a 21 million bag consumption level by 2010 will be reached in 2012. The table below shows domestic ground and soluble coffee consumption as reported by ABIC. Domestic Ground and Soluble Coffee Consumption (Million 60 kg bags, Kg/year). Year Consumption (Million 60 kg bags) Consumption per capita (kg) Roast/Ground Soluble Total Roast Green Beans 2001 13.00 0.60 13.60 3.91 4.88 2002 13.30 0.74 14.04 3.86 4.83 2003 12.90 0.80 13.70 3.72 4.65 2004 14.10 0.80 14.90 4.01 5.01 2005 14.60 0.90 15.50 4.11 5.14 2006 15.40 0.93 16.33 4.27 5.34 2007 16.10 1.00 17.10 4.42 5.53 2008 16.68 0.98 17.66 4.51 5.64 2009 17.37 1.02 18.39 4.65 5.81 2010 18.06 1.07 19.13 4.81 6.02 2011 1/ 20.27 Source: Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC). 1/ Projection Note: Estimates refer to November-October period. Trade Exports Total Brazilian coffee exports for MY 2011/12 are projected at 28 million bags, down 6 million bags as opposed to the previous crop, due to expected lower product availability. Green bean exports are likely to account for 24.93 million bags, while soluble coffee exports are forecast at 3 million bags. Brazilian Arabica coffee remains competitive in international markets in spite of higher production costs and the steady devaluation of the dollar vis-à-vis the Real. Coffee exports for MY 2010/11 were revised upward to 34 million 60-kg bags, green beans, a 14 percent increase from the previous marketing year, based on year-to-date export volumes and anticipated April-June loadings. Green bean (arabica and robusta) exports are estimated at 30.63 million bags, whereas soluble coffee exports are estimated at 3.3 million bags. Lower supplies from other producing countries have increased the demand for the Brazilian product, especially for washed coffee. Brazil represents approximately 37 percent of total world exports. According to the March 2011 Coffee Market Report International released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), total world coffee consumption for 2010 is estimated at 134 million bags, up 3.1 million bags or a 2.4 percent growth relative to 2009. The table below shows green coffee bean (NCM 0901.11.10), soluble coffee (NCM 2101.11.10) and roasted coffee exports (NCM 0901.21.00) by country of destination, according to SECEX, for CY 2010, MY 2009/10 and 2010/11 (July-March). Brazilian Green Coffee Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 0901.11.10, MT,US$ 000 FOB) CY 2010 1/ MY 2009 /10 2/ MY 2010 / 11 2/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Germany 385,773 1,136,148 277,131 687,940 317,791 1,089,512 U.S.A. 363,443 1,061,555 231,599 565,662 307,147 1,053,497 Italy 165,134 496,842 112,941 293,997 140,430 504,303 Belgium 122,605 380,917 89,648 230,117 106,036 386,346 Japan 123,769 389,759 79,606 221,865 99,380 354,883 Spain 52,397 152,500 35,388 86,678 42,629 142,659 Slovenia 45,481 105,272 29,104 59,697 37,819 93,893 France 40,927 114,588 27,062 65,625 32,131 104,247 Switzerland 38,141 106,507 30,197 74,735 28,725 93,886 Syria 24,947 57,197 20,388 40,015 25,372 63,849 Others 428,348 1,180,343 303,943 724,270 337,872 1,086,506 Total 1,790,967 5,181,628 1,237,008 3,050,601 1,475,332 4,973,580 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may note add due to rounding 1/Jan - Dec - 2/Jul - Mar Brazilian Roasted Coffee Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 0901.21.00, MT, US$ 000 FOB) CY 2010 1/ MY 2009/10 2/ MY 2010/11 2/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value U.S.A. 1,981 10,643 1,489 9,595 1,206 7,568 Italy 894 3,688 654 2,893 751 3,266 Japan 199 1,104 144 789 164 891 Bolivia 173 724 99 396 132 573 Chile 126 760 66 396 127 818 Argentina 242 1,741 174 1,081 125 940 Paraguay 82 340 42 139 69 309 Uruguay 65 260 58 227 59 234 France 48 310 18 191 29 194 Libya 26 287 0 2 26 287 Others 385 1,967 786 3,532 149 1,082 Total 4,222 21,826 3,530 19,242 2,838 16,163 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding 1/Jan - Dec 2/Jul - Mar Brazilian Soluble Coffee Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 2101.11.10 MT, US$ 000 FOB) CY 2010 1/ MY 2009/10 2/ MY 2010/11 2/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value U.S.A. 13,696 71,024 8,913 48,122 10,288 54,648 Russia 8,900 68,854 6,960 54,018 6,836 55,142 Argentina 5,644 28,538 3,375 17,835 4,019 20,775 Ukraine 5,610 44,529 3,823 34,401 3,737 29,335 Japan 3,764 27,190 2,919 21,788 2,958 21,016 Germany 2,935 19,135 2,028 10,786 2,299 17,252 Canada 2,292 18,808 1,796 15,113 1,947 16,805 Hungry 1,461 8,542 441 2,714 1,629 9,679 Indonesia 1,772 10,767 1,178 6,921 1,587 10,392 United Kingdom 3,163 21,404 3,081 23,166 1,548 10,774 Others 27,920 216,248 16,547 128,178 21,316 171,587 Total 77,156 535,038 51,060 363,041 58,166 417,405 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding 1/Jan - Dec - 2/Jul-Mar The tables below include data on monthly coffee exports (quantity and value) for MY 2010/11 (July-March), as reported by Brazilian Green Coffee Association (CECAFE) and the Brazilian Soluble Coffee Association (ABICS). Total coffee exports during the July 2010 - March 2011 period were 26.85 million bags, up 4.05 million bags relative to the same period during MY 2009/10 (22.8 million bags). Preliminary data show that coffee export registrations for April 2011 were 2.52 million bags while cumulative green coffee export shipments for April 2011 are 2.35 million bags through April 29. Brazilian Monthly Coffee Exports for MY 2010/11 (Thousand 60-kg bag, green equivalent). Month Conillon Arabica Roasted Total Green Soluble Total Jul-10 161.20 2,026.29 4.05 2,191.54 270.65 2,462.20 Aug-10 133.85 2,465.95 4.68 2,604.48 209.00 2,813.48 Sep-10 157.03 2,828.39 4.81 2,990.23 289.87 3,280.10 Oct-10 114.96 3,076.67 5.78 3,197.41 293.14 3,490.55 Nov-10 96.50 2,830.34 5.01 2,931.85 243.62 3,175.47 Dec-10 74.49 3,055.29 5.26 3,135.04 288.41 3,423.45 Jan-11 65.60 2,525.03 4.71 2,595.34 197.34 2,792.68 Feb-11 53.11 2,415.65 4.62 2,473.37 242.52 2,715.90 Mar-11 183.42 2,185.40 4.52 2,373.35 320.37 2,693.72 Cumulative 1,040.15 23,409.01 43.46 24,492.62 2,354.92 26,847.54 Source: CECAFE and ABICS. Brazilian Monthly Coffee Exports for MY 2010/11 (US$ 1,000,000). Month Conillon Arabica Roasted Total Green Soluble Total Jul-10 16.05 335.15 0.96 352.15 42.07 394.23 Aug-10 14.02 431.58 1.30 446.90 34.21 481.10 Sep-10 16.34 516.72 1.15 534.21 45.68 579.89 Oct-10 12.45 592.18 1.88 606.51 49.17 655.68 Nov-10 10.42 566.69 1.58 578.69 41.70 620.38 Dec-10 8.17 642.41 1.72 652.30 48.19 700.49 Jan-11 7.54 553.50 1.44 562.49 33.02 595.51 Feb-11 6.58 566.88 1.48 574.93 43.14 618.08 Mar-11 25.10 563.99 1.45 590.55 57.04 647.58 Cumulative 116.67 4,769.10 12.95 4,898.72 394.21 5,292.93 Source: CECAFE and ABICS. Stocks Total ending stocks in MY 2011/12 are forecast at 4.94 million bags, up 1.1 million bags relatively to MY 2010/11. Coffee stocks held by MAPA/DECAF (Funcafe stocks) are estimated at approximately 500,000 bags, whereas CONAB coffee stocks in March 31 are reported at 1.65 million bags. CONAB?s 2011 privately-owned stocks survey has not been released yet. The survey includes coffee stocks held by growers, coffee cooperatives; exporters, roasters and the soluble industry on March 31st. The results from the CONAB?s 2010 stocks survey were just recently released and show that coffee stocks held by the private sector on March 31, 2010 were 8.9 million bags, down 5.7 million bags from the previous year. The table below shows the results of the last three private stock surveys released by CONAB. Brazilian Private Coffee Carry-Over Stocks (60-kg Bags) Mar 31, 2008 - 2007 Mar 31, 2009 - 2008 Mar 31, 2010 - 2009 crop crop crop Arabica Conillon Arabica Conillon Arabica Conillon Industry 786,950 264,533 796,509 276,387 739,812 172,121 Roasters 721,712 138,250 Soluble 18,100 33,871 Exporters 3,169,605 318,125 3,271,167 134,435 1,931,899 194,619 Cooperatives 4,087,053 104,445 5,671,240 72,884 3,042,082 154,843 Others 3,446,254 326,067 4,265,863 167,913 2,531,543 177,069 Total 11,489,862 1,013,170 14,004,779 651,619 8,245,336 698,652 Grand Total 12,503,032 14,656,398 8,943,988 Source: CONAB, Annual Carry Over Stock Surveys - Reference Month = March 31st. Policy In March 2011, the National Monetary Council (CMN) approved a special credit line of R$ 300 million from the Coffee Defense Fund (Funcafe) to refinance outstanding loans owed by producers. Each eligible producer will be able to contract up to R$ 200,000 at an interest rate 6.75 percent per year. On the other hand, the solid prices of the product since last year have led many coffee growers to pay their financing in advance. According to MAPA, from January 2010 to early March 2011, R$ 311 million was paid back to the Funcafe funds. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics Coffee, Green Brazil 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 2010 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 2,395 2,395 2,409 2,409 2,410 Area Harvested 2,151 2,151 2,175 2,175 2,150 Bearing Trees 5,725 5,725 5,820 5,820 5,760 Non-Bearing Trees 873 873 815 815 835 Total Tree 6,598 6,598 6,635 6,635 6,595 Population Beginning Stocks 6,576 6,576 2,846 2,836 3,836 Arabica Production 33,000 33,000 41,800 41,800 34,700 Robusta Production 11,800 11,800 12,700 12,700 14,500 Other Production 0 0 0 0 0 Total Production 44,800 44,800 54,500 54,500 49,200 Bean Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Roast & Ground 0 0 0 0 0 Imports Soluble Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 51,376 51,376 57,346 57,336 53,036 Bean Exports 26,580 26,580 28,600 30,630 24,930 Rst-Grnd Exp. 80 80 100 70 70 Soluble Exports 3,120 3,120 3,300 3,300 3,000 Total Exports 29,780 29,780 32,000 34,000 28,000 Rst,Ground Dom. 17,730 17,720 18,470 18,470 19,020 Consum Soluble Dom. Cons. 1,020 1,040 1,030 1,030 1,080 Domestic Use 18,750 18,760 19,500 19,500 20,100 Ending Stocks 2,846 2,836 5,846 3,836 4,936 Total Distribution 51,376 51,376 57,346 57,336 53,036 1000 HA, MILLION TREES, 1000 60 KG BAGS Exchange Rate Exchange Rate (R$/US$1.00 - official rate, last day of period) Month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 January 2.62 2.22 2.12 1.76 2.32 1.87 1.67 February 2.60 2.14 2.12 1.68 2.38 1.81 1.66 March 2.67 2.17 2.05 1.75 2.25 1.78 1.62 April 2.53 2.09 2.03 1.69 2.18 1.73 1.57 May 2.40 2.30 1.93 1.63 1.97 1.82 1.61 June 2.35 2.16 1.93 1.64 1.95 1.80 July 2.39 2.18 1.88 1.57 1.87 1.76 August 2.36 2.14 1.96 1.63 1.88 1.76 September 2.22 2.17 1.84 1.92 1.78 1.69 October 2.25 2.14 1.74 2.12 1.74 1.70 November 1/ 2.21 2.17 1.78 2.33 1.75 1.71 December 2.26 2.14 1.77 2.34 1.74 1.66 Source : Gazeta Mercantil and BACEN (as of October 2006). May 2011 refers to May 06.
Posted: 28 May 2011, last updated 30 May 2011

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