Biofuels Annual 2011

An Expert's View about Energy in Brazil

Last updated: 19 Aug 2011

This report updates the Brazilian ethanol and biodiesel policies and programs described in the Biofuels Annual report from 2010 (BR10006) and provides production, supply and demand estimates and forecasts for 2011 and 2012, respectively.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 7/27/2011 GAIN Report Number: BR110013 Brazil Biofuels Annual 2011 Approved By: Jeff Zimmerman, Agricultural Attaché Office of Agricultural Affairs, Brasilia Prepared By: Sergio Barros, Agricultural Specialist Agricultural Trade Office, Sao Paulo Report Highlights: This report updates the Brazilian ethanol and biodiesel policies and programs described in the Biofuels Annual report from 2010 (BR10006) and provides production, supply and demand estimates and forecasts for 2011 and 2012, respectively. Post: Sao Paulo ATO 1. Executive Summary The present report includes the following sections: (1) Executive Summary; (2) Policy and Programs; (3) Conventional Bioethanol; (4) Conventional Biodiesel; (5) Advanced Biofuels; and, (6) Notes on Statistical Data. 1.1. Brazil?s Political Division The map below shows the Brazilian political division in regions and states. 2. Policy and Programs 2.1. Government Support Programs for Bioethanol 2.1.1. ?Regional Producer Subsidy? North-Northeast sugarcane growers are eligible for the ?Regional Producer Subsidy? in the amount of R$ 5.00 per metric ton of sugarcane up to 10,000 metric tons. The subsidy is given to balance the cost of the production differential between the Central South and the Northeast mills. 2.1.2. Ethanol use mandate On April 28th, 2011, President Dilma Rouseff signed Provisional Measure (Medida Provisoria ? MP) #532 which lowers from 20 to 18 percent the minimum volume of ethanol required to blend with gasoline. The new blend range varies from 18 and 25 percent. The current blend has been set at the cap (25 percent) since May 1, 2010. However, the Government of Brazil (GOB) has studied the possibility to reduce it to 18 percent due to the expected shortage in ethanol supply, a consequence of the drop in the size of the sugarcane crop. 2.1.3. Tax incentives for ethanol A. Tax incentives for ethanol-flex fuel vehicles Tax incentives play an important role in supporting ethanol consumption since the introduction of flex cars. The table below shows the value of IPI, PIS/COFINS (Contribution to the Social Integration Program/Contribution for Financing Social Security) and ICMS (State tax for services and good circulation) for different categories of vehicles as reported by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA). Note that taxes on flex cars are lower than taxes on gasoline powered cars, especially with regard to the Tax on Industrialized Products (IPI). ANFAVEA also reports that the tax burden on light vehicles as a share of the total price for retail (price for final consumers) are usually lower for ethanol/flex-fuel vehicles compared to gasoline vehicles. The tax burden for 1,001 to 2,000 cylinder ethanol/flex-fuel vehicles are 29.2 percent, whereas it is 30.4 percent for gasoline units. The differential for more powerful cars, e.g., over 2,001 cylinders, is even higher: 33.1 percent for ethanol/flex engines as opposed to 36.4 percent for gasoline engines. Taxes Applied to Ethanol, Flex-Fuel and Gasoline Vehicles Year Taxes 1000 cc 1001-2000 cc Over 2000 cc Gas 1/ th/Flex Gas 1/ Eth/Flex /Eth/Flex Gas 1/ E IPI 7 13 11 25 18 2004 to 2007 ICMS 12 12 12 12 12 PIS/COFINS 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 % Share 27.1 30.4 29.2 36.4 33.1 IPI 0 6.5 5.5 25 18 2008 ICMS 12 12 12 12 12 PIS/COFINS 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 % Share 22.2 26.4 25.8 36.4 33.1 IPI 5/3* 11 7.5 25 18 2009 ICMS 12 12 12 12 12 PIS/COFINS 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 % Share 25.7/24.4* 29.2 27.1 36.4 33.1 IPI 7/3* 13 7.8 25 18 ICMS 12 12 12 12 12 January thru March 2010 PIS/COFINS 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 % Share 27.1/24.4* 30 27.1 36.4 33.1 IPI 7 13 11 25 18 A ICMS 12 12 12 12 12 s of April 2010 and 2011 PIS/COFINS 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 % Share 27.1 30.4 29.2 36.4 33.1 Source: National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA) 1/ Gas = Gasoline. *The tax of 3% refers to flex fuel cars B. Tax incentives for ethanol fuel The biggest incentives for ethanol, however, are the result of favorable tax treatment at the pump. The GoB provides preferential treatment for ethanol under both its CIDES and PIS/COFINS programs. CIDE (Contribution for Intervention in Economic Domain) funds raised via this fuel federal tax are used to finance infrastructure works and maintenance of the transportation system, as well as finance environmental projects related to the oil and natural gas industry and; to pay subsidies, if determined by specific legislation, to ethanol, natural gas and oil derivates prices or distribution. CIDE for gasoline remains unchanged at R$ 0.23/liter since May 1, 2010. Note that for ethanol, while CIDE is an applicable tax, it has been fixed at zero since May 2004. PIS/COFINS (Contribution to the Social Integration Program/Contribution for Financing Social Security) federal taxes are charged together. For gasoline, PIS/COFINS remains unchanged at a cumulative fixed assessment of 9.25 % charged to the manufacturer upon sale to distributors. PIS/CONFINS FOR ethanol have also remained unchanged at R$ 0.12/liter (R$ 0.048/liter on producers and R$ 0.072/liter on distributors). At the state level, there are different tax regimes for the ICMS - tax for services and goods circulation. The maps below update the percentages applied by different states. ICMS charged on ethanol varies from 12 to 27 percent, with most states charging 25 percent. ICMS for gasoline varies from 25 to 31 percent. 2.1.4. Credit Lines The ?2011/12 Crop Plan? released in mid-June by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply created a credit line to finance new sugarcane fields or the renewal of existing ones. Each individual grower can borrow up to R$ 1 million at 6.75 percent per year interest rate, an 18 month grace period and 5 year payback deadline. The National Bank for Social and Economic Development (BNDES) provides specific credit lines to fund investments on sugarcane production, expansion of industrial capacity for sugar and ethanol, cogeneration, logistics and multimodal transportation. They are expected to account for R$ 6 to 6.5 billion in 2011, a 14 to 21 percent drop compared to 2010 (R$ 7.6 billion). The interest rate applied has increased to 8.7 percent per year since April 1, 2011, as opposed to 5.5-6.5 percent before. Note that a significant part of the funds released both in 2010 and 2011 are related to old projects, some approved in 2008, given that new investments in the sector are scarce. No official credit line to support ethanol storage has been announced yet. 2.1.5. Ethanol Import Tariff In April 23, 2010, the GOB temporarily eliminated the ethanol import tariff. The temporarily elimination will be in effect until December 31, 2011. The tariff will return to 20 percent as of January 1, 2012, if no further action is taken by GOB. 2.1.6. ANP as the regulatory Agency In addition to reducing from 20 to 18 percent the minimum volume of ethanol required to blend with gasoline, MP #532 of April 28th, 2011, changes the status of ethanol from that of agri- business commodity to national strategic energy resource. The measure delegates greater authority to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) to regulate the ethanol supply chain. ANP will now expand beyond its traditional role of monitoring ethanol distribution once the product left the mill headed to the pump; the agency will oversee ethanol production inside mills ? until recently the mandate of the Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA). Several measures are currently under discussion and are likely to be adopted by ANP in the near future, including: (1) the introduction of 2-year contracts between ethanol suppliers and fuel distributors and, (2) a mandatory 8 percent minimum carryover stocks on March 1 to be held by producers to guarantee ethanol supply. If domestic supply is not available at the time, that will force ethanol producers to import the product to comply with the measure. 2.2. Government Support Programs for Biodiesel 2.2.1. Biodiesel use mandate In spite of the industry lobby to increase the biodiesel mandate to 10 percent (B10), e.g., 10 percent of biodiesel blended to mineral diesel, to accommodate the current industrial overcapacity; no changes have been made to the mandate set at 5 percent (B5) since January 2010. The GOB advocates that an increase in the percentage of biodiesel added to mineral diesel could promote an increase in prices at the pump. 2.2.2. Tax Incentives In order to encourage the production of biodiesel and to promote social inclusion, the GoB set federal tax exemptions and incentives, according to the nature of the raw material, size of producer and region of production. The table below shows the current values compared to mineral diesel. Federal Taxes for Biodiesel and Mineral Diesel (R$/m3) Fuel Biodiesel B100 Diesel Producer Type Family Agriculture (PRONAF) All Others No North, rth, Northeast Region & Semi-Arid theast & All Oth Norers Zones Semi-Arid All Others Zones Palm Oil or Palm Oil or Feedstock Any Castor Oil Castor Oil PIS/PASEP 0.00 12.29 27.03 31.75 82.20 COFINS 0.00 54.46 124.47 146.20 379.30 Source: Brazilian Government 2.2.3. Biodiesel Stocks No changes have been made to the legislation. Current regulations state that strategic stocks held by Petrobras and Refap should maintain, at all times, at least one month of domestic consumption. 2.2.4. Biodiesel Import Tariff According to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade, the import tariff applied to biodiesel (NCM 3824.90.29) is set at 14 percent. 2.3. Bioethanol and Biodiesel in the Current Brazilian Energy Matrix Brazil is a global leader in the use of renewable fuels. Indeed, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) has set the increase of biofuels? share in the Brazilian energy matrix as one of the policy directives for the sector. The results of the National Energy Balance (BEN-2011) reporting the Brazilian supply and demand of energy for 2010 are not available yet. In June 2011, the Ministry of Mines and Energy released the Energy Expansion Decennial Plan 2011/2020 (PDE-2020) for public consultation. According to the plan, the share of renewable sources (hydroelectric, ethanol, biomass, etc.) in the Brazilian energy matrix is expected to increase to 46.3 percent in 2020, up 1.5 points compared to 44.8 percent in 2010. As shown in the graphs below, the decrease of the hydroelectric, log wood and vegetal coal shares will be offset mainly by the increase in the ethanol supply. The study also projects that ethanol demand for both the domestic market and exports should increase to 73 billion liters in 2020. Share of Different Energy Sources in the Energy Supply Matrix Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy, 2011 2.4. Environmental Sustainability Programs 2.4.1. The Climate Change National and State Policies Federal Law 12,187/2009 of December, 2009 sets the National Climate Change Policy (Politica Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima ? PNMC) defining broad objectives to reduce gas emissions. According to PNMC, Brazil will voluntarily take actions to reduce GHG and other pollutant emissions between 36.1 and 38.9 percent by 2020 from 2010 values. The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) established in June 2010, the Low Carbon Agriculture program (ABC). The initiative aims to combine food production and bioenergy in reducing greenhouse gases. The ABC program encourages technological processes that neutralize or minimize the effects of greenhouse gases in the field, to be adopted by farmers in the coming years. The ABC program included in the 2011/2012 Crop Plan released by MAPA in mid-June 2011 will provide $ 3.15 billion to finance techniques that ensure efficiency in the field, with a positive balance between sequestration and emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). Resources are guaranteed to farmers and cooperatives, limited funding of $ 1 million per recipient. The credit will be financed with an interest rate of 5.5% per year and repayment term of 12 years. One of the major proposals of the ABC program relates to the recovery of degraded pastures. The goal is to convert 15 million hectares of degraded areas into productive land, including sugarcane fields, thus reducing between 83 and 104 million tons of CO2 equivalent. 2.4.2. Land Use Policies: Sugarcane Agri-ecological Zoning (?ZAE Cana?) In September 2009, MAPA launched the Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning (ZAE Cana) to promote sustainable sugarcane growth and development, while preserving the environment. ZAE Cana is a thorough study of all Brazilian geographical regions, taking into accounts not only soil and weather patterns, but also environmental, economic and social aspects, to guide the sustainable development of the industry. In spite of the ongoing discussion of the ZAE Cana at the Congress, the Presidential Decree of 2009 sets that public financing for the sector must respect the aforementioned zoning. The following map shows the geographical distribution of the potential land for sugarcane expansion, as well as the exclusion of the Brazilian native biomes. In addition to the Brazilian ZAE-Sugarcane, the state of Sao Paulo, major sugarcane grower in Brazil has set also set the Sao Paulo Agri-Environmental Zoning in September 2008 for the suga- ethanol sector defining the state in four different areas suitable and not suitable for sugarcane production based on sound and restrictive land use variables. 2.4.3. Legislation on Sugarcane Burning No changes have been made with regard to the sugarcane burning legislation. According to the federal decree 2,661 from July 1998, by 2018, sugarcane burning will be prohibited in areas where mechanization is possible (slope lower than 12 percent). The decree does not have a say on hilly non-mechanized areas (slopes over 12 percent). In July 2007, the Sao Paulo State Secretariats of Environment and Agriculture and Supply and the Sugar and Ethanol Millers Association (UNICA) signed a cooperation protocol called ?Agri- Enviromental Protocol? committing themselves to eliminate the burning by 2014 and 2017 for mechanized and non-mechanized areas, respectively. 2.5. Social/Economic Sustainability Programs 2.5.1. Bioethanol The project RenovAção, led by the Sugar and Alcohol Millers Association of Sao Paulo (UNICA), provides professional training to sugarcane cutters, therefore improving their skills and abilities to perform more complex functions. RenovAcao has already assisted 3,500 people in over 60 sugar- ethanol mills. The National Commitment to improve labor conditions in the sugarcane sector was signed by the GOB and workers' organizations and entrepreneurs of the sugarcane industry in June 2009. The commitment is the result of negotiations to meet the challenge of improving the living of those working on manual cultivation and harvesting of cane sugar, including best practices on labor and promotion and reintegration of unemployed workers by occupational advancement of mechanized harvesting. 2.5.2. Biodiesel ?Social Fuel Stamp? No changes have been made to the biodiesel ?Social Fuel Stamp?, a mechanism created by the government to provide incentives for poorer farmers (family farmers) in disadvantaged areas. Biodiesel producers with the ?Social Fuel Stamp? are eligible for tax incentives as described in Section 2.2.2 ? Tax incentives, better credit terms, and classification as a socially friendly company. 3. Conventional Bioethanol Conventional bioethanol is defined as first generation ethanol derived from sugars and starches used to transport fuels as a substitute for fossil fuels. Bioethanol is an alcohol made by fermenting the sugar components of plant materials such as corn and wheat starch, sugarcane, sugarbeet, sorghum, and cassava. 3.1. Brazilian Bioethanol Production, Supply and Demand (PS&D) Table Sugarcane remains the exclusive source of feedstock for bioethanol production in Brazil. The tables below show the Brazilian bioethanol supply and demand (PS&D) spreadsheets for ?All Uses? and ?Fuel Use Only? for calendar years 2006 through 2012. Several remarks must be made in order to build the aforementioned tables - see Notes on Statistical Data ? Bioethanol (Section 6.1.). ATO/Sao Paulo has historically reported all figures related to the sugar-ethanol industry in marketing years (MY) and, therefore, made all necessary adjustments to convert from marketing to calendar years. The Brazilian official marketing year for sugarcane, sugar and ethanol production, as determined by the Brazilian government, remains May-April for the center-southern producing states, although sugarcane crushing has started as early as late March in the past couple of years. The official marketing year for the North-Northeast is September-August. Note: no Brazilian authority official or trade source maintains production figures on use ?for fuel? or ?other uses?. All bioethanol production figures are solely reported as hydrous and anhydrous volumes. According to post contacts, ethanol plants produce different specifications of hydrous and/or anhydrous, but make no distinction between fuel/other uses. The use for fuels/other uses (industrial, refined or neutral) are determined at the consumer level. Total Conventional Bioethanol Production, Supply and Demand All Uses (million liters) CY 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Begin Stocks 2,743 3,373 4,829 5,783 4,048 5,916 7,489 Production 17,782 22,557 27,140 26,105 27,965 24,198 25,500 Advanced 0 0 0 0 Only 0 0 0 Imports 0 4 0 4 76 1,020 770 Fuel 0 0 0 0 74 1,000 750 Other Uses 0 4 0 4 1 20 20 Total Supply 20,525 25,934 31,969 31,893 32,089 31,134 33,759 Exports 3,429 3,533 5,124 3,296 1,906 1,450 1,850 Fuel 2,445 1,932 3,044 1,118 562 400 500 Other Uses 984 1,600 2,080 2,179 1,344 1,050 1,350 Consumption 13,723 17,573 21,062 24,548 24,267 22,195 25,050 Fuel 12,698 16,203 19,584 22,823 22,162 19,845 22,500 Other Uses 1,025 1,370 1,478 1,725 2,105 2,350 2,550 Ending Stocks 3,373 4,829 5,783 4,048 5,916 7,489 6,859 Production Capacity (Conventional) No. of Bio 352 377 407 426 436 440 443 refineries Capacity 27,500 32,540 38,300 35,600 41,360 42,800 43,250 Capacity Use (%) 64.7% 69.3% 70.9% 73.3% 67.6% 56.5% 59.0% Production Capacity (Advanced) No. of Bio 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 refineries Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capacity Use (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Co-Product Production - Conventional (1,000 MT) Product X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feedstock Use - Conventional (1,000 MT) 215,19 269,64 335,18 346,07 342,56 296,41 312,37 Sugarcane 6 5 8 0 6 9 5 Fuel 190,88 234,13 291,24 294,31 300,32 254,76 264,60 2 8 2 6 1 9 0 Other Uses 24,314 35,507 43,946 51,754 42,245 41,650 47,775 Feedstock Use - Advanced (1,000 MT) Feedstock A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: Prepared by ATO/Sao Paulo based on MAPA, SECEX, Datagro, ANP, UNICA and industry sources. Numbers for 2011 and 2012 are projections. Ethanol - Conventional and Advanced Fuels (million liters) CY 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Beginning Stocks 2,386 3,016 4,468 5,422 3,683 5,549 7,101 Production 15,773 19,587 23,582 22,201 24,516 20,798 21,600 Advanced 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Only Imports 0 0 0 0 74 1,000 750 Exports 2,445 1,932 3,044 1,118 562 400 500 Consumption 12,698 16,203 19,584 22,823 22,162 19,845 22,500 Ending Stocks 3,016 4,468 5,422 3,683 5,549 7,101 6,451 Production Capacity (Conventional Fuel) No. of Biorefineries 352 377 407 426 436 440 443 Capacity 24,393 28,255 33,279 30,276 36,260 36,786 36,635 Capacity Use (%) 64.7% 69.3% 70.9% 73.3% 67.6% 56.5% 59.0% Production Capacity (Advanced) No. of Biorefineries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capacity Use (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Co-Product Production - Conventional (1,000 MT) Product X -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Feedstock Use - Conventional (1,000 MT) 190,88 234,13 291,24 294,31 300,32 254,76 264,60 Sugarcane 2 8 2 6 1 9 0 Feedstock Use - Advanced (1,000 MT) Feedstock A -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Source: Prepared by ATO/Sao Paulo based on the "Bioethanol Production, Supply and Demand - All Uses" table. Numbers for 2011 and 2012 are projections. 3.2. Production A. Production Estimates Post projections are based on industry sources. To be in accordance with the actual feedstock production cycle, the following narrative describes sugarcane and ethanol production in marketing years (MY). Note that all necessary adjustments were made to covert production figures from MY to calendar years. ATO/Sao Paulo estimates the MY 2011/12 (May-April) sugarcane crop at 595 million metric tons, down 36 million tons from previous estimate. Sugarcane production in the center-south (CS) has been adjusted to 530 mmt, down 7 percent from the previous estimate, according to updated industry information. In addition to the higher than average age of the fields and the lower volume of cane not harvested from the previous year (?cana bisada?), the dry weather during April-August 2010 and more recently in May 2011 has negatively affected stock development. In late June frost in most southern states like Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul has also promoted damages in the fields. Moreover, the blossoming of the sugarcane induced by specific weather patterns in Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Goias has also supported losses given that it diverts the plant energy towards vegetative development as opposed to sugar concentration. Sugarcane production in the NNE should contribute 65 mmt, up 3 mmt compared to previous figure. Total sucrose (total reducing sugar, TRS) content destined for sugar and ethanol production for MY 2011/12 is forecast at 47 and 53 percent, respectively, as opposed to 45.95 and 54.05 percent, respectively for MY 2010/11. Sugar-ethanol mills are expected to increase sugar production relative to the previous crop due to continued steady demand and strong sugar prices in the international markets. In spite of the steady increase in the flex-fuel vehicle (FFV) fleet, hydrous ethanol production is likely to be limited by the size of the crop, high prices at the pump, and the trend towards sugar production to meet strong international demand. It is still too early to project MY 2012/13 production figures. More precise numbers should be available in the first quarter of 2011 with the development of feedstock from new sugarcane plantings and recovery from current harvested areas; e.g., sugarcane from second, third, fourth, fifth and older cuts; as well as projections for sugar and ethanol demand both the domestic and international markets. The current production forecast is based on the assumption that regular weather conditions will prevail throughout the sugarcane production cycle. Post projects sugarcane production for MY 2012/13 at 620 mmt, a four percent increase vis-à-vis the current crop, assuming that the CS will recover from lower agricultural yields projected for the current crop. Sugar prices in the international markets are expected to remain attractive and the domestic demand for ethanol should continue limited by the price relationship between ethanol and gasoline at the pump (see section 3.3 Consumption below). The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO)/Sao Paulo projects the 2012 total bioethanol production at 25.5 billion liters, up 5 percent from the 2011 estimate (24.2 billion liters). Ethanol for fuels production is forecast at 21.6 billion liters for 2012, a 1.05 billion liters increase vis-à-vis 2011 (20.55 billion liters). UNICA has made a long-term projection for sugarcane and ethanol production in Brazil. According to the association, sugarcane production projections are 778 and 974 million metric tons for MY 2015/16 and 2020/21, respectively. B. Industrial Capacity Total industrial capacity for sugarcane crushing in the center-southern sugar-ethanol plants is approximately 3.2 mmt of sugarcane/day. Crushing capacity in the northeastern plants is estimated at 400,000 mmt/day. Thus, Brazilian installed crushing capacity is approximately 3.6 mmt/day. Ethanol installed industrial capacity depends on yearly decisions made by individual plants to produce sugar and/or ethanol. Post contacts report that the industry responds to the theoretical ratio of 40:60 to change from sugar to ethanol production or vice versa from harvest to harvest. Once producing units, adjust their plants to produce a set ratio of sugar/ethanol in a given year, there is much less flexibility to change it during the crushing season. Ethanol production capacity estimated in this report was based on production figures reported by UNICA. Post took the highest ethanol production figure in a given 15-day period, and extrapolated to the entire Center-south crushing season. A similar procedure was followed for Northeast production based on MAPA reports. Sugarcane crushed for ethanol production was calculated based on the actual production breakdown for sugar/ethanol as described in previous Gain reports. On average, one metric ton of sugarcane produces 80.5 liters of ethanol. C. New Investments and Credit 30 30 25 25 19 19 20 15 The graph below shows the evolution of new ethanol (and sugar) plants as of MY 2005/06 as reported by UNICA. UNICA estimates only 4 new plants for 2011/12 and three new plants for 2012/13, due to low investments in greenfield projects. The world financial crisis in October 2008 10 9 led investors to opt for acquiring existing mills instead of investing in new projects. Total number of sugar-ethanol mills in 2011 is estimated at 440 units, where1as 0total operating units for 2011 are projected at 443. According to industry information, the current investment level to build a new plant ranges from US$ 120 to US$ 150 per metric ton of sugarcane for crushing, whereas the investment to expand 4 5 industrial capacity in existing mills varies from US$ 55 to 75 per metric ton of sugarcane. New 3 Ethanol Plants 0 Source: Unica D. Sugarcane and Ethanol Prices received by Producers. Sugarcane prices received by third party suppliers for major producing states are based on a formula that takes into account prices for sugar and ethanol prices both in the domestic and international markets. The State of Sao Paulo Sugarcane, Sugar and Ethanol Growers Council (CONSECANA) was the first to develop this formula for the state of Sao Paulo, major producing state comprising roughly 60 percent of the Brazilian production. The average CONSECANA price for the current crop (MY 2011/12) for the April-June 2011 period is R$ 0.4952 kg of TRS, or R$ 60.66 per ton of sugarcane. CONSECANA reports that the average sugarcane price (April 2010-February 2011) for the state of Sao Paulo for the 2010/11 crop is Reais (R$) 0.3912 per kg of TRS, or R$ 55.24 per ton of sugarcane According to industry sources, sugarcane represents between 60 to 70 percent of the cost of producing ethanol. Current production cost is estimated at R$ 1.05/liter for hydrous ethanol and R$ 1.12/liter for anhydrous ethanol (ROE = US$ 1.00/R$ 1.57). The aforementioned numbers vary according to the efficiency of the plant. The Crystal Sugar and Ethanol Indexes released by the University of Sao Paulo?s College of Agriculture "Luiz de Queiroz" (ESALQ) follow. The Indexes track anhydrous and hydrous ethanol for fuel prices received by producers in the domestic spot market. Note that sharp increase in 2 0 0 5 / 2 2 0 0 0 0 6 6 / 2 2 0 0 0 0 7 7 / 2 2 0 0 0 0 8 8 / 2 2 0 0 0 0 9 9 2 /2 0 0 1 1 0 0 / 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 e 1 2 /2 0 0 1 1 2 2 / 2 0 1 3 e prices for the 2011/12 crop, even during the harvest season, as a consequence of lower availability of the product. Fuel Anhydrous Ethanol Prices: State of São Paulo (R$/000 liters). Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 January 870.69 786.22 873.30 1285.40 1233.20 February 837.39 808.08 860.30 1297.60 1293.10 March 912.93 831.50 744.50 974.60 1596.60 April 1072.57 789.40 697.00 908.40 2375.00 May 883.78 821.50 676.40 839.20 1380.70 June 675.07 787.00 692.80 827.30 1244.60 July 1/ 668.53 873.20 803.78 924.20 1296.30 August 665.58 858.50 820.70 961.90 -- September 660.73 891.20 912.90 1040.20 -- October 664.44 902.20 1086.40 1173.20 -- November 792.90 897.00 1093.80 1185.20 -- December 851.07 880.60 1131.60 1201.80 -- Source: USP/ESALQ/CEPEA. 1/ July 2011 refers to July 04-08. Fuel Hydrous Ethanol Prices: State of São Paulo (R$/000 liters). Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 January 845.36 697.18 781.40 1171.2 1109.40 February 802.87 714.70 777.60 1095.8 1176.10 March 855.05 754.56 656.80 825.2 1421.90 April 940.51 715.60 621.30 799.70 1387.50 May 690.84 697.10 585.22 724.30 1005.90 June 587.86 665.30 606.60 720.30 1113.70 July 1/ 583.99 718.10 710.20 797.90 1134.60 August 581.02 719.30 726.50 835.70 -- September 580.96 749.60 791.40 896.20 -- October 585.48 715.70 935.10 977.70 -- November 716.09 726.40 941.90 1001.00 -- December 751.28 737.70 1000.40 1075.10 -- Source: USP/ESALQ/CEPEA. 1/ July 2011 refers to July 04-08. 3.3. Consumption Brazil remains an important user of ethanol for fuel consumption. Total domestic demand for ethanol for calendar year 2012 is forecast at 25.05 billion liters, up 2.85 billion liters from 2011 consumption (22.195 billion liters), based on likely more attractive ethanol prices at the pump compared to 2011 and the steady sales of flex-fuel vehicles in the market. Total ethanol consumption for use as fuel is estimated at 22.5 billion liters for 2012. Ethanol consumption for other uses is projected at 2.55 billion liters, up 200 million from 2011 due to steady demand from the chemical industries. The size of the Brazilian light vehicle fleet is roughly estimated at 28 million units and pure hydrous ethanol and flex fuel powered vehicles represent together approximately 50 percent of the total fleet. Industry projections report that the share of flex fuel vehicles is likely to reach 86 percent by 2020. The table below shows the sales of FFV and hydrous ethanol powered cars, as reported by the Brazilian Association of Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA). Sales of FFV currently represent over 85 percent of total monthly vehicle sales. Domestic Sales of Alcohol Powered Vehicles (pure alcohol & flex fuel units) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1/ 897,308 1,425,177 2,032,361 2,356,942 2,711,267 2,876,173 1,035,033 Source: National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA) 1/ January-May Note: flex fuel vehicles were introduced in March 2003. The table below illustrates apparent consumption of liquid fuels in Brazil. According to Datagro, fuel ethanol represented approximately 41.51 percent in gasoline equivalent of total Otto cycle fuels consumption in 2010, a sharp decrease relative to 2009 (47.72 percent) due to unattractive ethanol prices at the pump in several Brazilian states during several months of 2010. January-April 2011 figures show that the ethanol share in the total Otto cycle fuels further dropped to 38.27 percent. Indeed, escalated ethanol prices at the pump during 2011 led many consumers to change from ethanol to gasoline. Brazilian Apparent Consumption of Liquid Fuels (000 m3, Natural Gas in trillion Nm3) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3/ Ethanol 16,204 19,962 22,523 21,951 6,249 Anhydrous 6,137 6,233 6,276 7,234 2,804 Hydrous 10,067 13,729 16,247 14,716 3,445 Gasoline "A" 1/ 18,189 18,942 19,133 22,711 8,411 Natural Gas - light vehicles 3 2 2 2 1 Total Consump Otto Cycle 2/ 35,006 38,678 40,621 42,243 13,627 Diesel 41,558 44,764 44,299 49,614 15,714 Total Consump Otto + Diesel 76,564 83,442 84,920 91,857 29,341 Source: Datagro. 1/ Pure gasoline with no ethanol blended. 2/ Consumption estimated in gasoline equivalent. 3/Jan-April. The steady sales of flex-fuel vehicles do not solely guarantee a higher demand for ethanol given that consumers? decisions are driven by the ratio between ethanol and gasoline prices. The 70 percent ratio between ethanol and gasoline prices is the rule of thumb in determining whether flex car owners will choose to fill up with ethanol (price ratio below 70 percent) or gasoline (price ratio above 70 percent). Due to lower availability of ethanol during the the off-season (January-April 2011), gasoline consumption was favored in several Brazilian states, as reported in the tables below, thus reducing ethanol demand. Note that even in June 2011, close to the peak of the crushing season in the center-south, the price ratio in several locations do not encourage consumers to choose ethanol over gasoline. Gasoline and Ethanol Prices in Selected States (average price, R$/liter) Gasoline Ethanol 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan 2.380 2.393 2.477 2.487 1.290 1.312 1.807 1.733 Sao Paulo Feb 2.376 2.398 2.509 2.490 1.257 1.331 1.831 1.765 State Jun 2.385 2.349 2.399 2.675 1.259 1.168 1.274 1.711 Aug 2.394 2.351 2.412 1.264 1.231 1.387 Jan 2.376 2.391 2.475 2.482 1.291 1.312 1.810 1.733 Sao Paulo Feb 2.372 2.396 2.508 2.486 1.264 1.327 1.835 1.766 City Jun 2.383 2.346 2.395 2.680 1.264 1.180 1.274 1.716 Aug 2.393 2.348 2.408 1.270 1.230 1.382 Jan 2.405 2.381 2.489 2.537 1.606 1.611 1.965 1.902 Minas Feb 2.389 2.374 2.509 2.584 1.577 1.623 2.077 1.956 Gerais Jun 2.368 2.326 2.412 2.789 1.568 1.501 1.678 2.069 Aug 2.356 2.361 2.621 1.575 1.564 1.710 Belo Jan 2.369 2.331 2.431 2.499 1.589 1.597 1.926 1.886 Horizonte Feb 2.346 2.329 2.458 2.547 1.554 1.612 2.064 1.938 (MG Jun 2.322 2.282 2.379 2.778 1.547 1.487 1.661 2.087 Capital) Aug 2.315 2.313 2.381 1.571 1.547 1.683 Jan 2.505 2.537 2.641 2.654 1.624 1.685 2.044 2.022 Rio Janeiro Feb 2.501 2.535 2.663 2.663 1.614 1.695 2.104 2.053 State Jun 2.513 2.524 2.613 2.869 1.635 1.588 1.703 2.170 Aug 2.576 2.526 2.598 1.658 1.604 1.718 Jan 2.500 2.534 2.640 2.651 1.614 1.680 2.050 2.025 Rio Janeiro Feb 2.496 2.531 2.660 2.661 1.603 1.692 2.106 2.057 Capital Jun 2.509 2.521 2.611 2.865 1.627 1.579 1.695 2.165 Aug 2.513 2.523 2.595 1.653 1.598 1.713 Jan 2.463 2.538 2.568 2.534 1.792 1.746 2.257 2.103 Porto A Feb 2.326 2.538 2.592 2.552 1.693 1.765 2.335 2.157 legre (RS Cap Jun 2.514 2.419 2.488 2.722 1.731 1.550 1.765 2.180 ital) Aug 2.566 2.577 2.560 1.744 1.765 1.836 G Jan 2.539 2.565 2.654 2.667 1.569 1.581 1.838 1.822 oiania Feb 2.502 2.564 2.655 2.697 1.508 1.581 1.897 1.891 (GO Cap Jun 2.330 2.562 2.304 2.830 1.368 1.483 1.227 1.782 ital) Aug 2.452 2.556 2.384 1.472 1.411 1.347 Jan 2.667 2.388 2.530 2.644 1.829 1.615 1.909 1.871 Fortaleza Feb 2.655 2.533 2.530 2.647 1.814 1.747 2.013 1.944 (CE Cap Jun 2.439 2.363 2.663 2.688 1.726 1.671 1.807 2.029 ital) Aug 2.589 2.575 2.645 1.885 1.768 1.772 Source: Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels National Agency (ANP). Ratio Ethanol/Gasoline Prices 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan 54% 55% 73% 70% Sao Paulo Feb 53% 56% 73% 71% Jun 53% 50% 53% 64% Aug 53% 52% 58% Jan 54% 55% 73% 70% Sao Feb 53% 55% 73% 71% Paulo Jun 53% 50% 53% 64% Aug 53% 52% 57% Jan 67% 68% 79% 75% M Feb 66% 68% 83% 76% inas Gerais Jun 66% 65% 70% 74% Aug 67% 66% 65% Jan 67% 69% 79% 75% Be Feb 66% 69% 84% 76% lo Horizonte Jun 67% 65% 70% 75% Aug 68% 67% 71% Jan 65% 66% 77% 76% Rio Feb 65% 67% 79% 77% Janeiro Jun 65% 63% 65% 76% Aug 64% 63% 66% Jan 65% 66% 78% 76% Rio de Feb 64% 67% 79% 77% Janeiro Jun 65% 63% 65% 76% Aug 66% 63% 66% Jan 73% 69% 88% 83% Porto A Feb 73% 70% 90% 85% legre Jun 69% 64% 71% 80% Aug 68% 68% 72% Jan 62% 62% 69% 68% Goian Feb 60% 62% 71% 70% ia Jun 59% 58% 53% 63% Aug 60% 55% 57% Jan 69% 68% 75% 71% Forta Feb 68% 69% 80% 73% leza Jun 71% 71% 68% 75% Aug 73% 69% 67% Source: Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels National Agency (ANP). Gray Area means gasoline prices more attractive than ethanol Fuel consumption in Brazil, as reported by the Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels National Agency (ANP), follows. The figures take into account the product sales by distributors and do not include illegal sales, which were common in the past for hydrous ethanol due to tax differentiation between both types of ethanol. As a result of some measures taken by ANP to avoid tax evasion, figures as of 2008 better reflect total hydrous ethanol consumption. Brazilian Fuel Consumption Matrix (000 m3) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1/ Diesel 41,558 44,764 44,298 49,239 20,144 Gasoline C** 24,325 25,175 25,409 29,844 13,974 Hydrous Ethanol 9,367 13,290 16,471 15,074 4,277 Source: ANP ** Gasoline C includes 20-25 % of anhydrous ethanol. 1/ 2011 refers to January-May. 3.4. Trade A. Exports Brazilian total ethanol exports for 2011 are forecast at 1.45 billion liters, a 455 million liters drop compared to 2010, mostly due to expected lower product availability and the industry commitment to supply the domestic market. Total fuel ethanol exports are estimated at 400 million liters, down 162 million liters from the previous year. Ethanol exports in 2012 are forecast at 1.85 billion liters based on the likely recovery of the sugarcane fields for the next crop. The tables below show ethanol exports (NCM 2207.10.00 and 2207.20.10) for 2010 and 2011 (January-June), as reported by the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX). Brazilian Ethanol Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 2207.10.00, 000 liters, MT, US$ 000 FOB) CY 2010 CY 2011 1/ Country Volume Quantity Value Volume Quantity Value South Korea 375,309 303,225 188,051 121,006 97,776 75,821 U.S.A. 313,394 247,948 185,992 183,509 145,087 143,997 Japan 261,672 211,016 131,178 98,508 79,246 65,258 Netherlands 238,943 191,902 121,891 33,018 26,685 21,647 United Kingdom 160,336 126,477 94,431 0 0 0 Jamaica 138,622 112,068 65,793 11,833 9,564 7,280 Nigeria 80,123 64,775 39,548 24,299 19,648 16,168 India 58,603 47,375 27,717 0 0 0 Switzerland 52,158 42,029 29,722 9,341 7,520 5,309 Mexico 35,100 28,213 19,960 0 0 0 Others 184,284 148,003 108,931 63,957 51,685 41,072 Total 1,898,544 1,523,032 1,013,213 545,471 437,211 376,552 Source : Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) 1/Jan-Jun. Brazilian Ethanol Exports by Country of Destination (NCM 2207.20.10, liters, kg, US$ FOB) CY 2010 CY 2011 1/ Volum Quantit Valu Valu Country Volume Quantity Value e y e e Argentina 1,334,20 1,072,25 788,071 0 0 0 0 8 1 Cameroon 100,000 80,510 98,852 0 0 0 0 Uruguay 75,000 61,050 75,000 0 0 0 0 Ivory Coast 40,000 32,204 37,866 0 0 0 0 Netherland s 44,413 34,130 31,410 0 0 0 0 China 23,716 19,170 11,905 0 0 0 0 Paraguay 3,365 3,915 4,778 6 2 2 23 Japan 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 Angola 0 0 0 420 446 552 1,206 Italy 0 0 0 50 37 46 246 1,620,70 1,303,23 1,047,88 Total 2 1 3 476 485 600 1,475 Source : Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) 1/ Jan-Jun. B. Imports Brazilian total ethanol imports for 2011 are forecast at 1.02 billion liters, almost exclusively for fuel use, due to the shortage in the domestic supply of ethanol. Ethanol imports for 2012 are projected at 770 million liters. The tables below show ethanol imports (NCM 2207.10.00 and 2207.20.10) for 2010 and 2011 (January-June), as reported by the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX). Brazilian Ethanol Imports by Country of Origin (NCM 2207.10.00, liters, kg, US$ FOB) CY 2010 CY 2011 1/ Country Volume Quantity Value Volume Quantity Value U.S.A. 20,763,395 16,386,848 12,126,396 27,762,738 22,440,621 24,027,259 Spain 994,643 784,972 152,563 8,297,305 6,706,712 4,451,808 Jamaica 213,524 210,780 714,988 47,965 38,770 112,244 Argentina 149,971 120,682 140,972 0 0 0 Germany 14,749 24,441 342,988 17,013 13,752 288,120 Guyana 19,680 19,422 37,773 0 0 0 Barbados 21,899 18,817 30,452 45,020 36,390 59,030 Poland 18,660 18,660 33,448 0 0 0 Mexico 8,657 7,523 46,966 469 379 2,600 Italy 7,387 5,726 32,799 4,876 3,941 25,770 Others 30,542 632 10,557 31,939,541 25,816,731 27,848,324 Total 22,243,107 17,598,503 13,669,902 68,114,928 55,057,296 56,815,155 Source : Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) 1/ Jan-Jun Brazilian Ethanol Imports by Country of Origin (NCM 2207.20.10, liters, kg, US$ FOB) CY 2010 CY 2011 1/ Quantit Country y Weight Value Quantity Weight Value 42,070,55 25,401,63 365,539,68 289,493,04 258,733,08 U.S.A. 53,320,877 5 1 6 4 2 Mexico 4,134 3,592 18,134 5,318 3,634 21,610 Switzerland 284 220 8,884 0 0 0 United Kingdom 636 1,200 4,523 0 0 0 Germany 58 46 469 12,413 15,692 29,830 Canada 9 7 371 8 6 299 France 14 3 96 0 0 0 South Africa 0 0 0 1 1 8 42,075,62 25,434,10 365,557,42 289,512,37 258,784,82 Total 53,326,012 3 8 6 7 9 Source : Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade SECEX - 1/ Jan-Jun 3.5. Ending Stocks Beginning stocks for the bioethanol for ?All Uses? table is based on information from MAPA and reflect all stocks at ethanol plants on January 1, 2006. Beginning stocks for the bioethanol ?For Fuel Only? table is estimated based on historical average use of bioethanol for fuel/other uses. On average, ethanol for fuel has represented 87 percent of total ethanol disappearance (use), therefore Post assumed this percentage to calculate the theoretical beginning stocks for fuel in January 1, 2006. All other stock figures were calculated based on the difference between total supply and disappearance (consumption and exports). ATO/Sao Paulo forecasts ending stocks for fuel ethanol at 6.45 billion liters for 2012, a 9 percent decrease from 2011 stock level (7.1 billion liters). Ending stocks measured on December 31 of each year do not actually reflect the supply and demand balance. In general, ethanol plants in the center-south are nearing the end of the crushing, whereas ethanol plants in the northeast are fully operating. As a consequence, stock levels are expected to be high. Stock figures measured on April 1, after subtracting the disappearance (consumption and exports) during the first quarter of the year, will likely show a more realistic picture about product availability in the beginning of the new crop season (April). 3.6. Market for Ethanol Used as Other Industrial Chemicals The table below shows the Brazilian bioethanol supply and demand (PS&D) spreadsheet for ?Other Uses? for calendar years 2006 through 2012. No Brazilian authority official or trade source maintains production figures on use ?for fuel? or ?other uses?. All bioethanol production figures are solely reported as hydrous and anhydrous volumes. According to post contacts, ethanol plants produce hydrous and/or anhydrous ethanol and make no distinction between fuel/other uses. The use for fuels/other uses (industrial, refined or neutral) are determined at the consumer level. Ethanol for ?other uses? is used by companies such as chemicals, cosmetics, etc. It is common that ?ethanol refineries? purchase hydrous/anhydrous ethanol to reprocess and resell it the smaller businesses. During the reprocessing, these plants change the original specifications of the product to meet the requested demand. Ethanol Used as Other Industrial Chemicals (million liters) CY 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Beginning Stocks 357 357 361 361 366 367 387 Production 2,009 2,970 3,558 3,904 3,449 3,400 3,900 Imports 0 4 0 4 1 20 20 Exports 984 1,600 2,080 2,179 1,344 1,050 1,350 Consumption 1,025 1,370 1,478 1,725 2,105 2,350 2,550 Ending Stocks 357 361 361 366 367 387 407 Production Capacity (Conventional Fuel) No. of Bi 352 377 407 426 436 440 443 orefineries Capacity 3,107 4,285 5,021 5,324 5,100 6,014 6,615 Capacity Use (%) 64.7% 69.3% 70.9% 73.3% 67.6% 56.5% 59.0% Source: Prepared by ATO/Sao Paulo based on the "Bioethanol Production, Supply and Demand - All Uses" table. Numbers for 2011 and 2012 are projections. The Crystal Sugar and Ethanol Indexes released by the University of Sao Paulo?s College of Agriculture "Luiz de Queiroz" (ESALQ) follow. The Indexes track anhydrous and hydrous ethanol for ?other uses? prices received by producers in the domestic spot market. Price for Anhydrous Ethanol - Other Uses: State of São Paulo (R$/000 liters). Month 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 January 1,154.00 1,000.50 940.00 906.40 1,297.20 1,234.70 February 1,174.80 957.60 913.10 893.70 1,348.20 1,267.40 March 1,346.50 991.60 972.60 784.00 1,044.30 1,587.80 April 1,279.20 1,215.30 921.70 721.60 926.20 2,253.70 May 1,056.40 1,055.30 920.10 733.80 880.10 1,463.90 June 1,071.80 791.20 896.60 701.60 830.60 1,238.70 July 1,152.70 777.70 955.20 810.80 925.20 -- August 1,084.10 762.90 963.10 846.00 983.80 -- September 981.60 756.50 986.90 916.80 1,047.60 -- October 1,000.40 754.80 923.20 1,043.90 1,175.40 -- November 980.70 885.40 913.60 1,100.50 1,222.40 -- December 973.30 974.30 939.80 1,098.70 1,221.60 -- Source: USP/ESALQ/CEPEA. Price for Hydrous Ethanol - Other Uses: State of São Paulo (R$/000 liters). Month 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 January 1,107.20 955.50 798.80 792.30 1,196.20 1,122.50 February 1,170.20 928.40 798.40 799.40 1,139.60 1,182.10 March 1,331.70 954.60 854.80 689.40 891.50 1,443.10 April 1,161.90 1,085.40 817.90 646.20 803.70 1,424.80 May 956.00 836.50 786.30 611.40 743.40 1,054.70 June 937.40 671.90 743.90 622.50 727.80 1,078.80 July 1,008.20 674.60 799.80 717.30 810.70 -- August 977.30 670.40 803.00 745.70 856.10 -- September 838.10 669.80 827.60 807.70 897.80 -- October 864.90 687.80 778.00 942.30 1,000.60 -- November 863.10 805.20 769.90 983.60 1,007.80 -- December 865.40 843.30 769.70 997.10 1,074.50 -- Source: USP/ESALQ/CEPEA. 4. Conventional Biodiesel Conventional biodiesel is defined as first generation biodiesel derived from animal fats and vegetable oils used to transport fuels as a substitute for fossil fuels. Biodiesel is a trans-esterified vegetable oil also known as fatty acid methyl ester produced from soy oil, rapeseed, oil, other vegetable oils, animal fats, and recycled cooking oils. 4.1. Brazilian Biodiesel Production, Supply and Demand (PS&D) Table The table below shows the Brazil?s Biodiesel supply and demand (PS&D) table for calendar years (CY) 2006 through 2012. Biodiesel- Conventional & Advanced Fuels Production, Supply and Demand (Million liters) CY 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Beginning Stocks 0 0 45 90 135 71 91 Production 69 404 1,167 1,608 2,397 2,720 2,850 Advanced Only -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Imports 4 4 5 4 9 12 10 Total Supply 73 408 1,217 1,702 2,541 2,803 2,951 Exports 4 3 1 3 8 4 6 Consumption 69 361 1,125 1,565 2,462 2,708 2,830 Ending Stocks 0 45 90 135 71 91 115 Production Capacity (Conventional) No. of Biorefineries 7 36 62 63 66 70 75 Capacity (Mil Liters) 300 1,800 3,600 4,350 5,837 6,500 6,750 Capacity Use (%) 23% 22% 32% 37% 41% 42% 42% Production Capacity (Advanced) No. of Biorefineries -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Capacity (Mil Liters) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Capacity Use (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Feedstock Use - Conventional (1,000 MT) Soybean for Crush 251 1,475 4,254 5,866 8,739 10,417 10,914 Cottonseed for Crush 15 15 86 248 343 128 134 Animal Fat 9,730 57,012 164,570 226,742 338,025 383,531 401,861 FeedStock Use - Advanced (1,000 MT) FeedStock A -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Source: Prepared by ATO/SP based on ANP, SECEX and industry sources. 4.2. Production A. Feedstock Biodiesel can be produced from several raw materials such as soybeans, castor seed (Ricinus communis), African palm oil (?dendê?), ?pinhao manso? (Jatropha curcas), sunflower, peanut, animal fat, fried oil or others. Despite the variety of feedstock which can potentially be used to produce biodiesel, updated information from ANP, shows that production breakdown by source remains relatively unchanged: soybeans represent on average, 84 percent of the total biodiesel feedstock, followed by animal tallow (15 percent) and cottonseed oil (1 percent). The tables below show official USDA data for soy and cotton oil production for MY 2007/08 through 2010/11, as well as a projection for MY 2011/12. Brazilian Soybeans and Products Production (000 hectares, 000 metric tons) 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Area harvested 21,300 21,700 23,500 24,200 25000 Soybeans 61,000 57,800 69,000 74,500 72500 Soybeans for crushing 31,895 30,778 35,700 36,300 37150 Meal, Soybean 24,720 23,850 27,670 28,130 28790 Oil, Soybean 6,120 5,910 6,850 6,970 7,130 Source: USDA/FAS Brazilian Cotton and Products Production (000 hectares, 000 metric tons) 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Area Harvested 1,077 843 836 1,390 1400 Seed Cotton 1/ 4,078 3,114 3,123 4,942 5329 Lint Cotton 1,602 1,193 1,187 1,878 2024.82 CottonSeed 2,300 1,930 1,977 2,800 2800 Meal, Cottonseed 1,130 948 972 1,375 1,375 Oil, Cottonseed Source: USDA/FAS 1/ Seed cotton calculated based on average lint yields. B. Production Estimates Biodiesel production remains regulated by the government. Post projects total biodiesel production for 2012 at 2.85 billion liters, up 5 percent from the 2011 projection (2.72 billion liters), assuming that the mandatory biodiesel mixture remains unchanged at 5 percent. The production estimate for 2010 is 2.4 billion liters, as reported by ANP. Cumulative January-April 2011 production is approximately 770 million liters, or 61 percent of the auctioned volume for January-June 2011. Biodiesel production is reported below. Brazilian Biodiesel Monthly Production/Deliveries (000 liters Month 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 January 1,075 17,109 76,784 90,352 147,435 183,237 February 1,043 16,933 77,085 80,224 178,049 173,701 March 1,725 22,637 63,680 131,991 214,150 228,054 April 1,786 18,773 64,350 105,458 184,897 185,060 May 2,578 26,005 75,999 103,663 202,729 - June 6,490 27,158 102,767 141,139 204,940 - July 3,331 26,718 107,786 154,557 207,434 - August 5,102 43,959 109,534 167,086 230,613 - September 6,735 46,013 132,258 160,538 219,865 - October 8,581 53,609 126,817 156,811 210,537 - November 16,025 56,401 118,014 166,192 208,972 - December 14,531 49,016 112,053 150,042 187,653 - Total 69,002 404,329 1,167,128 1,608,053 2,397,272 770,052 ANP reports that as of May 2011, Brazil has 67 plants authorized to produce biodiesel, 9 projects already authorized to build the plant and 18 new projects in the process of receiving the authorization from the agency. Current authorized industrial capacity is estimated at 17.316 million liters/day or 6.2 billion liters/year, based on a 360 day operation cycle. This represents approximately 2.3 times the mandatory biodiesel production to be blended in mineral diesel (B5) in 2011; and a 25 percent increase compared to the authorized industrial capacity for the same period in 2010 (13.90 million liters/day). ATO/Sao Paulo projects industrial capacity for 2011 and 2012, at 70 and 75 plants or 6.5 and 6.75 billion liters per year, respectively, based on a 360 day operation cycle. Projections are based on information for authorized plants and requests for authorization provided by ANP and industry sources. C. Cost of Production and Market Prices The biodiesel market remains regulated by the government through a public auction system which sets the volume of biodiesel that should be produced and delivered to fuel distributors in a particular period of the year as well as the average sales price. The auction system gives preference to producers with the Social Fuel Stamp (see Section 2.5.2 ? Biodiesel Social Fuel Stamp), given that only those with the aforementioned stamp are eligible for production of 80 percent of the total auctioned volume. The tables below summarize the results of all auctions during 2010 and 2011. ANP has already coordinated six auctions (20th to 22nd auctions split into two sessions, and benefitting only producers with the Social Fuel Stamp in the first session) to guarantee biodiesel supply in 2011. During November 2010 - May 2011, 1.96 billion liters of biodiesel were sold for delivery during January-September 2011. Additional auctions should take place in the upcoming months to guarantee supply for the last quarter of the year. Biodiesel Auctions Auction 17th Auct 1 17th Auct 1 18th Auct 1 18th Auct 2 Date 3/1/2010 3/2/2010 05/27-28/10 5/31/2010 Number of Suppliers 29 20 27 27 Offered Quantity (m3) 565,000 600,000 Purchased Quantity (m3) 452,000 113,000 480,000 120,000 Opening/Reference Price (R$/m3) 2,300.00 2,300.00 2,320.00 2,320.00 Average Price (R$/m3) 1/ 2,241.69 2,218.49 2,193.32 1,754.60 Price Discount (%) (2.54) (3.54) (5.46) (24.37) Delivery Date Apr-Jun/10 Apr-Jun/10 Jul-Sep/10 Jul-Sep/10 Source: ANP 1/ Price FOB, including PIS/PASEP and COFINS, excluding ICMS Biodiesel Auctions Auction 19th Auct 1 19th Auct 1 20th Auct 1 20th Auct 2 08/30-31 & 08/30-31 & Dat 0 e 09/1-3/10 09 7-19/10 11/17-19/1/1-3/10 11/1 Number of Suppliers 25 24 31 29 Offered Quantity (m3) 615,000 600,000 Purchased Quantity (m3) 492,000 123,000 480,000 120,000 Opening/Reference Price (R$/m3) 2,320.00 2,320.00 2,320.00 2,320.00 Average Price (R$/m3) 1/ 1,750.00 1,720.00 2,310.17 2,243.11 Price Discount (%) (24.65) (25.72) (0.42) (3.31) Delivery Date Oct-Dez/10 Oct-Dez/10 Jan-Mar/11 Jan-Mar/11 Source: ANP 1/ Price FOB, including PIS/PASEP and COFINS, excluding ICMS Biodiesel Auctions Auction 21st Auct 1 21st Auct 1 22nd Auct 1 22nd Auct 2 Date 02/16-8/11 02/16-18/11 05/24-26/11 05/24-26/11 Number of Suppliers 27 27 31 22 Offered Quantity (m3) 660,000 700,000 Purchased Quantity (m3) 528,000 132,000 560,000 140,000 Opening/Reference Price (R$/m3) 2,378.96 2,413.33 2,316.25 2,354.50 Average Price (R$/m3) 1/ 2,046.00 2,047.02 2,252.58 2,027.70 Price Discount (%) (14.00) (15.18) (2.75) (13.88) Delivery Date Apr-Jun/11 Apr-Jun/11 Jul-Sep/11 Jul-Sep/11 Source: ANP 1/ Price FOB, including PIS/PASEP and COFINS, excluding ICMS Biodiesel prices received by producers are determined by the public auction system (see Average Price in the tables above). Producers are not allowed to change the sales price set at the auctions and consequently must search for low cost raw material or hedge their activities to offset risk. Note that the higher opening/reference prices in the last auctions reflect the higher market soy prices, major raw material used to produce biodiesel. According to the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE), raw materials make up approximately 75 percent of the biodiesel production cost. Given that almost 85 percent of biodiesel production still results from the use of soybean oil, the profitability of the sector is highly dependent on oilseed prices. Industry sources report that biodiesel production costs are estimated at R$ 2.40/liter, including taxes, depending on the producing region, considering soybean oil prices at R$ 1,750.00/ton (without taxes) and the exchange rate of R$ 1.60/US$. The tables below show the price for soybean oil in 2010 and 2011 (January-June). The average crude price in the state of Sao Paulo for the first semester of 2011 is R 2,456/ton, as opposed to R$ R$ 1,749/ton for January-June 2010 and R$ 2,124/ton for July-December 2010. The sharp increase in prices has negatively affected producers? profitability. Soybean Oil, Crude - Prices (2010) Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Chicago (US$/ton) 876.00 844.80 869.99 865.16 844.07 818.04 Prêmio (US$/ton) -3.58 -8.38 -47.40 -43.65 -12.49 -0.07 Port of Paranaguá - Fob (US$/ton) 872.42 836.43 822.59 821.51 831.58 817.96 São Paulo - (R$/ton com ICMS 12%) 1,795 1,840 1,732 1,674 1,733 1,723 Elaborated by ABIOVE based on several sources. Soybean Oil, Crude - Prices (2010) Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chicago (US$/ton) 838 899 912 1,013 1,128 1,205 Prêmio (US$/ton) 28.22 19.84 18.74 5.51 14.99 0.22 Port of Paranaguá - Fob (US$/ton) 866 919 930 1,018 1,143 1,205 São Paulo - (R$/ton com ICMS 12%) 1,760 1,986 2,002 2,195 2,332 2,472 Elaborated by ABIOVE based on several sources. Soybean Oil, Crude - Prices (2011) Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Chicago (US$/ton) 1,267 1,270 1,229 1,276 1,260 1,253 Prêmio (US$/ton) 9.92 8.82 -1.10 -4.08 -4.57 -1.76 Port of Paranaguá - Fob (US$/ton) 1,277 1,279 1,228 1,272 1,256 1,252 São Paulo - (R$/ton com ICMS 12%) 2,525 2,607 2,515 2,375 2,360 2,354 Elaborated by ABIOVE based on several sources. 4.3. Consumption Biodiesel domestic consumption remains regulated by GOB, thus the sector must comply with the biodiesel mandate which requires all mineral diesel to have a five percent biodiesel blend (B5) as of 2010. Based on industry projections for mineral diesel domestic demand, ATO/Sao Paulo forecasts total biodiesel domestic consumption for 2011 and 2012 at 2.71 and 2.83 billion liters, respectively. Biodiesel consumption for 2010 is estimated at 2.46 billion liters based on mineral diesel consumption of 49.23 billion liters and the mandatory mixture of five percent (B5) during 2010. The table below shows the vehicle fuels consumption matrix from 2007-2011, according to ANP. Brazilian Fuel Consumption Matrix (000 m3) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1/ Diesel 41,558 44,764 44,298 49,239 20,144 Gasoline C** 24,325 25,175 25,409 29,844 13,974 Hydrous Ethanol 9,367 13,290 16,471 15,074 4,277 Source: ANP ** Gasoline C includes 20-25 % of anhydrous ethanol. 1/ 2011 refers to January-May. 4.4. Trade The following tables show biodiesel imports and exports from 2006 - 2011 (January-June) in metric tons as reported by the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) and converted to liters. To date, no significant exports have occurred. Nonetheless, Brazil can potentially become a net exporter due to the excess industrial capacity. Brazilian Biodiesel Trade (NCM 3824.90.29, metric tons) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1/ Imports 3,385 3,194 4,409 3,803 7,904 5,837 Exports 3,095 2,222 1,289 2,432 7,302 1,673 Source: SECEX. 1/ Jan-Jun Brazilian Biodiesel Trade (NCM 3824.90.29, 000 Liters) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1/ Imports 3,868 3,651 5,039 4,346 9,033 6,671 Exports 3,537 2,539 1,473 2,779 8,345 1,912 Source: ATO/Sao Paulo, based on SECEX figures and biodiesel density = 0.875 g/cm3 Export figures by country of destination and imports by origin for the years 2009 - 2011 (January- June) are shown below, according to SECEX. Brazilian Biodiesel Exports by Country of Destination (Metric tons, US$ 000 FOB) CY 2009 CY 2010 CY 2011 1/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Argentina 1,525 3,559 5,780 11,352 817 2,208 Singapore 81 154 337 781 265 790 China 202 388 231 532 44 133 Chile 156 648 184 837 93 463 Uruguay 37 164 139 425 31 186 Indonesia 64 83 112 145 80 104 South Africa 0 0 96 234 84 231 Peru 84 402 87 447 50 261 Colombia 62 326 79 395 3 13 Paraguay 8 42 69 299 53 282 Others 212 440 187 480 153 623 Total 2,432 6,206 7,302 15,929 1,673 5,293 Source : Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade SECEX - NCM 3824.90.29 - 1/ Jan - Jun Brazilian Biodiesel Imports by Country of Origin (Metric Tons, US$ 000 FOB) CY 2009 CY 2010 CY 2011 1/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value U.S.A. 1,287 4,798 2,059 7,730 1,942 5,345 Germany 538 1,772 1,974 6,178 1,531 5,854 Mexico 955 2,914 1,708 5,300 694 2,152 Spain 3 19 1,188 3,451 405 1,681 Netherlands 311 1,157 367 1,477 27 134 Denmark 358 931 189 385 112 231 Singapore 81 207 108 283 366 1,232 United Kingdom 130 597 102 437 20 112 Italy 31 87 43 124 3 20 China 12 67 43 226 42 201 Others 99 348 123 848 695 2,193 Total 3,803 12,898 7,904 26,440 5,837 19,156 Source : Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade SECEX - NCM 3824.90.29 - 1/ Jan - Jun 4.5. Stocks ATO/Sao Paulo forecasts biodiesel ending stocks for 2012 at 115 million liters, up 24 million liters from 2011 (71 million liters), based on the difference between total supply and disappearance (consumption and exports). 5. Advanced Biofuels For reporting purposes, advanced biofuels include all next generation technologies and feedstocks beyond the conventional sugar, starch, oilseed and animal fat-based biofuels now produced commercially. Advanced biofuels are generally derived from non-food crops, energy crops (switchgrass, miscanthus or jatropha) or agricultural, forestry and municipal waste. Advanced biofuels include second generation fuels (like cellulosic ethanol, methanol, dimethil ether ? DME, and Fischer-Tropsch diesel), and third generation biofuel made from algae (or seaweed). Finally, advanced biofuels also include the ?drop in? fuels, which are biomass-derived fuels chemically equivalent to gasoline, diesel and jet fossil fuels. No commercial use of advanced biofuels has begun yet. The Sugarcane Technological Center (CTC) located in Sao Paulo state remains the leading research and development center for sugarcane, sugar and ethanol in Brazil, responsible for over 70 percent of all research and development related to the sugar-ethanol-energy sector in the country. According to CTC, the center is ready to develop second-generation ethanol since feedstock and logistic infrastructure are already available. However, the costs for technology transfers to industrial scale are still an obstacle and that is causing a delay in second-generation ethanol developments. Another key institution working in the development of a commercial technology for the production of cellulosic ethanol is the the Bioethanol Science and Technology Center (CTBE) operated by the Brazilian Association of Synchrotron Light Technology (ABTLuS), by a management contract with the Minstry of Science and Techonology (MCT). CTBE continues its basic research in the action of enzymes on the lignocellulosic material, the molecular structure of the components of sugarcane, etc. CTBE has also built an ethanol pilot plant to conduct experiments with advanced biofuels. Novozynes, a company that produces biofuels enzymes which can be used for cellulosic ethanol production, reports that currently holds 47 percent of the world market share in research and development in the sugarcane sector. The company emphasizes that Brazil needs to lead industrial developments, because operational and logistics costs can be shared with first-generation ethanol production and 20 percent of the land cost can be saved if the production unit is installed in the sugar-ethanol mill. 6. Notes on Statistical Data 6.1. Bioethanol Beginning stocks for the bioethanol for ?All Uses? table is based on information from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) and reflect all stocks at the ethanol p
Posted: 17 August 2011, last updated 19 August 2011

See more from Energy in Brazil

Expert Views    
Power Opportunities in Brazil   By UK Trade & Investment
Biofuels Annual 2011   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Oil and Gas E&P Outlook -2012   By U.S. Commercial Service Poland
Hot Tips    
Biodiesels in Brazil   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Latest News    
Solar Energy Update-   By U.S. Commercial Service