Sugar Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Tropical and Subtropical Fruits, Sugar Cane in Brazil

Posted on: 27 Apr 2012

Brazil’s MY 2012/13 sugarcane crop is forecast at 565 mmt, up 4 mmt from the previous season (561 mmt).

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 4/13/2012 GAIN Report Number: BR12005 Brazil Sugar Annual 2012 Approved By: Frederick Giles, DirectorAgricultural Trade Office, Sao Paulo Prepared By: Sergio Barros, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: This report updates BR11016. Brazil?s MY 2012/13 sugarcane crop is forecast at 565 mmt, up 4 mmt from the previous season (561 mmt). Approximately 48.63 percent of the crop should be diverted to sugar, up 0.56 percentage points compared to MY 2011/12 due to continued strong international demand for the product. Total exports for MY 2012/13 are projected at 25.25 mmt, raw value, up 2 percent from MY 2011/12. Commodities: Sugar, Centrifugal Production: The MY 2012/13 Brazilian sugarcane production is projected at 565 million metric tons (mmt), up 4 mmt from MY 2011/12. The Center-South (CS) region is expected to harvest 500 mmt of sugarcane, a 1 percent increase relative the previous crop (493 mmt), due to expected low agricultural yields as a result of the aging of the sugarcane fields and below average rainfall during the January-March 2012 period. ATO Sao Paulo forecasts the North-Northeastern (NNE) production for MY 2012/13 at 65 mmt, similar to 2011/12 (68 mmt). The crushing period has just begun and two new plants are expected to come online this season. Total sugarcane area for MY 2012/13 is forecast at 9.75 million hectares (ha), up 100,000 ha from MY 2011/12 (9.65 million ha). The table below shows sugarcane harvested area, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply?s (MAPA) National Supply Company (CONAB), and the Agricultural Economics Institute (IEA) of the State of Sao Paulo Secretariat of Agriculture. Area Harvested to Sugarcane (1,000 ha). 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1/ Brazil 1/ 5,529.6 6,016.0 7,088.9 7,409.6 8,033.6 8,368.4 8,567.2 Sao Paulo 3,436.8 3,907.4 4,614.7 4,937.9 5,135.3 5,269.4 n/a Sources: CONAB, IEA. 1/forecast The industrial yield for MY 2012/13 is forecast at 139.07 kg of TRS (total reducing sugars)/mt, up 2.48 kg compared to MY 2011/12 (136.59 kg TRS/mt). The following table shows historical Brazilian yields measured in TRS per metric ton of sugarcane. Sugarcane Industrial Yields (kg TRS/metric ton) MY 08/09 MY 09/10 MY 10/11 MY 11/12 MY 12/13 * TRS/ton 140.32 130.99 140.07 136.59 139.07 Souce: USDA/FAS/ATO/Sao Paulo * MY 2012/13 - projection. The following tables show monthly sugarcane crush data for the state of São Paulo and the CS region from the 2007/08 to 2011/12 crops (April-March), as reported by the Sugar and Alcohol Millers Association of São Paulo State (UNICA). Sugarcane crushed in the state of Sao Paulo (1,000 metric tons). Month 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 February 0.00 0.00 0.00 207.21 0.00 March 0.00 472.40 2,665.32 4,120.21 708.01 April 11,725.0 12,948.0 27,545.3 35,863.9 13,464.1 May 35,594.1 38,933.8 46,716.6 51,305.9 49,442.9 June 43,459.2 45,157.1 46,210.3 52,523.4 48,575.0 July 38,781.8 50,136.3 46,934.1 52,596.6 53,335.4 August 46,735.2 47,158.6 45,596.4 52,065.6 49,139.9 September 43,418.5 46,246.2 37,594.3 40,116.0 46,245.9 October 38,912.0 42,464.9 44,334.6 36,567.7 27,754.5 November 27,542.8 39,485.7 36,651.4 27,872.0 14,814.4 December 9,215.3 19,375.0 16,809.7 5,606.2 702.4 January 860.4 2,104.7 3,638.0 294.6 0.0 February 0.0 1,050.7 3,221.3 105.9 23.9 March 0.0 759.5 3,343.3 257.5 23.4 Cumulative 296,244.4 346,293.0 361,260.7 359,502.7 304,229.9 Source: Sugar and Alcohol Millers Association of Sao Paulo State (UNICA). Sugarcane crushed in Center-Southern Brazil (1,000 metric tons). Month 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 February 0 0 0 325 0 March 0 1,340 4,717 6,618 1,795 April 20,297 20,091 39,209 51,599 22,208 May 51,676 55,055 66,950 75,633 76,447 June 62,666 64,751 67,169 81,550 77,244 July 57,449 73,335 70,183 82,122 82,349 August 67,865 68,224 70,987 82,301 79,460 September 63,104 67,655 59,736 64,732 74,081 October 55,929 62,350 65,734 56,349 46,568 November 38,290 56,283 54,713 42,892 27,818 December 12,876 28,096 26,254 11,267 3,660 January 963 3,952 6,399 843 938 February 0 2,190 5,385 441 557 March 0 1,794 4,527 270 138 Cumulative 431,115 505,116 541,962 556,945 493,264 Source: Sugar and Alcohol Millers Association of Sao Paulo State (UNICA). Sugar and Ethanol For MY 2012/13, total sucrose (total reducing sugar, TRS) content destined for sugar and ethanol production is forecast at 48.63 and 51.37 percent, respectively, as opposed to 48.07 and 51.93 percent, respectively for MY 2011/12. Sugar-ethanol mills are likely to increase sugar production due to continued strong demand for the product in foreign markets. In addition, the sector should supply enough anhydrous ethanol to the Brazilian market to guarantee the 20 percent blend to gasoline. Sugar production for MY 2012/13 is forecast at 37.8 mmt, raw value, up 4 percent compared to revised figure for MY 2011/12 (36.15 mmt). The CS states should account for 33 mmt, raw value, up 5 percent from MY 2011/12 (31.25 mmt). The NNE should account for 4.8 mmt of sugar, raw value, similar to MY 2011/12. Total ethanol production in MY 2012/13 is forecast at 23 billion liters (8.9 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol and 14.1 billion liters of hydrated ethanol. In spite of the steady increase in the flex-fuel vehicle (FFV) fleet, hydrated ethanol production is likely to be limited by the size of the crop, high prices at the pump, and the trend towards sugar production similar to what happened during the previous year. The table below shows the sales of FFV and ethanol powered cars. Note that sales of FFV currently represent approximately 90 percent of total vehicle sales. According to the industry, at the end of 2011, flex fuel vehicles represented roughly 45 percent of the light vehicles fleet. Licensing of Ethanol Powered Vehicles (pure ethanol & flex fuel units) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 /1 1,432,197 2,003,197 2,329,331 2,652,368 2,876,223 2,848,122 414,392 Source: National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA) 1/ January-February Note: flex fuel vehicles were introduced in March 2003. The steady sales of flex-fuel vehicles do not solely guarantee a higher demand for ethanol given that consumers? decisions are driven by the ratio between ethanol and gasoline prices. The 70 percent ratio between ethanol and gasoline prices is the rule of thumb in determining whether flex car owners will choose to fill up with ethanol (price ratio below 70 percent) or gasoline (price ratio above 70 percent). The table below shows the average prices for gasoline and ethanol as well as the price ratio for January-February (off-peak) and July-August (peak season) 2009-2012. Note that similarly to what happened during January-February 2011, gasoline consumption during the January-February 2012 period was favored in several Brazilian states, as reported in the tables below, thus reducing ethanol demand during the off-season. Gasoline and Ethanol Prices in Selected States (average price, R$/liter) Gasoline Ethanol 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan 2.393 2.477 2.487 2.649 1.312 1.807 1.733 1.888 Sao Feb 2.398 2.509 2.490 2.641 1.331 1.831 1.765 1.818 Paulo State Jun 2.349 2.399 2.665 1.168 1.274 1.704 Aug 2.351 2.412 2.663 1.231 1.387 1.814 Jan 2.391 2.475 2.482 2.647 1.312 1.810 1.733 1.874 Sao Feb 2.396 2.508 2.486 2.630 1.327 1.835 1.766 1.801 Paulo City Jun 2.346 2.395 2.680 1.180 1.274 1.716 Aug 2.348 2.408 2.673 1.230 1.382 1.820 Jan 2.381 2.489 2.537 2.824 1.611 1.965 1.902 2.208 M Feb 2.374 2.509 2.584 2.817 1.623 2.077 1.956 2.166 inas Gerais Jun 2.326 2.412 2.823 1.501 1.678 2.075 Aug 2.361 2.621 2.817 1.564 1.710 2.126 Jan 2.331 2.431 2.499 2.761 1.597 1.926 1.886 2.172 Belo Horizonte (MG Feb 2.329 2.458 2.547 2.746 1.612 2.064 1.938 2.128 Capital) Jun 2.282 2.379 2.778 1.487 1.661 2.087 Aug 2.313 2.381 2.781 1.547 1.683 2.113 Jan 2.537 2.641 2.654 2.850 1.685 2.044 2.022 2.266 Rio Feb 2.535 2.663 2.663 2.846 1.695 2.104 2.053 2.257 Janeiro State Jun 2.524 2.613 2.892 1.588 1.703 2.200 Aug 2.526 2.598 2.854 1.604 1.718 2.212 Jan 2.534 2.640 2.651 2.818 1.680 2.050 2.025 2.257 Rio Feb 2.531 2.660 2.661 2.810 1.692 2.106 2.057 2.236 Janeiro Capital Jun 2.521 2.611 2.865 1.579 1.695 2.165 Aug 2.523 2.595 2.824 1.598 1.713 2.191 Jan 2.538 2.568 2.534 2.738 1.746 2.257 2.103 2.372 Porto Alegre (RS Feb 2.538 2.592 2.552 2.689 1.765 2.335 2.157 2.348 Capital) Jun 2.419 2.488 2.722 1.550 1.765 2.180 Aug 2.577 2.560 2.632 1.765 1.836 2.237 Jan 2.565 2.654 2.667 2.831 1.581 1.838 1.822 1.959 Goiania (GO Feb 2.564 2.655 2.697 2.782 1.581 1.897 1.891 1.899 Capital) Jun 2.562 2.304 2.830 1.483 1.227 1.782 Aug 2.556 2.384 2.838 1.411 1.347 1.837 Jan 2.388 2.530 2.644 2.551 1.615 1.909 1.871 2.076 Fortaleza (CE Feb 2.533 2.530 2.647 2.660 1.747 2.013 1.944 2.077 Capital) Jun 2.363 2.663 2.688 1.671 1.807 2.029 Aug 2.575 2.645 2.661 1.768 1.772 2.161 Source: Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels National Agency (ANP). Ratio Ethanol/Gasoline Prices 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan 55% 73% 70% 71% Sao 56% 73% 71% 69% Paulo Feb Jun 50% 53% 64% Aug 52% 58% 68% Jan 55% 73% 70% 71% Sao Paulo Feb 55% 73% 71% 68% Jun 50% 53% 64% Aug 52% 57% 68% Jan 68% 79% 75% 78% M Feb 68% 83% 76% 77% inas Gerais Jun 65% 70% 74% Aug 66% 65% 75% Jan 69% 79% 75% 79% Belo Hor Feb 69% 84% 76% 77% izonte Jun 65% 70% 75% Aug 67% 71% 76% Jan 66% 77% 76% 80% Rio Feb 67% 79% 77% 79% Janeiro Jun 63% 65% 76% Aug 63% 66% 78% Jan 66% 78% 76% 80% Rio de Feb 67% 79% 77% 80% Janeiro Jun 63% 65% 76% Aug 63% 66% 78% Jan 69% 88% 83% 87% Porto Alegre Feb 70% 90% 85% 87% Jun 64% 71% 80% Aug 68% 72% 85% Jan 62% 69% 68% 69% Goian Feb 62% 71% 70% 68% ia Jun 58% 53% 63% Aug 55% 57% 65% Jan 68% 75% 71% 81% Feb 69% 80% 73% 78% Fortaleza Jun 71% 68% 75% Aug 69% 67% 81% Source: Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels National Agency (ANP). Gray Area means gasoline prices more attractive than ethanol Data for fuel consumption in Brazil, as reported by the Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels National Agency (ANP), follow. The figures take into account the product sales by distributors and do not include illegal sales, which were common in the past for hydrated ethanol due to tax differentiation between both types of ethanol. Brazilian Fuel Consumption Matrix (000 m3) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1/ Diesel 44,764 44,298 49,239 51,782 3,878 Gasoline C** 25,175 25,409 29,844 35,452 3,091 Hydrated Ethanol 13,290 16,471 15,074 10,718 718 Source: ANP ** Gasoline C includes 20-25 % of anhydrous ethanol. 1/ 2012 refers to January 2012. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), cumulative ethanol production for the 2011/12 crop through February 28, 2012 was reported at 21.99 billion liters ? 8.45 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol and 13.54 liters of hydrated ethanol. The table below shows sugarcane, sugar and ethanol production by state for MY 2011/12, as reported by MAPA. Cane, Sugar & Alcohol Production: 2011/12 Crop (MT and 000 Liters) Ethanol State/Region Cane Sugar Anhydous Hydrous Total Acre 52,622 0 0 2,681 2,681 Alagoas 25,222,944 2,145,605 311,419 293,394 604,813 Amazonas 286,969 15,483 0 6,432 6,432 Bahia 2,509,220 120,475 66,505 50,093 116,598 Ceara 119,896 0 0 8,392 8,392 Maranhao 2,265,572 9,383 147,699 29,505 177,204 Para 66,637 15,414 17,255 21,762 39,017 Paraíba 5,819,179 214,287 143,866 179,684 323,550 Pernambuco 16,358,625 1,390,815 17,344 150,225 167,569 Piaui 991,946 60,068 35,587 1,891 37,478 Rio Gde Norte 2,959,760 191,074 57,552 4,495 62,047 Rondonia 157,091 0 0 12,416 12,416 Sergipe 1,739,053 77,255 33,417 55,289 88,706 Tocantins 1,366,152 0 75,339 33,849 109,188 NNE 59,915,666 4,239,859 905,983 850,108 1,756,091 Espirito Santo 3,998,344 121,933 137,811 74,119 211,930 Goias 45,220,066 1,752,443 724,594 1,950,827 2,675,421 Minas Gerais 50,168,231 3,236,283 739,935 1,358,022 2,097,957 Mato Grosso Sul 33,859,650 1,587,746 425,824 1,206,000 1,631,824 Mato Grosso 13,146,985 398,191 329,533 51,392 380,925 Parana 40,519,301 3,008,029 365,888 1,039,416 1,405,304 Rio de Janeiro 2,207,855 129,666 0 81,118 81,118 Rio Grande Sul 95,125 0 0 6,575 6,575 Sao Paulo 307,654,191 21,211,267 4,820,383 6,923,631 11,744,014 Center South 496,869,748 31,445,558 7,543,968 12,691,100 20,235,068 TOTAL 556,785,414 35,685,417 8,449,951 13,541,208 21,991,159 Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply-Sugar, Alcohol Dept, 02/29/12 The tables below show monthly sugar production for the state of Sao Paulo and the CS region for the 2007/08 to 2011/12 crops (April-March), as reported by UNICA. Sugar production in the state of Sao Paulo (Metric tons, tel quel) Month 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 February 0 0 0 4,575 0 March 0 8,946 68,428 154,759 23,072 April 506,326 433,514 1,152,563 1,745,785 467,145 May 2,060,416 1,872,140 2,530,999 3,025,435 2,734,815 June 2,773,968 2,425,239 2,728,867 3,427,445 3,161,100 July 2,521,042 3,094,298 3,020,119 3,703,160 3,853,337 August 3,234,706 3,034,421 3,043,705 3,923,784 3,840,998 September 3,172,657 3,101,858 2,468,929 3,125,428 3,801,633 October 2,925,756 2,592,977 2,838,435 2,357,500 2,118,061 November 1,475,693 2,083,437 2,065,829 1,726,851 1,023,956 December 394,983 906,197 570,067 228,169 43,837 January 73,515 59,565 77,063 4,471 0 February 0 21,616 70,985 6,287 0 March 0 28,228 93,377 12,470 0 Cumulative 19,139,062 19,662,436 20,729,364 23,446,119 21,067,954 Source: Sugar and Alcohol Millers Association of Sao Paulo State (UNICA). Sugar production in Center-Southern Brazil (Metric tons, tel quel). Month 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 February 0 0 0 4,575 0 March 0 41,936 147,030 208,240 56,496 April 851,430 631,526 1,572,304 2,342,614 761,078 May 2,816,677 2,527,935 3,364,577 4,094,385 3,966,565 June 3,782,565 3,282,349 3,669,831 4,854,177 4,618,058 July 3,550,615 4,243,947 4,137,318 5,284,255 5,411,365 August 4,480,838 4,087,442 4,381,252 5,704,484 5,629,162 September 4,367,990 4,247,955 3,552,156 4,619,064 5,607,822 October 3,885,907 3,541,734 3,824,806 3,425,318 3,257,617 November 1,879,787 2,741,754 2,786,747 2,496,111 1,776,138 December 504,722 1,221,877 870,648 437,100 178,575 January 80,075 92,084 118,870 10,797 28,526 February 0 40,002 108,770 7,031 14,408 March 0 49,278 110,527 12,574 2,332 Cumulative 26,200,606 26,749,819 28,644,834 33,500,725 31,308,142 Source: Sugar and Alcohol Millers Association of Sao Paulo State (UNICA). Sugarcane, sugar and ethanol prices in the Domestic Market The State of Sao Paulo Sugarcane, Sugar and Alcohol Growers Council (CONSECANA) reports that the average sugarcane price (April 2011-March 2012) for the state of Sao Paulo for the 2011/12 crop is reais (R$) 0.5018 per kg of TRS, or R$ 70 per ton of sugarcane, up R$ 14.16 per ton compared to the 2010/2011 crop (R$ 0.3912 per kg of TRS, or R$ 55.24 per ton of sugarcane), due to better sugar and ethanol prices during the crushing season vis-à-vis the previous year. Note that CONSECANA?s prices are based on both sugar and ethanol prices in domestic and international markets. The Crystal Sugar and Ethanol Indexes released by the University of Sao Paulo?s College of Agriculture "Luiz de Queiroz" (ESALQ) follow. The indices track crystal sugar, anhydrous and hydrated prices received by producers in the domestic spot market. Crystal Sugar Prices - Domestic Market (Real, 50kg/bag, including tax). Period 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 January 25.04 36.71 70.83 76.29 62.04 February 26.20 44.77 72.49 75.17 59.10 March 27.44 48.40 69.58 70.55 57.34 April 1/ 28.11 46.48 63.66 66.24 58.59 May 26.71 44.57 43.76 59.73 June 24.94 42.20 40.40 52.25 July 24.38 41.46 40.90 64.33 August 29.01 45.43 46.42 68.49 September 30.81 55.50 56.91 65.21 October 31.13 57.28 71.68 62.73 November 30.74 56.21 75.24 63.91 December 31.72 58.73 72.66 63.57 Source: USP/ESALQ/CEPEA. September 1/ refers to April 5. Fuel Anhydrous Ethanol Prices: State of São Paulo (R$/000 liters). Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 January 786.22 873.30 1,285.40 1,233.20 1,272.75 February 808.08 860.30 1,297.60 1,293.10 1,186.45 March 831.50 744.50 974.60 1,596.60 1,246.30 April 1/ 789.40 697.00 908.40 2,375.00 1,291.40 May 821.50 676.40 839.20 1,380.70 June 787.00 692.80 827.30 1,244.60 July 873.20 803.78 924.20 1,298.90 August 858.50 820.70 961.90 1,352.80 September 891.20 912.90 1,040.20 1,385.20 October 902.20 1,086.40 1,173.20 1,379.08 November 897.00 1,093.80 1,185.20 1,380.20 December 880.60 1,131.60 1,201.80 1,355.96 Source: USP/ESALQ/CEPEA. September 1/ refers to April 5. Fuel Hydrous Ethanol Prices: State of São Paulo (R$/000 liters). Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 January 697.18 781.40 1,171.20 1,109.40 1,169.93 February 714.70 777.60 1,095.80 1,176.10 1,121.18 March 754.56 656.80 825.20 1,421.90 1,203.10 April 1/ 715.60 621.30 799.70 1,387.50 1,213.10 May 697.10 585.22 724.30 1,005.90 June 665.30 606.60 720.30 1,113.70 July 718.10 710.20 797.90 1,136.80 August 719.30 726.50 835.70 1,193.00 September 749.60 791.40 896.20 1,205.70 October 715.70 935.10 977.70 1,230.95 November 726.40 941.90 1,001.00 1,276.35 December 737.70 1,000.40 1,075.10 1,248.38 Source: USP/ESALQ/CEPEA. September 1/ refers to April 5. Consumption: During MY 2012/13, ATO Sao Paulo projects Brazilian sugar consumption at 11.7 mmt, raw value, up 200,000 mt above MY 2011/12 (11.5 mmt), reflecting Brazilian population growth and a continued expansion in the food processing sector. Trade: Exports Sugar Exports For MY 2012/13, the Brazilian sugar exports are forecast at 25.25 mmt, raw value, up 600,000 mmt compared to the revised figure from 2011/12 (24.65 mmt), as a consequence of continued strong international demand for the product. Raw sugar should account for 19.85 mmt, raw value, whereas the remainder represents exports of refined sugar. The following tables show Brazilian sugar exports by destination for MY 2010/11, 20011/12 (May- March) and calendar year (CY) 2011, as reported by the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX). Brazilian Sugar Exports (NCMs 1701.11, 1701.13 & 1701.14, MT, tel quel, US$ 000 FOB) MY 2010/11 1/ MY 2011/12 1/ CY 2011 2/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value RUSSIAN FED. 3,251,609 1,605,147 1,859,206 1,011,232 3,255,215 1,843,121 CHINA 1,237,100 505,547 2,043,200 1,157,320 2,043,192 1,157,230 EGYPT 1,000,791 453,525 1,633,666 939,189 1,517,276 878,444 ALGERIA 1,178,416 515,018 1,265,863 716,010 1,306,455 743,629 MALAYSIA 943,206 406,315 900,140 506,809 1,066,800 588,996 BANGLADESH 695,723 296,830 1,119,727 626,871 1,042,456 578,792 VENEZUELA 747,175 369,450 811,154 490,537 863,754 515,791 IRAN 1,384,191 602,166 897,750 492,583 857,520 466,512 MOROCCO 825,732 395,897 772,855 425,235 851,753 485,947 CANADA 718,987 328,711 885,309 518,231 840,617 490,244 OTHERS 7,578,842 3,504,483 6,552,401 3,842,185 6,507,876 3,800,081 TOTAL 19,561,772 8,983,090 18,741,270 10,726,202 20,152,913 11,548,786 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding 1/May - March - 2/Jan - Dec. Brazilian Sugar Exports (NCM 1701.99.00, MT, tel quel, US$ 000 FOB) MY 2010/11 1/ MY 2011/12 1/ CY 2011 2/ Country Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value UAE 1,119,570 491,766 758,897 439,743 836,422 483,495 GHANA 441,378 236,143 290,042 199,284 380,408 256,538 SAUDI ARABIA 165,800 81,401 375,050 221,901 336,635 200,523 NIGERIA 387,010 173,406 262,152 163,983 321,845 180,538 YEMEN 506,959 249,194 400,325 267,772 244,834 166,872 TOGO 111,541 54,221 173,509 117,757 202,305 139,324 ANGOLA 211,239 114,810 200,237 137,375 201,752 136,584 IRAQ 161,742 90,509 196,258 139,306 196,501 139,115 MAURITANIA 169,898 94,655 188,268 130,577 187,922 131,239 SENEGAL 87,134 50,717 139,174 91,214 172,752 117,424 OTHERS 3,234,263 1,695,016 1,917,824 1,323,317 2,122,684 1,439,678 TOTAL 6,596,533 3,331,839 4,901,735 3,232,229 5,204,060 3,391,329 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding 1/May - March - 2/Jan - Dec. Ethanol Exports The tables below show ethanol exports by destination for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 (May- March), as reported by the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX). Brazilian Ethanol Exports (NCM 2207.10, 2207.20.11 & 2207.20.19, 000 Liters, MT, US$ 1,000 FOB) MY 2010/11 1/ MY 2011/12 1/ Country Volume Weight Value Volume Weight Value UNITED STATES 340,109 269,037 213,906 645,821 514,958 565,269 SOUTH KOREA 400,676 323,751 210,945 243,558 196,827 165,824 JAPAN 276,901 223,389 142,834 255,824 205,941 185,116 JAMAICA 123,406 99,775 60,589 137,589 110,904 109,416 TRINIDAD TOBAGO 6,561 5,282 3,761 150,581 121,768 118,582 NETHERLANDS 230,624 185,638 121,125 85,046 68,688 60,445 SWITZERLAND 53,024 42,722 30,177 73,312 59,126 47,677 NIGERIA 94,977 76,790 52,458 60,647 49,008 41,280 EL SALVADOR 0 0 0 50,081 40,489 33,855 INDIA 58,603 47,375 27,717 27,565 22,296 21,445 OTHERS 278,801 222,672 158,949 121,096 97,684 97,532 TOTAL 1,863,682 1,496,430 1,022,462 1,851,121 1,487,688 1,446,442 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding 1/May- March. Ethanol Imports The tables below show ethanol imports by destination for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 (May- March), as reported by the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX). Brazilian Ethanol Imports (NCM 2207.10, 2207.20.11 & 2207.20.19, 000 Liters, MT, US$ 1,000 FOB) MY 2010/11 1/ MY 2011/12 1/ Country Volume Weight Value Volume Weight Value UNITED STATES 61,085 48,157 33,802 1,270,276 1,003,640 906,108 UNITED KINGDOM 51 1 11 23,964 18,903 18,193 FRANCE 0 0 0 1,674 1,321 1,268 TRINIDAD TOBAGO 0 0 0 417 345 441 JAMAICA 78 77 251 405 371 1,364 BARBADOS 43 36 59 135 113 165 GERMANY 22 30 377 49 54 573 NETHERLANDS 0 0 0 17 13,398 16,204 SPAIN 0 0 0 12 6,709 4,462 MEXICO 13 10 56 8 6 42 OTHERS 78 70 156 30 24 64 TOTAL 61,369 48,381 34,711 1,296,986 1,044,884 948,884 Source : Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding 1/May - March. Stocks: Post forecasts total sugar ending stocks during MY 2012/13 at 565,000 mt, up 850,000 mt compared to the revised figure for MY 2011/12 (- 285,000 mt). Note that negative stocks have been balanced by the early start of the crushing, March/April as opposed to May. Policy: Current legislation requires gasoline sold in Brazil to have anhydrous ethanol content between 20 and 25 percent, with the executive branch having the flexibility to adjust within that band. The current blend is set at 20 percent as of October 1, 2010. Exchange Rate Exchange Rate (R$/US$1.00 - official rate, last day of period) Month 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 January 2.22 2.12 1.76 2.32 1.87 1.67 1.74 February 2.14 2.12 1.68 2.38 1.81 1.66 1.71 March 2.17 2.05 1.75 2.25 1.78 1.62 1.82 April 1/ 2.09 2.03 1.69 2.18 1.77 1.57 1.83 May 2.30 1.93 1.63 1.97 1.81 1.57 -- June 2.16 1.93 1.64 1.95 1.80 1.56 -- July 2.18 1.88 1.57 1.87 1.75 1.56 -- August 2.14 1.96 1.63 1.88 1.75 1.59 -- September 2.17 1.84 1.92 1.78 1.69 1.85 -- October 2.14 1.74 2.12 1.74 1.70 1.69 -- November 2.17 1.78 2.33 1.75 1.71 1.85 -- December 2.14 1.77 2.34 1.74 1.66 -- -- Source : Gazeta Mercantil and BACEN (as of October 2006) 1/ April 2012 refers to April 11. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Sugar Cane for Centrifugal Brazil 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 8,950 8,950 9,650 9,750 Area Harvested 8,310 8,490 8,890 9,000 Production 639,000 620,000 561,000 565,000 Total Supply 639,000 620,000 561,000 565,000 Utilization for Sugar 286,000 284,900 269,670 274,760 Utilizatn for Alcohol 353,000 335,100 291,330 290,240 Total Utilization 639,000 620,000 561,000 565,000 1000 HA, 1000 MT Sugar, Centrifugal Brazil 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: May 2010 Market Year Begin: May 2011 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks -835 -835 -285 -285 -285 Beet Sugar Production 0 0 0 0 0 Cane Sugar Production 38,350 38,350 35,750 36,150 37,800 Total Sugar Production 38,350 38,350 35,750 36,150 37,800 Raw Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Refined Imp.(Raw Val) 0 0 0 0 0 Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 37,515 37,515 35,465 35,865 37,515 Raw Exports 20,400 20,400 18,700 19,350 19,850 Refined Exp.(Raw Val) 5,400 5,400 5,100 5,300 5,400 Total Exports 25,800 25,800 23,800 24,650 25,250 Human Dom. Consumption 12,000 12,000 11,500 11,500 11,700 Other Disappearance 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 12,000 12,000 11,500 11,500 11,700 Ending Stocks -285 -285 165 -285 565 Total Distribution 37,515 37,515 35,465 35,865 37,515 1000 MT
Posted: 27 April 2012

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