Medium Term Outlook for Cdn. Agriculture

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Canada

Last updated: 22 Apr 2011

The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the MTO covering the period 2010 to 2020. The MTO is a plausible future for the international and domestic agri-food sectors based on current policies in Canada and other countries as of Fall 2010. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis.

Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture International and Domestic Markets February 2011 Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture International and Domestic Markets February 2011 For further information, please contact: Pierre Charlebois, Chief Research and Analysis Directorate Economic and Market Analysis Unit Strategic Policy Branch (613) 773-2449 or by e-mail at pierre.charlebois@agr.gc.ca Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) IMPORTANT NOTICES Copyright/Permission to Reproduce Materials in this publication were produced and/or compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada for the purpose of providing Canadians with direct access to information about the programs and services offered by the Government of Canada. The material in this publication is covered by the provisions of the Copyright Act, by Canadian laws, policies, regulations and international agreements. Such provisions serve to identify the information source and, in specific instances, to prohibit reproduction of materials without written permission. Non-commercial Reproduction Information in this publication has been provided with the intent that it be readily available for personal and public non-commercial use and may be reproduced, in part or in whole and by any means, without charge or further permission from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. We ask only that: Users exercise due diligence in ensuring the accuracy of the materials reproduced; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada be identified as the source department; and the reproduction is not represented as an official version of the materials reproduced, nor as having been made, in affiliation with or with the endorsement of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Commercial Reproduction Reproduction of multiple copies of this publication, in whole or in part, for the purposes of commercial redistribution is prohibited except with written permission from the Government of Canada's copyright administrator, Public Works and Government Services Canada (PWGSC). Through the permission granting process, PWGSC helps ensure individuals/organizations wishing to reproduce Government of Canada materials for commercial purposes have access to the most accurate, up-to-date versions. To obtain permission to reproduce materials in this publication for commercial purposes, please consult with PWGSC. Public Works and Government Services Canada Publishing and Depository Services 350 Albert Street, 4th Floor Ottawa, Ontario, CANADA K1A 0S5 Third-party Materials Some of the materials and graphical elements found in this publication are subject to copyrights held by other organizations. This is particularly true of sites that are jointly operated by a Government of Canada institution and an external organization as part of a collaborative arrangement. In such cases, some restrictions on the reproduction of materials or graphical elements may apply and it may be necessary to seek permission from the rights holder prior to reproducing the material. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2011 Publication: 11409E ISSN: 1923-0478 ISBN: 978-1-100-17988-9 Catalogue: A38-1/4-2011E-PDF Project: 11-004-r Electronic versions of Research and Analysis publications are available on the Internet at: http://www.agr.gc.ca/pol/pub Aussi disponible en français sous le titre : Les perspectives agricoles canadiennes à moyen terme 11-004-r 2 Table of contents FOREWORD 4 SUMMARY 5 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 9 Macroeconomic assumptions 11 Foreign policies 14 Biofuel markets 15 NATIONAL MARKETS 29 National assumptions 31 Crops 33 Red meats 40 Supply managed commodities 46 LIST OF ACRONYMS 52 ANNEX OF TABLES 53 11-004-r 3 Foreword ? The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) Medium Term Outlook for the international and national agricultural markets covering the 2010 to 2020 period. The outlook is an attempt to outline a plausible future of the international and domestic agri-food sectors. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. ? The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not necessarily a forecast of future events. In particular there are no assumptions made regarding the outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations and of possible future bilateral trade agreements. It also assumes no impact from climate change and from policy to mitigate climate change, nor significant animal disease outbreaks or unusual weather conditions over the period of the outlook. Finally, in the absence of a final WTO decision on the Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (MCOOL), policies currently in place are maintained throughout the baseline. ? The international outlook was produced with the 2009 version of the AGLINK/COSIMO model of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the national outlook with the AAFC Food, and Agriculture Regional Model (FARM). ? The evolution of the world crude oil price reflects mostly the outlook indicated by Natural Resources Canada in the fall of 2010. The macro-economic forecasts released by the OECD in September 2009 and by the World Bank in June 2009 were adjusted using more current information. Exchange rates were updated to reflect the information available as of September 2010. The agricultural outlook reflects short term price forecasts produced and released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in October 2010. ? The Canadian macro-economic forecasts for 2010 to 2015 are from the Conference Board of Canada outlook published in September 2010. The yearly growth rate in 2015 was maintained for each year of the period 2016 to 2020 for each macro-economic variables used in FARM. 11-004-r 4 Summary of the international markets ? The OECD as a group is recovering very slowly from the recession with an average growth rate of only 1.7% in 2010. For the rest of the outlook an average annual growth rate of 2.6% is expected. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries are still growing at rapid rate with an average of 7.6% in 2010 and an annual mean of 6.8% over the remaining years. The average growth rate of the other key countries is 3.6% in 2010 and 4.6% on average for the rest of the outlook period. ? Except for the euro, all other major currencies experienced a significant appreciation in real terms against the U.S. dollar in 2010. Considering the structural budget deficits and negative trade balance, the U.S. dollar is assumed to weaken in real terms against many currencies over the next 10 years. ? Oil prices are anticipated to increase by 30% in real terms compared to the 2008-2010 period. This will contribute to maintaining a strong Canadian dollar. ? As the ethanol industry in Brazil and the U.S. are moving toward flex-fuel cars the ethanol/gasoline price ratios will fall closer to their relative energy value. ? The world price of sugar should fall back to a more reasonable level but remain above the values recorded at the beginning of the century because of the competition for the use of cane from the ethanol industry. 11-004-r 5 Summary of the international markets (continued) ? In spite of short term fluctuations, the new higher world price plateau for cereals and oilseeds is here to stay. In absence of new weather events, prices should fall from their 2010-11 peaks in the short term. ? The growing biodiesel production resulting from the high crude oil price and the mandates and the additional demand generated from income growth in developing countries led to an increase in the world vegetable oil price in real terms. ? The debate over obesity is leading to a major collapse of the high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) industry in the U.S., freeing some corn for other uses. ? Cattle and hog prices will remain cyclical but will gradually and partially adjust to higher feed prices through a reduction in supply. ? However, because of productivity gains and changes in feeding practices (more short keep and greater use of DDG and wet DG) the livestock/feed price ratios will remain at a new lower plateau. ? Income growth of developing countries, natural resources constraints in Oceania, low export subsidies, export taxes in Argentina, high vegetable oil prices and higher feed costs all contribute to a new higher world price plateau for dairy products. This combined with a weak U.S. dollar led to the full integration of the U.S. butter and SMP industry into the world markets. 11-004-r 6 Summary of the national crop markets ? The key drivers of the Canadian crop outlook are world prices, the exchange rate and the limited growth of the red meat industry. ? 2010-11 has been very challenging for western Canadian producers due to excessive precipitation, a cold summer and excess soil moisture in most growing areas. As a result a significant portion of the western crop area was not seeded and/or suffered significant damage throughout the crop year yielding a poor harvest in quantity and/or quality. Growing conditions in eastern Canada were generally good in 2010-11. ? For the medium term, prices of grains, oilseeds and special crops are projected to be significantly higher than the period before 2006 in spite of a Canadian dollar at par with the US dollar, albeit price levels are expected to be below the peak of 2007-08. In response, total harvested area is projected to increase compared to the historical average (2005-2009). The largest increase is recorded for oilseeds followed by corn and special crops. Summer fallow area will continue to decline despite its temporary increase in 2010-11. ? Canada remains a net importer of feed grains in the short term because of excess moisture in the prairies. However, Canada returns to a net export position for feed grains in the medium term which will benefit livestock producers. ? Domestic biofuel production will count for a growing share of the targets. ? Canola crushing capacity expands significantly in the short-term and is expected to continue to expand further throughout the medium term, but strong production growth still results in large exports of canola seed. The larger use of canola oil for biodiesel production remains much smaller than the growth in canola oil production, leading to a strong increase in exports. 11-004-r 7 Summary of the national livestock markets ? Relatively high feed grain prices coupled with the implementation of MCOOL in the U.S. and the strong Canadian dollar affect the competitiveness of the Canadian red meat industry. ? In 2010, the cattle breeding herd reached its lowest level since 1997 and no increase is expected until 2012. As a result, the marketings of cattle are very low in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and start increasing again in 2015. MCOOL exerts more downward pressure on livestock prices than meat prices. As a result, a relatively larger share of cattle is diverted to domestic slaughter. ? The Federal Cull Breeding Swine Program (ended in 2009), the Hog Farm Transition and the Hog Industry Loan Loss Reserve Programs (ended in 2010), coupled with significant changes to the Québec ASRA program and relatively tight margins are all contributing to a lower swine herd in the short term. Although 2010 hog farm prices are significantly above 2009 levels, higher feed cost have kept profit margins relatively low. As a result, slaughter hog marketings will remain low in 2011 and will slightly increase in the medium term while keeping its cyclical pattern. In general the profitability of hog farming will be lower than hog processing partly because of MCOOL and this will lead to lower export of slaughter hogs compared to the historical average. ? Growth in consumption of poultry is expected to be lower with a more mature market. Following a major drop in the price of eggs in the U.S. in 2009, the levy to finance the use of Canadian eggs by the breaker industry increased significantly in 2010, and continues its upward trend over the medium term. ? Total milk production in 2010/11 is expected to be slightly higher than in the previous year. While there is growth in per capita consumption for some dairy products consumption, overall milk fat is stable limiting milk production to the growth in population. The SMP surplus still remains a deteriorating factor in the milk pool price. ? Weather events in 2010 will put upward pressures on food prices in 2011, but much less so compared to 2009, which was also affected by the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Annual change is expected to average 2% over the medium term. ? High prices of grains and oilseeds will contribute to a strong positive trade balance. 11-004-r 8 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 11-004-r 9 11-004-r 10 Macroeconomic assumptions ? The world population is expected to grow by slightly more than 1% per year over the period of the outlook. Growth in developing countries is anticipated to be three times higher than in the OECD and, as a result, the OECD?s share should fall from 18 to 16% between 2009 and 2020. ? The OECD as a group is recovering very slowly from the recession with an average growth rate of only 1.7% in 2010. For the rest of the outlook an average annual growth rate of 2.6% is expected. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries are still growing at a rapid rate with an average of 7.6% in 2010 and an annual mean of 6.8% over the remaining years. The average growth rate of the other key countries is 3.6% in 2010 and 4.6% on average for the rest of the outlook period. ? The inflation rate is in general low with an annual average of 2.1, 4.1 and 5.3% respectively for OECD, BRIC and a group of other key countries. ? The U.S. dollar depreciated in real terms against major currencies in 2010 with the exception of the euro (see next slide). Over the longer term it will continue to depreciate in real terms against the currencies of Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, China, Korea, Indonesia, India, Ukraine and Russia. It will be stable or almost stable against the currencies of Canada, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand and the European union while it will appreciate against the Japanese yen (which is very strong presently) and the south African rand. ? According to Natural Resources Canada, the international price of crude oil should increase by 48% in nominal terms between 2008 and 2030. This represents only a 4% increase in real terms. However compared to the level in 2009 it still represents a large increase and consistent with the idea that the era of cheap energy is over. 11-004-r 11 Except for the euro, all other major currencies experienced a significant appreciation in real terms against the U.S. dollar in 2010. Considering the structural budget deficits and negative trade balance, the U.S. dollar is assumed to weaken against many currencies 1 Movement in the Exchange Rates Adjusted for the Differential in Inflation Rates 20 2010 Annual average 2011-2020 15 10 5 0 -5 ARG BRA MEX CAN IND CHN JPN KOR IDN THA AUS NZL E15 RUS UKR ZAF 1 Country name abbreviations reflect those used by the United Nations. 11-004-r 12 P e r c e n t (US$/CAN$) (US$/CAN$) (US$/CAN$) Oil prices are anticipated to increase by 30% in real terms compared to the 2008-2010 period. This will contribute to maintaining a strong Canadian dollar The Relationship Between the Crude Oil Price and the Value of the Canadian Dollar e elati s i et ee t e r e il rice a t e al e f t e a a ia llar The Relationship Between the Crude Oil Price and the Value of the Canadian Dollar 140 1.20 140 1.20 140 1.20 Dollar 120 120 120 1.00 1.00 1.00 100 100 100 0.80 0.80 0.80 Brent crude oil 80 80 80 0.60 0.60 0.60 60 60 60 0.40 0.40 0.40 40 40 40 0.20 0.20 0.20 20 20 20 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 13 ( U S $ / b a r r e l ) ( U S $ / b a r r e l ) ( U S $ / b a r r e l ) Foreign policies ? The U.S. implemented MCOOL on September 30, 2008. The new U.S. Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program is in operation but the participation rate is low. ? The mandatory 10% set-aside of arable land in the European Union has been eliminated over the entire outlook period. The gradual increase and the elimination of the milk production quota in the European Union is included in the outlook. ? A tax of 35% is imposed on Argentinean oilseed exports for the duration of the outlook. ? Russian grain exports will only be affected by controls in 2010-11. ? China?s wheat and rice imports will remain much below their TRQ while oilseed imports will explode and coarse grain imports will reach 4 million tons. ? Mexican direct and Procampo payments are assumed to be stable in real terms. ? The bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea is not included. ? U.S. sugar policy remains unchanged. ? The Atlantic and Pacific red meat markets remain segmented. 11-004-r 14 Biofuel markets ? It is assumed that all the yearly renewable fuel mandates announced by the U.S. in December 2007 will be at least reached over the outlook period except the cellulosic ethanol mandate. All the other measures will not be modified. ? By 2015 the U.S. will be consuming 56.7 billion litres of corn based ethanol. The U.S. will be producing slightly more because Canada will be a net importer. ? The filling rate of the cellulosic based ethanol mandate will vary between 15 and 19%. Most of that production will be from crop residues. Ethanol from dedicated biomass like switchgrass will only start to grow after 2012 and will not use a significant amount of cereals and oilseeds area harvested. ? The bio-diesel mandate established at 3.78 billion litres will be met by 2012 and consumption will remain at that level thereafter. The mandate will be filled by local production. Tallow and inedible animal fat will never surpass 25% of the feedstock used, the rest will be coming from vegetable oils. ? By 2018, 11.3 billion litres of ethanol will also be consumed under the other advanced biofuels mandate. This mandate will mostly be filled by dehydrated Brazilian ethanol imported through the Caribbean and from production of ethanol from non-agricultural feedstock in the U.S. ? Prices of other advanced biofuels will be higher than corn based ethanol. It will, however, not be high enough to allow direct imports from Brazil since they will continue to be blocked by the large tariff. The price of cellulosic ethanol will be even higher in spite of technological progress. ? As a result of the announced increase in the maximum level of ethanol (from 10 to 15%) allowed in low blend cars, the amount of ethanol used by these cars will continue to surpass the effective mandates until 2014. ? The European Union fuel ethanol consumption should increase significantly, following the implementation of the new Renewable Energy Directive which calls for a 10% (energy basis) share of renewable energy in the transport fuel mix by 2020. They will only achieve their ethanol objective since bio-diesel will only represent 8% of diesel consumption. In both cases it still represents a large increase in consumption. ? World biofuels production should increase from 86 billion liters in 2008 to 220 in 2020. 11-004-r 15 As the ethanol industry in Brazil and the U.S. are moving toward flex-fuel car the ethanol/gasoline price ratios fall closer to their relative energy value Ethanol/Gasoline Price Ratio thanol/ asoline rice atio Ethanol/Gasoline Price Ratio 2.50 2.50 2.50 United States 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25 Brazil 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 16 E t h a n o l / G a s o l i n e P r i c e E t h a n o l / G a s o l i n e P r i c e E t h a n o l / G a s o l i n e P r i c e The world price of sugar should fall back to a more reasonable level but remain above the values recorded at the beginning of the century because of the competition for the use of cane from the ethanol industry Prices of Sugar rices of ugar Prices of Sugar 700 700 700 600 600 600 500 500 500 Refined ? London 400 400 400 300 300 300 Raw ? Caribbean 200 200 200 100 100 100 0 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 17 ( U S $ / T ) ( U S $ / T ) ( U S $ / T ) In spite of short term fluctuations, the new higher world price plateau for cereals is here to stay. In absence of weather events next year, prices should fall from their 2010-11 peaks in the short term U.S. Farm Price . . ar rice U.S. Farm Price 300 300 300 250 250 250 Wheat 200 200 200 150 Corn 150 150 100 100 100 50 50 50 0 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 18 ( U S $ / T ) ( U S $ / T ) ( U S $ / T ) The growing biodiesel production resulting from the high crude oil price and the mandates and the income growth in developing countries should lead to an increase in the world vegetable oil price in real terms. The growth in the price of the joint product, oilseed meal, is much more limited U.S. Mid-West . . id- est U.S. Mid-West 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,200 Soybean oil 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 600 600 600 400 400 400 Soybean meal 200 200 200 0 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 19 ( U S $ / T ) ( U S $ / T ) ( U S $ / T ) The increasing demand for vegetable oil and competition for land with corn push soybean prices to record levels. Through competition on both the supply and the demand side, the price of rice will also remain above the level at the beginning of the century U.S. Farm Price . . ar rice U.S. Farm Price 450 450 450 Soybean 400 400 400 350 350 350 300 300 300 Rice 250 250 250 200 200 200 150 150 150 100 100 100 50 50 50 0 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 20 ( U S $ / T ) ( U S $ / T ) ( U S $ / T ) The corn soybean price ratio continues very slowly its downward trend. The anticipated huge increase in crude oil and fertilizer prices combined with large corn based ethanol production creates a structural shift in the corn wheat price ratio U.S. Corn/Wheat and Corn/Soybean Farm Price Ratios . . r / eat a r / y ea ar rice ati s U.S. Corn/Wheat and Corn/Soybean Farm Price Ratios 1.0 1.0 1.0 Corn to wheat 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 Corn to soybean 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 21 C o r n / W h e a t a n d C o r n / S o y b e a n P r i c e C o r n / W h e a t a n d C o r n / S o y b e a n P r i c e C o r n / W h e a t a n d C o r n / S o y b e a n P r i c e The debate over obesity is leading to a major collapse of the high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) industry in the U.S., freeing some corn for other uses High Fructose Corn Sirup/Corn Price Ratio i r ct se r ir / r rice ati High Fructose Corn Sirup/Corn Price Ratio 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 22 H i g h F r u c t o s e C o r n S i r u p / C o r n P r i c e H i g h F r u c t o s e C o r n S i r u p / C o r n P r i c e H i g h F r u c t o s e C o r n S i r u p / C o r n P r i c e Livestock prices will remain cyclical but will gradually and partially adjust to higher feed prices through a reduction in supply USA Livestock Prices Livestock rices USA Livestock Prices 450 450 450 400 400 400 Steers 350 350 350 300 300 300 250 250 250 200 200 200 150 150 Hogs 150 100 100 100 50 50 50 0 0 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 11-004-r 23 ( U S $ / 1 0 0 k g d w ) ( U S $ / 1 0 0 k g d w ) ( U S $ / 1 0 0 k g d w ) However, because of productivity gains and changes in feeding practices (more short keep and greater use of DDG and wet DG) the price ratios will remain at a new lower plateau Livestock Price/Feed Price Ratio Livestock rice/Feed rice atio Livestock Price/Feed Price Ratio 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 Steers 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 Hogs 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 11-004-r 24 L i v e s t o c k / F e e d P r i c e L i v e s t o c k / F e e d P r i c e L i v e s t o c k / F e e d P r i c e Because of productivity gains and changes in feeding practices, the U.S. milk to feed price ratio will remain at a new lower plateau. Productivity gains will lead to similar results for the feather industries Livestock Price/Feed Price Ratio Livestock rice/Feed rice atio Livestock Price/Feed Price Ratio 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 Brazilian chicken 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.50 U.S. eggs 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 U.S. milk 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 25 L i v e s t o c k / F e e d P r i c e L i v e s t o c k / F e e d P r i c e L i v e s t o c k / F e e d P r i c e Income growth of developing countries, natural resources constraints in Oceania, low export subsidies, export taxes in Argentina, high vegetable oil prices and higher feed costs all contribute to a new higher world price plateau for dairy products Oceania Price 500 450 Cheese 400 Butter 350 SMP 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 11-004-r 26 ( U S $ / 1 0 0 k g ) The high world prices of raw dairy products combined with a weak U.S. dollar should lead to the full integration of this U.S. industry into the world markets U.S. Price/World Price Ratios . . rice/ rl rice ati s U.S. Price/World Price Ratios 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.25 Butter 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 Skim milk powder 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 11-004-r 27 U . S . / W o r l d P r i c e f o r B u t t e r a n d S M P U . S . / W o r l d P r i c e f o r B u t t e r a n d S M P U . S . / W o r l d P r i c e f o r B u t t e r a n d S M P In general, the price of raw dairy products (butter/SMP) will fall relative to cheese and WMP World Dairy Products Price Ratio orld airy roducts rice atio World Dairy Products Price Ratio 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.00 1.00 Butter-SMP/WMP 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 Butter-SMP/Cheese 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.50 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 11-004-r 28 W o r l d D a i r y P r o d u c t s P r i c e W o r l d D a i r y P r o d u c t s P r i c e W o r l d D a i r y P r o d u c t s P r i c e NATIONAL MARKETS 11-004-r 29 11-004-r 30 National assumptions ? The Canadian population is projected to increase by 1.2% per year. ? Yields for grains and oilseeds are generally expected to increase at trend rates. ? It is assumed that Federal regulations requiring an annual average renewable content of 5% in gasoline by 2010 and 2% in diesel fuel and heating oil by 2012 will be implemented. ? The cap on the number of animals covered under the hog stabilization program (ASRA) announced by Quebec in 2010 is included in the Outlook. ? The increases in the price of industrial milk will be equally distributed between the support price of butter and skim milk powder. ? The fat/solids-not-fat ratio for raw milk should be relatively stable as measures implemented by producers are maintained. 11-004-r 31 National assumptions: Macroeconomic outlook Year-to-Year Change in CPI and Real GDP ear-to- ear hange in I and eal Year-to-Year Change in CPI and Real GDP 6 6 6 CPI I CPI 5 5 5 GDP GDP 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 32 P e r c e n t P e r c e n t P e r c e n t Domestic crop prices do not increase as much as international prices because of the strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar but remain above pre-2006 levels Crop Prices in Canada 600 Canola 500 400 300 Wheat 200 Barley Corn 100 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 33 $ / t High grain and oilseed price plateaus are expected to result in a modest expansion of total area harvested throughout the outlook. Relative prices should lead to larger harvests of canola, soybeans and corn Difference in Area Harvested Between the Average of 2005-2009 and 2020 ifference in rea arvested et een the verage of 2005-2009 and 2020 Difference in Area Harvested Between the Average of 2005-2009 and 2020 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 -10 -10 -10 -20 -20 -20 -30 -30 -30 -40 -40 -40 Total Hay Fallow Wheat Barley Soybeans Corn Oats Special Canola Total ay Fallo heat arley oybeans orn ats pecial a la Total Hay Fallow Wheat Barley Soybeans Corn Oats Special Canola Crops rops Crops 11-004-r 34 P e r c e n t P e r c e n t P e r c e n t Feed/Livestock ratio Feed/Livestock ratio Feed/Livestock ratio The growth in feed demand will be mostly met by greater use of coarse grains. Productivity gains in feed conversion are expected to improve modestly Feed Demand Feed e and Feed Demand 30 8 30 8 30 8 Feed/Livestock 7 7 7 25 25 25 DDG 6 6 6 Protein 20 20 20 5 5 5 Wheat 15 4 15 4 15 4 3 3 3 10 10 10 Coarse Grain 2 2 2 5 5 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 35 F e e d g r a i n c o n s u m p t i o n ( M i l l i o n t o n n e s ) F e e d g r a i n c o n s u m p t i o n ( M i l l i o n t o n n e s ) F e e d g r a i n c o n s u m p t i o n ( M i l l i o n t o n n e s ) In the short term, the reduction in production resulting from the excess moisture in the prairies is reflected in lower wheat exports. However, in the medium term, strong wheat prices support growth in wheat production, resulting in increased wheat exports in spite of increasing use for ethanol Wheat Exports and Utilization eat x rts a tilizati Wheat Exports and Utilization 25 25 25 20 20 20 Exports 15 15 15 10 10 10 Ethanol Food 5 5 5 Other Feed 0 0 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 36 M i l l i o n t o n n e s M i l l i o n t o n n e s M i l l i o n t o n n e s Domestic biofuel production will count for a growing share of the mandates Biofuels Production and Net Trade i f els r cti a et ra e Biofuels Production and Net Trade 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,000 3,000 3,000 Biodiesel net imports 2,500 2,500 2,500 Production of biodiesel 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 Production of ethanol 1,000 1,000 1,000 500 500 500 Ethanol net imports 0 0 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 37 M i l l i o n l i t r e s M i l l i o n l i t r e s M i l l i o n l i t r e s The large increase in canola production resulting from a relatively high price will be sufficient to allow significant increase in crushing and exports Canola Exports and Utilization a la x rts a tilizati Canola Exports and Utilization 9 9 9 8 8 8 Crush Exports 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 Other use 0 0 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 38 M i l l i o n t o n n e s M i l l i o n t o n n e s M i l l i o n t o n n e s Net trade (Million tonnes) Net trade (Million tonnes) Net trade (Million tonnes) Apart from 2010-11 due to the excess moisture in the prairies, Canada should generate a surplus of feed grains which will result in an export price basis and increased competitiveness for Canadian livestock producers Feed Grain Market Feed rain arket Feed Grain Market 1.4 8 1.4 8 1.4 8 Net exports et exports Net exports Corn price ratio orn price ratio Corn price ratio 1.3 6 1.3 6 1.3 6 Barley price ratio arley price ratio Barley price ratio 1.2 4 1.2 4 1.2 4 1.1 2 1.1 2 1.1 2 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 0 0.9 -2 0.9 -2 0.9 -2 0.8 -4 0.8 -4 0.8 -4 0.7 -6 0.7 -6 0.7 -6 0.6 -8 0.6 -8 0.6 -8 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 11-004-r 39 R a t i o ( C d n . p r i c e a n d U S c o r n p r i c e ) R a t i o ( C d n . p r i c e a n d U S c o r n p r i c e ) R a t i o ( C d n . p r i c e a n d U S c o r n p r i c e ) The marketing of slaughter cattle will increase more than the breeding herd because feeder cattle exports will be lower than the historical peak Cattle Market attle arket Cattle Market 6,000 6,000 6,000 Breeding herd 5,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 Net cattle exports 4,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 Cattle slaughter 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 11-004-r 40 ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s The expected feed grain surplus will lead to higher exports of slaughter cattle versus feeder cattle. However, the total number of cattle exported remain below historical levels Net Cattle Exports et attle x rts Net Cattle Exports 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 Net export of 800 800 slaughter cattle 600 600 600 400 400 400 200 200 200 Net export of feeder cattle 0 0 0 -200 -200 -200 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 11-004-r 41 ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s As domestic beef consumption remains relatively stable, the increase in cattle slaughter and in average weight in the medium term leads to an increase in beef exports Beef Market eef arket Beef Market 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,200 Net exports 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 600 600 600 Canadian beef disappearance 400 400 400 200 200 200 0 0 0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 11-004-r 42 k t k t k t '000 head '000 head '000 head Margins will continue to be cyclical in the hog industry but from a lower base and this will limit growth of total marketings of slaughter hogs and weanlings The Canadian Hog Market e a a ia arket The Canadian Hog Market 60 32,500 60 32,500 60 32,500 Marketings of hogs and weanlings 50 50 50 27,500 27,500 27,500 40 40 40 22,500 22,500 22,500 30 30 30 17,500 17,500 20 17,500 20 20 10 10 10 12,500 12,500 12,500 Price ? cash cost 0 0 0 7,500 7,500 7,500 -10 -10 -10 2,500 2,500 2,500 -20 -20 -20 -30 -2,500 -30 -2,500 -30 -2,500 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 43 $ / c k g d w $ / c k g d w $ / c k g d w MCOOL and the strong Canadian dollar are leading to a large decline in slaughter hog and weanling exports. Because of the feed grain surplus, the share of slaughter hogs will increase compared to the 2009 and 2010 levels Slaughter Hog and Weanling Exports la ter a ea li x rts Slaughter Hog and Weanling Exports 8,000 8,000 8,000 Slaughter hogs la ter s Slaughter hogs 7,000 7,000 7,000 Weaners eaners Weaners 6,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 44 ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s ' 0 0 0 h e a d s With a 8% drop in 2010, the negative trend in per capita pork consumption continues. This combined to larger production results in higher exports Pork Market rk arket Pork Market 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,400 Exports 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 600 600 600 400 400 Canadian pork 400 disappearance 200 200 200 0 0 0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 11-004-r 45 k t k t k t Growth in poultry consumption is expected to be similar to the previous decade since the market is more mature and poultry prices are expected to increase relative to substitute meats Yearly Average Increase in Consumption early verage Increase in onsu ption Yearly Average Increase in Consumption 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-20 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-20 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-20 11-004-r 46 P e r c e n t c h a n g e P e r c e n t c h a n g e P e r c e n t c h a n g e Following a major increase in the price of eggs in the U.S. in 2008, Canadian authorities were able to substantially reduce the levy in 2009. With a more normal price level in the U.S. in the medium term, the Canadian levy should return to its upward trend Egg Levy evy Egg Levy 35 35 35 30 30 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 47 C e n t s / D o z e n C e n t s / D o z e n C e n t s / D o z e n With moderate increases in Canadian prices of dairy products, the tariff should prevent over- quota imports because high world prices will more than offset the impact of a strong Canadian dollar SMP Prices Butter Prices rices utter rices SMP Prices Butter Prices 14 18 14 18 14 18 Import 16 16 16 12 12 12 14 14 14 10 10 Import 10 12 12 12 8 8 10 8 10 10 Canadian Canadian 8 8 6 8 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 World World 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 11-004-r 48 C A N $ / k g C A N $ / k g C A N $ / k g C A N $ / k g C A N $ / k g C A N $ / k g Since the Canadian dairy market is mature and characterized by an aging population, per capita consumption of all dairy products (except for yogurt ) will either continue to fall or increase less rapidly Per Capita Consumption Index 3.5 Yogurt 3.0 2.5 2.0 Cream 1.5 Cheese 1.0 Fluid Milk Butter 0.5 Ice Cream 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 11-004-r 49 ( 1 9 9 5 = 1 ) Weather events in 2010 will put upward pressure on food prices in 2011 but much less so than in 2009, which was also affected by the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Annual change is expected to average 2% over the medium term Annual Change in the Food CPI al a e i t e I Annual Change in the Food CPI 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 50 P e r c e n t P e r c e n t P e r c e n t High prices of grains and oilseeds will contribute to a strong positive trade balance Trade of Agricultural and Agri-food Commodities ra e f ric lt ral a ri-f ities Trade of Agricultural and Agri-food Commodities 50 50 50 45 45 45 Exports x rts Exports 40 40 Trade balance 40 ra e ala ce Trade balance Imports I rts Imports 35 35 35 30 30 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11-004-r 51 B i l l i o n o f C A N $ B i l l i o n o f C A N $ B i l l i o n o f C A N $ List of acronyms AAFC Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada ACRE Average Crop Revenue Election AGLINK/COSIMO The OECD/FAO international agricultural markets model ASRA Farm Income Stabilization Insurance Program (Financière agricole du Québec) BSE Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (a.k.a. Mad Cow Disease) CKG 100 kilograms MCOOL Country of Origin Labeling (U.S. acronym COOL) CWT 100 pounds DDG Distillers? dried grains DW Dressed weight FAO Food and Agriculture Organization (United Nations) FARM Food and Agriculture Regional Model GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund LW Live weight OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development SMP Skim Milk Powder USDA United States Department of Agriculture WMP Whole Milk Powder WTO World Trade Organization 11-004-r 52 ANNEX OF TABLES 11-004-r 53 11-004-r 54 TABLE 1: International prices Table 1: International prices Average %Chg. 2020: Average 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2020 Crops Wheat Price, 1HRW, US Gulf (US$/t) 181.8 213.6 363.0 257.5 197.8 221.0 212.5 195.4 211.5 235.7 232.6 217.6 216.1 228.2 233.5 232.6 242.8 -4.2% 0.5% Wheat Price, 1HAD, Minneapolis (US$/t) 127.1 162.8 363.7 340.2 213.1 238.1 228.9 210.5 227.8 253.9 250.5 234.4 232.8 245.9 251.6 250.6 241.4 3.8% 0.5% PPI of flour, USA (1982=100) 139.8 149.8 201.3 185.2 170.3 185.1 182.0 174.5 182.2 193.4 192.4 186.0 185.7 191.5 194.2 194.0 169.3 14.6% 0.5% 1 PPI of bakery & pasta, USA (1982=100) 201.1 207.7 216.6 237.5 245.8 249.9 256.4 259.4 262.9 268.8 273.6 275.4 276.8 279.6 282.9 284.9 221.7 28.5% 1.3% Barley Price, 2 Feed, Portland (US$/t) 119.7 178.3 287.9 187.7 153.9 197.3 177.2 158.6 170.6 185.2 178.2 166.8 166.9 169.6 170.8 170.0 185.5 -8.4% -1.5% Corn, No. 2 Yellow, Central Illinois (US$/t) 87.0 138.5 201.9 154.2 145.4 198.8 178.6 159.8 171.9 186.6 179.6 168.1 168.2 170.9 172.1 171.3 145.4 17.8% -1.5% Soybean Price, Central Illinois (US$/t) 212.9 265.6 461.4 383.1 361.8 403.0 344.5 380.4 398.4 398.8 413.1 421.2 417.0 428.6 426.2 427.2 337.0 26.8% 0.6% Soymeal Price, Decatur (US$/t) 191.9 226.5 368.5 363.3 364.3 364.7 309.6 344.5 358.8 355.9 363.6 367.6 364.5 376.0 369.3 367.3 302.9 21.3% 0.1% Soyoil Price, Decatur (US$/t) 515.6 659.3 1130.1 738.3 777.3 874.2 839.7 887.2 921.7 939.2 967.7 991.2 999.9 1019.7 1052.5 1077.9 764.1 41.1% 2.1% Refined Sugar Price, London (US$/t) 404.5 328.6 342.7 416.0 573.4 596.1 509.8 445.1 407.6 399.2 408.2 421.9 435.7 452.0 462.3 465.2 413.0 12.6% -2.4% Livestock Slaughter Steer Price, Nebraska (US$/cwt lw) 87.3 85.4 91.8 92.3 82.7 92.8 98.8 94.9 100.1 104.0 102.8 97.3 92.3 91.9 97.0 99.9 87.9 13.6% 0.7% Feeder Calf Price, Oklahoma (US$/cwt lw) 118.3 114.3 112.3 105.3 101.9 112.9 113.3 112.5 116.4 117.2 114.6 109.8 105.1 104.3 109.3 113.0 110.4 2.4% 0.0% Commercial cows, Sioux Falls (US$/cwt lw) 56.6 52.1 49.6 60.1 47.2 54.5 56.5 55.3 58.4 60.0 58.8 55.5 52.3 52.0 55.5 57.9 53.1 9.0% 0.6% Wholesale of hide, Central USA (US$/cwt) 44.6 47.3 52.8 50.2 31.3 44.5 45.3 45.6 45.8 46.1 46.5 46.7 46.9 47.1 47.3 47.5 45.2 5.0% 0.6% Wholesale boxed beef choice, 145.8 146.8 149.8 153.2 140.8 154.9 167.6 161.4 169.9 176.4 174.9 166.6 159.1 158.9 167.5 172.6 147.3 17.2% 1.1% Central US (US$/cwt) Wholesale canner-cutter cows, Central US (US$/cwt) 97.0 92.3 94.6 98.6 91.2 99.6 102.5 100.1 105.5 108.0 105.9 100.2 94.8 94.3 100.5 104.7 94.8 10.5% 0.5% Barrow & Gilt, Iowa, (US$/cwt lw) 50.1 47.3 47.1 47.8 41.2 56.3 59.4 54.0 50.7 54.2 69.0 66.0 52.8 55.4 63.6 66.0 46.7 41.4% 1.6% Wholesale price of pork, US (US$/cwt) 86.7 82.9 81.9 82.2 68.5 97.9 85.3 79.4 75.7 79.4 95.3 92.1 78.3 81.2 90.0 92.8 80.4 15.3% -0.5% Butter Price, FOB Oceania (US$/t) 213 177 294 365 235 394 367 365 360 370 369 366 364 364 373 381 256.8 48.2% -0.3% Skim Milk Powder Price, FOB Oceania (US$/t) 222 221 432 333 228 312 292 293 295 299 297 297 297 300 303 304 287.2 5.9% -0.3% Cheddar Cheese Price, FOB Oceania (US$/100 kg) 284 268 402 468 284 379 372 372 378 389 389 388 387 390 400 408 341.2 19.5% 0.7% Biofuels Ethanol Price, US (US$/hl) 47.6 68.2 59.2 65.3 47.2 49.5 60.6 59.2 60.7 64.5 64.8 61.9 61.8 62.5 64.7 64.9 57.5 12.8% 2.7% Ethanol Price, Brazil (US$/hl) 35 46 41 46 43 56 55 51 49 49 49 52 53 56 59 59 42.2 40.2% 0.6% Biodiesel Price, Central Europe (US$/hl) 87 93 103 145 107 126 120 131 137 141 147 150 152 155 159 159 106.7 48.6% 2.3% Historical Data Sources: AAFC FARM database; Forecast Data Source: OECD-FAO Outlook Notes: 1. Calendar year basis. 11-004-r 55 TABLE 2: Canadian macroeconomy Table 2: Canadian macroeconomy Average %Chg. 2020: Average 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2020 Popu .4 33.8 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.4 35.9 36.3 36.7 37.1 37.5 38.0 38.4 33.1 16.2% 1.2%lation (mil) 32.4 32.7 33.0 33 Gross Domest 1289151.8 33.0% 2.6%ic Product (mil 2002$) 1247807 1283033 1311260 1318055 1285604 1324572 1358334 1398271 1442714 1482539 1518828 1556004 1594091 1633109 1673083 1714035 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% 0.5% -2.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% GDP Deflator (2002=100) 110.1 113.0 116.6 121.4 118.8 122.5 125.5 128.3 130.6 133.0 135.3 137.7 140.2 142.7 145.2 147.8 116.0 27.4% 1.9% 3.3% 2.7% 3.2% 4.0% -2.1% 3.1% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Per Capita Disposable Income ($) 24550 26099 27284 28389 28529 29395 30142 31191 32198 33135 34072 35037 36029 37050 38099 39177 26970.3 45.3% 2.9% 3.4% 6.3% 4.5% 4.0% 0.5% 3.0% 2.5% 3.5% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Average Weekly Wages ($) 685.9 709.9 733.7 763.1 781.8 795.9 815.7 839.0 862.4 885.0 907.1 928.8 951.1 973.9 997.3 1021.3 734.9 39.0% 2.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.3% 4.0% 2.4% 1.8% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% Consumer Price Indices All Items 107.0 109.1 111.5 114.1 114.4 116.5 119.2 121.9 124.4 127.0 129.8 132.5 135.3 138.2 141.1 144.0 111.2 29.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 0.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% Non-food, Non-energy 105.3 106.9 109.0 110.3 111.5 111.8 114.3 117.1 119.6 122.1 124.8 127.5 130.3 133.2 135.9 138.9 108.6 28.0% 2.2% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 1.2% 1.1% 0.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% Energy 126.3 132.8 135.9 149.3 129.2 137.2 140.0 142.8 145.6 148.5 151.5 154.5 157.6 160.8 164.0 167.3 134.7 24.2% 2.0% 9.7% 5.2% 2.3% 9.8% -13.5% 6.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Food 106.4 108.9 111.8 115.7 121.4 123.1 126.4 128.7 131.2 134.0 137.0 139.8 142.0 144.7 148.0 150.7 112.8 33.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 3.5% 4.9% 1.4% 2.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% 1.8% Industrial Product Price Indices Petroleum & Coal 199.91 218.06 230.38 289.48 208.55 230.93 236.29 248.99 263.36 280.96 299.95 306.23 312.60 323.99 340.75 345.98 229.3 50.9% 4.1% 23.6% 9.1% 5.7% 25.7% -28.0% 10.7% 2.3% 5.4% 5.8% 6.7% 6.8% 2.1% 2.1% 3.6% 5.2% 1.5% Wood 78.45 72.29 66.80 63.39 63.53 64.44 65.29 66.74 67.85 68.92 69.88 70.84 71.82 72.81 73.82 74.84 68.9 8.6% 1.5% -10.5% -7.9% -7.6% -5.1% 0.2% 1.4% 1.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Autos & Parts 94.04 88.10 83.48 83.25 88.84 83.69 85.29 87.01 88.76 90.46 92.10 93.77 95.46 97.19 98.95 100.74 87.5 15.1% 1.9% -6.1% -6.3% -5.2% -0.3% 6.7% -5.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Machinery 112.94 111.10 108.93 111.04 117.02 115.62 115.05 115.14 116.24 117.95 119.64 120.77 121.90 123.04 124.20 125.37 112.2 11.7% 0.8% 1.3% -1.6% -2.0% 1.9% 5.4% -1.2% -0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Interest Rates (%) Prime Lending Rate 4.4 5.8 6.1 4.7 2.4 2.5 3.8 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.7 27.9% 9.3% Exchange Rate $Cdn./$U.S. 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.07 1.14 1.04 1.01 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.1 -10.1% -0.2% $U.S./$Cdn. 0.83 0.88 0.93 0.94 0.88 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.9 11.0% 0.2% Average Gra 38.7 39.2 39.7 40.2 40.7 41.2 41.7 42.2 42.7 37.7 13.2% 1.3%in Freight Rate, Mid prairies to port ($/t) 35.1 38.1 42.0 36.3 37.2 37.7 38.2 W. TEXAS INT. OIL PRICE US$ per barrel 56.47 66.08 72.26 99.68 61.66 78.50 83.01 90.03 96.50 103.52 111.21 114.10 117.05 122.36 130.26 132.74 71.2 86.4% 5.4% Historical Data Sources: Statistics Canada - CANSIM; Conference Board of Canada - Medium Term Forecast Forecast Data Source: Conference Board of Canada - Extrapolation of Medium Term Forecast 11-004-r 56 TABLE 3: Canadian grain and oilseed summary (crop year) Table 3: Canadian grain and oilseed summary (crop year) Average %Chg. 2020: Average 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2020 Crop Area Harvested (Mha) 37.23 37.38 37.94 38.09 36.53 36.36 38.15 38.22 38.28 38.35 38.42 38.48 38.55 38.61 38.68 38.75 37.4 3.5% 0.6% Wheat 9.4 9.7 8.6 10.0 9.6 8.3 9.2 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.5 3.2% 1.7% 1 Coarse Grains 6.24 6.11 7.39 6.33 5.20 4.60 6.43 6.43 6.35 6.22 6.54 6.37 6.22 6.23 6.26 6.23 6.3 -0.3% 3.1% 2 Oilseeds 7.07 7.22 7.97 8.32 8.11 8.34 9.88 9.12 9.08 9.16 8.92 9.24 9.68 9.77 9.79 9.81 7.7 26.7% 1.6% 3 Special Crops (Western Canada) 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 9.9% -0.7% Hay (Seeded Area) 8.2 8.7 8.2 8.2 8.2 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 -3.6% 0.8% Summerfallow 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.5 4.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.1 -32.2% -7.8% Production, Domestic Use & Export Summary (Mt) Wheat Production 25.7 25.3 20.1 28.6 26.8 22.6 25.0 26.2 26.1 26.6 27.1 27.2 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.7 25.3 13.3% 2.4% Domestic Use 8.30 8.70 6.68 7.89 7.21 7.89 8.72 8.86 8.92 8.93 8.88 8.99 9.07 8.95 8.94 9.02 7.8 16.3% 1.4% Exports 15.7 19.4 15.9 18.6 18.5 17.5 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.1 17.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.5 17.6 10.7% 1.1% 1 Coarse Grains Production 24.94 23.14 27.84 27.18 22.48 21.33 27.27 27.18 27.14 26.93 28.10 27.80 27.61 27.95 28.12 28.15 25.1 12.1% 2.8% Domestic Use 20.80 22.49 21.98 20.81 20.20 20.75 21.38 20.78 20.91 21.19 21.44 21.63 21.77 22.03 22.39 22.63 21.3 6.5% 0.9% Exports 5.22 4.81 7.82 5.23 4.46 4.23 4.72 6.09 6.48 6.41 6.73 6.23 6.01 5.95 6.06 6.03 5.5 9.3% 3.6% 2 Oilseeds Production 13.63 13.45 12.93 16.84 16.85 15.36 18.04 17.01 17.35 17.80 17.62 18.61 19.86 20.42 20.83 21.21 14.7 43.9% 3.3% Domestic Use 5.93 6.22 6.29 6.52 6.71 8.57 8.64 8.82 8.86 8.89 9.06 9.32 9.64 10.00 10.40 10.81 6.3 70.6% 2.3% Exports 7.26 7.90 8.04 10.43 10.05 8.66 8.85 9.37 8.92 9.09 9.24 9.84 10.56 10.80 10.88 10.88 8.7 24.6% 2.3% Historical Data Sources: Statistics Canada - CANSIM Notes: 1. Coarse Grains consists of Barley, Corn, Oats, Rye and Mixed Grains. 2. Oilseeds consists of Canola, Soybeans and Flaxseed 3. Special Crops consists of Canary Seed, Mustard Seed, Lentils, Dry Peas, Sunflower and Chickpeas. 11-004-r 57 TABLE 4: Canadian wheat (crop year) Table 4: Canadian wheat (crop year) Average %Chg. 2020: Average 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2020 All Wheat Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 9.4 9.7 8.6 10.0 9.6 8.3 9.2 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.5 3.2% 1.7% Yield (t/ha) 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 10.2% 0.7% Production 25.7 25.3 20.1 28.6 26.8 22.6 25.0 26.2 26.1 26.6 27.1 27.2 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.7 25.3 13.3% 2.4% Food Use 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 9.9% 1.2% Use for Ethanol 0.18 0.41 0.39 0.65 0.74 0.85 0.99 1.35 1.46 1.48 1.47 1.48 1.48 1.49 1.48 1.49 0.5 213.6% 5.7% Feed Use 4.1 4.4 2.4 3.5 2.9 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 0.0% 0.3% Other Domestic Use 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 -3.1% 0.3% Exports 15.7 19.4 15.9 18.6 18.5 17.5 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.1 17.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.5 17.6 10.7% 1.1% Ending Stocks 9.70 6.87 4.41 6.55 7.82 5.20 5.32 5.86 5.83 5.83 5.98 6.30 6.43 6.50 6.63 6.84 7.1 -3.2% 2.8% 1 CWB Final Price, #1 CWRS ($/t) 186.3 208.9 369.0 302.0 220.0 232.0 218.7 200.2 217.5 244.1 241.9 226.6 225.1 237.5 242.9 242.0 257.2 -5.9% 0.4% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 88.2 113.4 193.7 186.7 134.8 148.7 136.6 120.1 134.1 156.0 153.3 139.5 137.5 147.3 151.1 149.5 143.4 4.3% 0.1% Milling Price ($/t) 219.8 234.8 430.5 337.4 251.5 278.5 262.2 239.5 260.8 293.4 290.7 271.9 270.1 285.3 291.9 290.7 294.8 -1.4% 0.4% Durum Wheat Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 2.3 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.1 14.0% 6.6% Yield (t/ha) 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 10.6% 0.5% Production 5.9 3.3 3.7 5.5 5.4 3.0 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 4.8 25.2% 7.2% Food & Industrial Use 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 17.9% 0.9% Other Domestic Use 0.61 0.63 0.72 0.56 0.52 0.61 0.73 0.72 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.6 27.3% 2.5% Exports 4.3 4.5 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.6 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 3.9 25.3% 3.0% Ending Stocks 3.3 1.3 0.8 1.9 2.7 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 -23.2% 2.5% 1 CWB Final Price, #1 CWAD ($/t) 188.5 223.2 510.0 373.0 197.0 277.4 256.0 237.8 254.9 281.1 278.9 263.8 262.4 274.6 279.9 278.9 298.3 -6.5% 0.1% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 82.0 104.1 250.2 208.8 147.9 176.2 158.4 143.1 156.0 176.3 173.8 161.0 159.1 168.2 171.7 170.2 158.6 7.3% -0.3% Historical Data Sources: Statistics Canada - Cereals & Oilseeds Review, Catalogue 22-007; Statistics Canada - CANSIM; Statistics Canada - Farm Product Price Book; Canadian Wheat Board - Annual Report; Canada Grain Council - Statistical Handbook; GRIP calculations Note: 1. Prior to 1995 CWB Final Prices are basis Thunder Bay, thereafter basis St. Lawrence 11-004-r 58 TABLE 5: Canadian coarse grains (crop year) Table 5: Canadian coarse grains (crop year) Average %Chg. 2020: Average 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2020 Barley Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 3.6 3.2 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 -0.3% 3.7% Yield (t/ha) 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 7.4% 0.5% Production 11.7 9.6 11.0 11.8 9.5 7.6 10.5 10.7 11.3 10.9 11.8 11.4 11.2 11.2 11.5 11.5 10.7 7.5% 4.3% Feed Use 8.4 8.8 6.6 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.8 1.3% 1.1% Other Domestic Use 0.50 0.58 0.49 0.47 0.39 0.39 0.43 0.44 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.49 0.5 0.8% 2.3% Exports 3.0 2.0 3.9 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.7 16.6% 5.8% Ending Stocks 3.3 1.5 1.6 2.8 2.6 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.4 22.5% 11.2% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 65.4 106.3 167.4 195.6 146.9 148.1 136.7 97.5 103.0 125.7 116.1 103.5 103.2 106.9 107.1 105.7 136.3 -22.5% -3.3% Off-Board Barley Price, Lethbridge ($/t) 109.6 165.1 214.0 178.6 153.0 182.5 174.9 144.3 150.1 177.5 170.5 159.9 161.2 165.2 165.5 163.9 164.1 -0.1% -1.1% 1 CWB Final Price, Select CW 2Row ($/t) 168.5 202.0 299.6 254.0 253.0 255.8 245.3 207.0 213.4 237.0 228.3 216.6 217.2 221.8 222.9 222.4 235.4 -5.5% -1.4% Corn Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 19.0% 1.4% Yield (t/ha) 8.6 8.5 8.5 9.1 8.4 9.1 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.6 5.2% -0.1% Production 9.3 9.0 11.6 10.6 9.6 11.0 11.9 11.6 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.5 12.5 10.0 25.1% 1.3% Imports 1.9 2.1 3.2 1.9 2.1 1.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 2.2 -44.6% -3.5% West 0.7 0.7 2.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 -65.7% -5.8% East 1.19 1.39 0.89 0.98 1.42 1.11 0.49 0.57 0.62 0.63 0.77 0.76 0.57 0.46 0.71 0.87 1.2 -25.5% -2.4% Feed Use 8.5 8.5 10.2 7.6 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.5 -5.1% 0.2% West 0.8 0.9 2.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 -34.7% 0.4% East 7.7 7.5 7.9 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 -0.8% 0.2% Use for Ethanol 0.45 0.98 1.45 2.36 2.51 2.76 2.72 2.75 2.89 2.95 2.95 3.01 3.00 3.12 3.26 3.34 1.5 116.1% 1.9% Other Domestic Use 1.40 1.55 1.69 1.33 0.99 1.53 1.53 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.4 10.9% 0.1% Exports 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 6.3% -2.2% Ending Stocks 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.0% 1.9% Elevator Price, Chatham ($/t) 96.3 138.0 180.0 167.0 144.0 187.4 164.2 145.2 158.2 174.2 169.0 157.7 156.5 158.3 161.3 161.7 145.1 11.5% -1.5% Oats Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 -11.8% 3.9% Yield (t/ha) 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 7.9% 0.7% Production 3.3 3.9 4.7 4.3 2.9 2.3 4.4 4.4 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 -3.8% 4.7% Feed Use 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 -19.6% 1.0% Exports 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 4.3% 2.7% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 119.6 149.8 176.5 163.8 150.3 154.0 161.2 148.5 155.5 166.2 160.0 150.0 148.4 148.7 147.9 145.7 152.0 -4.1% -0.6% Rye Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -26.4% 0.6% Yield (t/ha) 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 3.3% 0.8% Production 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -23.9% 1.4% Exports 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -35.2% -1.0% Historical Data Sources: Statistics Canada - Cereals & Oilseeds Review, Catalogue 22-007; Statistics Canada - CANSIM; Statistics Canada - Farm Product Price Book; Canadian Wheat Board - Annual Report; Canada Grain Council - Statistical Handbook; GRIP calculations Note: 1. Prior to 1995 CWB Final Prices are basis Thunder Bay, thereafter basis St. Lawrence 11-004-r 59 TABLE 6: Canadian oilseeds (crop year) Table 6: Canadian oilseeds (crop year) Average %Chg. 2020: Average 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2005-2009 2005-2009 growth rate Average 2010-2020 Canola Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 5.2 5.2 6.3 6.5 6.1 6.5 7.6 7.0 6.9 7.0 6.8 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.5 5.9 27.6% 1.4% Yield (t/ha) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.8 15.6% 2.4% Production 9.5 9.0 9.6 12.6 12.4 10.8 13.4 12.6 12.7 13.1 12.8 13.6 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 10.6 47.3% 3.8% Crushings 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.8 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.6 8.0 4.0 97.0% 2.9% Meal Production 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 2.4 91.7% 3.0% Oil Production 1.51.61.71.82.12.62.72.72.72.72.82.93.03.23.43.51.7 102.9% 3.0% Seed Exports 5.4 5.5 5.7 7.9 7.2 5.6 6.2 6.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.4 6.3 17.4% 2.8% Ending Stocks 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.1 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 -5.9% 4.4% Canola Oil Food Use 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.3% 0.4% Canola Oil Biodiesel Use 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 1782.8% 15.8% Canola Oil Exports 1.1.31.31.51.82.2.2.32.32.2.32.42.52.62.82.91.4 108.% 2.8% Canola Meal Feed Use 0.53 0.62 0.65 0.63 0.72 0.64 0.63 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.6 17.0% 1.4% Canola Meal Exports 1.51.51.91.91.92.72.82.92.82.82.93.03.23.43.63.81.7 120.2% 3.% Canola Cash Price, #1 Vancouver ($/t) 278.0 370.0 553.5 467.0 426.2 442.8 388.2 416.2 436.3 443.5 460.7 470.4 468.0 478.6 481.9 486.4 418.9 16.1% 0.9% Farm Gate Price, Prairies ($/t) 252.1 330.0 465.2 451.0 408.9 424.4 363.3 393.2 414.4 421.3 439.1 448.9 445.3 455.9 458.6 462.6 381.4 21.3% 0.9% 1 Canola Meal Price ($/t) 156.8 167.1 247.8 263.6 212.3 207.8 173.5 192.4 205.7 209.8 215.6 216.5 211.7 214.6 205.9 200.1 209.5 -4.5% -0.4% 1 Canola Oil Price ($/t) 638.1 787.9 1241.1 918.4 864.8 891.6 838.6 880.1 919.9 946.4 978.9 1002.8 1011.5 1031.6 1064.8 1090.5 890.0 22.5% 2.0% Effective Crush Margin ($/t) 126.9 108.1 168.6 80.8 142.9 82.7 110.9 102.6 99.2 101.6 95.3 92.2 95.4 91.4 92.2 91.2 125.5 -27.3% 1.0% Soybean Supply-Disposition (Mt) Area Harvested (Mha) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 23.3% 0.2% Yield (t/ha) 2.72.92.32.82.52.82.62.62.62.72.72.72.72.82.82.82.6 7.1% 0.2% Production 3.2 3.5 2.7 3.3 3.5 4.1 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 3.2 32.1% 0.4% Imports 0.30.20.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.3 6.9% 0.% Exports 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.8 31.2% -0.7% Soy Meal Imports 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 -17.0% 1.5% Soy Meal Feed Use 2.37 2.47 2.45 2.15 1.89 1.95 2.07 1.95 2.01 2.08 2.15 2.21 2.25 2.28 2.26 2.30 2.3 1.7% 1.7% Soybean Cash Price, #2 Chatham ($/t) 219.7 263.5 431.7 412.6 359.0 389.2 331.4 364.0 383.8 388.0 403.7 411.7 407.5 419.0 416.7 417.6 337.3 23.8% 0.7%
Posted: 21 April 2011, last updated 22 April 2011

See more from Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Canada

Expert Views    
Medium Term Outlook for Cdn. Agriculture   By Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Food and Agricultural Import Regulations and Standards   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Canada- Livestock and Products Semi-annual 2013   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Hot Tips    
Agriculture Implements in Canada   By Bedjasses