Oilseeds and Products Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Canada

Posted on: 21 Apr 2012

The expectation that Canadian farmers will again seed a record amount of canola in 2012/2013 is forecast to boost Canada's total oilseed production.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 04/10/2012 GAIN Report Number: CA12015 Canada Oilseeds and Products Annual 2012 Approved By: Robin Gray Prepared By: Darlene Dessureault Report Highlights: The expectation that Canadian farmers will again seed a record amount of canola in 2012/2013 is forecast to boost Canada's total oilseed production (canola, soybeans and sunflowers) to over 20.0 million metric tons, nearly 7% above 2011/2012 production. Large crops and strong prices are expected to keep crush levels high. Total crush for 2012/2013 is forecast to reach 8.2 MMT. High production will support meal and oilseed exports in 2012/2013. Exports for total oilseeds are forecast to decline slightly in 2012/2013 due to tightening domestic supplies in canola and soybeans. Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 Executive summary: The expectation that Canadian farmers will again seed a record amount of canola in 2012/2013 is forecast to boost Canada's total oilseed production (canola, soybeans and sunflowers) to over 20.0 million metric tons, nearly 7% above 2011/2012 production. Crush in 2012/2013 is forecast to increase to 8.2 MMT due to large crops, crush capacity and attractive domestic crush margins. This represents an increase of 2.5% above already high year 2011/2012 expected levels of 8.0 MMT. Canadian oilseed exports are expected to fall slightly in 2012/2013 to 11.4 MMT from expected 2011/2012 levels of 11.5 MMT. This slight decrease is due to exports in canola and soybeans being limited due to tightening domestic supplies in 2012/2013. Canola and soybean crush in 2012/2013 is expected to remain high due to the large crops and strong prices. Total meal production in 2012/2013 is forecast at 5.0 MMT, slightly above year 2011/2012 expected levels of 4.8 MMT. Similarly, total oils production in 2011/2012 is expected to continue at the high levels being experience in 2011/2012. Total oil production in 2012/2013 is forecast at 3.4 MMT, slightly above year 2011/2012 expected levels of 3.3 MMT. Total meal and total oils exports in 2012/2013 are forecast to rise to 3.4 MMT and 2.8 MMT, slightly above year 2011/2012 total meal and oil expected exports levels. 2 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 OILSEEDS Total Oilseeds Canada?s total oilseed production, which includes canola, soybeans, flax, and sunflower seed is set to expand further in 2012/13 to a forecasted 20.0 million metric tons (MMT). Increases in production are anticipated in all oilseeds crops - canola, soybeans, sunflower seed and flax. Total oilseeds production forecasted for 2012/2013 represents an increase of more than 6% over year 2011/2012 production levels and is being driven by attractive prices relative to other crops. Crush is also forecast to rise again in 2012/2013 to 8.2 MMT due to the larger crop and the increased domestic canola crush capacity that has been built up over the past 5 years. This represents a 2.5% increase over the previous year's levels. Total oilseed exports in 2012/2013 are forecasted at 11.4 MMT, a marginal decrease from year 2011/2012 expected levels. Despite the increased oilseed crop, exports in 2012/2013 will be limited due to lower supplies resulting from low carry-in stocks in canola, flax and sunflower seed. Low stocks are anticipated to keep total oilseed import levels unchanged in 2012/2013. Canada's total oilseed production rebounded in 2010/2011 after 2009/10 crops were down primarily due to an unusually wet and cold summer that was not completely offset by an extended fall growing season. Total oilseed production reached 18.8 MMT, an increase of over 6% above 2009/2010 production levels. The increase was driven by increases in canola production which more than offset the slight decreases in soybean, flax, and sunflower seed production. On the trade front, Canada?s total oilseed exports are expected to rise in 2011/2012 due to the increased crop size. Total oilseeds exports are expected to reach 11.5 MMT, an 8% increase over 2010/2011 export levels. Crush is anticipated to rise to 8.0 MMT due to the increased crop size. Despite buying power buoyed by the stronger Canadian dollar, higher domestic availability is expected to pull total oilseed imports down to about 360,000 tons in 2011/2012. 3 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 Canada: Total Oilseeds 2010/2011 Canola (Rapeseed) Soybean Flax Sunflower Seed TOTAL Area Harvested 6,514 1,477 353 51 8,395 Production 12,773 4,345 423 68 17,609 Crush 6,310 1,448 0 0 7,758 Imports 224 266 8 33 531 Exports 7,207 2,906 404 46 10,563 2011/2012 Canola (Rapeseed) Soybean Flax Sunflower Seed TOTAL Area Harvested 7,471 1,542 273 14 9,300 Production 14,165 4,246 368 20 18,799 Crush 6,600 1,400 0 0 8,000 Imports 125 200 5 30 360 Exports 8,400 2,700 350 35 11,485 2012/2013 Canola (Rapeseed) Soybean Flax Sunflower Seed TOTAL Area Harvested 8,050 1,629 295 43 10,017 Production 15,400 4,200 370 65 20,035 Crush 6,800 1,400 0 0 8,200 Imports 125 200 5 30 360 Exports 8,400 2,600 325 50 11,375 All data in 1,000 hectares and 1,000 metric tons. Marketing year: Aug/July except soybeans which is Sept/Aug. RAPESEED (CANOLA), OILSEED Although the Statistics Canada seeding intentions were not available at the time of this report, strong prices and attractive yields are forecast to push canola production in 2012-2013 to record highs. Canola production is anticipated to reach 15.4 MMT, an increase of almost 9% above year 2011/2012 levels. Despite record production expected, exports in 2012/2013 are forecast to remain flat as exports will be limited by supplies. Canola supply is forecast not to rise significantly due to very low carry-in stocks. In 2011/2012, exports are expected to reach 8.4 MMT due to strong demand and high supplies. Domestic crush in 2012/2013 is forecast to increase 3% from 20122/2012 expected levels of 6.6 MMT. Domestic crush will be limited by tighter domestic supplies resulting from low carry-in stocks. The Canadian biodiesel mandate came into force on July 1, 2011. The mandate requires 2% renewable fuel content in diesel fuel and heating oil. Canola is a good feedstock for biodiesel in Canada due to its performance in Canada's cold weather conditions. Much of the canola-based biodiesel used to meet the Canadian mandate is from canola that is exported to the United States, processed into biodiesel and then re-exported to Canada. Investment in increasing biodiesel plant capacity in Canada has been slow. In the fall of 2011, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved the Government of Canada's petition to use the aggregate approach for approval of Canadian feedstocks, including canola, for biodiesel production in the United States. The decision provides secure access for 4 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 Canadian canola as a sustainable feedstock for U.S. biodiesel markets under the Renewable Fuels Standards 2 (RSF2) regulations. The Canadian government has been very active in its trade missions to Asia and has brought about several promising developments for the Canadian canola industry. In February 2012, a Memorandum of Understanding on a joint canola research between Canada and China was signed. The full re-opening of this market is important to Canadian canola growers. China had placed import restrictions on Canadian canola shipments due to concerns of a disease known as blackleg. The Canadian government was able to work out some transitional measure that would allow canola shipments that tested positive with black leg into a limited amount of facilities located in areas where Chinese rapeseed is not grown. Trade in Canadian canola exports to China in calendar year 2011 was 1.3 MMT, down more than 12% from the previous year. The Canadian canola industry was also pleased with the announcement of negotiations for a Canada-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. Japan is one of the largest markets for Canada canola. Trade in Canadian canola exports to Japan in calendar year 2011 was 7.9 MMT, up nearly 6% from the previous year. Production, Supply and Demand Estimates: Oilseed, Rapeseed Canada 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 6,500 6,806 7,475 7,633 8,250 Area Harvested 6,500 6,514 7,471 7,471 8,050 Beginning Stocks 2,263 2,263 1,727 1,718 700 Production 12,773 12,773 14,165 14,165 15,400 MY Imports 224 224 130 125 125 MY Imp. from U.S. 224 217 130 125 125 MY Imp. from EU 0 19 0 0 0 Total Supply 15,260 15,260 16,022 16,008 16,225 MY Exports 7,207 7,207 8,000 8,400 8,400 MY Exp. to EU 275 297 200 210 210 Crush 6,300 6,310 6,650 6,600 6,800 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 26 25 250 308 175 Total Dom. Cons. 6,326 6,335 6,900 6,908 6,975 Ending Stocks 1,727 1,718 1,122 700 850 Total Distribution 15,260 15,260 16,022 16,008 16,225 1000 HA, 1000 MT SOYBEAN, OILSEED Canadian soybean production in 2012/2013 is expected to decrease marginally from year 2011/2012 levels due to a return to normal yields. Production is forecast at 4.2 MMT. Exports in 2012/2013 are 5 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 forecast to remain strong due to steady demand. Domestic crush in 2012/2013 is expected to remain at levels similar to those expected for 2011/2012 due to limited supplies. This is still well above the 5- year average. Production, Supply and Demand Estimates: Oilseed, Soybean Canada 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 1,500 1,483 1,550 1,550 1,660 Area Harvested 1,477 1,477 1,542 1,542 1,629 Beginning Stocks 175 300 153 301 300 Production 4,345 4,345 4,246 4,246 4,200 MY Imports 246 266 300 200 200 MY Imp. from U.S. 225 245 275 195 195 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 4,766 4,911 4,699 4,747 4,700 MY Exports 2,946 2,906 2,880 2,700 2,600 MY Exp. to EU 1,408 1,370 1,000 1,045 1,010 Crush 1,337 1,448 1,300 1,400 1,400 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 330 256 366 347 450 Total Dom. Cons. 1,667 1,704 1,666 1,747 1,850 Ending Stocks 153 301 153 300 250 Total Distribution 4,766 4,911 4,699 4,747 4,700 1000 HA, 1000 MT 6 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 SUNFLOWER SEED, OILSEED Production, Supply and Demand Estimates: Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Canada 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 72 55 72 14 45 Area Harvested 72 51 72 14 43 Beginning Stocks 42 42 49 29 5 Production 115 68 115 20 65 MY Imports 33 33 25 30 30 MY Imp. from U.S. 31 31 25 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 190 143 189 79 100 MY Exports 46 46 45 35 50 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 6 26 6 20 20 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 89 42 90 19 20 Total Dom. Cons. 95 68 96 39 40 Ending Stocks 49 29 48 5 10 Total Distribution 190 143 189 79 100 1000 HA, 1000 MT 7 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 OILMEALS Total Oilmeals With canola and soybean crush forecast to continue to remain at high levels experience in 2011/2012, total meal production is forecast to increase to nearly 5.0 million metric tons (MMT). This is an increase of nearly 3% over year 2011/2012 expected levels, and is significantly above the 5 year average. This trend towards increased crush is reflective of the increased crush capacity that has been built up in Canada over the last 5 years. The increase in meal production forecasted for 2012/2013 is being driven by the increase in canola crush as the soybean crush is forecasted to remain at year 2011/2012 expected levels. Increased production and continued strong demand will fuel total meal exports in 2012/2013. Exports are forecast to increase in 2012/2013 to 3.4 MMT, almost 4% above year 2011/2012 expected levels. Meal imports in 2012/2013 are forecasted to remain at 2011/2012 levels due to ample domestic supplies. Canada: Total Oilmeals Canola (Rapeseed) Soybean TOTAL Crush 6,310 1,425 7,735 Production 3,568 1,122 4,690 Imports 33 1,028 1,061 Exports 2,989 126 3,115 Canola (Rapeseed) Soybean TOTAL Crush 6,600 1,400 8,000 Production 3,736 1,100 4,836 Imports 30 1,040 1,070 Exports 3,200 100 3,300 Canola (Rapeseed) Soybean TOTAL Crush 6,800 1,400 8,200 Production 3,876 1,100 4,976 Imports 30 1,040 1,070 Exports 3,300 125 3,425 All data in 1,000 metric tons.Marketing years: Aug/July. 8 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 CANOLA (RAPESEED) MEAL: Production, Supply and Demand Estimates: Meal, Rapeseed Canada 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 6,300 6,310 6,650 6,600 6,800 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 175 78 144 74 40 Production 3,650 3,568 3,850 3,736 3,876 MY Imports 33 33 25 30 30 MY Imp. from U.S. 33 33 25 30 30 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,858 3,679 4,019 3,840 3,946 MY Exports 2,989 2,989 3,140 3,200 3,300 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 725 616 750 600 600 Total Dom. Cons. 725 616 750 600 600 Ending Stocks 144 74 129 40 46 Total Distribution 3,858 3,679 4,019 3,840 3,946 1000 MT, PERCENT 9 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 SOYBEAN MEAL Production, Supply and Demand Estimates: Meal, Soybean Canada 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 1,337 1,425 1,300 1,400 1,400 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 20 13 21 14 25 Production 1,055 1,122 1,025 1,100 1,100 MY Imports 1,076 1,028 1,050 1,040 1,040 MY Imp. from U.S. 1,069 1,023 1,045 1,035 1,035 MY Imp. from EU 1 4 0 2 2 Total Supply 2,151 2,163 2,096 2,154 2,165 MY Exports 210 126 175 100 125 MY Exp. to EU 51 0 25 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1,920 2,023 1,900 2,029 2,020 Total Dom. Cons. 1,920 2,023 1,900 2,029 2,020 Ending Stocks 21 14 21 25 20 Total Distribution 2,151 2,163 2,096 2,154 2,165 1000 MT, PERCENT 10 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 OILS Total Oils Total oils production in 2012/2013 is expected to continue at the high pace being experienced in 2011/2012. Crush is up significantly from the 5 year average due to the increased crush capacity that has been built up in Canada over the last 5 years, large crops and strong demand for vegetable oils. Crush is expected in increase another 2.5% in 2011/2013 above 2011/2012 expected crush levels of 8.0 MMT. Production in 2012/2013 of oils is forecasted at 3.3 MMT, almost 3% above 2011/2012 expected levels. High production will keep imports relatively flat in 2012/2013 compared to 2011/2012 levels. High production is expected to pull down imports in 2011/2012. Increased production and continued strong demand will fuel exports. Exports in 2012/2013 are expected to reach 2.76 MMT, a 3.76% increase over 2011/2012 expected levels of 2.66 MMT. Canada: Total Oils Canola (Rapeseed) Soybean TOTAL Crush 6,310 1,425 7,735 Production 2,768 265 3,033 Imports 124 32 156 Exports 2,432 66 2,498 Canola (Rapeseed) Soybean TOTAL Crush 6,600 1,400 8,000 Production 3,000 255 3,255 Imports 100 30 130 Exports 2,600 60 2,660 Canola (Rapeseed) Soybean TOTAL Crush 6,800 1,400 8,200 Production 3,090 257 3,347 Imports 100 30 130 Exports 2,700 60 2,760 All data in 1,000 metric tons.Marketing years: Aug/July. 11 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 CANOLA (RAPESEED) OIL Production, Supply and Demand Estimates: Oil, Rapeseed Canada 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 6,300 6,310 6,650 6,600 6,800 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 114 114 53 82 110 Production 2,645 2,768 2,790 3,000 3,090 MY Imports 124 124 175 100 100 MY Imp. from U.S. 124 120 175 95 95 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 2,883 2,963 3,018 3,182 3,300 MY Exports 2,420 2,432 2,420 2,600 2,700 MY Exp. to EU 83 143 75 130 130 Industrial Dom. Cons. 35 30 125 30 30 Food Use Dom. Cons. 375 419 380 442 450 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 410 449 505 472 480 Ending Stocks 53 82 93 110 120 Total Distribution 2,883 2,963 3,018 3,182 3,300 1000 MT, PERCENT 12 Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Canada 2012 SOYBEAN OIL Production, Supply and Demand Estimates: Oil, Soybean Canada 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 1,337 1,425 1,300 1,400 1,400 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 13 4 8 3 13 Production 244 265 236 255 257 MY Imports 32 32 31 30 30 MY Imp. from U.S. 32 32 31 30 30 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 289 301 275 288 300 MY Exports 66 66 57 60 60 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 215 232 210 215 220 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 215 232 210 215 220 Ending Stocks 8 3 8 13 20 Total Distribution 289 301 275 288 300 1000 MT, PERCENT PEANUTS: Canada Peanut Import Statistics in-shell basis; in thousand metric tons October - September October - January Quantity Quantity Partner Country Unit 2010/2011 2011/2012 (e) 2012/2013 (f) 09/10 10/11 (e) % change World TMT 139 135 136 50.1 41.8 -17% United States TMT 111 109 109 38.3 31.5 -18% China TMT 16 15 16 6.9 5.8 -16% Others TMT 11 11 11 4.9 3.9 -20% (e): estimate (f): forecast 13
Posted: 21 April 2012

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