Canada Dairy Products Annual

A Hot Tip about Dairy Products in Canada

Posted on: 4 Jan 2010

Across the board production and sales of dairy products in Canada were down slightly in 2008. The largest decline was in the production of cheese which fell by 7 percent. Data for the first eight months of 2009 suggests a continued, slight, downward trend.

Required Report - public distribution Date: 5/14/2009 GAIN Report Number: AS9020 Australia DAIRY AND PRODUCTS SEMI-ANNUAL SEMI-ANNUAL Approved By: Grant Pettrie, Agricultural Counselor Prepared By: Mike Darby, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Improved fluid milk supply combined with a lower Australian dollar value will likely see production and exports of butter and milk powders increase in 2008/09 while lower world prices will likely see cheese production and exports decline. Executive Summary: Eastern Australia, where the majority of the Australian dairy industry is located, continues to suffer drier than average conditions and irrigation water supplies continue to remain at historically low levels. Despite recent rainfall, climatic conditions continue to be drier than average in south east Australia. Supplies of irrigation water also remain at historically low levels and require substantial rainfall before significant improvement can be expected. The dairy industry remains the largest user of irrigation water in Australia and so continues to be sensitive to changes in climate and climate policy. Steep declines in world prices for key dairy commodities have precipitated a decrease in farm gate prices for fluid milk in Australia during 2008/09. According to a recent ABARE report world prices for cheese, butter and milk powders have fallen by around half in 2008/09, following record highs in 2007/08. Declining input prices have provided some relief from declining milk prices and continuing dry conditions. Also, on the positive side, prices paid for fodder (hay and grain) have declined significantly as has the price of fuel in 2008/09. Prices paid for irrigation water have also declined from record levels, although remaining at historically high levels. A substantial increase in the value of the Australian dollar in 2007/08, combined with a decrease in milk supply slashed dairy exports for 2007/08. However, increased milk supply and a lower Australian dollar value will likely see dairy exports improve in 2008/09. Beyond the current forecast year, current ABARE forecasts fluid milk production increasing between one and two percent for 2009/10 and to continue rising at this rate out to 2013/14. Post advises that, should this projection be realized, production will likely remain at levels below those experienced prior to the drought. This increase is expected to be driven by an increase in cow numbers (which fell sharply in 2007/08). ABARE does not expect cow yield to improve in 2009/10. Commodities: Dairy, Milk, Fluid Dairy, Cheese Dairy, Butter Dairy, Dry Whole Milk Powder Dairy, Milk, Nonfat Dry Production: Fluid Milk Fluid milk production for 2008/09 is forecast at 9.79 MMT, up around three percent on the revised estimate for the previous year. Improved availability of fodder and above average rainfall for the months of November and December combined to lift 2008/09 production. Post has revised estimated fluid milk production for 2007/08 downwards significantly to 9.50 MMT, or around 9.2 billion liters using a conversion factor of 1.03. This decrease is in line with full-year industry figures showing that drought conditions constrained fluid milk production beyond previous expectations. Generally, fluid milk production has been declining since reaching record levels in 2001/02. Long running and severe drought which began in 2002/03 has seen cattle numbers and producer numbers decline. Yield per cow however has continued to improve steadily. Source: ABARE data (July-June) ABARE?s long term projections have fluid milk increasing steadily out to 20013/14, reaching approximately 10.89 MMT or 10.57 billion liters. Despite this increase, this projection remains below the record level of 11.6 MMT or 11.27 billion liters achieved in 2001/02. Cheese Total cheese production for 2008/09 is forecast at 335 TMT, down three percent from the previous year despite a forecast increase in the supply of fluid milk. This forecast decline is in line with industry partial-year data (July-February) which shows production down by 3.2 percent compared with the same period for previous year. Exports of cheese for 2008/09 are forecast at 177 TMT, down 12 percent on the revised estimate for the previous year. Industry year-to-date data (July-February) shows exports of some cheeses down by nearly half. This decline in production is supported by ABARE figures showing cheese has experienced the largest price falls of all dairy commodities. Post has revised its cheese production and export estimates for 2007/08 downwards in line with industry figures. Butter Total butter production for 2008/09 is forecast at 118 TMT, up six percent on the revised estimate for the previous year. Industry data shows partial-year production (July-February) up sharply, however monthly figures show butter production trending downwards in recent months. Butter oil production is also trending higher over the same partial-year period. Post?s forecast of 118 TMT for butter production in 2008/09 remains well below levels achieved in recent years but in line with the long-term trend of declining production driven by changing long-term consumption patterns. ABARE?s long term projections have butter production increasing at modest levels out to 2013/14. Source: ABARE data (July-June) Total exports of butter for 2008/09 are forecast at 70 TMT, up on the revised estimate for 2007/08. Partial year data (July-February) for butter exports is showing a modest increase while butter oil, which is a minor component of exports, is showing a decline. Post forecasts an overall increase in exports for 2008/09. Post has revised exports for 2007/08 downwards significantly to 54 TMT. A higher Australian dollar and lower- than-anticipated production constrained exports below previous expectations. Whole Milk Powder Total whole milk powder production (WMP) for 2008/09 is forecast at 145 TMT, up only slightly on the revised estimate of the prior year. Industry data shows WMP production declining slightly on a partial year (July-February) basis, however monthly production figures show strong increases in production in more recent months. Post expects full-year production for 2008/09 to increase slightly over the previous year. Historical data shows WMP production decreasing on a long-term basis and ?leveling out? in more recent years. ABARE?s long term projections have whole milk powder production increasing at modest levels out to 2013/14. Total exports of WMP are forecast to increase to 150 TMT in 2008/09. Prior low levels of exports combined with comparatively high production levels in 2007/08 created higher carry-in stocks for 2008/09. This situation combined with the lower Australian dollar is expected to see exports increase at the expense of stocks in 2008/09. Source: ABARE data (July-June) Skim Milk Powder Total skim milk powder (SMP) production for 2008/09 is forecast at 200 TMT, up 12 percent on the revised figure for the previous year. Industry partial-year data (July-February) shows a sharp increase in production with a particularly large increase in production in more recent months. Buttermilk powder (BMP), which post includes in SMP figures, has also experienced a sharp increase in production. Post has revised production of SMP downwards significantly for 2007/08. A stronger dollar and poorer export demand in 2007/08 combined to constrain production to levels lower than previously anticipated. Exports of SMP for 2008/09 are forecast at 170 TMT, up sharply on the revised estimate for the previous year. Devaluation of the Australian dollar in the first half of 2008/09 has greatly increased the competitiveness of Australia?s SMP exports. Despite this forecast increase, this level of exports is considered roughly equal to the ten-year-average. Source: ABARE data (July-June) Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Dairy, Milk, Fluid - Australia 2006 2007 2008 1,000 Head Market Year Begin: Jul 2006 Market Year Begin: Jul 2007 Market Year Begin: Jul 2008 & USDA Official Post USDA Official Post USDA Official Post 1,000 MT Post Estimate Estimate Post Estimate Estimate Post Estimate Estimate New New New Cows In Milk 1,870 1,870 1,870 1,800 0 1,800 1,730 1,730 1,730 Cows Milk 10,395 10,395 10,395 9,870 0 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,785 Production Other Milk 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production Total Production 10,395 10,395 10,395 9,870 0 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,785 Other Imports 3 3 3 2 0 6 6 6 7 Total Imports 3 3 3 2 0 6 6 6 7 Total Supply 10,398 10,398 10,398 9,872 0 9,506 9,506 9,506 9,792 Other Exports 86 86 86 82 0 82 69 69 69 Total Exports 86 86 86 82 0 82 69 69 69 Fluid Use Dom. 2,127 2,127 2,127 2,162 0 2,271 2,205 2,205 2,316 Consum. Factory Use 8,185 8,185 8,185 7,628 0 7,153 7,232 7,232 7,407 Consum. Feed Use Dom. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Consum. Total Dom. 10,312 10,312 10,312 9,790 0 9,424 9,437 9,437 9,723 Consumption Total 10,398 10,398 10,398 9,872 0 9,506 9,506 9,506 9,792 Distribution CY Imp. from 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.S. CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cheese - Australia 2006 2007 2008 Market Year Begin: Jul 2006 Market Year Begin: Jul 2007 Market Year Begin: Jul 2008 1,000 MT USDA Post Post Of w USDA Post N USDA Post New ew Post ficial Estimat Nee E Estimate stimate Official E te Post stimate Official Estima Estimate Beginning 25 25 25 21 21 21 18 18 17 Stocks Production 362 362 362 360 360 345 344 344 335 Other Imports 61 61 61 64 64 68 70 70 55 Total Imports 61 61 61 64 64 68 70 70 55 Total Supply 448 448 448 445 445 434 432 432 407 Other Exports 202 202 202 212 212 202 202 202 177 Total Exports 202 202 202 212 212 202 202 202 177 Human Dom. 225 225 225 215 215 215 215 215 215 Consumption Other Use, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Losses Total Dom. 225 225 225 215 215 215 215 215 215 Consumption Total Use 427 427 427 427 427 417 417 417 392 Ending Stocks 21 21 21 18 18 17 15 15 15 Total 448 448 448 445 445 434 432 432 407 Distribution CY Imp. from 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 6 U.S. CY. Exp. to U.S. 12 12 12 14 14 14 9 9 9 Dairy, Butter - Australia 2006 2007 2008 Market Year Begin: Jul 2006 Market Year Begin: Jul 2007 Market Year Begin: Jul 2008 USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post Post 1,000 MT Official Estim Post ate Es Est New Post imate Official Estimate tima Official te Estimate N Estimate ew New Beginning 14 14 14 9 9 9 4 4 22 Stocks Production 129 129 129 117 117 111 111 111 118 Other Imports 10 10 10 13 13 20 20 20 15 Total Imports 10 10 10 13 13 20 20 20 15 Total Supply 153 153 153 139 139 140 135 135 155 Other Exports 82 82 82 80 80 54 59 59 70 Total Exports 82 82 82 80 80 54 59 59 70 Domestic 62 62 62 55 55 64 62 62 64 Consumption Total Use 144 144 144 135 135 118 121 121 134 Ending Stocks 9 9 9 4 4 22 14 14 21 Total 153 153 153 139 139 140 135 135 155 Distribution CY Imp. from 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 U.S. CY. Exp. to 2 2 2 5 5 5 3 3 3 U.S. Dairy, Dry Whole Milk Powder - Australia 2006 2007 2008 Market Year Begin: Jul 2006 Market Year Begin: Jul 2007 Market Year Begin: Jul 2008 1,000 MT USDA Post Post USDA Post Post USDA Post Post Official Estimate Estimate Official Estimate Estimate Official Estimate Estimate New New New Beginning Stocks 49 49 49 34 34 34 23 23 51 Production 152 152 152 135 135 142 125 125 145 Other Imports 13 13 13 11 11 13 13 13 10 Total Imports 13 13 13 11 11 13 13 13 10 Total Supply 214 214 214 180 180 189 161 161 206 Other Exports 153 153 153 130 130 111 111 111 150 Total Exports 153 153 153 130 130 111 111 111 150 Human Dom. Consumption 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 29 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 29 Total Use 180 180 180 157 157 138 140 140 179 Ending Stocks 34 34 34 23 23 51 21 21 27 Total Distribution 214 214 214 180 180 189 161 161 206 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 5 5 2 3 3 3 Dairy, Milk , Nonfat Dry - Australia 2006 2007 2008 Market Year Begin: Jul 2006 Market Year Begin: Jul 2007 Market Year Begin: Jul 2008 1,000 MT USDA Post Post New O E USDA Post Post USDA stimate fficial Estim Post ate N Official Estimate Estimate Official Estimate Post ew New Estimate Beginning Stocks 39 39 39 38 38 38 30 30 46 Production 221 221 221 205 205 177 177 177 200 Other Imports 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 Total Imports 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 Total Supply 265 265 265 247 247 219 210 210 249 Other Exports 189 189 189 175 175 128 120 120 170 Total Exports 189 189 189 175 175 128 120 120 170 Human Dom. 38 38 38 42 42 45 45 45 45 Consumption Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 38 38 38 42 42 45 45 45 45 Total Use 227 227 227 217 217 173 165 165 215 Ending Stocks 38 38 38 30 30 46 45 45 34 Total Distribution 265 265 265 247 247 219 210 210 249 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Author Defined: Recent Reports from FAS/Canberra The reports listed below can all be downloaded from the FAS website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/AttacheRep/default.asp. Report Number Title of Report Date AS9018 Cotton Annual 04/28/09 AS9016 Sugar Annual 04/02/09 AS9015 Grain and Feed Annual 2009 03/20/09 AS9014 Stone Fruit Annual 2009 03/13/09 AS9012 Agricultural Economy and Policy Report 03/12/09 AS9010 Livestock Semi-Annual 03/06/09 AS9009 Government Announces A$32m Research into Soil Carbon & Emissions 03/06/09
Posted: 04 January 2010

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