Oilseeds and Products Annual

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in China

Posted on: 23 Mar 2012

MY12/13 total oilseed production is forecast at 56 million metric tons (MMT), a slight adjustment of one percent from last year's estimated 56.6 MMT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 3/1/2012 GAIN Report Number: CH12020 China - Peoples Republic of Oilseeds and Products Annual Approved By: Scott Sindelar Prepared By: M. Melinda Meador and WU Xinping Report Highlights: MY12/13 total oilseed production is forecast at 56 million metric tons (MMT), a slight adjustment of one percent from last year's estimated 56.6 MMT. Total oilseed demand will stay strong, particularly for soybeans, with MY12/13 consumption forecast at 118 MMT up from an estimated 113.6 MMT in MY11/12. Consumer affluence will drive soybean imports to 59 MMT in MY12/13 to meet increasing demand for animal products and vegetable oils. Executive Summary: Total MY12/13 oilseed production is forecast at 56 million metric tons (MMT) from a planted area of 25.7 million hectares (MHa), both down 0.7 percent and one percent from MY11/12, respectively. Rising consumer affluence is driving demand for animal and fish protein. In response, advancements in concentrated animal and aquatic production, growth in the feed industry and expansion in the crush sector are spurring demand and need for imports to supply feed protein sources, such as soybean and rapeseed meal. Total oilseed imports in MY12/13 are forecast to reach 60.9 MMT from 57.5 MMT in MY11/12. Specific MY12/13 forecasts for oilseed categories include: Soybean production will rise 1.5 percent to 13.7 MMT based on a modest increase in planted area to 7.7 MHa Soybean imports will rise six percent to 59 MMT Soybean meal demand continues strong in response to feed needs Soybean oil demand stays strong in response to consumer demand Rapeseed production will increase to 12.8MMT based on a rise in planted area to 7.2 MHa Rapeseed imports will increase to 1.8 MMT Peanut production will stabilize at 16 MMT unchanged from MY11/12 Peanut planting area will remain stable Cottonseed production will fall one MMT due to an expected drop in cotton planted area Cottonseed imports will be driven by increased demand and diversified use Palm oil imports will increase moderately Palm oil consumption will rise Table of Contents Oilseeds Situation and Outlook Total Oilseeds Soybeans Production Trade Policy Rapeseed Peanuts Cottonseed Oilseed Meal Situation and Outlook Soybean Meal Production Trade Fishmeal Oil Situation and Outlook Total Oils Soybean Oil Palm Oil Statistics Tables Total Oilseeds, Total Meal, and Total Oil PSD Tables Table 1. Total Oilseeds Table 2. Total Meals Table 3. Total Oils Oilseeds PSD Tables Table 4. Soybeans Table 5. Rapeseed Table 6. Peanuts Table 7. Sunflower Seed Table 8. Cottonseed Meal PSD Tables Table 9. Soybean Meal Table 10. Rapeseed Meal Table 11. Peanut Meal Table 12. Sunflower Seed Meal Table 13. Cotton Seed Meal Table 14. Fish Meal Oils PSD Tables Table 15. Soybean Oil Table 16. Rapeseed Oil Table 17. Peanut Oil Table 18. Cotton Seed Oil Table 19. Sunflower Seed Oil Table 20. Palm Oil Table 21. Coconut Oil Soybean & Rapeseed Wholesale Price Tables Table 22. Wholesale Soybean Prices CY2011 Table 23. Wholesale Soybean Meal Prices in CY2011 Table 24. Wholesale Soybean Oil Prices in CY2011 Table 25. Wholesale Rapeseed Oil Prices in CY2011 Table 26. Wholesale Palm Oil Ex-Pier Prices CY 2011 Table 27. Comparison of Wholesale Prices for Soy, Palm & Rapeseed Oil in CY 2011 Taxes & Duties Tables (Jan 01-Dec 31, 2012) Table 28. Oilseeds Table 29. Oils Table 30. Meals Oilseeds Situation and Outlook China is the world?s largest oilseed consumer. Population growth and dietary demands overwhelm stagnant domestic production capabilities, leaving China dependent on foreign suppliers, particularly the U.S., Brazil and Argentina, to meet its supply gap. Total Oilseeds Total MY12/13 oilseed production is forecast at 56 MMT, down one percent in planted area to 25.7 million hectares (MHa), as cottonseed falls one MMT in response to diminished cotton returns. Positive soybean returns in MY11/12 are generating moderate growth expectations in MY12/13 soybean planting area and raising the production forecast to 13.7 MMT. Likewise, relatively high prices for rapeseed products in late 2011 will spur production to 12.8 MMT based on a planted area of 7.2 MHa. A sharp decline in MY11/12 cotton profits, however, will cause a 10 percent decline in cotton planted area and one MMT drop in cottonseed production. MY12/13 peanut production is forecast slightly lower at 16 MMT from a record high 16.2 MMT in MY11/12. Potential expansion of oilseed production through land area or yield improvements remains limited. Government incentives draw arable land toward more profitable competing crops like corn and rice. Additional yield gains for oilseeds are hindered by poor agronomic practices, insufficient technology, and inadequate farmer inputs. Source: China Agriculture Statistics Report; Cottonseed by FAS/Beijing; MY12/13 data forecast by FAS/Beijing Soybeans Production Soybean production in MY12/13 is forecast to increase to 13.7 MMT from the previous year?s estimated 13.5 MMT in response to favorable returns. Total soybean planted area in MY12/13 is forecast to rise slightly to 7.7 MHa from 7.65 MHa in MY11/12, per China?s National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC). This rise represents a modest recovery from a MY11/12 drop in planting area and production after unfavorable weather and low returns in MY10/11 drove farmers to plant more corn versus soybeans.In major production regions, particularly Heilongjiang where corn, rice and soybeans are planting options, soybeans are the least profitable crop. Industry sources estimate Heilongjiang province added almost 1 MHa of corn and rice area in MY11/12 to the detriment of soybean planting area which fell to 3.46 MHa from 4.5 MHa in MY10/11. The National Statistics Bureau, however, released a much lower MY10/11 planted area at 3.55 MHa. The national average for soybean yield has remained constant at 1.7MT/Ha for several years (excluding an MY09/10 abnormal weather disruption in NE China.) Small-scale farm size, lack of agronomic techniques, such as soybean crop rotation, and limited access to better inputs remain major impediments to yield increases, factors which are unlikely to change in the near future. Significant production gains from area increases are also unlikely given soybeans modest profit signals, lucrative alternative crops and land constraints. According to an industry survey, MY11/12 soybean profits were impacted by an average 30 percent increase in overall production costs which whittled modest price gains. National and Heilongjiang soybean prices tracked closely with the yearly price spread rising at harvest but closing and ending the year at nearly the same price. Based on CNGOIC, the December wholesale price for soybean oil and meal declined by 15 and 16 percent from January, respectively. Furthermore, China?s soybean crushing sector experienced the longest ?negative crushing margin? in 2011. (See chart 2 - Exchange rate in 2011: RMB6.5 =$1.0). Chart 2. Soybean Wholesale Price in 2011 (RMB/MT) Source: China National Grains & Oils Information Center, Beijing The Chinese government?s food security policy dictates that domestic soybeans, considered a staple grain, maintain their production level. Thus, the government provides income support through a floor price purchase price program which is expected to help stabilize soybean planting area in the major production areas in the northeast. Although 2012 planting decisions aren?t yet firm, industry sources relate that the northeast provinces are expected to moderately increase planting area and other producing provinces area will likely remain stable. Stocks China?s floor price purchases are used to maintain a certain volume of oilseeds as ?state reserve.? As well as a method to support farmer income, the government also uses these stocks, as they deem necessary, to regulate domestic oilseeds and by- product supply. The quantity in reserve is unpublished. Although difficult to estimate, current projections are that China maintains about 6 MMT in soybean reserve. State purchases from the MY11/12 new crop appear to be limited as the domestic soybean price started low from the harvest and remained bearish. In late October 2011, the GOC offered a floor price of RMB4,000/MT in the Northeast provinces (Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin), with no volume limit, from Jan 23 to April 30, 2012. High quality purchase conditions, however, are believed to be affecting interest in this offer. According to CNGOIC, as of this report, total purchases of MY11/12 crop for state reserve are estimated at 1.5 MMT. Post forecasts industry is holding stocks of 7.5 MMT (for 1.5 months crushing), bringing MY11/12 total ending stocks to approximately 13.5 MMT. Due to the age of some reserve stocks, the GOC is expected to release some older stocks which will reduce MY12/13 ending stocks to 11.3 MMT. Trade The U.S. is currently China?s largest supplier of soybeans, hitting a record 24.98 MMT in MY10/11, accounting for 48 percent of the total imports. Other suppliers include Brazil and Argentina. Soybean imports for MY12/13 are forecast at 59 MMT, up six percent from the estimated 55.8 MMT in MY11/12. Soybean imports in MY11/12 are expected to rise by seven percent to reach 55.8 MMT from the 52.4 MMT in MY10/11. MY10/11 soybean imports leveled off after high imports in MY09/10 resulted in high carry-in stocks. China?s Soybean Imports by Country of Origin (in MMT) from MY09/10 to MY11/12 MY09/10 MY10/11 MY11/12* Country MMT Share MMT Share MMT Share United States 22.6 45% 24.98 48% 6.6 44% Brazil 18.2 36% 18.3 35% 3.6 24% Argentina 8.2 16% 7.4 14% 4.2 28% Others 1.3 3% 1.6 3% 0.5 4% Total 50.3 100% 52.3 100% 14.9 100% Source: World Trade Atlas; * MY11/12 data up to December 2011 China?s soybean exports (mainly for food use) are forecast at 260,000 MT in MY12/13, compared to an estimated 250,000 MT in MY11/12. Overall though, export volumes have been in decline as traditional markets, like Korea and Japan, are sourcing food soybeans (both GMO and non-GMO) from other countries, including the US. Soybean meal (SBM), produced in China largely from imported soybeans, is an integral protein component of the feed necessary to support China?s burgeoning pork, poultry and aquaculture industries. Their rapidly maturing animal husbandry and feed industries (including aquaculture), expansion in crush capacity and growing consumption of vegetable oils are all driving demand which cannot be met by domestic supply. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), China?s total industrialized feed production reached 169 MMT in 2011, up 4.3 percent (or a net increase of 7 MMT) over the previous year. Based on the 12th Five Year (2011-2015) Plan for Feed Industry Development, China?s total industrialized feed production is expected to reach 200 MMT by 2015, with an average yearly net increase of 7.6 MMT from 2011 to 2015. The plan also encourages consolidation in the feed industry, targeting the top 50 feed manufacturers to produce 50 percent of nation?s total feed by 2015. This plan will drive soybean meal consumption in the next five years as self-mixed feed declines. (See more in the Total Meal section). Soybean crushing sector continues to expand Soybean meal is produced in plants that crush the bean and extract the pulpy meal and oil as by-products. According to CNGOIC, at the end of 2011, 20 new or expanded facilities (15 for soybeans and 5 for soybean and rapeseed) had added 15 MMT moving China?s total crush capacity toward 115 MMT, an expansion expected to increase to 120 MMT in 2012. The market share of the top ten crushing enterprises grew to 58 percent in 2011 from 34.8 in 2008. Given the negative profit margins the crush sector experienced in 2011, the soybean crushing sector is expected to increase consolidation and reduce outdated facilities. Chart 3 shows the distribution of soybean crushing capacity (estimated by COFCO at 110 MMT or daily crushing capacity at 360,000 MT in 2011), with an estimated 78 percent located along the coast region. Source: COFCO; Northeast-Heilongjiang, Jiling and Liaoning; Bohai Bay-Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shadong; South China-Fujian, Guangdong and Guangxi Industry sources report that new capacity is mainly financed by domestic investments from state-owned enterprises (SOE) or the private sector. For instance, China State Grain Reserve Corp has entered commercial oilseed/grain processing by building two crushing plants in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces. Some industry insiders complain that domestic crushing plants, in particular those with SOE associations, receive preferential financing and local government support. Current policy in China appears to reserve additional capacity for domestic companies and discourage additional foreign investment in new crush facilities. COFCO (China?s largest grain and oilseed company) estimates the capacity utilization rate for the top ten crush companies at 71 percent in 2010, with the rest of the sector?s utilization rate averaging less than 50 percent. Competition is expected to be keen in this sector if soybean imports level off in the future. Policy Total agriculture subsidy exceeded $22 billion in 2011 To meet grain security goals, Chinese policy leaders encourage a stable planting area and an increase in yields through technology for key crops, including soybeans. China?s total comprehensive agricultural subsidies (four categories including direct grain subsidy, agricultural inputs subsidy, agricultural machinery purchasing subsidy, and seed subsidy) reached RMB140.6 billion ($22 billion) in 2011 from RMB134.5 billion in 2010. Soybeans are regarded as grain by the GOC and are entitled to subsidies (seed, machinery and agricultural inputs/fuel/fertilizer). Out of the total RMB134.5 billion, a sum of $2.4 billion was paid to farmers as direct grain subsidies (covering rice, wheat and corn), and $3.4 billion as seed subsidies to cover the entire planted area of major crops (including rice, wheat, corn, rapeseed, soybeans and cotton), $2.7 billion for agricultural machinery subsidies and $13.5 billion for fuel and fertilizer subsidies. MOA expects the total agricultural subsidy will increase further in 2012, but has not published specific data. Other measures to maintain oilseed production include augmented technical support (through the extension service) to help farmers increase yields. Food Security Concerns The sustained surge of soybean imports over the past ten years has caused waves of concern amongst Chinese policy makers tasked with insuring domestic food security. The quantity of soybean imports, which has grown from 16.9 MMT in MY03/04 to 52.3MMT in MY10/11, to meet demand has highlighted China?s dependence on foreign suppliers and accentuated their vulnerability in domestic supply. Recently, though, the Government has appeared ready to unofficially acquiesce to ?a choice of no choice? to the volume of soybean imports. Nevertheless, to reduce their exposure, the GOC is attempting to diversify its suppliers by encouraging Chinese companies to invest in South American enterprises. A company from Chongqing has reportedly shipped the first soybeans produced by the company?s Brazilian soybean facilities to China in late 2011. This trend is expected to continue with more Chinese investments in soybean farms, silos and other grain handling facilities in countries such as Brazil. In an effort to monitor soybean imports, China?s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) maintains an automatic registration form (ARF) system on imports of bulky agricultural commodities covering soybeans, rapeseed, soybean meal and vegetable oils (See more in CH10035 and CH9035). Biotech-free soybean production policy unchanged After the MOA issued safety certificates for two domestically developed biotech varieties of rice and corn in December 2009, speculation regarding modifications to China?s ?biotech-free? soybean production policy erupted. In addition, it also generated a wider debate on China?s policy toward direct human consumption of GMO food products. This debate resulted in a conservative biotech policy which eventually stayed further official progress on the production of the biotech rice and corn varieties. China?s production of biotech free soybeans ensures a large and stable domestic market and the ability to export, at a premium, to European and Asian markets. Responsible soy program In addition to biotech free characteristics, the China Soybean Association (CSIA) is also suggesting the GOC consider adding production characteristics. The Association recently supported a seminar held by The Round Table on Responsible Soy Association (RTRS), a multi-stakeholder initiative which aims to facilitate a global dialogue on soy production that is economically viable, socially equitable and environmentally sound. It is difficult to know how China will react to a program which requires additional certification for its producers. Perhaps the program might bring a premium for China?s Non-GMO soybean exports by certifying the product is produced under a ?responsible? system. Perhaps as the largest importer, China might require that imports meet this production characteristic in the future. The impact of China-ASEAN free trade zone on oils trade remains limited The China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) was enacted on January 1, 2010. According to the Agreement, the import duties for more than 90 percent of goods imported to China from ASEAN countries were eliminated. According to the 2012 Customs Import and Export Tariffs of China, the duties for palm oil, palm kernel oil, and copra oil remain unchanged at nine percent. In general, Post expects that the implementation of CAFTA will have limited impact on the oilseed/vegetable oil trade between China and ASEAN. USDA and AQSIQ continues cooperation In late 2010, USDA and AQSIQ signed a Memorandum of Understanding Regarding China-U.S. Cooperation Program for the Inspection and Quarantine of U.S. Soybeans Exported to China (MOU). The MOU requested both sides endeavor to enhance cooperation and communication on supervision of plant quarantine, safety and quality for U.S. soybeans exported to China, and to strive to identify and, where appropriate, take measures to ensure that U.S. soybeans comply with China?s laws, regulations and standards on soybean inspection and quarantine, so as to promote smooth soybean trade. One of the issues currently under discussion focuses on China?s zero tolerance policy for some foreign matter in imported soybeans. In late 2011, the US soybean industry supported the visit by a team of six AQSIQ soybean inspectors to the U.S to foster greater understanding of the soybean production, distribution and inspection system. Follow up activities to promote greater bilateral cooperation and communication are underway. Marketing Generally, the domestic soybean marketing situation remains unchanged. Soybeans produced in the Northeast provinces are used throughout China to produce food, while the remainder is crushed locally or in nearby provinces. Traders of domestic soybeans for food use are usually small to medium size and face many challenges in consolidating soybeans from households and villages. Shipping soybeans by truck is becoming more common as highway improvements increase convenience in redistribution. Rapeseed MY12/13 rapeseed production is forecast at 12.8 MMT based on a planted area of 7.2 MHa, up two percent from the estimated 12.5 MMT from planted area of 7.1 MHa in MY11/12. The rise in production forecast for MY12/13 is based on slightly improved profits in MY11/12. The average purchase price for rapeseed was estimated at RMB4,700/MT, up 20 percent over the previous year. However, the migration of farm labor to city work has reduced the labor supply and raised production costs for rapeseed. To encourage the maintenance of rapeseed planting area, the GOC provides a rapeseed seed subsidy of RBM150/Ha. Industry insiders argue a higher subsidy would encourage farmers to make more use of idle winter idle for rapeseed at a time when competition for land with grain crops is not an issue. To bolster farmer?s income, the Government also provides income support through its purchase of rapeseed for state reserve at a floor price. According to industry sources, the GOC was to purchase 2 MMT of MY11/12 rapeseed at the floor price (RMB4,600/MT), up 16 percent over the previous year between late June and the end of September 2011, however, no specific volume purchases have been made public. Based on a MOA?s survey at the end of 2011, winter rapeseed planted area had increased moderately, though no specific data was released, with the percentage of ?first grade plants? in Hunan up by 15 percent and Jiangxi Provinces up nine percent, respectively, over the previous year. Spring rapeseed area in the northwest provinces is also expected to increase. CNGOIC estimated that current domestic rapeseed crushing capacity at 40 MMT, with a utilization rate of less than 40 percent. COFCO estimates rapeseed crushing capacity at 36 MMT. Underutilized crush capacity will continue to boost the demand for rapeseed imports which are forecast for MY12/13 at 1.8 MMT, up from the estimated 1.6 MMT in MY11/12. China?s policy on rapeseed imports, which requires entry only in non-rapeseed producing regions due to phytosanitary concerns, continues unchanged. This policy primarily affects Canada and Australia. In 2011, COFCO?s opened three new rapeseed crushing facilities (in Hubei and Anhui) and another four (in Fujian, Guangxi, Jiangsu and Hubei) were added by other companies. The new rapeseed crushing facilities, located in non-rapeseed producing region including Fujian and Guangxi, have expedited imports of rapeseed with about 600,000 MT imports for the first quarter of MY11/12. Peanuts Peanut production in China is primarily for food and crushing for vegetable oil. MY12/13 peanut production is forecast at 16 MMT based on a stable planted area of 4.7 MHa, with yields, over the past four years, averaging 3.4 MT/Ha. Peanut production has been on the rise for the past two years due to more favorable prices which resulted in a 15.6 MMT harvest in MY10/11. CNGOIC reports that MY11/12 gross peanut profits exceeded $5,000/Ha, much higher than other cash crops in the large peanut-producing provinces of Henan, Shandong, Liaoning and Hebei, which is expected to help maintain peanut planting area in MY12/13. Top Five Peanut Producing Provinces (MY09/10 and MY10/11; 1,000 Ha & 1,000 MT) MY MY09/10 MY10/11 MY10/11 Planted Area Net Growth Area Prod Area Prod Henan 975 4,126 989 4,276 +14 Shandong 775 3,308 805 3,390 +30 Hebei 389 1,339 367 1,292 -22 Liaoning 261 535 332 961 +72 Anhui 181 751 194 864 +14 Nation 4,377 14,707 4,527 15,644 +150 Note: MY11/12 statistics by province not yet available Although peanut production is on the rise, exports are expected to remain stable at 800,000MT in MY 12/13 for several reasons. Industry sources report that the elimination of the Value Added Tax (VAT) rebate (approximately five percent) for peanut exports in 2008 cut profit margins. Japan, the largest destination for China?s peanut products, has strict MRLs for pesticides including BHC and acetochlor and the European Union has strict aflatoxin residue limits, both of which are depressing exports. The current high domestic peanut price is also likely to dampen the export lure, although the world demand for Chinese peanuts is expected to grow due to anticipated reduced production in other peanut-producing countries like India. In MY10/11, the GOC instituted a trial program to provide a seed subsidy for peanuts in an effort to stimulate production and improve the self-sufficiency rate for vegetable oil. Peanut oil, usually priced higher than soy and rapeseed oils, currently accounts for about 10 percent of total vegetable oil consumption in China. Experts state peanut?s oil content ranges from 48 to 56 percent, compared to 20 percent for soybeans. However, peanut meal has lower protein quality than soybean meal. Some provinces, such as Liaoning, will continue to support peanut production and processing in resource-depleted regions in their provinces. Cottonseed Cottonseed production in MY12/13 is forecast at 11.4 MMT from the estimated 12.4 MMT in the previous year, based on an anticipated decline in cotton planting area in major cotton-producing regions. Despite the GOC?s cotton price support in MY11/12, cotton farmer?s income fell significantly from the previous year after prices dropped by 30 to 40 percent and production costs increased. Based on various sources, Post forecasts MY12/13 cottonseed planting area will decrease by 10 percent thus reducing cotton seed production to 11.4 MMT. Driven by increased demand and diversified use such as mushroom farming, China?s cottonseed imports exceeded 300,000 MT in MY10/11. China?s buyers are increasingly interested in sourcing cottonseed from the United States. The US cottonseed still faces restrictions related to ?Risk Evaluation? procedure and GMO issues. Currently, USDA is engaged with AQSIQ to complete the ?Risk Evaluation? process. Other The camellia production plan in southern provinces moved forward. China?s State Council approved the State Forestry Administration (SFA) Mid-term Development Plan on Camellia (2008-2020) in November 2009. The plan is targeted at increasing camellia planted area to add oil production of 2.5 MMT by 2020. The 2010 camellia oil production was estimated at 300,000 MT. Camellia is grown on hilly land without no competing crops in Hunan, Jiangxi and Guangxi Provinces. Recent industry reports showed an investment boom in camellia in Hubei and Jiangxi Provinces since 2010. While camellia production will remain small in the oilseed complex in the short term, reaching this goal would lift camellia oil to the number three position in domestic vegetable oil production. Oilseed Meal Situation and Outlook Total Meals MY12/13 protein meal (including fish meal) production is forecast at 67.1 MMT, up 5.8 percent over the 63.4 MMT in the previous year, a rise attributable to increased crushing of imported soybeans and rapeseed. MY12/13 total protein meal supply is forecast to reach 69.5 MMT if the forecast 2.4 MMT of meal imports (rapeseed meal and fish meal) are included. Soybean meal dominates the protein meal sector, accounting for 75 percent of total meal production followed by rapeseed meal (14 percent) and cottonseed meal (6 percent). Total protein meal consumption in MY12/13 is forecast at 67.5 MMT, up 3.2 MMT or five percent over MY11/12 due to strong industrialized feed demand from the animal production and aquaculture sectors. Imports of rapeseed meal and fish meal are forecast to remain stable at one MMT and 1.22 MMT in MY 12/13, respectively. China?s 12th Five Year (2011-2015) Plan for Feed Industry Development forecasts total industrialized feed production for meat, eggs and milk production will reach 200 MMT by 2015, with an average yearly net increase of 7.6 MMT from 2011 to 2015. MOA?s estimated total feed production in 2011 is 169 MMT, a net increase of 7 MMT over 2010. China?s 12th Five Year Plan - Animal and Feed Production Target (in MMT) Year Total Meat Eggs Milk Industry Feed 2015 85 29 40 200 2010 79.2 27.6 37.5 162 Average yearly growth 1.16 0.28 0.5 7.6 Source: MOA Additionally, the development plan encourages modernization and scale/concentrated animal farming. Note: ?scale? farming definition in China: swine farm with 500 head or above slaughtered yearly poultry farm with 500 birds or above dairy farm with 100 head or above The following table shows the growth of scale animal farming production from 2005 through 2010. China Academy of Agriculture Science?s research indicates scale swine farming is the fastest growing sector in recent years, especially in the plains region, such as Henan and Liaoning Provinces, while this process is slower in hilly regions. Scale farming development is expected to continue flourishing through 2015. China?s Animal Scale Farming Development (2005 -2015) Percentage out of total farms Scale swine farms Scale poultry farms Scale dairy farms 2015 50% 92% or above 38% 2010 34% 82% 28% 2005 16% 66% 11% Source: MOA MOA estimates total meat, eggs, and milk production for 2011 at 79.5 MMT, 27.75 MMT and 38.25 MMT, up 0.3 percent, 0.4 percent and 2.1 percent over the previous year, respectively. Additionally, aquaculture continues to grow with total cultured aquatic products estimated to exceed 40 MMT in 2011, up five percent over the previous year. The following table shows total feed consumption for pork and egg production based on a normal feed conversion rate. China?s feed consumption could largely exceed the MOA official feed production based on the major animal product production. Feed Demand Estimates Based on Major Animal Products Volume Pork Eggs Feed Demand Estimates MOA reported feed production 2011 50.5 27.75 219 169 2010 50.7 27.65 221 162 Note: Feed conversion rate for Pork - 3:1 and for Eggs -2.5:1 The following table shows the growing trend of China?s production of animal and aquatic products and industrialized feed from 2006 to 2011. Total industry feed production in 2011 increased 37 percent over 2007. The increasing use of industrialized feed by the animal husbandry and aquaculture sectors will continue to drive protein meal consumption. Source: NSB Statistics Yearbook Table 12-19/20; 2011-MOA Report Swine feed production recovered rapidly to an estimated 59.5 MMT in 2010, up 13 percent over the previous year or a net increase of 7 MMT (this would add more than one MMT of SBM use based on average inclusion rate of 16 percent). MOA reported a net growth of 7 MMT of industry feed in 2011 which is expected to consume an additional 1.26 MMT of SBM based on an average inclusion rate of 18 percent. Source: NSB Statistics Yearbook China?s per capita expenditures for animal proteins (including all meats, poultry, eggs, and aquatic products) for 2010 averaged $200, up from the $186 in the previous year. Spending varies widely among regions, with the highest spending in Guangdong ($356) and the lowest in Shanxi province ($86). Large cities and a few coastal provinces are well above average and skew the national median expenditure; most regions lie well below the national average (See chart 4 - Source: Table 9-9 and 9-29 2011 China Statistical Yearbook). In addition, annual per capita consumption of protein food in urban versus rural communities in 2010 differed, on average, by 27.7 Kg. Potential increases in protein consumption amongst 671 million rural people (out of the 1,341 million; Source: 2011 China Statistical Yearbook) opens opportunities for higher protein meal demands. The consumption of milk and related products remains low among the rural population (3.6 Kg) in 2010 compared to the urban population (14 Kg). As rural incomes rise, the undeveloped potential of rural residents to consume more animal protein products will create additional demand for protein meal in feed products. (See Chart 6). Source: NSB Statistics Yearbook Overall increases in animal protein product demand are also fueled by population growth and urbanization. According to NSB, China?s average annual net population growth was 6.54 million from 2008 to 2010. Additionally, the annual growth in urban populations averaged 14 million from 2007 to 2009, and 24.6 million new urban residents were added in 2010. China?s animal and aquaculture sectors are expected to maintain steady growth in 2012 to meet the growing demand for animal protein products. According to NSB, total meat, egg and milk production in 2011 reached 79.5 MMT, 27.75 MMT and 38.25 MMT, respectively. Post GAIN CH Livestock Annual and Poultry Annual also forecasts total meat, egg and milk production to grow in 2012 to 81.4 MMT, 28.6 MMT and 37.7 MMT, respectively. Total cultured aquatic production in 2012 is forecast to grow by 3 percent to 41 MMT from the MOA estimates of 40 MMT in 2011. Though difficult to capture the conversion of animal production gains into protein meal consumption growth, protein meal ingredients are positioned to grow along with the overall livestock and aquaculture sectors. Self-mix feed use by traditional small-scale swine operations is increasingly phasing out as the scale of operations expands and the need for large amounts of premixed feed abounds. Total SBM inclusion is expected to increase along with the growth of industrialized feed production. To meet the growing animal husbandry and aquaculture demand, industrialized feed production will increase in MY12/13, thus raising protein meal consumption (particularly SBM). Post forecasts total feed production will reach 176 MMT in 2012 from MOA?s estimated 169 MMT in 2011(up 5.4 percent over the previous year). Soybean Meal Production SBM production in MY12/13 is forecast at 50.3 MMT, up 8.6 percent from the estimated 46.3 MMT in MY11/12. As other protein meal production remains stable and imports of protein meals are constrained by limited resources at high prices (for fish meal) and relatively lower value (for rapeseed meal), SBM remains the best choice for industry feed production and increasingly concentrated animal producton. With the excessive soybean crushing capacity using growing imports of soybeans, domestic SBM production is expected to continue to be high with adequate supply to meet the market demand in MY12/13 and beyond. The current relatively low SBM price (See Table -23) is expected to drive a steady growth of SBM consumption in MY11/12. Trade SBM trade is expected to decline in MY12/13 with exports forecast at 600,000 MT and imports at 100,000 MT. SBM trade remained insignificant in recent years because large domestic SBM production and consumption dominates the market. Japan remains the largest market, accounting for 65 percent of China 345,000 MT SBM exports in MY10/11. Industry analysts expect sporadic imports and exports of SBM as traders take advantage of regional or local price differences and exports of non-biotech SBM. SBM imports will remain insignificant as they are less competitive compared to the excessive domestic soybean crushing sector. The GOC suspended imports of SBM from India beginning in early 2012 reflecting the GOC?s preference for domestically crushed oilseed meals in lieu of other inexpensive priced meals. Rapeseed Meal Post forecast MY12/13 rapeseed meal imports at one MMT, similar to the estimated imports in MY11/12. China?s imports of rapeseed meal surged to above one MMT per year in MT09/10 and MY10/11 from about 240,000 MT in MY08/09. The import growth is partly boosted by increased domestic demand (while domestic production lags behind demand growth) and its price competitiveness. Additionally, the GOC?s phytosanitary restriction has reduced rapeseed imports since 2010. Lower imports of DDGS due to the uncertainty related to China?s anti-dumping investigation also attributed to the growth of rapeseed meal imports. In the long term, however, China?s excessive rapeseed crushing capacity is expected to favor rapeseed imports instead of rapeseed meal. Fishmeal Fishmeal imports in MY12/13 are forecast at 1.22 MMT, up slightly from 1.2 MMT in MY11/12. Domestic fishmeal production remains low at about 220,000 MT per year. Imports in MY10/11 stood at 1.16 MMT. The current availability of SBM at affordable price is likely to hinder fish meal use. However, imports in MY12/13 are forecast to be stable given the demand by large-scale animal and aquaculture industries. Imported fishmeal will face a new hygiene certificate. On August 23, 2010, AQSIQ informed the U.S. Embassy Beijing that Decree 118 and its Regulating Inspection and Quarantine of Import and Export Feed and Feed Additives of July 20, 2009 would go into effect at the beginning of 2011. With these measures, U.S. exports of aquatic origin protein would face import requirements that include facility registration and new hygiene and quarantine requirements. USDA and NOAA conducted consultations with the Chinese regulatory agencies and requested they continue to authorize importation of U.S.-origin fishmeal under existing protocols and requirements until a new agreement can be reached. Currently, the Chinese regulatory agency granted a transitional period for US fishmeal exports to the end of June 2012 when a bilateral consensus on this issue is scheduled to be reached. As discussions continue on this new requirement, traders should consult with importing partners for specific requirements for exporting fishmeal and fish oil to China during the period when the U.S. government is consulting with the GOC on this issue (See more in GAIN CH Fishery Annual). Oil Situation and Outlook Total Oils Due to increased crush volume using imported soybeans and rapeseed, total vegetable oil production for MY12/13 is forecast at 20.7 MMT, up 860,000 MT from the MY11/12 estimate. Soybean oil is expected to remain the number one vegetable oil produced in China, accounting for 55 percent of total oil production, followed by rapeseed oil (23 percent), peanut oil (11 percent), and cottonseed oil (6 percent) in MY12/13. Total oil imports for MY12/13 are forecast to increase to 8.7 MMT from the estimated 8.5 MMT last year due to growing demand and inadequate domestic supply. The MY12/13 total oil supply is forecast at 30.7 MMT with total domestic food- use consumption of oils forecast at 27.3 MMT, four percent more than MY11/12, with industrial use forecast at 2.15 MMT. Soybean oil imports, which had been lower following a ban on Argentine oil imports during 2010, are expected to continue to rebound to 1.4 MMT in MY12/13 (from the estimated 1.3 MMT in MY11/12) as Argentine imports returns to previous levels. US soy oil exports rose temporarily during the Argentine ban but are expected to resume lower levels in light of Argentina?s return to the market. China?s high GDP growth and growing consumer affluence is forecast to increase vegetable oil demand by more than 1.1 MMT in MY 12/13 to meet food and industrial consumption of soybean oil. The forecast per capita consumption of vegetable oil of 20.1 Kg for food use in MY12/13 (based on total population of 1,341 million as of 2010) which is still 20 percent less than Taiwan?s 2005 per capita consumption of 25.1 kg (See FAS/Taiwan report, TW7001). Even though China?s oil consumption has grown rapidly in recent years, there is still significant growth potential before it reaches a level similar to comparable markets like Taiwan. Chart 6 shows a steady upward trend of annual per capita vegetable oil purchases for rural residents with a slight decline for urban resident in recent years (Source: Table 10-9 and 29/2011 China Statistics Year Book). Industry sources believe this could reflect increased dining out and health concerns regarding oil consumption levels by urbanites. In addition, National Statistics Bureau?s data shows rural purchases consume about 2.5 Kg less vegetable oil per capita per year than urban consumers, indicating a potential for higher intake for 671 million rural people. Source: NSB Statistics Yearbook The per capita expenditure by urban residents for restaurant meals continued to show rapid growth in 2010, reaching an average of $152 (compared to US$144 in the previous year). Shanghai residents had the highest expenditure (US$287) with the lowest in Heilongjiang (US$100). (See chart 8; Source: Table 10-16/2011 China Statistics Year Book). With a government forecast above eight percent GDP growth in 2012, a growing middle class with higher disposable income eating more meals outside the home, plus more than 120 million migrant workers who are now also urban dwellers, the demand outlook for vegetable oil and oilseed imports remains strong. Source: NSB Statistics Yearbook Vegetable oil consumption is also driven by the food processing industry. For instance, the instant noodle industry, which uses large amounts of palm oil, produced more than 7.5 MMT of noodles in the first eleven months of 2011, up 22.8 percent over the previous year. The wholesale price for major oils decreased rapidly in the 4th quarter of 2011, with a December price for palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil, down 24 percent, 16 percent and three percent, respectively over January 2011 (See table 24 to 26 ? source: CNGOIC). The high price continued in January 2011 mainly due to the widely anticipated inflation rate rise and growth of CPI. The price for rapeseed oil among the three major oils, however, saw the lowest decline, and remains 13 percent higher than soy oil. Palm oil price is 12 percent lower than soybean oil. The lower price for soybean oil and palm oil are likely to boost blended salad oil share in market in coming months. Soybean Oil The MY12/13 soybean oil production forecast is 11.35 MMT, up 8.6 percent from last year?s estimate due to increased crushing of imported soybeans. MY12/13 imports are forecast at 1.4 MMT. Soybean oil remains the dominant vegetable oil, accounting for 46 percent for domestic vegetable oil consumption in MY12/13 (Chart 9). Argentina is expected to resume its status as a major soybean oil supplier to China in MY12/13 after China lifted the import ban and traders? confidence recovered. The GTA data show soy oil imports from Argentine in the first quarter of MY11/12 exceeded 150,000 MT, accounting for 52 percent of total imports. Palm Oil MY12/13 palm oil imports are forecast to increase moderately to 6.2 MMT from the estimated 6.1 MMT in MY11/12. Palm oil consumption continues to be driven by both food processing and home consumption. A price fall in late 2011 is expected to boost palm oil consumption and import growth. CNGOIC statistics indicate the December wholesale palm oil price decreased by 24 percent from January, and remained 12 percent lower than soybean oil (see Table 27). This is likely to boost imports and consumption in MY12/13. Demand for palm oil remains strong mainly because of its cheap price relative to soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Blending palm oil with other vegetable oils and selling it as cooking oil is popular. Another factor contributing to strong demand continues to be increased demand for processed foods, especially instant noodles, which uses large amounts of palm oil. Industry sources show that instant noodle production in the first 11 months of 2011 surged to 7.5 MMT, up 22.8 percent over the previous year. Ready-to-eat noodles are popular with travelers, migrant workers, and some office workers due to their low cost and convenience. With more and more people traveling and eating outside of the home, demand for instant noodles is expected to continue rising in 2012 and beyond. China does not produce palm oil so demand can only be met by imports. China?s close proximity to Malaysia and Indonesia gives palm oil a shipping advantage relative to other oils. According to industry sources, the 2011 palm oil production in Indonesia exceeded 23.5 MMT, up from the 22.3 MMT in 2010, while production in Malaysia in 2011 will also grew moderately to 18.3 MMT from the 17.7 MMT in 2010. Statistics Tables Total Oilseeds, Total Meal, and Total Oil PSD Tables Table 1. Total Oilseeds PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Total Oilseeds (1000 MT; 1000Ha) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Area Planted Area Harvested 26520 26554 25910 25850 25680 Beginning Stocks 15373 15373 15982 14058 13558 Production 57693 56641 57330 56600 56050 MY Imports 53596 53592 57960 57506 60957 MY Imp. from U.S. 24983 24983 19000 26000 26500 MY Imp. from the EC 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 126662 125606 131272 128364 130565 MY Exports 985 1069 1200 1100 1210 MY Exp. to the EC 200 200 210 230 230 Crush Dom. Consumption 87312 88134 93245 92026 96257 Food Use Dom. Consump. 16249 16280 16315 16320 16530 Feed,Seed,Waste Dm.Cn. 6134 6065 6580 5160 5220 TOTAL Dom. Consumption 109695 110479 116140 113606 118007 Ending Stocks 15982 14058 13932 13558 11348 TOTAL DISTRIBUTION 126662 125606 131272 128364 130565 Calendar Year Imports 56261 56128 58215 57590 58857 Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 27000 27000 25000 26500 27000 Calendar Year Exports 1030 1030 1050 1170 1066 Calndr Yr Exp. to U.S. 30 30 50 40 35 Table 2. Total Meals PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Total Meal (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 88512 89334 94445 93226 97457 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 60384 61082 64734 63446 67112 MY Imports 2867 2928 2460 2320 2365 MY Imp. from U.S. 120 120 80 120 120 MY Imp. from the EC 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 63251 64010 67194 65766 69477 MY Exports 535 500 605 373 636 MY Exp. to the EC 45 45 45 40 40 Industrial Dom. Consum 1691 1691 1585 1661 1712 Food Use Dom. Consump. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Com. 61025 61819 65004 63732 67129 TOTAL Dom. Consumption 62716 63510 66589 65393 68841 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL DISTRIBUTION 63251 64010 67194 65766 69477 Calendar Year Imports 2850 2180 2610 1949 2006 Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 120 120 80 120 125 Calendar Year Exports 660 1160 640 549 545 Calndr Yr Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 70 Table 3. Total Oils PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Total Oils (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 87312 88134 93245 92026 96257 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 Beginning Stocks 1133 1394 780 1320 1053 Production 18986 19447 20057 19878 20731 MY Imports 7965 7965 8880 8470 8680 MY Imp. from U.S. 374 374 100 150 150 MY Imp. from the EC 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 28084 28545 29717 29668 30715 MY Exports 68 67 59 62 60 MY Exp. to the EC 2 2 2 3 3 Industrial Dom. Consum 2080 2080 2150 2100 2150 Food Use Dom. Consump. 25156 25078 26505 26207 27266 Feed Waste Dom. Consum 0 0 0 5 0 TOTAL Dom. Consumption 27236 27158 28655 28312 29416 Ending Stocks 780 1320 1003 1294 1239 TOTAL DISTRIBUTION 28084 28545 29717 29668 30715 Calendar Year Imports 8745 8745 9220 8458 8685 Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 320 320 100 140 140 Calendar Year Exports 88 78 88 64 365 Calndr Yr Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Oilseeds PSD Tables Table 4. Soybeans PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oilseed, Soybean (1000 MT; 1000 Ha) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Area Planted 9000 9000 9000 7650 7700 Area Harvested 8520 8520 7650 7650 7700 Beginning Stocks 13259 13259 14558 14058 13558 Production 15100 15100 13500 13500 13700 MY Imports 52339 52339 56500 55800 59000 MY Imp. from U.S. 24983 24983 19000 26000 26500 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 80698 80698 84558 83358 86258 MY Exports 190 190 200 250 260 MY Exp. to EU 20 20 30 30 30 Crush 55000 55500 60100 58500 63500 Food Use Dom. Cons. 9100 9100 9200 9200 9250 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1850 1850 1800 1850 1900 Total Dom. Cons. 65950 66450 71100 69550 74650 Ending Stocks 14558 14058 13258 13558 11348 Total Distribution 80698 80698 84558 83358 86258 CY Imports 55000 55000 57000 56000 57500 CY Imp. from U.S. 27000 27000 25000 26500 27000 CY Exports 180 180 200 210 250 CY Exp. to U.S. 30 30 50 40 35 Table 5. Rapeseed PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oilseed, Rapeseed (1000 MT;1000 Ha) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Area Planted Area Harvested 7370 7370 7100 7100 7200 Beginning Stocks 2114 2114 1424 0 0 Production 13100 13100 12500 12500 12800 MY Imports 930 930 1200 1600 1800 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 16144 16144 15124 14100 14600 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 14170 15594 13950 13590 14080 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 550 550 500 510 520 Total Dom. Cons. 14720 16144 14450 14100 14600 Ending Stocks 1424 0 674 0 0 Total Distribution 16144 16144 15124 14100 14600 CY Imports 1100 1100 1100 1200 1200 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Table 6. Peanuts PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oilseed, Peanut (1000 MT; 1000 Ha) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Area Planted 4450 4530 4450 4700 4700 Area Harvested 4530 4530 4700 4700 4700 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 15640 15644 16200 16000 16000 MY Imports 5 5 5 5 5 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 15645 15649 16205 16005 16005 MY Exports 620 704 800 700 800 MY Exp. to EU 180 180 180 200 200 Crush 7580 7475 8130 8905 8655 Food Use Dom. Cons. 6369 6400 6325 6300 6450 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1076 1070 950 100 100 Total Dom. Cons. 15025 14945 15405 15305 15205 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 15645 15649 16205 16005 16005 CY Imports 10 10 10 10 6 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 700 700 700 800 800 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Table 7. Sunflower Seed PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oilseed, Sunflowerseed (1000 MT; 1000 Ha) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Area Planted 0 984 875 980 980 Area Harvested 950 984 960 950 980 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 1900 2297 2000 2150 2150 MY Imports 5 1 5 1 2 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1905 2298 2005 2151 2152 MY Exports 175 175 200 150 150 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 855 1248 915 1081 1072 Food Use Dom. Cons. 780 780 790 820 830 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 95 95 100 100 100 Total Dom. Cons. 1730 2123 1805 2001 2002 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 1905 2298 2005 2151 2152 CY Imports 6 1 5 1 1 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 150 150 150 160 16 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Table 8. Cottonseed PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oilseed, Cottonseed (1000 MT; 1000 Ha) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Area Planted (Cotton) 5200 5150 5200 5450 5100 Area Harvested (Cotton) 5150 5150 5500 5450 5100 Seed to Lint Ratio 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 11953 10500 13130 12450 11400 MY Imports 317 317 250 100 150 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 12270 10817 13380 12550 11550 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 9707 8317 10150 9950 8950 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 2563 2500 3230 2600 2600 Total Dom. Cons. 12270 10817 13380 12550 11550 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 12270 10817 13380 12550 11550 CY Imports 145 17 100 379 150 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Meal PSD Tables Table 9. Soybean Meal PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Meal, Soybean (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 55000 55500 60100 58500 0 63500 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 0.791532 1 0.791624 0 0.792126 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production 43560 43930 47599 46310 0 50300 MY Imports 294 291 300 100 0 100 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 43854 44221 47899 46410 0 50400 MY Exports 472 434 500 300 0 600 MY Exp. to EU 45 45 45 40 0 40 Industrial Dom. Cons. 1000 1000 1000 1000 0 1050 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 42382 42787 46399 45110 0 48750 Total Dom. Cons. 43382 43787 47399 46110 0 49800 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 43854 44221 47899 46410 0 50400 CY Imports 300 190 400 280 0 300 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 500 1000 500 450 0 500 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 Table 10. Rapeseed Meal PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Meal, Rapeseed (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post USDA Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official Estimate Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 14170 15594 13950 13590 14080 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.62819 0.628403 0.628196 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 8909 9796 8770 8540 8845 MY Imports 1413 1413 1000 1000 1000 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 10322 11209 9770 9540 9845 MY Exports 5 5 40 8 9 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 450 450 380 450 450 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 9867 10754 9350 9082 9386 Total Dom. Cons. 10317 11204 9730 9532 9836 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 10322 11209 9770 9540 9845 CY Imports 1400 900 900 450 500 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 70 70 50 8 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 Table 11. Peanut Meal PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Meal, Peanut (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 7580 7475 8130 8905 8655 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0.391973 0 0.390792 0.391334 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 3019 2930 3239 3480 3387 MY Imports 32 32 10 15 15 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3051 2962 3249 3495 3402 MY Exports 4 7 5 6 7 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 3047 2955 3244 3489 3395 Total Dom. Cons. 3047 2955 3244 3489 3395 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 3051 2962 3249 3495 3402 CY Imports 50 50 10 7 6 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 5 6 5 7 6 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 Table 12. Sunflower Seed Meal PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Meal, Sunflowerseed (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 855 1248 915 1081 0 1072 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.541667 0.542091 0 0.541045 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production 470 676 503 586 0 580 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 470 676 503 586 0 580 MY Exports 0 0 5 5 0 5 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 61 61 60 61 0 62 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 409 615 438 520 0 513 Total Dom. Cons. 470 676 498 581 0 575 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 470 676 503 586 0 580 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 Table 13. Cotton Seed Meal PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Meal, Cottonseed (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 9707 8317 10150 9950 8950 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.424432 0.433166 0.422346 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 4206 3530 4403 4310 3780 MY Imports 28 28 0 5 30 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 4234 3558 4403 4315 3810 MY Exports 49 49 50 50 10 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 180 180 145 150 150 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 4005 3329 4208 4115 3650 Total Dom. Cons. 4185 3509 4353 4265 3800 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 4234 3558 4403 4315 3810 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 80 80 80 80 35 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 70 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 Table 14. Fish Meal PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Meal, Fish (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Catch For Reduction 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0.183333 0 0.183333 0.183333 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 220 220 220 220 220 MY Imports 1100 1164 1150 1200 1220 MY Imp. from U.S. 120 120 80 120 120 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1320 1384 1370 1420 1440 MY Exports 5 5 5 4 5 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1315 1379 1365 1416 1435 Total Dom. Cons. 1315 1379 1365 1416 1435 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 1320 1384 1370 1420 1440 CY Imports 1100 1040 1300 1212 1200 CY Imp. from U.S. 120 120 80 120 125 CY Exports 5 4 5 4 4 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 Oils PSD Tables Table 15. Soybean Oil PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oil, Soybean (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 110/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 55000 55500 60100 58500 63500 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.178739 0.178632 0.17874 Beginning Stocks 205 466 203 220 430 Production 9840 9920 10758 10450 11350 MY Imports 1319 1319 1400 1300 1400 MY Imp. from U.S. 374 374 100 150 150 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 11364 11444 12361 11970 13180 MY Exports 52 52 40 40 40 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 11109 11172 12061 11500 12590 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 11109 11172 12061 11500 12590 Ending Stocks 203 220 260 430 550 Total Distribution 11364 11444 12361 11970 13180 CY Imports 1600 1600 1700 1400 1400 CY Imp. from U.S. 320 320 100 140 140 CY Exports 70 70 70 45 350 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 Table 16. Rapeseed Oil PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oil, Rapeseed (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 14170 15594 13950 13590 14080 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.35597 0.356144 0.355966 Beginning Stocks 600 600 336 859 623 Production 5057 5551 4952 4840 5012 MY Imports 647 647 800 700 700 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 6304 6798 6088 6399 6335 MY Exports 3 3 5 6 5 MY Exp. to EU 2 2 2 3 3 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 5965 5936 5690 5770 5802 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 5965 5936 5690 5770 5802 Ending Stocks 336 859 393 623 528 Total Distribution 6304 6798 6088 6399 6335 CY Imports 800 800 850 850 900 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 4 4 4 4 4 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 Table 17. Peanut Oil PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oil, Peanut (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 7580 7475 8130 8905 8655 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.314381 0.313307 0.313692 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 2372 2350 2544 2790 2715 MY Imports 68 68 30 20 30 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 2440 2418 2574 2810 2745 MY Exports 8 8 10 10 10 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 2432 2410 2564 2800 2735 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 2432 2410 2564 2800 2735 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 2440 2418 2574 2810 2745 CY Imports 35 35 40 40 35 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 10 0 10 10 11 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 Table 18. Cotton Seed Oil PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oil, Cottonseed (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 9707 8317 10150 9950 8950 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.141878 0.141809 0.141899 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 1411 1180 1476 1411 1270 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1411 1180 1476 1411 1270 MY Exports 3 3 3 6 5 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 1408 1177 1473 1400 1265 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 5 0 Total Dom. Cons. 1408 1177 1473 1405 1265 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 1411 1180 1476 1411 1270 CY Imports 0 0 0 6 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 3 3 3 5 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 Table 19. Sunflower Seed Oil PSD Table Country China, Peoples Republic of Commodity Oil, Sunflower Seed (1000 MT) 2010 2011 2012 Post Post Post USDA Estimate USDA Estimate USDA Estimate Official New Official New Official New Market Year Begin 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 Crush 855 1248 915 1081 1072 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.357372 0.358002 0.358209 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 306 446 327 387 384 MY Imports 23 23 150 150 150 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Tota
Posted: 23 March 2012

See more from Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in China

Expert Views    
China Plan for Expansion of Grain Production Capacity   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Oilseeds and Products Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Hot Tips    
Grain and Feed Market in Guangdong, China   By Foreign Agricultural Service
China Oilseed Situation 2009   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Latest News    
Standard on Soybeans for Feedstuff   By Foreign Agricultural Service