Poultry and Products Semi-annual

An Expert's View about Poultry in China

Posted on: 24 Mar 2012

The Office of the Agricultural Affairs in Beijing (OAA/Beijing) revised its 2012 forecast for China’s broiler meat production downward to 13.7 million metric tons (MMT).

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 3/13/2012 GAIN Report Number: CH12027 China - Peoples Republic of Poultry and Products Semi-annual Poultry and Products Approved By: Laura Scandurra Prepared By: Ryan Scott and Zhang Jianping Report Highlights: The Office of the Agricultural Affairs in Beijing (OAA/Beijing) revised its 2012 forecast for China?s broiler meat production downward to 13.7 million metric tons (MMT). The slight downward revision is attributable to a decline in average slaughter weight. OAA/Beijing also revised both the consumption and import forecasts downward to 13.5 MMT and 233,000 MT, respectively. The revised forecasts largely reflect reduced consumer demand for broiler meat in the face of falling pork prices, which is the traditional animal protein favored by consumers. Poultry, Meat, Broiler 2010 2011 2012 China M arket Year B egin: Jan 2010 M arket Year B egin: Jan 2011 M arket Year B egin: Jan 2012 USD A Off icial N ew P o st USD A Off icial N ew P o st USD A Off icial N ew P o st Inventory (Reference) 0 0 0 0 0 0 (MIL HEAD) Slaughter (Reference) 9,407 9,407 9,910 9,910 10,369 10,369 (MIL HEAD) Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Production 12,550 12,550 13,200 13,200 13,800 13,730 (1000 MT) Total Imports 286 286 230 238 250 233 (1000 MT) Total Supply 12,836 12,836 13,430 13,438 14,050 13,963 (1000 MT) Total Exports 379 379 410 423 445 445 (1000 MT) Human Consumption 12,457 12,457 13,020 13,015 13,605 13,430 (1000 MT) Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Consumption 12,457 12,457 13,020 13,015 13,605 13,518 (1000 MT) Total Use 12,836 12,836 13,430 13,438 14,050 13,963 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 12,836 12,836 13,430 13,438 14,050 13,963 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 61 61 30 46 24 46 (1000 MT) CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Inventory Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Production Change 4 4 5 5 5 4 (PERCENT) Import Change (29) (29) (20) (17) 9 (2) (PERCENT) Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Export Change 30 30 8 12 9 5 (PERCENT) Consumption Change 2 2 5 4 4 4 (PERCENT) Imports Percent Consumption 2 2 2 2 2 2 (PERCENT) Exports Percent Production 3 3 3 3 3 3 (PERCENT) Population 1,330,141,295 1,330,141,295 1,336,718,015 1,336,718,015 1,343,239,923 1,343,239,923 (PEOPLE) Per Capita Consumption 9 10 10 (KG) (Data included in this report is not official USDA data. For USDA official data, please visit: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline) Production: OAA/Beijing revised the 2012 forecast for broiler meat production downward to 13.7 million metric tons (MMT), which is 70,000 MT lower than the initial estimate. The slight downward revision is attributable to a decline in average slaughter weight. Trade sources noted that China's imports of grandparent generation birds increased 17 percent to 1.1 million sets in 2011; but, the bulk of these imports arrived during the last quarter of 2011 when pork prices began to decline from record high levels. In China, broiler meat is the main substitute for pork. When pork prices fell, concerns regarding oversupply, weak demand, and declining prices for broiler meats spurred some producers to slaughter birds prematurely, resulting in lower average slaughter weights. Consumption: OAA/Beijing revised the forecast for broiler consumption downward to 13.5 MMT, a decrease of 87,000 MT (less than 1 percent). As noted above, when pork prices declined, so did demand for broiler meat. The decision by Hong Kong to suspend imports of live birds for 21 days during the December 2011 to January 2012 period due to an influenza outbreak (H5N1) did not appear to cause concern among mainland Chinese consumers or impact consumption. Trade: OAA/Beijing revised the import forecast to 233,000 MT, a decrease of 17,000 MT from the initial estimate. Imports are no longer forecast to increase due to lower consumer demand for broiler meat stemming from a decline in pork prices. China?s export forecast remains unchanged. Policy: In March 2012, Canada approved market access for ten Chinese cooked-poultry processing plants. There have been no shipments to date. OAA/Beijing will continue to monitor and report on this new development. RELATED REPORTS: Poultry and Products Annual: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Poultry%20and%20Products%20Annual_Beijing_Chin a%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_9-19-2011.pdf Livestock and Products Semi-Annual: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Livestock%20and%20Products%20Semi- annual_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_2-27-2012.pdf PRICE TABLES: China Retail Broiler Meat Prices On Average, 2007-2011 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.3) MONTH 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Change 2011/10 January 11.89 14.90 14.06 14.15 16.32 15.34 February 12.26 14.69 13.88 14.38 16.71 16.20 March 11.87 14.51 13.74 13.98 16.33 16.81 April 11.77 14.80 13.71 13.77 16.32 18.52 May 12.32 14.72 13.66 13.72 16.45 19.90 June 13.05 14.51 13.50 13.76 16.95 23.18 July 13.47 14.33 13.41 14.16 17.49 23.52 August 14.14 14.29 13.73 14.73 17.94 21.79 September 14.01 14.40 14.00 15.24 18.05 18.44 October 13.60 14.29 13.94 15.40 18.00 16.88 November 13.23 14.00 13.87 15.73 17.57 11.70 December 13.46 13.87 13.83 16.02 17.39 8.55 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture collecting from over 400 markets of farm produce China Retail Live Chicken Prices On Average, 2007-2011 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.3) MONTH 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Change 2011/10 January 11.95 13.97 14.16 13.98 16.30 16.60 February 12.65 14.53 13.99 14.28 16.89 18.28 March 12.12 14.31 13.70 13.82 16.35 18.31 April 12.03 14.59 13.57 13.55 16.34 20.59 May 12.51 14.42 13.47 13.50 16.41 21.56 June 13.30 14.13 13.37 13.58 16.89 24.37 July 13.59 13.89 13.28 13.93 17.38 24.77 August 14.51 13.91 13.66 14.45 17.83 23.39 September 14.35 14.15 14.00 15.03 18.05 20.09 October 13.73 14.08 13.82 15.40 18.04 17.14 November 13.46 13.84 13.71 15.60 17.32 11.03 December 13.57 13.72 13.83 15.95 17.16 7.59 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture collecting from over 400 markets of farm produce China Broiler Chicklet Prices On Average, 2007-20011 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.3) MONTH 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Change 2011/10 January 2.38 2.64 2.06 2.06 2.57 24.76 February 2.42 2.83 2.31 2.23 2.69 20.63 March 2.28 2.89 2.55 2.27 2.83 24.67 April 2.37 3.49 2.47 2.13 2.92 37.09 May 2.60 3.39 2.24 2.00 2.95 47.50 June 2.82 2.87 2.48 1.89 3.12 65.08 July 3.00 2.45 2.03 2.26 3.26 44.25 August 3.75 2.55 2.37 2.46 3.64 47.97 September 3.76 2.77 2.32 2.51 3.76 49.80 October 3.35 2.77 2.18 2.51 3.56 41.83 November 2.84 2.42 2.08 2.68 3.29 22.76 December 2.90 2.13 2.17 2.77 2.90 4.69 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture collecting from over 400 markets of farm produce China Industry Feed Prices for Broilers on Average, 2007-2011 (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.3) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Change 2011/10 January 2.18 2.66 2.69 2.85 2.96 3.86 February 2.21 2.69 2.67 2.84 2.97 4.58 March 2.22 2.70 2.64 2.83 3.00 6.01 April 2.21 2.75 2.65 2.84 3.01 5.99 May 2.25 2.76 2.65 2.86 3.02 5.59 June 2.28 2.82 2.67 2.87 3.06 6.62 July 2.31 2.91 2.71 2.87 3.10 8.01 August 2.36 2.91 2.75 2.89 3.13 8.30 September 2.42 2.89 2.78 2.90 3.17 9.31 October 2.44 2.84 2.78 2.91 3.17 8.93 November 2.53 2.77 2.80 2.94 3.15 7.14 December 2.58 2.70 2.83 2.96 3.14 6.08 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture collecting from over 400 markets of farm produce (End of Report)
Posted: 24 March 2012

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