Dairy and Products Annual

An Expert's View about Food , Beverages and Tobacco in China

Posted on: 13 Nov 2011

FAS Beijing forecasts China’s cow milk production in 2012 will rise five percent to over 32.2 million metric tons from the previous year. China’s nonfat dry milk (NFD) production in 2012 is forecast to recover two percent to 57,000 MT. Meanwhile, China’s whole milk powder (WMP) production in 2012 is forecast to rise nine percent to 1.2 MMT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 10/17/2011 GAIN Report Number: CH11048 China - Peoples Republic of Dairy and Products Annual 2011 Approved By: Scott Sindelar Prepared By: Chanda Beckman, Jianping Zhang, Susan Zhang, and Shiliang Xu Report Highlights: FAS Beijing forecasts China?s cow milk production in 2012 will rise five percent to over 32.2 million metric tons from the previous year. China?s nonfat dry milk (NFD) production in 2012 is forecast to recover two percent to 57,000 MT. Meanwhile, China?s whole milk powder (WMP) production in 2012 is forecast to rise nine percent to 1.2 MMT. WMP production will fully recover from the impact of the nation-wide melamine crisis in 2008. Higher domestic demand for dairy products will drive China?s imports in 2012. Post forecasts China?s fluid milk imports will rise 21 percent to 40,000 MT, NFD imports will rise 16 percent to 140,000 MT, and WMP imports will rise 14 percent to 450,000 MT from 2011. China?s fluid milk and WMP exports in 2012 are estimated at 27,000 MT and 11,000 MT, up 12 percent and 22 percent respectively. Executive Summary: FAS Beijing (Post) forecasts China?s total milk production will continue modest growth in marketing year 2012 (January-December), up five percent to 33.4 million metric tons (MMT), while cow milk production is forecast to increase at the same pace, to 32.2 MMT, fueled by domestic demand. Local producers are slowly rebuilding the Chinese dairy herd following a nation-wide melamine crisis in 2008 when 15 percent of China?s dairy cows were taken out of production due to weak demand after the food safety scare. However, recovery is somewhat slow and raw milk output in 2011 and 2012 will likely remain below pre-melamine levels of 35 MMT in 2008. China?s nonfat dry (NFD) milk production in 2012 is forecast to recover two percent to 57,000 MT following another two percent recovery the previous year, the result of greater local demand for infant and functional formula. Meanwhile, China?s whole milk powder (WMP) production in 2012 will continue to rise nine percent to 1.2 MMT, based on a seven percent increase the previous year. It took China more than three years to fully recover WMP production from the impact of melamine crisis in 2008. Higher domestic demand for dairy products, combined with lower tariffs on dairy products from New Zealand (China?s largest supplier), policy changes that reduced the value-added tax (VAT) on pasteurized and UHT milk from 17 percent to 13 percent in July 2011, and a stronger RMB against the U.S. dollar will drive China?s imports in 2012. Fluid milk imports are forecast up 21 percent to 40,000 MT from the previous year. NFD imports are forecast at 140,000 MT, a 16 percent year-on-year increase. In 2012, Post forecasts the United States will be the second largest supplier to China, accounting for 16 percent of total imports. China?s WMP imports in 2012 are forecast to grow 14 percent to 450,000 MT from the previous year due to strong demand for large-size pack materials for further processing or food processing. Whey is China?s second largest imported dairy product and imports estimated at about 288,000 MT, valued at $443 million in 2011. Higher sales are expected in 2012 driven by strong demand for infant formula, food processing, and feed production. Post forecasts China?s fluid milk exports in 2012 will recover 12 percent to 27,000 MT following a 14 percent recovery the previous year, the result of demand from Hong Kong. WMP exports in 2012 are forecast at 11,000 MT, a 22 percent rise following estimated double sales in 2011. This forecast has WMP exports approaching pre-melamine crises levels of 2008. Production Cow milk production in 2012 continues to recover Post forecasts China?s cows in milk in 2012 will rise a modest five percent to eight million head, while cow milk production will grow at the same pace to 32.2 MMT up from an estimated 30.6 MMT in 2011. Despite the increase output will be below 35 MMT, the production in 2007 before the nation-wide melamine crisis in 2008. Chart 1: China's Raw Milk Prices, 2008-2011 (Year-To-Date) (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.38) 3.40 3.30 3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.80 R 2.70ecently, China?s National Statistics Bureau (NSB) announced a new official figure for cow milk production in 2010 of 35.8 MMT, much higher than Post?s estimation of 29.3 MMT. Post believes it will 2.60 take longer than expected for China to fully recover from herd losses following the melamine crisis of 2008. Local producers are slowly rebuilding dairy herds following the melamine crisis, when over 15 pe 2.50rcent of China?s dairy cows were taken out of production due to weak demand. Although year-on-year raw milk prices only increased three percent, prices have climbed 27 percent from $407 (RMB 2,600) MT in July 2009 to $515 (RMB3.290) MT in July 2011, reaching a historical record at least for the last four years. Encouraged by higher milk prices in China, operators are increasing imports of breeding dairy cows for genetic improvement, which are expected to approach 90,000 head in 2011. Source: The Ministry of Agriculture However, the pace of increase in dairy cow beginning stocks in 2012 is forecast slightly slower than the previous year due to continued withdrawal of backyard operations, which still accounts for an overwhelming majority of China?s dairy herd production (please see trend table below.) Although the 2010 and 2011 official data is not yet available, Post believes the withdrawal speed of backyard producers will be much faster following China?s new requirement for all processing plants to reapply for verification of processing qualification and re-obtain processing permits by the end of March 2011 (please see details in the policy sector). Given that the new requirement is much stricter, many small plants did not pass the verification and were delisted from production. These local processors generally collected raw milk from small or backyard operators and their insolvency has pushed some backyard operators to slaughter dairy cows in 2011. Although larger operators are taking what could be a risk to expand herd size, the pace of increase in dairy cows is constrained by land resources. Number of Chinese Dairy Cattle Farms at Different Herd Size, 2007-2009 2,007 2,008 2,009 % Change 2009/08 Annual Inventory (Head) Farms Farms Farms Farms 1-4 2,159,701 1,970,755 1,816,359 -7.83 5-9 295,789 398,744 374,541 -6.07 10-19 149,106 143,358 138,265 -3.55 20-49 42,079 51,804 49,490 -4.47 50-99 14,175 13,842 13,685 -1.13 100-199 4,421 4,425 4,324 -2.28 200-499 2,336 2,679 3,341 24.71 500-999 768 1,026 1,773 72.81 1,000 and above 339 454 706 55.51 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture Per capita yield improvement will become a long-term trend rather than fast herd expansion due to resource constraints and higher production costs. The slightly higher rate of cows in milk and 01/2008 04/2008 07/2008 10/2008 01/2009 04/2009 07/2009 10/2009 01/2010 04/2010 07/2010 10/2010 01/2011 04/2011 07/2011 improvement in per capita yield due to larger farm efficiency are expected to result in raw milk recovery in 2011 and 2012. Fueled by domestic demand for genetic improvement, breeding cow imports are expected to continue to grow unless high international dairy cow prices are beyond the reach of Chinese dairy operators, or China?s import policy changes. Traders reported that as of January 2011, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) requires imported breeding cattle must have records of three generations? blood lines. This is because China imported large number of breeding cows in the last decade, but a portion cannot be used for breeding stock due to poor quality. This new requirement could slow China?s breeding animal imports in the short term until exporters adjust to the policy, but over the long run will help China improve genetics to meet the challenges of resource constraints and high production costs. Additionally, on September 19, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) jointly announced a reduction of animal quarantine fees, which reportedly reduced individual farmers? burden by 30 percent. Inner Mongolia continues to be the largest production area for fluid milk products in China, and is expected to account for 19 percent of total industry revenue in 2011. The Province also has the largest numbers of dairy cows on hand. The largest production bases of major firms Mengniu and Yili are also located in Inner Mongolia. While higher prices and strong long-term prospects for China?s dairy demand are driving production gains, raw milk output growth may continue to be dampened by consumer safety concerns over local milk as a result of repeated melamine detections. In late 2010, the Chinese government seized 2,132 MT of melamine-tainted milk powder during a six-month crackdown. All the milk powder was allegedly left-over from the 2008 melamine crisis. Producers ignored the national regulation to destroy tainted milk powder, holding onto product for future sales after the crisis died down. China?s newest dairy standard was implemented on June 1, 2010, and lowers raw milk minimum protein requirement from 2.95 to 2.8 /100 grams, while increasing the bacterial colony maximum requirement from 500,000 to 2 million/ml. These factors have lowered processor confidence with some manufacturers and resulted in shifts of entire product lines to imported ingredients. This strong demand for alternatives to local supply will result in a significant increase in dairy imports in 2011, especially dairy powder, and China?s dairy industry anticipates a continued increase in 2012. Non-fat dry (NFD) milk production will recover two percent NFD milk production gains in 2012 are forecast to increase two percent to 57,000 MT, up from another two percent increased estimate of 56,000 MT in 2011. NFD accounts for less than five percent of China?s total milk powder production. Despite the increase, NFD output will remain below the five- year average production of 60,000 MT before the melamine crisis. In China, there are only a few NFD production lines at top dairy processing plants, namely Yili Company in Inner Mongolia and Ever- Bright Company in Shanghai. NFD production gains also come from some top domestic company efforts to develop high valued-added infant formula with better quality control to gain market shares. As most increased raw milk will continue to be delivered to the whole-fat milk powder sector because of NFD processing capacity limits, China?s domestic NFD market will continue to be satisfied by imports in 2012. Whole-fat milk powder production is forecast to fully recover Post forecasts China?s WMP production will increase nine percent to 1.2 MMT, following a seven percent rise in 2011, thanks to raw milk production increases. This means WMP production will fully recover from the melamine crisis in 2008. Strong prices for a range of food products that use WMP will encourage WMP production gains through 2012. Key channels include yogurt, ice cream, formulas for specific consumers like school students, pregnant women, the elderly, military, the sick, as well as food products such as bakeries and chocolates. Overall, milk powder demand will be particularly strong from large-sized processing companies, such as Inner Mongolia based Yili and Mengniu, which offer consumers a superior safety profile over smaller companies. Improved WMP exports will also encourage production gains in 2011 and 2012. Consumption Consumption of milk, cheese, yogurt and other dairy products differs across regions and particularly in urban versus rural areas. Regions with lower per capita incomes have lower consumption levels. Rural areas have the lowest per capita consumption of these products, even though the rural population accounts for about 60 percent of China?s total population. Improvements in living standards and consumption ideas in rural areas will contribute to higher market demand in the future, but urban populations will likely remain the main consumers of dairy products. Despite the overall increase in dairy consumption in China, consumer confidence in domestic dairy products has not yet recovered owing to the seemingly constant reports of melamine detections. Foreign suppliers aggressively tapped into the market and the term ?imported? has become almost a guarantee of food safety or at least ?free of melamine.? China Per Capita Consumption of Dairy Products, 2008 - 2010 (Kg) Products 2008 2009 2010 % Change 2010/09 Urban Area, Fresh Milk 15.19 14.91 13.98 -6.24 Urban Area, Milk Powder 0.57 0.48 0.45 -6.25 Urban Area, Yogurt 3.54 3.88 3.67 -5.41 Rural Area, Total Dairy Products 3.43 3.6 3.55 -1.39 Source: China National Statistics Bureau Yearbooks 2009, 2010, and 2011 Overall dairy consumption in 2012 is on the rise Fluid milk: Post forecasts China?s total fluid milk consumption in 2012 will rise four percent to nearly 13.1 MMT following another four percent increase from 12.6 MMT the previous year. However, year- on-year per capita consumption has been decreasing due to population growth. China?s sixth national population survey announced by NSB on April 28, 2011 shows that China?s population reached 1,370,536,875 by the end of 2010, nearly 7.39 million annual births in the last decade. China conducts a national population survey every 10 years. Consumption gains are mainly the result of rapidly rising interest in dairy products in tandem with higher disposable incomes, increasing health consciousness among the growing middle class, and expanding retail outlets. Although the dairy market sustained a high rate of growth during the past decade, per capita consumption of dairy products in China, especially in rural areas, is still very low suggesting the potential for continued strong demand gains for many years to come. The highest earning income Chinese are not price sensitive, and figure indicate they consume the bulk of imported fluid milk. Some middle-class consumers switch between domestic brand fluid milk and imported milk based on price sensitivity, while most urban consumers prefer pasteurized or UHT milk in carton boxes or plastic bags available in supermarkets or packed in bottles for home delivery. Dairy bars in the streets in large cities owned by brand companies, such as Sanyuan in Beijing, are gaining popularity among younger generations, which mainly sell fresh milk. The gap between China?s per capita consumption and the average per capita consumption of over 200 kg in developed countries further illustrates the growth potential of China?s dairy market. It also explains why China?s dairy market, facing so many challenges, has the potential to bounce back quickly after serious set-backs and still show considerable potential for future development. NFD milk: Post forecasts China?s NFD milk consumption in 2012 will rise 17 percent to 156,000 MT following an estimated 23 percent rise the previous year. Consumption gains are the result of rapid demand growth for domestic infant formula. Breast feeding in China has been decreasing because most young mothers in urban areas have jobs and cannot feed their babies after returning to work from maternity leave. In 2010, breast feeding for new-born babies in Beijing was 71 percent, while for babies at six months old it was only 65 percent. The national breast feeding rate in 2010 for babies under six months was only 40-50 percent on average. This explains the strong demand for infant formula. WMP: Post forecasts China?s WMP consumption in 2012 will grow 13 percent to 1.67 MMT, following a seven percent rise in the previous year bolstered by domestic demand. WMP has more channels of consumption such as formulas for school children, the elderly, pregnant women, the sick, reconstitution for making UHT milk, ice cream, yogurt, or food processing such as bakeries and chocolates. However, after additional detections of melamine in 2010, consumption of domestic WMP remains low due to safety concerns and large imports. Some manufacturers shifted entire product lines to imported ingredients. Continued illegal use of contaminated milk powder produced before the 2008 crisis in 2011 may hinder industry efforts to improve the safety profile of Chinese milk and dampen output gains for the foreseeable future. Policy AQSIQ?s requirement on U.S. dairy export health certificate On July 22, 2011, AQSIQ notified Post that U.S. dairy exports must comply with the following new requirements to be eligible to export to China. AQSIQ claimed to have notified to the WTO on January 19, 2010. 1. One original export health certificate to accompany each shipment; 2. Export health certificate should be bilingual (English and Chinese). 3. Export health certificate should include: a. Product information; b. Processing plant and transportation information; c. A veterinary certificate for dairy products processed with cow milk from dairy farms free of the five reportable animal diseases including: FMD, brucellosis, TB, anthrax, and bovine fever; 4. A dairy product safety and sanitary certificate. The U.S. certificate issue is a major challenge to future expansion of U.S. dairy exports to China. Some suppliers postponed shipments to minimize the risks and local buyers tended to switch to other suppliers. As of the date of this report the U.S. and China are still negotiating the certificate language. AQSIQ has confirmed the old Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) export health certificate will continue to be accepted during negotiations. New Zealand infant formula and yogurt to China will enjoy zero tariffs as of 2012 China and New Zealand signed a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 2008. China committed to lower 97.2 percent of import tariffs on imported New Zealand dairy products. According to the FTA tariffs reduction arrangement, New Zealand fluid milk and yogurt to China will enjoy zero tariffs as of January 1, 2012. The tariffs on WMP or cream concentrate to China have been reduced from 15 percent in 2008 to nine percent in 2011, and will further lower to zero by 2017. The Chinese dairy industry believes lower tariffs will encourage higher imports, especially fluid milk imports in 2012. All dairy plants are required to reapply for processing permit before March 2011 On November 1, 2010, AQSIQ published its No. 119 Announcement, which required all dairy processing plants to reapply for verification of processing qualification and re-obtain processing permits. The deadline was March 1, 2011, but was postponed to the end of March following local industry?s request for a grace period. Plants without re-verification and a new permit will be banned from producing dairy products after March 2011. The new requirement is much stricter and adds more testing line-items. Infant formula plants will have to self test a total of 64 line-items including: protein, food additives, and melamine. It also requires plants to test each batch of raw or milk powder materials, and each batch of finished products. Plants are required to have the ability to test for melamine by themselves and are not allowed to outsource melamine tests to a third party. The new policy is described as a ?dairy earthquake? by the local industry. By the end of March 643 dairy plants out of China?s total 1,176 successfully obtained new production permits, 107 plants were allowed to take corrective actions, and 426 small plants failed. By the end of July, a total of 688 plants re-obtained production licenses (117 are infant formula plants) accounting for 59 percent of the total, and 432 plants were finally delisted from production. All the plants that went out of production were small operations with daily processing of less than 50 MT of raw milk. They mainly produce UHT, flavored drinks with very little milk, or milk powder for local distribution. The Chinese industry forecasts that the new policy will impact 15 percent of China?s total dairy production for a short while, and the gap will be filled up quickly by large plants. However, the concern that the new policy will increase production costs by about $780,000 (RMB 5 million) for a small plant and over $1.6 million (RMB 10 million) for a large plant may result in higher dairy product prices, thus weakening competitiveness to foreign products especially when local consumer confidence in domestic dairy products has not fully rebounded. Value-added tax lowered on pasteurized and UHT milk On July 6, 2011, China?s General Administration of Taxation announced plans to reduce the value- added tax (VAT) for pasteurized milk produced according to the national standard GB19645-2010, and UHT milk produced according to the national standard GB25190-2010 from 17 percent to 13 percent. The product lines will be reclassified as primary agricultural products. Meanwhile, processed flavored milk is not considered a primary agricultural product, so will continue being charged a 17 percent VAT. A lower tax on pasteurized and UHT milk will encourage higher imports in 2012. Domestic distributors are required to apply for new dairy sales license On March 28, 2011, China?s General Administration of Industry and Commerce announced two new requirements for food distribution permits effective April 1, 2011. Applicants must now select either Item 4 for dairy products (including infant formula) or Item 5 for dairy products (not including infant Chart 2: China Dairy Product Import Value Shares, Jan-Aug 2011 ($1,000; $1 = RMB 6.39) formula). New distributors must apply for the food distribution permit and the dairy sale license 88,555 , 5% simultaneously and prior to commencing business. Distributors who already have the food distribution 34,854 , 2% permit are required to apply for a change of the distribution items in the permit and obtain a dairy sales 277,459 , license before the end of July 2011. Sellers without the new permit and the dairy sales license w ill2 not9 5,609 , be allowed to sell domestic or imported dairy products in China. The goal behind this new permit 16% system is for the government to have tighter control over dairy distribution to reduce potential malpr 17%actice in dairy product sales. Melamine On April 20, 2011, the Ministry of Health (MOH), Ministry of Industrialization and Information Technology (MIIT), Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), Administra tio5n o8f In,du8str7y an3d C om, m3erce% (DIC), and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) jointly published the No. 10 Announcement 2011, which bans the purposeful addition of melamine in milk. No. 10 Announcement stipulates that the maximum residue level (MRL) for melamine in infant formula is 1 mg/kg, and for other food products is 2.5 mg/kg. Both MRLs meet international requirements. This regulation replaced the temporary regulation announced by the five agencies in September 2010 after the 2008 melamine crisis in China. The difference is that the new regulation not only covers dairy products, but ex 979,005 ,tends to all food products, while the old only covered food products containing milk at or above 15 percent. The infant formula requirement remains the same. According to the regulation, violators will be sentenced to jail. 57% Trade Buoyed by strong domestic demand, China?s overall dairy imports are increasing considerably. Imports from January-August 2011 reached $1.7 billion, up 35 percent from the same period in the Fluid Milk Non-Fat Dry Powder Whole Milk Powder previous year. Greater domestic demand for dairy products, combined with lower tariffs on dairy Butter and Spreads Whey Cheese products from New Zealand, reduction of the VAT on pasteurized and UHT milk from 17 percent to 13, and a stronger Chinese currency against the U.S. Dollar are all factor driving China?s imports in 2011 and 2012. New Zealand is the largest supplier to China, accounting for 69 percent of China?s total imports. The United States is the second largest supplier. U.S. exports to China from January ? August 2011 reached $161 million, nearly 10 percent of China?s total imports. This United States will continue to be the second largest supplier to China in 2012, and imports are expected to remain at a steady pace, albeit not as fast-paced as in early 2010. During that time, imports were increasing so fast that MOFCOM sent out a warning to remind importers about the ?risk of oversupply of milk powder in the market.? Fluid milk imports forecast up 21 percent While still a small niche market, China?s fluid milk imports will continue to rise through 2012. Imports are forecast to increase 21 percent to 40,000 MT following doubled imports in 2011, much higher than Post previously forecast in the 2010 dairy annual report (see CH10058). Additional detections of melamine in China have encouraged wealthier Chinese to display a preference for imported fluid milk out of safety concerns. These consumers tend to be less price sensitive and are willing to pay for imported milk at retail markets. The strong RMB is another factor driving imports. The reduced domestic VAT for fluid milk will also help drive imports in 2012. New Zealand, Australia, Germany, and France account for almost all sales gains in 2011 and are expected to continue to grow in 2012. NFD milk imports to continue higher Strong demand from infant formula producers has driven imports of NFD milk, which are expected to approach 150,000 MT in 2011, up from an estimated 121,000 MT in 2011 and 55,000 MT just two years ago. While traders report food safety concerns are affecting sales in a number of Chinese dairy product lines, there has been especially weak demand for local milk from manufacturers of infant formula, which accounts for an estimated 10-15 percent of Chinese milk consumption. Chinese travelers are reportedly buying stores out of infant formula from Hong Kong, Macau, or other countries. As a result, Hong Kong and Macau have limited mainland buyers to only a couple of bags at a time. As China?s aged population is growing fast, demand for NFD products is especially strong because this consumer group prefers lower fat products. The United States is the second largest supplier of China?s imports, accounting for nearly 16 percent of China?s total NFD imports. This trend will continue into 2012. WMP imports are forecast to rise 14 percent Post forecasts China?s WMP imports in 2011 will increase 14 percent to 450,000 MT, following a 21 percent increase in 2011. Higher beginning stocks in 2012 are expected to reduce the pace of increase in WMP imports. New Zealand and Australia will continue to dominate WMP supplies to China in 2011, accounting for over 90 percent of China?s total imports. Whey imports up in 2011 and will continue higher in 2012 Whey is China?s second largest imported dairy product. The market size for 2011 is estimated at $2.6 billion. Driven by China?s higher demand for infant formula production, food processing, and feed, China?s imports in 2012 are forecast to rise 10 percent to over 300,000 MT following another 10 percent increase in the previous year. Low import whey tariffs compared to other dairy products also help drive imports. The United States is the largest supplier to China, accounting for over 50 percent of China?s total imports. Although the average unit price for whey from the United States has increased eight percent in January-August 2011 from the same period in the previous year, it is still much cheaper than European products, especially whey protein concentrate prices, because most whey from EU countries are finished products, not large bags like powder for further processing, making U.S. exports competitive. The United States will continue to be the largest supplier to China in 2012. U.S. cheese to China has doubled Almost all the cheese available in China?s market is imported and processed. New Zealand is the largest cheese exporter to China. From January-August 2011, New Zealand exports to China rose 14 percent to 8,344 MT, valued at $36.2 million and accounting for 41 percent of China?s total import cheese market. U.S. exports over the same period more than doubled at $4,199 MT valued at $18.4 million, 23 percent of China?s market. Cheaper U.S. cheese prices as a result of the stronger Chinese currency have made U.S. cheese a competitive choice, challenging Australia exports to China. China also imports cheese from France, Italy, and Denmark. An important change to note is that in 2010, local dairy manufacturers began to use U.S. bulk cheese for processed cheese production, a first for China. Both fluid milk and WMP exports are recovering China?s fluid milk exports in 2012 are forecast to recover 10 percent to 27,110 MT based on an estimated 10 percent increase in the previous year. Almost all gains come from sales to Hong Kong. Despite the gains, China?s milk exports remain well below levels previous to the melamine crisis (38,400 MT in 2008). While China?s WMP exports are still very small, exports are gradually recovering from the melamine crisis impact of 2008. 2012 WMP exports are forecast to recover moderately three percent to 9,500 MT following an estimated two percent rise in 2011 resulting from stronger demand in Africa and Hong Kong, approaching almost the same levels prior to the melamine crisis. Nigeria, Myanmar, and Hong Kong markets account for over 80 percent of China?s total exports. Marketing Market Size The Chinese dairy market is still growing strongly. The major products and services in this industry are: liquid milk, milk powder, yogurt, butter, other dairy products, and cheese. According to Euromonitor statistics, total dairy sales in China reached $27,431.9 million in 2010, a near 22 percent increase from 2008. It is estimated that the dairy market is growing another 12 percent in 2011. Retail value of dairy markets (million RMB) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Dairy Products 119,194.2 137,705.5 143,821.4 157,944.1 175,235.6 Drinking milk products 52,021.5 58,999.2 59,955.8 62,451.1 67,009.6 Cheese 476.2 559.6 668.7 779.8 916.4 Yoghurt & sour milk drinks 18,975.6 22,962.9 25,195.5 29,143.2 33,280.0 Other dairy products 1,161.2 1,236.7 1,371.4 1,399.5 1,479.7 *Drinking milk products include fluid milk, flavored milk drinks and milk powder etc. Source: Euromonitor (Exchange rate between USD and RMB: 1USD to 6.388RMB) China's GDP surged 10 per cent in 2010, quickly rebounding from the global economic crisis. This is reflected in China?s voracious appetite for imported goods sought by the increasingly affluent and aspiring urban consumer as well as for inputs in the manufacturing sector. Distribution channels of dairy 2010 Retail channel: In China, nearly 80 percent of dairy products are purchased via retail channels. Supermarkets and hypermarkets have become the major outlet for all varieties of dairy products. For cheese products, yogurt, and take-home ice cream the role of supermarkets is even more important due to consumer confidence in their comparatively better cold chain facilities and reliable product sourcing channels. Improved availability of supermarkets and convenience stores in rural areas also contributed to the increasing share in the distribution channel. Dairy products distribution channel percent breakdown in 2010 Dairy product Categories Supermarkets/ Hypermarkets Independent Food Stores Convenience Stores Others Drinking Milk Products* 44.0 27.5 30.1 25.7 Cheese 93.3 4.8 - 6.7 Yogurt/Sour Milk Drinks 90.1 2.6 2.6 4.2 Other Dairy Products 90.6 2.9 2.5 4.0 *Drinking milk products include fluid milk and milk powder etc. Source: Euromonitor Food Service Channel: While competing fiercely in the retail channel, major manufacturers are competing in the food service channel with specially designed brands. Brands such as Angli from Sanyuan, Yiran from Yili, LOOK from Bright Dairy, and Muge from Mengniu are designed to target the food service channel. Although the profit in the food service channel may be higher than that achieved from retail channels, manufacturers face high entrance fees determined by hotels and restaurants and delayed payment in China. Hotels and restaurants normally pay after they sell the products. This has constrained the sales volume of the dairy products through food service channels. Yogurt bars are a new restaurant format emerging in first tier cities and popular among the younger generation of consumers. Competing with juice bars and ice-cream bars, yogurt bars offer frozen yogurt and yogurt drinks in various flavors. These bars are generally located in Central Business District (CBD) zones. Their floor space is typically limited, and they have few seats, as most consumers choose take the products to their offices or homes. Other channels: Some dairy products, particularly fluid milk, reach consumers through special channels such as the ?school milk program.? In this program, milk is delivered to school students directly by government-designated manufacturers who have a good reputation for product quality and safety. In the first tier cities of Shanghai and Guangzhou, some consumers still prefer direct delivery of milk to their home every early morning. Milk directly delivered by producers is perceived as fresher and lower cost. Marketing Tools Statistics show that dairy product sales growth is directly related to investment in advertising. Hence, the major dairy players are investing large amounts in branding and advertising. TV commercials are the most important type of advertising for dairy products targeted at retail channels. The most frequently advertised dairy products in China are fluid milk, infant formula or fortified milk powder with minerals, yogurt, ice cream and dairy drinks. Celebrity endorsement (film stars, singers) are frequently used in TV ads. Some manufacturers have also raised awareness and strengthened the reputation of their dairy products by sponsoring certain political or entertaining projects with wide public attention. For example, Yili sponsored the 2010 Shanghai World Expo, where only Yili dairy products were available to visitors within the Expo Garden. Online marketing is becoming an increasingly efficient platform to promote dairy products through interactive programs. China had 600 million internet users by mid 2010. These are typically targeted at younger generation consumers. For example, Coca-cola promoted its flavor milk product, and Minute Maid via Tencent QQ. Trends of Major Product Categories Fluid Milk: Fluid milk is the largest product segment in this industry, and is sold mainly in paperboard containers or plastic packages. The two main segments that are expected to increase their market share in the future are milk powder and yogurt. Fierce competition has forced the profit of fluid milk production to low levels. At the national level, UHT milk had about 73 per cent of the market by volume in 2009, thanks to its availability in markets far from the manufacturing site and comparatively lower retail price. In big cities where the cold chain infrastructure is better established, pasteurized milk occupies more than 70 percent of the market. Competition used to be fierce between UHT milk by resource-oriented manufacturers (represented by Yili and Mengniu) and pasteurized milk by market-oriented manufacturers (represented by Bright Dairy from Shanghai and San Yuan from Beijing). However, in the last two years traditional pasteurized milk manufacturers began investment in the UHT milk sector, while traditional UHT milk manufacturers began to build up farms and pasteurized milk production lines adjacent to huge consumer markets including Shanghai and Guangzhou. The previously heated debate about whether UHT or pasteurized milk was ?more nutritious? or ?safer? is no longer featured by the media. Sales value of fluid milk 2006-2010 (RMB) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fluid milk 52,021.5 58,999.2 59,955.8 62,451.1 67,009.6 Source: Euromonitor Cheese: The cheese market maintained robust growth in 2010. Since 2005, the Chinese cheese market has doubled its sales volumes from 4,160 MT in 2005 to 9,636.43 MT in 2010 Although not a traditional part of the Chinese diet, the concept that cheese is a good source of protein and calcium has found its way into middle class consumer minds. One successful driving factor is consumer education and the prevalence of Western food, another factor benefiting the market is the overall recovery of the dairy industry following the melamine scandal in late 2008. According to Euromonitor, sales value of cheese grew by 18 percent in retail channels in 2010. As a niche product, distribution channel for cheese are still limited. Supermarkets and hypermarkets sold 93 percent of cheese in 2010. Cheese products were normally put in a chilled case with other dairy products. Only a small number of brands are generally presented: Sales value of cheese 2005-2010 RMB million 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Processed cheese 402.81 476.16 559.61 668.67 779.83 916.44 Source: Euromonitor (Exchange rate between USD and RMB: 1vs 6.388) Sales of cheese break down by categories % retail value rsp 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Supermarket/hypermarket 91.00 92.00 93.00 93.00 93.20 93.30 Small grocery retailer 6.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.90 4.80 Other grocery retailers 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.90 Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources. The ratio between spreadable and unspreadable processed cheese was about 39-61 percent in 2010, and has been very stable since 2005, with unspreadable processed cheese slightly outperforming spreadable cheese and slowly increasing its shares of the market. Cream cheese dominated the spreadable processed cheese market. For unspreadable cheese the most frequently available products are Mozzarella, Monterey Jack, Cheddar, and Parmesan cheese. Leading domestic dairy companies Bright Dairy, Sanyuan, and Yili have all launched cheese processing lines. They have also run very successful consumer education programs. In 2009, Bright Dairy led cheese sales with 52 percent of the market, followed by Anchor (18.9 percent) and Pikifou (6.7 percent). The top five brands occupy over 85 percent of the cheese market. Many foreign brands are available in supermarkets in China. Currently there are 11 U.S. cheese brands in the China market including Land O?Lakes and Sargento, which perform very well. Other major import cheese brands are Kraft from various countries, Mainland from New Zealand, President and Cantorel from France, Bega from Australia, Emmi from Switzerland, Feta from Germany, Arla from Denmark, and Kerry Gold from Ireland. In 2009 and 2010, domestic manufacturers launched more innovative flavors including chocolate, tree nuts, strawberry, and banana flavors and cheese products fortified with vitamins and minerals that appeal to Chinese consumers. Many promotions and price discounts were also offered to attract consumers, which lowered the unit price of cheese, and greatly contributed to the sales growth of cheese products. It is forecast that China?s cheese market will continue to grow rapidly in the next five years, and that growth will spread from first tier city markets to second and third tier markets. Ongoing economic development will increase Chinese consumers? purchasing power, and make high-priced cheese products more acceptable for mass consumers. Yogurt: The yogurt market maintained its consistently strong growth in China in 2010. The average retail unit price of yogurt products witnessed a slight increase in 2010, due to ongoing launches of relatively high-end products of fruit-flavored and functional yogurt by key players. These products claimed to offer extra benefits or contain real fruit, and thus were able to be sold higher price than other products. Time constraints have created higher demand for yogurt. Consumers are turning to daily usage of dairy products due to faster lifestyles, longer working hours, and less time available for cooking breakfast. Even though the unit prices went up for both drinking and spoonable yogurt products in 2010, pro biotic spoonable yogurt is expected to record the strongest value growth. The increase of 38 percent was due to growing interest from leading players. Yogurt sales increased by 14 percent in 2010 to exceed $5 million (RMB 33 million). Thanks to long-term consumer education programs, yogurt is widely perceived a health product that is good for digestion and weight control in China. This appeals to Chinese white-collar consumers. Flavor innovation with new ingredients such as jujube, herbs, and cereals contributed greatly to sales growth. Most health innovation is likely to focus on adding healthy ingredients such a collagen for skin benefits, more fibre for digestion and lower fat content for diet purposes. Imported yogurt enjoys a stable but small growth rate, as its loyal consumers are mainly expatriates or returned overseas Chinese. Emmi from Switzerland, Elle & Vive from France, Yoplait from Australia and FAGE from Greece are frequently available brands on the shelves of import food supermarkets/stores. Sales of yogurt values break down by categories RMB million 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Drinking yogurt 1,227.38 1,519.70 1,871.54 2,015.81 2,230.99 2,469.27 Spoonable yogurt 602.48 695.48 778.10 834.85 988.02 1,111.73 Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources. Hangzhou Wahaha Group has overtaken Bright Dairy & Food Co. Ltd to be the number one player in the yogurt market, accounting for almost 14 percent of value sales in 2009. Hangzhou Wahaha Group, Bright Dairy, and Mengniu were the domestic leaders in this sector in 2010. Meanwhile, some smaller manufacturers explored niche markets, striving to achieve unique values created through innovation in products, branding, and marketing. Frozen yogurt is one of them. In 2009, the frozen yogurt brand ?Qin Hai Old Yogurt? by Xiao Xi Niu from Qinghai Province witnessed a tripling of sales from $6 (RMB 40) million in 2008 to $20 (RMB 130) million in 2009. Milk Powder: Infant formula milk powder sales have grown steadily. In 2009, total sales of infant formula milk powder amounted to $4,422 million, registering an increase of 16 percent over 2008 according to Euromonitor statistics. The high value-added infant formula milk powder market is nearly monopolized by multinational giants from Europe, the United States, and Australia. Apart from the advantages in technology, foreign companies also enjoy a competitive edge in branding and channel management. In addition, foreign brand infant formula also enjoys higher trust among Chinese consumers. Foreign infant formula brands raised prices several times during the past year, but concerns about food safety have made young parents in China less price sensitive. The top five international brands - International Nutrition (Dumex), Mead Johnson (Enfagrow, Enfapro, Enfachild, Enfaschool), Abbott Nutrition International (Gain, Similac), Nestle (Lactogen, Neslac), and Wyeth (Promise, S-26, Bright Promil) - account for more than 50 percent of the market. Beingmate overtook Yili from Inner Mongolia, Shengyuan from Qingdao, Yashili from Guangdong, and Wonder Sun from Heilongjiang to become the star performer among domestic brands. Dairy Statistics Fluid milk PS&D table Dairy, Milk, Fluid China 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Cows In Milk 7,350 7,320 7,630 7,620 7,975 (1000 HEAD) Cows Milk Production 29,100 29,300 30,500 30,700 32,150 (1000 MT) Other Milk Production 1,228 1,228 1,280 1,280 1,350 (1000 MT) Total Production 30,328 30,528 31,780 31,980 33,500 (1000 MT) Other Imports 15 16 17 33 40 (1000 MT) Total Imports 15 16 17 33 40 (1000 MT) Total Supply 30,343 30,544 31,797 32,013 33,540 (1000 MT) Other Exports 22 22 23 25 28 (1000 MT) Total Exports 22 22 23 25 28 (1000 MT) Fluid Use Dom. Consum. 12,010 12,060 12,500 12,590 13,140 (1000 MT) Factory Use Consum. 18,311 18,462 19,274 19,398 20,372 (1000 MT) Feed Use Dom. Consum. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Consumption 30,321 30,522 31,774 31,988 33,512 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 30,343 30,544 31,797 32,013 33,540 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 (Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline) Non-fat dry milk PS&D table Dairy, Milk, Nonfat Dry China 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Production 55 55 56 56 57 (1000 MT) Other Imports 91 89 100 121 140 (1000 MT) Total Imports 91 89 100 121 140 (1000 MT) Total Supply 146 144 156 177 197 (1000 MT) Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Human Dom. Consumption 146 144 156 177 197 (1000 MT) Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Consumption 146 144 156 177 197 (1000 MT) Total Use 146 144 156 177 197 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 146 144 156 177 197 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 12 14 15 19 23 (1000 MT) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 (Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline) Whole milk powder PS&D table Dairy, Dry Whole Milk Powder C 2010 2011 2012 hina Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Beginning Stocks 110 110 80 80 85 (1000 MT) Production 1,000 1,030 1,050 1,100 1,200 (1000 MT) Other Imports 320 326 430 396 450 (1000 MT) Total Imports 320 326 430 396 450 (1000 MT) Total Supply 1,430 1,466 1,560 1,576 1,735 (1000 MT) Other Exports 3 3 3 9 11 (1000 MT) Total Exports 3 3 3 9 11 (1000 MT) Human Dom. Consumption 1,337 1,373 1,502 1,474 1,666 (1000 MT) Other Use, Losses 10 10 5 8 8 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Consumption 1,347 1,383 1,507 1,482 1,674 (1000 MT) Total Use 1,350 1,386 1,510 1,491 1,685 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 80 80 50 85 50 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 1,430 1,466 1,560 1,576 1,735 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 1 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 (Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline) Dairy trade matrices China Fluid Milk Imports, 2009-2011 (Year-To-Date, Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Quantity Quantity Quantity Comparison % Change Origin 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011/2010 World 12,763 15,889 9,626 21,944 127.97 New Zealand 5,577 7,420 4,235 8,994 112.37 Germany 1,678 3,077 1,627 7,342 351.26 France 2,128 3,421 2,460 3,090 25.61 Australia 1,601 1,423 889 2,042 129.70 United Kingdom 193 231 171 211 23.39 United States 36 43 16 93 481.25 South Korea 1,196 37 37 44 18.92 Other 354 237 191 128 -32.98 HS Codes: 0401.1000, 0401.2000, and 0401.3000 Source: Global Trade Atlas China Non-Fat Dry Milk Powder Imports, 2009-2011 (Year-To-Date, Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Quantity Quantity Quantity Comparison % Change Origin 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011/2010 World 70,443 88,544 60,009 80,922 34.85 New Zealand 46,515 48,633 35,911 47,627 32.63 United States 6,012 14,110 7,909 12,819 62.08 Australia 10,179 8,079 4,362 8,031 84.11 Germany 1,944 2,960 2,285 3,986 74.44 France 766 3,562 2,009 2,558 27.33 United Kingdom 2 200 200 1,246 523.00 Singapore 1 1490 1001 904 -9.69 Ireland 424 2,035 1,287 750 -41.72 Switzerland 525 778 578 725 25.43 Argentina 0 907 504 504 0.00 Netherlands 1,152 1,966 990 466 -52.93 Finland 402 706 607 276 -54.53 Belgium 539 669 668 75 -88.77 Canada 1,050 650 650 0 -100.00 Belarus 525 500 500 0 -100.00 Other 407 1,299 548 955 74.27 HS Codes: 0402.1000 Source: Global Trade Atlas China Whole-Fat Milk Powder Imports, 2009-2011 (Year-To-Date, Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Quantity Quantity Quantity Comparison % Change Origin 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011/2010 World 177,345 325,529 226,650 263,983 16.47 New Zealand 157,395 287,883 201,750 245,378 21.62 Australia 7,873 16,688 12,212 6,787 -44.42 Denmark 2,425 8,351 3,356 5,172 54.11 Chile 0 1,550 1,550 2,500 61.29 Argentina 3 1,101 600 1,305 117.50 France 6,209 1,610 778 950 22.11 Singapore 9 1,055 703 815 0.00 Belgium 29 2,601 2,375 300 -87.37 Uruguay 0 1,525 1,125 200 -82.22 Germany 142 342 200 135 -32.50 Poland 600 0 0 96 0.00 United States 51 377 283 35 -87.63 Netherlands 2,251 665 584 1 -99.83 United Kingdom 25 898 640 0 -100.00 Other 333 883 494 309 -37.45 HS Codes: 0402.2100, 0402.2900, 0402.9100, and 0402.9900 Source: Global Trade Atlas China Butter and Dairy Spread Imports, 2009-2011 (Year-To-Date, Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Quantity Quantity Quantity Comparison % Change Origin 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011/2010 World 17,569 14,904 10,294 12,327 19.75 New Zealand 14,045 11,233 7,788 9,840 26.35 Australia 1,952 1,746 1,164 994 -14.60 France 509 172 510 627 22.94 Argentina 77 766 298 277 -7.05 United States 112 0 140 185 32.14 Belgium 54 193 99 130 31.31 Netherlands 229 0 79 63 -20.25 Finland 274 136 0 0 0.00 Other 317 658 216 211 -2.31 HS Codes: 0405.1000, 0405.2000, and 0405.9000 Source: Global Trade Atlas China Whey Imports, 2009-2011 (Year-To-Date, Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Quantity Quantity Quantity Comparison % Change Origin 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011/2010 World 287,537 262,992 169,494 192,217 13.41 United States 140,012 141,524 88,035 97,824 11.12 France 49,758 35,633 20,464 26,773 30.83 Netherlands 13,745 10,333 6,757 12,626 86.86 Germany 15,107 16,339 9,484 12,159 28.21 Ireland 13,070 9,270 4,770 12,000 151.57 Finland 14,148 13,654 8,784 8,839 0.63 Argentina 5,767 4,805 2,247 6,043 168.94 Poland 5,778 7,950 3,433 3,828 11.51 New Zealand 3,701 5,050 3,866 3,188 -17.54 Australia 8,930 6,390 3,891 3,185 -18.14 Uruguay 250 3,050 1,025 2,325 126.83 Belgium 528 170 120 725 504.17 Ukraine 3,175 3,075 2,875 650 -77.39 India 384 624 560 228 -59.29 Italy 646 306 126 225 78.57 Canada 7,610 2,009 1,709 150 -91.22 Austria 2,166 1,195 1,195 100 -91.63 Spain 1,396 360 360 2 0.00 Other 1,366 1,255 9,793 1,347 -86.25 HS Codes: 0404.1000 and 0404.9000 Source: Global Trade Atlas China Cheese Imports, 2009-2011 (Year-To-Date, Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Quantity Quantity Quantity Comparison % Change Origin 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011/2010 World 16,978 22,921 15,139 18,498 22.19 New Zealand 8,735 11,864 7,468 8,344 11.73 United States 1,691 2,704 1,911 4,199 119.73 Australia 4,490 5,170 3,710 3,903 5.20 France 326 538 339 364 7.37 Italy 242 364 215 335 55.81 Netherlands 345 268 161 292 81.37 Uruguay 50 215 165 224 35.76 Denmark 139 325 173 210 21.39 Germany 168 239 149 164 10.07 Other 792 1,234 848 463 -45.40 HS Codes: 0406.1000, 0406.2000, 0406.3000, 0406.4000, and 0406.9000 Source: Global Trade Atlas China Fluid Milk Exports, 2009-2011 (Year-To-Date, (Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Quantity Quantity Quantity Comparison % Change Origin 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011/10 World 20,030 22,492 14,467 16,429 13.56 Hong Kong 19,864 22,130 14,325 16,028 11.89 Macau 165 179 118 112 -5.08 Other 1 183 24 289 0.00 HS Codes: 0401.1000, 0401.2000, and 0401.3000 Source: Global Trade Atlas China Whole-Fat Milk Powder Exports, 2009-2010 (Year-To-Date, Metric Tons) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Quantity Quantity Quantity Comparison % Change Origin 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011/10 World 9,737 2,780 2,110 6,153 191.61 Nigeria 2,567 136 0 3,689 0.00 Myanmar 1,519 1,323 1,052 892 -15.21 Hong Kong 54 319 206 560 171.84 Iraq 128 0 0 466 0.00 United Arab Emirates 46 100 0 355 0.00 Vietnam 57 0 0 70 0.00 Venezuela 5,250 0 0 0 0.00 Other 116 902 852 121 -85.80 HS Codes: 0402.2100, 0402.2900, 0402.9100, and 0402.9900 Source: Global Trade Atlas China raw milk prices China Milk Prices On Average, 2008-2011 (Year-To-Date) (RMB/KG, $1=RMB6.39) MONTH 2008 2009 2010 2011 % Change 2011/10 January 2.98 2.79 3.02 3.20 5.96 February 3.03 2.74 3.04 3.24 6.58 March 2.96 2.69 3.10 3.25 4.84 April 2.94 2.65 3.16 3.25 2.85 May 2.93 2.61 3.23 3.26 0.93 June 2.98 2.59 3.31 3.28 -0.91 July 2.86 2.60 3.27 3.29 0.61 August 2.81 2.60 3.00 September 2.81 2.61 3.04 October 2.79 2.65 3.08 November 2.80 2.68 3.14 December 2.82 2.75 3.18 Source: The Ministry of Agriculture (End of the report)
Posted: 13 November 2011

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