In MY 2010/11, wheat area is forecast to increase expecting better governmental procurement prices. The total wheat area for MY 2008/09 was about 1.32 MHA, a small increase over MY 2007/08
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE
BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.
Required Report - public distribution
GAIN Report Number:
Grain and Feed Annual
Black Sea Inundates Egypt
Salah Mansour/Cynthia Iglesias
Wheat production is forecast to partially recover in MY 2010/11 as farmers expect better
governmental procurement prices. Egypt is expected to import about 9.5 MMT of wheat in MY
2009/10 and 10 MMT in MY 2010/11. Russia and other Black Sea origins will likely continue to
dominate the Egyptian market, as U.S. prices continue to be well above world prices. With about 2
MMT expected exports in MY 2009/10 and 2.1 MMT forecast in MY 2010/11, the U.S. continues
to dominate the Egyptian corn market representing over 50% of the market share, but faces
increased competition. The Ministry of Trade and Industry currently restricts rice imports by
auctioning limited export quota rights to traders. Egypt's total rice exports are expected to reach 500
TMT in MY 2009/10 but decrease to about 400 TMT in 2010/11 due to the expected decrease in the
area cultivated with rice.
Wheat is planted in October/November and harvested in April/May. Ministry of Agriculture
experts estimate that planted area decreased slightly in MY 2009/10 from the 2008/09 level due
to the dissatisfaction of farmers about the announced procurement price. In MY 2010/11, wheat
area is forecast to increase expecting better governmental procurement prices. The total wheat
area for MY 2008/09 was about 1.32 MHA, a small increase over MY 2007/08. Production for
2009/2010 is estimated to be 8.1 MMT and it is forecasted to be 8.25 MMT in MY 2010/11.
Total production for MY 2008/09 was 8.5 MMT, slightly higher than MY 2007/08 levels. The
government has announced the procurement price for MY 2009/10 crop at LE 1,800 per MT or
$331/ton ($1= LE 5.45), which is higher than MY 2008/09 of LE 1,601 per MT ($294 per MT)
and higher than the current international prices ($170/ton fob). It is too early to know the
procurement prices for MY 2010/11.
GASC has a target to purchase 3.5 million MT in MY 2009/10. Most observers suspect that
GASC will once again not achieve its target since the private sector will continue to offer higher
prices to the farmers. For MY 2010/11, it is forecasted that the quantity procured will range
between 3-3.5 MMT. The total quantity of locally produced wheat sold to the Ministry of
Industry and Foreign Trade in 2008/09 was estimated at 3.1 MMT, compared to 2.5 MMT in
MY 2007/08. It is estimated that about 500,000 MT of this quantity was imported wheat since
the price of the locally produced wheat was much higher. The General Authority for Supply
Commodities (GASC) was able to purchase more wheat because of the higher price offered to
farmers by the government. The balance of locally produced wheat either sold directly to local
traders or was kept by farmers either for their own use for milling and bread baking or was
utilized as feed for their livestock as needed.
The Egyptian milling industry consists of public and private sector mills. The public sector
capacity represents about 73% of the total milling capacity in Egypt while the private sector
owns about 27% of the milling capacity.
The public sector milling industry consists of 126 mills (mostly small or medium size), in which
109 mills are currently used for the production of 82 percent flour, 10 mills for the production of
76 percent flour, and 7 mills are utilized to produce 72 percent flour. All these mills are affiliated
with one holding company (Food Industries Holding Company). There are seven public sector
companies that operate these mills. In MY 2008/09, the public sector utilized 6.2 MMT of
wheat to produce 82 percent flour, 2.1 MMT to produce 76 percent flour and 1.9 MMT to
produce 72 percent flour. The private sector has utilized 2.6 MMT of wheat to produce 72
percent flour. There are nearly 36 private sector commercial mills, with total capacity of 9,000
tons per day (2.8 million tons annually). Shares in some of the public sector companies have
been sold to private investors over the past few years. Although the majority of shares are held
by the private sector, the holding company maintains complete control of these mills. Given that
wheat is a strategic commodity in Egypt, the government is expected to retain control of most of
the milling industry, particularly for the subsidized baladi bread.
The public sector mills produce three types of flour: 82 percent is utilized for fully subsidized
bread, 76 percent for semi-subsidized bread called Tabaki, and 72 percent flour for white high
quality flat bread and European type bread, biscuits, pastries and pasta. About 5 percent of the
capacity of the public sector mills that produces 72 percent flour is leased by the private sector
against LE 80/ton ($15/ton) of wheat. Although most of the private sector milling capacity is
allocated to produce 72 percent flour, part of its capacity is leased to the public sector mills to
produce 82 percent flour against a fee of LE 36-40/ton ($7/ton).
The part of the imported wheat that is utilized for producing 82 percent flour is handled by the
public sector mills that sell it to the bakeries against a subsidized price of LE 160/ton ($30/ton).
This flour is sold on the black market at LE 1,750-2,000/ton ($321-367/ton). The 76 percent
flour is handled by the bakeries at LE 900/ton ($165/ton) and sold on the black market at LE
1,200/ton ($220/ton). The 72 percent flour sells freely at about LE 2,500/ton ($459/ton). The
bran is sold at the market at about LE 1,500/ton ($275/ton). Small farmers mill their wheat at the
village mills against LE 70/ton ($13/ton). GASC buys about 1 MMT of imported wheat on the
local market in Egyptian pounds through tenders. Private sector mills are only allowed to mill
imported wheat and are only permitted to produce 72 percent flour. However a substantial
quantity of the locally produced wheat is used by the private sector mills to produce 72% flour.
The Ministry of Agriculture is negotiating with the governments of Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia
to plant wheat and other crops there to help meet Egyptian consumer demand for wheat. The
idea is forming governmental- private sector joint companies to implement these projects, but
nothing so far has actually executed.
Total consumption of wheat in MY 2009/10 is estimated to be higher than production of MY
2008/09, which is forecast to be 17.8 MMT. Post forecasts that wheat consumption will reach
18.1 MMT in 2010/11 as a result of the annual population increase, which is at about 1.7
million. Egypt continues to have one of the highest wheat per capita consumption levels in the
world. The public sector produces three types of bread: fully subsidized bread made out of 82%
flour, sells at LE 0.05/loaf of 130 grams, Tabaki bread made of 76% flour, sells at LE 0.10 for
85 grams per loaf or LE 0.15/loaf for 150 grams per loaf, and white bread made out of 72% flour
and sells at LE 0.25/loaf. Bread in Egypt is produced in 19,000 bakeries. 75 percent of the bread
produced in Egypt is subsidized baladi bread made out of 82 percent flour, 15% is Tabaki semi-
subsidized bread made out of 76 percent flour, and 10 percent of the bread is white unsubsidized
bread made out of 72 percent flour.
The total subsidy allocated for baladi bread in MY 2009/10 and in MY 2010/11 is estimated to
be the same as in MY 2008/09, about LE 9 billion. The increase or decrease of the subsidy
depends on, among many factors, the government?s ability to find alternative system, the
government budget, and the reaction of the masses regarding any reduction in bread subsidies.
The government plans to reduce the amount of subsidy allocated for bread by decreasing (or at
least not increasing) the quantity of fully subsidized bread produced (82 percent flour) and by
increasing the production of semi-subsidized bread made out of 76 percent flour as well as non-
subsidized bread made out of 72 percent flour.
This plan is a very sensitive one and the government will be reluctant to execute it if it is not
supported by the majority of the people. The government may even succumb to pressure to
increase the amount of subsidy if international prices go up and people demand it.
Another alternative policy that the government is considering is to transfer the amount it pays for
the subsidized baladi bread (LE 0.13/loaf = LE 0.18 (actual cost per loaf) ? LE 0.05 (subsidized
price per loaf) to an equivalent amount of money added to the salaries of the government
employees. Under this suggested system, all the government employees will be eligible for such
subsidy, but one of the problems that the government faces in applying such a system is
identifying non-governmental employees who deserve such subsidy.
The current flour distribution and bread making system has numerous shortcomings which result
in loss, waste, and misuse of the subsidies. Losses during harvesting, transportation, storage,
milling, distribution of wheat and flour, baking, and consumption of bread show that there are
losses at all stages. Thefts are also an important source of such losses. as is the low quality of
bread because it forces consumers not to consume all the bread they buy. Additionally, the
subsidized flour is sold on the black market to beef and dairy producers since they believe that
adding flour to the feed ration increases milk production. Some traders collect the leftover bread,
dry it and sell it by the kilo. They also collect the low quality bread that is intentionally baked
for this purpose (and is considered within the allowable percentage of bread to be wasted during
baking). They sell these quantities to the poultry, beef, and milk breeders at $0.22/kilo. A study
conducted in Egypt showed that total losses in wheat from harvesting till baking is estimated at
13-15% of the total amount of wheat consumed in Egypt.
The government has a plan to establish bread complexes to distribute the bread through nearly
7,000 outlets. This project will be executed gradually starting with the big cities. The plan was
supposed to start in 2010 and will be implemented by either adding bread production lines to the
existing ones or establishing new big complexes. The locations of these complexes and the time
span to complete the plan is not yet determined. According to The Minister of Social Solidarity,
114 locations were selected for this project with a total area of 246,528 square meters with an
average of 2,000-3,000 square meters per bakery to serve 14,000 of the surrounding inhabitants.
For MY 2010/11, Egyptian wheat imports are forecast to be 10.0 MMT, higher than that in MY
2009/10 (9.5 MMT), with GASC projected to import nearly 5.5 MMT, and the rest to be
imported by the private sector. GASC will continue to purchase imported wheat from the local
market based on its needs for the production of 82 percent flour and on the available storage
capacity. In MY 2008/09 Egypt imported 9.9 MMT of wheat, in which GASC bought 5.1
MMT and the private sector bought 4.8 MMT. During the last six months of CY 2009, Egypt
imported 4.7 MMT of wheat.
Russia continues to be the largest wheat supplier to Egypt. In MY 2008/09, about 49% of the
imported wheat came from Russia, 16% from the U.S., 11% from Ukraine, 10% from France,
followed by Australia, Canada, Poland, and Germany. During the last six months of CY 2009,
54% of wheat imports came from Russia, 17% from France, 10% from USA, 7% from Ukraine,
6% from Australia, 2% from Canada, and 1.5% from Germany. In the first three months of CY
2010, Russia and France were the leading wheat suppliers to Egypt.
Due to competition from other suppliers, notably Russia, the U.S. market share declined in
recent years as U.S. SRW prices were well above Black Sea origins. During MY 2008/09, U.S.
wheat exports to Egypt accounted for 16 percent or about 1.6 MMT. GASC buys mainly
through international tenders but purchased about 1 MMT locally from private sector importers
in local currency in MY 2008/09. Most private sector wheat traders import small cargoes from
the Black Sea area. Customs duties for wheat and corn are one percent plus two percent for
other port charges.
Both government and private sector buyers prefer U.S. wheat. In fact, in MY 2008/09 imports
of U.S. wheat were nearly split between the two sectors: GASC taking 52% and the private
sector importing the balance (48%). Due to prevailing market conditions, namely higher prices
of U.S. wheat and freight, GASC and Egyptian milling companies will likely continue to
purchase lower quality wheat from non-U.S. origins, such as Russia and Ukraine. France is
likely to drop out of the tenders as their wheat is redirected toward traditional North African
Import Trade Matrix
Year MY 2007/08 Country MY 2008/09
U.S. 2,840 U.S. 1,636
Russia 3,655 4,822
Canada 188 270
France 200 962
Ukraine 530 1,126
Total for Others 5,470 9681
Others not 0 219
Grand Total 8,310 9,900
GASC? under The Ministry of Trade and Industry- tries to maintain a five month supply of
strategic stocks. However, due to limited storage capacity that constrains the government from
reaching this target, the strategic stocks are now redefined to include wheat import purchases in
the pipeline, which usually amounts to about three months of annual consumption. Currently,
total covered storage capacity for wheat is estimated at one million metric tons, including about
350,000 tons in silos at three different ports, 250,000 tons in inland silos and 400,000 tons in
open storage, mostly in metropolitan areas. In addition to government storage facilities, several
private sector traders and mills currently have their own receiving and storage facilities,
estimated at 500,000 tons. In order to increase the storage capacity, the Ministry of Supply is
adopting a project to build 50 inland silos each with about 30,000 ton capacities in different
locations throughout the country. It has already built 14 inland silos and encourages the private
sector to build silos under the build, operate, and transfer (B.O.T) system. The Ministry of
Social Welfare will commit to using 60 percent of the capacity of each silo?s capacity at the
prevailing storage fee for five years.
Marketing and Import Policy:
The Ministry of Trade and Industry is amending the official wheat standards and has not yet
issued the new one. USWA provided written comments to the Egyptian Organization for
Standardization (EOS) under MOTI, especially regarding the proposed weed seeds tolerance
found in wheat shipments. Post plans to also ask the Ministry notify their trading partners under
the WTO SPS and TBT agreements and provide an opportunity for official comment and
changes before Egypt implements the new standard. The new standards call for different test
weights, moisture contents, protein percentages according to the different origins and countries.
The current regulations states that: test weight not less than 76 kg/hectoliter, moisture content:
not to exceed 13% by weight, number of poisonous and harmful seeds should not exceed 20
In Sept. 2, 2009, GASC raised the wheat specifications in order to improve the quality of
imported wheat. It increased the test weight requirement for US wheat to 26.59 kilograms a
bushel, from 26.36 kilograms/bushel. It also raised the required minimum protein content half a
percentage point to 9.5 percent for US wheat. GASC sets maximums for the cadmium and lead
content from any origin to 0.2 percent and for pesticide and fumigation residues to 0.1 percent.
GASC requested that wheat be completely free of Ambrosia seeds in its tenders but no company
was able to accept or meet this condition, so GASC dropped it as a tender condition and
continues to accept 25 seeds/ kilogram of wheat.
The current GASC tender requirements provides an option that two quarantine inspectors from
the Ministry of Agriculture travel to the exporting country to inspect the wheat at the port before
it is shipped. France and Russia are allowing Egyptian officials to pre-inspect the wheat even
though the imported wheat is still be inspected upon arrival.
GASC also prohibits loading of wheat from more than one port inside an exporting country, but
the private sector does not restrict imports in this way.
GASC does not allow countries to export wheat from ports of other countries unless the country
of origin does not have any ports, such as Kazakhstan.
GASC allows only 55-60,000 MT Panamax shipments. The private sector places no restrictions
on shipment size, accepting smaller quantities.
Ministry of Trade and Industry decided to ban Ukrainian wheat from entering Egypt since some
Ukranian wheat shipments to Egypt were rejected for being of low quality in CY2009.
In Sept 2009, Egypt offered to conclude a long-term agreement with Russia on shipments of
wheat to Egypt aimed at determining the quality parameters of Russian wheat and doing what
with Russian and Egyptian phytosanitary requirements. However, it has not been completed or
U.S. Wheat Associates continues to provide trade servicing and quality seminars to Egyptian
millers, wheat buyers, and traders. Although the USDA GSM-102 program is available for both
public and private sector importers of U.S. agricultural commodities, importers have not used
the program in several years, citing the potential for exchange rate risk in the Egyptian market.
In addition, Egyptian banks do not pass along benefits to importers. The other reason for GSM-
102 not being used is the 100 percent foreign exchange coverage requirement.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:
2008 2009 2010
2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011
Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul
Whea 2008 2009 2010 t
Egypt USDA Official DA Official USDA
ata P D
ata Official New Post
ost Post Data
Data Data Data
Area Harvested 1,226 1,226 1,322 1,220 1,223 1,250 1,270
Beginning Stocks 4,120 4,128 4,120 5,343 4,345 4,989 4,784
Production 7,883 7,883 8,523 7,900 7,864 8,100 8,250
MY Imports 9,900 8,320 9,900 8,800 8,325 9,500 10,000
TY Imports 9,900 8,320 9,900 8,800 8,325 9,500 10,000
TY Imp. from U.S. 1,636 2,350 1,680 0 2,360 650 500
Total Supply 21,903 20,331 22,543 22,043 20,534 22,589 23,034
MY Exports 10 16 4 10 15 5 5
TY Exports 10 16 4 10 15 5 5
Feed and Residual 50 70 50 50 70 100 100
FSI Consumption 16,500 15,900 17,500 17,000 15,864 17,700 18,000
Total Consumption 16,550 15,970 17,550 17,050 15,934 17,800 18,100
Ending Stocks 5,343 4,345 4,989 4,983 4,585 4,784 4,929
Total Distribution 21,903 20,331 22,543 22,043 20,534 22,589 23,034
Post expects increases in corn acreage to reach 850 THA and 870 THA in MY 2009/10 and in
MY 2010/2011 respectively due to the increasing demand for corn silage as cheap feed for
livestock. Some farmers are expected to switch from cotton to corn in MY 2009 and 2010. By
increasing the price offered to corn farmers, the government encourages farmers to increase the
area cultivated with corn instead of cotton or rice.
The area and production of yellow corn represented about 13% of the total corn area and
production in MY 2008/09 and the rest (87%) was white corn. In MY 2008/09 area cultivated
with white corn was 720 THA compared to 110 THA for yellow corn and production of white
corn was 5.8 MMT compared to 843 TMT for yellow corn. The yield of white corn is slightly
higher than the yellow corn (8.05 ton/HA for yellow corn compared to 7.64 ton/HA for yellow
corn). It is expected that the share of area and production of yellow corn in MY 2009/10 will
increase slightly to about 15% of the total area and production of corn.
Over 75 percent of the local corn crop is utilized for animal feed (mostly consumed on farms)
and the rest- about 2.4 MMT- is used for food purposes (either milled or consumed fresh). Large
commercial end-users and feed mills rely on imported yellow corn to meet their requirements.
Corn feed consumption is estimated to be 9.3 MMT in MY 2009/10 and 9.6 MMT in 2010/11 as
the poultry industry situation recovers from the outbreak of Avian Influenza (AI), which began
in February 2006 and was followed by a severe temporary reduction in poultry output in 2006.
Total corn consumption increased in MY 2008/09 compared to the previous year. The
exceptional high meat prices encourage increased consumption of poultry. Food industries that
use corn are also increasing. The amount of white corn utilized in governmental bread
production of (20% corn to 80% wheat) composite flour for baladi bread has decreased to only
100 TMT in MY 2008/09. This small amount was delivered to the Ministry of Social Welfare
for the production of subsidized baladi bread. The procurement price of corn last year was LE
1,286/ ton ($236/ton). The government has not officially announced the procurement price for
corn for MY 2009/10; however, it is expected to be around LE 1,428 /ton ($262/ton). Although
the government is trying to reduce the area of rice and increase the area of corn, it is not
expected that the quantity of corn delivered to the government will increase in MY 2009/10
because farmers are not satisfied with this government procurement price. In addition, there is a
small, but growing demand for food products containing corn (snack foods) and corn oil which
increase the demand for corn.
Total corn imports for MY 2009/10 are estimated to be almost the same as MY 2008/09? about
5 MMT- due to the increased demand in both from the poultry and livestock sectors. Imports of
corn is forecasted to reach 5.1 MMT continue in MY 2010/11. Total corn imports in MY
2008/09 were estimated at 5.0 MMT compared to 4.2 MMT in the previous year. With 39
percent of the market share the U.S continues to dominate the Egyptian corn market despite the
drop from 76 percent in the previous year. Argentina?s market share increased to 26 percent in
MY 2008/09 versus 24 percent in the previous year. Ukraine share was 17%, Russia share was
11% in MY 2008/09. The U.S market share is forecast to be the same in MY 2009/10 and
reach 50% and in MY 2010. Competition from Argentina and other suppliers of yellow corn
should remain modest in MY 2009/10 as the price gap between the U.S. and other suppliers is
expected to be marginal.
Import Trade Matrix
Year MY Country MY
U.S. 3,152 U.S. 1,960
Argentina 985 Argentina 1,301
Brazil 10 Brazil 60
Total for 995 2,988
Others not 83
Grand Total 4,147 5,031
Since both imported and locally produced corn meet the requirements for human consumption
and animal feed, Egypt did maintain about 1.4 MMT of corn stocks in MY 2008/09; however,
stocks are estimated to be around this figure in MY 2009/10 and MY 2010/11. The percentage
of white corn stored is estimated to be slightly higher (60%) than the yellow corn since most of
farmers production is white corn.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:
2008 2009 2010
2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011
Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct
Corn 2008 2009 2010
Egypt USDA Official USDA Official
D New N
ata P Data ost P Official New Post ost Data
Data Data Data
Area Harvested 730 730 830 735 735 850 870
Beginning Stocks 845 593 845 1,286 442 1,414 1,435
Production 6,217 6,217 6,645 6,300 6,260 6,822 7,000
MY Imports 5,031 4,200 5,031 4,200 4,220 5,000 5,100
TY Imports 5,031 4,200 5,031 4,200 4,220 5,000 5,100
TY Imp. from U.S. 2,445 3,180 1,960 0 3,200 2,050 2,100
Total Supply 12,093 11,010 12,521 11,786 10,922 13,236 13,535
MY Exports 7 0 7 0 0 1 1
TY Exports 7 0 7 0 0 1 1
Feed and Residual 8,500 8,250 8,700 8,600 8,300 9,300 9,600
FSI Consumption 2,300 2,318 2,400 2,300 2,320 2,500 2,500
Total Consumption 10,800 10,568 11,100 10,900 10,620 11,800 12,100
Ending Stocks 1,286 442 1,414 886 302 1,435 1,434
Total Distribution 12,093 11,010 12,521 11,786 10,922 13,236 13,535
Yield 9. 9. 8.006 9. 9. 8.0259 8.046
Rice is a major summer crop in Egypt, occupying 10 percent of Egypt?s total crop area. The
entire rice crop is irrigated. Rice requires a special irrigation regime and its cultivation is largely
restricted to the northern part of the Delta. It is often planted on low quality land where the soil
is fairly saline and has varying degrees of productivity. A limited amount of rice is also grown
in the middle Delta and in Upper Egypt. Farmers normally exceed the area targeted by the
government for rice cultivation despite the prospect of fines (LE 600/ feddan) for those who
violate their targeted areas. This is due to the much higher profitability of rice cultivation
compared to other traditional summer crops (i.e. corn and cotton) and the higher potent for
exporting the crop. The government is trying to restrict the area of rice and increase the area of
corn to save water.
Egypt consumes medium grain rice and rice consumption is relatively constant, as consumers
continue to prefer wheat-based products. Rice stocks in MY 2009/10 are declining due to the
noticeable decrease in production compared to MY 2008/09. There is no stock-holding policy,
with levels reflecting pipeline supplies. Buyers tend to avoid holding stocks and push them to
the export market.
Egypt is a net rice exporter. Exports in MY 2009/10 should recover slightly and reach 485
TMT. The government objective is to export between 500-600 TMT in 2009/10. The total
quantity of rice exported through the end of February 2010 was 230 TMT. The leading import
markets are: Syria (26%), Turkey (13%), Belgium (8%), Jordan (8%), Saudi Arabia (6%), and
Sudan (5%). However, in MY 2010/2011, exports are forecast to decline even further as a result
of government restrictions on the area cultivated with rice and the increase in local
consumption. During MY 2008/09 rice exports were 452 TMT, much lower than previous
On February 4, 2009, the Minister of Trade and Industry issued a decree which removed the
ban on rice exports as of February 21, 2009. This decree (no.105) permits Egyptian rice to be
exported provided that the exporter delivers through a tender an amount equal to the exported
amount to the Government of Egypt and pays the government LE 1,000 per MT in export taxes.
In the past, there were government to government deals with Jordan, Syria, and Sudan, but
since the government set a system of tying the rice exports to the new tender system, only a
shipment of 20 TMT was exported to Turkey through the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to
stabilize the prices there. There was an attempt to conclude a deal with the Syrian government
but it stopped when this new system was introduced and because of the political tension
between the two countries. Puerto Rico has imported 38 TMT of rice from Egypt in June 2009.
Most of the EU (mainly Belgium) imports broken rice from Egypt. Small quantities of high
quality name-brand rice are imported by up-scale supermarkets in Europe.
Export Trade Matrix
Year MY Country MY
U.S. 172 U.S. 130
Syria 130,509 Syria 136,415
Libya 98,320 Libya 24,312
Turkey 109,116 Turkey 59,630
Belgium 30,900 Belgium 35,456
Saudi-Arabia 21,519 Saudi-Arabia 25,216
Sudan 49,905 Sudan 27,450
Jordan 20,664 Jordan 39,612
Ukraine 29,671 Ukraine 11,435
Romania 26,345 Puerto Rico 38,000
Lebanon 15,778 Lebanon 10,654
Total for Others 511,056 408,180
Others not Listed 238,772 43,810
Grand Total 750,000 452,120
The removal of the export ban occurred much earlier than expected. The ban, which began on
April 1, 2008 ended in Feb 2009. At the time the ban was implemented, rough rice prices had
reached about $430 per ton, compared to about $200 at the beginning of the export season in
October 2007. Similarly, export prices for milled rice jumped from $450/ton to $750/ton and by
the end of 2009 it was about $ 680/ton. The decision to suspend exports had an immediate
impact on prices, with rough rice prices dropping almost $100 per ton to $330 on the local
market. This ban forced many countries in the region to source rice from other countries,
including the United States.
The government-owned rice mills are protesting the export quota auction scheme because they
fear that they will lose money if they successfully bid on the export quota, but don't have an
export contract locked in. At the same time, if they have an export contract but cannot obtain
the export quota they will be in default to the importer or forced to buy the export quota at a
premium from a successful bidder.
The private trade is better able to operate in this environment and does not have any problems
with the export quota auction except that Ministry of Trade and Industry may not reveal the
quantity of quota available or the minimum bid. The quota ranges from LE 600 to LE750/ton.
There has been some contraband exporting of rice as salt or broken rice, especially to Lebanon.
According to the exporters, in order for the Egyptian government to maintain enough quantities
for local consumption and, at the same time, reduce the area cultivated with rice, the government
is planning to tighten the export restrictions and limit the export licenses issued.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:
2008 2009 2010
Rice, Milled 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011
Egypt Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Oct
Oct 2008 Oct 2009 2010
USDA Official Official USDA
ata P D
ata icial New Post
ost P Offost Data
Data Data Data
Area Harvested 672 672 672 670 670 670 640
Beginning Stocks 685 635 685 792 742 655 489
Milled Production 4,387 4,387 4,402 4,374 4,374 4,300 4,200
Rough Production 6,749 6,749 0 6,729 6,729 0 0
Milling Rate (.9999) 6,500 6,500 0 6,500 6,500 0 0
MY Imports 20 20 20 10 20 34 35
TY Imports 20 20 20 10 20 36 35
TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 5 0 0 1 2
Total Supply 5,092 5,042 5,107 5,176 5,136 4,989 4,724
MY Exports 300 300 452 600 900 500 400
TY Exports 500 300 460 600 900 520 400
Consumption and Residual 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 3,680 4,000 4,000
Ending Stocks 792 742 655 576 556 489 324
Total Distribution 5,092 5,042 5,107 5,176 5,136 4,989 4,724