Record EU-27 Sunflower Production

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in France

Posted on: 30 Nov 2011

For sunflower seed, good growing conditions and increased acreage led to record production (plus 15.2 percent). Significantly higher sunflower production is being reported in France, Romania, Portugal and Spain.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 11/17/2011 GAIN Report Number: E 60063 EU-27 Post: Vienna Oilseed Update: Record EU-27 Sunflower Production Report Categories: Oilseeds and Products Grain and Feed Bio-Fuels Approved By: Paul Spencer Prepared By: Roswitha Krautgartner, Marie-Cecile Henard, Leif Erik Rehder, Monica Dobrescu, Bob Flach, Marta Guerrero and other USDA/FAS oilseeds specialists based in the EU Report Highlights: This report provides EU-27 production, supply, and demand forecasts for oilseeds, protein meals and related products. General Information: Introduction This report presents the outlook for oilseeds in the EU-27. The data in this report is based on the views of Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) analysts in the EU and is not official USDA data. This report was a group effort of the following FAS analysts: Stefano Baldi FAS/Rome covering Italy Karin Bendz USEU/FAS Brussels covering EU policy Ornella Bettini FAS/Rome covering Greece Mila Boshnakova FAS/Sofia covering Bulgaria Bob Flach FAS/The Hague covering the Benelux Countries Marta Guerrero FAS/Madrid covering Spain and Portugal Marie-Cecile Henard FAS/Paris covering France Monica Dobrescu FAS/Bucharest covering Romania Agata Kingsbury FAS/Warsaw covering Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Roswitha Krautgartner FAS/Vienna covering Austria, and Slovenia Jana Mikulasova FAS/Prague covering the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Ferenc Nemes FAS/Budapest covering Hungary Leif Erik Rehder FAS/Berlin covering Germany Asa Wideback FAS/Stockholm covering Sweden, Finland, and Denmark Jennifer Wilson FAS/London covering the U.K. and Ireland The FAS EU-27 oilseeds reporting team would like to thank Yoonhee Macke from FAS/OGA for her valuable input and support. Abbreviations used in this report Benelux = Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg CAP = EU common agricultural policy CY = Calendar year e = Estimate (of a value/number for the current, not yet completed, marketing year) EU-27 = European Union of 27 member states (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom) FSU = Former Soviet Union f = Forecast (of a value/number for the next, not yet started, marketing year) Ha = Hectares GE = Genetically engineered / Genetically engineered organisms GHG = Greenhouse gas MT = Metric ton (1000 kg) MMT = Million metric tons MS = EU Member State(s) MY = Marketing year NUTS2 = Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics level 2 = code for regions within a country SME = Soybean meal equivalent U.K. = United Kingdom U.A.E. = United Arabic Emirates U.S. = The United States of America In this report "biofuel" includes only biofuels used in the transport sector. Biomass/biofuel used for electricity production or other technical uses such as lubricants or in detergents are included in "industrial use". The marketing years used in this report are: July-June Rapeseed complex October -September Soybean complex Sunflower complex Table of Contents Executive Summary Total of Major Oilseeds Soybean Complex Rapeseed Complex Sunflower Complex Palm Oil Olive Oil Executive Summary: Coordinator: Roswitha Krautgartner / FAS Vienna Consumption and Trade Lower availability and higher prices for rapeseed in marketing year (MY) 2011/12 will increase EU-27 feed demand for soybean meal by about 2 percent. Moderating this increase is the good availability of grains and sunflower seed meal that, to some degree, can be substituted for soy in feed rations. Germany, Spain, Italy, and the Benelux countries account for 60 percent EU-27 soybean meal consumption. Imports of soybean meal, which come mainly from Brazil and Argentina, are forecast to increase, while imports of soybeans will decline, due in part to strong demand for biodiesel in major exporting countries. Increased imports of rapeseed from Ukraine, Australia, and Canada will not fully offset lower EU-27 rapeseed production. Because of this, consumption of rapeseed, rapeseed meal and oil are expected to decline. For sunflower seed, there is both high availability of seed and good crushing margins. Most of Europe?s record sunflower oil production is expected to be used for food purposes. A smaller proportion will be used for industrial purposes, including biodiesel. Production In MY 2011/12, total EU-27 production of major oilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower and soybeans) is expected to reach 28.49 million metric tons (MMT), which is flat compared to last year. Lower EU-27 rapeseed production is mainly due to lower production in Germany, Poland, Romania, and Denmark. Rapeseed yields, although down (minus 6.3 percent), are better than previous pessimistic forecasts. For sunflower seed, good growing conditions and increased acreage led to record production (plus 15.2 percent). Significantly higher sunflower production is being reported in France, Romania, Portugal and Spain. Although not a widely planted crop in the EU, soybean production also grew (plus 8.8 percent) to 1.14 MMT. Policy High olive oil ending stocks in MY 2010/11, mostly in Spain, caused a fall in prices below the Private Storage Aid (PSA) trigger level of 1.77 Euro/kg. In response to falling prices, Spain requested activation of the PSA program. The EU Management Committee authorized 1.3 Euros per ton per day in storage aid for about 44,000 MT of virgin olive oil over a 180 day period. This amounts to a payment of 234 Euro/MT. Total of Major Oilseeds (Soybean, Rapeseed, Sunflower) Coordinator: Roswitha Krautgartner / FAS Vienna EU-27 Area of Major Oilseeds (in 1,000 ha) Area 2009 2010 2011e Rapeseed 6,526 6,983 6,800 Sunflower 3,900 3,718 4,050 Soybeans 308 375 420 Total 10,734 11,076 11,270 Note: The years refer to the calendar year in which the harvest occurs (e.g. 2009 = harvested in CY 2009, marketed in MY 2009/10) e = estimate Source: FAS EU-27 EU-27 Major Oilseed Production (in 1,000 MT) Production 2009 2010 2011e Rapeseed 21,395 20,700 19,400 Sunflower 6,909 6,900 7,950 Soybeans 836 1,048 1,140 Total 29,140 28,648 28,490 Note: The years refer to the calendar year in which the harvest occurs (e.g. 2009 = harvested in CY 2009, marketed in MY 2009/10) e = estimate Source: FAS EU-27 EU-27 Major Oilseed Crush (in 1,000 MT) Crush MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11e MY 2011/12f Rapeseed 23,000 22,700 22,100 Soybeans 12,261 12,600 12,300 Sunflower 6,150 6,160 6,800 Total 41,411 41,460 41,200 e= estimate, f = forecast Source: FAS EU-27 Feed, Seed, Waste Use of Major Oil Meals in the EU-27 (in 1,000 MT) Feed, Seed, Waste Use Meals MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11e MY 2011/12f Soybeans 29,861 31,100 32,000 Rapeseed 12,560 12,669 12,315 Sunflower 5,100 5,025 5,450 Total 47,521 48,794 49,765 e= estimate, f = forecast Source: FAS EU-27 Industrial Use of Major Oils in the EU27 (in 1,000 MT): Industrial Dom. Consumption MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11e MY 2011/12f Rapeseed Oil 7,239 7,079 7,110 Soybean Oil 1,170 1,330 1,280 Sunflower Oil 300 220 270 Total Oils 8,709 8,629 8,660 e= estimate, f = forecast Source: FAS EU-27 Ending Stocks of Selected Vegetable Oils in the EU27 (in 1,000 MT): Ending Stocks MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11e MY 2010/11f Sunflower Oil 448 283 393 Soybean Oil 194 328 366 Rapeseed Oil 365 260 200 Total 1,007 871 959 e= estimate, f = forecast Source: FAS EU-27 Soybean Complex Coordinator: Marie-Cecile Henard / FAS Paris Oilseed, Soybean EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 350 308 350 375 360 420 Area Harvested 308 308 375 375 420 420 Beginning Stocks 453 558 300 277 443 474 Production 836 836 1,048 1,048 1,220 1,140 MY Imports 12,429 12,301 12,900 13,000 12,600 12,300 MY Imp. from U.S. 2,700 2,499 2,700 3,175 1,600 2,500 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 13,718 13,695 14,248 14,325 14,263 13,914 MY Exports 36 36 55 60 30 80 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 12,510 12,261 12,550 12,600 12,600 12,300 Food Use Dom. Cons. 122 117 120 124 120 140 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 750 1,004 1,080 1,067 1,080 1,060 Total Dom. Cons. 13,382 13,382 13,750 13,791 13,800 13,500 Ending Stocks 300 277 443 474 433 334 Total Distribution 13,718 13,695 14,248 14,325 14,263 13,914 1000 HA, 1000 MT Meal, Soybean EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 12,510 12,261 12,550 12,600 12,600 12,300 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 130 130 130 130 151 368 Production 9,880 9,648 9,899 9,910 9,928 9,688 MY Imports 20,730 20,721 22,000 22,200 23,000 22,800 MY Imp. from U.S. 150 1,033 200 450 200 450 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 30,740 30,499 32,029 32,240 33,079 32,856 MY Exports 472 466 570 530 450 440 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 10 10 10 10 10 10 Food Use Dom. Cons. 32 32 32 32 32 32 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 30,096 29,861 31,266 31,300 32,237 32,000 Total Dom. Cons. 30,138 29,903 31,308 31,342 32,279 32,042 Ending Stocks 130 130 151 368 350 374 Total Distribution 30,740 30,499 32,029 32,240 33,079 32,856 1000 MT, PERCENT Oil, Soybean EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 12,510 12,261 12,550 12,600 12,600 12,300 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 234 234 280 194 171 328 Production 2,280 2,310 2,288 2,354 2,302 2,298 MY Imports 543 550 900 880 800 740 MY Imp. from U.S. 1 1 1 1 1 1 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,057 3,094 3,468 3,428 3,273 3,366 MY Exports 380 380 430 430 350 380 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 1,030 1,170 1,547 1,330 1,430 1,280 Food Use Dom. Cons. 1,287 1,300 1,200 1,290 1,200 1,290 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 80 50 120 50 90 50 Total Dom. Cons. 2,397 2,520 2,867 2,670 2,720 2,620 Ending Stocks 280 194 171 328 203 366 Total Distribution 3,057 3,094 3,468 3,428 3,273 3,366 1000 MT, PERCENT MY 2011/12 In MY 2011/12, feed demand for soybean meal is estimated to be 32 MMT, i.e., a more than two percent increase over MY 2010/11. The use of soybean meal in animal feed is being encouraged by a smaller rapeseed harvest and, consequently, a reduction in the price-competitiveness of domestically-produced rapeseed meal. However, the increase in soybean meal use in animal feed is moderated by good availability of grains and, to a lesser extent, by a higher use of sunflower meal in animal feed. The biggest users of soybean meal in the EU are Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and the Benelux countries, which together account for more than 60 percent of total EU consumption. Imports of soybean meal are anticipated to increase at a rate similar to the growth in feed use, totaling 22.8 MMT. Major suppliers Brazil and Argentina are expected to use more soybeans for domestic biodiesel production. As a result, EU imports of soybeans are expected to decline by 5 percent to 12.3 MMT. Of note, Spain expects to decrease its use of soybean oil for biodiesel production, a trend that mirrors Spain?s low utilization of biodiesel production capacity. Overall, industrial use of soybean oil is expected to be 1.28 MMT in MY 2011/12. With higher imports of soybean meal and reduced demand for soybean oil, demand for soybean crush will decline to 12.3 MMT in MY 2011/12. Soybeans will account for about 30 percent of total EU oilseeds crush. EU domestic soybean production remains marginal compared to the overall animal feed demand for protein. In MY 2011/12, EU-27 soybean production is estimated at 1.14 MMT. Almost 60 percent of production is concentrated in Italy. EU producers are not permitted to grow modern biotech varieties of soybeans, although foreign suppliers are generally permitted to ship these varieties to into the EU market. Rapeseed Complex Coordinator: Leif Erik Rehder / FAS Berlin Oilseed, Rapeseed EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 6,530 6,530 6,900 6,900 7,000 7,000 Area Harvested 6,527 6,526 6,983 6,983 6,800 6,800 Beginning Stocks 1,843 1,843 1,847 1,687 1,666 1,562 Production 21,589 21,395 20,594 20,700 18,800 19,400 MY Imports 2,106 2,106 2,572 2,572 2,650 3,000 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 25,538 25,344 25,013 24,959 23,116 23,962 MY Exports 157 157 197 197 180 160 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 22,550 23,000 22,280 22,700 21,070 22,100 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 984 500 870 500 826 500 Total Dom. Cons. 23,534 23,500 23,150 23,200 21,896 22,600 Ending Stocks 1,847 1,687 1,666 1,562 1,040 1,202 Total Distribution 25,538 25,344 25,013 24,959 23,116 23,962 1000 HA, 1000 MT Meal, Rapeseed EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 22,550 23,000 22,280 22,700 21,070 21,300 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 95 95 75 300 118 400 Production 12,982 12,850 12,827 12,800 12,130 12,300 MY Imports 134 134 223 224 130 200 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 13,211 13,079 13,125 13,324 12,378 12,900 MY Exports 214 214 252 250 100 180 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 5 0 5 0 5 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 12,922 12,560 12,755 12,669 12,177 12,315 Total Dom. Cons. 12,922 12,565 12,755 12,674 12,177 12,320 Ending Stocks 75 300 118 400 101 400 Total Distribution 13,211 13,079 13,125 13,324 12,378 12,900 1000 MT, PERCENT Oil, Rapeseed EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 22,550 23,000 22,280 22,700 21,070 21,300 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 474 474 249 365 191 260 Production 9,370 9,540 9,258 9,400 8,756 9,000 MY Imports 441 441 488 488 550 750 MY Imp. from U.S. 24 24 15 12 15 10 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 10,285 10,455 9,995 10,253 9,497 10,010 MY Exports 111 111 214 214 170 150 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 7,190 7,239 6,905 7,079 7,150 7,110 Food Use Dom. Cons. 2,730 2,700 2,680 2,650 1,962 2,500 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 5 40 5 50 5 50 Total Dom. Cons. 9,925 9,979 9,590 9,779 9,117 9,660 Ending Stocks 249 365 191 260 210 200 Total Distribution 10,285 10,455 9,995 10,253 9,497 10,010 1000 MT, PERCENT MY 2011/12 EU rapeseed production is expected to be higher than earlier estimates but still 6.3 percent lower than the previous marketing year. The harvest in France, U.K., Denmark, Austria, and Spain was better than expected. The U.K. reported record production, supported by record acreage. France?s production has also increased significantly compared to the previous year; in fact, this season France replaced Germany as the largest producer of rapeseed in the EU-27. The shortfall in Europe is mainly a result of lower production in Germany, Poland, Romania and Denmark. Germany?s production alone reportedly dropped by 1.6 MMT compared to the previous marketing year. Overall, EU-27 rapeseed production is estimated to drop to 19.4 MMT in MY 2011/12, a decrease of 1.3 MMT. The EU-27?s production shortfall will be compensated for by higher imports from other major producers such as Ukraine, Australia and Canada. However, supplies of rapeseed and canola on the world market remain tight. This will result in a partial shift to sunflower seed. Because the price for rapeseed oil is expected to remain high, it is likely that consumption of sunflower oil will increase. The shortage of rapeseed oil could trigger an increase in imports of biodiesel from countries like Argentina and Indonesia, especially into those member states that have not yet implemented the Renewable Energy Directive?s sustainability requirements for biofuels. Sunflower Complex Coordinator: Monica Dobrescu / FAS Bucharest Oilseed, Sunflowerseed EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 3,950 3,900 3,900 3,900 3,900 3,920 Area Harvested 3,904 3,900 3,741 3,718 4,050 4,050 Beginning Stocks 780 780 404 437 311 362 Production 6,913 6,909 6,919 6,900 7,800 7,950 MY Imports 269 269 360 365 650 500 MY Imp. from U.S. 70 0 70 0 70 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 7,962 7,958 7,683 7,702 8,761 8,812 MY Exports 543 541 500 485 450 450 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 6,180 6,150 6,150 6,160 6,760 6,800 Food Use Dom. Cons. 290 290 270 235 300 270 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 545 540 452 460 558 500 Total Dom. Cons. 7,015 6,980 6,872 6,855 7,618 7,570 Ending Stocks 404 437 311 362 693 792 Total Distribution 7,962 7,958 7,683 7,702 8,761 8,812 1000 HA, 1000 MT Meal, Sunflowerseed EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 6,180 6,150 6,150 6,160 6,760 6,800 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 309 309 70 130 122 140 Production 3,373 3,260 3,354 3,260 3,688 3,560 MY Imports 2,007 2,007 2,100 2,220 2,500 2,450 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 5,689 5,576 5,524 5,610 6,310 6,150 MY Exports 92 86 120 125 100 115 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 170 260 120 320 250 330 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 5,357 5,100 5,162 5,025 5,670 5,450 Total Dom. Cons. 5,527 5,360 5,282 5,345 5,920 5,780 Ending Stocks 70 130 122 140 290 255 Total Distribution 5,689 5,576 5,524 5,610 6,310 6,150 1000 MT, PERCENT Oil, Sunflowerseed EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 6,180 6,150 6,150 6,160 6,760 6,800 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 517 517 442 448 205 283 Production 2,591 2,575 2,578 2,580 2,834 2,850 MY Imports 936 936 800 780 1,530 1,000 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 4,044 4,028 3,820 3,808 4,569 4,133 MY Exports 150 150 160 155 130 140 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 300 300 250 220 250 270 Food Use Dom. Cons. 3,150 3,100 3,202 3,120 3,888 3,300 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 2 30 3 30 3 30 Total Dom. Cons. 3,452 3,430 3,455 3,370 4,141 3,600 Ending Stocks 442 448 205 283 298 393 Total Distribution 4,044 4,028 3,820 3,808 4,569 4,133 1000 MT, PERCENT MY 2011/12 Good weather conditions positively influenced sunflower crop development and resulted in excellent yields. Weather was not the only factor. Harvested area expanded in major producing countries, notably Romania, Spain, France and Bulgaria. Production is expected to reach a record 7.95 MMT, with significantly higher volumes being reported in France, Romania, Hungary, and Spain. However, in Bulgaria, uneven yields resulted in a lower than previously forecast production levels. High availability of sunflower seed and good crush margins compared to other oilseeds will stimulate the industry to process more at the expense of rapeseed. Crushing volume at the EU-27 level is forecast to increase 10 percent compared to the previous MY, most notably in Hungary, Spain, France Romania and Germany. The plentiful global sunflower seed supply is reflected in higher EU-27 sunflower seed import volumes compared to MY 2010/11. Ukraine, Moldova and United States are forecast to remain the major suppliers. Considering its crushing needs, Turkey is expected to be the main market for EU-27 sunflower seeds exports, in addition to South Africa and Serbia. By the end of MY 2011/12, high availability of sunflower seeds is likely to have improved EU-27 stocks levels. Large crush volumes will result in a higher meal production compared to the previous MY, especially in Hungary, Spain, France and Romania. Considering its higher availability and price competitiveness, feed demand may be met using a larger proportion of sunflower meal. The highest increases in feed use are reported in France, Spain, Benelux, Hungary and Denmark. Sunflower meal imports are forecast to rise in MY 2011/12, based on the assumption that Ukraine, Russia, and Argentina will continue to have exportable supplies at competitive prices. Given the strong competition from the Black Sea region this year, EU-27 exports are forecast to slightly decline. Sunflower oil output is estimated to climb to a record 2.85 MMT. Compared to previous estimates, food use figures were adjusted up to reflect an expected higher incorporation rate of sunflower oil. The Benelux countries, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Romania have all revised up estimates for food use. The same trend is anticipated in Spain, where food consumption is driven by increased hotel, restaurant, and institutional demand. Biofuels and industrial use are forecast to increase slightly compared to MY 2010/11. Higher sunflower oil availability will also increase ending stocks. MY 2010/11 Minor adjustments were made to production and crush data for sunflower seeds. Trade data was marginally revised based on 11-month GTA figures. Import figures for sunflower meal were adjusted higher, with Ukraine and Argentina satisfying feed demand to a larger extent than previously anticipated. Taking into account the currently available trade data for sunflower oil, it is likely that imports will not reach the predicted level, thus the estimate was adjusted lower, while export figures were revised up. Palm Oil Coordinator: Bob Flach / FAS The Hague Oil, Palm EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 0 Trees 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 462 462 534 307 234 207 Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imports 5,422 5,426 5,000 5,500 5,300 5,500 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 5,884 5,888 5,534 5,807 5,534 5,707 MY Exports 140 141 150 150 120 150 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 2,183 2,400 2,200 2,400 2,310 2,400 Food Use Dom. Cons. 2,750 2,750 2,700 2,750 2,600 2,750 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 277 290 250 300 270 300 Total Dom. Cons. 5,210 5,440 5,150 5,450 5,180 5,450 Ending Stocks 534 307 234 207 234 107 Total Distribution 5,884 5,888 5,534 5,807 5,534 5,707 1000 HA, 1000 TREES, 1000 MT Olive Oil Coordinator: Marta Guerrero / FAS Madrid Oil, Olive EU-27 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Nov 2009 Market Year Begin: Nov 2010 Market Year Begin: Nov 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 Area Harvested 0 0 0 Trees 6,750 6,750 6,750 Beginning Stocks 515 515 419 551 254 560 Production 2,390 2,280 2,290 2,275 2,350 2,260 MY Imports 79 77 95 80 75 80 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 Total Supply 2,984 2,872 2,804 2,906 2,679 2,900 MY Exports 495 441 500 450 410 460 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 50 50 50 50 50 50 Food Use Dom. Cons. 2,020 1,830 2,000 1,846 2,000 1,846 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 2,070 1,880 2,050 1,896 2,050 1,896 Ending Stocks 419 551 254 560 219 544 Total Distribution 2,984 2,872 2,804 2,906 2,679 2,900 1000 HA, 1000 TREES, 1000 MT MY 2011/12 The EU-27 is the world?s leading producer of olive oil. Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal and France are the main member-state producers. In MY2011/12 olive oil production in Spain is expected to remain flat compared to last year. Fears over reduced final yields due to dry weather conditions during ripening have been eased by recent rainfall. Hot temperatures and drought over the summer negatively affected olive ripening, triggering a decline in yields, especially in central regions of Italy. This resulted in lower production expectations in MY 2011/12. On the bright side, the dry weather did not foster the spread of pathogens (e.g., olive fruit fly) and quality is expected to be quite good. According to official estimates, MY 2011/12 Greek olive oil production is forecast at 310,000 MT, up from the previous year. Overall EU olive oil output will depend on climate conditions throughout the extended harvest season, which runs from October to January. However, according to official estimates, a slight decline in total olive oil production in the EU-27 is anticipated, driven by Italy?s reduced crop. While consumption is expected to remain fairly stable within the EU, exports are expected to continue their upward trend. MY 2010/11 High olive oil ending stocks in MY 2010/11, mostly in Spain, caused a fall in prices below the Private Storage Aid (PSA) trigger level of 1.77 Euro/kg. In response to falling prices, Spain requested activation of the PSA program. The EU Management Committee authorized 1.3 Euros per ton per day in storage aid for about 44,000 MT of virgin olive oil over a 180 day period. This amounts to a payment of 234 Euro/MT. While not impacting consumption directly, PSA may help to improve prices for producers through greater marketing flexibility. However, the exclusion of lower quality oils from the PSA has been criticized by some of the actors in the olive oil sector. Related EU-27 and Country Reports: Oilseeds Reports Report Title Date Released | Oilseeds Update Slovakia | Oilseeds and Products, Agriculture in the News | Prague | Slovakia | 10/31/2011 Slovakia oilseeds production increased in 2011 for all major crops with rapeseed up 10 percent, 10-26-2011 sunflower seed up 46 percent and soybeans up 75 percent. Oilseeds Update Slovakia _Prague_Slovakia_10-26-2011 | Oilseeds Update Czech Republic ? Second Best Harvest of Rapeseed | Oilseeds and Products, Agriculture in the News | Prague | Czech Republic | 10/31/2011 The 2011 official crop estimates show production of rapeseed at 1.1 million MT, the second largest crop on record; of sunflower seed, at 73 thousand MT representing a 26 percent increase; and, of soybean 10-26-2011 at 15 thousand MT representing a slight decline due to smaller planted area and drop in per hectare yield. Oilseeds Update Czech Republic ? Second Best Harvest of Rapeseed_Prague_Czech Republic_10-26- 2011 | Poland?s Grain and Oilseeds Harvest Update 2011-12 | Grain and Feed, Oilseeds and Products | Warsaw | Poland | 10/18/2011 National Statistic Office estimates grain production at 26.3 million tons and rapeseed production at 1.9 million tons. In comparison to crop year 2010, the 2011 crops are lower by 3.5 percent and 10.1 10-12-2011 percent, respectively. Grain quality is reported as poorer due to fungi presence from excessive rainfall prior/during harvest. Poland?s Grain and Oilseeds Harvest Update 2011-12_Warsaw_Poland_10-12-2011 | Rapeseed Production Somewhat Better than Expected | Oilseeds and Products, Bio-Fuels, Grain and Feed | Vienna | EU-27 | 8/11/2011 This report provides EU-27 production, supply, and demand forecasts for oilseeds, protein meals and 8-5-2011 related products. Rapeseed Production Somewhat Better than Expected_Vienna_EU-27_8-5-2011 | Oilseed, Soybean (Local), Meal, Soybean | Rebound of EU-27 Oilseeds Production | Oilseeds and Products | Berlin | EU-27 | 4/12/2011 The rebound to average yields and an almost flat area leads to expectations of an increased EU-27 oilseeds production of about 1.5 percent in MY 211/12 reaching some 29.4 MMT. Along with the growing production cru 04/04/2011 sh of oilseeds is anticipated to rise accordingly. Ample supplies of soybean meal in North and South America are forecast to increase soybean meal imports which will be absorbed by the feed demand of the growing poultry sector. After a decline of total oilseeds oil use for biodiesel ... Oilseeds and Products Annual_Berlin_EU-27_4-4-2011 | FAQs on Biofuel Sustainability Certification in Germany | Bio-Fuels, Oilseeds and Products, Grain and Feed | Berlin | Germany | 4/8/2011 This report provides answers to some FAQs regarding the sustainability certification in Germany, 04-01-2011 including costs, participation by German farmers, and impact on U.S. soybean and biofuel exports. FAQs on Biofuel Sustainability Certification in Germany_Berlin_Germany_04-01-2011 | Oilseeds - Increased Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Production | Oilseeds and Products, Bio-Fuels, Grain and Feed | Vienna | EU-27 | 12/3/2010 In MY 20010/11, EU-27 production for the three major oilseed crops was higher than our August estimates. Soybean production showed a 12.4 percent increase whereas rapeseed and sunflower production were only revised marginally upward. Price competitiveness and a strong demand from the 11/30/2010 broiler and swine industries are expected to increase soybean imports and crushing beyond previous estimates. In line with higher soybean meal production, a result of the higher crush volume, the use of soybean m... Oilseeds - Increased Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Production_Vienna_EU-27_11-30-2010 Green Party Plan To End Soybean Imports | Oilseeds and Products | Berlin | Germany | 11/5/2010 The German Green Party has developed a proposal to replace imported soybeans with domestically produced protein crops. The Greens are advancing the proposal using a clear EU parliamentary strategy and ties to sweep 11/02/2010 ing environmental themes but technical challenges remain. If successfully implemented, the ?Protein Strategy for Agriculture? could jeopardize roughly $500 million in U.S. soybean sales to Germany. Green Party Plan To End Soybean Imports_Berlin_Germany_11-2-2010 Related Topics Report Title Date Released | Crop update - EU grain harvest under way following long awaited rain | Grain and Feed | 08/05/2011 London | United Kingdom EU-27 | 8/10/2011 Since the last update in early June, rain has been seen across Europe. While a little late for the likes of Southern France and the barley crop in Germany, it has been particularly welcome and good for grain fill in Northern France, the UK and for the wheat crop in Germany; yield expectations have improved but remain difficult to predict. In these countries, the attention is now turning from yield to quality, the latter reported to be variable. In contrast, in the South East, particularly Bul... Crop update - EU grain harvest under way following long awaited rain_London_United Kingdom EU- 27_8-5-2011 | Crop update - France and Germany feel the heat | Grain and Feed | London | United Kingdom EU-27 | 6/8/2011 W ith significantly less rainfall than normal recorded in the past three months in the key growing areas in France, Germany and the UK, farmers are reported to be increasingly concerned about both grain y 06/03/2011 ield and quality, particularly in north western France. As such, the EU27 grain crop forecast is reduced to 277 MMT. As such, the focus firmly remains on the EU stock number despite a reduction in forecast feed and industrial grain usage and in exports. Crop update - France and Germany feel the heat_London_United Kingdom EU-27_6-3-2011 | EU-27 Annual Biofuels Report | Bio-Fuels | The Hague | EU-27 | 6/29/2011 Despite EU consumption of biofuels steadily increased, and the use of fossil fuels stagnated, the EU did not achieve its Directive 2003/30 indicative target for blending in 2010. During 2006 - 2008, the EU Member States? mandates for blending and the relative high crude oil prices spurred the domestic use 06/22/2011 and production of biofuels. Since 2007, however, competitive imports of biofuels have been deteriorating domestic producer margins. Despite the effort of the EC to regulate these imports, th... Biofuels Annual_The Hague_EU-27_6-22-2011 | Wheat, Barley, Corn, Rye, Sorghum, Oats, Mixed Grain, Select | 2011 | Grain and Feed | London | EU-27 | 4/27/2011 Wet weather in some parts of the EU27 during fall 2010 is reported to have delayed and limited plantings in those countries. That said, favorable conditions elsewhere, generally good over-wintering conditions across the EU27, improved soil moisture and favorable spring planting 04/21/2011 conditions, indicate the MY2011/12 EU27 planted grain area is forecast slightly up and production is currently forecast to rise. While rain is currently needed in the west, particularly in France and the UK but also in ... Grain and Feed Annual_London_EU-27_4-21-2011 | Animal Numbers, Cattle, Meat, Beef and Veal, Animal Numbers, Swine, Meat, Swine, Select | EU-27 Semi-Annual 2011 | Livestock and Products | The Hague | EU-27 | 3/7/2011 Low feed prices in the first half of 2010 sparked piglet production and encouraged farmers to slaughter cattle and hogs at higher weights. As a result, the EU?s domestic supply of beef and pork rose significantly during the second half of 2010. Elevated supply, in combination with strong foreign 02/28/2011 demand, benefitted exports. In 2010, EU beef exports more than doubled while pork exports rose almost a quarter. In 2011, EU beef and pork supplies are expected to fall as a result of higher feed pri... Livestock and Products Semi-annual_The Hague_EU-27_2-28-2011 | Poultry, Meat, Broiler | After a Buoyant 2010 Year, EU-27 Poultry Sector Growth Slowing in 2011 | Poultry and Products | Paris | EU-27 | 3/4/2011 After a significant surge in 2010 (almost 4 percent) fueled by extremely strong export demand in Russia and Hong Kong, EU-27 broiler production is expected to grow moderately in 2011 by 1 percent a 03/01/2011 s new import regulations in Russia are likely to hit exports. EU-27 chicken meat imports decreased in 2010 due to lower imports from Brazil and no rebound is expected for 2011. Poultry meat, which is the cheapest source of protein, was less affected by the European economic recession than other meats; ... Poultry and Products Semi-annual_Paris_EU-27_3-1-2011 | Transposition of the RED into National Legislation | Bio-Fuels | Brussels USEU | EU-27 | 02/15/2011 2/18/2011 According to EU legislation, the Renewable Energy Directive must be transposed into their national legislation by December 5, 2010. Almost all of the EU Member States will not meet the deadline. It remains unclear how the Commission, and the Member States, will deal with the delays. Transposition of the RED into National Legislation_Brussels USEU_EU-27_2011-02-15 | Brief Analysis of the EU National Plans | Bio-Fuels | The Hague | EU-27 | 12/21/2010 This report provides a brief analysis of EU Member State (MS) national renewable energy action plans, which are part of a broad EU effort to increase the use of biofuels in transportation and electricity production. The report also considers the implications for domestic crop production and trade. For 12/16/2010 example, to meet the EU?s stated goals, it is estimated that an additional 10 MMT of grains and 12 MMT of oils and fats may be required annually. Brief Analysis of the EU National Plans_The Hague_EU-27_12-16-2010 | Introduction of E10 may curb biodiesel consumption in Germany | Bio-Fuels, Trade Policy Monitoring | Berlin | Germany | 11/12/2010 The German Government has doubled to 10 percent the allowable amount of ethanol in gasoline. Starting January 1, 2011, E10,a gasoline mix of 90 percent gasoline and 10 percent bioethanol by 11/09/2010 volume, will be freely sold in Germany. This is expected to increase bioethanol demand and imports. However, because the overall biofuel mandate remains unchanged it is also expected that increase in bioethanol market share may reduce consumption of biodiesel in Germany. Introduction of E10 may curb biodiesel consumption in Germany_Berlin_Germany_11-09-2010 | Status of Biomass Sustainability Certification in Germany | Bio-Fuels, Trade Policy Monitoring | Berlin | Germany | 3/15/2010 As of July 1, 2010, biofuels will need a ?proof of sustainability? certificate from an approved sustainability system in order to be eligible for tax incentives or mandates in Germany. In order to be ab 03/11/2010 le to certify production, U.S. industry can work with an existing German certification system or develop its own system and have it approved in Germany. Information on requirements for approval of certification systems can be obtained from the German Federal Agency for Agriculture and Nutrition ... Status of Biomass Sustainability Certification in Germany _Berlin_Germany_3-11-2010 | Commission Communications on Sustainability and Voluntary Schemes | Bio-Fuels | Brussels USEU | EU-27 | 7/15/2010 In June 2010, the Commission published two Communications to encourage industry, governments and NGO?s to set up certification schemes. One Communication concerns the practical implementation of the Sustainability Scheme, and the other concerning Voluntary Schemes and default values. In the C 06/23/2010 ommunications the Commission explicitly rules out that forests can be converted into palm oil plantations. Reactions from stakeholders in Brussels on the Communications have been generally positive. Commission Communications on Sustainability and Voluntary Schemes_Brussels USEU_EU-27_6-23- 2010
Posted: 30 November 2011

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