Grain and Feed Update

An Expert's View about Crops and Support Services in India

Posted on: 15 Aug 2012

Almost halfway through the 2012 monsoon season (June-September), rains have been significantly deficient in the central, north and northwest parts of India, indicating a below-normal monsoon.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 8/3/2012 GAIN Report Number: IN2105 India Grain and Feed Update August 2012 Approved By: Allan Mustard Prepared By: Santosh Singh Report Highlights: Almost halfway through the 2012 monsoon season (June-September), rains have been significantly deficient in the central, north and northwest parts of India, indicating a below-normal monsoon. Consequently, Post‟s MY 2012/13 production forecasts for rice, corn, sorghum, and millet have been revised lower, and may decline further unless the monsoon gains momentum in the next few weeks. An Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) announced a relief package of about Rs 19 billion ($342 million) to states facing a drought-like situation, and a Diesel fuel subsidy of 50 per cent to farmers for saving standing crops. Concerns about an impending drought have led to a significant increase in food prices with food grains prices rising by 6 to 14 percent during July. The Ministry of Agriculture‟s recently released Fourth Advance Estimates for Indian Crop Year (ICY) 2011/12 (July/June) further raised the food grain production estimate to a record 257.4 million tons on higher-than-earlier expected yields. Post: New Delhi Author Defined: Poor Monsoon Portends Moisture Deficit…. Almost halfway through the 2012 monsoon season (June-September), rains have been significantly deficient in the central, north and northwest parts of India, indicating a below-normal monsoon. Cumulative rainfall for the week ending August 1, 2012, was significantly below normal (see Appendix 1) in many parts of the country, with only 16 of the 36 weather subdivisions receiving normal or above normal-rainfall. The all-India area-weighted rainfall total through August 1 was reported as 19 percent below normal. Deficient monsoon rains have affected water storage in 81 major reservoirs, which are currently running low at 66 percent of last year‟s level and 81 percent of normal (longer-term average level). While the monsoon may recover in the second half (August and September), the 2012 monsoon at best can recover to 85 percent of normal based on the last 10 years‟ monthly precipitation data. Thus, the 2012 monsoon is most likely to be well below the 90 percent threshold that defines a „deficient‟ monsoon. A comparison of this year‟s rainfall pattern with historical data shows that the situation is similar to the last two “deficient” monsoon years of 2002 and 2009 (see Appendix 2). The predominantly rainfed agriculture states of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan have been particularly rain deficient, which will affect corn, sorghum, millet, and pulse crops. … and Affects 2012/13 Production Prospects. Poor rainfall distribution in central, north and northwest India is likely to affect adversely the MY 2012/13 kharif (fall/early winter harvested) food grain crops like rice, corn, sorghum, millet and major pulses (pigeon pea, mung beans, black matpe). Planting of the upcoming kharif crops is lagging significantly behind last year, particularly rainfed (dryland) coarse grains and pulses. Table 1. India: Progressive Planting of Major Kharif Food Grains (Area in Million Hectares) Crop Planting as of July 27, Planting as of July 29, Planting as of July 29, 2012 2011 2010 Rice 19.11 20.99 19.98 Corn 5.72 5.93 6.39 Sorghum 1.72 2.23 2.41 Millets 4.31 7.03 7.90 Pulses 6.30 7.39 8.18 Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India (GOI). Given the rainfall deficit through July but assuming normal rains will fall in August/September, Post revises the MY 2012/13 production forecast for rice, corn, sorghum, and millet downward. The window of opportunity for planting/re-planting of most kharif grain crops will be over by the second week of August in most states. Unless monsoon activity gains momentum in the next week and a half, there will likely be a further decline in planted area and production of rice, corn and other coarse grains. Rice: Post‟s MY 2012/13 rice production estimate is revised lower to 94 million tons from 42 million hectares on deficient rains in the rice-growing states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Bihar. The effect of poor rainfall through the first half of the monsoon season is relatively more severe in eastern Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu, where rice transplanting is almost entirely dependent on monsoon rains. Although rice planting in the surplus states of Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh and Haryana is mostly irrigated, deficient monsoon rains affect rice prospects due to depletion of rechargable ground water and surface reservoirs required for irrigation. Additionally, the cost of production for farmers is likely to increase due to greater operation of Diesel- powered pumps in irrigated areas. Planting progress is currently lagging behind last year‟s level by about 2 million hectares and the window of opportunity for planting of rice in most states will be over by the second week of August. On a positive note, area planted under long-grain basmati rice in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh is likely to expand on relatively strong export demand and a longer planting window (through end of August). However, if rains remain deficient in August, farmers will most likely shift to less irrigation-dependent crops, like short-season pulses and forage crops. Deficient and erratic monsoon rains and delayed planting in most states will likely adversely affect yields for these crops, especially compared to last‟s year record 3.5 tons/hectare. Although the government should make efforts to reduce kharif rice losses and encourage rabi (winter planted/spring harvested) rice production by providing various incentives and input subsidies to farmers and drought-mitigating contingency plans in affected states, MY 2012/13 production is forecast to decline at least to 94 million tons from 42 million hectares compared to last year‟s record 104.3 million tons from 44.4 million hectares. In a worst-case scenario, if the monsoon rains remain deficient in August, production will almost certainly not achieve even that reduced level. However, a clearer picture will emerge only by the end of August after assessing precipitation and soil moisture conditions in major production areas. Corn: Post‟s MY 2012/13 corn production estimate is revised lower to 20.0 million tons due to deficient rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan and parts of Karnataka. Rainfall has been deficient but adequate for corn in the major surplus states of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and parts of Karnataka. However, if deficient rains persist through the first fortnight of August, production prospects will be adversely affected on lower area planted and yields. Should monsoon rains be deficient in August/September, production prospects would suffer for rabi corn, which accounts for about one-fourth of the total crop. Other Coarse Grains: MY 2012/13 sorghum production forecast is lowered to 6.4 million tons, and 10.0 million tons for millet due to current drought-like conditions in the major producing states of Rajasthan, Karnataka, Gujarat and Maharashtra. While the current planting figures are significantly behind last year‟s, the decline in production of sorghum and millet may be less severe as farmers who otherwise would plant rice shift to short-season coarse grains, supported by government contingency plans if rains remain weak in August. It is possible that the area under sorghum and millet may remain unsown in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat and western Rajasthan, as the contingency plans for these states will focus on forage production, short-season pulses and fallow to conserve moisture for early planting of rabi crops. Government Takes Steps to Mitigate Looming Crisis The Ministry of Agriculture has been closely observing the monsoon‟s progress and periodically issuing crop advisories as well as contingency plans in case of imminent drought (http://agricoop.nic.in/). On July 31, 2012, an Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) on drought, headed by Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, announced a relief package of about Rs 19 billion ($342 million) to states facing a drought-like situation: Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Haryana. The EGoM also announced a Diesel fuel subsidy of 50 per cent to farmers for saving standing crops - 25 per cent of the subsidy on Diesel will be borne by the central government and 25 percent by state governments. While the modalities for the Diesel subsidy program are yet to be settled, there have been implementation problems in the past, whereby the beneficiaries have not received the subsidy in time. The EGoM is likely to meet regularly, and may announce additional measures after assessing the monsoon situation in the second and third weeks of August. Some of the state governments have also started implementing drought management contingency plans. Several state governments are already seeking financial assistance from the central government for additional input subsidy (free electricity, Diesel subsidy, free seed, etc), loan rescheduling and cash relief to farmers and employment for displaced labors under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, and other programs for mitigating impact of drought conditions on the rural economy. Food Prices Surge… Continued deficient monsoon rains and reports of impending drought have led to a significant increase in food prices with prices of most food grains rising by 6 to 14 percent during July (see below chart and Table 9). The increase in the prices of corn and various pulses has been very strong, raising serious food inflation concerns among policy makers. Despite a likely decline in food grain production this year, overall food grain supplies should remain stable following record procurement of wheat (38.0 million tons) and rice (37.0 million tons) by the government from the record MY 2011/12 rice and 2012/13 wheat crops, which resulted in an “abnormally” high build-up of government-held stocks. Government-held food grain stocks on July 1, 2012, were estimated at 30.7 million tons of rice and 49.8 million tons of wheat, more than two and a half times higher than the desired stock levels (11.8 million tons rice and 20.1 million tons wheat). Government May Intervene to Control Prices Media reports suggest that the government is closely monitoring the food price situation, and may announce measures to keep food prices under control. The government is likely to increase the release of wheat and rice through the public distribution system (PDS) and open market sales to keep prices under control. However, the government may explore additional market control measures: imposing limits on stockpiles to prevent hoarding, cracking down on holders of stocks, and banning futures trading, if prices of grains and pulses continue to rise. Trade Not Affected If Monsoon Recovers Post estimates for exports of wheat, rice, and corn remain unchanged on expected sufficient domestic supplies. If the monsoon recovers in August and rains are normal in August/September, the government is unlikely to impose any export control measures on rice, wheat and corn. However, if rains remain deficient through August/September, the government may review exports of non-basmati rice, wheat from government stocks and corn, with an eye to imposing an export ban. To contain the rising prices of pulses (beans, peas, and lentils), the government may decide to import and distribute additional quantities of pulses at subsidized prices through the PDS. The GOI has authorized government agencies/trading companies such as National Agriculture Marketing Federation (NAFED), State Trading Corporation (STC), Project and Equipment Corporation (PEC) Ltd., and Mineral and Metal Trading Corporation (MMTC) to import pulses for sale in the domestic market, and these agencies qualify for a subsidy of up to 15 percent of the cost of importation. Government Agencies Float Tender for Wheat Exports On July 13, 2012, the government parastatals nominated for export of government-held wheat (see GAIN report IN2095) floated tenders for exports of 240,000 metric tons of wheat. The wheat being offered is mostly from MY 2012/13, with some quantities from MY 2011/12 also. Later on July 27, 2012, the PEC floated a tender for additional an 60,000 metric tons to be exported from the east coast. Table2: India: Government Wheat Tenders Agency Quantity (Metric Crop Year Port of Loading Tons) State Trading Corporation (STC) 100,000 2012/13 Mundra, Gujarat Project Export Corporation (PEC) 90,000 2011/12 & Kandla, Gujarat 2012/13 Minerals and Metal Trading 50,000 2012/13 Pipavav, Gujarat Corporation (MMTC) Project Export Corporation (PEC) 60,000\1 2012/13 Krishnapatnam, Andhra Pradesh \1 : PEC tender floated on July 27, 2012, with the tender closing on August 16, 2012. While the tenders are likely to be let on August 3, 2012, sources report that there is considerable interest from the private trade. Official Production Estimates for Crop Year 2011/12 Raised On July 16, 29012, the Ministry of Agriculture released the Fourth Advance Estimates for Indian Crop Year (ICY) 2011/12 (July/June), wherein the food grain production estimate has been raised further to a record 257.4 million tons, nearly five million tons higher than the third advance estimate, and a 5.2 percent increase over the final 2010/11 production (244.8 million tons) estimate. ICY 2011/12 food grain production includes rice, coarse grains and pulse crops harvested last fall and this spring (MY 2011/12), and wheat and barley crops harvested in March\April, 2012 (MY 2012/13). The government has raised the ICY 2011/12 production estimates of most grains on higher-than- anticipated-earlier yields. A normal 2011 monsoon coupled with favorable weather condition during the growing period, particularly for the rabi (winter planted/spring harvested) crops, was reportedly responsible for the increased yields. MY 2012/13 wheat production has been revised higher to a record 93.9 million tons, more than an 8.1 percent increase over last year‟s production. MY 2011/12 rice production has also been further raised to a record 104.3 million tons, about an 8.7 percent increase over last year‟s crop. The PS&D tables for various grains have been revised to reflect the official production estimates with appropriate adjustments in consumption, trade and/or stocks to reflect these changes. STATISTICAL TABLES Table 3. India: Commodity, Rice, Milled, PSD (Area in Thousand Hectares, Others in Thousand Metric Tons) Rice 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 , Milled Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: India Oct 2010 Oct 2011 May 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested 42,860 42,860 44,100 44,410 44,000 42,000 Beginning Stocks 20,500 20,500 23,500 23,500 25,000 26,000 Milled Production 95,980 95,980 103,400 104,320 100,000 94,000 Rough Production 143,984 143,984 155,116 156,496 150,015 141,014 Milling Rate (.9999) 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,666 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 116,480 116,480 126,900 127,820 125,000 120,000 MY Exports 2,774 2,774 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 TY Exports 4,637 4,637 8,000 8,000 6,500 6,500 Consumption and Residual 90,206 90,206 93,900 93,820 96,000 95,000 Ending Stocks 23,500 23,500 25,000 26,000 22,000 18,000 Total Distribution 116,480 116,480 126,900 127,820 125,000 120,000 Yield (Rough) 3. 3.3594 4. 3.5239 3. 3.3575 TS=TD 0 0 0 Table 4. India: Commodity, Wheat PSD (Area in Thousand Hectares, Others in Thousand Metric Tons) 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Wheat Market Year Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: India Begin: Apr 2010 Apr 2011 Apr 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested 28,460 28,460 29,400 29,400 29,800 29,690 Beginning Stocks 16,120 16,120 15,360 15,360 19,950 19,950 Production 80,800 80,800 86,870 86,870 91,000 93,900 MY Imports 272 272 25 25 0 0 TY Imports 199 199 25 25 0 0 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 97,192 97,192 102,255 102,255 110,950 113,850 MY Exports 72 72 750 750 4,500 5,000 TY Exports 74 74 1,150 1,150 5,000 5,000 Feed and Residual 2,900 2,900 3,100 3,100 3,600 3,750 FSI Consumption 78,860 78,860 78,455 78,455 81,850 83,100 Total Consumption 81,760 81,760 81,555 81,555 85,450 86,850 Ending Stocks 15,360 15,360 19,950 19,950 21,000 22,000 Total Distribution 97,192 97,192 102,255 102,255 110,950 113,850 Yield 3. 2.8391 3. 2.9548 3. 3.1627 TS=TD 0 0 0 Table 5. India: Commodity, Corn PSD (Area in Thousand Hectares, Others in Thousand Metric Tons) 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Corn Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: India Nov 2010 Nov 2011 May 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,670 8,900 8,500 Beginning Stocks 453 453 576 576 486 756 Production 21,730 21,730 21,300 21,570 22,000 20,000 MY Imports 19 19 10 10 10 10 TY Imports 24 24 10 10 10 10 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 22,202 22,202 21,886 22,156 22,496 20,766 MY Exports 3,526 3,526 3,800 3,800 2,500 2,500 TY Exports 3,376 3,376 3,800 3,800 2,500 2,500 Feed and Residual 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 10,200 9,500 FSI Consumption 9,100 9,100 8,600 8,600 9,000 8,500 Total Consumption 18,100 18,100 17,600 17,600 19,200 18,000 Ending Stocks 576 576 486 756 796 266 Total Distribution 22,202 22,202 21,886 22,156 22,496 20,766 Yield 3. 2.5267 2. 2.4879 2. 2.3529 TS=TD 0 0 0 Table 6. India: Commodity, Sorghum PSD (Area in Thousand Hectares, Others in Thousand Metric Tons) 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Sorghum Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: India Nov 2010 Nov 2011 May 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested 7,060 7,060 6,600 6,330 7,000 6,500 Beginning Stocks 154 154 327 327 102 132 Production 7,000 7,000 6,100 6,030 6,700 6,400 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 7,154 7,154 6,427 6,357 6,802 6,532 MY Exports 27 27 25 25 50 25 TY Exports 31 31 25 25 50 25 Feed and Residual 1,400 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,400 1,300 FSI Consumption 5,400 5,400 5,000 5,000 5,200 5,100 Total Consumption 6,800 6,800 6,300 6,200 6,600 6,400 Ending Stocks 327 327 102 132 152 107 Total Distribution 7,154 7,154 6,427 6,357 6,802 6,532 Yield 1. 0.9915 1. 0.9526 1. 0.9846 TS=TD 0 0 0 Table 7. India: Commodity, Millet PSD (Area in Thousand Hectares, Others in Thousand Metric Tons) 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Millet India Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Nov 2010 Nov 2011 May 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested 11,150 11,150 10,800 10,800 10,500 8,500 Beginning Stocks 300 300 990 990 860 790 Production 13,290 13,290 12,870 12,800 12,500 10,000 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 13,590 13,590 13,860 13,790 13,360 10,790 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed and Residual 1,200 1,200 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,200 FSI Consumption 11,400 11,400 11,500 11,500 11,300 9,300 Total Consumption 12,600 12,600 13,000 13,000 12,800 10,500 Ending Stocks 990 990 860 790 560 290 Total Distribution 13,590 13,590 13,860 13,790 13,360 10,790 Yield 1. 1.1919 1. 1.1852 1. 1.1765 TS=TD 0 0 0 Table 8. India: Commodity, Barley PSD (Area in Thousand Hectares, Others in Thousand Metric Tons) 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Barley Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: India Apr 2010 Apr 2011 May 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested 620 620 780 780 770 770 Beginning Stocks 202 202 178 192 263 277 Production 1,350 1,350 1,660 1,660 1,650 1,610 MY Imports 2 2 0 0 0 0 TY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,554 1,554 1,838 1,852 1,913 1,887 MY Exports 26 12 25 25 25 25 TY Exports 30 26 25 25 25 25 Feed and Residual 150 150 250 250 300 280 FSI Consumption 1,200 1,200 1,300 1,300 1,400 1,400 Total Consumption 1,350 1,350 1,550 1,550 1,700 1,680 Ending Stocks 178 192 263 277 188 182 Total Distribution 1,554 1,554 1,838 1,852 1,913 1,887 Yield 2. 2.1774 2. 2.1282 2. 2.0909 TS=TD 0 0 0 Table 9. India: National Average Weekly Wholesale Prices for Selected Staple Crops (in rupees per ton) Week of Wheat Rice Corn Sorghum Pearl Millet Pigeon Pea Lentils July 24-31, 2012 15,012 22,981 12,309 15,958 11,135 44,835 35,431 July 16-23, 2012 14,637 24,583 11,702 15,710 10,530 45,663 34,402 July 9-15, 2012 14,406 23,270 10,961 19,377 10,925 42,390 32,733 July 1-8, 2012 13,863 23,277 10,679 17,017 9,964 42,957 33,577 June 24-30, 2012 13,896 21,763 10,482 16,689 10,333 39,440 32,046 June 16-23, 2012 13,533 23,393 10,521 15,014 9,900 42,696 32,339 June 9-15, 2012 13,746 23,483 10,434 15,505 10,154 41,323 33,110 June 1-8, 2012 13,852 23,630 10,424 14,949 10,291 40,910 33,688 May 24-31, 2012 13,808 23,077 10,392 15,808 9,680 40,386 34,163 July 24-31, 2011 13,053 21,755 10,695 15,968 9,990 35,396 28,750 Source: Agmarknet, Ministry of Agriculture http://agmarknet.nic.in/ Appendix 1. India: Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall to the Week Ending August 1, 2012 Appendix 2: Indian Monsoon and Rice Planting through July in 2012 vs. 2009 and 2002 Weather 2012 2009 2002 Subdivision Rainfall Change in Rainfall Change in Rainfall Change in deviation Planted area deviation Planted deviation Planted 6/1/12 to from previous 6/1/09 to area from 6/1/02 to area from 7/25/12 (% y 1ear(Mhec)\ 7/22/09 (% previous 7/24/02 (% previous from from year from year normal) norm 2al) (Mhe /c) norm /2al) (Mhec) ) West Bengal -27 -0.69 -41 -0.39 +16 -0.2 Coastal +5 -0.16 -31 -0.07 -33 -1.0 Andhra Pradesh (AP) Telangana -4 -41 -37 (AP) Rayalseema -3 -33 -16 (AP) Uttar Pradesh -55 -0.16 -58 -2.47 -73 -1.7 West Uttar Pradesh -14 -58 -51 East Punjab -66 +0.08 -65 -0.09 -69 0 Orissa -17 -0.24 +46 -0.29 -30 -0.2 Bihar -20 +0.09 -64 -1.13 +27 0 Tamil Nadu -22 -0.06 -14 -0.04 -38 -0.3 Chhattisgarh -8 -0.29 -8 -0.16 -38 -0.4 Assam +8 -0.17 -45 -0.08 -12 0 All India -22 -1.83 -19 -5.5 -24 -4.3 Note: \1: As of July 27, 2012 \2: As of July 23, 2009 and July 23, 2002, respectively. Source: Indian Meteorological Department and Ministry of Agriculture, GOI.
Posted: 15 August 2012

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