Livestock and Products Semi-Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in India

Posted on: 23 Mar 2012

India is likely to become the world’s largest beef (buffalo meat) exporter by 2013, if not sooner.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 3/2/2012 GAIN Report Number: IN2028 India Post: New Delhi Livestock and Products Semi-Annual 2012 Report Categories: Livestock and Products Approved By: Thom Wright Prepared By: Ritambhara Singh Report Highlights: Indian beef (buffalo meat) exports for 2012 are now estimated at 1.525 million tons, 25 percent higher than 2011 exports. 2011 exports are estimated 33 percent up over 2010. Given explosive export growth, India is likely to become the world?s largest beef (buffalo meat) exporter by 2013, if not sooner. Indian slaughter capacity continues to increase, with multiple new facilities expected by the end of 2012. Increases in beef production estimates are attributed to several factors, including increased slaughter, Indian buffalo meat?s cost competitiveness in the export market, and increasing animal inventories as Indian milk production expands. General Information: Production: 2012 Indian beef (buffalo meat) production is projected at 3.50 million tons carcass weight equivalent (cwe), a 6.70 percent increase over the official USDA estimate. 2011 beef production is revised upwards 3.60 percent to 3.17 million tons. Increases in beef production estimates are attributed to several factors, including increased slaughter, Indian buffalo meat?s cost competitiveness in the export market, and increasing animal inventories as Indian milk production expands. Indian buffalo slaughter capacity continues to expand in order to supply the growing buffalo meat export market. According to the Government of India (GOI), there were 3 new export-oriented slaughter units created in 2011, bringing the total number to 33 (see APEDA approved abattoirs cum meat processing plants). Industry sources indicate that 12 additional export-oriented slaughter and processing facilities will be built by the end of 2012. It is important to note that while exporters remain optimistic, they do not expect either new or existing slaughter facilities to produce at full capacity, primarily due to operational inefficiencies and demand limitations. Additionally, a 2011 change to Indian production regulations has required that all export-oriented processing units be integrated with slaughter facilities. This regulation will require infrastructural renovations to a small number of export- oriented slaughter houses. Most production units are expected to make the physical upgrades within the allotted grace period. (See notification No. 82 (RE-2010)/2009-2014 dated October 31, 2011). Supply chains for domestic and exported buffalo meat are separate. As a result, buffalo meat production growth is being led by the export market, while domestic demand is keeping pace with the population growth rate. Further expansion into the domestic market appears unlikely as that Indian meat retailing lacks cold chain facilities; Indian consumers prefer non-bovine proteins such as chicken, goat, dairy products, and pulses; and the cost of production for export oriented meats exceeds the cost of production for domestically consumed buffalo meat. Post continues to investigate Indian buffalo populations. Current estimates indicate that there are approximately 100 million buffalo in India, and that this population is probably expanding as milk production increases. It is unclear what the result of expanded meat production will be on India?s cattle population. Industry sources state that buffalo populations are robust and they do not expect supply issues over the next 10 years. However, increasing the number of buffalo slaughter facilities in small geographic areas may eventually lead to live animal price increases. Consumption: Consumption is expected to drop marginally from the official USDA estimate due to profitable exports. Higher export per unit values favors buffalo export over domestic consumption. As a result, 2012 consumption estimates are revised down from 2.01 million tons to 1.98 million tons. 2011 consumption is lowered to 1.95 from 1.96 million tons. Trade: Post revises the 2012 export estimate to 1.525 million tons cwe and CY 2011 buffalo meat exports to 1.22 million tons cwe. Year on year export growth for 2011 is 33 percent, while 2012 growth is 25 percent. Given India?s explosive export growth, India is likely to become the world?s largest beef (buffalo meat) exporter by 2013, if not sooner. Export growth is largely due to consistent demand from price sensitive importers, primarily in Vietnam and Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. As a result, the number of export production units is increasing to meet growing export demand for low-cost Indian buffalo meat. While there are rumors of new market openings in Eastern Europe and Indonesia, no known trade has yet occurred in these regions, and India?s Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) status makes this seem unlikely. Indian exporters are operating voluntary vaccination programs to combat FMD, and the GOI has launched a Rs 4,000 crore (U.S. $800 million) program to tackle the disease. While these programs are positive steps, the reality of FMD remains a significant hurdle for expanding market access. Table 1: Commodity, Animal Numbers, Cattle, PSD Animal Numbers, Cattle 2010 2011 2012 India Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan 1000 heads PERCENT 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Total Cattle Beg. Stks 316,400 316,400 320,800 320,800 324,300 324,490 Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks 128,800 128,800 129,000 129,000 129,350 129,350 Beef Cows Beg. Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production (Calf Crop) 61,700 61,700 62,400 62,500 63,200 63,400 Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 378,100 378,100 383,200 383,300 387,500 387,890 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cow Slaughter 1,230 1,230 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 Calf Slaughter 4,500 4,500 4,650 4,660 4,700 4,750 Other Slaughter 22,980 22,980 25,100 26,090 27,350 29,400 Total Slaughter 28,710 28,710 31,000 32,000 33,300 35,400 Loss 28,590 28,590 27,900 26,810 27,000 25,250 Ending Inventories 320,800 320,800 324,300 324,490 327,200 327,240 Total Distribution 378,100 378,100 383,200 383,300 387,500 387,890 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory Balance 4,400 4,400 3,500 3,690 2,900 2,750 Inventory Change 2 2 1 1 1 1 Cow Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production Change 1 1 1 1 1 1 Production to Cows 48 48 48 48 49 49 Slaughter to Inventory 9 9 10 10 10 11 Slaughter to Total Supply 8 8 8 8 9 9 TS=TD 0 0 0 Table 2: Commodity, Meat, Beef and Veal, PSD Meat, Beef and Veal 2010 2011 2012 India Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan 1000 CWE 2010 2011 2012 USDA O New USDA Post New USDA Post New Post fficial Official Official Slaughter 28,710 28,710 31,000 32,000 33,300 35,400 (Reference) Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production 2,842 2,842 3,060 3,170 3,285 3,505 Intra-EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 2,842 2,842 3,060 3,170 3,285 3,505 Supply Intra EU 0 0 0 0 0 Exports Other 917 917 1,100 1,220 1,275 1,525 Exports Total 917 917 1,100 1,220 1,275 1,525 Exports Human Dom. 1,925 1,925 1,960 1,950 2,010 1,980 Consumption Other Use, 0 0 0 0 0 0 Losses Total Dom. 1,925 1,925 1,960 1,950 2,010 1,980 Consumption Ending 0 0 0 0 0 0 Stocks Total 2,842 2,842 3,060 3,170 3,285 3,505 Distribution CY Imp. from 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.S. CY. Exp. to 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.S. Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 Balance Weights 99 99 99 99 99 99 Production Change 13 13 8 12 7 11 Import 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change Export 51 51 20 33 16 25 Change Consumption 1 1 2 1 3 2 Change Imports Percent 0 0 0 0 0 0 Consumption Exports Percent 32 32 36 38 39 44 Production Population 1,173,108,0 1,173,108,0 1,189,172,9 1,189,172,9 1,205,073,6 1,205,073,6 18 18 06 06 12 12 Per Capita 2 2 2 Consumption TS=TD 0 0 0
Posted: 23 March 2012

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