Coffee Semi-annual 2012

An Expert's View about Coffee and Tea in India

Posted on: 28 Nov 2012

India’s 2012/13 crop is forecast marginally higher at a record 5.3 million 60 kg bags.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 11/9/2012 GAIN Report Number: IN2149 India Coffee Semi-annual 2012 Approved By: David Williams Prepared By: Dhruv Sood Report Highlights: India’s 2012/13 crop is forecast marginally higher at a record 5.3 million 60 kg bags as favorable weather conditions and higher domestic prices in recent years have led to improved agronomic practices. Exports are forecast at a near-record 5.5 million 60 kg bags, led by exports of Robusta. Commodities: Coffee, Green Production: Marketing year (MY) 2012/13 (Oct/Sept) coffee production is estimated 200,000 bags higher at a record 5.3 million 60 kg bags. Growers in Karnataka, India’s largest coffee producing state, are anticipating a bumper harvest aided by the emergence of new bearing plants from plantings done several years ago; favorable weather conditions across the state have also helped to boost yields. Production in Tamil Nadu, which accounts for five percent of India’s crop, is expected to be unchanged from a year ago. Production in Kerala is expected be down 10 percent due to deficient rainfall in coffee growing areas. With Arabica entering the ‘off-year’ of the biennial cycle, output is expected to be lower compared to last year but Robusta production is expected to increase. Untimely rains occasionally occur in December and could still affect the crop. For MY 2011/12 (Oct/Sep) total production is estimated lower at 5.2 million 60 kg bags which reflects the Coffee Board’s most recent estimate based on harvest data. Trade: Exports for marketing year (2012/13) are forecast at 5.5 million 60 kg bags, down just 300,000 bags from last year’s record level due to expected larger global supplies. While global Arabica prices have dropped significantly, prices for Robusta, which comprises the bulk of Indian exports, have been relatively steady, lending support to the expectation that exports will again be near record. Export estimates for 2010/11 and 2011/12 reflect the latest data from the Coffee Board. Revisions to import estimates reflect the most recent data from the Coffee Board. Nearly all imports are processed for re-export under export programs that provide duty-free access to imports subject to re- exports. Consumption: The bulk of India’s coffee production is exported and the domestic industry focuses much of its marketing effort on export promotion. There are signs that the popularity of coffee is increasing with the spread of both foreign and home-grown coffee shops. However, exports continue to siphon large amounts of coffee away from the domestic market and consumption estimates are largely unchanged. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 1: Commodity, Coffee, Green, PSD Coffee, Green 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 India Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Oct 2011 Oct 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 0 400 0 402 0 411 Area Harvested 0 360 0 369 0 370 Bearing Trees 0 565 0 566 0 568 Non-Bearing Trees 0 64 0 65 0 64 Total Tree Population 0 629 0 631 0 632 Beginning Stocks 2,578 2,640 1,533 2,142 1,000 1,207 Arabica Production 1,570 1,570 1,730 1,660 1,675 1,640 Robusta Production 3,465 3,465 3,605 3,540 3,425 3,660 Other Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Production 5,035 5,035 5,335 5,200 5,100 5,300 Bean Imports 780 817 775 700 770 770 Roast & Ground Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Soluble Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Imports 780 817 775 700 770 770 Total Supply 8,393 8,492 7,643 8,042 6,870 7,277 Bean Exports 4,260 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,000 4,100 Rst-Grnd Exp. 0 5 0 5 0 5 Soluble Exports 1,600 1,345 1,500 1,600 1,400 1,400 Total Exports 5,860 5,350 5,600 5,805 5,400 5,505 Rst,Ground Dom. Consum 800 800 825 825 835 835 Soluble Dom. Cons. 200 200 218 205 210 210 Domestic Use 1,000 1,000 1,043 1,030 1,045 1,045 Ending Stocks 1,533 2,142 1,000 1,207 425 727 Total Distribution 8,393 8,492 7,643 8,070 6,870 7,277 Exportable Production 4,035 4,033 4,292 4,200 4,055 4,255 1000 HA, MILLION TREES, 1000 60 KG BAGS Note: The Coffee Board of India does not maintain data on total tree population but has recently started work towards developing estimates. It is not yet clear when these estimates will be finalized.
Posted: 28 November 2012

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