Indonesia coffee production is expected to decline by 5.5 percent in Marketing Year (MY) 2013/2014.
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ξ Indonesia coffee production is expected to decline by 5.5 percent in Marketing Year (MY)
2013/2014. Lower production is principally due to poor weather, to include drought conditions
during flowering, followed by excessive rainfall during early cherry development.
ξ Post estimates that bad weather impacted about 85 percent of Indonesia’s coffee producing
ξ Indonesian coffee consumption is projected to increase to 2.58 million 60-kg bags green bean
equivalent (bags) in MY 2013/2014. Consequently, Indonesia exports & ending stocks are
expected to decline, and imports are expected to increase.
ξ In addition to weather factors, Indonesian coffee exports will be challenged by Japanese carbaryl
residue levels for coffee, and strong global demand for coffee labeled with certifications from
UTZ, Rainforest Alliance, CAFÉ, and USDA Organic.
Indonesian coffee production is predicted to reach 9.165 million bags in MY 2013/2014, a 5.5 percent
drop over coffee production from MY 2012/2013. Difficult weather conditions during the flowering
and fruiting periods will decrease Indonesia’s coffee production in MY 2013/2014.
Drought occurred in 85 percent of major Indonesian coffee production areas during the critical
flowering period (June-September 2012). Drought led to poor conditions for flowering and budding.
Notes: The coffee crops that suffer from dry conditions in Central Java – September 2012
Source: Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporter of Central Java
By contrast during the onset of the most recent cherry development stage (December 2012-January
2013) most Indonesian production areas received above average levels of rainfall. Heavy rains pounded
young coffee cherries and a significant portion of the cherries were lost as a result.
As a result of floral abortion due to drought, followed by the loss of young coffee cherries due to
excessive rainfall, Post expects that Indonesian coffee production will decrease in MY 2013/2014.
No Year Activity Location
1 2007 - Specialty coffee rehabilitation 4 Prov / 4 districs 500
- Expansion of smallholder coffee plantation 1 Prov / 1 districts 100
- Expansion of Arabica coffee plantation 1 Prov / 1 districts 100
- Coffee planting 1 Prov / 1 districts 180
2 2008 - Robusta coffee rehabilitation and rejuvenation 1 Prov / 2 districts 225
- Specialty coffee development 11 Prov / 23 districts 3,746
- Development of coffee plantation in peatland area 1 Prov / 1 districts 50
3 2009 - Specialty coffee development 9 Prov / 21 districts 2,307
- Robusta coffee rehabilitation and rejuvenation 7 Prov / 8 districts 1,055
- Integrated coffee plantation and livestock 2 Prov / 3 districts
4 2010 - Development, rehabilitation, and rejuvenation of specialty coffee 12 Prov / 32 districts 5,299
- Robusta coffee rehabilitation 5 Prov / 7 districts 323
- Integrated coffee plantation and livestock 2 Prov / 4 districts 447
Coffee production in northern Sumatra, to include the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra, were
generally unaffected by aforementioned weather patterns. These two provinces account for about 15
percent of Indonesia’s national coffee production. Aceh and North Sumatra have experienced favorable
weather patterns, with relative5ly normal levels of rainfall during ke2y product0ion period1s and pos1t - Robusta coffee rehabilitation and rejuvenation 7 Prov / 13 districts 955
Ongoing issues that limit production at the farm level include limited knowledge of best practices,
widespread use of low quality and uncertified planting materials, an abundance of older, less productive
trees are factors that make - Arabica coffee planting area expansion 2 Prov / 3 districts 101 Indonesian coffee production particularly prone to random changes and/or
severe weather patterns.
The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) is aware of the abovementioned challenges small-scale
coffee producers face on their farms. Since 2007, the MOA has conducted an ongoing coffee - Expansion, rehabilitation, and rejuvenation of specialty coffee 8 Prov / 3 districts 1,426
development program that aims to intensify production, rejuvenate crops, replant new crops, and expand
planted area. The following table reflects the results of their efforts:
MOA’s Coffee Development Program 2007-2013
6 2012 - Arabica coffee expansion and Robusta coffee rejuvenation 12 Prov / 20 districts 4,600
- Intensification of specialty coffee 7 Prov / 11 districts 13,510
7 2013 - Intensification of specialty coffee (Arabica and Robusta) 12 Prov / 19 districts 5,610
Source: MOA, Directorate General of Estate Crops
Thus far the MOA’s efforts have not significantly enhanced Indonesia’s coffee production. The
program has been plagued by complicated bureaucratic problems between local and central
governments, poor coordination among Indonesian coffee stakeholders, and a top-down approach that is
ineffective in channeling support and resources to coffee farmers.
Indonesian coffee consumption is growing rapidly due to positive factors on both at the demand and
supply sides. Post predicts that domestic coffee consumption will grow from 2.49 million bags in MY
2012/2013 to 2.58 million bags in MY 2013/2014.
Increased demand stems from solid economic growth in Indonesia, higher incomes, a young population,
rapid urbanization, and a growing middle class group. Urban population in Indonesia accounted for 51
percent of total population in 2011 and according to the World Bank, it will increase to 58 percent of
total population by 2015. The World Bank also predicts that middle class consumers (defined as one
with disposable household income of over $3,000 per year) will increase from nearly 50 million people
in 2009 to approximately 150 million people by 2014.
Factors on the supply side include the growing number of local and international franchises, innovative
products, and more Indonesian entrepreneurs becoming active in coffee roasting and processing.
Three-in-one, individual packets of instant coffee are a favorite product with Indonesian consumers and
have advanced Indonesia’s domestic coffee consumption (see Indonesian Semi-Annual Coffee Report
2012). Strong growth in the coffee shop sector is another significant driver of Indonesian coffee
consumption growth. While the quantitative data that can confirm the positive growth of coffee shops
in Indonesia is currently unavailable, the growth of this sector is also evident via the following
ξ Starbucks Indonesia is committed to opening an additional 100 outlets in the next three years. If
they are successful, Starbucks will have 247 outlets by early 2016.
ξ The participants of Indonesian Barista Competition 2013 increased by 50 percent compared to
that of 2012. Furthermore, for the 2013 competition, the Specialty Coffee Association of
Indonesia (SCAI) as an organizer of Indonesian Barista Competition had to limit participants
due to higher-than-expected response. Higher participation in barista competition indicates the
establishment of new coffee shops within 2012-2013 timeframe as those baristas represents the
coffee shops where which they are employed.
ξ SCAI membership from coffee retailers has grown rapidly. SCAI affiliated retailers and coffee
shop operators can leverage their memberships to directly access SCAI affiliated Indonesian
specialty coffee suppliers.
ξ Indonesian coffee shops set themselves apart from international franchises by marketing
themselves as a place where customers can enjoy single origin Indonesian specialty coffees such
as Toraja, Preanger, Mandheling, Gayo, Flores, and Kintamani coffees. Locally owned coffee
shops tend to focus less on serving coffee flavored drinks. Their marketing pitch is focused on
real Indonesian coffee, instead of the syrup and milk laden drinks offered by international
ξ Increased demand for small-medium size roasting machines that are mainly used by individual
and coffee shops.
ξ Indonesian coffee traders report substantial increases in local sales of green coffee beans at small
quantity (5-10 bags per order) over the last three years.
The Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters predicts that Indonesian coffee export will decline by
approximately five percent in MY 2013/2014 due to lower production and stronger domestic coffee
consumption. Post expects Indonesian coffee exports to decrease from 8.1 million bags in MY
2012/2013 to 7.75 million bags in MY 2013/2014. As domestic production cannot satisfy local
demand, Indonesian coffee imports are also expected to increase from 950,000 bags in MY 2012/2013
to 1.085 million bags in MY 2013/2014.
In terms of international trade, the Indonesian coffee sector faces some challenges, to include:
ξ Carbaryl1 residue: In recent years Japan has rejected, on average, between 20 and 30 containers
of Indonesian robusta coffee beans, citing excessive levels of carbaryl residue. According to
Japanese regulators, one kilogram Indonesian robusta coffee may contain 0.5 – 0.7 mg carbaryl,
which is far above Japan’s standard of 0.01 milligram per kilogram. The Government of
Indonesia has urged Japan to harmonize its carbaryl limits with the European Union’s standard
at 0.1 milligram per kilogram. Currently CODEX does not provide carbaryl maximum residue
limits (MRL) on coffee . Japan may persist with its own standard due to the absence of
international carbaryl MRL for coffee.
ξ Increasing global demand for sustainably certified coffee. In 2001 coffees certified with
voluntary labels made up one percent of global market. By 2010, coffees with voluntary labels
constituted 8 percent in 2010. Some analysts predict that coffees bearing various certifications
will reach 20% by 2015 (Pierrot et al. 2010). Most of the world’s major coffee processors have
committed to increasing certified coffee procurement (Jeff Nielson: 2013). Nestle has
announced its intention to procure an additional 90,000 metric ton of Rainforest Alliance
certified coffee by 2020. Sara Lee will purchase at least 350,000 MT of UTZ certified coffee by
2016. The vast majority of Indonesian coffee producers, to include small holders, are not
currently certified as ‘green’, organic, or fair trade. Indonesian producers’ lack of certification
could decrease global market share for Indonesian coffee. Moreover, small-scale Indonesian
coffee producers could miss opportunities to receive higher premiums for their coffee.
Carbaryl (1-naphthyl methylcarbamate) is a chemical in the carbamate family used chiefly as an insecticide.
Lower production and stronger domestic demand will decrease Indonesian coffee stocks from 148,000
bags in MY 2012/2013 to 68,000 bags in MY 2013/2014.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
Co Market Year Begin: Apr 2011 Market Year Begin: Apr 2012 Market Year Begin: Apr 2013 ffee, Green Indonesia USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Planted 0 1,250 0 1,240 1,235
Area Harvested 0 1,150 0 1,180 1,200
Bearing Trees 0 1,215 0 1,245 1,265
Non-Bearing Trees 0 105 0 65 40
Total Tree Population 0 1,320 0 1,310 1,305
Beginning Stocks 83 83 88 88 148
Arabica Production 1,300 1,300 1,700 1,700 1,630
Robusta Production 7,000 7,000 8,000 8,000 7,535
Other Production 0 0 0 0 0
Total Production 8,300 8,300 9,700 9,700 9,165
Bean Imports 900 900 350 350 485
Roast & Ground Imports 135 135 150 150 150
Soluble Imports 400 400 450 450 450
Total Imports 1,435 1,435 950 950 1,085
Total Supply 9,818 9,818 10,738 10,738 10,398
Bean Exports 4,950 4,950 6,100 6,100 5,950
Rst-Grnd Exp. 0 0 0 0 0
Soluble Exports 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,800
Total Exports 7,450 7,450 8,100 8,100 7,750
Rst,Ground Dom. Consum 1,880 1,880 1,840 1,840 1,850
Soluble Dom. Cons. 400 400 650 650 730
Domestic Use 2,280 2,280 2,490 2,490 2,580
Ending Stocks 88 88 148 148 68
Total Distribution 9,818 9,818 10,738 10,738 10,398
1000 HA, MILLION TREES, 1000 60 KG BAGS