Citrus Annual Report

An Expert's View about Citrus Fruits in Israel

Posted on: 20 Jan 2012

In 2011/12, Post forecasts total citrus production of about 578,000 MT, a 27 percent increase compared to the sharp drop in production the previous year.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 12/22/2011 GAIN Report Number: IS1109 Israel Citrus Annual Report Approved By: Jonathan P Gressel Prepared By: Gilad Shachar Report Highlights: In 2011/12, Post forecasts total citrus production of about 578,000 MT, a 27 percent increase compared to the sharp drop in production the previous year. The increase is mainly due to normal growing conditions and preventative treatments for insect infestations which should allow a return to average yields. In addition, plantations of easy peelers, mainly Or variety, are reaching bearing and higher yielding ages. In MY 2010/11 local citrus production reached a record low of 455,000 tons, a 20 percent decrease compared to the previous year. The decrease was mainly a result of a white moth that attacked the flowers (during the blooming period) combined with a severe stormy weather (very strong winds) at the end of December. In MY 2011/12, citrus exports are expected to increase about 17 percent from the previous year, and delivery to processing plants is expected to increase about 40 percent compared to the previous year. Exports have increased to the more distant markets and this trend is expected to continue, mainly to the U.S, Korea, and China. Export demand for easy peelers is the source of most of this growth. Executive Summary Main characteristics of 2010/11 season: In MY 2010/11 local citrus production reached a record low of 455,000 tons, a 20 percent decrease compared to the previous MY. Out of the total production, 155,000 tons (34 percent) were exported, 140,000 tons processed (31 percent), and the remainder consumed fresh (160,000 tons) A white moth that attacked the trees during the blooming period (spring 2010) caused heavy damages especially to the oranges, easy-peelers and lemons crop. Continuous uprooting of old Marsh grapefruit, old Shamutis and Sweetie orchards, reduced the total production. A severe stormy weather (very strong winds) at the end of December 2010 caused a loss of about 40,000 tons of fruit Although the record low production, export volumes decreased by only 14 percent compared to the previous MY. Exports have increased to more distant markets and this trend is expected to continue in MY 2011/12, mainly to the U.S, South Korea, and China. As a result of the record low citrus production, local market prices increased by about 15 percent. Therefore, income of the local growers was relatively good. Citrus processing industry prices were 50 percent higher compared to the previous year. Export prices were 10 percent higher compared to the previous season, excluding red grapefruits. Main characteristics forecast for the 2011/12 season: In MY 2011/12, Post forecasts that supplies of local citrus will reach their normal growing yields combined with continued production increase in local easy peelers (mainly Or variety). Citrus production in Israel is forecast at 578,000 tons, a 27 percent increase compared to the previous year. Strong export demand for easy peelers (tangerines/mandarins) is driving the increase in planting and production. Out of the total production, approximately 181,000 tons (31 percent) is expected to be exported, 195,000 tons processed (34 percent), and the remainder consumed fresh (202,000 tons) In August 2011, planted area totaled 18,200 ha, of which about 14,573 ha (80 percent) were fruit-bearing. In CY 2011 and 2010, 1,954 ha of fresh citrus were planted (1,300 ha in 2010, and 654 ha in 2011), mainly tangerines (72 percent). On the other hand, due to low profitability, about 530 ha of citrus were uprooted in 2011 mainly shamouti oranges (238 ha,), Star-Rubi grapefruit (88 ha,) Valencia oranges (88 ha) and white grapefruit (46 ha). In CY 2011, planted area of the Or variety totaled 3,600 ha, which accounts for 20 percent of total citrus planted area. Production The forecast for 2011/12 is for a total production of about 578,000 MT, a 27 percent increase compared to the previous year. In MY 2010/11 local citrus production reached a record low of 455,000 tons, a 20 percent decrease compared to the previous year. In MY 2010/11 the decrease was mainly a result of a white moth that attacked the flowers (during the blooming period) combined with a severe stormy weather (very strong winds) at the end of December 2010. In addition, continuous uprooting in the last few years of old Marsh grapefruit, old Shamutis and Sweetie orchards, reduced the total local citrus production in MY 2010/11. Oranges – Due to the preventing treatment against the white moth that attacked the flowers in the previous year (spraying program), oranges production in MY 2011/12 is expected to increase about 30 percent to 131,000 tons. The two main varieties are Shamuti and Navels. Easy Peelers – In recent years, as a result of the increased new easy peelers plantations, tangerines production increased (excluding the previous year when tangerines also suffered from the white moth and the stormy weather), and is expected to continue to increase in the coming years. It is estimated that in 2015, easy peelers production will total about 200,000 tons, compared to 169,000 tons in MY 2011/12, a 25 percent increase. Due to increased plantations of the leading “Or” variety in recent years, it is expected that by 2015, “Or” variety production will reach about 100,000 tons, a 20 percent of total citrus production, and will be the growth engine of the Israeli citrus sector in the coming years. Grapefruit – Due to preventative measures against the white moth (spraying program), grapefruit production in MY 2011/12 is expected to increase about 7 percent to 205,000 tons. Lemons – In 2011/12, it is estimated that local production of lemons will total approximately 60,000 tons, a 100 percent increase compared to the previous year. This significant increase is mainly due the prevented treatment against the white moth combined with newly bearing lemon plantations. Other Citrus - Due to continued aggressive competition from China combined with uprooting of white and red pomelo in recent years, other citrus production is expected to stabilize at 10,000- 12,000 in the coming years. Table 1: Citrus Production by Varieties, Thousand Tons Total Easy Lemon and Grapefruit Other MY Production Orange Peelers Lime Citrus [1] 2007/8 560.0 125.0 145.0 35.0 242.0 13.0 2008/9 567.0 155.0 139.0 29.0 232.0 12.0 2009/10 595.0 148.0 150.0 48.0 235.0 14.0 2010/11 455.0 100.0 125.0 30.0 190.0 10.0 2011/12* 578.0 131.0 169.0 61.0 205.0 12.0 Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus division, Israel *Forecast: Based on information collected Table 2: Species Share Out of Total Production, Percent MY Oranges Easy Peelers Lemon Grapefruit Other Citrus Total 2007/8 22.3 25.9 6.3 43.2 2.3 100 2008/9 27.3 24.5 5.1 40.9 2.2 100 2009/10 24.9 25.2 8.1 39.0 2.8 100 2010/11 22.0 27.5 6.6 41.7 2.2 100 2011/12* 22.7 29.2 10.5 35.5 2.1 100 Table 3: Citrus Disposition, by Destination, Tons Delivery to Processors Period Total Exports Local Fresh Market MY Quantity % Quantity % Quantity % Total Percent 2007/8 172,059 30.7 212,097 37.9 175,844 31.4 100 2008/9 173,413 30.6 223,310 39.4 170,277 30.0 100 2009/10 179,039 30.0 182,203 30.6 234,531 39.4 100 2010/11 154,708 34.1 139,906 30.1 160,000 35.8 100 2011/12* 181,000 31.3 195,000 33.7 202,000 35.0 100 Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus division, Israel Table 4: Fresh Citrus Production by Varieties, Tons, MY 2011/12 Variety 2011/12 Market Share Shamuti 58,500 10.1% Valencia 28,000 4.8% Navels 42,000 7.3% Others 2,500 0.4% Total Oranges 131,000 22.6% White Grapefruit 63,000 10.9% Sunrise 111,000 19.2% Sweetie 30,000 5.2% Others 1,000 0.2% Total Grapefruit 205,000 35.5% Or 53,500 9.3% Ora 10,300 1.8% Hadas 2,000 0.3% Topaz 9,000 1.6% Mor 4,000 0.7% Morcot 9,200 1.6% Michal 24,000 4.2% Minneola 17,100 3.0% Merav 4,400 0.8% Nova 22,900 3.9% Chasuma 8,500 1.5% Rishon 1,900 0.3% Others 2,200 0.4% Total Easy Peelers 169,000 29.4% Total Lemon 60,000 10.4% Lime 1,500 0.3% White Pomelo 6,800 1.1% Red Pomelo 3,300 0.5% Limquat 150 0.0% Kumquat 1,000 0.2% Other 250 0.0% Total Other Citrus 13,000 2.1% Grand Total 578,000 100% Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus Division, Israel Other Citrus- Kumquat, Ethrog (Citron), Red & White Pomelo, Limquat. Planted Area In August 2011, planted area totaled 18,000 ha, of which about 15,000 ha (83 percent) were fruit- bearing. In CY 2011 and 2010, a total of 1,954 ha of fresh citrus were planted (see table below), mainly easy peelers (72 percent). Out of total new mandarins plantations, about 50 percent were “Or” variety. On the other hand, due to low profitability, about 530 ha of citrus were uprooted in 2011 mainly shamouti (238 ha, orange), Star-Rubi (88 ha, grapefruit) Valencia (88 ha, orange), white grapefruit (46 ha) and easy peelers (71 ha). All in all, in 2011 the trade-off between uprooting and new plantations was positive and totaled 124 ha, meaning more plantations than uprooting. In addition, it is expected that uprooting in CY 2012 will total about 500 ha, while new plantations will total about 1,000 ha. Meaning total citrus area will continue to increase in 2012. It is expected that in CY 2015 about 5,000 ha would be “Or” and “Odem” mandarins varieties. In CY 2011, planted area of the Or variety totaled 3,600 ha, which accounts for 20 percent of total citrus planted area. Table 5: New Citrus Plantations, Ha, CY 2010 2011 Total (ha) % Of Total Oranges 135 116 251 13.8% Grapefruit 29 13 42 2.3% Lemons 53 53 106 5.8% Easy peelers 942 461 1,403 77.0% Others 9 11 20 1.1% Total 1,168 654 1,822 100% Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus Division, Israel According to table 6, in the first 2 age groups (0-5 and 5-10), the main varieties are easy peelers, while in the old age group (above 20 years), the main varieties are Shamuti, Valencia, grapefruit and lemons. Table 6: Citrus Orchards by age, Out of total Planted Citrus Area 2011 0-5 years 29.3% 5-10 years 13.4% 10-15 years 11.6% 15-20 years 14.6% Above 20 years 31.1% Total 100% Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus Division, Israel Consumption In 2011/12, it is estimated that local consumption of fresh citrus will total approximately 202,000 tons, a 21 percent increase from the previous year. The expected increase in local consumption is mainly due to the expected increase in local citrus production and resulting lower prices. As a result of the shortage of local citrus supplies and higher prices in the previous year, local consumption decreased by about 15-20 percent. On the other hand, as a result of the record low citrus production, local market prices increased by about 15 percent. All in all, income of the local growers was relatively good and compensated for the low crop. It should be mentioned that a portion of the local citrus production is sold in the West Bank (the figures are not known). As the economic situation in the West Bank is improving, more Israeli citrus will be consumed in the West Bank. The West Bank can be one of the most important growth engines for the Israeli citrus industry in the coming years. The Processing Industry With more normal supply in MY 2011/12, deliveries to the processing plants are forecast at 195,000 tons, a nearly 40 percent increase compared to the previous year. As a result of the record low citrus production in MY 2010/11, deliveries to the processing plants reached a record low of 140,000 tons, a 23 percent decrease compared to the previous MY, and 50 percent decrease compared to MY 2006/7. Although citrus processing industry prices in MY 2010/11 were 50 percent higher compared to the previous year, most of the citrus fruits were delivered to the local fresh market and for exports, and as a result deliveries to the processing plants reached a record low. All in all, deliveries to the processing plants have decreased in recent years (see table 7). The main reason for the decrease is due to the fact that in recent years the prices that the local processing industry paid to the growers were significantly lower than prices that were paid by the export and local fresh markets. Table 7: Delivery to the Processing Plants, MY, Tons 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 Tons % Tons % Tons % Tons % Oranges 83,750 20 53,500 24 45,772 25 18 Grapefruit 156,750 68 141,674 63 107,076 59 63 Easy Peelers and O 00 12 28,136 13 29,355 16 19 th 42,5ers Total 100 100 100 100 Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus Division, Israel Trade Despite record low production in the 2010/11, export volumes decreased by only 14 percent compared to the previous MY and totaled 155,000 tons. Income of the local growers from exports was better than the previous year. Export prices in MY 2010/11 were about 12 percent higher compared to the previous season, excluding red grapefruits. The increased income from export is mainly due to new plantations of profitable citrus varieties (mainly easy peelers, and especially “Or” variety) on the account of non-profitable citrus varieties (mainly oranges and white grapefruits). “Or” variety retail prices in the EU markets were 1.5-1.8 Euros per kg, while prices for other easy peelers varieties were 0.7-1.2 Euros per kg. Export demand for tangerines (mainly “Or” variety) is the most important growth engine for the Israeli citrus sector in the coming years. Out of total citrus exports in 2010/11, 53 percent and 36 percent were the grapefruit and tangerines varieties, respectively. In recent years, easy peelers exports have increased (excluding 2010/11), and is expected to continue to increase in the coming years, led mainly by the “Or” variety (55 percent of total tangerines exports). On the other hand, the market share for oranges has continued to decrease by 33 percent, from 12 percent market share in 2009/10 to 8 percent market share in 2010/11. The decreased oranges exports is mainly due to growing competition from other countries (Spain, Italy, Morocco, Turkey and Egypt). Exports in 2011/12 are forecast to increase about 17 percent compared to the previous year and will total 181,000 tons. The expected increase in exports is mainly due to the expected recovery of local citrus production. Table 8: Fresh Citrus Exports by Varieties, Tons, MY Others White Grapefruit 9% 4% Orri 20% Red Grapefruit 40% Nova 8% Mineolla 2010/11 % Change Variety 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 Compared to 2009/10 2011/12* Oranges 5% 20,000 - 42.5% Grapefruit 82,651 85,000 - 2.0% Easy 56,072 70,000 - Peelers Lemon 501 3,000 - 73.3% Other 3,016 3,000 - 6.0% Citrus Grand 181,000 -13.6% Shamuti Total Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus Division, Israel * Forecast: Based on information collected. Sweetie Chart 1: Exports by Major Varieties, MY 2010/11, Percentage of Total Exports 6% 8% Easy Peelers - Or, Nova, Mineolla Oranges Shamuti Sweetie is a kind of Grapefruit In recent years, there was a change in the Israeli export markets, and in the last two years Russia became one of the best two markets for Israeli citrus with a twenty percent market share, while the other best market for Israeli citrus is still the U.K. also with a twenty percent market share. About fifty percent of Israeli citrus exports go to the EU market, and 10 percent to more distant markets. Exports have increased to more distant markets, e.g., the United States, South Korea and China and this trend is expected to continue in MY 2011/12. Japan and S. Korea - Exports of the sweetie variety to Japan in 2010/11 decreased 7 percent from the previous year (from 3,750 tons to 3,500 tons), and a continued decrease is expected in 2011/12. On the other hand, it is expected that in 2011/12 a first shipment of the “Or” variety (easy peeler) will be shipped to Japan (about 200 tons). In addition, Sweetie exports to S. Korea are expected to increase by about 100 percent in 2011/12 compared to the previous years, from 500 tons to 1,000 tons. U.S. and Canada – It is expected that exports of Israeli citrus to N. America will increase by about 100 percent in 2011/12, from 1,500 tons to about 3,000 tons. Export are mainly of easy peelers, “Or” and “Nova” varieties. Table 9: Israeli Fresh Citrus Export to Japan, Cases, MY MY 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Sweetie 268,152 246,344 213,472 Red Pomelo 4,064 5,208 1,092 ,552 0 White G 4,536 11rapefruit Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus Division, Israel Oranges – Due to continued competition from other orange suppliers combined with a record low citrus production (mainly Shamouti), exports of oranges in MY 2010/11 decreased by nearly 54 percent compared MY 2008/9. Shamouti exports decreased by 50 percent in 2010/11 compared to the previous 2 years, and totaled 8,696 tons. It is expected that oranges exports in MY 2011/12 will increase to about 20,000 tons, a 60 percent increase compared to the previous year. The increase is mainly due to the forecast that supplies of local citrus (including oranges) will recover in MY 2011/12. Table 10: Oranges Varieties Exports, MY, Tons 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2010/11 % Change Compared to 2009/10 Navels 1,843 1,895 663 -65% Shamuti 17,449 17,302 8,696 -50% Valencia 7,705 2,461 3,051 24% Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus Division, Israel Easy Peelers – Although total easy peelers exports decreased by nearly 18 percent in MY 2010/11 compared to the previous year, “Or” variety exports reached a record high of 31,000 tons, a 19 percent increase compared to the previous year. “Or” variety exports are expected to continue to increase in MY 2011/12 and will total about 36,000 tons, a 16 percent increase, and the Israeli Citrus Board local trade forecasts that “Or” variety exports in MY 2014/15 will reach about 92,000 tons, a 190 percent increase compared to MY 2010/11. Most of the “Or” variety is exported from January through March. Total easy peelers’ exports are estimated to total about 70,000 tons, nearly 25 percent increase compared to the previous year. Table 11: Easy-Peelers Varieties Exports, MY, Tons 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2010/11 % Change Compared to 2009/10 Mineolla 6,901 11,667 6,964 -40% Nova 17,829 18,628 11,684 -37% Or 17,956 25,973 30,986 19% Others 12,009 11,716 6,438 -45% Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus Division, Israel Grapefruit – In 2010/11, exports of red grapefruit increased by 5 percent compared to the previous year. Red grapefruit exports are expected to continue to grow by 5 percent in 2011/12. Out of total grapefruit exports, 77 percent are red grapefruit. On the other hand, exports of White grapefruit in 2010/11 continued to decrease by 38 percent from the previous year and totaled 6,627 mt. In addition, exports of sweetie variety decreased nearly 3 percent compared to the previous year. The decrease was mainly due to decrease in sweetie exports to Japan. Total grapefruit exports in MY 2011/12 are expected to increase slightly compared to the previous year and will total about 85,000 tons, a 2 percent increase compared to the previous year. Table 12: Grapefruit Varieties Exports, MY, Tons 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2010/11 % Change Compared to 2009/10 White 11,480 10,764 6,627 -38% Grapefruit Red Grapefruit 60,338 61,111 63,973 5% Sweetie 13,362 12,439 12,051 -3% Source: The Plants Production and Marketing Board, Citrus Division, Israel Other Citrus – Despite the continued aggressive competition from China, in MY 2010/110 pomelo (red and white) exports increased by 7 percent compared to the previous year to 2,424 mt. However, post forecasts that due to the continued pomelo aggressive competition from China combined with the uprooting of the pomelo in recent years, pomelo exports in the coming years will decrease by about 10 percent. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Fresh Grapefruit Grapefruit, Fresh Israel 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 4,840 4,840 4,750 4,700 4,660 Area Harvested 4,260 4,260 4,210 4,180 4,140 Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Non-Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Total No. Of Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Production 235 235 225 190 205 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 235 235 225 190 205 Exports 84 84 90 83 85 Fresh Dom. Consumption 44 44 31 19 21 For Processing 107 107 104 88 99 Total Distribution 235 235 225 190 205 HECTARES, 1000 TREES, 1000 MT Fresh Oranges Oranges, Fresh Israel 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 4,550 4,550 4,350 4,350 4,400 Area Harvested 4,010 4,010 3,900 3,900 3,950 Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Non-Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Total No. Of Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Production 148 148 140 100 131 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 148 148 140 100 131 Exports 22 22 20 12 20 Fresh Dom. Consumption 80 80 82 63 65 For Processing 46 46 38 25 46 Total Distribution 148 148 140 100 131 HECTARES, 1000 TREES, 1000 MT Fresh Tangerines/Mandarins Tangerines/Mandarins, Fresh Israel 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 5,600 5,600 6,100 6,100 6,500 Area Harvested 4,250 4,250 4,600 4,600 4,800 Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Non-Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Total No. Of Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Production 150 150 160 125 169 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 150 150 160 125 169 Exports 67 68 77 56 70 Fresh Dom. Consumption 56 55 57 47 52 For Processing 27 27 26 22 47 Total Distribution 150 150 160 125 169 HECTARES, 1000 TREES, 1000 MT Fresh Lemons/Limes Lemons/Limes, Fresh Israel 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 1,830 1,830 1,830 1,830 1,845 Area Harvested 1,550 1,550 1,570 1,570 1,580 Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Non-Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Total No. Of Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Production 48 48 50 30 61 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 48 48 50 30 61 Exports 2 2 3 1 3 Fresh Dom. Consumption 44 44 45 27 55 For Processing 2 2 2 2 3 Total Distribution 48 48 50 30 61 HECTARES, 1000 TREES, 1000 MT Other Citrus Citrus, Other, Fresh Israel 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2009 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 600 555 560 Area Harvested 560 540 540 Bearing Trees 0 0 0 Non-Bearing Trees 0 0 0 Total No. Of Trees 0 0 0 Production 14 10 12 Imports 0 0 0 Total Supply 14 10 12 Exports, Fresh 3 3 3 Fresh Dom. Consumption 11 7 9 For Processing 0 0 0 Total Distribution 14 10 12 HECTARES, 1000 TREES, 1000 MT Orange Juice Orange Juice Israel 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Deliv. To Processors 46,000 46,000 38,000 25,000 46,000 Beginning Stocks 460 460 500 500 800 Production 4,200 4,200 3,500 2,300 4,200 Imports 26,340 26,340 29,050 30,000 26,400 Total Supply 31,000 31,000 33,050 32,800 31,400 Exports 15,000 15,000 16,500 16,100 15,600 Domestic Consumption 15,500 15,500 16,100 15,900 15,400 Ending Stocks 500 500 450 800 400 Total Distribution 31,000 31,000 33,050 32,800 31,400 MT
Posted: 20 January 2012

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