Citrus Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Citrus Fruits in Japan

Posted on: 30 Dec 2012

Japanese growers expect a good mandarin crop for MY2012/13 despite being an “off-year.”

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 12/21/2012 GAIN Report Number: JA2032 Japan Citrus Annual Changes in Japanese Consumer Preferences Signal Opportunities for Sweeter Citrus Varieties Approved By: Jennifer Clever Prepared By: Yuichi Hayashi, Jennifer Clever Report Highlights: Japanese growers expect a good mandarin crop for MY2012/13 despite being an “off-year.” In MY2011/12, Japanese imports of U.S. mandarins held steady. Imports of U.S. grapefruit slowed but are expected to rebound in the coming year. Japanese imports of U.S. oranges grew for the third consecutive season. In MY2011/12 Japanese total imports of orange juice slowed while Japanese lemon production reached another record year. The renegotiation of the Japan-Mexico Economic Partnership Agreement resulted in greater market access to Mexican citrus products. Tangerines/Mandarins PS&D table: Tangerines/Mandarins, Fresh Japan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 54,120 54,290 53,000 53,040 51,830 Area Harvested 51,300 51,470 50,180 50,320 49,110 Bearing Trees** 30,780 30,780 30,110 30,110 0 Non-Bearing Trees** 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 0 Total No. Of Trees** 35,860 35,860 35,190 35,190 0 Production 882 857 1,015 1,001 981 Imports 21 21 22 20 20 Total Supply 903 878 1,037 1,021 1,001 Exports 2 2 3 3 2 Fresh Dom. Consumption 813 791 913 903 899 For Processing 88 85 121 115 100 Total Distribution 903 878 1,037 1,021 1,001 * Area measured in hectares ** Estimate of number of trees was discontinued due to lack of statistics # Production, Imports, Exports, and Consumption measured in thousands of metric tons Production Post estimates Japanese production of fresh mandarins in MY 2012/13 to be 981,000 metric tons, a 2 percent decrease compared to last season. This estimate includes the “unshu mikan” tangerines and the late mandarin varieties, “iyokan” and “hassaku. As part of the mandarin tree’s natural production cycle, this season Japanese mandarin trees are experiencing was is typically referred to as an “off-year.” Nonetheless, Japanese mikan mandarin growers expect to have a good crop thanks to this year’s longer summer and fewer typhoons. Hence, MAFF estimates domestic mikan mandarin production to decrease by only 2 percent to 910,000 metric tons. Source: MAFF Statistics. *Post Estimate Japan’s harvested acreage for mikan mandarins continues to decline. Mikan mandarins are often harvested on the south side of steep hills, which provide ideal growing conditions for citrus fruits. However, it is extremely hard for aging Japanese farmers to harvest in such locations. Additionally, growers seeking a higher return on their investment are substituting mikan mandarin trees with different citrus tree varieties such as lemon. These trends continue to contribute significantly to the reduction in total mandarin acreage. Thus, in MY2012/13, the harvest acreage for mikan mandarins is expected to decline to 44,500 hectares. Consumption The latest data available from the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) reports that the 2011 annual Japanese consumption of fresh mandarins was 11.8 kilograms per household, compared to 12.7 kilograms in 2010. Mikan mandarins are one of Japanese consumers’ favorite fresh fruits representing about 14 percent of fresh fruit consumption in 2011. In addition, annual household expenditures on mandarins remain significantly above expenditures on other fresh citrus fruits. That said, Japanese household consumption of fresh fruit overall, with only a few exceptions, has been declining annually for more than two decades. The total per household consumption of all fresh fruit items declined to 83 kilograms in 2011 from 115 kilograms in 1992. In the case of mikan mandarins, 2010 Japanese household consumption was only half the amount consumed in 1992. Younger consumers tend to eat significantly fewer mandarins than their elders, because they reportedly prefer the ease of eating fruit that does not require peeling. The Japanese industry has been trying to encourage the younger generations to consume more mandarins by introducing ready-to-eat mandarin products such as cut fruit and jelly-fruit cups. However, these efforts are unlikely to offset the decline in Japanese mikan mandarin consumption in MY2012/2013. Trade (Imports) Japan: Imports of fresh mandarins Marketing year: October-September / Quantity in metric tons MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 World 10,109 9,265 10,797 21,406 20,313 United States 7,861 7,160 9,128 17,650 16,635 Market share: 78% 77% 85% 82% 82% Australia 1,307 1,374 962 2,276 2,097 New Zealand 380 494 328 866 980 Chile 156 151 282 513 261 Taiwan 82 81 97 102 91 All other 323 5 0 0 249 Source: Global Trade Atlas In MY 2011/12, total Japanese mandarin imports remained about the same as the previous season, totaling 20,313 metric tons and accounting for about 2 percent of total domestic tangerine/mandarin consumption. Japanese imports of U.S. tangerines held relatively steady from last year’s record level at 16,635 metric tons, valued at $22 million. Shipping mainly Minneola tangelos, the United States is by far the largest supplier of tangerines to Japan, accounting for 82 percent of total imports last season. Japanese traders report that U.S. Minneola tangelos have a good reputation among Japanese consumers and are considered to be high quality fruit. Hence, traders expect the U.S. Minneola to remain a key citrus product in the Japanese market. During MY2011/12, Australia supplied about 2,097 metric tons of Murcott mandarins to Japan, relatively unchanged from last year. Similar to U.S. Minneola tangelos, Australian Murcott mandarins are known for their high quality and are well accepted among Japanese consumers. Traders report that during the last past few years, Australian citrus growers have been actively promoting sales of Australian Murcott and other Australian citrus products in Japan. Source: Global Trade Atlas For MY 2012/13, post anticipates Japanese world imports of fresh mandarins will hold steady at 20,000 metric tons. Despite a good domestic crop, trade sources believe that imports of fresh mandarins will hold steady as the majority of foreign mandarins were imported towards the end of the Japanese citrus season. For instance, in 2012, 94 percent of the total imports of U.S. tangerines were imported between March and May. Hence, imported mandarins did not have to compete with domestic mandarins for shelf-space in retail stores. Trade (Exports) Japan: Exports of fresh mandarins Marketing year: October-September / Quantity in metric tons MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 World 4,659 3,331 2,770 2,147 2,544 United States 218 109 103 56 0 Market share: 5% 3% 4% 3% 0% Canada 4,011 2,924 2,065 1,648 2,165 Hong Kong 163 130 252 200 127 Taiwan 187 90 170 137 130 Singapore 43 33 97 48 56 All other 37 45 83 58 66 Source: Global Trade Atlas Japanese exports of tangerines are fairly small. In MY2011/12, Japan exported 2,544 metric tons of mikan mandarins to the world, valued at $4.4 million (FOB). The majority of Japanese exports, 2,165 metric tons were shipped to Canada. Only about 300 metric tons went to neighboring Asian countries. Prices Japan: Fresh “Unshu mikan” Prices - Wholesale, Retail Wholesale Prices Retail Prices (Yen/KG) (Yen/KG) 2011 2011 October ¥170 October ¥503 November ¥176 November ¥455 December ¥193 December ¥455 2012 2012 January ¥207 January ¥546 February ¥239 February ¥593 March ¥262 March ¥678 April …. April …. May …. May …. June …. June …. July …. July …. August …. August …. September 283 September ¥822 Source: MAFF Source: MIC * Wholesale prices are average wholesale prices at the major wholesale markets. (Seikabutsu Ryutsu Tokei) ** Retail prices are average retail prices in the Metro Tokyo area. Retail prices were lower this year due to “on-year.” Policy The Japan-Mexico Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA): The Japan-Mexico EPA has been in effect since April 1, 2005. Under this EPA, Mexican mandarins were excluded from tariff reductions. Hence, imports of Mexican mandarins face Japan’s WTO Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff rate of 17 percent. Import Duties: Japan: Import Duties 2012 Tariff Code es Duty Rate cription (HS D) (%)* Fresh Mandarins (including tangerines), Clementines, Wilkings and similar 0805.20-000 17% citrus hybrid Source: Japan’s Customs Tariff Schedules for 2012 * all duties are charged on a CIF basis Grapefruit PS&D Table: Grapefruit, Fresh Japan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official P USDA Official New Post ost Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Non-Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Total No. Of Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Production 0 0 0 0 0 Imports 167 167 160 149 160 Total Supply 167 167 160 149 160 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Fresh Dom. Consumption 167 167 160 149 160 For Processing 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 167 167 160 149 160 # Production, Imports, Exports, and Consumption measured in thousands of metric tons Production Japan does not produce grapefruit. Consumption According to the latest available data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), in 2011, Japanese annual consumption of grapefruit decreased 3 percent to 2.45 kilograms per household. After increasing in 2010 to 260.6 yen or ($3.16) per kilogram, the 2011 average grapefruit price lowered to 240. 3 yen ($3.09) per kilogram, down roughly 8 percent.* Even if grapefruit prices continue to fall in the coming years, industry sources speculate that any possible increases in grapefruit consumption may be offset by Japanese consumers increasing preference towards sweeter citrus varieties. *The exchange rate of 77.54 per dollar is based on the Nikkei News quote of November, 2011. Trade (Imports) Japan: Imports of fresh grapefruit Marketing year: October-September / Quantity in metric tons MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 World 188,015 180,248 167,783 167,081 149,145 United States 128,039 115,500 117,140 108,199 96,438 Market share: 68% 64% 70% 65% 65% South Africa 49,842 57,778 44,612 53,793 47,748 Israel 5,392 3,727 3,824 3,492 2,850 Swaziland 4,501 3,240 2,206 888 0 Turkey 0 0 0 465 1,639 Mexico 0 0 0 93 42 Australia 0 3 0 90 386 All other 241 0 1 61 42 Source: Global Trade Atlas After peaking in MY2004/05, Japanese total grapefruit imports continued its downward trend through MY2011/12. While the current strong yen is advantageous for importers, importer benefits have been slightly offset by increasing grapefruit CIF prices. The average CIF price for grapefruits has been increasing at about 3.5 percent annually since MY2006/07. Given shorter U.S. supplies to the Japanese market during MY2011/12, some of the importer costs were transferred to consumers in the form of higher retail prices pushing the more budget-conscious buyers away from purchasing grapefruit. The United States is the largest supplier of fresh grapefruit to Japan, supplying approximately 65 percent of total Japanese imports. In MY2011/12, the United States supplied 96,438 metric tons of grapefruit, down approximately 11 percent from the previous year and valued at $114 million on a CIF basis. Grapefruits from Florida account for about 90 percent of U.S. grapefruit shipments to Japan. Consequently, shorter Florida grapefruit supplies during MY2011/12 pressed the volume of Japanese imports of U.S. grapefruit to its lowest level since MY2005/06. However, according to the Florida Department of Citrus, the new MY2012/13 crop is predicted to increase for the first time in six years, by 7.7 percent, and improve the availability of U.S. supplies to this market. Industry sources anticipate that in MY2012/13, Japanese imports of Florida grapefruit could rebound for the first time since MY2006/07 and increase slightly to 5.5 million cartons or 93,500 metric tons. Correspondingly, for MY2012/13 post expects overall level of Japanese imports of grapefruit will recover to previous years’ levels to about 160,000 metric tons. Source: Global Trade Atlas South Africa is the second largest country exporting grapefruit to Japan, accounting for approximately 32 percent of Japanese total imports (including imports from Swaziland). In MY2011/12, Japanese imports of South African grapefruit decreased by 11 percent. Imports from South African fell to 47,648 metric tons and were valued at $47 million on a CIF basis. South African grapefruit is available in Japan between June and October, before the arrival of Florida grapefruit, and as such, does not compete directly with United States. Similar to the previous season, industry sources indicate that traders intend to maintain a similar level of grapefruit imports from South Africa to avoid oversupplying the Japanese market, as it happened during the summer of 2011. Post anticipates that in MY2012/13 Japanese imports of South African grapefruit to remain unchanged at roughly 3 million cartons or 47,000 metric tons. California is also an important supplier of grapefruit to Japan, ensuring grapefruit supplies between the Florida grapefruit shipping season and the South African season. California usually ships “Star Ruby” grapefruit to Japan during the spring time and “Summer Ruby” grapefruit in the fall. In MY2011/12, Florida’s shipping season ended about four weeks earlier than usual. As a result, shipments of “Star Ruby” to Japan increased slightly from the previous season to about 696,000 cartons (11,832 MT). Meanwhile, shipments of “Summer Ruby” fell from the previous season to 174,000 cartons (2,958 MT). Additionally, the “Rio Star” (red/ruby) grapefruit variety from Texas accounts for the remainder of U.S. grapefruit shipped to Japan, and is marketed from October through February. Shipments of Rio Star to Japan are expected to remain steady in the coming year. Following the removal of Japan’s import ban on Turkish grapefruit in 2010, Turkey has been shipping grapefruits for the last two seasons. During MY2011/12, Japan imported 1,639 metric tons of grapefruits from Turkey, with a value of $1.6 million on a CIF basis. Despite the jump in imports from the previous year, trade sources expect it may take a few more years of trials to see whether Turkish grapefruit suits the Japanese palate. Thus, in the near future, Post does not anticipate the volume of Japanese imports of Turkish grapefruit to reach the level of larger grapefruit suppliers. Similarly, the Japanese government granted complete market access to Australian grapefruit in June 2010. Previously, Australia was only allowed to ship grapefruit sourced from fruit fly pest-free areas. During the second importing season, Japanese imports of Australian grapefruit quadrupled but volumes remain relatively small compared to other suppliers. Trade statistics suggest that Australia is not a major supplier of grapefruit when compared to other more active suppliers to this market. Post does not expect shipments of Australian grapefruit to have any near-term impact on the U.S. share of the Japanese grapefruit market. Mexico has been shipping grapefruit to Japan since MY2010/11 taking advantage of the phased out duties under the Japan-Mexico Economic Partnership Agreement (see policy section). According to industry sources, Japan is still importing Mexican grapefruit on a sample basis and it may take several more trial seasons to see whether volumes will increase significantly. Industry sources indicate that the taste quality of Mexican grapefruit is good but the color is rather green, and the fruit often requires coloring before the produce hits the retail shelves. The coloring process reportedly adds to the cost of the product and reduces the product’s shelf-life. Hence, despite the preferential tariff, Post does not anticipate any major increases in the volume of Mexican grapefruit to the Japanese grapefruit market at this time. Prices: Japan: Fresh Grapefruit Prices - Import, Wholesale, Retail Import CIF Prices Wholesale Prices Retail Prices (US $/KG) (Yen/KG) (Yen/KG) 2011 2011 2011 October $1.36 October ¥100 October ¥270 November $1.29 November ¥116 November ¥283 December $1.23 December ¥153 December ¥303 2012 2012 2012 January $1.21 January ¥151 January ¥294 February $1.67 February ¥144 February ¥267 March $1.14 March ¥145 March ¥276 April $1.18 April ¥152 April ¥278 May $1.13 May ¥151 May ¥277 June $1.05 June ¥151 June ¥289 July $0.96 July ¥147 July ¥280 August $0.98 August ¥141 August ¥263 September $0.95 September ¥139 September ¥271 Source: GTA Source: MAFF Source: MIC * Import prices are average import CIF prices. ** Wholesale prices are average wholesale prices at the major wholesale markets. (Seikabutsu Ryutsu Tokei) *** Retail prices are average retail prices in the Metro Tokyo area. Policy The Japan-Mexico Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) The Japan/Mexico EPA has been in effect since April 1, 2005. On April 1, 2011 Japanese duties on Mexican grapefruit were fully eliminated. Tariff concessions under the Japan/Mexico EPA agreement can be found at the following website: http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/latin/mexico/agreement/index.html Import Duties: Japan: Import Duties 2012 Tariff Code (HS) Description Duty Rate (%)* 0805.40-000 Fresh grapefruit 10% Source: Customs Tariff Schedules of Japan 2012 * all duties are charged on a CIF basis Policy Issues Affecting U.S. Grapefruit Exports: Findings of Lasiodiplodia Theobromae: In December 2012, a shipment of Florida Grapefruit was detained at port due to findings of Lasiodiplodia theobromae. This pathogen is listed in the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries’ (MAFF) quarantine pest list. Under MAFF policy, if the fruit in a lot presented for inspection shows easily identifiable symptoms of any pathogens on the list, MAFF has the discretion to order the segregation of the entire shipment. While MAFF policy has been in practice for over a decade, MAFF revised its quarantine pest list in 2011. MAFF’s quarantine pest list can be accessed at the link below. http://www.pps.go.jp/law_active/Notification/basis/5/245/html/245.html Pesticide Residues: With regard to pesticide residue violations, no major trade disruptions were identified in U.S. grapefruit trade to Japan during MY2011/12. Oranges PS&D Table: Oranges, Fresh Japan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 450 599 380 576 560 Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Non-Bearing Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Total No. Of Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Production 5 5 4 5 5 Imports 120 120 120 127 127 Total Supply 125 125 124 132 132 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Fresh Dom. Consumption 125 125 124 132 132 For Processing 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 125 125 124 132 132 * Area measured in hectares # Production, Imports, Exports, and Consumption measured in thousands of metric tons Production Japan produces a small amount of navel oranges. As a result, the latest available year of official statistics is MY2008/09. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF), in MY 2008/09 the Japanese harvest area for navel oranges was 590 hectares with a total production of 7,363 metric tons. Japanese farmers are rapidly losing interest in growing navel oranges as their quality and price cannot compete with imports from the United States or Australia. As a result, domestic navel orange production has been declining rapidly each year and continues to decline. F MY2012/13, Post estimates Japanese production of navel oranges will remain at the same level, roughly 5,000 metric tons, and in a slightly smaller area of approximately 560 hectares. Consumption Since 2007, when orange prices peaked and consumption dropped, Japanese orange consumption continues to show slight signs of recovery, climbing back to 2000/01 levels. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), in 2011, Japanese annual consumption of oranges increased slightly from 2010 to 2.03 kilograms per household. It is worth noting, that among the fresh produce consumption categories, orange consumption in Japan is one of the few categories that is going against the overall trend of declining consumption. Some trade sources remark that young Japanese mothers are shifting their preferences from sour grapefruits to sweeter citrus products for their children. Additionally, good crops in both the United States and Australia have been supplying the Japanese market with higher quality and tasty oranges, further encouraging overall Japanese consumption of oranges. As consumer preferences shift towards sweeter citrus fruits, Post expects Japanese orange consumption will continue to recover in the coming years. Trade (Imports) Japan Imports of Fresh Oranges Marketing year: October-September / Quantity in metric tons MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 World 98,700 95,950 103,611 119,652 126,887 United States 74,912 66,358 77,303 81,360 96,683 Market share: 76% 69% 75% 68% 76% Australia 12,618 18,314 17,771 28,822 24,970 South Africa 8,720 7,096 6,894 7,934 4,875 Chile 2,343 4,146 1,558 1,238 101 All other 107 36 85 298 258 Source: Global Trade Atlas Since dipping in 2007, overall Japanese imports of oranges have been rebounding. In MY2011/12, Japanese imports of fresh oranges increased for the fourth consecutive season, to 126,887 metric tons, an increase of 6 percent from last year and the highest level of imports since 2003. Industry sources identify higher quality imports from major orange suppliers, and changes in consumer preferences as the major reasons for the continued recovery of the Japanese fresh orange market. The United States is the largest supplier of fresh oranges to Japan. Countries such as Australia and South Africa are also important players in this market. These other countries export oranges to Japan from July through November, when U.S. orange shipments are relatively low. For MY 2012/13, Post estimates that the level of Japanese imports of fresh oranges will remain steady at around 127,000 metric tons, similar to MY2011/12. In MY2011/12, U.S. supplies of fresh oranges to Japan increased for the third consecutive year to 96,683 metric tons, a 19 percent increase from the previous season and the highest level since 2002. Japanese imports of U.S. fresh oranges were valued at approximately $116 million on a CIF basis. This season, Japanese traders anticipate good sales for California navel oranges. The new navel orange crop arrived in Japan in early November, and the trade volume is expected to increase during the gift giving season. California navel shipments will continue until June. Shipments of California Valencia oranges will likely start from February and end in October. California also supplies minor orange varieties such as Cara Cara and Moro oranges to the Japanese market. Industry sources expect Japanese imports of Cara Cara to continue increasing along with California’s growing production. Traders report that in 2011/12, Japanese Cara Cara imports were up 50 percent from last year to 12,000 cartons (based on a 17-kilogram carton) or 200 MT. The popularity of Cara Cara oranges is increasing among Japanese consumers who prefer sweeter orange varieties, making it an up-and-coming product in Japan. As Cara Cara oranges are packed in a 9-kilogram box, this variety often sells for twice the price of navel oranges. However, sources expect prices on Cara Cara to decrease as the volume of Cara Cara imports continue to increase. In MY2011/12, Japanese imports of Moro oranges recovered by 28 percent from the previous season to 3,750 cartons (based on a 17-kilogram carton) or about 63.5 MT. Despite this increase, supply constraints are expected to limit prospects to limit prospects for major increases in Moro oranges imports. Following record imports in MY2010/11, Japanese imports of Australian oranges fell 13 percent to 24,970 metric tons in MY2011/12. Nonetheless, the volume of Australian imports, valued at $32 million on a CIF basis, remained well above average for a second consecutive season. Australian grower associations have reportedly been actively promoting sales of Australian oranges in Japan. Australian oranges enjoy a good reputation among Japanese traders, and different than other imported oranges, are usually sold in high-end shops at higher prices. In MY2011/12, the average Japanese CIF price for Australian oranges was $1.29 per kilogram, approximately 5 percent lower than the previous season’s CIF price of $1.36 per kilogram. Even with these temporary reductions, average CIF prices for Australian oranges remained 7 percent higher than U.S. orange CIF prices. As a result, Japanese traders expect imports of Australian oranges to slow slightly further in MY2012/13. Supplies of South African oranges to Japan continue to decline. Despite rebounding slightly the previous season, in MY2011/12 Japanese imports of South African oranges dropped by 39 percent to 4,875 metric tons. This was the lowest level of South African orange imports since 1995. The average CIF price for South African oranges was approximately 12 percent cheaper compared to the previous year. Traditionally, South African orange CIF prices are significantly lower than CIF prices of U.S. and Australian oranges. However, Japan is still a small market for South African oranges. They are typically shipped to Japan along with large quantities of South African grapefruit shipments. Consequently, as South African grapefruit shipments to Japan fell in MY2011/12 so did imports of South African oranges. Similarly, in MY2011/12, Japanese imports of Chilean oranges plummeted to their lowest level in 14 years. Japanese traders report that the quality and taste of Chilean oranges do appear not to be well suited for the Japanese consumer taste. Prices: Japan: Fresh Orange Prices - Import, Wholesale, Retail Import CIF Prices Wholesale Prices Retail Prices (US $/KG) (Yen/KG) (Yen/KG) 2011 2011 2011 October $1.21 October ¥154 October ¥371 November $1.20 November ¥160 November ¥369 December $1.34 December ¥184 December ¥385 2012 2012 2012 January $1.22 January ¥187 January ¥381 February $1.11 February ¥174 February ¥376 March $1.13 March ¥172 March ¥357 April $1.21 April ¥175 April ¥382 May $1.27 May ¥181 May ¥371 June $1.24 June ¥179 June ¥347 July $1.27 July ¥170 July ¥373 August $1.23 August ¥157 August ¥350 September $1.14 September ¥152 September ¥354 Source: GTA Source: MAFF Source: MIC * Import prices are average import CIF prices. ** Wholesale prices are average wholesale prices at the major wholesale markets. (Seikabutsu Ryutsu Tokei) *** Retail prices are average retail prices in the Metro Tokyo area. Policy: The Japan-Mexico Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA): The Japan/Mexico EPA has been in effect since April 1, 2005. Under this agreement, various Mexican agricultural products, including fresh oranges, enter Japan at a reduced import duty. In MY2011/12, Japan and Mexico renegotiated tariff concessions granted under the EPA. In the case of Mexican oranges, Japan increased the in-quota volume and extended tariff reductions to Mexico’s seasonal preferential tariff-quota. Since April 2012, in-quota imports of Mexican oranges (up to 4,100 metric tons) enjoy a tariff of 7.4 percent when shipped from June 1 -November 30, and a tariff of 14.8 percent if shipped during December 1 – May 31. In-quota tariffs are scheduled to lower gradually until 2016 to 5.0 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Out-of-quota imports of Mexican oranges face Japan’s WTO Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff rate. In MY2011/12, there were no Japanese imports of Mexican fresh oranges. The majority of Mexican orange exports are traditionally shipped to nearby markets. The Japan-Mexico EPA agreement can be found at the following website: http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/latin/mexico/agreement/index.html Import Duties: Japan: Import Duties 2012 Tariff Code (HS) Description Duty Rate (%)* Fresh oranges, imports during December 1 - May 31 32% 0805.10-000 Fresh oranges, imports during June1 - November 30 16% Source: Customs Tariff Scedules of Japan 2012 * all duties are charged on a CIF basis Policy Issues Affecting U.S. Orange Exports: With regard to pesticide residue violations or plant quarantine issues, no major trade disruptions were identified in U.S. orange trade to Japan in MY2011/12. Orange Juice PS&D Table (Orange Juice) Orange Juice Japan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Deliv. To Processors 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 2,000 2,000 14,000 14,000 20,000 Production 0 0 0 Imports 87,141 87,141 75,000 81,550 75,000 Total Supply 89,141 89,141 89,000 95,550 95,000 Exports 0 0 0 Domestic Consumption 75,141 75,141 76,000 75,550 76,000 Ending Stocks 14,000 14,000 13,000 20,000 19,000 Total Distribution 89,141 89,141 89,000 95,550 95,000 * Production, Consumption, and Stocks measured in metric tons at a 65 Brix equivalent. Production Japanese production of orange juice is small. Japan produces a small amount of oranges (approximately 4,500 metric tons annually), the majority of which are sold fresh. Consumption According to the latest data available from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), the 2011 Japanese household expenditures on fruit/vegetable juice decreased marginally to 8,465 yen ($109) from last year. While Japanese beverage production increased approximately 6 percent in 2011, the manufacturing of 100-percent orange juice beverages decreased 2 percent from the previous year. Industry sources remark that higher prices on Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) are increasing the cost of manufacturing 100-percent orange juice compared to other juice-containing beverages, and hence discouraging FCOJ demand. They also state that Japanese preferences towards vegetable juices, particularly tomato juice, as well as, “zero-calories” and “no sugar” drinks have been increasing in recent. Correspondingly, Post does not expect any major increases in Japanese consumption of orange juice in the near term. Trade (Imports) Japan: Imports of orange juice Marketing year: October-September / Quantity in metric tons (at 65 Brix) MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 World 68,726 75,347 64,198 87,141 81,550 United States 2,600 2,776 2,810 1,579 485 Market share: 4% 4% 4% 2% 1% Brazil 59,377 61,290 52,412 73,716 70,376 Mexico 3,082 5,821 4,774 4,635 3,807 Belize 492 1,561 1,843 3,438 2,562 Israel 1,324 1,767 846 1,673 1,838 Italy 682 908 456 653 612 Costa Rica 79 41 138 432 827 Spain 212 326 357 341 483 Australia 514 272 246 246 212 All other 364 585 316 428 348 Source: Global Trade Atlas * Imports of orange juice are the sum of imports for HS codes; 2009.11, 2009.12, and 2009.19. ** Global Trade Atlas provides Japanese import statistics for orange juice in kiloliters only. Hence, the following factors are used to convert from kiloliters to metric tons at a 65 Brix equivalent: For concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) 2009.11-290 (frozen) and 2009.19-290 (non frozen), kiloliter is multiplied by 1.3154 to get metric ton, and for single strength orange juice 2009.11-210 (frozen), 2009.12-110(non frozen), and 2009.12-210 (non-frozen), kiloliter is multiplied by 0.1897 to get metric ton at a 65 Brix equivalent. In MY2011/12, Japanese total imports of orange juice decreased 6 percent from the previous season to 81,550 metric tons on a 65 Brix equivalent. Traditionally, Brazil has been the largest supplier of orange juice to Japan, supplying over 80 percent of Japan’s total imports. In MY2011/12, Japanese imports of Brazilian orange juice dropped 4 percent from the previous season but remained above average at 70,376 metric tons. A large amount of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) is shipped to Japan from Brazil via chartered vessel (a tanker) on an irregular basis. Hence, one charter vessel shipment can increase Japanese imports of FCOJ by as much as 10,000 to 13,000 metric tons. In MY 2011/12, Japanese imports of U.S. orange juice tumbled by 69 percent to 485 metric tons on a 65 Brix equivalent, the lowest level on record. Correspondingly, the U.S. share of the Japanese orange juice market decreased to 1 percent. As Japanese traders were able to increase orange juice imports from other suppliers, demand for U.S. orange juice declined. Traders also report that supplies of Florida orange juice have declined significantly since devastating hurricanes hit Florida back in 2004 and 2005. In addition, U.S. orange juice prices are relatively high compared to prices of orange juice from other suppliers. In MY 2011/12, Japanese import of Mexican FCOJ slowed for the third consecutive year to 3,807 metric tons on a 65 Brix equivalent, an 18 percent decrease from the previous season. Nonetheless, Japanese imports of Mexican orange juice have doubled since the implementation of the Mexico-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) in 2005. Under the EPA, Mexico continues to have a great advantage over other FCOJ suppliers shipping to Japan. For example in 2012, imports of FCOJ from Mexico (up to 6,360 metric tons) faced a duty of 11.4 percent, while imports of FCOJ from other sources, including the United States, faced Japan’s WTO Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) duty rate of 25.5 percent (see policy section.) High world orange juice prices are expected to continue due to low Brazilian FCOJ stocks, and increasing demand from developing Asian countries and Russia. As a result, for MY2012/13, Post forecasts Japanese world imports of orange juice will return to MY2008/09 levels of 75,000 metric tons on a 65 Brix equivalent. Prices (Orange Juice) Japan: Average import price of FCOJ (HS code: 2009.11-290) Marketing year: October-September Price in U.S. Dollar (CIF) per kilogram at a 65 Brix equivalent MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 United States 3.02 2.36 1.91 2.76 3.56 Brazil 2.10 1.83 1.63 2.52 2.75 Mexico 2.62 1.96 1.76 2.78 2.98 Source: Global Trade Atlas In MY 2011/12, Japanese CIF prices for FCOJ increased approximately 69 to 86 percent from the previous season. Industry sources report that the CIF price hike was due largely to the world’s low FCOJ stocks, resulting from shorter supplies from the United States and Brazil. Japanese wholesale prices for FCOJ were marginally up from previous year due to higher import prices. The current FCOJ wholesale prices are around 350-500 yen ($4.51-$6.44) per kilogram.* Japanese beverage manufacturers speculate that higher wholesale prices will further discourage production of 100-percent orange juice drinks as the manufacturing of mixed-juice products becomes more profitable. * The exchange rate of 79.49 yen per dollar is based on the Nikkei News quote for November, 2011. Policy Japan-Mexico Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA): The Japan/Mexico EPA has been in effect since April 2005. Under this agreement, various agricultural products, including orange juice, enter Japan at a reduced import duty. Regarding orange juice specifically, Japan granted Mexico preferential tariff-quotas on all orange juice line items and slashed duties by half. In the case of concentrated orange juice, Mexico has enjoyed a preferential tariff-quota since the first year of the EPA’s implementation. In MY2011/12, Japan and Mexico renegotiated tariff concessions granted under the EPA. Since then, Japan extended the quota provisions and accelerated tariff reductions for Mexican orange juice. Hence, as of April 2012, in-quota imports of Mexican FCOJ (up to 6,360 metric tons) enjoy a tariff rate of 11.4 percent. Out-of-quota imports of Mexican orange juice face Japan’s WTO Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) rate of 25.5 percent. The quota is scheduled to expand annually until 2016 to 7,000 metric tons. For single-strength orange juice, in-quota imports (up to 2,200 metric tons on a 65 Brix equivalent) face a tariff of 9.5 percent. Out-of-quota imports of Mexican single strength orange juice face Japan’s MFN rate of 21.3 percent. This quota will expand annually until 2016 to 5,000 metric tons and the in-quota tariff will lower to 5.3 percent. Since the EPA’s implementation, imports of Mexican orange juice have not exceeded the quota level. Tariff concessions under the Japan-Mexico EPA agreement can be found at the following website: http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/latin/mexico/agreement/index.html Import Duties (Orange Juice): Japan: Import Duties 2012 Tariff Code cription Duty Rate (%)* (HS Des) 2009.11- Orange juice, frozen, containing added sugar, not more than 10% by 25.5% 110 weight of sucrose, naturally and artificially contained 2009.11- O 29.8% or 23 yen/kg, range juice, frozen, containing added sugar, other 190 whichever is the greater 2009.11- Orange juice, frozen, not containing added sugar, not more than 10% 210 by wei 21.3% ght of sucrose 2009.11- Orange juice, frozen, not containing added sugar, other 25.5% 290 Orange juice, not frozen, of a Brix value not exceeding 20, containing 2009.12- added sugar, not more than 10% by weight of sucrose, naturally and 25.5% 110 artificially contained 2009.12- Orange juice, not frozen, of a Brix value not exceeding 20, containing 29.8% or 23 yen/kg, 190 added sugar, other whichever is the greater 2009.12- Orange juice, not frozen, of a Brix value not exceeding 20, not 210 containing added sugar, not more than 10% 21.3% by weight of sucrose 2009.12- Orange juice, not frozen, of a Brix value not exceeding 20, not 25.5% 290 containing added sugar, other 2009.19- Orange juice, other, containing added sugar, not more than 10% by 25.5% 110 weight of sucrose, naturally and artificially contained 2009.19- O 29.8% or 23 yen/kg, range juice, other, containing added sugar, other 190 whichever is the greater 2009.19- Orange juice, other, not containing added sugar, not more than 10% 21.3% 210 by weight of sucrose 2009.19- 25.5% 290 Orange juice, other, not containing added sugar, other Source: Customs Tariff Schedules of Japan 2012 * all duties are charged on a CIF basis Lemons PS&D table: Lemons/Limes, Fresh Japan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 Area Harvested 510 477 540 487 492 Bearing Trees 0 0 0 Non-Bearing Trees 0 0 0 Total No. Of Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Production 7 10 8 13 15 Imports 57 57 50 55 55 Total Supply 64 67 58 68 70 Exports 0 0 0 Fresh Dom. Consumption 62 64 56 65 66 For Processing 2 3 2 3 4 Total Distribution 64 67 58 68 70 * Area measured in hectares # Production, Imports, Exports, and Consumption measured in thousands of metric tons Production Unlike other fruit harvesting areas in Japan, area harvested for Japanese lemons has been growing steadily over the last decade. As demand for domestic lemons increases, Japanese growers are responding to consumer preference for local produce. Post estimates that in MY2012/13 the Japanese lemon harvest area will increase slightly to 492 hectares. Using the latest available official data (2008) and a moving five-year average, Post anticipates the Japanese production of lemons will continue on a general upward-trend and reach another record at 15,000 metric tons in MY2012/13. Between 2001 and 2006, Japanese lemon production held steady at an average 4,555 metric tons. Since then and despite some slower years, domestic production continues to increase annually. Consumption As fresh lemons are largely consumed by the food service sector as garnish, overall Japanese consumption of lemons remains relatively stable. While Japanese hotels and restaurants have been trying to cut costs by reducing the purchasing volume of their food inputs, this has not impacted fresh lemons purchases as these are considered essential food ingredients. Per-household consumption data for lemons is not available. The market share for domestic lemons is expected to increase marginally from the previous season to 19 percent, the highest level so far. Seeking to increase sales, recently domestic lemon producers have been aggressively targeting more cautious-consumers by advertising their produce as free from food additives. The Japanese Government classifies agrochemicals used post harvest as food additives. In addition, treated produce must bear a label listing the agrochemicals used at the point of sale. While other citrus imports are also treated and labeled, the label is unlikely to be a deterrent to sales. However, lemon skin is often eaten, and hence consumers may grow more cautious about purchasing imported lemons as a result of this advertising campaign. Trade (Imports) Japan: Imports of fresh lemon Marketing year: October-September / Quantity in metric tons MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 World 61,887 51,671 53,129 57,303 55,076 United States 37,439 35,613 35,917 35,634 34,854 Market share: 60% 69% 68% 62% 63% Chile 18,359 11,649 13,981 16,216 15,295 Mexico* 2,076 1,911 1,984 4,036 3,583 New Zealand 1,196 858 711 1,024 767 South Africa 2,591 1,335 424 393 506 Australia 176 293 113 0 68 All other 50 12 0 0 3 Source: Global Trade Atlas *:Mexico includes both lemons and limes Consistent with the increase in domestic supplies and steady consumption, in MY2011/12 Japanese world imports of lemons dropped 4 percent from the previous season to 55,076 metric tons. For MY2012/13 Post expects the domestic situation to continue and estimates total Japanese imports of fresh lemons to hold steady at 55,000 metric tons. The United States supplies fresh lemons to the Japanese market all year round, providing on average 66 percent of Japan’s total imports. In MY2011/12, imports of U.S. lemons were 34,854 metric tons, slightly less than the previous year and valued at $52 million on a CIF basis. Among Japanese traders, U.S. fresh lemons enjoy a good reputation and are considered a high quality fruit. Post anticipates U.S. lemon sales to Japan to continue at last season’s level. Chile plays a major role in the Japanese summer fresh lemon market, supplying 28 percent of Japan’s total fresh lemon imports. Chile’s new lemon crop comes to Japan from June through October. Traders reportedly favor Chilean lemons because of the lower price and longer shelf-life. Therefore, lemon shipments from the U.S. slow during the summer months. In MY2011/12, Chilean lemon supplies to Japan, valued at $16 million on a CIF basis, slowed by 6 percent to 15,295 metric tons but remained within average. In MY 2011/12, Japanese imports of Mexican lemons (HS code 080550, fresh lemons and limes combined) decreased 11 percent from the previous season’s record to 3,583 metric tons. Until MY2009/10, Mexican supplies under HS code 080550 consisted primarily of fresh limes. However, industry sources report that, following the purchase of lemon groves in Mexico by an American company during MY2010/11, Mexico began supplying fresh lemons to the Japanese market (about 1,565 metric tons in MY2011/12, compared to 2,199 metric tons in the previous season). Japanese traders report that the quality of Mexican lemons is fairly good. Quality-wise, Japanese buyers indicate that it is difficult to differentiate between Mexican and Californian lemons. Given the competitiveness of Mexican lemon prices, Post anticipates shipments of Mexican lemons to Japan will continue and likely expand. Meanwhile, imports of Mexican fresh limes recovered to 2,018 metric tons from the previous season. Prices: Japan: Fresh Lemon Prices - Import, Wholesale, Retail Import CIF Prices Wholesale Prices Retail Prices (US $/KG) (Yen/KG) (Yen/KG) 2011 2011 2011 October $1.26 October ¥162 October ¥540 November $1.45 November ¥163 November ¥550 December $1.48 December ¥182 December ¥514 2012 2012 2012 January $1.52 January ¥189 January ¥521 February $1.44 February ¥179 February ¥535 March $1.25 March ¥168 March ¥522 April $1.28 April ¥169 April ¥505 May $1.58 May ¥206 May ¥493 June $1.64 June ¥215 June ¥486 July $1.24 July ¥203 July ¥512 August $1.13 August ¥191 August ¥546 September $1.12 September ¥174 September ¥533 Source: GTA Source: MAFF Source: MIC * Import prices are average import CIF prices. (HS0805.50-010) ** Wholesale prices are average wholesale prices at the major wholesale markets. (Seikabutsu Ryutsu Tokei) *** Retail prices are average retail prices in the Metro Tokyo area. Policy As for pesticide residue violations and plant quarantine issues, during this reporting period no major trade disruptions were identified in U.S. lemon trade to Japan. Import Duties: Japan: Import Duties 2012 D n Tariff Code (HS) Descriptio uty Rate (%)* 0805.50-010 Fresh Lemon Free Source: Customs Tariff Schedules of Japan 2012 * all duties are charged on a CIF basis
Posted: 30 December 2012

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