Livestock and Products Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Animal Husbandry and Support Services in Japan

Posted on: 21 Oct 2012

Japan’s 2013 beef market is projected to grow modestly assuming limited market access under the Export Verification program continues.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 10/2/2012 GAIN Report Number: JA2023 Japan Livestock and Products Annual 2012 Beef and Pork Market Situation Update and 2013 Outlook Approved By: Benjamin Petlock, Agricultural Attaché Prepared By: Kakuyu Obara, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Japan’s 2013 beef market is projected to grow modestly assuming limited market access under the Export Verification program continues. Increased imports are anticipated to offset a decline in national beef output. A proposed relaxation of Japan’s import requirements will likely increase market access for American beef. However, high U.S. beef prices, due to the combination of historically low cattle numbers and soaring feed grain prices may limit potential increases in quantities demanded by Japan for import. Growth in Japan’s 2013 pork market is projected to be slow due to an anticipated contraction in total supply and weak demand. Due to the weak market, competition between lower priced domestic pork and imported chilled pork is expected to intensify, especially for retail sales. Meanwhile, imports of inexpensive frozen pork for processing use may be limited due to Japan’s Customs enhanced inspection for import duty evasion under the gate price system. Executive Summary In projecting the 2013 outlook, Post assumed that Japan’s EV program will continue to limit American beef access to only animals aged 20 months or below. The combination of the historically low number of U.S. cattle and soaring grain prices (especially corn) that were caused by the severe 2012 drought in the United States, now appear to be affecting the prospects for Japan’s 2013 beef import outlook. Surging U.S. beef prices in 2012 may carry into next year, effectively limiting Japan’s prospective imports in 2013 resulting in a stable level of Japan’s overall beef consumption. Although, Japan’s pork market enjoyed a high level of imports and consumption in the past, this may no longer be the case. Japan’s pork sales, especially in the retail and the food service, have stalled this year due a large (and thereby cost-competitive) surplus poultry meat. Pork sales are now expected to adjust downward slightly in 2013 in response to low market prices and weakening demand and Post projects weak growth in Japan’s pork market in 2013. At the same time, it is expected that Japan’s high dependence on imported grains will raise prices of livestock feeds for the forecast year. This sets a rather difficult tone for 2013 for Japanese livestock producers’ market outlook for their already relatively expensive domestic beef, especially for cuts from high-grade Wagyu carcasses. In early September 2012, Japan’s Food Safety Commission (FSC) concluded its review of the domestic BSE border measures. The FSC advised that the BSE risk for U.S. and Canadian beef imports is negligible to human health even if the age restriction threshold were to be increased to 30 months or younger. The FSC recommendation is now in the public comment period until October 10th. No final date for revision of Japan’s import restrictions for beef has been announced. Japanese import growth scenarios specific to American beef depend on its price outlook in 2013, which is generally expected to be higher than 2012. Commodities: Animal Numbers, Cattle Animal Numbers, Swine Meat, Beef and Veal Meat, Swine Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: PS&D Tables Cattle PS&D Table Animal Numbers, Cattle Japan 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Total Cattle Beg. Stks 4,230 4,230 4,170 4,172 4,110 Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks 805 805 800 813 810 Beef Cows Beg. Stocks 668 668 660 648 645 Production (Calf Crop) 1,340 1,298 1,330 1,290 1,285 Total Imports 12 12 13 13 15 Total Supply 5,582 5,540 5,513 5,475 5,410 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Cow Slaughter 531 528 530 530 520 Calf Slaughter 8 8 10 10 10 Other Slaughter 640 638 635 645 625 Total Slaughter 1,179 1,174 1,175 1,185 1,155 Loss 233 194 228 180 195 Ending Inventories 4,170 4,172 4,110 4,110 4,060 Total Distribution 5,582 5,540 5,513 5,475 5,410 1000 HEAD, PERCENT Beef PS&D Table Meat, Beef and Veal Japan 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Slaughter (Reference) 1,179 1,174 1,175 1,185 1,155 Beginning Stocks 129 129 136 136 141 Production 501 501 500 508 495 Total Imports 745 745 756 746 760 Total Supply 1,375 1,375 1,392 1,390 1,396 Total Exports 1 0 1 1 1 Human Dom. Consumption 1,238 1,239 1,256 1,248 1,258 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 1,238 1,239 1,256 1,248 1,258 Ending Stocks 136 136 135 141 137 Total Distribution 1,375 1,375 1,392 1,390 1,396 1000 HEAD, 1000 MT CWE, PERCENT Swine PS&D Table Animal Numbers, Swine Japan 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Total Beginning Stocks 9,768 9,768 9,730 9,735 9,700 Sow Beginning Stocks 901 902 910 900 895 Production (Pig Crop) 17,000 17,000 17,200 17,000 16,890 Total Imports 1 1 1 1 1 Total Supply 26,769 26,769 26,931 26,736 26,591 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Sow Slaughter 0 0 0 0 0 Other Slaughter 16,388 16,388 16,500 16,470 16,400 Total Slaughter 16,388 16,388 16,500 16,470 16,400 Loss 651 646 651 566 571 Ending Inventories 9,730 9,735 9,780 9,700 9,620 Total Distribution 26,769 26,769 26,931 26,736 26,591 1000 HEAD, PERCENT Pork PS&D Table Meat, Swine Japan 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Slaughter (Reference) 16,388 16,388 16,500 16,470 16,400 Beginning Stocks 218 218 216 216 217 Production 1,267 1,267 1,275 1,275 1,270 Total Imports 1,254 1,254 1,250 1,228 1,208 Total Supply 2,739 2,739 2,741 2,719 2,695 Total Exports 1 1 1 1 1 Human Dom. Consumption 2,522 2,522 2,528 2,501 2,484 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 2,522 2,522 2,528 2,501 2,484 Ending Stocks 216 216 212 217 210 Total Distribution 2,739 2,739 2,741 2,719 2,695 1000 HEAD, 1000 MT CWE, PERCENT Author Defined Preface This report updates JA1008 Japan Livestock and Products semi-annual, dated April 10, 2012. In updating the demand and supply outlook and forecast numbers for CY 2012, Post applied the following assumptions: - No changes to Japan’s Export Verification (EV) Program for U.S. beef, thus continued limited market access during CY 2012 - Continued lack of income growth, thus average consumers will remain price conscious Quantities listed in the text are made on the basis of Carcass Weight Equivalent – CWE (unless specified otherwise). Some numbers in the tables are on a product weight basis and have not been converted to CWE. Rates of conversion from product weight to CWE are: Beef Cuts (Boneless) – 1.40 Pork Cuts (Boneless) – 1.30 Processed/Prepared Beef Products – 1.79 Processed/Prepared Pork Products – 1.30 All supplemental tables provided in the report are provided for the reader’s own analysis. 2013 Beef Market Outlook Total Consumption and Imports to Increase Slightly in 2013 For 2013, Post expects Japanese consumers to continue to be low-price seeking and value-conscious. Overall market demand for expensive domestic beef will most likely remain lethargic. However, Japan’s demand for imported beef, especially for American beef (value cuts such as plate, chuck, and clod) will remain solid if U.S. price offers remain at stable levels through the year. High prices for American Beef May Trim Japan’s Prospective Import Demand in 2013 Recently, prices for high-demand American beef cuts have been rising in Japan. Additionally, the preliminary price outlook for American beef in 2013 is expected to remain high, reflecting historically small U.S. beef cattle inventories and the impact of the severe drought on feed grain prices. Any significant rise in U.S. offers in 2013 could effectively weaken the competitive edge that American beef has demonstrated against Australian beef over the past several years. On a preliminary basis, Post projects stable growth for the Japanese beef market in 2013 with total consumption likely to grow by one percent to 1.258 million MT, and total imports to rise by two percent to 760,000 MT. Increased imports should fill a supply gap that is expected to occur due to an anticipated decline in domestic beef output, projected to be down by three percent to 495,000 MT. Breakdowns for 2013 imports are; for beef cuts, up by two percent at 742,000 MT, and unchanged for prepared/processed beef products at 18,000 MT. Post’s import projection for beef cuts by country are: up five percent to 182,000 MT for American beef, down two percent for Australian beef at 448,000 MT, with market shares for both countries at 26 percent and 42 percent respectively. For this projected level of beef cut imports, the beef safeguard is not expected to be triggered in 2013. (See table 3) Japan’s National Beef Output Forecast to Fall in 2013 Japan’s total 2013 domestic slaughter and national beef output is projected to decline by three percent from the previous year to 1,155 million head (or 495,000 MT). This drop has been indicated by reduced numbers of Wagyu, Holstein and F1 calf crops from 2010/2011 that are expected to reach their finishing ages in 2013. A seven percent drop in 2011 Wagyu calf inventory suggests a possible liquidation of stocks by Wagyu breeders in the wake of the uncertainties in cattle futures that occurred during that time (including Foot and Mouth Disease [FMD] outbreaks in 2010, a food poisoning incident in 2011, and plummeting market prices caused by radiation contamination from the Fukushima nuclear plant accident in March 2011). (See JA 1008 Livestock and Products Semi-annual dated April 10, 2012) Consecutive declines in 2010-2011 of dairy cow beginning stocks have also resulted in lower dairy calf crops (including cross F1 calves). 2013 Pork Market Outlook Competition between Low-Priced Domestic Pork and Imported Chilled Pork to Intensify in 2013 Although overall market demand for pork has been at a high level over the past few years, Japanese pork consumption started to trend moderately downward in 2012 which may continue into 2013. Despite this, imported chilled pork, which is mainly supplied by the United States and Canada, is expected to sustain its 2012 level, as long as its competitive price advantage over domestic pork prevails. A recovery in 2012 in Japan’s total hog slaughter and national output has put more competitively priced fresh/chilled domestic cuts into retail distribution, and this trend is expected to continue into 2013. As noted above in Executive Summary section, if Japan decides to relax its domestic BSE border measures, including those for imports, it may prompt Japanese retailers, who were compelled to feature more pork and Australian beef in their store shelves after 2003, to switch back to competitively priced American beef cuts. For example, American sliced short plate pack used to be the most popular barbecue meat with Japanese consumers. This may have an impact on the 2013 pork market outlook as well, especially for retail sales of domestic pork and imported chilled cuts. In 2013, imports of frozen pork for processing use will continue to be subject to enhanced monitoring and inspection to enforce Japan’s pork differential duty system – the so-called Gate Price System. This increased focus in inspections may lead to an exit of brokers, which in turn may reduce speculative imports of cheap frozen cuts which have kept year ending stocks somewhat high in the past. For 2013, Post projects total consumption in Japan’s pork market to decline by one percent to 2.484 million MT, and total imports to contract by two percent to 1.208 million MT, due mainly to an anticipated reduction in frozen pork imports. Therefore, year ending stocks are adjusted three percent lower compared with the year beginning level and is now estimated at 210,000 MT. Breakdowns for 2013 imports are: for pork cuts, down by two percent at 974,000 MT, and down by three percent for prepared/processed beef products at 234,000 MT. Post’s import projections for pork cuts by country are: the United States, down by two percent to 410,000 MT, Canada, unchanged at 208,000 MT with each country’s respective share at 42 percent and 21 percent. Combined total imports of frozen cuts from Denmark/EU countries are projected to be somewhat lower than 2012. The United States and Canada should hold the majority share of Japan’s imports of seasoned ground pork (in the prepared and processed products category). At these projected levels of pork cut imports and stocks, the pork safeguard is not expected to be triggered in 2013 (See Table 3). Slight Fall Projected for Japan’s National Pork Output in 2013 Constrained by low market prices, increased competition with imported chilled pork, and higher feed costs, Japan’s total 2013 domestic slaughter and national pork output are projected down by less than one percent to 16.4 million head (or 1.27 million MT). In light of the above, year-beginning total domestic sow numbers are projected to decline, reflecting an anticipated liquidation of some sow stocks (See Table 9). Brazil May Become a Frozen Pork Supplier in 2013 In August 2012, Japan classified the South Catarina (SC) state in Brazil as a FMD vaccination free region, potentially allowing Brazil to begin supplying frozen raw material pork. An animal health protocol and certification requirements are currently being negotiated, and if these are concluded by 2013, the SC state could begin exporting in the same year. Initial trade volume from SC is expected to be small, and Brazil will likely be competing for a portion of the market that is currently held by Mexico and Chile (approximately nine percent in total pork imports in 2011) (See Table 8-A). 2012 Revised Market Outlook Based on recently publicized preliminary 2012 data, Post had made adjustments to the 2012 PS&D numbers to this year’s semi-annual beef and pork forecast (JA 1008 dated April 10, 2012). Overall 2012 Market Situation Summary Surplus Supplies of Broiler Meat to Cap Beef and Pork Consumption Growth in 2012 Although not previously anticipated (See JA 2022 Japan Poultry and Products Annual dated September 1, 2012), a surplus in Japanese broiler meat helped limit overall 2012 beef and pork consumption growth. In the first half of 2012, abundant stocks of low-priced domestic chicken meat reportedly displaced retail purchases of both beef and pork (for table consumption). This effect can be seen in Japan’s average household meat and poultry consumption data for the first half of 2012, where sales of fresh/chilled beef and pork showed almost no growth compared to the same period last year, while a significant 14 percent increase for sales of chicken meat occurred during this time (see Table 1). In the same period, wholesale market prices for domestic beef and pork slumped, suggesting weak demand for comparably high priced domestic meat. High stocks of chicken have also slowed imported chilled meat, but not to the same extent as domestic fresh/chilled beef and pork. (See Tables 4-A, 4-B, 5-A, 5-B and 5-C) The current recovery in monthly wholesale prices for domestic beef seems to indicate that the public concern regarding last year’s cesium contamination may be diminishing. Sales may pick up at the end of the year, a peak demand season for domestic beef, supported by increased supply and lower than average market prices that are anticipated to last through the end of this year. During the first half of 2012, Japan’s food service sector (including take-out and ready-to-eat meal segments) also increased its use of low-priced (mostly imported) broiler meat at the expense of beef and pork cuts/products. A popular on-going food service strategy is to take advantage of the increased availability of low priced broiler meat, regardless of its origin, and to increase sales through special sales campaigns. For example, a major hamburger chain has been promoting chicken burger dishes, reportedly affecting the sales of its regular hamburger menu items. Trade sources are not overly optimistic about a quick turnaround for beef and pork consumption growth for the remainder of 2012. 2012 Beef Market Outlook (Revised) Slight Growth in Total Beef Consumption Projected in 2012 In light of the above, Post has revised its 2012 beef market outlook for Japan, with total consumption now expected to grow by less than one percent to 1.248 million MT, partially absorbing an anticipated recovery in national output. Total imports are expected to remain at the previous year’s level at 746,000 MT. Breakdowns are: for beef cuts, up by one percent to 728,000 MT, for prepared/processed beef products, down by 17 percent to 18,000 MT. Based on first half 2012 sales, American beef is expected to continue to displace Australian beef this year. Year-to-date Australian beef export data (Jan – July, 2012) indicate a significant drop in exports of frozen short fed cuts (down 25 percent) and some chilled grass fed cuts (down 10 percent), largely due to a market preference for American fed beef (see Table 2, 7-A, 7-B, 7-C and 7-D). Japan’s Demand for American Beef in 2012 to Remain Stable Trade sources confirm that the growing popularity of American beef is not just limited to relatively lower value cuts, such as chuck, clod and plate (mainly for barbecue beef bowls), but also high value loins, which cater to more upscale hotels/restaurants. Post’s newly revised 2012 import projections by country are: for beef cuts, a 10 percent increase for American beef at 186,000 MT and a four percent decrease for Australian beef at 455,000 MT, with each country’s respective share at 26 percent (up three points from the previous year) and 60 percent (down three points from the previous year). However, the severe drought in the United States and high grain prices have prompted concerns in the Japanese meat trade industry about the potential for an increase in price and/or a decline in quality for American beef. Slight Recovery of Japan’s National Beef Output Forecast in 2012 Japan’s total domestic beef cattle slaughter and national output showed a modest recovery in the first half of 2012. On an annualized basis, Post projects total slaughter to rise by one percent at 1.185 million head (or 508,000 MT) based on the number of calves born in 2010/2011 that are reaching their finishing age this year. Increased slaughter of Wagyu will likely offset reduced slaughter of dairy breeds (Holstein and F-1 cross breeds). [Note: Average finishing age of beef cattle in Japan are: Wagyu steers /heifers (around 30 months), Holstein steers (around 20 months), F-1 cross bred steers and heifers (around 24 months)] 2012 Pork Market Outlook (Revised) Total Pork Consumption to Slip Slightly in 2012 Post also revised Japan’s 2012 pork market outlook with total consumption expected to slip one percent to 2.501 million MT, and total imports to decline by two percent to 1.228 million MT. Breakdowns are: for pork cuts, down four percent to 987,000 MT, for prepared/processed products, up by eight percent to 241,000 MT. Increased Supply of Low-Priced Domestic Cuts May Limit Demand for Chilled Pork in 2012 Due to its affordable price and high quality, American chilled cuts have become the preferred choice for Japan’s national and regional retail chains, as well as some specialty food service companies. In the first half of 2012, Japan’s imports of U.S. chilled pork were up one percent over the same period last year, reflecting stable retail and food service demand. Canadian chilled cuts sustained nine percent growth as well (see Table 8-B). To counter the popularity of imports, a seasonal hike in the monthly slaughter of domestic hogs, which usually occurs during the second half of the year (typically starting in the summer), is expected to keep the price of domestic fresh/chilled pork cuts lower than average and may slow sales of imported chilled cuts in Japan. Japanese Customs Inspection May Hinder Raw Material Frozen Pork Imports in 2012 Average household purchase data for the first half of 2012 indicate modest growth in Japan’s retail sales of processed pork products (ham, sausage and bacon), suggesting solid demand for cheap frozen imports (see Table 1). At this time, Japan’s Customs investigation on import duty evasion and the resulting increase in inspections of pork shipments, which started this springtime, have caused some uncertainty in this year’s outlook for frozen imports. Customs clearances of frozen pork shipments at various ports were reportedly slow in May and June (see note at the bottom of this section). In the first half of 2012, Japan’s imports of frozen pork from all sources fell six percent compared to the same period last year, with the United States (down one percent), Canada (down nice percent) and Denmark (down 12 percent) (see Table 8-C). The above challenges to cheap cuts seem to have been offset by increased imports of prepared/processed pork products, which were up 11 percent in the first half of 2012. This could suggest a shift to seasoned ground pork products (for sausage manufacturing) mainly supplied by the United States (up 10 percent) and Canada (up six percent). Due to ample stocks, there have been no concerns about supply shortages of frozen raw pork at this time. June’s ending frozen stock, which was estimated at 219,436 MT, was still slightly higher compared to this year’s beginning level (see Table 6-B). An overall slowdown in consumption forecast for this year should also leave sizable stocks, which are projected nearly unchanged from the year’s beginning level at 217,000 MT (roughly equal to three or four months’ worth of Japan’s annual processing demand for pork). Post’s newly revised 2012 import projections by country are: for pork cuts (chilled and frozen combined), down one percent for the United States at 416,000 MT, down eight percent for Denmark at 150,000 MT, and down eight percent for Canada at 208,000 MT, with each country’s respective shares at 42 percent, 15 percent, and 21 percent. Note: Readers may note that, unlike beef which is under a simple ad-valorem duty system (38.5 percent levied on the C&F import value), Japan’s pork import regime has been operating under a complex differential duty system, known as the “Gate Price System.” Detailed information on the Gate Price System can be found in the USDA Economic Research Service Publication, “Pork Policies in Japan, March 2003.” The gate price is a minimum import price system currently set at JP 525 yen per kilogram of pork cuts. http://webarchives.cdlib.org/sw1tx36512/http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/mar03/ldpm10501/l dpm10501.pdf Under this system, Japanese meat importers are required to pay a calculated difference when their declared import value for a shipment is below the gate price level. In addition, importers are also required to pay a 4.3 percent duty levied on the gate price level. When its declared value is equal to or above the gate price level, importers are required to pay only the 4.3 percent duty portion. Therefore, the lower the actual import value is, the differential duty to be paid to Customs becomes larger. This generally makes it very difficult to import cheap frozen cuts. Japan’s customs authority requires importers to comply with the differential duty system and occasionally has called for stricter compliance with the system in the wake of repeated duty evasion cases. These cases include instances of falsified import value declarations (declaring the import value equal to the gate price level) to avoid paying any differential duty on imports of inexpensive frozen cuts. Earlier this year, the Tokyo prosecutor’s office uncovered a scandal involving a well-known broker in Japan’s pork business community. The company and its associates (numerous small brokers, including paper companies) had allegedly evaded JP 13 billion Yen worth of differential duty. This case prompted the Customs authority to enhance its inspection and monitoring. [Note: Frozen raw material pork accounts for over 65 percent of Japan’s total imports for pork cuts.] Table 1: Average Monthly Expenditures and Quantities of Selected Commodities Purchased per Household (Two-or-more person households) Unit: JP Yen/Gram Beef Pork Chicken CY 2011 Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Jan. 1,550 -2% 552 -1% 2,072 3% 1,614 5% 1,042 -2% 1,128 -4% Feb. 1,385 2% 515 -4% 1,980 2% 1,533 0% 932 -8% 1,028 -11% Mar. 1,449 -4% 566 -3% 2,097 4% 1,643 5% 1,018 -2% 1,148 -2% Apr. 1,529 5% 566 1% 2,025 5% 1,521 1% 970 -5% 986 -14% May 1,572 0% 581 0% 2,004 1% 1,523 1% 1,039 2% 1,086 -4% Jun. 1,478 10% 570 9% 1,963 5% 1,482 3% 993 5% 1,022 -6% July 1,370 -9% 503 -9% 1,992 4% 1,515 5% 980 9% 1,057 4% Aug. 1,486 -7% 531 -10% 2,073 6% 1,538 2% 970 11% 1,040 5% Sept. 1,341 -7% 544 -2% 2,000 1% 1,549 1% 1,062 8% 1,149 3% Oct. 1,452 -5% 544 1% 2,136 1% 1,682 2% 1,154 5% 1,269 4% Nov. 1,431 -5% 557 -3% 2,151 3% 1,670 4% 1,147 7% 1,241 7% Dec. 2,554 1% 753 -4% 2,247 2% 1,719 3% 1,495 10% 1,557 13% CY 2010 18,965 6,933 23,959 18,501 12,387 13,755 CY 2011 18,597 6,782 24,740 18,989 12,802 13,711 % Chg. -2% -2% 3% 3% 3% 0% CY 2012 Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Jan. 1,463 -6% 557 1% 2,044 -1% 1,612 0% 1,137 9% 1,251 11% Feb. 1,373 -1% 529 3% 1,989 0% 1,567 2% 1,092 17% 1,248 21% Mar. 1,468 1% 593 5% 1,998 -5% 1,613 -2% 1,102 8% 1,271 11% Apr. 1,417 -7% 546 -4% 1,932 -5% 1,523 0% 1,067 10% 1,214 23% May 1,498 -5% 591 2% 1,931 -4% 1,501 -1% 1,047 1% 1,186 9% Jun. 1,373 -7% 543 -5% 1,895 -3% 1,509 2% 987 -1% 1,155 13% CY 2011 (Jan. - Jun.) 8,963 3,350 12,141 9,316 5,994 6,398 CY 2012 (Jan. - Jun.) 8,592 3,359 11,789 9,325 6,432 7,325 % Chg. -4% 0% -3% 0% 7% 14% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau (Government E-stat data compiled by Post) Unit: JP Yen/Gram Ground Meat Ham Sausage CY 2011 Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Jan. 156 0% 144 -5% 319 1% 175 -1% 523 -3% 402 -5% Feb. 160 0% 160 0% 299 1% 165 -1% 527 -2% 399 -3% Mar. 170 1% 163 2% 345 2% 196 8% 598 0% 455 0% Apr. 170 3% 155 -1% 352 4% 195 5% 608 2% 456 -3% May 186 7% 174 7% 395 2% 219 4% 632 1% 494 6% Jun. 173 -1% 167 -3% 454 -1% 246 -4% 575 0% 431 -5% July 154 -3% 151 3% 603 4% 334 9% 570 0% 444 1% Aug. 164 5% 156 4% 490 -1% 257 -6% 595 -1% 450 -1% Sept. 170 6% 160 5% 364 -3% 210 4% 600 -1% 466 2% Oct. 168 6% 158 4% 358 0% 197 3% 633 1% 480 -2% Nov. 161 3% 156 3% 571 9% 307 6% 612 4% 466 4% Dec. 150 4% 148 6% 1,084 -5% 524 -6% 626 4% 457 0% CY 2010 1,932 1,853 5,618 2,993 7,067 5,434 CY 2011 1,982 1,892 5,634 3,025 7,099 5,400 % Chg. 3% 2% 0% 1% 0% -1% CY2012 Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Jan. 157 1% 153 6% 332 4% 181 3% 539 3% 421 5% Feb. 146 -9% 148 -8% 306 2% 174 5% 554 5% 438 10% Mar. 172 1% 170 4% 356 3% 201 3% 601 1% 463 2% Apr. 161 -5% 154 -1% 363 3% 206 6% 600 -1% 463 2% May 169 -9% 157 -10% 401 2% 226 3% 632 0% 486 -2% Jun. 169 -2% 159 -5% 464 2% 245 0% 576 0% 453 5% CY 2011 (Jan. - Jun.) 1,015 963 2,164 1,196 3,463 2,637 CY 2012 (Jan. - Jun.) 974 941 2,222 1,233 3,502 2,724 % Chg. -4% -2% 3% 3% 1% 3% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau (Government E-stat data compiled by Post) Unit: JP Yen/Gram Bacon Yakitori (Prepared) Hamburg Stake (Prepared) CY 2011 Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Jan. 166 -3% 95 -7% 134 -6% 83 22% Feb. 186 1% 114 2% 115 5% 78 7% Mar. 204 0% 132 9% 135 -11% 88 10% Apr. 204 7% 123 9% 160 9% 80 0% May 217 9% 131 5% 182 10% 79 -5% Jun. 218 15% 133 13% 155 5% 83 0% July 196 8% 121 10% 186 -2% 80 -6% Aug. 200 17% 121 15% 222 -2% 78 0% Sept. 212 10% 133 14% 150 -8% 87 -1% Oct. 207 6% 130 7% 150 3% 85 2% Nov. 211 10% 129 11% 153 20% 95 16% Dec. 208 1% 127 6% 154 7% 84 5% CY 2010 2,275 1,380 1,861 963 CY 2011 2,429 1,489 1,896 1,000 % Chg. 7% 8% 2% 4% CY 2012 Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Jan. 189 14% 113 19% 130 -3% 78 -6% Feb. 195 5% 115 1% 126 10% 72 -8% Mar. 205 0% 118 -11% 159 18% 84 -5% Apr. 206 1% 130 6% 168 5% 82 2% May 222 2% 137 5% 162 -11% 84 6% Jun. 201 -8% 129 -3% 170 10% 87 5% CY 2011 Jan. - Jun. 1,195 728 881 491 CY 2012 Jan. - Jun. 1,218 742 915 487 % Chg. 2% 2% 4% -1% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau Table 2: Australian Beef Exports to Japan Unit: Metric Ton (Shipped Weight Basis) Annual 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 Jan/Dec Jan/Dec % Chg. Share Jan/July Jan/July % Chg. Chilled Beef 155,536 138,408 -11% 100% 80,267 74,851 -7% Grass 51,775 45,558 -12% 33% 27,381 24,764 -10% Grain fed 103,761 92,850 -11% 67% 52,886 50,087 -5% Frozen Beef 200,675 203,778 2% 100% 110,215 107,046 -3% Grass 150,074 155,172 3% 76% 80,874 84,922 5% Grain fed 50,601 48,606 -4% 24% 29,341 22,125 -25% TOTAL 356,211 342,186 -4% 100% 190,483 181,898 -5% Grass 201,850 200,731 -1% 59% 108,255 109,686 1% Grain fed 154,362 141,456 -8% 41% 82,227 72,212 -12% Source: Meat Livestock Australia (Compiled by post) Table 3-A: Beef Safeguard Trigger Levels for JFY 2012 and Actual Imports Year to Date Beef Safeguard Trigger Levels for JFY 2011 and Actual Imports Year to Date Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Chilled Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 74,339 55,274 18,596 17,148 19,530 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 152,456 108,446 17,766 17,300 18,106 October November December I - III (Apr. - Dec.) 230,642 164,123 17,192 20,107 18,378 January February March I - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 292,355 210,423 13,424 15,265 17,611 Frozen Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 79,135 68,169 29,419 22,829 15,921 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 175,480 152,298 29,710 28,736 25,683 October November December I - III (Apr. - Dec.) 264,467 232,706 26,091 27,255 27,062 January February March I - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 341,996 300,164 23,140 24,609 19,709 Beef Safeguard Trigger Levels for JFY 2012 and Actual Imports Year to Date Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Chilled Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 74,339 53,797 16,874 18,970 17,953 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 152,456 53,797 0 0 0 October November December I - III (Apr. - Dec.) 230,642 53,797 0 0 0 January February March I - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 292,355 53,797 0 0 0 Frozen Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 79,758 71,168 20,261 23,082 27,825 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 178,189 71,168 0 0 0 October November December I - III (Apr. - Dec.) 271,266 71,168 0 0 0 January February March I - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 351,192 71,168 0 0 0 Source: Ministry of Finance (Table Compiled by Post) Note: Beef SG trigger levels are set for each quarter of the Japanese fiscal year (starting April 1 and ending March 31 of the next year) on a cumulative basis. A basic formula to calculate the next year’s trigger level is set at 117% of the actual imports of the previous year. Since JFY 2006, the GOJ has put into effect a special measure to determine the SG trigger levels are set at a 17% increase of average quarterly imports of JFY 2002 and JFY 2003 to help overall beef market recovery. If the trigger level of the previous year’s imports for any quarter is calculated higher than the above formula, the higher number becomes the trigger level of that particular quarter. For the next JFY 2013 (April 2013 – March 2014), Post’s preliminary calculations made for the 2012 first quarter trigger levels for chilled and frozen beef are: Chilled Beef: 74,339 MT (40 percent higher than 2012 first quarter actual imports), and Frozen Beef: 83,267 MT (17 percent higher than 2012 first quarter actual imports). The levels for each appear to be able to stand for any substantial spikes in the import that may take place when Japan’s import requirements for American beef were to be relaxed (Official safeguard trigger levels for JFY 2013 are scheduled to be announced sometime in March 2013). Table 3-B: Pork Safeguard Trigger Levels for JFY 2012 and Actual Imports Year to Date Pork Safeguard Trigger Levels for JFY 2010 and Actual Imports Year to Date Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 224,488 198,319 66,192 60,274 71,853 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 434,398 376,577 65,680 61,408 51,170 October November December I - III (Apr. - Dec.) 645,081 539,862 51,964 55,805 55,516 January February March I - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 839,812 714,658 53,936 58,265 62,595 Pork Safeguard Trigger Levels for JFY 2011 and Actual Imports Year to Date Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 228,878 192,076 67,802 59,008 65,266 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 437,636 361,225 55,510 58,436 55,203 October November December I - III (Apr. - Dec.) 641,388 557,778 63,395 71,001 62,157 January February March I - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 838,343 740,135 62,783 58,693 60,881 Pork Safeguard Trigger Levels for JFY 2012 and Actual Imports Year to Date Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 223,444 170,045 50,349 67,679 52,017 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 421,554 170,045 0 0 0 October November December I - III (Apr. - Dec.) 625,909 170,045 0 0 0 January February March I - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 830,504 170,045 0 0 0 Source: Ministry of Finance (Table Compiled by Post) Note: Pork SG trigger levels are set for each quarter of Japanese fiscal year on a cumulative basis. A basic formula to calculate the next year’s trigger level is set at 119% compared to the actual imports of the average of the three preceding years. For the next JFY 2013, the first quarter trigger level for pork is calculated on a preliminary basis per below (Official GOJ numbers are yet to be announced): Pork (Chilled and Frozen Combined): 222,308 MT. Table 4-A: Average Wholesale Prices of Domestic Beef, Medium Grade Carcasses by Breed, Tokyo Market YTD Unit: Yen/Kg. WAGYU STEER A-3 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 1,542 1,529 1,462 1,535 1,517 2010 1,460 1,469 1,479 1,549 1,489 %chg -5% -4% 1% 1% -2% 2011 1,530 1,437 1,197 1,152 1,329 %chg 5% -2% -19% -26% -11% 2012 1,292 1,442 %chg -16% 0% WAGYU STEER A-2 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 1,267 1,302 1,196 1,202 1,242 2010 1,223 1,291 1,300 1,351 1,291 %chg -4% -1% 9% 12% 4% 2011 1,362 1,256 900 828 1,087 %chg 11% -3% -31% -39% -16% 2012 1,042 1,263 %chg -23% 1% WAGYU Heifer A-3 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 1,578 1,563 1,476 1,539 1,539 2010 1,469 1,470 1,473 1,544 1,489 %chg -7% -6% -0% 0% -3% 2011 1,534 1,430 1,225 1,188 1,344 %chg 4% -3% -17% -23% -10% 2012 1,250 1,394 %chg -18% -3% Holstein Steer B-2 Grade 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 807 763 736 754 765 2010 697 685 635 648 666 %chg -14% -10% -14% -14% -13% 2011 652 645 329 362 497 %chg -6% -6% -48% -44% -25% 2012 342 591 %chg -48% -8% Holstein Cow C-2 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 479 472 447 375 443 2010 338 370 378 344 358 %chg -29% -22% -15% -8% -19% 2011 394 439 357 183 344 %chg 17% 19% -6% -47% -4% 2012 232 366 %chg -41% -17% F1 Cross Breed Heifer B-3 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 1,116 1,106 1,072 1,097 1,098 2010 1,068 1,123 1,118 1,252 1,140 %chg -4% 2% 4% 14% 4% 2011 1,199 1,137 1,015 845 1,049 %chg 12% 1% -9% -32% -8% 2012 847 1,045 %chg -29% -8% F1 Cross Breed Heifer B-2 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 916 948 844 852 890 2010 895 998 978 1,116 997 %chg -2% 5% 16% 31% 12% 2011 1,096 980 798 573 862 %chg 22% -2% -18% -49% -14% 2012 676 918 %chg -38% -6% F1 Cross Breed Steer B-3 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 1,140 1,138 1,117 1,151 1,140 2010 1,156 1,149 1,150 1,274 1,173 %chg 1% 1% 3% 11% 3% 2011 1,202 1,176 1,040 864 1,075 %chg 4% 2% -10% -32% -8% 2012 931 1,072 %chg -22% -9% F1 Cross Breed Steer B-2 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 949 970 885 902 927 2010 929 1,031 1,000 1,144 1,026 %chg -2% 6% 13% 27% 11% 2011 1,112 1,073 857 623 916 %chg 20% 4% -14% -46% -11% 2012 747 963 %chg -33% -10% Source: Meat Distribution Statistics, MAFF (Quarterly Numbers are compiled by Post) Table 4-B: Average Wholesale Prices of Imported Beef by Cuts and Origin, Chilled Cuts YTD Unit: JP Yen/ Kg. Full Set, Aussie Beef, Chilled, (Short Grain Fed) 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 730 746 755 743 744 2010 756 786 715 768 756 %chg 4% 5% -5% 3% 2% 2011 842 803 758 772 794 %chg 11% 2% 6% 0% 5% 2012 797 863 %chg -5% 8% Full Set, Aussie Beef, Chilled, (Grass Fed) 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 638 630 648 677 648 2010 719 688 637 694 684 %chg 13% 9% -2% 3% 6% 2011 767 703 669 687 707 %chg 7% 2% 5% -1% 3% 2012 728 772 %chg -5% 10% Navel-end Brisket, Aussie Beef, Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 573 640 604 576 598 2010 597 552 548 556 563 %chg 4% -14% -9% -3% -6% 2011 586 552 532 513 546 %chg -2% 0% -3% -8% -3% 2012 539 607 %chg -8% 10% Strip Loin, Aussie Beef, Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 1,042 989 1,068 1,078 1,044 2010 1,317 1,158 975 981 1,108 %chg 26% 17% -9% -9% 6% 2011 1,148 1,008 940 945 1,010 %chg -13% -13% -4% -4% -9% 2012 1,167 1,177 %chg 2% 17% Chuck Rib, US Beef, Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 1,291 1,289 1,116 1,007 1,176 2010 1,024 1,186 1,139 1,053 1,101 %chg -21% -8% 2% 5% -6% 2011 1,087 1,111 1,049 1,024 1,068 %chg 6% -6% -8% -3% -3% 2012 1,133 1,276 %chg 4% 15% Chuck Eye, US Beef, Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 799 732 703 725 740 2010 743 758 718 755 743 %chg -7% 4% 2% 4% 1% 2011 814 739 697 799 762 %chg 10% -3% -3% 6% 3% 2012 788 772 %chg -3% 4% Source: Meat Distribution Statistics, MAFF (Quarterly Numbers are compiled by Post) Table 5-A: Average Wholesale Prices of Domestic Pork Carcasses by Grade, Tokyo Market YTD Unit: JP Yen/Kg. Excellent Grade 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 409 471 414 417 428 2010 419 485 495 446 461 % Chg 3% 3% 20% 7% 8% 2011 466 506 493 411 469 % Chg 11% 4% -1% -8% 2% 2012 422 478 % Chg -9% -6% Medium Grade 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 380 444 380 377 395 2010 371 444 446 405 417 % Chg -2% -0% 17% 8% 5% 2011 425 475 455 375 433 % Chg 14% 7% 2% -7% 4% 2012 381 430 % Chg -10% -10% Source: Meat Distribution Statistics, MAFF (Quarterly Numbers are compiled by Post) Table 5-B: Average Wholesale Prices of Domestic Pork by Cuts, Fresh/Chilled YTD Unit: JP Yen/Kg. Full-set: Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 599 651 608 584 610 2010 606 669 716 640 658 %chg 1% 3% 18% 10% 8% 2011 685 729 704 586 676 %chg 13% 9% -2% -8% 3% 2012 598 664 %chg -13% -9% Picnic: Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 448 480 439 408 444 2010 422 483 494 454 463 %chg -6% 1% 13% 11% 4% 2011 498 550 525 446 505 %chg 18% 14% 6% -2% 9% 2012 439 477 %chg -12% -13% Shoulder Loin: Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 785 822 779 796 795 2010 781 823 892 874 842 %chg -1% 0% 15% 10% 6% 2011 874 875 874 779 851 %chg 12% 6% -2% -11% 1% 2012 768 814 %chg -12% -7% Loin: Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 826 887 837 829 845 2010 812 879 951 906 887 %chg -2% -1% 14% 9% 5% 2011 917 915 925 810 892 %chg 13% 4% -3% -11% 1% 2012 768 814 %chg -16% -11% Tender Loin: Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 968 1,032 971 931 975 2010 934 975 997 932 959 %chg -4% -5% 3% 0% -2% 2011 963 996 991 886 959 %chg 3% 2% -1% -5% -0% 2012 865 926 %chg -10% -7% Belly: Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 743 752 694 741 733 2010 763 786 815 861 806 %chg 3% 4% 17% 16% 10% 2011 878 868 817 754 829 %chg 15% 10% 0% -12% 3% 2012 763 765 %chg -13% -12% Ham: Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2009 478 519 474 437 477 2010 449 519 524 479 493 %chg -6% -0% 11% 9% 3% 2011 516 569 550 467 526 %chg 15% 10% 5% -2% 7% 2012 457 508 %chg -11% -11% Source: Meat Distribution Statistics, MAFF (Quarterly Numbers are compiled by Post) Table 6-A: Monthly Ending Stock of Beef Unit: Metric Ton (Carcass Equivalent) 2008 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. 2012 % Chg. Jan. 101,830 114,384 12% 109,507 -4% 121,460 11% 129,254 6% Feb. 100,194 115,133 15% 101,847 -12% 115,384 13% 121,915 6% Mar. 101,938 110,956 9% 96,699 -13% 120,288 24% 111,626 -7% Apr. 98,662 101,165 3% 99,306 -2% 114,618 15% 107,579 -6% May 103,544 101,452 -2% 102,899 1% 117,349 14% 112,944 -4% Jun. 104,682 108,608 4% 108,482 -0% 128,628 19% 124,592 -3% Jul. 112,221 117,881 5% 114,444 -3% 136,346 19% Aug. 116,736 120,725 3% 124,660 3% 139,075 12% Sept.. 122,966 122,319 -1% 128,486 5% 134,746 5% Oct. 123,063 122,452 -0% 124,109 1% 131,445 6% Nov. 120,012 124,414 4% 128,394 3% 135,610 6% Dec. 116,134 119,342 3% 128,677 8% 136,006 6% Source: ALIC Monthly Statistics Table 6-B: Monthly Ending Stock of Pork Unit: Metric Ton (Carcass Equivalent) 2008 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. 2012 % Chg. Jan. 215,210 242,187 13% 222,352 -8% 221,793 -0% 232,219 5% Feb. 213,395 247,941 16% 218,429 -12% 229,346 5% 238,564 4% Mar. 221,711 252,377 14% 223,313 -12% 226,091 1% 237,673 5% Apr. 238,494 256,396 8% 227,208 -11% 225,358 -1% 231,592 3% May 250,532 265,288 6% 240,895 -9% 233,488 -3% 234,878 1% Jun. 242,774 268,905 11% 261,197 -3% 235,265 -10% 219,436 -7% Jul. 234,295 261,222 11% 269,677 3% 228,322 -15% Aug. 240,890 248,970 3% 270,292 9% 219,876 -19% Sept.. 240,707 237,154 -1% 258,098 9% 210,201 -19% Oct. 240,872 228,019 -5% 242,017 6% 210,187 -13% Nov. 232,638 222,256 -4% 227,482 2% 219,132 -4% Dec. 237,377 217,071 -9% 218,404 1% 215,833 -1% Source: ALIC Monthly Statistics Table 7-A: Japanese 2012 Total Beef Imports YTD, Chilled and Frozen Cuts Combined/CIF Price Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 %Change World MT 481,136 499,531 517,231 4% 100% 240,253 240,353 0% Australia MT 363,907 351,118 338,744 -4% 65% 160,241 153,553 -4% United States MT 69,192 91,618 120,605 32% 23% 51,680 56,871 10% New Zealand MT 29,558 31,584 29,739 -6% 6% 16,781 17,661 5% Mexico MT 9,629 11,938 17,406 46% 3% 7,998 8,616 8% Canada MT 8,527 12,926 10,179 -21% 2% 3,303 3,393 3% Others MT 323 347 558 61% 0% 250 259 4% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World $ per MT 4,139.04 4,585.03 5,115.24 12% 5,147.06 5,280.79 3% United States $ per MT 5,341.05 5,362.16 5,700.51 6% 5,710.02 6,221.23 9% New Zealand $ per MT 3,711.94 4,355.22 5,124.90 18% 4,978.07 5,216.99 5% Australia $ per MT 3,917.80 4,412.44 4,967.33 13% 5,036.09 4,990.13 -1% Canada $ per MT 4,850.31 4,603.47 4,754.36 3% 4,866.98 5,277.36 8% Mexico $ per MT 4,564.53 4,294.19 4,146.19 -3% 4,211.06 4,388.85 4% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 7-B: Japanese 2012 Beef Imports YTD, Chilled Cuts Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Year To Date Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World MT 212,727 211,445 213,400 1% 100% 104,210 100,151 -4% Australia MT 168,577 155,036 139,764 -10% 65% 71,439 61,175 -14% United States MT 34,535 44,130 61,916 40% 29% 27,093 32,748 21% New Zealand MT 6,057 7,316 7,531 3% 4% 3,770 4,186 11% Canada MT 2,472 3,730 2,909 -22% 1% 1,261 1,152 -9% Mexico MT 1,086 1,232 1,280 4% 1% 648 890 37% Others MT 0 1 0 -100% 0% -1 0 -100% Source of Data: World Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 06/2011 06/2012 %Change World $ per MT 5,422.61 6,065.74 6,817.89 12% 6,710.38 7,057.53 5% Canada $ per MT 6,152.40 6,997.59 7,376.43 5% 6,945.14 7,128.71 3% New Zealand $ per MT 6,087.30 6,437.21 7,203.37 12% 7,118.15 7,637.70 7% United States $ per MT 6,140.58 6,615.74 7,073.94 7% 6,951.70 7,404.30 7% Australia $ per MT 5,238.31 5,870.66 6,676.64 14% 6,596.90 6,850.21 4% Mexico $ per MT 5,830.97 5,885.86 6,317.05 7% 6,302.86 5,729.66 -9% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 7-C: Japanese 2012 Beef Imports YTD, Frozen Cuts Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World MT 268,408 288,086 303,831 5% 100% 136,042 140,202 3% Australia MT 195,330 196,082 198,979 1% 65% 88,802 92,378 4% United States MT 34,658 47,488 58,689 24% 19% 24,587 24,123 -2% New Zealand MT 23,501 24,268 22,207 -8% 7% 13,011 13,475 4% Mexico MT 8,543 10,705 16,126 51% 5% 7,351 7,726 5% Canada MT 6,055 9,196 7,270 -21% 2% 2,042 2,241 10% Others MT 321 347 560 61% 0% 249 259 4% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World $ per MT 3,121.74 3,498.25 3,919.36 12% 3,949.52 4,011.60 2% Vanuatu $ per MT 3,352.77 4,174.69 4,591.54 10% 4,390.70 4,754.97 8% New Zealand $ per MT 3,099.68 3,727.55 4,420.02 19% 4,358.00 4,465.08 2% United States $ per MT 4,544.35 4,197.21 4,251.57 1% 4,341.83 4,615.18 6% Mexico $ per MT 4,403.58 4,110.98 3,973.88 -3% 4,026.80 4,234.33 5% Australia $ per MT 2,778.15 3,259.46 3,766.70 16% 3,780.46 3,758.35 -1% Canada $ per MT 4,318.67 3,632.38 3,705.10 2% 3,583.28 4,325.79 21% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table7-D: Japanese 2012 Beef Imports YTD, Prepared and Processed Products Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World MT 12,901 11,995 11,715 -2% 100% 6,113 4,850 -21% Australia MT 5,802 5,677 5,486 -3% 47% 2,839 2,835 0% China MT 1,831 2,525 2,822 12% 24% 1,497 1,081 -28% Brazil MT 4,393 2,994 2,761 -8% 24% 1,440 531 -63% New Zealand MT 614 498 421 -15% 4% 225 202 -10% Others MT 261 301 225 -25% 2% 112 201 79% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 7-F: Japanese 2012 Beef Imports YTD, Edible Meat and Offal Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World MT 38,454 41,763 44,192 6% 100% 21,405 20,407 -5% Australia MT 19,942 18,504 17,972 -3% 41% 8,923 8,537 -4% United States MT 9,723 13,899 17,186 24% 39% 7,814 7,602 -3% New Zealand MT 4,255 3,839 3,666 -5% 8% 2,202 2,045 -7% Mexico MT 1,791 2,335 2,375 2% 5% 1,293 1,091 -16% Canada MT 1,741 2,146 2,052 -4% 5% 745 642 -14% Others MT 1,002 1,040 941 -10% 2% 428 490 14% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World $ per MT 7,780.33 8,157.74 9,317.25 14% 9,222.16 9,612.36 4% United States $ per MT 10,444.06 9,523.12 10,058.99 6% 9,932.09 11,590.76 17% New Zealand $ per MT 5,857.62 7,227.36 9,218.55 28% 9,503.38 8,147.19 -14% Canada $ per MT 8,928.13 8,411.69 9,107.17 8% 8,835.41 9,555.50 8% Australia $ per MT 6,915.36 7,644.29 9,063.20 19% 9,006.66 8,672.81 -4% Mexico $ per MT 7,325.74 6,220.29 6,929.74 11% 6,703.45 6,956.05 4% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 8-A: Japanese 2012 Pork Imports YTD, Chilled and Frozen Cuts Combined Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World MT 702,938 753,027 793,096 5% 100% 394,387 380,518 -4% United States MT 288,667 298,347 323,750 9% 41% 163,028 163,001 0% Canada MT 172,373 178,648 174,004 -3% 22% 83,469 81,158 -3% Denmark MT 122,923 133,586 130,723 -2% 16% 64,761 57,220 -12% Mexico MT 43,684 40,855 41,275 1% 5% 18,536 21,073 14% Chile MT 26,172 24,507 28,956 18% 4% 14,255 13,068 -8% Others MT 49,119 77,084 94,388 22% 12% 50,338 44,998 -11% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World $ per MT 5,597.77 5,977.13 6,589.12 10% 6,401.80 6,591.51 3% Mexico $ per MT 5,638.25 6,022.12 6,640.44 10% 6,421.32 6,626.62 3% Canada $ per MT 5,612.58 5,965.23 6,597.87 11% 6,402.96 6,591.63 3% Chile $ per MT 5,614.25 5,988.79 6,591.34 10% 6,406.60 6,592.08 3% Denmark $ per MT 5,579.80 5,979.02 6,585.31 10% 6,405.75 6,576.73 3% United States $ per MT 5,564.63 5,946.11 6,564.41 10% 6,377.60 6,567.60 3% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 8-B: Japanese 2012 Pork Imports YTD, Chilled Cuts Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World MT 233,738 231,365 254,416 10% 100% 125,402 128,669 3% United States MT 169,935 167,203 182,590 9% 72% 90,537 91,206 1% Canada MT 52,860 54,434 62,333 15% 25% 30,229 32,919 9% Mexico MT 10,640 9,397 9,190 -2% 4% 4,510 4,403 -2% Others MT 303 331 303 -8% 0% 126 141 12% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Unit Value(United States Dollars) Year To Date Partne r Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World $ per MT 5,575 5,983 6,582 10% 6,396 6,571 3% Canada $ per MT 5,612 6,009 6,602 10% 6,412 6,590 3% Mexico $ per MT 5,632 5,992 6,598 10% 6,411 6,578 3% United States $ per MT 5,554 5,970 6,569 10% 6,385 6,559 3% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 8-C: Japanese 2012 Pork Imports YTD, Frozen Cuts Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World MT 469,200 521,662 538,679 3% 100% 268,985 251,849 -6% United States MT 118,731 131,144 141,160 8% 26% 72,491 71,795 -1% Denmark MT 122,923 133,513 130,699 -2% 24% 64,761 57,220 -12% Canada MT 119,513 124,214 111,672 -10% 21% 53,240 48,240 -9% Mexico MT 33,043 31,458 32,086 2% 6% 14,026 16,671 19% Chile MT 26,172 24,507 28,913 18% 5% 14,244 13,058 -8% Others MT 48,818 76,826 94,149 23% 17% 50,223 44,865 -11% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World $ per MT 5,609.30 5,974.35 6,592.70 10% 6,404.62 6,602.23 3% Mexico $ per MT 5,640.37 6,031.14 6,652.73 10% 6,424.50 6,639.48 3% Canada $ per MT 5,612.66 5,946.19 6,595.65 11% 6,397.95 6,593.07 3% Chile $ per MT 5,614.25 5,988.79 6,591.25 10% 6,406.60 6,592.07 3% Denmark $ per MT 5,579.80 5,978.86 6,585.26 10% 6,405.75 6,576.73 3% United States $ per MT 5,579.99 5,915.91 6,558.41 11% 6,368.91 6,578.31 3% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 8-D: Japanese 2012 Pork Imports YTD, Prepared and Processed Products Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) ar Year Year To Date Partner Country U Calendnit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World MT 172,599 168,869 171,549 2% 100% 84,814 94,197 11% United States MT 111,547 104,274 110,054 6% 64% 55,149 60,721 10% China MT 27,872 27,815 25,178 -9% 15% 11,954 13,744 15% Canada MT 14,728 16,572 14,598 -12% 9% 7,308 7,736 6% Thailand MT 5,579 7,362 7,345 0% 4% 3,333 3,752 13% Others MT 12,873 12,846 14,374 12% 8% 7,070 8,244 17% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World $ per MT 3,304.18 3,733.16 4,225.22 13% 3,982.76 4,229.57 6% Thailand $ per MT 6,984.58 7,126.91 8,243.02 16% 7,743.36 8,657.43 12% China $ per MT 4,517.45 4,710.46 5,532.53 17% 5,168.74 6,182.23 20% United States $ per MT 2,612.81 3,159.66 3,539.93 12% 3,405.05 3,443.23 1% Canada $ per MT 2,475.61 2,562.42 3,262.63 27% 3,026.33 3,327.21 10% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 8-E: Japanese 2012 Pork Imports YTD, Sausages Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) alendar Year Year To Date Partner Country U Cnit 2009 2010 2011 % Change % Share in 2011 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World MT 40,735 43,347 45,702 5% 100% 20,992 24,576 17% China MT 20,645 23,244 23,054 -1% 50% 10,822 11,982 11% United States MT 9,551 8,711 9,231 6% 20% 4,064 4,876 20% Thailand MT 5,083 5,425 7,796 44% 17% 3,518 4,217 20% Others MT 5,456 5,967 5,621 -6% 12% 2,588 3,501 35% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 06/2011 06/2012 % Change World $ per MT 4,660.54 4,853.97 5,504.86 13% 5,145.53 5,679.46 10% United States $ per MT 4,296.69 4,803.92 5,390.20 12% 5,192.60 5,583.05 8% China $ per MT 4,497.29 4,532.18 5,375.36 19% 4,893.39 5,662.34 16% Thailand $ per MT 4,681.44 5,047.21 5,359.65 6% 5,239.93 5,434.53 4% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 9: Year Beginning Livestock Inventory as of February 1 As of February 1 Each Year Historic Series of Japanese Cattle Inventory 2008 2009 %chg 2010 %chg 2011 %chg 2012 %chg Number of Beef Cattle Farms (1,000) 80.4 77.3 -4% 74.4 -4% 69.6 -6% 65.2 -6% Beef Cattle (Wagyu and Other) (1,000) 1,823 1,889 4% 1,924 2% 1,868 -3% 1,831 -2% Dairy Cattle for Beef (1,000) 431 431 0% 421 -2% 412 -2% 412 0% F-1 Cross Bred Cattle (1,000) 636 636 0% 547 -14% 483 -12% 499 3% 'Sub Total Dairy & F-1 Cattle for Beef (1,000) 1,067 1,067 0% 968 -9% 895 -8% 892 0% Total Beef Cattle Raised (1,000) 2,890 2,956 2% 2,892 -2% 2,763 -4% 2,723 -1% Number of Dairy Cattle Farms (Female) (1,000) 24.4 23.1 -5% 21.9 -5% 21.0 -4% 20.1 -4% Total Dairy Cow and Heifer Raised (1,000) 1,533 1,500 -2% 1,484 -1% 1,467 -1% 1,449 -1% Total Cattle Raised (1,000) 4,423 4,456 1% 4,376 -2% 4,230 -3% 4,172 -1% Historic Series of Japanese Swine Inventory 2008 2009 %chg 2010 %chg 2011 %chg 2012 %chg Number of Swine Farms (1,000) 7.2 6.9 -4% N.A. 6.0 5.8 -3% Number of Hogs Raised for Fattening (1,000) 8,117 8,220 1% N.A. 8,186 8,145 -1% Total Swine Raised (1,000) 9,745 9,899 2% N.A. 9,768 9,735 0% Source: MAFF Livestock Statistics Due to Agricultural Census to be conducted every five year, only the cattle inventory data for the year beginning of 2010 was announced, but for the hog inventory, statistical data collection was not made.
Posted: 21 October 2012

See more from Animal Husbandry and Support Services in Japan

Expert Views    
Japan - Grain and Feed Annual 2013   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Livestock and Products Semi-annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Livestock and Products Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
2012 Japan Broiler Market Situation Update   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Hot Tips    
Japan Poultry and Products Annual Report 2009   By Foreign Agricultural Service