Livestock and Products Annual

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Japan

Posted on: 31 Oct 2011

From January to June 2011, American beef imports surged up 50 percent from the previous year, testifying to Japan’s strong demand. Japan's overall beef market consumption is expected to improve from the previous year’s slump in 2012

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 9/5/2011 GAIN Report Number: JA1038 Japan Livestock and Products Annual 2011 Japan Market Situation Update and 2012 Outlook Approved By: Benjamin Petlock, Agricultural Attachés Prepared By: Kakuyu Obara, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: From January to June 2011, American beef imports surged up 50 percent from the previous year, testifying to Japan?s strong demand. Japan's overall beef market consumption is expected to improve from the previous year?s slump in 2012 as consumer anxieties over food safety incidents (E-coli poisoning and cesium detection in beef) subside and the distribution of domestic beef is normalized. The pork market is expected to sustain a relatively high level consumption. However, the anticipated recovery of domestic pork production is expected to curtail the import outlook for the year. Commodities: Animal Numbers, Cattle Meat, Beef and Veal Animal Numbers, Swine Meat, Swine Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Live Cattle PS&D Table Animal Numbers, Cattle 2010 2011 2012 Japan Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official P ost Total Cattle Beg. Stks 4,376 4,376 4,280 4,230 4,150 (1000 HEAD) Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks 830 830 825 805 800 (1000 HEAD) Beef Cows Beg. Stocks 675 675 670 668 660 (1000 HEAD) Production (Calf Crop) 1,360 1,359 1,350 1,340 1,330 (1000 HEAD) Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Imports 16 16 17 12 15 (1000 HEAD) Total Imports 16 16 17 12 15 (1000 HEAD) Total Supply 5,752 5,751 5,647 5,582 5,495 (1000 HEAD) Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Cow Slaughter 546 546 545 535 530 (1000 HEAD) Calf Slaughter 8 9 10 10 10 (1000 HEAD) Other Slaughter 663 663 655 650 640 (1000 HEAD) Total Slaughter 1,217 1,218 1,210 1,195 1,180 (1000 HEAD) Loss 255 303 157 237 215 (1000 HEAD) Ending Inventories 4,280 4,230 4,280 4,150 4,100 (1000 HEAD) Total Distribution 5,752 5,751 5,647 5,582 5,495 (1000 HEAD) CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Live Swine PS&D Table Animal Numbers, Swine 2010 2011 2012 Japan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: 2010 2011 Jan 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official P ost Total Beginning Stocks 10,000 10,000 9,800 9,768 9,800 (1000 HEAD) Sow Beginning Stocks 930 930 920 901 915 (1000 HEAD) Production (Pig Crop) 17,500 17,500 17,400 17,000 17,300 (1000 HEAD) Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Imports 1 1 1 1 1 (1000 HEAD) Total Imports 1 1 1 1 1 (1000 HEAD) Total Supply 27,501 27,501 27,201 26,769 27,101 (1000 HEAD) Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Sow Slaughter 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Other Slaughter 16,788 16,788 16,700 16,270 16,600 (1000 HEAD) Total Slaughter 16,788 16,788 16,700 16,270 16,600 (1000 HEAD) Loss 913 945 601 699 651 (1000 HEAD) Ending Inventories 9,800 9,768 9,900 9,800 9,850 (1000 HEAD) Total Distribution 27,501 27,501 27,201 26,769 27,101 (1000 HEAD) CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 HEAD) Beef and Veal PS&D Table Meat, Beef and Veal 2010 2011 2012 Japan Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New O fficial Post Official Post Official Post Slaughter (Reference) 1,217 1,218 1,210 1,195 1,180 (1000 HEAD) Beginning Stocks 119 119 129 129 151 (1000 MT CWE) Production 514 515 510 505 500 (1000 MT CWE) Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT CWE) Other Imports 721 721 725 725 725 (1000 MT CWE) Total Imports 721 721 725 725 725 (1000 MT CWE) Total Supply 1,354 1,355 1,364 1,359 1,376 (1000 MT CWE) Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT CWE) Other Exports 1 1 0 0 1 (1000 MT CWE) Total Exports 1 1 0 0 1 (1000 MT CWE) Human Dom. Consumption 1,224 1,225 1,236 1,208 1,233 (1000 MT CWE) Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT CWE) Total Dom. Consumption 1,224 1,225 1,236 1,208 1,233 (1000 MT CWE) Ending Stocks 129 129 128 151 142 (1000 MT CWE) Total Distribution 1,354 1,355 1,364 1,359 1,376 (1000 MT CWE) CY Imp. from U.S. 102 129 0 154 161 (1000 MT CWE) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT CWE) Pork PS&D Table Meat, Swine 2010 2011 2012 Japan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official P ost Slaughter (Reference) 16,788 16,788 16,700 16,270 16,600 (1000 HEAD) Beginning Stocks 217 217 220 218 202 (1000 MT CWE) Production 1,291 1,292 1,285 1,255 1,280 (1000 MT CWE) Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT CWE) Other Imports 1,198 1,207 1,210 1,235 1,222 (1000 MT CWE) Total Imports 1,198 1,207 1,210 1,235 1,222 (1000 MT CWE) Total Supply 2,706 2,716 2,715 2,708 2,704 (1000 MT CWE) Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT CWE) Other Exports 1 1 0 0 1 (1000 MT CWE) Total Exports 1 1 0 0 1 (1000 MT CWE) Human Dom. Consumption 2,485 2,497 2,497 2,506 2,501 (1000 MT CWE) Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT CWE) Total Dom. Consumption 2,485 2,497 2,497 2,506 2,501 (1000 MT CWE) Ending Stocks 220 218 218 202 202 (1000 MT CWE) Total Distribution 2,706 2,716 2,715 2,708 2,704 (1000 MT CWE) CY Imp. from U.S. 527 523 0 540 533 (1000 MT CWE) CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT CWE) 2011 Livestock Annual ? Author Notes Preface Previous semiannual outlook numbers for 2011 have been adjusted to reflect first half data for annual cattle (beef) and swine (pork) production, trade and monthly ending stocks, and year beginning livestock inventory publicized by the government. (See JA1005 dated March 4, 2011, Japan Livestock Semiannual Report) In compiling the demand and supply outlook and forecast numbers for CY 2012, Post applied the following assumptions: - No changes to Japan?s Export Verification (EV) Program for U.S. beef, thus continuing to limit the market access for U.S beef - A lack of positive income growth, keeping average consumers to remain low-price seeking Quantities listed in the text are made on the basis of Carcass Weight Equivalent ? CWE (unless specified otherwise). Some numbers in the inserted tables are on a product weight basis and have not been converted to CWE. Rates of conversion from product weight to CWE are: Beef Cuts (Boneless) ? 1.40 Pork Cuts (Boneless) ? 1.30 Processed/Prepared Beef Products ? 1.79 Processed/Prepared Pork Products ? 1.30 Executive Summary The beef market will remain a difficult environment for high priced domestic beef. Overall market consumption in 2012 is expected to improve from the previous year?s slump as market anxieties over several food safety incidents (E-coli poisoning and cesium detection in beef) subside and the distribution of domestic beef is normalized after the disruption from the March 2011 Earthquake. While the total imports of beef cuts for 2012 are projected to remain constant with the previous year at 707,000 MT, a strong market preference for affordably priced grain fed beef is supporting a modest growth outlook for American imports, projected up by only five percent. In 2012, the pork market is expected to sustain a relatively high level consumption. The anticipated recovery of domestic pork production is expected to curtail the import outlook for the year, projected slightly down to 1.222 million MT especially affecting the chilled pork trade. Although imports from the United States are also projected lower, it will retain its sizable share as Japan?s top pork supplier for both pork cuts and the prepared and processed products. 2012 Beef Market Outlook (New) - Domestic Beef Production to Lower Slightly in 2012 By the end of 2012, Japanese cattle farmers are expected to resume normal operations after the challenges caused both by the earthquake and tsunami that occurred in the Tohoku and Kanto regions in March 2011 (See note at the bottom of this section). However, the continued decline in the number of beef calves born for the past couple of years is still pointing towards a slightly lower level than the previous year?s cattle slaughter, and therefore the beef production number for the year is projected down by one percent to 500,000 MT (or total slaughter of 1.18 million heads). In addition, the continued exit out of cattle farms, shrinking dairy operations, and aging farming cattle growers who lack successors, particularly for small scale Wagyu cow calf rearing operations, will remain as medium and long term supply constraints. - Modest Total Beef Consumption Recovery Projected for 2012 Japanese total beef consumption in 2012 is expected to increase from its 2011 decline to recover to 2.233 million MT, a two percent increase from the previous year. This projected increase will primarily be achieved by increased distribution of domestic beef as the previous year?s carried over stocks run down. No significant economic growth is expected in 2012, thus the market will generally remain difficult for high priced food items, including Wagyu beef. A real challenge that the market will face appears to be how to enhance the supply of more affordably priced medium grade grain fed beef in order to improve the overall consumption environment toward a genuine recovery. With the current production and market structure, it appears hard for domestic beef cattle farmers to shift their long held fattening practices of producing highly fat marbled and high value beef in order to meet the potential demand for medium grade beef. Therefore, prospective import demand for grain fed beef seems to be great in 2012. The legitimate constraint will be limited market access due to Japan?s continued imposition of the EV program for American beef. Due to the above challenges faced by Japan, the market demand for American grain fed cuts has been growing in recent years, partially assisted by a strong JP Yen against the U.S. dollar, as well as greater marketing efforts by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) and its Japanese end user clients to restore consumer confidence. Increasing numbers of retailers and food service companies have reportedly been resuming sales of American beef for the past several years. This trend will most likely continue in 2012. Market anxieties due to recent food safety concerns caused by a series of incidents (such as food poisoning caused by E-coli tainted raw beef dish and cesium detection in beef) are not expected to be carried through to 2012 since various risk mitigation measures taken by the government appear to be working effectively. - Total Imports to Stay Flat in 2012 Japan?s total beef imports are projected to roughly sustain last year?s level at 725,000 MT (Beef Cuts: unchanged at 707,000 MT, Processed and Prepared Products: unchanged at 18,000 MT). Following last year?s trend, American beef is expected to continue its inroads into the market (projected up by five percent to 161,000 MT) in 2012, despite the EV access limitation. For this to occur, a slight decrease in currently predominant Aussie beef for 2012 is projected with its share in total beef imports (total beef cuts) slipping slightly to 66 percent. This projection is fairly preliminary since it is uncertain at this time if the 2012 pricing situation will continue to favor American beef, as in the previous year. If Asian demand for beef continues to grow, 2012 international beef prices could strengthen further which would in turn make the availability of low-priced grain fed cuts preferred in this market somewhat tight due to competition. (Note: The major issue for both the government and the affected livestock growers and industry was to promptly secure the feed supply for the devastated regions. At the end of June 2011, production and distribution of formula mixed feeds in the country have reportedly recovered close to their average year level. Partially incapacitated feed mills/grain elevators located in the Pacific coastal area have been repaired and are back in operation, except for those that were completely destroyed. A back-up feed supply for the affected region has been quickly secured by restoring the transportation infrastructure as well as diverting distribution channels to bring needed feeds from other regions. A major food poisoning incident in a raw-beef dish occurred in May 2011, killing several people, including children, and hospitalizing others. The incident caused the sales of many barbecue chains in the country to fall temporarily. While the effects of the above incident continue to linger, cesium detection in beef in July became the major food safety issue of the year, creating widespread public concern, which caused overall beef consumption in the country to slump. Unfortunately, the incident occurred just as the livestock sector in the earthquake devastated regions had begun returning to their normal operations. The first Fukushima cattle incident was detected by the government?s regular radiation monitoring on foods. Further tracing (by using the individual cattle I.D. traceability system) and testing revealed that relatively large numbers of cattle had actually been fed with contaminated rice straw. As of August 24, over 4,400 heads were found to have been sent for slaughter and already sold, including some which was consumed. This has caused immense public anxiety and confusion in the market, specifically about the testing of animals. Of the above total, beef (or carcasses) from over 1,000 heads have been tested and only 74 heads were found to be contaminated with cesium exceeding the government?s permissible level for foods (500 Bq/kg). Cattle fed with contaminated rice straw have so far been found in 15 prefectures, including those in the Tohoku and Kanto regions. This is mainly due to the fact that contaminated rice straw was either produced locally and fed to animals within the prefecture or marketed to cattle farms in other prefectures through rice straw distributers. A majority of the contaminated straw-fed animals were shipped from four prefectures (Miyagi, Fukushima, Iwate, and Tochigi) in the Tohoku and Kanto regions. In July, the government placed these four prefectures under a temporary shipment suspension order, but on August 25, lifted this suspension based on a testing plan and feed control measure by each prefecture. Beef cattle raised in these four prefectures represented about 13 percent of Japan?s total 1.22 million heads shipped for slaughter in 2009. Although blanket testing is not mandated, many of the affected prefectures, as well as individual business entities (retails, food services) are reported to be initially arranging the screening and testing of beef for radiation at slaughter facilities and at distribution before shipment and sales. These actions, despite questions on feasibility and actual necessity, are primarily in response to extreme marketing difficulties. However, the testing protocol announced by the four prefectures were more in line with a guideline recommended by the Ministry of Heath to test all animals that were raised on farms that used contaminated rice straw and to test at one animal per farm, if raised on farms that did not use contaminated rice straw. The measures introduced by Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) in response to the incident so far are: as a primary response, tracing, testing and segregating beef/carcasses from animals fed with contaminated rice straws from the market, and baring all storage and handling costs to the meat industry; and as a secondary response, assisting each prefecture?s plan for radiation testing, baring costs incurred by prefectural meat council to buyout live animals coming to finishing age in the above four suspended prefectures (at an artificial average wholesale carcass auction price prevailed before the earthquake), providing low interest loans for cattle farmers to arrange extra feeding costs, and paying a lump sum of JP Yen 50,000 per head to all cattle farms in the 15 prefectures. All costs of this repayment program, currently estimated to be over JP 80 billion Yen, are to be paid later by the Tokyo Electric Power Company, owner of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant which was responsible for the amounts of radioactive materials that contaminated the Kanto and Tohoku regions. 2011 Beef Market Situation Update and Revised Outlook (New) - Food Poisoning Incident and Cesium Detection in Beef to Cause Consumption Slump in 2011 The positive consumption outlook for beef, projected at one percent growth in the last semiannual report (JA1005 dated March 4, 2011), has been reversed due to a series of food safety incidents in domestic product. These incidents practically turned this year?s outlook negative, especially in the second half (see detailed note at the bottom of the previous 2012 outlook section). The nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant led to radiation contamination in a wide variety of field-grown vegetables and fruits, pasture for fodder, milk, and beef. A July detection of cesium in domestic beef has temporarily put Japan?s beef consumption, both domestic, as well as imported, into an overall slump. With growing market anxieties prevailing since the July detection, it is increasingly likely that Japan?s annual total beef consumption in 2011 will slip slightly from the previous year, and is now projected down by one percent to an estimated 1.208 million MT. For January ? June, Japanese household consumption of beef was flat (See supplement table I-a, and I-b). Food service demand for beef was reportedly lethargic as consumers refrained from eating out after the earthquake. Also, sales of barbecue chains reportedly dipped over the May food poisoning incident. Consequently, market prices of domestic beef have weakened and monthly ending stocks have reportedly been on the rise in the second half, which made Post?s estimate of this year?s ending stock to climb, up by 17 percent from the year beginning at 151,000 MT (See supplement table III-a, IV-a). - Total Domestic Beef Production to Decline in 2011 A slight decline previously forecasted for Japan?s total beef production (down one percent) has now been revised and reduced even further, with a projected fall of two percent to 505,000 MT (or total slaughter of 1.195 million heads). Reduced cattle coming to finishing age and stalled shipments of cattle for slaughter in the incident- affected regions since July were taken into account for this revision. Recently publicized livestock inventory data by MAFF is also suggesting that Japan?s beef cattle sector will continue to contract, marking a four percent drop for the number of beef cattle raised at the year beginning of 2011 at 2.763 million heads (See supplement table VI). - Total Imports to Rise Only Modestly in 2011 For 2011, Japan?s total beef imports are projected to grow only by one percent from the previous year to 725,000 MT mainly capped by a slowdown in overall consumption and soaring import prices (Beef Cuts: up by one percent to 707,000 MT, and Prepared/Processed Products, down by 17 percent to 18,000 MT). According to several trade sources, a specific issue with imports is more to do with soaring import prices, therefore a possible slowdown may occur in the second half of 2011 which could effectively erase the first half gain. For January ? June in 2011, Japanese beef imports (total beef cuts) rose five percent from a year before to 336,354 MT. American beef surged, up 50 percent from last year, to 87,856 MT (average CIF price, up a modest six percent at USD 5,710 per MT) while Aussie beef fell five percent at 224,337 MT (average CIF price, up 15 percent at USD 5,036 per MT compared to the same period last year). Aussie beef prices have been increasing since 2010 and soared further in the first half of 2011 (See table 1, table 2-a, 2-b, 2-c, 2-d and 2-e). Although cheaper than American imports, current Australian offers have not been attractive to Japanese importers who claim that the price level does not match the quality offered. On an annual basis, it appears difficult for American beef in 2011 to sustain the pace it achieved in the first half, which was reportedly affected by rising U.S. offer prices, coupled with lower availability of EV qualified cattle for Japan (20 months of age or below) that occurs for the Fall and Winter seasons. Post is projecting Japanese imports of American beef in 2011 to grow by roughly 20 percent, reaching a 2006 record of 154,000 MT with its share expanded to 22 percent, a four percent gain from the previous year. However, due to the earlier-mentioned concerns on offer versus quality, Japanese imports of Aussie beef in 2011 are projected down by three percent to 476,000 MT with its share in the total imports (total beef cuts) to slip by three points to 67 percent. Not reflected in the PS&D table, Japan?s first half edible offal imports (tongue, liver, and intestines) also outpaced the previous year level, up 18 percent with the imports from the United States jumping by 47 percent. However, these offal imports are expected to slow in the second half partially affected by the sales slowdown occurring in the barbecue restaurant chains. 2012 Pork Market Outlook (New) - Rebounding Domestic Pork Supply to Modestly Cut Imports in 2012 Japan?s total pork consumption in 2012 is projected to hold steady at a relatively high level. However, an improved beef market outlook may become a factor, trimming pork consumption slightly in 2012, thus the level is projected marginally lower from the previous year at 2.501 million MT given relatively stable demand projected in the household, food service, and processing sectors. Total pork production in 2012 is projected up by two percent to 1.28 million MT (or total slaughter of 16.6 million heads) rebounding from the decline that was forecasted for the previous year, reflecting the rebuilding of sow inventories in major swine production regions, namely Kyushu, Kanto, and Tohoku (See the 2011 Situation Summary and Revised Outlook Section), where 60 percent of the nation?s hogs are raised. However, in 2012, this anticipated increase of domestic pork supply is expected to curtail imports, which is projected down by one percent from the previous year to 1.222 million MT (Pork Cuts: down by one percent to one million MT and Prepared/Processed Products: unchanged at 221,000 MT). Increased distribution of domestic pork cuts priced lower than last year will likely give a better presence to fresh domestic cuts, recapturing some of its retail share lost to the imported chilled cuts, possibly impacting the sales of American and Canadian chilled cuts in 2012. The United States will stay as Japan?s top pork supplier claiming an estimated share in the total imports at 39 percent (pork cuts) and at 65 percent (prepared and processed products, mostly seasoned ground pork), which were unchanged from the previous year. 2011 Pork Market Situation Update and Revised Outlook (New) - High Level Demand for Pork to Continue in 2011 At this time, the market situation suggests another good year for pork in 2011. The total consumption estimate is raised slightly from Post?s previous semiannual outlook forecast and is now projected to reach a seven year high of 2.50 million MT. This projected increase is largely based on a modest rise in anticipated Japanese retail demand for pork, particularly helped by modest growth in the household consumption of pork, as well as processed products which are expected to sustain through the year while holding food service and processing utilization relatively constant. More Japanese retail and food service users have been turning to imported chilled cuts as an alternative source of supply due to the reduced distribution of domestic fresh/chilled cuts that occurred in the first half of 2011. For Jan. ? Jun of 2011, Japanese household consumption of pork and processed products were; pork (up three percent), ground meat (unchanged), ham (up three percent), sausage (down two percent) and bacon (up three percent), beef (unchanged), chicken (down seven percent). The latest manufacturing data for first half processed meat product production was reportedly up 1.5 percent. No positive outlook has been generated from the sluggishly performing food service sector which has been hard hit by the continued economic slump, as well as the earthquake (See supplement tables I-a, I-b). With the reported overall consumption slowdown for red meat and poultry (broiler meat) entering into the second half of the year, the above gain for first half total consumption could be moderately offset on an annual basis. USMEF promotion activities have been effective in educating Japanese users/consumers to the appealing and competitive qualities of American chilled pork. - Domestic Pork Outputs to Lower, Resulting in Higher Prices in 2011 In this report, Post?s previous projection for slightly lower national pork outputs in 2011 made in the last semiannual report has been revised and is now projected to be even lower, down by three percent to 1.255 million MT. The above revision is based on recently publicized sow inventory data by MAFF, which was also down at the same rate of 901,000 heads. The number of hogs raised in the nation at the year?s beginning was also down at 8.186 million heads (See supplement table VI). The above registered decline in the national sow and hog inventory data is attributed to the following factors; i.e. 1) reduced farrowing rate negatively affected by a long and severe hot summer in 2010, 2) slower than anticipated recovery of swine inventories in the Miyazaki prefecture, the nation?s second largest hog producing state, after the massive Foot and Mouse Disease (FMD) outbreak in 2010, and 3) temporarily stalled hog production and slaughter in the Tohoku and Kanto regions due to the earthquake this year. In the Tokyo market, tight supplies of domestic pork have caused average wholesale market prices of domestic hog carcasses to strengthen during the first half (Excellent grade - up eight percent at JP Yen 486, Medium grade: up 10 percent at JP Yen 450). Likewise, wholesale prices of pork cuts have been higher than the last year, making already low-priced imported chilled cuts even more competitive and attractive, partially eroding the predominant share held by domestic fresh cuts in the retail sector (See supplement tables V- a, V-b). - Imported Chilled Pork to Increase Market Presence in 2011 The prevailing situation has been providing a good market opportunity for the United States and Canada, two major chilled pork suppliers to Japan, to advance their share and presence. On the other hand, Japan?s processing demand for imported frozen raw material cuts, are expected not to be significantly high for the previous six months and instead, processing demand has been met by existing stock run down (See supplement table III-b). Based on the above information and first half results, Japan?s total pork imports in 2011 are projected to grow by two percent from last year to reach around 1.235 million MT (Pork Cuts: up four percent to 1.014 million MT, and Prepared and Processed Products: down three percent to 221,000 MT). Moderately lower year ending stocks are also forecasted, down by seven percent to an estimated 202,000 MT. For Jan. ? Jun, total pork imports were up three percent from the previous year at 512,703 MT (Chilled cuts: up 12 percent at 163,023 MT, Frozen Cuts: down two percent at 349,681 MT). Imports of prepared and processed products in the same period were up only one percent at 110,258 MT. However, not reflected in the PS&D table, Japan?s fast growing sausage imports in recent years appears to have slowed in the first half, down one percent at 20,992 MT on customs clearance basis, most probably affected by the sluggish food service performance (See table 3-a, 3-b, 3-c, 3-d and table 4). While appreciating the first half result, trade sources are predicting that the growth pace of chilled cuts may not hold with a surplus risk and market price deterioration in case the current level import exceeding 20,000 MT per month were to last. For specific products, loin items are estimated to be already somewhat oversupplied and belly is in short supply and has good demand. Table 1: Australian Beef Exports to Japan Unit: Metric Ton (Shipped Weight Basis) Annual 2009 2010 % Chg 2010 Share 2010 2011 2010 Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/July Jan/July Jan/July Chilled Beef 168,928 155,536 -8% 100% 91,316 80,267 -12% Grass 55,217 51,775 -6% 33% 31,746 27,381 -14% Grain fed 113,711 103,761 -9% 67% 59,570 52,886 -11% Frozen Beef 187,638 200,675 7% 100% 113,054 110,215 -3% Grass 146,162 150,074 3% 75% 86,743 80,874 -7% Grain fed 41,476 50,601 22% 25% 26,311 29,341 12% TOTAL 356,566 356,211 0% 100% 204,370 190,483 -7% Grass 201,379 201,850 0% 57% 118,489 108,255 -9% Grain fed 155,187 154,362 -1% 43% 85,881 82,227 -4% Source: Meat Livestock Australia (Compiled by post) Table 2-a): Japanese Beef Imports, Chilled and Frozen Combined YTD Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 % Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 458,024 481,136 499,531 3.8% 100% 228,447 240,253 5.2% Australia MT 358,229 363,907 351,118 -3.5% 70% 168,547 160,241 -4.9% United States MT 54,109 69,192 91,618 32.4% 18% 34,539 51,680 49.6% New Zealand MT 30,792 29,558 31,584 6.9% 6% 17,235 16,781 -2.6% Canada MT 4,712 8,527 12,926 51.6% 3% 3,437 3,303 -3.9% Mexico MT 9,341 9,629 11,938 24.0% 2% 4,568 7,998 75.1% Others MT 841 323 347 7.4% 0% 121 250 106.6% Source: Global Trade Atlas Table 2-b): Japanese Beef Imports, Chilled Beef Total YTD Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 % Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 199,485 212,727 211,445 -0.6% 100% 102,243 104,210 1.9% Australia MT 159,157 168,577 155,036 -8.0% 73% 76,760 71,439 -6.9% United States MT 31,142 34,535 44,130 27.8% 21% 19,392 27,093 39.7% New Zealand MT 5,769 6,057 7,316 20.8% 3% 3,745 3,770 0.7% Canada MT 2,032 2,472 3,730 50.9% 2% 1,782 1,261 -29.2% Others MT 1,385 1,086 1,233 13.5% 1% 564 647 14.7% Source: Global Trade Atlas Table 2-c): Japanese Beef Imports, Frozen Beef Total YTD Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 %Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 258,540 268,408 288,086 7.3% 100% 126,204 136,042 7.8% Australia MT 199,072 195,330 196,082 0.4% 68% 91,788 88,802 -3.3% United States MT 22,967 34,658 47,488 37.0% 16% 15,147 24,587 62.3% New Zealand MT 25,023 23,501 24,268 3.3% 8% 13,490 13,011 -3.6% Mexico MT 7,959 8,543 10,705 25.3% 4% 4,004 7,351 83.6% Canada MT 2,680 6,055 9,196 51.9% 3% 1,655 2,042 23.4% Others MT 839 321 347 8.1% 0% 120 249 107.5% Source: Global Trade Atlas Table 2-d): Japanese Beef Imports, Prepared and Processed Products YTD Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 %Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 9,883 12,901 11,995 -7.0% 100% 5,970 6,113 2.4% Australia MT 4,335 5,802 5,677 -2.2% 47% 2,892 2,839 -1.8% Brazil MT 2,500 4,393 2,994 -31.8% 25% 1,656 1,440 -13.0% China MT 1,514 1,831 2,525 37.9% 21% 1,036 1,497 44.5% New Zealand MT 1,189 614 498 -18.9% 4% 235 225 -4.3% Others MT 345 261 301 15.3% 3% 151 112 -25.8% Source: Global Trade Atlas Table 2-e): Japanese Beef Imports, Edible Meat and Offal (Liver, Tongue, and Intestines) Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 %Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 35,259 38,454 41,763 8.6% 100% 18,155 21,405 17.9% Australia MT 19,102 19,942 18,504 -7.2% 44% 8,336 8,923 7.0% United States MT 7,162 9,723 13,899 42.9% 33% 5,324 7,814 46.8% New Zealand MT 4,373 4,255 3,839 -9.8% 9% 2,254 2,202 -2.3% Mexico MT 2,212 1,791 2,335 30.4% 6% 1,071 1,293 20.7% Canada MT 912 1,741 2,146 23.3% 5% 633 745 17.7% Others MT 1,498 1,002 1,040 3.8% 2% 537 428 -20.3% Source: Global Trade Atlas Table 3-a): Japanese Pork Imports, Chilled and Frozen Combined YTD Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 %Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 817,691 702,938 753,027 7.1% 100% 383,094 394,387 2.9% United States MT 336,993 288,667 298,347 3.4% 40% 154,189 163,028 5.7% Canada MT 174,686 172,373 178,648 3.6% 24% 97,859 83,469 -14.7% Denmark MT 159,784 122,923 133,586 8.7% 18% 65,694 64,761 -1.4% Mexico MT 56,551 43,684 40,855 -6.5% 5% 19,750 18,536 -6.1% Chile MT 23,777 26,172 24,507 -6.4% 3% 12,036 14,255 18.4% Hungary MT 10,206 10,094 21,003 108.1% 3% 9,643 8,666 -10.1% Spain MT 16,102 7,871 14,556 84.9% 2% 5,956 12,080 102.8% France MT 7,205 8,023 11,416 42.3% 2% 5,870 6,272 6.8% Netherlands MT 10,089 9,397 7,914 -15.8% 1% 3,908 3,131 -19.9% Austria MT 8,116 5,082 7,547 48.5% 1% 2,197 4,698 113.8% Ireland MT 3,511 939 5,107 443.9% 1% 1,649 5,315 222.3% Others MT 10,671 7,713 9,541 23.7% 1% 4,343 10,176 134.3% Source: Global Trade Atlas Table 3-b): Japanese Pork Imports, Chilled Pork Total YTD Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 %Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 267,968 233,738 231,365 -1.0% 100% 112,220 125,402 11.7% United States MT 188,454 169,935 167,203 -1.6% 72% 81,430 90,537 11.2% Canada MT 63,904 52,860 54,434 3.0% 24% 25,845 30,229 17.0% Mexico MT 14,928 10,640 9,397 -11.7% 4% 4,784 4,510 -5.7% Others MT 682 303 331 9.2% 0% 161 126 -21.7% Source: Global Trade Atlas Table 3-c): Japanese Pork Imports, Frozen Pork Total YTD Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 %Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 549,723 469,200 521,662 11.2% 100% 270,875 268,985 -0.7% Denmark MT 159,703 122,923 133,513 8.6% 26% 65,694 64,761 -1.4% United States MT 148,539 118,731 131,144 10.5% 25% 72,759 72,491 -0.4% Canada MT 110,782 119,513 124,214 3.9% 24% 72,013 53,240 -26.1% Mexico MT 41,623 33,043 31,458 -4.8% 6% 14,966 14,026 -6.3% Chile MT 23,777 26,172 24,507 -6.4% 5% 12,036 14,244 18.3% Hungary MT 10,206 10,094 21,003 108.1% 4% 9,643 8,666 -10.1% Spain MT 16,054 7,841 14,531 85.3% 3% 5,941 12,065 103.1% France MT 7,173 8,006 11,397 42.4% 2% 5,860 6,260 6.8% Netherlands MT 10,089 9,397 7,914 -15.8% 2% 3,908 3,131 -19.9% Austria MT 8,116 5,082 7,547 48.5% 1% 2,197 4,698 113.8% Ireland MT 3,511 939 5,107 443.9% 1% 1,649 5,315 222.3% Poland MT 3,644 2,786 3,792 36.1% 1% 1,610 8,047 399.8% Others MT 6,506 4,673 5,535 18.4% 1% 2,599 2,041 -21.5% Source: Global Trade Atlas Table 3-d): Japanese Pork Imports, Prepared and Processed Products YTD Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 %Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 157,308 172,599 168,869 -2.2% 100% 84,385 84,814 0.5% United States MT 94,231 111,547 104,274 -6.5% 62% 52,541 55,149 5.0% China MT 33,180 27,872 27,815 -0.2% 16% 12,724 11,954 -6.1% Canada MT 12,334 14,728 16,572 12.5% 10% 9,283 7,308 -21.3% Thailand MT 6,486 5,579 7,362 32.0% 4% 3,397 3,333 -1.9% Chile MT 2,417 4,384 4,848 10.6% 3% 2,533 2,778 9.7% Denmark MT 4,138 3,368 3,096 -8.1% 2% 1,556 1,896 21.9% Others MT 4,522 5,121 4,902 -4.3% 3% 2,351 2,396 1.9% Source: Global Trade Atlas Table 4: Japanese Sausage Imports YTD Annual Series: 2006 - 2010, Year To Date: 06/2010 & 06/2011 Quantity Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2008 2009 2010 %Change 2010 Share (%) 06/2010 06/2011 %Change World MT 36,810 40,735 43,347 6.4% 100% 21,254 20,992 -1.2% China MT 20,775 20,645 23,244 12.6% 54% 11,149 10,822 -2.9% United States MT 7,786 9,551 8,711 -8.8% 20% 4,576 4,064 -11.2% Thailand MT 2,783 5,083 5,425 6.7% 13% 2,638 3,518 33.4% Others MT 5,466 5,456 5,967 9.4% 14% 2,891 2,588 -10.5% Source: Global Trade Atlas Supplemental Tables I-a): Monthly Average Quantities and Expenditures on Meat and Meat Products per Household YTD Beef Pork Chicken Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity (JP Yen) (gram) (JP Yen) (gram) (JP Yen) (gram) CY 2008 20,885 6,785 25,555 18,305 12,830 12,657 CY 2009 20,166 7,045 24,790 18,639 12,614 13,649 % Chg. -3% 4% -3% 2% -2% 8% CY 2010 18,965 6,933 23,959 18,501 12,387 13,755 % Chg. -6% -2% -3% -1% -2% 1% CY 2011 Jan. 1,550 -2% 552 -1% 2,072 3% 1,614 5% 1,042 -2% 1,128 -4% Feb. 1,385 2% 515 -4% 1,980 2% 1,533 0% 932 -8% 1,028 -11% Mar. 1,448 -5% 571 -2% 2,106 5% 1,650 5% 1,024 -2% 1,148 -2% Apr. 1,529 5% 566 1% 2,025 5% 1,521 1% 970 -5% 986 -14% May 1,572 0% 581 0% 2,004 1% 1,523 1% 1,030 2% 1,086 -4% Jun. 1,478 10% 570 9% 1,963 5% 1,482 3% 993 5% 1,022 -6% CY 2010 Jan/Jun 8,843 3,339 11,726 9,090 6,099 6,875 CY 2011 Jan/Jun 8,962 3,355 12,150 9,323 5,991 6,398 % Chg. 1% 0% 4% 3% -2% -7% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau (Compiled by Post) I-b): Monthly Average Quantities and Expenditures on Meat and Meat Products per Household YTD Ground Meat Ham Sausage Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity (JP Yen) (gram) (JP Yen) (gram) (JP Yen) (gram) CY 2008 2,041 1,795 5,870 2,887 7,212 5,175 CY 2009 2,045 1,888 5,670 2,947 7,197 5,324 % Chg. 0% 5% -3% 2% 0% 3% CY 2010 1,932 1,853 5,618 2,993 7,067 5,434 % Chg. -6% -2% -1% 2% -2% 2% CY 2011 - - - Jan. 156 0% 144 -5% 319 1% 175 1% 523 3% 402 5% Feb. 160 0% - - - 160 0% 299 1% 165 527 399 1% 2% 3% Mar. 170 1% 163 2% 345 2% 196 8% 599 0% 456 0% Apr. 170 3% 155 -1% 352 4% 195 5% 608 2% - 456 3% May 186 7% 174 7% 395 2% 219 4% 632 1% 494 6% - - Jun. 173 -1% 167 -3% 454 4% 575 0% 431 1% 264 5% CY 2010 Jan/Jun 998 963 2,138 1,173 3,476 2,687 CY 2011 Jan/Jun 1,015 963 2,164 1,214 3,464 2,638 % Chg. 2% 0% 1% 3% 0% -2% Bacon Expenditure Quantity (JP Yen) (gram ) CY 2008 2,426 1,369 CY 2009 2,391 1,379 % Chg. -1% 1% CY 2010 2,275 1,380 % Chg. -5% 0% Bacon CY 2011 Jan. 166 -3% 95 -7% Feb. 486 163% 114 2% Mar. 204 0% 132 9% Apr. 204 7% 123 9% May 217 9% 131 5% Jun. 218 15% 133 13% CY 2010 Jan/Jun 1,140 691 CY 2011 Jan/Jun 1,495 728 % Chg. 31% 5% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau (Compiled by Post) II-a): Japanese Beef Safeguard Monitor, JFY 2010 ? JFY 2011 YTD Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) JFY 2010 (April 2010 ? March 2011) Chilled Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 74,339 55,914 20,756 16,728 18,430 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 152,455 112,471 19,852 19,673 17,032 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 230,642 164,813 15,991 18,162 18,189 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 292,354 213,629 13,216 14,728 20,872 Frozen Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 75,072 67,636 23,470 19,306 24,860 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 160,040 149,982 23,099 25,217 34,030 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 246,871 226,039 17,063 31,776 27,218 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 323,924 292,303 22,545 21,651 22,068 JFY 2011 (April 2011 ? March 2012) Chilled Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 74,339 55,274 18,596 17,148 19,530 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 152,456 55,274 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 230,642 55,274 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 292,355 55,274 Frozen Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 79,135 68,169 29,419 22,829 15,921 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 175,480 68,169 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 264,467 68,169 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 341,996 68,169 Source: Ministry of Finance Note: For JFY 2006 - JFY 2010 beef SG trigger levels, the levels are determined based on a special measure by GOJ as per our voluntary report. II-b): Japanese Pork Safeguard Monitor, JFY 2009 ? JFY 2011 YTD Unit: Metric Ton (Customs Clearance Basis) JFY 2009 (April 2009 ? March 2010) Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 233,663 172,956 59,527 56,592 56,837 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 448,131 324,982 57,549 48,164 46,313 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 666,791 480,348 50,686 48,084 56,596 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 871,699 638,968 52,220 47,701 58,699 JFY 2010 (April 2010 ? March 2011) Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 224,488 198,319 66,192 60,274 71,853 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 434,398 376,577 65,680 61,408 51,170 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 645,081 539,862 51,964 55,805 55,516 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 839,812 714,658 53,936 58,265 62,595 JFY 2011 (April 2011 ? March 2012) Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 228,878 192,076 67,802 59,008 65,266 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept..) 437,636 192,076 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 641,388 192,076 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 838,343 192,076 Source: Ministry of Finance III-a): Monthly Ending Beef Stocks, Frozen, CY 2007 ? 2011 YTD Unit: Metric Ton (Carcass Equivalent) 2007 2008 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. Jan. 106,942 101,830 114,384 12% 109,507 -4% 121,460 11% Feb. 104,017 100,194 115,133 15% 101,847 -12% 115,384 13% Mar. 106,968 101,938 110,956 9% 96,699 -13% 120,288 24% Apr. 103,488 98,662 101,165 3% 99,306 -2% 114,618 15% May 108,269 103,544 101,452 -2% 102,899 1% 117,349 14% Jun. 112,503 104,682 108,608 4% 108,482 -0% 128,628 19% Jul. 113,320 112,221 117,881 5% 114,444 -3% Aug. 113,883 116,736 120,725 3% 124,660 3% Sept.. 112,468 122,966 122,319 -1% 128,486 5% Oct. 108,665 123,063 122,452 -0% 124,109 1% Nov. 106,582 120,012 124,414 4% 128,394 3% Dec. 110,641 116,134 119,342 3% 128,677 8% Source: ALIC Monthly Statistics III-b): Monthly Ending Pork Stocks, Frozen, CY 2007 ? 2011 YTD Unit: Metric Ton (Carcass Equivalent) Month/Year 2007 2008 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. Jan. 229,237 215,210 242,187 13% 222,352 -8% 221,793 -0% Feb. 243,250 213,395 247,941 16% 218,429 -12% 229,346 5% Mar. 240,609 221,711 252,377 14% 223,313 -12% 226,091 1% Apr. 236,846 238,494 256,396 8% 227,208 -11% 225,358 -1% May 251,245 250,532 265,288 6% 240,895 -9% 233,488 -3% Jun. 244,873 242,774 268,905 11% 261,197 -3% 235,265 -10% Jul. 242,336 234,295 261,222 11% 269,677 3% Aug. 244,132 240,890 248,970 3% 270,292 9% Sept.. 232,467 240,707 237,154 -1% 258,098 9% Oct. 226,330 240,872 228,019 -5% 242,017 6% Nov. 211,637 232,638 222,256 -4% 227,482 2% Dec. 207,802 237,377 217,071 -9% 218,404 1% Source: ALIC Monthly Statistics IV-a): Average Wholesale Price of Domestic Medium Graded Beef Steer Carcass by Breed, CY 2008 ? 2009 (Quarterly), Tokyo Market Unit: JP Yen/Kg. WAGYU STEER A-3 GRADE Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,807 1,639 1,577 1,575 1,650 2009 1,542 1,529 1,462 1,535 1,517 %chg -15% -7% -7% -3% -8% 2010 1,460 1,469 1,479 1,549 1,489 %chg -5% -4% 1% 1% -2% 2011 1,530 1,440 %chg 5% -2% WAGYU STEER A-2 GRADE Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,539 1,339 1,265 1,197 1,335 2009 1,267 1,302 1,196 1,202 1,242 %chg -18% -3% -5% 0% -7% 2010 1,223 1,291 1,300 1,351 1,291 %chg -4% -1% 9% 12% 4% 2011 1,362 1,260 %chg 11% -2% Holstein Steer B-2 Grade Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 768 801 728 788 771 2009 807 763 736 754 765 %chg 5% -5% 1% -4% -1% 2010 697 685 635 648 666 %chg -14% -10% -14% -14% -13% 2011 652 648 %chg -6% -5% F1 Cross Breed Steer B-3 GRADE Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,287 1,256 1,211 1,238 1,252 2009 1,140 1,138 1,117 1,151 1,140 %chg -11% -9% -8% -7% -9% 2010 1,156 1,149 1,150 1,274 1,173 %chg 1% 1% 3% 11% 3% 2011 1,202 1,182 %chg 4% 3% F1 Cross Breed Steer B-2 GRADE Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,085 1,064 977 956 1,020 2009 949 970 885 902 927 %chg -13% -9% -9% -6% -9% 2010 929 1,031 1,000 1,144 1,026 %chg -2% 6% 13% 27% 11% 2011 1,112 1,076 %chg 20% 4% Source: ALIC Monthly Note: Quarterly average is compiled by post based on monthly publicized ALIC data and 2011 data are still preliminary. IV-b): Average Wholesale Price of Imported Beef, Selected Chilled Cuts, CY 2008 ? 2011 (Quarterly) Unit: JP Yen per Kg. Full Set, Aussie Beef, Chilled, (Short Grain Fed) Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,017 1,004 971 876 967 2009 730 746 755 743 744 %chg -28% -26% -22% -15% -23% 2010 756 786 715 768 756 %chg 4% 5% -5% 3% 2% 2011 842 803 %chg 11% 2% Full Set, Aussie Beef, Chilled, (Grass Fed) Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 856 771 846 739 803 2009 638 630 648 677 648 %chg -25% -18% -23% -8% -19% 2010 719 688 637 694 684 %chg 13% 9% -2% 3% 6% 2011 767 703 %chg 7% 2% Navel-end Brisket, Aussie Beef, Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 652 598 728 622 650 2009 573 640 604 576 598 %chg -12% 7% -17% -7% -8% 2010 597 552 548 556 563 %chg 4% -14% -9% -3% -6% 2011 586 552 %chg -2% 0% Strip Loin, Aussie Beef, Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,452 1,175 1,248 980 1,214 2009 1,042 989 1,068 1,078 1,044 %chg -28% -16% -14% 10% -14% 2010 1,317 1,158 975 981 1,108 %chg 26% 17% -9% -9% 6% 2011 1,148 1,008 %chg -13% -13% Chuck Rib, US Beef, Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,473 1,487 1,419 1,342 1,430 2009 1,291 1,289 1,116 1,007 1,176 %chg -12% -13% -21% -25% -18% 2010 1,024 1,186 1,139 1,053 1,101 %chg -21% -8% 2% 5% -6% 2011 1,087 1,111 %chg 6% -6% Chuck Eye, US Beef, Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 915 876 887 896 894 2009 799 732 703 725 740 %chg -13% -16% -21% -19% -17% 2010 743 758 718 755 743 %chg -7% 4% 2% 4% 1% 2011 814 739 %chg 10% -3% Source: ALIC Monthly Note: Quarterly average is compiled by post based on monthly publicized ALIC data and 2011 data are still preliminary. IV-c): Average Wholesale Price of Imported Beef, Selected Frozen Cuts, CY 2008 ? 2011 Quarterly) Unit: JP Yen per Kg. Chuck & Blade, Aussie Beef, Frozen Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 559 575 643 531 577 2009 473 458 469 478 470 %chg -15% -20% -27% -10% -19% 2010 485 530 522 539 519 %chg 2% 16% 11% 13% 11% 2011 583 582 %chg 20% 10% Top Side, Aussie Beef, Frozen Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 675 675 730 656 684 2009 538 542 569 581 557 %chg -20% -20% -22% -11% -18% 2010 572 577 563 595 577 %chg 6% 7% -1% 2% 3% 2011 662 633 %chg 16% 10% Trimming, Aussie Beef, Frozen Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 446 517 608 464 509 2009 385 396 391 376 387 %chg -14% -23% -36% -19% -24% 2010 398 452 431 441 431 %chg 3% 14% 10% 17% 11% 2011 493 478 %chg 24% 6% Source: ALIC Monthly Note: Quarterly average is compiled by post based on monthly publicized ALIC data and 2011 data are still preliminary. V-a): Average Wholesale Price of Domestic Pork Carcass, CY 2008 ? 2011 (Quarterly), Tokyo Market Unit: Yen per Kg. Excellent Grade Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 532 571 559 428 522 2009 409 471 414 417 428 % Chg -23% -17% -26% -3% -18% 2010 419 485 495 446 461 % Chg 3% 3% 20% 7% 8% 2011 466 506 % Chg 11% 4% Medium Grade Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 499 549 521 397 492 2009 380 444 380 377 395 % Chg -24% -19% -27% -5% -20% 2010 371 444 446 405 417 % Chg -2% -0% 17% 8% 5% 2011 425 475 % Chg 14% 7% Source: ALIC Monthly Note: Quarterly average is compiled by post based on monthly publicized ALIC data and 2011 data are still preliminary. V-b): Average Wholesale Price of Domestic Pork Cuts, CY 2008 ? 2011 (Quarterly) Unit: JPY per Kg. Full set: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 736 795 805 620 739 2009 599 651 608 584 610 %chg -19% -18% -25% -6% -17% 2010 606 669 716 640 658 %chg 1% 3% 18% 10% 8% 2011 685 729 %chg 13% 9% Picnic: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 564 630 630 495 580 2009 448 480 439 408 444 %chg -21% -24% -30% -18% -24% 2010 422 483 494 454 463 %chg -6% 1% 13% 11% 4% 2011 498 550 %chg 18% 14% Shoulder Loin: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 969 999 1,031 848 962 2009 785 822 779 796 795 %chg -19% -18% -24% -6% -17% 2010 781 823 892 874 842 %chg -1% 0% 15% 10% 6% 2011 874 875 %chg 12% 6% Loin: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,018 1,042 1,073 872 1,001 2009 826 887 837 829 845 %chg -19% -15% -22% -5% -16% 2010 812 879 951 906 887 %chg -2% -1% 14% 9% 5% 2011 917 915 %chg 13% 4% Tender Loin: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,148 1,194 1,215 986 1,136 2009 968 1,032 971 931 975 %chg -16% -14% -20% -6% -14% 2010 934 975 997 932 959 %chg -4% -5% 3% 0% -2% 2011 963 996 %chg 3% 2% Belly: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 924 932 930 780 891 2009 743 752 694 741 733 %chg -20% -19% -25% -5% -18% 2010 763 786 815 861 806 %chg 3% 4% 17% 16% 10% 2011 878 868 %chg 15% 10% Ham: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 594 657 652 518 605 2009 478 519 474 437 477 %chg -20% -21% -27% -16% -21% 2010 449 519 524 479 493 %chg -6% -0% 11% 9% 3% 2011 516 569 %chg 15% 10% Source: ALIC Monthly Note: Quarterly average is compiled by post based on monthly publicized ALIC data and 2011 data are still preliminary. V-c): Average Wholesale Price of Imported Pork, Selected Chilled Cuts (Quarterly) Unit: JP Yen per Kg. Loin, US: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 626 622 643 625 629 2009 621 605 610 607 611 %chg -1% -3% -5% -3% -3% 2010 611 596 604 599 603 %chg -2% -1% -1% -1% -1% 2011 601 597 %chg -2% 0% Loin, Canada: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 656 650 671 650 657 2009 631 617 624 625 624 %chg -4% -5% -7% -4% -5% 2010 621 614 622 617 618 %chg -2% -1% -0% -1% -1% 2011 620 618 %chg -0% 1% Tender Loin, US: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 745 751 852 763 778 2009 736 724 711 698 717 %chg -1% -4% -17% -9% -8% 2010 696 697 689 687 692 %chg -5% -4% -3% -2% -3% 2011 689 692 %chg -1% -1% Tender Loin, Canada: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 846 845 884 841 854 2009 796 787 769 776 782 %chg -6% -7% -13% -8% -8% 2010 766 767 775 777 771 %chg -4% -3% 1% 0% -1% 2011 781 774 %chg 2% 1% Shoulder Loin, US: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 652 648 661 643 651 2009 631 617 624 625 624 %chg -3% -5% -6% -3% -4% 2010 621 612 621 623 619 %chg -2% -1% -0% -0% -1% 2011 619 632 %chg -0% 3% Shoulder Loin, Canada: Chilled Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 683 676 698 673 682 2009 648 649 647 645 647 %chg -5% -4% -7% -4% -5% 2010 638 635 641 644 640 %chg -1% -2% -1% -0% -1% 2011 642 654 %chg 1% 3% Source: ALIC Monthly Note: Quarterly average is compiled by post based on monthly publicized ALIC data and 2011 data are still preliminary. V-d): Average Wholesale Price of Imported Pork, Selected Chilled Cuts (Quarterly) Unit: JP Yen per Kg. Loin, Canada: Frozen Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 592 595 612 621 605 2009 587 576 510 478 538 %chg -1% -3% -17% -23% -11% 2010 476 541 532 544 523 %chg -19% -6% 4% 14% -3% 2011 521 526 %chg 9% -3% Loin, Denmark: Frozen Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 629 634 649 662 644 2009 653 647 640 632 643 %chg 4% 2% -1% -4% -0% 2010 664 676 687 687 679 %chg 2% 5% 7% 9% 6% 2011 616 678 %chg -7% 0% Tender Loin, US: Frozen Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 690 673 672 678 678 2009 660 659 653 643 654 %chg -4% -2% -3% -5% -4% 2010 632 630 632 638 633 %chg -4% -4% -3% -1% -3% 2011 622 643 %chg -1% 2% Tender Loin, Canada: Frozen Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 724 722 706 725 719 2009 708 702 680 677 692 %chg -2% -3% -4% -7% -4% 2010 664 667 660 658 662 %chg -6% -5% -3% -3% -4% 2011 649 670 0 0 330 %chg -2% 0% -100% -100% -50% Tender Loin, Denmark: Frozen Year/Month 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 696 691 687 692 692 2009 753 744 721 701 730 %chg 8% 8% 5% 1% 6% 2010 697 730 726 706 715 %chg -7% -2% 1% 1% -2% 2011 698 715 %chg 0% -2% Source: ALIC Monthly Note: Quarterly average is compiled by post based on monthly publicized ALIC data and 2011 data are still preliminary. VI: Japanese Year Beginning Cattle and Swine Inventory Historic Series of Japanese Cattle Inventory 2007 2008 %chg 2009 %chg 2010 %chg 2011 %chg Number of Beef Cattle Farms (1,000 farms) 82.3 80.4 -2% 77.3 -4% 74.4 -4% 69.6 -6% Beef Cattle (Wagyu and Other) (1,000 heads) 1,742 1,823 5% 1,889 4% 1,924 2% 1,868 -3% Dairy Cattle for Beef (1,000 heads) 460 431 -6% 431 0% 421 -2% 412 -2% F-1 Cross Bred Cattle (1,000 heads) 604 636 5% 636 0% 547 -14% 483 -12% 'Sub Total Dairy & F-1 Cattle for Beef (1,000 heads) 1,064 1,067 0% 1,067 0% 968 -9% 895 -8% Total Beef Cattle Raised (1,000 heads) 2,806 2,890 3% 2,956 2% 2,892 -2% 2,763 -4% Number of Dairy Cattle Farms (Female) (1,000 farms) 25.4 24.4 -4% 23.1 -5% 21.9 -5% 21.0 -4% Total Dairy Cow and Heifer Raised (1,000 heads) 1,592 1,533 -4% 1,500 -2% 1,484 -1% 1,467 -1% Total Cattle Raised (1,000 heads) 4,398 4,423 1% 4,456 1% 4,376 -2% 4,230 -3% Historic Series of Japanese Swine Inventory 2007 2008 %chg 2009 %chg 2010 %chg 2011 %chg Number of Swine Farms (1,000 farms) 7.6 7.2 -5% 6.9 -4% N.A. 6.0 Number of Hogs Raised for Fattening (1,000 heads) 8,119 8,117 0% 8,220 1% N.A. 8,186 Total Swine Raised (1,000 heads) 9,759 9,745 0% 9,899 2% N.A. 9,768 Source: MAFF Livestock Statistics Due to Agriculture Census conducted every five year, 2010 national swine inventory data were not announced.
Posted: 31 October 2011

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