Livestock and Products Semi-annual

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Japan

Posted on: 21 Apr 2012

For 2012, continued import growth is expected to help raise Japan's overall beef consumption.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: April 10, 2012 GAIN Report Number: JA 1008 Japan Livestock and Products Semi-annual 2012 Japan Market Outlook Approved By: Benjamin Petlock, Agricultural Attaché Prepared By: Kakuyu Obara, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: For 2012, continued import growth is expected to help raise Japan?s overall beef consumption. In addition, greater demand for medium grade grain fed beef will continue to support modest growth in American beef imports. However, a shift from pork to beef may somewhat lower total pork consumption. Total pork imports are expected to be modestly lower due to competition with increasing domestic outputs. Commodities: Animal Numbers, Cattle Meat, Beef and Veal Animal Numbers, Swine Meat, Swine Production: Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics Live Cattle PS&D Table Animal Numbers, Cattle Japan 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Total Cattle Beg. Stks 4,376 4,376 4,230 4,230 4,150 4,170 Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks 830 830 805 805 800 800 Beef Cows Beg. Stocks 675 675 668 668 660 660 Production (Calf Crop) 1,359 1,359 1,340 1,340 1,330 1,330 Total Imports 16 16 12 12 15 13 Total Supply 5,751 5,751 5,582 5,582 5,495 5,513 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cow Slaughter 546 546 535 531 530 530 Calf Slaughter 9 10 10 8 10 10 Other Slaughter 663 663 650 640 640 635 Total Slaughter 1,218 1,219 1,195 1,179 1,180 1,175 Loss 303 302 237 233 215 228 Ending Inventories 4,230 4,230 4,150 4,170 4,100 4,110 Total Distribution 5,751 5,751 5,582 5,582 5,495 5,513 1000 HEAD, PERCENT Beef and Veal PS&D Table Meat, Beef and Veal Japan 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Slaughter (Reference) 1,218 1,219 1,195 1,179 1,180 1,175 Beginning Stocks 119 119 129 129 151 136 Production 515 515 505 501 500 500 Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Imports 721 721 725 745 725 756 Total Imports 721 721 725 745 725 756 Total Supply 1,355 1,355 1,359 1,375 1,376 1,392 Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Exports 1 1 0 0 1 1 Total Exports 1 1 0 0 1 1 Human Dom. Consumption 1,225 1,225 1,208 1,239 1,233 1,256 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 1,225 1,225 1,208 1,239 1,233 1,256 Ending Stocks 129 129 151 136 142 135 Total Distribution 1,355 1,355 1,359 1,375 1,376 1,392 1000 HEAD, 1000 MT CWE, PERCENT, PEOPLE, KG Live Swine PS&D Table Animal Numbers, Swine Japan 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Total Beginning Stocks 10,000 10,000 9,768 9,768 9,800 9,730 Sow Beginning Stocks 930 930 901 901 915 910 Production (Pig Crop) 17,500 17,500 17,000 17,000 17,300 17,150 Total Imports 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total Supply 27,501 27,501 26,769 26,769 27,101 26,881 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sow Slaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Slaughter 16,788 16,807 16,270 16,388 16,600 16,500 Total Slaughter 16,788 16,807 16,270 16,388 16,600 16,500 Loss 945 926 699 651 651 651 Ending Inventories 9,768 9,768 9,800 9,730 9,850 9,730 Total Distribution 27,501 27,501 26,769 26,769 27,101 26,881 1000 HEAD, PERCENT Pork PS&D Table Meat, Swine Japan 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Slaughter (Reference) 16,788 16,807 16,270 16,388 16,600 16,500 Beginning Stocks 217 217 218 218 202 216 Production 1,292 1,292 1,255 1,267 1,280 1,275 Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Imports 1,198 1,199 1,210 1,254 1,210 1,209 Total Imports 1,198 1,199 1,210 1,254 1,210 1,209 Total Supply 2,707 2,708 2,683 2,739 2,692 2,700 Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Exports 1 1 0 1 1 1 Total Exports 1 1 0 1 1 1 Human Dom. Consumption 2,488 2,489 2,481 2,522 2,489 2,487 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 2,488 2,489 2,481 2,522 2,489 2,487 Ending Stocks 218 218 202 216 202 212 Total Distribution 2,707 2,708 2,683 2,739 2,692 2,700 1000 HEAD, 1000 MT CWE, PERCENT, PEOPLE, KG Author Defined: Preface This report is an update to JA1038 Japan Livestock and Products Annual, dated September 5, 2011. In updating the demand and supply outlook and forecast numbers for CY 2012, Post applied the following assumptions: - No changes to Japan?s Export Verification (EV) Program for U.S. beef, thus continued limited market access during CY 2012 - Continued lack of positive income growth, thus average consumers will remain price conscious Quantities listed in the text are made on the basis of Carcass Weight Equivalent ? CWE (unless specified otherwise). Some numbers in the inserted tables are on a product weight basis and have not been converted to CWE. Rates of conversion from product weight to CWE are: Beef Cuts (Boneless) ? 1.40 Pork Cuts (Boneless) ? 1.30 Processed/Prepared Beef Products ? 1.79 Processed/Prepared Pork Products ? 1.30 All supplemental tables provided in the report are provided for the reader?s own analysis. 2012 Beef Market Outlook (Revised) In the 2011 annual report, Post?s 2012 beef market outlook presented a scenario which predicted a recovery from last year?s drop in domestic production and consumption due to the March earthquake/tsunami, E. coli 0157 incident, and Cesium 137 detection in domestic beef (See the previous annual report: JA 1038 dated September 5, 2011). In the 2011 report, Post projected a slight decline in 2011 total consumption, a slight increase in total imports, and relatively high year ending stocks. For 2012, Post forecasted a gradual depletion of the high carryover stocks due to a slight increase in total consumption over the previous year. Post also projected that the 2012 total slaughter was to continue its decline and that total imports would remain unchanged over the previous year. However, there was actually an increase in total imports due to greater demand, which contributed to total consumption being slightly higher in 2012. Also, the actual year ending stock for 2011 was only slightly above the year?s beginning level. Finally, the 2011 report also noted greater demand for ?medium grade grain fed beef?. Post projects this demand outlook to continue to hold and that American beef will perform well in 2012. Based on the above, Post has re-forecasted the 2012 outlook as explained below. Slight Rise in Total Beef Consumption Forecasted for 2012 As explained in the previous annual report, last summer?s issue of cesium detection in domestic beef (fed with contaminated rice straw) was the key development that had shaken consumer confidence in the safety of domestic product. Even though it is not a government requirement, major retailers continue to sell domestic beef with stickers/labels indicating ?tested? or ?no detection? signs. Post is unsure how long these practices will continue as the government?s response seems to have been effective in preventing contaminated beef from entering into distribution channels. For consumption, last summer?s shift from domestic beef to imported beef and pork continued through the rest of 2011. Post expects this consumption shift, especially to pork, to be temporary and to reverse in 2012. The market prospect for imported beef is also expected to remain good for the year. This is especially true for sales of American grain fed cuts, which can meet demand for ?affordably priced medium grade grain fed cuts?. In fact, on a year-to-year comparison, 2011 imports (excluding processed and prepared products) were four percent higher for beef cuts (724,000 MT) and ten percent higher for chilled pork cuts (330,740 MT). Due to this increase in beef cuts imports, Post has changed its previous forecast for Japan?s total beef consumption from ?slip slightly? to ?net increase? of one percent to 1.239 million MT. Last year?s main highlight was the remarkable growth of American beef, which shot up 32 percent to 169,000 MT over the previous year, beating Post?s earlier conservative projection. Aussie beef suffered a four percent drop due to its high price. For the new 2012 outlook, Post projects market demand for imported grain fed cuts to continue and improve overall demand. Based on the above, 2012 total beef consumption is now projected to increase by one percent to at 1.256 million MT, a substantial increase from Post?s earlier projection. Modest Import Growth Forecasted in 2012 Post also projects a modest growth of two percent in beef imports for 2012, with total imports at 756,000 MT (Beef Cuts: up four percent to 724,000 MT, Prepared/Processed, unchanged at 21,000 MT), another substantial increase from last year?s estimate. Currently, Post estimates this year?s U.S. imports to grow at a moderate pace when compared to 2011, up by seven percent to total around 182,000 MT. This estimate is based on the assumption that sufficient numbers of qualified beef cattle under the EV program for Japan are available in the United States to meet Japan?s solid market demand for grain fed cuts. However, Japanese importers are concerned about the increasing U.S. export offer that started last year. If it persists, it may effectively eliminate the competitive price advantage which the United States enjoyed against Australia in 2011. The increase in the export offer may be due to the historically small number of cattle in U.S. feedlots forecast for this year. Also, according to market sources, some Australian suppliers have started to lower their export offer for Japan. This move may also be related to their increased slaughter and production forecast for the year. At this time, Japan?s imports of Aussie beef in 2012 are projected down by three percent from the previous year at around 471,000 MT. As in the previous year, Australian supplies of chilled grass and grain fed cuts are expected to continue to be replaced by increased American grain fed cuts. Readers may note that Japan?s Aussie frozen grass fed cuts (mostly used for fast food hamburger paddies) may continue to perform well in 2012 catering to low price seeking consumers. Stable Domestic Beef Outputs Forecasted for 2012 Post has revised Japan?s 2012 total cattle slaughter downward from its previous projection. The actual total slaughter in 2011 fell more than Post?s previous forecast, with a three percent decline at 1.179 million heads (501,000 MT). Reflecting a slow recovery, Post projected, on a year-to-year comparison, a marginal decline for the 2012 total slaughter to 1.175 million Heads (500,000 MT). There is a report that some spent dairy cows (estimated 4,000 ? 5,000 heads) that were raised in the radiation-affected Tohoku and Kanto regions were voluntarily retained last year due to contamination concerns and that these cows are expected to be slaughtered this year. Therefore, some increase in dairy cow slaughter may be seen in 2012, but this will most likely be offset by reduced slaughters elsewhere. On-going Review of BSE Restrictions May Change Forecast Later Late last year, the Government of Japan finally announced that it would review its overall BSE restrictions through the Food Safety Commission (FSC) review. The FSC review may change Japan?s import restrictions imposed on American beef, which have been in effect for nearly 10 years, in which case, Post will revise the PS&D numbers. Factors to be incorporated in Post?s assessment will be; 1) Substitutability of American beef for Aussie beef, 2) Likely growth of total beef imports, 3) Possibility of beef safeguard triggering, and 4) Likely impacts on pork market. 2012 Pork Market Outlook (Revised) Post?s previous projection for Japan?s 2012 pork market still holds, and consumption is expected to be affected by a potential recovery in Japan?s beef consumption as outlined in the previous outlook scenario. Given preliminary 2011 annual production and trade data just publicized, Post made adjustments to the 2011 PS&D numbers, as well as 2012 total consumption, domestic slaughter (pork production), total imports, and the beginning and ending stocks forecast in the latest annual report. Currently, increased domestic pork production and distribution are expected to hold market prices lower through 2012, which will likely intensify competition in sales with imported chilled cuts. This may subsequently lead to 2012 imports being lower than last year total. The potential recovery in Japan?s beef market may also become a factor in this year?s projected reduction of total imports. Total Pork Consumption Forecasted to be Lower in 2012 The Japanese 2012 pork market is expected to correct the surplus situation that started late last year. Post projects that the consumption recovery in the beef market and a projected increase in the supply and distribution of low priced domestic fresh/chilled pork cuts may trim 2012 total consumption by lowering total imports, especially those competing with chilled cuts. This scenario assumes that demand for raw material frozen cuts (including seasoned ground pork) will remain stable and hold through this year. In light of the above, total consumption in 2012 is now projected one percent lower from the previous year at 2.487 million MT, marginally lower than Post?s earlier estimate. Total Domestic Pork Outputs to Rebound Slightly in 2012 Despite the difficulties experienced in the previous two years (FMD outbreaks in Miyazaki in 2010, and the earthquake/tsunami in March 2011), overall 2011 domestic hog slaughter in 2011 recovered at a faster than previously anticipated rate, with outputs (on a month-to-month comparison) reaching their 2010 levels late last year. Therefore, in 2011, Japan?s annual base hog slaughter and outputs fell only a modest two percent to 16.4 million heads (1.267 million MT), with the second half recovery partially offsetting any first half decline. For 2012, Post projects a gradual rise in domestic slaughter and production to occur, up by one percent to 16.5 million heads (1.275 million MT) on an annual basis, slightly lower than Post?s earlier projection. Overall Supply Surplus to Cut Back Total Imports in 2012 Some surplus remained in the market due to the combination of stronger than anticipated imports (especially chilled cuts) and the recovery of domestic pork outputs, which took place in the latter half of 2011. Competition with imported chilled cuts caused market prices for domestic pork to slump during 2011?s fourth quarter. This situation has carried into 2012 and has somewhat kept market prices weak during the first quarter. This situation, if it persists, will most likely tighten imports at some point. Since 2011 total imports were actually higher than Post?s earlier projection (up five percent to 1.25 million MT), Japan?s total pork imports for 2012 are now projected down by three percent to 1.21 million MT (Pork Cuts: down by four percent to 988,000 MT, Processed/Prepared Products: down by one percent to 221,000 MT). This level is also lower than Post?s earlier projection. At this time, Post is projecting Japan?s imports of American pork (pork cuts combined with seasoned ground pork in the prepared/processed category) to decline by two percent to 553,000 MT. Post anticipates that chilled pork imports from the United States and Canada may be cut back in 2012. Stable Year Ending Stock is Projected for 2012 Post estimates the 2012 year ending stock to be roughly at the same level as last year, assuming that the relatively stable raw material demand for processing (including seasoned ground pork) holds at 213,000 MT, lower than the actual year?s beginning level. Table 1: Average of Monthly Expenditures and Quantities of Selected Commodities and Services Purchased per Household (Two-or-more person households) Beef Pork Chicken Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity CY 2008 20,885 6,785 25,555 18,305 12,830 12,657 CY 2009 20,166 7,045 24,790 18,639 12,614 13,649 % Chg. -3% 4% -3% 2% -2% 8% CY 2010 18,965 6,933 23,959 18,501 12,387 13,755 % Chg. -6% -2% -3% -1% -2% 1% CY 2011 Jan. 1,550 -2% 552 -1% 2,072 3% 1,614 5% 1,042 -2% 1,128 -4% Feb. 1,385 2% 515 -4% 1,980 2% 1,533 0% 932 -8% 1,028 -11% Mar. 1,448 -5% 571 -2% 2,106 5% 1,650 5% 1,024 -2% 1,148 -2% Apr. 1,529 5% 566 1% 2,025 5% 1,521 1% 970 -5% 986 -14% May 1,572 0% 581 0% 2,004 1% 1,523 1% 1,030 2% 1,086 -4% Jun. 1,478 10% 570 9% 1,963 5% 1,482 3% 993 5% 1,022 -6% July 1,370 -9% 503 -9% 1,992 4% 1,515 5% 980 9% 1,057 4% Aug. 1,486 -7% 531 -10% 2,073 6% 1,538 2% 970 11% 1,040 5% Sept. 1,341 -7% 544 -2% 2,000 1% 1,549 1% 1,062 8% 1,149 3% Oct. 1,452 -5% 544 1% 2,136 1% 1,682 2% 1,154 5% 1,269 4% Nov. 1,431 -5% 557 -3% 2,151 3% 1,670 4% 1,147 7% 1,241 7% Dec. 2,550 1% 752 -4% 2,246 2% 1,719 3% 1,495 10% 1,557 13% CY 2011 Jan. - Dec. 18,592 6,786 24,748 18,996 12,799 13,711 % Chg. -2% -2% 3% 3% 3% 0% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau Ground Meat Ham Sausage Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity CY 2008 2,041 1,795 5,870 2,887 7,212 5,175 CY 2009 2,045 1,888 5,670 2,947 7,197 5,324 % Chg. 0% 5% -3% 2% 0% 3% CY 2010 1,932 1,853 5,618 2,993 7,067 5,434 % Chg. -6% -2% -1% 2% -2% 2% CY 2011 Jan. 156 0% 144 -5% 319 1% 175 -1% 523 -3% 402 -5% Feb. 160 0% 160 0% 299 1% 165 -1% 527 -2% 399 -3% Mar. 170 1% 163 2% 345 2% 196 8% 599 0% 456 0% Apr. 170 3% 155 -1% 352 4% 195 5% 608 2% 456 -3% May 186 7% 174 7% 395 2% 219 4% 632 1% 494 6% Jun. 173 -1% 167 -3% 454 -1% 246 -4% 575 0% 431 -5% July 154 -3% 151 3% 603 4% 334 9% 570 0% 444 1% Aug. 164 5% 156 4% 490 -1% 257 -6% 595 -1% 450 -1% Sept. 170 6% 160 5% 364 -3% 210 4% 600 -1% 466 2% Oct. 168 6% 158 4% 358 0% 197 3% 633 1% 480 -2% Nov. 161 3% 156 3% 571 9% 307 6% 612 4% 466 4% Dec. 150 4% 148 6% 1,084 -5% 523 -6% 626 4% 458 0% CY 2011 1,982 1,892 5,634 3,024 7,100 5,402 % Chg. 3% 2% 0% 1% 0% -1% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau Bacon Expenditure Quantity CY 2008 2,426 1,369 CY 2009 2,391 1,379 % Chg. -1% 1% CY 2010 2,275 1,380 % Chg. -5% 0% CY 2011 Jan. 166 -3% 95 -7% Feb. 186 1% 114 2% Mar. 204 0% 132 9% Apr. 204 7% 123 9% May 217 9% 131 5% Jun. 218 15% 133 13% July 196 8% 121 10% Aug. 200 17% 121 15% Sept. 212 10% 133 14% Oct. 207 6% 130 7% Nov. 211 10% 129 11% Dec. 208 1% 127 6% CY 2011 2,429 1,489 % Chg. 7% 8% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau Table 2: Australian Beef Exports to Japan Unit: Metric Ton (Shipped Weight Basis) CY 2009 2010 2011 2011 2011 Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec % Chg. Share Chilled Beef 168,928 155,536 138,408 -11% 100% Grass 55,217 51,775 45,558 -12% 33% Grain fed 113,711 103,761 92,850 -11% 67% Frozen Beef 187,638 200,675 203,778 2% 100% Grass 146,162 150,074 155,172 3% 76% Grain fed 41,476 50,601 48,606 -4% 24% TOTAL 356,566 356,211 342,186 -4% 100% Grass 201,379 201,850 200,731 -1% 59% Grain fed 155,187 154,362 141,456 -8% 41% Source: Meat Livestock Australia (Compiled by post) Table 3-A: Beef Safeguard Trigger Levels for JFY 2011 and Actual Imports Year to Date Unit: Metric Ton Chilled Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 74,339 55,274 18,596 17,148 19,530 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 152,456 108,446 17,766 17,300 18,106 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 230,642 164,123 17,192 20,107 18,378 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 292,355 164,123 Frozen Beef Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 79,135 68,169 29,419 22,829 15,921 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 175,480 152,298 29,710 28,736 25,683 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 264,467 232,706 26,091 27,255 27,062 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 341,996 232,706 Source: Ministry of Finance Note: For JFY 2006 - JFY 2010 beef SG trigger levels, the levels are determined based on a special measure by GOJ as per our voluntary report. Table 3-B: Pork Safeguard Trigger Levels for JFY 2009 and Actual Imports Year to Date Unit: Metric Ton JFY 2009 Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 233,663 172,956 59,527 56,592 56,837 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 448,131 324,982 57,549 48,164 46,313 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 666,791 480,348 50,686 48,084 56,596 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 871,699 638,968 52,220 47,701 58,699 JFY 2010 Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 224,488 198,319 66,192 60,274 71,853 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 434,398 376,577 65,680 61,408 51,170 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 645,081 539,862 51,964 55,805 55,516 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 839,812 714,658 53,936 58,265 62,595 JFY 2011 Trigger Level Cum. Total Quarterly Cum. Actual Entry April May June I (Apr. - Jun.) 228,878 192,076 67,802 59,008 65,266 July August September I - II (Apr. - Sept.) 437,636 361,225 55,510 58,436 55,203 October November December II - III (Apr. - Dec.) 641,388 557,778 63,395 71,001 62,157 January February March III - IV (Apr. - Mar.) 838,343 557,778 Source: Ministry of Finance Table 4-A: Japanese Wholesale Beef Price: Quarterly Average for Medium Grade Auctioned Carcasses by Breed, Tokyo Market Unit: JP Yen/Kg. WAGYU STEER A-3 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,807 1,639 1,577 1,575 1,650 2009 1,542 1,529 1,462 1,535 1,517 %chg -15% -7% -7% -3% -8% 2010 1,460 1,469 1,479 1,549 1,489 %chg -5% -4% 1% 1% -2% 2011 1,530 1,437 1,197 1,176 1,335 %chg 5% -2% -19% -24% -10% WAGYU STEER A-2 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,539 1,339 1,265 1,197 1,335 2009 1,267 1,302 1,196 1,202 1,242 %chg -18% -3% -5% 0% -7% 2010 1,223 1,291 1,300 1,351 1,291 %chg -4% -1% 9% 12% 4% 2011 1,362 1,256 900 828 1,087 %chg 11% -3% -31% -39% -16% WAGYU Heifer A-3 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,821 1,665 1,598 1,613 1,674 2009 1,578 1,563 1,476 1,539 1,539 %chg -13% -6% -8% -5% -8% 2010 1,469 1,470 1,473 1,544 1,489 %chg -7% -6% -0% 0% -3% 2011 1,534 1,430 1,225 1,188 1,344 %chg 4% -3% -17% -23% -10% Holstein Steer B-2 Grade 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 768 801 728 788 771 2009 807 763 736 754 765 %chg 5% -5% 1% -4% -1% 2010 697 685 635 648 666 %chg -14% -10% -14% -14% -13% 2011 652 645 329 362 497 %chg -6% -6% -48% -44% -25% Holstein Cow C-2 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 496 575 548 476 524 2009 479 472 447 375 443 %chg -3% -18% -18% -21% -15% 2010 338 370 378 344 358 %chg -29% -22% -15% -8% -19% 2011 394 439 357 183 344 %chg 17% 19% -6% -47% -4% F1 Cross Breed Heifer B-3 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,263 1,230 1,165 1,178 1,209 2009 1,116 1,106 1,072 1,097 1,098 %chg -12% -10% -8% -7% -9% 2010 1,068 1,123 1,118 1,252 1,140 %chg -4% 2% 4% 14% 4% 2011 1,199 1,137 1,015 845 1,049 %chg 12% 1% -9% -32% -8% F1 Cross Breed Heifer B-2 GRADE 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2007 1,143 1,100 1,033 1,023 1,075 2008 1,054 1,041 937 903 984 %chg -8% -5% -9% -12% -8% 2009 916 948 844 852 890 %chg -13% -9% -10% -6% -10% 2010 895 998 978 1,116 997 %chg -2% 5% 16% 31% 12% 2011 1,096 980 798 573 862 %chg 22% -2% -18% -49% -14% Source: Meat Distribution Statistic, MAFF Table 4-B: Monthly Average Wholesale Price, Imported Beef by Cuts and Origin, Chilled Unit: JP Yen/Kg. Full Set, Aussie Beef, Chilled, (Short Grain Fed) 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,017 1,004 971 876 967 2009 730 746 755 743 744 %chg -28% -26% -22% -15% -23% 2010 756 786 715 768 756 %chg 4% 5% -5% 3% 2% 2011 842 803 758 772 794 %chg 11% 2% 6% 0% 5% Full Set, Aussie Beef, Chilled, (Grass Fed) 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 856 771 846 739 803 2009 638 630 648 677 648 %chg -25% -18% -23% -8% -19% 2010 719 688 637 694 684 %chg 13% 9% -2% 3% 6% 2011 767 703 669 687 707 %chg 7% 2% 5% -1% 3% Navel-end Brisket, Aussie Beef, Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 652 598 728 622 650 2009 573 640 604 576 598 %chg -12% 7% -17% -7% -8% 2010 597 552 548 556 563 %chg 4% -14% -9% -3% -6% 2011 586 552 532 513 546 %chg -2% 0% -3% -8% -3% Strip Loin, Aussie Beef, Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,452 1,175 1,248 980 1,214 2009 1,042 989 1,068 1,078 1,044 %chg -28% -16% -14% 10% -14% 2010 1,317 1,158 975 981 1,108 %chg 26% 17% -9% -9% 6% 2011 1,148 1,008 940 945 1,010 %chg -13% -13% -4% -4% -9% Chuck Rib, US Beef, Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,473 1,487 1,419 1,342 1,430 2009 1,291 1,289 1,116 1,007 1,176 %chg -12% -13% -21% -25% -18% 2010 1,024 1,186 1,139 1,053 1,101 %chg -21% -8% 2% 5% -6% 2011 1,087 1,111 1,049 1,024 1,068 %chg 6% -6% -8% -3% -3% Chuck Eye, US Beef, Chilled 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 915 876 887 896 894 2009 799 732 703 725 740 %chg -13% -16% -21% -19% -17% 2010 743 758 718 755 743 %chg -7% 4% 2% 4% 1% 2011 814 739 697 799 762 %chg 10% -3% -3% 6% 3% Source: Meat Distribution Statistic, MAFF (Quarterly numbers are compiled by Post) Table 4-C: Monthly Average Wholesale Price of Domestic Pork Carcass in Tokyo Market Unit: JP Yen/Kg. Excellent Grade 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 532 571 559 428 522 2009 409 471 414 417 428 % Chg -23% -17% -26% -3% -18% 2010 419 485 495 446 461 % Chg 3% 3% 20% 7% 8% 2011 466 506 493 411 469 % Chg 11% 4% -1% -8% 2% Medium Grade 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 499 549 521 397 492 2009 380 444 380 377 395 % Chg -24% -19% -27% -5% -20% 2010 371 444 446 405 417 % Chg -2% -0% 17% 8% 5% 2011 425 475 455 375 433 % Chg 14% 7% 2% -7% 4% Source: Meat Distribution Statistic, MAFF (Quarterly numbers are compiled by Post) Table 4-D: Monthly Average Wholesale Price for Domestic Pork Cuts by Meat Traders, Fresh/Chilled Unit: JP Yen/Kg. Full-set 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 736 795 805 620 739 2009 599 651 608 584 610 %chg -19% -18% -25% -6% -17% 2010 606 669 716 640 658 %chg 1% 3% 18% 10% 8% 2011 685 729 704 586 676 %chg 13% 9% -2% -8% 3% Picnic 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 564 630 630 495 580 2009 448 480 439 408 444 %chg -21% -24% -30% -18% -24% 2010 422 483 494 454 463 %chg -6% 1% 13% 11% 4% 2011 498 550 525 446 505 %chg 18% 14% 6% -2% 9% Shoulder Loin 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 969 999 1,031 848 962 2009 785 822 779 796 795 %chg -19% -18% -24% -6% -17% 2010 781 823 892 874 842 %chg -1% 0% 15% 10% 6% 2011 874 875 874 779 851 %chg 12% 6% -2% -11% 1% Loin 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,018 1,042 1,073 872 1,001 2009 826 887 837 829 845 %chg -19% -15% -22% -5% -16% 2010 812 879 951 906 887 %chg -2% -1% 14% 9% 5% 2011 917 915 925 810 892 %chg 13% 4% -3% -11% 1% Tender Loin 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 1,148 1,194 1,215 986 1,136 2009 968 1,032 971 931 975 %chg -16% -14% -20% -6% -14% 2010 934 975 997 932 959 %chg -4% -5% 3% 0% -2% 2011 963 996 991 886 959 %chg 3% 2% -1% -5% -0% Belly 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 924 932 930 780 891 2009 743 752 694 741 733 %chg -20% -19% -25% -5% -18% 2010 763 786 815 861 806 %chg 3% 4% 17% 16% 10% 2011 878 868 817 754 829 %chg 15% 10% 0% -12% 3% Ham 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 594 657 652 518 605 2009 478 519 474 437 477 %chg -20% -21% -27% -16% -21% 2010 449 519 524 479 493 %chg -6% -0% 11% 9% 3% 2011 516 569 550 467 526 %chg 15% 10% 5% -2% 7% Source: Meat Distribution Statistic, MAFF (Quarterly numbers are compiled by Post) Table 4-E: Monthly Average Wholesale Price of Imported Pork Cuts Traded by Middlemen, Chilled Unit: JP Yen/Kg. Loin, USA 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 626 622 643 625 629 2009 621 605 610 607 611 %chg -1% -3% -5% -3% -3% 2010 611 596 604 599 603 %chg -2% -1% -1% -1% -1% 2011 601 597 596 584 595 %chg -2% 0% -1% -3% -1% Loin, Canada 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 656 650 671 650 657 2009 631 617 624 625 624 %chg -4% -5% -7% -4% -5% 2010 621 614 622 617 618 %chg -2% -1% -0% -1% -1% 2011 620 618 619 600 614 %chg -0% 1% -0% -3% -1% Tender Loin, USA 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 745 751 852 763 778 2009 736 724 711 698 717 %chg -1% -4% -17% -9% -8% 2010 696 697 689 687 692 %chg -5% -4% -3% -2% -3% 2011 689 692 690 689 690 %chg -1% -1% 0% 0% -0% Tender Loin, Canada 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 846 845 884 841 854 2009 796 787 769 776 782 %chg -6% -7% -13% -8% -8% 2010 766 767 775 777 771 %chg -4% -3% 1% 0% -1% 2011 781 774 771 763 772 %chg 2% 1% -0% -2% 0% Shoulder Loin, USA 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 652 648 661 643 651 2009 631 617 624 625 624 %chg -3% -5% -6% -3% -4% 2010 621 612 621 623 619 %chg -2% -1% -0% -0% -1% 2011 619 632 630 608 622 %chg -0% 3% 1% -2% 1% shoulder Loin, Canada 1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Yearly Ave. 2008 683 676 698 673 682 2009 648 649 647 645 647 %chg -5% -4% -7% -4% -5% 2010 638 635 641 644 640 %chg -1% -2% -1% -0% -1% 2011 642 654 654 633 646 %chg 1% 3% 2% -2% 1% Source: Meat Distribution Statistic, MAFF (Quarterly numbers are compiled by Post) Table 5-A: Japanese Monthly Ending Beef Stock Estimates Unit: Metric Ton (Carcass Equivalent) 2008 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. Jan. 101,830 114,384 12% 109,507 -4% 121,460 11% Feb. 100,194 115,133 15% 101,847 -12% 115,384 13% Mar. 101,938 110,956 9% 96,699 -13% 120,288 24% Apr. 98,662 101,165 3% 99,306 -2% 114,618 15% May 103,544 101,452 -2% 102,899 1% 117,349 14% Jun. 104,682 108,608 4% 108,482 -0% 128,628 19% Jul. 112,221 117,881 5% 114,444 -3% 136,346 19% Aug. 116,736 120,725 3% 124,660 3% 139,075 12% Sept. 122,966 122,319 -1% 128,486 5% 134,746 5% Oct. 123,063 122,452 -0% 124,109 1% 131,445 6% Nov. 120,012 124,414 4% 128,394 3% 135,610 6% Dec. 116,134 119,342 3% 128,677 8% 136,006 6% Source: MAFF Table 5-B: Japanese Monthly Ending Pork Stock Estimates Unit: Metric Ton (Carcass Equivalent) Month/Year 2008 % Chg. 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. Jan. 215,210 -6% 242,187 13% 222,352 -8% 221,793 -0% Feb. 213,395 -12% 247,941 16% 218,429 -12% 229,346 5% Mar. 221,711 -8% 252,377 14% 223,313 -12% 226,091 1% Apr. 238,494 1% 256,396 8% 227,208 -11% 225,358 -1% May 250,532 -0% 265,288 6% 240,895 -9% 233,488 -3% Jun. 242,774 -1% 268,905 11% 261,197 -3% 235,265 -10% Jul. 234,295 -3% 261,222 11% 269,677 3% 228,322 -15% Aug. 240,890 -1% 248,970 3% 270,292 9% 219,876 -19% Sept. 240,707 4% 237,154 -1% 258,098 9% 210,201 -19% Oct. 240,872 6% 228,019 -5% 242,017 6% 210,187 -13% Nov. 232,638 10% 222,256 -4% 227,482 2% 219,132 -4% Dec. 237,377 14% 217,071 -9% 218,404 1% 215,833 -1% Source: MAFF Table 6-A: Japanese Beef Imports, Chilled and Frozen Combined Total Calendar Year: January ? December (Customs Clearance Basis): 2009 - 2011 P Quantity % Share % Change artner Country Unit (Metric Ton) 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 481,136 499,531 517,231 100% 100% 100% 4% Australia MT 363,907 351,118 338,744 76% 70% 65% -4% United States MT 69,192 91,618 120,605 14% 18% 23% 32% New Zealand MT 29,558 31,584 29,739 6% 6% 6% -6% Mexico MT 9,629 11,938 17,406 2% 2% 3% 46% Canada MT 8,527 12,926 10,179 2% 3% 2% -21% Others MT 323 347 558 0% 0% 0% 61% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs Data) Table 6-B: Japanese Beef Imports, Chilled Calendar Year: January ? December (Customs Clearance Basis): 2009 - 2011 Partner Country Unit (M Quantity % Share % Change etric Ton) 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 212,727 211,445 213,400 100% 100% 100% 1% Australia MT 168,577 155,036 139,764 79% 73% 65% -10% United States MT 34,535 44,130 61,916 16% 21% 29% 40% New Zealand MT 6,057 7,316 7,531 3% 3% 4% 3% Canada MT 2,472 3,730 2,909 1% 2% 1% -22% Mexico MT 1,086 1,232 1,280 1% 1% 1% 4% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs Data) Table 6-C: Japanese Beef Imports, Frozen Calendar Year: 2009 ? 2011 (Customs Clearance Basis) P Quantity % Share % Change artner Country Unit (Metric Ton) 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 268,408 288,086 303,831 100% 100% 100% 5% Australia MT 195,330 196,082 198,979 73% 68% 65% 1% United States MT 34,658 47,488 58,689 13% 16% 19% 24% New Zealand MT 23,501 24,268 22,207 9% 8% 7% -8% Mexico MT 8,543 10,705 16,126 3% 4% 5% 51% Canada MT 6,055 9,196 7,270 2% 3% 2% -21% Others MT 321 347 560 0% 0% 0% 61% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs Data) Table 6-D: Japanese Beef Imports, Prepared and Processed Products Calendar Year: January - December (Customs Clearance Basis) P Quantity % Share % Change artner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 12,901 11,995 11,715 100% 100% 100% -2% Australia MT 5,802 5,677 5,486 45% 47% 47% -3% China MT 1,831 2,525 2,822 14% 21% 24% 12% Brazil MT 4,393 2,994 2,761 34% 25% 24% -8% Other MT 875 799 646 7% 7% 6% -19% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs) Table 6-F: Japanese Beef Edible Offal, Frozen Calendar Year: 2009 ? 2011 (Customs Clearance Basis) P Quantity % Share % Change artner Country Unit (Metric Ton) 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 38,454 41,763 44,192 100% 100% 100% 6% Australia MT 19,942 18,504 17,972 52% 44% 41% -3% United States MT 9,723 13,899 17,186 25% 33% 39% 24% New Zealand MT 4,255 3,839 3,666 11% 9% 8% -5% Mexico MT 1,791 2,335 2,375 5% 6% 5% 2% Canada MT 1,741 2,146 2,052 5% 5% 5% -4% Others MT 1,002 1,040 941 3% 2% 2% -10% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs Data) Note: Edible offal imports are not reflected in Japan?s Beef and Veal PS&D numbers. Table 7-A: Japanese Pork Imports, Chilled and Frozen Combined Total Calendar Year: 2009 - 2011 (Customs Clearance Basis) P Quantity % Share % Change artner Country Unit (Metric Ton) 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 702,938 753,027 793,097 100% 100% 100% 5% United States MT 288,667 298,347 323,750 41% 40% 41% 9% Canada MT 172,373 178,648 174,004 25% 24% 22% -3% Denmark MT 122,923 133,586 130,723 17% 18% 16% -2% Mexico MT 43,684 40,855 41,275 6% 5% 5% 1% Chile MT 26,172 24,507 28,956 4% 3% 4% 18% Others MT 49,119 77,084 94,389 7% 10% 12% 22% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs Data) Note: Others are mostly EU countries. Table 7-B: Japanese Pork Imports, Chilled Calendar Year: 2009 - 2011 (Customs Clearance Basis) P Quantity % Share % Change artner Country Unit (Metric Ton) 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 233,738 231,365 254,416 100% 100% 100% 10% United States MT 169,935 167,203 182,590 73% 72% 72% 9% Canada MT 52,860 54,434 62,333 23% 24% 25% 15% Mexico MT 10,640 9,397 9,190 5% 4% 4% -2% Others MT 303 331 303 0% 0% 0% -8% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs Data) Table 7-C: Japanese Pork Imports, Frozen Calendar Year: 2009 - 2011 (Customs Clearance Basis) P Quantity % Share % Change artner Country Unit (Metric Ton) 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 469,200 521,662 538,680 100% 100% 100% 3% United States MT 118,731 131,144 141,161 25% 25% 26% 8% Denmark MT 122,923 133,513 130,699 26% 26% 24% -2% Canada MT 119,513 124,214 111,672 25% 24% 21% -10% Mexico MT 33,043 31,458 32,086 7% 6% 6% 2% Chile MT 26,172 24,507 28,913 6% 5% 5% 18% Others MT 48,818 76,826 94,149 10% 15% 17% 23% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs Data) Note: Others are mostly EU countries. Table 7-D: Japanese Pork Imports, Prepared and Processed Calendar Year: 2009 - 2011 (Customs Clearance Basis) P Quantity % Share % Change artner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 172,599 168,869 171,549 100% 100% 100% 2% United States MT 111,547 104,274 110,054 65% 62% 64% 6% China MT 27,872 27,815 25,178 16% 16% 15% -9% Canada MT 14,728 16,572 14,598 9% 10% 9% -12% Thailand MT 5,579 7,362 7,345 3% 4% 4% 0% Chile MT 4,384 4,848 5,163 3% 3% 3% 6% Denmark MT 3,368 3,096 3,453 2% 2% 2% 12% Mexico MT 1,575 1,641 2,108 1% 1% 1% 28% Others MT 3,546 3,261 3,650 2% 2% 2% 12% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs Data) Note: Imports from the United States, Canada, Chile and Mexico are mostly "seasoned ground pork" for sausage manufacturing. Table 7-F: Japanese Sausage Imports Calendar Year: 2009 - 2011 (Customs Clearance Basis) P Quantity % Share % Change artner Country Unit (Metric Ton) 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2011/2010 World MT 40,735 43,347 45,702 100% 100% 100% 5% China MT 20,645 23,244 23,054 51% 54% 50% -1% United States MT 9,551 8,711 9,231 23% 20% 20% 6% Thailand MT 5,083 5,425 7,796 12% 13% 17% 44% Brazil MT 1,587 1,893 1,567 4% 4% 3% -17% Denmark MT 1,300 1,367 1,215 3% 3% 3% -11% Others MT 2,569 2,707 2,839 6% 6% 6% 5% Source: Global Trade Atlas (Japan Customs Data) Table 8: Year Beginning Livestock Inventory as of February 1 Unit: 1,000 Farms/1,000 Heads 2008 2009 %chg 2010 %chg 2011 %chg Number of Beef Cattle Farms 80.4 77.3 -4% 74.4 -4% 69.6 -6% Beef Cattle (Wagyu and Other) 1,823 1,889 4% 1,924 2% 1,868 -3% Dairy Cattle for Beef 431 431 0% 421 -2% 412 -2% F-1 Cross Bred Cattle 636 636 0% 547 -14% 483 -12% 'Sub Total Dairy & F-1 Cattle for Beef 1,067 1,067 0% 968 -9% 895 -8% Total Beef Cattle Raised 2,890 2,956 2% 2,892 -2% 2,763 -4% Number of Dairy Cattle Farms 24.4 23.1 -5% 21.9 -5% 21.0 -4% Total Dairy Cow and Heifer Raised 1,533 1,500 -2% 1,484 -1% 1,467 -1% Total Cattle Raised 4,423 4,456 1% 4,376 -2% 4,230 -3% Historic Series of Japanese Swine Inventory 2008 2009 %chg 2010 %chg 2011 %chg Number of Swine Farms 7.2 6.9 -4% N.A. 6.0 Number of Hogs Raised for Fattening 8,117 8,220 1% N.A. 8,186 Total Swine Raised 9,745 9,899 2% N.A. 9,768 Source: MAFF Livestock Statistics Due to Agricultural Census to be conducted every five year, only the cattle inventory data for the year beginning of 2010 was announced, but for the hog inventory, statistical data collection was not made.
Posted: 21 April 2012

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