Dairy and Products Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Dairy Products in Japan

Posted on: 29 Nov 2012

Japan’s 2013 fluid milk demand and supply outlook is not expected to improve dramatically from last year.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 11/7/2012 GAIN Report Number: JA2025 Japan Dairy and Products Annual 2013 Market Outlook and 2012 Situation Update and Revised Outlook Approved By: Benjamin Petlock, Agricultural Attaché Prepared By: Kakuyu Obara, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Japan’s 2013 fluid milk demand and supply outlook is not expected to improve dramatically from last year. National fluid milk output, projected slightly lower for next year at 7.54 million MT, will likely not improve the country’s butter supply deficit and will most likely force Japan to import roughly the same amount of the current access butter during Japan Fiscal Year (JFY) 2013 as last year. High global market prices for cheese that are forecast for 2013 may slow Japan’s overall consumption, as well as imports, which have experienced several years of record-breaking growth. Commodities: Dairy, Milk, Fluid Dairy, Butter Dairy, Milk, Nonfat Dry Dairy, Cheese Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Fluid Milk PS&D Table Dairy, Milk, Fluid Japan 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Cows In Milk 805 805 815 813 810 Cows Milk Production 7,474 7,474 7,590 7,570 7,540 Other Milk Production 0 0 0 0 0 Total Production 7,474 7,474 7,590 7,570 7,540 Other Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 7,474 7,474 7,590 7,570 7,540 Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Fluid Use Dom. Consum. 4,058 4,058 4,080 4,010 3,970 Factory Use Consum. 3,351 3,351 3,440 3,500 3,510 Feed Use Dom. Consum. 65 65 70 60 60 Total Dom. Consumption 7,474 7,474 7,590 7,570 7,540 Total Distribution 7,474 7,474 7,590 7,570 7,540 1000 HEAD, 1000 MT Butter PS&D Table Dairy, Butter Japan 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 21 21 17 17 17 Production 63 63 70 68 68 Other Imports 14 14 12 10 9 Total Imports 14 14 12 10 9 Total Supply 98 98 99 95 94 Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Domestic Consumption 81 81 82 78 77 Total Use 81 81 82 78 77 Ending Stocks 17 17 17 17 17 Total Distribution 98 98 99 95 94 1000 MT NFDM PS&D Table Dairy, Milk, Nonfat Dry Japan 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 57 57 42 42 35 Production 137 137 150 140 140 Other Imports 27 27 30 32 32 Total Imports 27 27 30 32 32 Total Supply 221 221 222 214 207 Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Human Dom. Consumption 157 157 160 152 150 Other Use, Losses 22 22 25 27 27 Total Dom. Consumption 179 179 185 179 177 Total Use 179 179 185 179 177 Ending Stocks 42 42 37 35 30 Total Distribution 221 221 222 214 207 1000 MT Cheese PS&D Table Dairy, Cheese Japan 2011 2012 2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 15 15 15 15 15 Production 49 49 50 50 51 Other Imports 215 215 225 230 235 Total Imports 215 215 225 230 235 Total Supply 279 279 290 295 301 Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Human Dom. Consumption 264 264 275 280 286 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 264 264 275 280 286 Total Use 264 264 275 280 286 Ending Stocks 15 15 15 15 15 Total Distribution 279 279 290 295 301 1000 MT Author Defined: Preface: This report is an update to JA 2011, the 2012 Japan Dairy and Products Semi-annual (5/31/2012). Post’s previous PS&D preliminary projections for 2012 and annual outlook has been further revised based on the latest data (preliminarily) publicized for domestic production, stocks, and imports by the Government of Japan (GOJ). The data discussed in this report are on a calendar year basis unless specified otherwise. For convenience sake, Post’s reference to Japan’s current access for dairy commodities, so called the minimum access, and dairy subsidies is based on the Japanese fiscal year (JFY: Starting April and ending March next year ). As a result of the Uruguay Round trade negotiations, the GOJ agreed to the commitment to import designated dairy commodities through its state trading entity (up to the total milk equivalent of 137,000 MT), which include butter, NFDM, edible whey, butter oil, and dairy spreads. The conversion coefficient Post used to calculate milk equivalent volumes for each commodity are: NFDM (6.48), Edible Whey Powder (6.84), Butter (12.34), Dairy Spreads (12.34), and Butter Oil (15.05) Executive Summary In 2012, Japan’s fluid milk demand and supply outlook improved slightly from the previous semi- annual forecast, particularly for processing use. Meanwhile, weaker than anticipated demand is expected to lower the utilization of fluid milk for drinking on an annual basis. As a result, annual domestic output of butter is projected to rise more than last year, but will still be below levels in 2010. Therefore, this projected increase may not be enough to resolve the current deficit in the butter supply that has prevailed over the last few years. For JFY 2012, Japan committed to its current access butter import of 7,500 MT with the government making an additional importation of 2,000 MT. However, despite these interventions, the market price for domestic butter still remained high, causing total demand to contract. The NFDM supply situation in 2012 was not bright either. Ingredient demand for NFDM became somewhat lethargic partly due to high market prices and the increased use of alternative ingredients (non-fat concentrate milk derived from cream and also from butter production). One bright spot in the Japanese dairy sector in 2012 was the continued increase in demand for cheese. Growth in market demand resulted in another record-breaking year for both consumption and imports of cheese. Robust market demand for cheese for shredding was integral in boosting imports of American natural cheese, which is typically used for products such as pizza and baked goods. Therefore, Japan’s 2012 imports of American cheese are projected to increase to 25,000 MT – 26,000 MT, repeating last year’s record; with a 10 percent share of the cheese import market, the United States is expected to remain Japan’s third top supplier, following Australia and New Zealand. For Japan’s 2013 fluid milk supply and demand outlook, dairy farmers will likely face difficulty in sustaining the recovery that began in 2012. The steady growth in fluid milk output that is projected for Hokkaido will most likely not offset the ongoing decline in production that is taking place overall nationally. One of the main reasons causing the decline in dairy output of non-Hokkaido prefectures may be the high price for hay cubes/fodder imports. Post projects that Japan will be able to produce the same level of domestic butter and NFDM as last year, but this amount will still not be sufficient to alleviate the continuing deficit in butter and NFDM supplies (even assuming Japan’s JFY 2013 subsidy for fluid milk for processing use remains the same level as the previous fiscal year). In light of the above, Post projects Japan will continue to import butter using the JFY 2013 current access (estimated at 9,000 MT) allocation. For cheese, high global market prices that are forecast in 2012/2013 appear to be overshadowing the 2013 demand outlook and may limit the growth of imports from all major suppliers, including the United States. 2013 Market Outlook for Fluid Milk, Butter, NFDM, and Cheese (New) Increasing global prices for feed grains/hay cubes/fodder and for dairy commodities that are projected in 2013 will likely affect next year’s market outlook in two ways: first, it may hamper the ongoing recovery in Japan’s national fluid milk output; and second, it could slow growth in imports of dairy commodities, especially cheese. Slightly Lower National Fluid Milk Output Projected in 2013 Japan’s national fluid milk output, which partially recovered in 2012 from a three percent decline in the previous year, may not be able to sustain this trend. Post projects national output in 2013 to decline slightly to 7.54 million MT compared to last year (cows in milk at the year beginning are also projected slightly lower at 810,000 head). Reversing the trend in 2012, a steady rise projected in Hokkaido’s fluid milk output will more than likely offset the decline anticipated in combined output for other milk producing prefectures. Post assumes that the Japanese government will continue to maintain the same level of dairy subsidies for fluid milk for processing utilization in JFY 2013 as in the previous fiscal year (see Table 2). High prices for fuel and feed have been affecting Japanese livestock producers by raising their operating and input costs. Specific to the Japanese dairy sector, the prevailing high import price of hay cubes/dry fodder will most likely hurt dairy farmers by increasing the cost of inputs. This is especially true for non-Hokkaido dairy farms as they rely more heavily on imports of feed (see Note). These high operating costs may force more farmers in these regions to discontinue their operations in 2013, especially small and medium scale farmers. (Note: Japanese livestock farmers, including dairy farmers, use a formula-mixed feed which is manufactured and distributed by domestic feed mills, with imported feed grains being a major ingredient. Japanese major feed manufacturers have been raising their quarterly prices in response to soaring feed grain prices during this year. A majority of Japanese livestock farmers are enrolled in a voluntary deficiency payment program – known as the “Formula Mixed Feed and Livestock Stabilization Fund”- which was jointly established by the government, feed manufacturers, and livestock producers. In the event that feed grain prices rise sharply, the Fund will reimburse farmers to cover most of the price hikes made for a given period of time. However, at this time, there is no similar program to cover increases in the import price of hay cubes/dry fodder, which therefore puts dairy farmers at a cost disadvantage. In addition, Post has learned from recent industry media reports that some of the pastures in the Tohoku region have yet to be decontaminated from radiation released in March 2011, which in turn, restricts farmers in that region from using local pastures. In light of the above, Post projects the following 2013 fluid milk utilization breakdowns: for drinking, down one percent at 3.97 million MT, primarily due to weak demand for drinking products; for processing, roughly unchanged at 3.51 million MT from last year. Hokkaido will likely retain a sufficient volume of fluid milk in 2013 and Japan will be able to produce more domestic cheese (up two percent at 51,000 MT) in addition to roughly the same levels of butter (unchanged at 68,000 MT) and NFDM (unchanged at 140,000 MT). Even with the above increases, Post expects Hokkaido to continue shipping the same volume of its fluid milk to other parts of Japan for drinking as last year. Japan’s Butter Imports under the Current Access Likely to Continue in 2013 As noted in the 2012 Butter Section, Japan continues to experience a deficit in its domestic butter supply, despite imports of 9,500 MT made through JFY 2012 current access and additional governmental imports. Insufficient supplies and high market prices have caused a contraction in Japan’s overall demand for butter. Similar to last year, Post projects that the 68,000 MT of butter that will be produced domestically in 2013 will not meet the 77,000 MT of demand that is also expected for this year, and Japan’s overall butter market should remain contracted. This deficit in supply will most likely be met again by the current access import quantities, which is projected at 9,000 MT. However, even if this import level is met, Post expects year ending stock’s will continue to be low and unchanged from the previous year at 17,000 MT. NFDM Supply and Stocks will Continue to be Tight in 2013 Similar to 2012, Japan’s NFDM demand and supply outlook is projected to remain lethargic in 2013. This is partly due to the increased use of NFDM alternatives which are becoming more popular with Japanese dairy ingredient users. Total demand for 2013 is projected slightly lower compared to last year at 177,000 MT (in which NFDM imports for feed use, at 27,000 MT, is the same as last year). As domestic dairy manufacturers are expecting to produce only 140,000 MT to meet this demand, it will be difficult to build up stocks, and Post projects year ending stocks to be 30,000 MT, down from the year beginning level of 35,000 MT. This limited amount of stocks is of some concern as it may not be sufficient to meet any unexpected surges in seasonal NFDM demand and would require additional NFDM imports, either under the JFY 2013 current access or government’s additional import scheme. Such additional imports would need to be 3,000 – 5,000 MT in order to bring demand and supply into balance. High Global Prices for Cheese May Slow Consumption and Import Growth in 2013 Higher global cheese prices, projected in 2013 due to tighter milk supplies and shrinking stocks, may slow growth in Japan’s cheese consumption rate, potentially slowing imports as well. Post projects moderate growth for Japan’s 2013 cheese consumption and import outlook, although both will have record-breaking years again, with total demand up two percent at 286,000 MT and total imports also up two percent at 235,000 MT. However, if import prices repeat the high levels last seen in 2008 (USD 5,388 per MT in 2008 compared to USD 4,712 in 2010 and USD 5,175 in 2011), total consumption in 2013 may decline, affecting all major suppliers including the United States. EU cheeses, which are relatively high priced and mostly for direct consumption, may be the most affected. 2012 Japan Fluid Milk, Butter, NFDM, and Cheese Update Market Situation and Outlook (Revised) Fluid Milk Section - Weaker Drinking Milk Consumption Eased Tightness in Fluid Milk Supply GOJ data released in July showed a one percentage point rise in the number of cows in milk at 813,000 head in the year beginning national dairy herd inventory. This figure was also close to Post’s May 2012 semi-annual projection (see Table 10). Accordingly, Japan’s 2012 national milk output is also projected to recover one percent from the previous year to reach around 7.57 million MT (estimated annual average output per cow at about 9,300 kilograms). As this level is still two percent lower compared to 2010, it seems to reaffirm the underlining difficulties faced by Japan’s dairy sector in reversing the gradual decline in the national fluid milk output. The total number of dairy farms in operation at the beginning of 2012 fell by four percent from the previous year to 20,100 (Hokkaido, down three percent at 7,270 farms, and other milk producing prefectures, down five percent to 12,830 farms). The rate of farmers leaving the dairy sector also does not seem to be slowing. Reasons for the decline in dairy farms include aging farmers without successors, high operation costs due to increased price of feed, fodder, fuel and labor, debt-ridden operations, and limited scope for expansion, especially in milk producing prefectures outside Hokkaido (see JA 1047 Japan, Dairy and Products Annual dated December 15, 2011). To reflect weaker than anticipated 2012 sales of drinking milk products, Post revised its semi-annual projections for Japan’s fluid milk utilization: down for drinking use to 4.01 million MT and up for processing use to 3.5 million MT, up one percent and down four percent when compared to 2011 figures respectively. A plunge in sales of processed milk and lactic acid bacteria drinks appears to have more than offset increases in sales of milk beverages and fermented milk products (yogurt), while sales of regular milk sustained their previous year’s level (see Table 3). Lower than anticipated use of fluid milk for drinking milk products eased the tight fluid milk stocks that were projected to be available for processing utilization in the previous semi-annual. As a result, milk shipped from Hokkaido to other regions for drinking use/sales has reportedly been lower than last year, allowing for more supplies for processing to be available (see Note). Data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) confirms that total fluid milk used for processing rose by seven percent for the first eight months of 2012 with production of major dairy commodities also increasing: up 10 percent for butter, up three percent for cream, and up one percent for NFDM (see Table 4 and see Butter and NFDM sections). MAFF’s data also confirms that domestic cheese production rose by four percent in the same period (see Cheese section). Note: Hokkaido is Japan’s most important state for milk and dairy production, responsible for over 50 percent of the country’s fluid milk output. As a result, major dairy companies have concentrated their factories in Hokkaido with almost 80 – 90 percent of the country’s fluid milk processing occurring there. This factory concentration makes Hokkaido’s dairy farmers the biggest recipients for the GOJ’s subsidy programs designated to support dairy processing. Other provinces, with their geographic advantages of being close to highly populated metropolitan cities and towns, mainly produce drinking milk products and, as the government does not subsidize fluid milk for drinking use, their products are usually higher priced. Butter Section - Japan to Make Additional Butter Imports on Top of the Current Access in 2012 Japan’s overall 2012 butter supply situation has been more or less in line with the semi-annual outlook’s projection of a deficit. Owing to an increase in fluid milk available for processing in Hokkaido, Post projects the 2012 total domestic butter output to rise by eight percent from last year to 68,000 MT. The GOJ’s imports of butter under the JFY 2012 current access scheme, totaling 7,459 MT, were not enough to meet annual demand (see Note – List of GOJ’s current access imports). On a month-to-month comparison through August, average market prices of domestic butter traded among bulk users have remained eight to nine percent higher than last year (see Table 7). In August, to alleviate a potential shortage during the peak sales during the end of December, MAFF announced its intention to import an additional 2,000 MT of butter for industrial use (to be imported by November), making the GOJ’s total butter import for JFY 2012 at 9,459 MT. (Note: This purchase was the second fiscal year in a row that the GOJ made purchases on top of the current access quantities.) New Zealand, Australia, and the Netherlands dominated bidding for the JFY 2012 current access/additional imported butter, each sharing 50 percent, 18 percent and 22 percent respectively (see also Table 8-A and 8-B). Unlike JFY 2011, the United States was less successful, seeing its share reduced to nine percent, due to tough competition with the above three suppliers. Finally, it is less likely that the GOJ will make an additional purchase during this calendar year. The current deficit supply has caused dairy companies to ration sales and raise prices, which in turn, has forced some consumers to switch to other alternatives. Since 2008, major dairy companies have continued to raise the price of retail packs of butter (typically 200 grams – salt added), and with the recent announcement of additional price hikes, the price of one pack of butter, according to an industry paper, will have risen by 15 – 20 percent over the past four years (up JP 60 yen to around JP 400 Yen per pack). With these high prices, cheaper alternative retail products are reportedly selling well. (Note: Retail demand for butter is estimated to share 25 to 30 percent of the total butter in distribution with the remainder going to industrial use). In light of the above, Post revised Japan’s 2012 annual demand for butter from a slight increase projected in the semi-annual to a four percent decline at 78,000 MT, which will likely keep year-ending stocks at the same low level as last year, estimated at 17,000 MT (see Table 6). Note: JFY 2012 Current Access Purchasing List for Dairy Products Announced by the GOJ Feb: 2012 – Butter 4,000 MT Feb. 2012 – Edible Whey: 3,000 MT May 2012 – Dairy Spread: 800 MT May 2012 – Butter Oil: 300 MT May 2012 – Butter: 3,459 MT Aug. 2012 – Butter: 2,000 MT (Additional Imports on top of the current access) Sept. 2012 – Edible Whey: 1,500 MT (by September, the GOJ fully committed the JFY 2012 Dairy current access). NFDM Section- Increased Use of Liquid Non-Fat Concentrate Milk to Ease Tightness in Supply in 2012 Japan’s 2012 total NFDM supply should be smaller than the semi-annual outlook projection, largely due to lower than anticipated increases in annual domestic output. Domestic NFDM output for Jan. – Aug. was up only one percent from the same period of 2011, in contrast to a 10 percent increase in butter output (see Table 4). Post expects this trend will last through this year with annual output projected only up by two percent to 140,000 MT, again in contrast to the eight percent growth projected for butter. A market source attributes the above disparity to efforts by the Japanese dairy industry to focus on the butter shortage and tight NFDM supply simultaneously. Since no NFDM imports were made through JFY 2012 current access, manufacturers increased use of non-fat concentrate milk (which is essentially a cream by-product) as an alternative for dairy products/desserts/drinks. Sales of yogurt have been exceptionally robust in 2012, triggered by a TV program which aired earlier this year highlighting its health benefits. To meet demand, more non-fat concentrate milk was used for yogurt production instead of NFDM (see Table 1 and Table 3). In a month-to-month comparison through August, average market prices of domestic NFDM traded among bulk users remained four to five percent higher over last year indicating tightness in the overall supply for ordinary uses in dairy products, bakery, and desserts/confectionery (see Table 7). Market sources attributed the high price of NFDM as the cause of a 12 percent plunge in processed drinking milk production for Jan. – Aug., (see Table 3), in addition to strong demand for whey protein concentrate (WPC) imported under the JFY 2012 current access (see Note). In light of the above, Post revised Japan’s 2012 annual NFDM from a modest increase projected in the previous semi-annual to unchanged at 179,000 MT from the previous year. With Japan not making any NFDM imports under the current access this fiscal year, stocks, which were already low at the start of this year, have decreased even further and are now projected 17 percent lower at 35,000 MT by the end of the year (see Table 6). Post’s projection for total NFDM imports in 2012 (combined total for school lunches, livestock feed, and other uses) were raised to 32,000 MT to reflect increased imports of feed- use NFDM (see Table 5). Note: Against the total 4,500 MT of WPC imported under the JFY 2012 current access tendered, the total bid volume made by Japanese dairy companies was reportedly four times higher, suggesting that demand for WPC is strong in Japan, especially for health and functional foods. The United States gained a 24 percent share of total bids this year, followed by New Zealand (17 percent), France (19 percent) and Germany (19 percent) respectively. The U.S. success is the result of the US Dairy Export Council’s (USDEC) efforts over the past 10 years in promoting the health attributes and applications of WPC containing different levels of protein. Cheese Section - Japan’s Market to Have Another Record-breaking Year in Growth and Imports in 2012 2012 should be another record breaking year for the Japanese cheese market with total consumption projected to reach its highest level ever, up by six percent to 280,000 MT and total imports, up seven percent to a historic level of 230,000 MT. Overall sales of cheese have reportedly been higher than last year, both for direct consumption at retail, as well as ingredients for foods sold in food service and convenience shops, such as baked goods and pizzas (see Table 1 for average household consumption). A modest increase in fluid milk shipped to cheese factories, averaging up around two percent, is expected to raise Japan’s 2012 annual domestic cheese output to total an estimated 50,000 MT. For the first eight months of this year, Japan’s cheese imports, supported by lower prices, increased 11 percent to 151,850 MT. Imports from the United States (up 31 percent) and New Zealand (up 25 percent) were robust (see Table 9-A and B). American natural cheese is popular in Japan for shredding use for foods such as pizza. Cheese imported under the zero tariff quota increased four percent at 38,469 MT, with New Zealand, up 14 percent, and Australia, down five percent reflecting solid sales of domestic cheese this year (see Note). According to market sources, domestically produced cream and string cheese for direct consumption are also gaining in popularity in the retail sector. Japan’s demand for shredded cheese for pizzas and similar foods, will likely help American cheese reach another record-breaking year with annual imports reaching around 25,000 – 26,000 MT (over 10 percent of total cheese imports). However, industry sources are concerned with the recent upward trend in dairy commodity prices, including cheese, and its potential to slow imports, especially high priced items for direct consumption. Note: As a result of the Uruguay Round trade negotiations, Japan agreed to provide a TRQ - also known as a “Zero Tariff Quota” for imported natural cheeses that are intended to be blended with domestically produced natural cheeses to make processed products (slice packed cheese, string type, etc). For other imports for direct consumption, Japan agreed to liberalize its cheese market by agreeing to tariffication. To protect Japan’s domestic producers and industry, import duties for natural cheeses range from 20 - 30 percent and around 40 percent for processed cheese. The Zero Tariff Quota for JFY2012 is 66,200 MT, up 300 MT from the previous year. Australia and New Zealand are the two major stake-holders in the Zero Tariff Quota category, holding around a 90 percent share every year. Table 1: Japanese Household Consumption of Milk and Dairy Commodities (Two or More person’s household) Average Quantities Purchased per Household 2009 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. 2011 2012 % Chg. Unit Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Aug Jan/Aug Milk Liter 85.05 85.41 0% 80.99 -5% 53.80 54.35 1% Cheese gram 2,395 2,588 8% 2,674 3% 1,708 1,786 5% Butter gram 484 504 4% 501 -1% 333 338 2% Margarine gram 1,387 1,259 -9% 1,256 0% 828 849 3% Powdered Milk gram 451 393 -13% 368 -6% 237 237 0% Bread for Toast/Sandwich gram 19,911 19,956 0% 19,496 -2% 13,065 13,188 1% Average Expenditures per Household 2009 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. 2011 2012 % Chg. Unit Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Aug Jan/Aug Milk Yen 16,569 16,332 -1% 15,448 -5% 10,216 10,204 0% Cheese Yen 4,001 4,080 2% 4,171 2% 2,671 2,757 3% Butter Yen 841 852 1% 868 2% 558 603 8% Margarine Yen 963 874 -9% 879 1% 580 603 4% Yogurt Yen 8,138 8,446 4% 8,717 3% 5,755 6,920 20% Milk Beverages Yen 1,200 1,229 2% 1,285 5% 837 868 4% Lactic Acid Bacteria Drink Yen 3,239 3,381 4% 3,392 0% 2,279 2,388 5% Powdered Milk Yen 832 717 -14% 715 0% 477 457 -4% Bread for Toast/Sandwich Yen 8,927 8,572 -4% 8,633 1% 5,761 5,777 0% Confectionaries Yen 80,403 78,861 -2% 76,801 -3% 51,000 52,213 2% Source: Household Statistic Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Compiled from E-Stats Data System by Post) Table 2: Government Subsidy Payment and Eligible Fluid Milk Quota for Processing Use Unit Subsidy Payment Eligible Volume Yen/Kg. Type Million MT JFY1995 11.49 deficiency payment 2.30 JFY1996 11.49 deficiency payment 2.30 JFY1997 10.87 deficiency payment 2.40 JFY1998 10.84 deficiency payment 2.40 JFY1999 10.80 deficiency payment 2.40 JFY2000 10.30 deficiency payment 2.40 JFY2001 10.30 direct payment 2.27 JFY2002 11.00 direct payment 2.20 JFY2003 10.74 direct payment 2.10 JFY2004 10.52 direct payment 2.10 JFY2005 10.40 direct payment 2.05 JFY2006 10.40 direct payment 2.03 JFY2007 10.55 direct payment 1.98 JFY 2008 11.55 direct payment 1.95 JFY 2008 (Revised) 11.85 direct payment 1.95 JFY 2009 11.85 direct payment 1.95 JFY 2010 11.85 direct payment 1.85 JFY 2011 11.95 direct payment 1.85 JFY 2012 12.20 direct payment 1.83 Source: ALIC Monthly Table 3: Japanese Utilization of Fluid Milk for Drinking Milk Products Unit: 1,000 Kilo Liters 2009 2010 2011 % Chg. 2011 2012 % Chg. Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Aug Jan/Aug Total Drinking Milk Products 3,804 3747 3652 -3% 2,414 2371 -2% Regular Milk 3,180 3,069 3,064 0% 2,017 2,019 0% Processed Milk 625 678 589 -13% 398 352 -12% Milk Beverages 1,180 1,210 1,276 5% 836 876 5% Fermented Milk 821 841 843 0% 554 670 21% Lactic Acid Bacteria Drinks 199 184 178 -3% 124 114 -8% Note: Processed Milk: low fat, high fat, vitamin and mineral fortified, calcium enriched Milk Beverages: flavored milk (coffee and fruits flavored) Fermented Milk: Yogurt etc. Source: ALIC Monthly Table 4: Japanese Production of Dairy Commodities Unit: Metric Ton 2009 2010 2011 % Chg. 2011 2012 % Chg. Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Aug Jan/Aug Butter 80,998 73,621 62,845 -15% 45,200 49,920 10% Cream 104,898 107,441 111,663 4% 70,366 72,788 3% Whole Milk Powder 12,565 13,250 14,302 8% 10,968 9,443 -14% Prepared Milk Powder 34,914 32,942 27,559 -16% 19,463 15,124 -22% Skim Milk Powder (NFDM) 167,256 155,625 137,141 -12% 95,047 96,326 1% Ice Cream (Unit: kilo liter) 128,614 130,589 137,072 5% 92,994 94,709 2% Source: ALIC Monthly Table 5: Japanese Imports of Non Fat Dry Milk (NFDM) Unit: Metric Ton 2009 2010 2011 % Chg. 2011 2012 % Chg. Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Aug Jan/Aug For School Lunch Program 2,109 1,983 1,959 -1% 1,459 1,462 0% For Feeds 22,143 24,909 22,264 -11% 14,747 18,488 25% For Other Use (Current Access) 10,082 3,292 3,014 -8% 2,113 1,925 -9% Total NFDM Imports 34,333 30,184 27,237 -10% 18,319 21,875 19% Source: ALIC Monthly Table 6: Monthly Ending Stocks of Butter and NFDM Unit: 1,000 Metric Ton Butter 2010 2011 % Chg. 2012 % Chg. Jan 32.6 22.55 -31% 18.93 -16% Feb 32.8 21.14 -36% 18.87 -11% Mar 32.6 20.61 -37% 19.08 -7% Apr 32.5 21.34 -34% 19.4 -9% May 34.1 22.96 -33% 20.9 -9% Jun 34.5 22.66 -34% 21.5 -5% July 33.9 21.84 -36% 21.5 -1% Aug 33.1 22.95 -31% Sept 30.0 21.82 -27% Oct 27.3 20.65 -24% Nov 24.4 18.56 -24% Dec 21.0 16.51 -21% NFDM 2010 2011 % Chg. 2012 Jan 65.1 60.69 -7% 45.91 -24% Feb 67.7 60.64 -10% 46.44 -23% Mar 69.7 58.70 -16% 47.62 -19% Apr 71.8 58.17 -19% 48.2 -17% May 74.8 58.22 -22% 48.2 -17% Jun 74.5 54.70 -27% 47.1 -14% July 71.3 50.34 -29% 44.9 -11% Aug 68.6 47.11 -31% Sept 61.4 42.88 -30% Oct 57.6 40.39 -30% Nov 56.3 39.09 -31% Dec 57.4 41.81 -27% Source: ALIC Monthly Table 7: Average Wholesale Price of Dairy Products for Bulk Users Butter Unit: JP Yen per Kg. 2010 2011 % Chg. 2012 % Chg. Jan 1,081 1,062 -2% 1,140 7% Feb 1,073 1,057 -1% 1,142 8% Mar 1,074 1,065 -1% 1,158 9% Apr 1,060 1,069 1% 1,172 10% May 1,057 1,077 2% 1,179 9% Jun 1,051 1,087 3% 1,189 9% July 1,049 1,094 4% 1,192 9% Aug 1,049 1,110 6% Sept 1,050 1,120 7% Oct 1,050 1,129 8% Nov 1,050 1,133 8% Dec 1,051 1,138 8% Non Fat Dry Milk Unit: JP Yen per 25 Kg. 2010 2011 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. Jan 14,981 14,564 -3% 15,200 4% Feb 14,955 14,512 -3% 15,211 5% Mar 14,957 14,515 -3% 15,236 5% Apr 14,922 14,584 -2% 15,246 5% May 14,884 14,641 -2% 15,251 4% Jun 14,751 14,701 0% 15,243 4% July 14,656 14,736 1% 15,264 4% Aug 14,610 14,864 2% Sept 14,593 14,987 3% Oct 14,568 15,085 4% Nov 14,571 15,140 4% Dec 14,574 15,156 4% YTD Jan - July 104,106 102,253 -2% Source: ALIC Monthly Table 8-A: Japanese Imports of Butter YTD Annual Series: 2007 - 2011, Year To Date: 08/2011 & 08/2012 Quantity (Metric Ton/Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change (11/10) 2011 Share 08/2011 08/2012 % Change World MT 333 2,032 14,026 590% 100% 9,914 6,485 -35% United States MT 26 173 5,016 2799% 36% 3,699 886 -76% New Zealand MT 143 474 4,974 949% 35% 3,806 3,181 -16% Netherlands MT 0 860 2,037 137% 15% 1,689 672 -60% Australia MT 87 269 931 246% 7% 89 1,638 1740% Germany MT 2 111 703 533% 5% 503 0 -100% France MT 70 136 358 163% 3% 125 97 -22% Others MT 5 9 7 -22% 0% 3 11 267% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas - Japan Customs Table 8-B: Average C&F Price of Imported Butter YTD Annual Series: 2007 - 2011, Year To Date: 08/2011 & 08/2012 Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 08/2011 08/2012 %Change World per MT 6,199.29 4,766.38 5,554.03 17% 5,648.68 3,580.09 -37% United States per MT 5,161.88 4,351.16 5,533.35 27% 5,463.65 3,662.34 -33% New Zealand per MT 2,442.61 3,941.29 5,029.20 28% 5,298.83 3,343.28 -37% Netherlands per MT 0.00 4,384.05 6,121.21 40% 6,131.94 3,949.89 -36% Australia per MT 4,914.13 4,824.76 5,241.40 9% 7,629.06 3,354.08 -56% Germany per MT 16,604.69 4,275.81 6,393.38 50% 6,410.43 15,271.46 138% France per MT 15,556.11 10,659.50 9,025.00 -15% 10,736.62 11,361.74 6% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas - Japan Customs Table 9-A: Japanese Imports of Cheese YTD Annual Series: 2007 - 2011, Year To Date: 08/2011 & 08/2012 Quantity (Metric Ton/Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change 2011 Share 08/2011 08/2012 %Change World MT 184,242 199,080 215,262 8% 100% 136,585 151,850 11% Australia MT 84,059 85,120 90,062 6% 42% 57,271 59,876 5% New Zealand MT 49,751 52,098 56,329 8% 26% 35,423 44,167 25% United States MT 6,885 13,672 21,424 57% 10% 13,653 17,852 31% Germany MT 10,185 11,203 9,363 -16% 4% 5,969 5,264 -12% France MT 7,141 8,150 9,023 11% 4% 5,692 5,905 4% Denmark MT 8,156 7,769 8,295 7% 4% 5,385 5,097 -5% Italy MT 5,915 6,241 6,584 5% 3% 4,116 5,082 23% Netherlands MT 5,626 6,605 6,373 -4% 3% 3,908 3,785 -3% Argentina MT 4,239 4,248 4,057 -4% 2% 2,682 2,262 -16% Others MT 2,285 3,974 3,752 -6% 2% 2,486 2,560 3% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas - Japan Customs Table 9-B: Average C&F Price of Imported Cheese YTD Annual Series: 2007 - 2011, Year To Date: 08/2011 & 08/2012 Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit 2009 2010 2011 % Change (11/10) 08/2011 08/2012 % Change World Per MT 4,414.13 4,711.96 5,174.53 10% 5,071.95 5,044.66 -1% Australia Per MT 3,649.12 4,012.20 4,462.41 11% 4,359.93 4,562.21 5% New Zealand Per MT 3,745.99 4,179.03 4,510.62 8% 4,433.32 4,402.76 -1% United States Per MT 7,128.57 5,548.99 5,261.59 -5% 5,058.64 4,810.12 -5% Germany Per MT 3,703.39 3,826.18 4,593.53 20% 4,567.70 4,306.02 -6% France Per MT 9,371.43 9,617.14 10,102.54 5% 9,732.29 9,649.64 -1% Denmark Per MT 6,347.26 6,582.97 7,300.70 11% 7,257.44 6,862.16 -5% Netherlands Per MT 4,416.49 4,424.31 5,195.67 17% 5,267.52 4,865.81 -8% Italy Per MT 10,218.83 10,158.67 11,585.84 14% 11,630.80 10,598.69 -9% Argentina Per MT 3,137.10 3,662.83 4,257.50 16% 4,142.60 4,269.50 3% Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas - Japan Customs Table 10: Japanese National Dairy Herd Year Beginning Inventory (as of February 1) 2011 2012 % Change All Prefectures Number of Farms (Farms) 21,000 20,100 -4% Number of National Dairy Herd Total (Heads) 1,467,300 1,449,000 -1% Total Cow(Heads) 932,900 942,600 1% Cows in milk (Heads) 804,700 812,700 1% Dry Cows (Heads) 128,200 129,900 1% Heifer (Heads) 534,400 506,400 -5% Hokkaido Number of Farms (Farms) 7,500 7,270 -3% Number of Hokkaido Dairy Herd Total (1,000 Heads) 827,900 821,900 -1% Total Cow 479,600 495,400 3% Cows in milk (Heads) 407,000 421,200 3% Dry Cows (Heads) 72,600 74,200 2% Heifer (Heads) 348,300 326,600 -6% Other Prefectures Number of Farms (Farms) 13,500 12,830 -5% Number of Hokkaido Dairy Herd Total (1,000 Heads) 639,400 627,100 -2% Total Cow 453,300 447,200 -1% Cows in milk (Heads) 397,700 391,500 -2% Dry Cows (Heads) 55,600 55,700 0% Heifer (Heads) 186,100 179,800 -3% Note: 2012 data are still preliminary. Source: MAFF Livestock Statistics
Posted: 29 November 2012

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