Dairy and Products Semi-annual

An Expert's View about Dairy Products in Japan

Posted on: 28 Jun 2012

Post forecasts a moderate recovery in 2012 for Japan’s allocation of fluid milk for processing use, and as in the previous year.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 5/31/2012 GAIN Report Number: JA2011 Japan Dairy and Products Semi-annual 2012 Japan Milk and Dairy Products Market Outlook and 2011 Situation Summary Updated Approved By: Benjamin Petlock, Agricultural Attaché Prepared By: Kakuyu Obara, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Post forecasts a moderate recovery in 2012 for Japan’s allocation of fluid milk for processing use, and as in the previous year, sizable amounts still being used for cream and cheese production. Japan’s butter supply outlook remains uncertain. Despite Japan’s early commitments for the current access to import 7,459 MT of butter, (on top of the sizable 2011 purchases of 14,024 MT) the annual supply may still be unable to meet any increases in demand that are forecast. Japan’s 2012 total cheese imports are expected to expand more than previously forecast due to weakening EU and Oceania prices. Despite this increased competition, Japan’s imports of American cheeses are forecast to exceed last year’s level. Commodities: Dairy, Milk, Fluid Dairy, Butter Dairy, Milk, Nonfat Dry Dairy, Cheese Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Fluid Milk PS&D table Dairy, Milk, Fluid Japan 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Cows In Milk 830 830 805 805 800 815 Cows Milk Production 7,721 7,721 7,450 7,474 7,500 7,590 Other Milk Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Production 7,721 7,721 7,450 7,474 7,500 7,590 Other Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 7,721 7,721 7,450 7,474 7,500 7,590 Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fluid Use Dom. Consum. 4,150 4,150 4,060 4,058 4,050 4,080 Factory Use Consum. 3,499 3,499 3,320 3,351 3,380 3,440 Feed Use Dom. Consum. 72 72 70 65 70 70 Total Dom. Consumption 7,721 7,721 7,450 7,474 7,500 7,590 Total Distribution 7,721 7,721 7,450 7,474 7,500 7,590 1000 HEAD, 1000 MT Butter PS&D Table Dairy, Butter Japan 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 30 30 21 21 19 17 Production 74 74 67 63 70 70 Other Imports 2 2 14 14 12 12 Total Imports 2 2 14 14 12 12 Total Supply 106 106 102 98 101 99 Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Domestic Consumption 85 85 83 81 82 82 Total Use 85 85 83 81 82 82 Ending Stocks 21 21 19 17 19 17 Total Distribution 106 106 102 98 101 99 1000 MT NFDM PS&D Table Dairy, Milk, Nonfat Dry Japan 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 58 58 57 57 42 42 Production 156 156 140 137 150 150 Other Imports 30 30 25 27 40 30 Total Imports 30 30 25 27 40 30 Total Supply 244 244 222 221 232 222 Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Human Dom. Consumption 162 162 160 157 160 160 Other Use, Losses 25 25 20 22 25 25 Total Dom. Consumption 187 187 180 179 185 185 Total Use 187 187 180 179 185 185 Ending Stocks 57 57 42 42 47 37 Total Distribution 244 244 222 221 232 222 1000 MT Cheese PS&D Table Dairy, Cheese Japan 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 15 15 15 15 15 15 Production 48 48 48 49 49 50 Other Imports 199 199 205 215 210 225 Total Imports 199 199 205 215 210 225 Total Supply 262 262 268 279 274 290 Other Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Human Dom. Consumption 247 247 253 264 259 275 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 247 247 253 264 259 275 Total Use 247 247 253 264 259 275 Ending Stocks 15 15 15 15 15 15 Total Distribution 262 262 268 279 274 290 1000 MT Author Defined: Preface: This report is an update to JA 1047, the 2011 Japan Dairy and Products Annual (12/15/2011). Post’s previous PS&D preliminary projections for 2011 and 2012 annual outlook has been further revised based on the latest calendar year data (Jan. – Mar., 2012) available for domestic production, stocks, and imports published (preliminarily) by the Government of Japan (GOJ). The data discussed in this report are on a calendar year basis unless specified otherwise. For convenience sake, Post’s reference to Japan’s current access for dairy commodities, so called the minimum access, and dairy subsidies is based on the Japanese fiscal year (JFY: Starting April and ending March next year ). In the last Uruguay Round Trade Talks, GOJ agreed to the commitment of import purchases for designated dairy commodities through state trade (up to total milk equivalent of 137,000 MT), which include butter, NFDM, edible whey, butter oil, and dairy spread. The conversion coefficient Post used to calculate milk equivalent volumes for each commodity are: NFDM (6.48), Edible Whey Powder (6.84), Butter (12.34), Dairy Spread (12.34), and Butter Oil (15.05) 2012 Market Outlook for Fluid Milk, NFDM, Butter, and Cheese (Revised) Fluid Milk Section: - Weak Recovery of National Outputs May Cause Continued Lack of Fluid Milk for Processing Use Post still projects that that more cows were put into milking at the beginning of 2012, up around one percent at 815,000 heads (unchanged from the annual report). Readers should note that Japan’s 2012 year-beginning dairy herd inventory data will be publicized sometime in July and could change the above projection. Japan’s 2012 feed distribution, production, and supply for dairy cows have almost been restored back to a normal cycle, which should slightly improve Japan’s average output per cow more than last year at around 9,313 kilo. In light of the above, Japan’s national 2012 milk outputs are now projected to rise by one to two percent at around 7.59 million MT (just marginally above Post’s previous projection), which is still two percent lower when compared to 2010. Hokkaido’s total output is projected up by one to two percent and this province will continue to account for more than 50 percent of the national output. The combined outputs of other regions may also rise by one percent or more, a small rebound (previously projected as a small decline) from a six percent plunge experienced last year. A 2012 first quarter recovery in Japan’s factory use of fluid milk points to an improved outlook for overall consumption of drinking milk products for this year. Based on the above, Post adjusted Japan’s 2012 utilization of fluid milk for drinking use slightly upward to 4.08 million MT (up one percent from the 2011 actual). For fluid milk for processing use, Post still projects modest growth at 3.44 million MT (up three percent from the 2011 actual). As last year’s solid demand for domestic cream and cheese may continue through 2012, the same or higher amounts of fluid milk for processing use, especially in Hokkaido, may be allocated for these products (Table 1 and Table 4). Furthermore, shipments of fluid milk from Hokkaido to other regions for drinking use are reportedly persisting. Given these competing demands, securing sufficient amounts of fluid milk for domestic butter and NFDM production continues to be a major issue for the government and the domestic dairy industry. To encourage dairy farmers to divert their milk for more butter and NFDM production, GOJ raised its subsidy payment for fluid milk for processing use for JFY 2012 by two percent (or JP 12.2 yen per kilo of fluid milk) by setting the eligible quota at 1.83 million MT (See Table 2). However, despite this incentive, producers still seem to prefer cream and cheese production. Butter Section: - Continued Butter Supply Deficit Met by the Current Access Imports in 2012 As outlined in the Fluid Milk Section, Japan’s 2012 butter supply outlook is looking increasingly uncertain. There is doubt if national butter outputs will meet Post’s previously projected level of 70,000 MT (up 11 percent over the 2011 actual) as this depends on availability of fluid milk later this year. First quarter production rose only one percent when compared to the same period last year (Table 4). Post has left its butter projection unchanged, assuming some recovery will occur later this year. However, Japan’s butter demand outlook was adjusted and will remain contracted with only a small recovery projected at this time. Therefore, Post revised total consumption, lowering it by 2,000 MT to 82,000 MT (up by one percent from the 2011 actual), and also lowered year ending stocks, down by 2,000 MT from the year beginning to 17,000 MT (unchanged from the 2011 year ending level). With the above shortfalls, Post estimates that Japan would still need to import approximately 12,000 MT of butter this year. GOJ has made a series of announcements to commit the JFY 2012 dairy current access per the below list, which included total 7,459 MT of frozen butter imports. This is in addition to Japan’s total butter imports of 14,026 MT made last year with the majority being the current access butter (Table 8-A and 8-B). Even then, in order to meet the projected demand, GOJ may still have to make some additional butter imports (up to 4,000 MT estimated by Post) in excess of the current access at some points this year. Feb. 2012 – Butter: 4,000 MT Feb. 2012 – Edible Whey: 3,000 MT (Partial committed out of total 4,500 MT of the edible whey access) May 2012 – Dairy Spread: 800 MT May 2012 – Butter Oil: 300 MT May 2012 – Butter: 3,459 MT (Please note that by the end of May, GOJ fully committed the JFY 2012 dairy current access and only 1,500 MT of edible whey is left to fill its commitment this fiscal year.) NFDM Section - Tighter NFDM Supply Outlook Forecast for 2012 As with butter, not enough fluid milk is available for the domestic production of NFDM this year (Table 4). First quarter production was five percent lower when compared to the same period last year. Therefore, it is uncertain if Japan will be able to raise national NFDM outputs to the previously projected level of 150,000 MT (up 10 percent from the 2011 actual) this year. However, unlike butter, the current situation does not yet seem to require additional NFDM imports by GOJ. Japan’s 2012 demand for ingredients for edible-use NFDM is projected to remain unchanged from the previous forecast at 160,000 MT (up two percent from 2011 actual). Post has only changed feed use NFDM imports, up by 2,000 MT to 25,000 MT, to reflect the recovery in Japan’s overall livestock sector (up 14 percent from the 2011 actual). This makes Japan’s 2012 combined total NFDM utilization and demand to be 185,000 MT (up four percent from the 2011 actual). At this time, use of NFDM has been low for processed milk (drinking milk category), but high for yogurt (fermented milk category) and milk beverages to meet solid demands for these products. Stocks are projected to decline to 37,000 MT by the year’s end, down 12 percent from the year’s beginning. GOJ may need to import additional NFDM (potentially a couple of thousands MT), within one to two years to replenish low monthly stocks. Cheese Section: - Japan’s Cheese Market to Sustain Modest Growth in 2012 Post revised its previous growth projections for Japan’s 2012 cheese supply and demand further upward, reflecting a stronger market. Post raised its import projection by 10,000 MT to 225,000 MT (up five percent from 2011 actual). Post left domestic cheese production unchanged at 50,000 MT (up two percent from 2011 actual). Likewise, Japan’s 2012 total cheese consumption estimate is raised to 275,000 MT, up four percent from the last year. Posts made these revisions based on first quarter imports which, supported by solid household and food service demand (Table 9-A and 9-B), were up 12 percent when compared to last year. Additionally, Post has revised its import projections, given falling world market prices for cheese due to an improved EU and Oceania supply situation combined with weakening Euro and Oceania currencies against the Japanese Yen. U.S. cheese is expected to sustain its presence in the highly competitive Japanese cheese market, and is projected to grow by 12 percent in 2012 to 24,000 MT, easily surpassing last year’s record high imports. This increase is supported by the strong demand of the Japanese food industry, as well as successful marketing by USDEC. 2011 Japan Fluid Milk, Butter, NFDM and Cheese Market Situation Summary (Updated) Japan’s 2011 national fluid milk outputs were down three percent to 7.474 million MT, mirroring a similar decline in the number of cows in milk at the beginning of the year (805,000 heads, down three percent). Fluid milk allocated for drinking use was down two percent at 4.058 million MT, as well as for processing use, down by four percent at 3.351 million MT. Regionally, Hokkaido’s total outputs were down one percent at 3.876 million MT, accounting for 52 percent of the national total. Combined outputs of other regions, including the earthquake stricken Tohoku and Kanto regions, were also down six percent to 3.598 million MT over the previous year. In 2011, Hokkaido fluid milk was diverted to earthquake-effected regions suffering from a temporary supply deficit of fluid milk for drinking use. Consequently, this made fluid milk available for processing in Hokkaido scarce, especially for butter and NFDM production. Of the total 3.351 million MT of fluid milk in 2011 allocated for processing use, 1.204 million MT (Equivalent to 111,681 MT of cream output) of fluid milk was used for cream production, up four percent from the previous year. For domestic natural cheese production, 0.492 million MT of fluid milk (Equivalent of 49,000 MT of cheese output) was diverted, a two percent rise. For JFY 2011, GOJ set a quota of 1.85 million MT for its fluid milk subsidy program for processing use. However the quota was underutilized by 12 – 13 percent due to a lack of fluid milk, which significantly lowered Japan’s 2011 domestic outputs of butter (63,000 MT, down 15 percent) and NFDM (137,000 MT, down 12 percent). GOJ imported 14,026 MT of butter mostly through its JFY 2011 dairy current access to alleviate the butter shortage. The United States accounted 36 percent of Japan’s total 2011 butter imports, followed by New Zealand (35 percent) and the Netherlands (15 percent). Japan’s 2011 market demand for cheese rose by seven percent from the previous year to an estimated 264,000 MT. Total imports also rose by eight percent to 215,256 MT with Oceania cheeses (Australia, up six percent, New Zealand, up 26 percent) accounting for 66 percent of the total. 2011 was a remarkable year for American cheeses. The United States was the third largest supplier to Japan, renewing its 2010 record, with imports surging 57 percent to 21,424 MT. Imports from the United States were supported by its competitive offer prices (partly due to a strong yen) and adequate supplies to meet the strong demand for shredding. Imports from EU countries, mainly for cheeses for direct consumption, generally stagnated due to high prices. Table 1: Japanese Household Consumption of Milk and Dairy Commodities (Two or More person’s household) Milk Powdered Milk Butter Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity Expenditure Quantity (JP Yen) (liter) (JP Yen) (gram) (JP Yen) (gram) CY 2009 16,569 0% 85.05 -1% 832 -4% 451 -5% 841 5% 484 5% CY 2010 16,322 -1% 85.41 0% 717 -14% 393 -13% 852 1% 504 4% CY 2011 Jan. 1,161 -7% 6.20 -7% 70 -3% 33 -18% 67 3% 41 17% Feb. 1,122 -7% 6.03 -5% 60 -6% 26 -28% 87 7% 52 13% Mar. 1,246 -4% 6.60 -3% 87 38% 46 59% 83 2% 49 2% Apr. 1,248 -4% 6.37 -3% 50 -2% 27 -10% 70 3% 43 8% May 1,308 -5% 6.69 -2% 47 -13% 27 -7% 68 -3% 41 -5% Jun. 1,289 -9% 6.90 -7% 60 25% 25 25% 63 -6% 37 -5% July 1,421 -3% 7.67 -3% 50 -9% 26 -13% 55 0% 32 -3% Aug. 1,421 -8% 7.34 -11% 53 0% 27 -10% 65 16% 38 12% Sept. 1,353 -8% 7.13 -8% 62 15% 35 35% 67 3% 38 -3% Oct. 1,350 -3% 6.81 -8% 59 -5% 33 -15% 74 -6% 42 -13% Nov. 1,257 -2% 6.69 0% 59 -17% 29 -29% 74 -5% 38 -21% Dec. 1,271 -4% 6.56 -4% 58 -17% 34 -21% 95 9% 50 -2% CY 2011 Total 15,447 -5% 81 -5% 715 0% 368 -6% 868 2% 501 -1% CY 2012 Jan. 1,170 1% 6.37 3% 58 -17% 32 -3% 73 9% 41 0% Feb. 1,163 4% 6.15 2% 61 2% 30 15% 93 7% 53 2% Mar. 1,231 -1% 6.42 -3% 50 -43% 28 -39% 78 -6% 42 -14% CY 2011 Jan/Mar 3,529 19 217 105 237 142 CY 2012 Jan/Mar 3,564 1% 19 1% 169 -22% 90 -14% 244 3% 136 -4% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and communication Bureau Cheese Margarine Toast Bread Expenditure Quantity (gram) Expenditure Quantity (gram) Expenditure Quantity (gram) CY 2009 4,001 9% 2,395 6% 963 11% 1,387 -3% 8,927 0% 19,911 2% CY 2010 4,080 2% 2,588 8% 874 -9% 1,259 -9% 8,572 -4% 19,956 0% CY 2011 Jan. 319 0% 214 5% 66 -10% 93 -10% 666 -3% 1,526 -4% Feb. 332 1% 207 -4% 71 -5% 104 -5% 681 -3% 1,553 -4% Mar. 336 -8% 221 -3% 82 -7% 122 -7% 785 0% 1,771 -4% Apr. 337 -2% 214 -1% 78 3% 105 5% 770 0% 1,692 -5% May 360 6% 231 9% 76 -6% 107 -4% 757 -3% 1,714 -4% Jun. 337 5% 205 1% 70 -1% 95 -12% 716 -3% 1,661 -1% July 323 8% 205 8% 68 5% 101 11% 691 -3% 1,581 -7% Aug. 327 9% 211 7% 69 6% 101 7% 695 5% 1,567 1% Sept. 345 6% 226 10% 71 6% 110 10% 690 3% 1,557 -4% Oct. 353 0% 236 5% 76 6% 104 -4% 733 3% 1,678 0% Nov. 363 0% 233 0% 73 7% 108 11% 720 7% 1,624 7% Dec. 440 5% 271 4% 79 8% 106 0% 729 6% 1,572 -2% 2011 Jan/Dec 4,172 2% 2,674 3% 879 1% 1,256 0% 8,633 1% 19,496 -2% CY 2012 Jan. 332 4% 219 2% 70 6% 97 4% 688 3% 1,517 -1% Feb. 343 3% 226 9% 82 15% 112 8% 724 6% 1,651 6% Mar. 362 8% 223 1% 87 6% 129 6% 781 -1% 1,736 -2% 2011 Jan/Mar 987 642 219 848 2,132 4,850 2011 Jan/Mar 1,037 5% 668 4% 239 9% 828 -2% 2,193 3% 4,904 1% Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau Yogurt Confectionaries Milk Beverages Expenditure Expenditure penditure Quantity Quant Ex ity Quantity (JP Yen) (JP Yen) (JP Yen) CY 2009 8,138 4% 80,403 2% 1,200 CY 2010 8,446 4% 78,861 -2% 1,229 2% Cy 2011 Jan. 666 11% 6,078 -5% 97 15% Feb. 681 12% 6,252 -2% 87 4% Mar. 785 11% 6,634 -8% 100 14% Apr. 770 5% 6,220 0% 96 3% May 757 0% 6,570 -2% 103 -5% Jun. 716 -7% 5,663 -4% 112 -1% July 691 -8% 6,333 -1% 118 4% Aug. 695 -4% 7,250 -4% 124 5% Sept. 690 -7% 5,782 0% 112 4% Oct. 733 2% 5,835 -2% 117 6% Nov. 720 6% 5,821 -1% 108 9% Dec. 729 10% 8,359 -1% 111 1% Total 8,633 2% 76,797 -3% 1,285 5% CY 2012 Jan. 688 3% 6179 2% 107 10% Feb. 724 6% 6421 3% 95 9% Mar. 781 -1% 7133 8% 108 8% 2011 Jan/Mar 2,132 18,964 284 20112 % Jan/M 2,193 3% 9,733 4% a 1 310 9r Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication Bureau Table 2: Government Subsidy Payment and Eligible Fluid Milk Quota for Processing Use Unit Subsidy Payment Eligible Volume Yen/Kg. Type Million MT JFY1995 11.49 deficiency payment 2.30 JFY1996 11.49 deficiency payment 2.30 JFY1997 10.87 deficiency payment 2.40 JFY1998 10.84 deficiency payment 2.40 JFY1999 10.80 deficiency payment 2.40 JFY2000 10.30 deficiency payment 2.40 JFY2001 10.30 direct payment 2.27 JFY2002 11.00 direct payment 2.20 JFY2003 10.74 direct payment 2.10 JFY2004 10.52 direct payment 2.10 JFY2005 10.40 direct payment 2.05 JFY2006 10.40 direct payment 2.03 JFY2007 10.55 direct payment 1.98 JFY 2008 11.55 direct payment 1.95 JFY 2008 (Revised) 11.85 direct payment 1.95 JFY 2009 11.85 direct payment 1.95 JFY 2010 11.85 direct payment 1.85 JFY 2011 11.95 direct payment 1.85 JFY 2012 12.20 direct payment 1.83 Source: ALIC Monthly Table 3: Japanese Utilization of Fluid Milk for Drinking Milk Products Unit: 1,000 Kilo Liters 2009 2010 2011 % Chg. 2011 2012 % Chg. Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Mar Jan/Mar Total Drinking Milk Products 3,804 3747 3653 -3% 862 868 1% Regular Milk 3,180 3,069 3,064 0% 715 736 3% Processed Milk 625 678 589 -13% 147 131 -11% Milk Beverages 1,180 1,210 1,279 6% 268 286 7% Fermented Milk 821 841 843 0% 186 239 28% Lactic Acid Bacteria Drinks 199 184 178 -3% 37 38 3% Note: Processed Milk: low fat, high fat, vitamin and mineral fortified, calcium enriched Milk Beverages: flavored milk (coffee and fruits flavored) Fermented Milk: Yogurt etc. Source: ALIC Monthly Table 4: Japanese Production of Dairy Commodities Unit: Metric Ton 2009 2010 2011 % Chg. 2011 2012 % Chg. Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Mar Jan/Mar Butter 80,998 73,621 62,845 -15% 19,887 20,113 1% Cream 104,898 107,441 111,681 4% 25,502 28,031 10% Whole Milk Powder 12,565 13,250 14,302 8% 4,832 3,696 -24% Prepared Milk Powder 34,914 32,942 27,559 -16% 7,481 4,752 -36% Skim Milk Powder (NFDM) 167,256 155,625 137,141 -12% 41,265 39,036 -5% Ice Cream (Unit: kilo liter) 128,614 130,589 137,072 5% 24,724 27,078 10% Source: ALIC Monthly Table 5: Japanese Imports of Non Fat Dry Milk (NFDM) Unit: Metric Ton 2009 2010 2011 % Chg. 2011 2012 % Chg. Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Dec Jan/Mar Jan/Mar For School Lunch Program 2,109 1,983 1,959 -1% 446 466 4% For Feeds 22,143 24,909 22,264 -11% 6,618 10,032 52% For Other Use (Current Access) 10,082 3,292 3,014 -8% 907 850 -6% Total NFDM Imports 34,333 30,184 27,237 -10% 7,971 11,349 42% Source: ALIC Monthly Table 6: Monthly Ending Stocks of Butter and NFDM Unit: 1,000 Metric Ton Butter 2007 2008 % Chg. 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. 2012 % Chg. Jan 24.1 19.7 -18% 25.4 29% 32.6 29% 22.55 -31% 18.93 -16% Feb 23.6 19.4 -18% 26.7 38% 32.8 23% 21.14 -36% 18.87 -11% Mar 23.2 19.4 -16% 28.1 45% 32.6 16% 20.61 -37% 19.08 -7% Apr 23.1 19.9 -14% 29.6 49% 32.5 10% 21.34 -34% May 23.8 21.2 -11% 32.3 52% 34.1 6% 22.96 -33% Jun 24.4 21.1 -13% 33.8 59% 34.5 2% 22.66 -34% July 23.7 20.7 -13% 34.0 64% 33.9 0% 21.84 -36% Aug 23.6 22.9 -3% 35.0 53% 33.1 -6% 22.95 -31% Sept 20.3 22.4 10% 34.3 53% 30.0 -12% 21.82 -27% Oct 18.8 21.9 17% 32.9 50% 27.3 -17% 20.65 -24% Nov 16.4 22.3 36% 31.3 40% 24.4 -22% 18.56 -24% Dec 15.8 22.5 42% 29.6 32% 21.0 -29% 16.51 -21% NFDM 2007 2008 % Chg. 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. 2012 Jan 68.8 41.5 -40% 36.1 -13% 65.1 80% 60.69 -7% 45.91 -24% Feb 69.2 42.6 -38% 38.7 -9% 67.7 75% 60.64 -10% 46.44 -23% Mar 68.3 42.8 -37% 43.1 1% 69.7 62% 58.70 -16% 47.62 -19% Apr 68.9 43.4 -37% 49.5 14% 71.8 45% 58.17 -19% May 69.1 43.3 -37% 55.1 27% 74.8 36% 58.22 -22% Jun 65.3 42.1 -36% 55.8 33% 74.5 34% 54.70 -27% July 59.7 38.4 -36% 54.5 42% 71.3 31% 50.34 -29% Aug 53.9 35.0 -35% 55.0 57% 68.6 25% 47.11 -31% Sept 46.0 29.9 -35% 53.6 79% 61.4 15% 42.88 -30% Oct 40.3 27.6 -32% 52.9 92% 57.6 9% 40.39 -30% Nov 36.7 27.2 -26% 53.8 98% 56.3 5% 39.09 -31% Dec 38.1 30.5 -20% 58.3 91% 57.4 -2% 41.81 -27% Source: ALIC Monthly Table 7: Average Wholesale Price of Dairy Products for Bulk users Unit: JP Yen per Kg. Butter 2008 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. 2012 % Chg. Jan 984 1,164 18% 1,081 -7% 1,062 -2% 1,140 7% Feb 995 1,176 18% 1,073 -9% 1,057 -1% 1,142 8% Mar 1,016 1,177 16% 1,074 -9% 1,065 -1% 1,158 9% Apr 1,060 1,178 11% 1,060 -10% 1,069 1% May 1,074 1,173 9% 1,057 -10% 1,077 2% Jun 1,091 1,158 6% 1,051 -9% 1,087 3% July 1,124 1,164 4% 1,049 -10% 1,094 4% Aug 1,136 1,131 0% 1,049 -7% 1,110 6% Sept 1,143 1,114 -3% 1,050 -6% 1,120 7% Oct 1,154 1,102 -5% 1,050 -5% 1,129 8% Nov 1,162 1,085 -7% 1,050 -3% 1,133 8% Dec 1,163 1,086 -7% 1,051 -3% 1,138 8% NFDM 2008 2009 % Chg. 2010 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. 2011 % Chg. Jan 13,300 14,994 13% 14,981 0% 14,564 -3% 15,200 4% Feb 13,327 15,033 13% 14,955 -1% 14,512 -3% 15,211 5% Mar 13,505 15,160 12% 14,957 -1% 14,515 -3% 15,236 5% Apr 14,096 15,226 8% 14,922 -2% 14,584 -2% May 14,311 15,254 7% 14,884 -2% 14,641 -2% Jun 14,646 15,241 4% 14,751 -3% 14,701 0% July 14,697 15,172 3% 14,656 -3% 14,736 1% Aug 14,769 15,030 2% 14,610 -3% 14,864 2% Sept 14,831 14,949 1% 14,593 -2% 14,987 3% Oct 14,951 14,943 0% 14,568 -3% 15,085 4% Nov 14,953 14,931 0% 14,571 -2% 15,140 4% Dec 14,982 15,005 0% 14,574 -3% 15,156 4% Source: ALIC Monthly Table 8-A: Japanese Imports of Butter YTD Annual Series: 2007 - 2011, Year To Date: 03/2011 & 03/2012 Quantity (Metric Ton/Customs Clearance Basis) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner % Country Unit % % 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Change 03/2011 03/2012 Share (2011) Change (11/10) World MT 11,384 18,153 333 2,032 14,026 590% 100% 144 116 -19% United States MT 5 7,062 26 173 5,016 2799% 36% 0 3 n/a New Zealand MT 144 3,149 143 474 4,974 949% 35% 17 13 -24% Netherlands MT 6,152 2,412 0 860 2,037 137% 15% 58 0 n/a Australia MT 2,002 4,080 87 269 931 246% 7% 42 67 60% Germany MT 1,720 613 2 111 703 533% 5% 0 0 n/a France MT 139 241 70 136 358 163% 3% 27 30 11% Others MT 1,222 596 5 9 7 -22% 0% 0 3 n/a Source of Data: World Trade Atlas - Japan Customs Table 8-B: Average C&F Price of Imported Butter YTD Annual Series: 2007 - 2011, Year To Date: 03/2011 & 03/2012 Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Year To Date Partner Country Unit % 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 03/2011 03/2012 %Change Change (11/10) World per MT 3,724 4,192 6,199 4,766 5,554 17% 7,299 7,872 8% United States per MT 5,543 3,797 5,162 4,351 5,533 27% 0 3,909 n/a New Zealand per MT 2,336 4,191 2,443 3,941 5,029 28% 4,742 5,517 16% Netherlands per MT 3,786 4,813 0 4,384 6,121 40% 4,913 0 n/a Australia per MT 2,985 3,992 4,914 4,825 5,241 9% 7,076 6,295 -11% Germany per MT 4,116 4,940 16,605 4,276 6,393 50% 14,705 15,271 4% France per MT 11,649 10,175 15,556 10,660 9,025 -15% 14,352 12,461 -13% Source of Data: World Trade Atlas – Japan Customs Table 9-A: Japanese Imports of Cheese YTD Annual Series: 2007 - 2011, Year To Date: 03/2011 & 03/2012 Quantity (Metric Ton/Customs Clearance Basis) Year To Date Partner Unit % % Country % 2008 2009 2010 2011 Change Share 03/2011 03/2012 Change (11/10) (2011) World MT 225,081 186,503 184,242 199,080 215,262 8% 100% 52,008 58,370 12% Australia MT 97,029 87,487 84,059 85,120 90,062 6% 42% 21,009 22,945 9% New Zealand MT 65,259 50,630 49,751 52,098 56,329 8% 26% 14,800 18,654 26% United States MT 6,834 7,339 6,885 13,672 21,424 57% 10% 5,014 6,428 28% Germany MT 10,881 9,015 10,185 11,203 9,363 -16% 4% 2,610 1,948 -25% France MT 7,521 7,051 7,141 8,150 9,023 11% 4% 1,804 2,189 21% Denmark MT 9,192 7,783 8,156 7,769 8,295 7% 4% 1,856 1,734 -7% Italy MT 6,495 5,535 5,915 6,241 6,584 5% 3% 1,473 1,510 3% Netherlands MT 7,663 5,656 5,626 6,605 6,373 -4% 3% 1,418 1,526 8% Argentina MT 8,885 3,768 4,239 4,248 4,057 -4% 2% 1,095 669 -39% Others MT 5,322 2,239 2,285 3,974 3,752 -6% 2% 929 767 -17% Source of Data: World Trade Atlas - Japan Customs Table 9-B: Average C&F Price of Imported Cheese YTD Annual Series: 2007 - 2011, Year To Date: 03/2011 & 03/2012 Unit Value(United States Dollars) Calendar Year Date Partner Count Year To ry Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 %Change (11/10) 03/2011 03/2012 %Change World per MT 3,739 5,388 4,414 4,712 5,175 10% 4,874 5,028 3% Australia per MT 3,099 4,675 3,649 4,012 4,462 11% 4,187 4,629 11% New Zealand per MT 3,125 4,849 3,746 4,179 4,511 8% 4,369 4,472 2% United States per MT 6,338 7,297 7,129 5,549 5,262 -5% 4,940 4,840 -2% Germany per MT 3,681 4,939 3,703 3,826 4,594 20% 4,353 4,352 0% France per MT 7,671 9,257 9,371 9,617 10,103 5% 10,030 9,773 -3% Denmark per MT 5,223 7,032 6,347 6,583 7,301 11% 7,000 6,948 -1% Italy per MT 9,822 11,531 10,219 10,159 11,586 14% 11,132 10,436 -6% Netherlands per MT 4,265 5,789 4,416 4,424 5,196 17% 5,069 4,863 -4% Argentina per MT 2,962 4,747 3,137 3,663 4,258 16% 4,019 4,283 7% Source of Data: World Trade Atlas - Japan Customs
Posted: 28 June 2012

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