Grain and Feed Annual

An Expert's View about Fiber Crops in Jordan

Last updated: 7 Feb 2012

Total Wheat imports for MY 2010/2011 are forecast to reach 720,000 MT, and 50,000 MT are expected to be imported from the U.S.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 1/11/2012 GAIN Report Number: JO1104 Jordan Grain and Feed Annual Annual Report Approved By: Anita Katial Prepared By: Mohamed Khraishy Report Highlights: Jordan’s domestic production of cereals is negligible. Total Wheat imports for MY 2010/2011 are forecast to reach 720,000 MT, and 50,000 MT are expected to be imported from the U.S. For the same period, Jordan's barley imports are expected to reach 600,000 MT corn imports 500,000 MT (U.S. has 44 percent market share), and rice imports 140,000 MT (U.S. has 90 percent market share). Commodities: Wheat Production: Production of wheat is negligible in Jordan; barely sufficient for country's consumption for 17 days. Consumption: Wheat for human consumption is steady, total consumption does include some wheat that is diverted for use in animal feed. Wheat bread is fully subsidized. GoJ has committed itself to fix the price of subsidized wheat so that bakeries sell subsidized bread at US$ 0.22 per kg. To do so it provides the bakeries with wheat flour extracted at 80 percent at US$ 80 per ton, while the actual cost for this flour exceeds sometimes US$500 per MT To maintain this subsidized pricing whenever there is an increase in one other bread’s component price (like fuel) then GoJ lowers the flour price to meet that increase. Jordan’s total wheat consumption is around 720,000 MT per year. Trade: In MY 2011/12 wheat imports are expected to remain at same level as MY 2010/2012. Wheat imports have been influenced by global market volatility and accelerating prices. Drought and increasing international prices were the motivated the GoJ’s decree to maintain a 10 months strategic reserve in Jordan and on sea, equal to 450,000 MT in silos and 200,000 MT on sea and at the Aqaba port. Russia and black sea countries exported nearly 400,000 MT of wheat in MY 2011/12. Currently only 50,000 MT of U.S. wheat was imported from US in MY2011/12 under a food for progress agreement. Economic pressures coupled with high C&F prices for U.S. wheat keep Black Sea wheat more competitive. Stocks: GoJ's current policy is to maintain its strategic stocks at 10 months versus 3 months to avoid any shortages, as they did in MY 2007/08. Currently strategic stocks equal 450,000 MT in storage silos and 200,000 on sea and at port, if that strategic reserve level is maintained. Policy: Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Wheat Jordan 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: May 2009 2010 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 16 15 100 15 Beginning Stocks 388 388 348 180 337 648 Production 12 15 15 33 15 25 MY Imports 882 497 936 450 900 700 TY Imports 882 497 936 450 900 700 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 511 400 0 50 Total Supply 1,282 900 1,299 663 1,252 1,373 MY Exports 9 12 0 12 0 TY Exports 9 15 12 0 12 0 Feed and Residual 0 15 0 15 0 15 FSI Consumption 925 705 950 950 708 Total 925 720 950 15 950 723 Consumption Ending Stocks 348 180 337 648 290 650 Total Distribution 1,282 900 1,299 663 1,252 1,373 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Commodities: Barley Production: Production of barley is negligible; most of it goes for in animal feed at early growth stages. Consumption: Barley is mainly used for sheep feed and to a lesser extent for dairy cattle and poultry. Barley's consumption has dropped significantly after GoJ adopted the new animal tag system. Each sheep herder now receives subsidized barley according to actual number of tagged animals. This system cut a lot of corruption in using subsidy system. Trade: No barley imports from the U.S. were recorded. Barley suppliers are mainly black sea countries. The GOJ has been the sole importer of barley and sets the selling price. Stocks: End stock is 220,000 MT in silos, on sea and at port. Policy: Only sheep- and goat-owners will receive the subsidized barely. This program excludes cattle and poultry farmers from receiving subsidized barley as these two agricultural businesses are considered industries. The GOJ animal tagging project has created a reliable data base on all ruminant animals in Jordan to replace the repeatedly questionable animal census. As a result, of recent years global feed price increasing, subsidy reforms in Jordan and continuous drought, sheep meat price has recorded unprecedented high level, a stable rise of at least 200 percent was recorded in the market . Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Barley Jordan 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 2010 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 31 30 30 30 30 Beginning Stocks 212 212 193 180 203 220 Production 17 18 15 15 15 15 MY Imports 493 550 500 525 500 500 TY Imports 432 550 500 525 500 500 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 722 780 708 720 718 735 MY Exports 4 0 5 0 0 0 TY Exports 5 0 5 0 0 0 Feed and Residual 525 0 500 0 500 0 FSI Consumption 0 600 0 500 0 500 Total 525 600 500 500 500 500 Consumption Ending Stocks 193 180 203 220 218 235 Total Distribution 722 780 708 720 718 735 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Commodities: Corn Production: Corn production is negligible, less than 1,000 MT used as corn-on-the cob for human consumption. Consumption: Corn consumption is forecast to be 500,000 tons. Trade: Jordan imports of corn have increased due to natural growth of poultry and dairy industries, and active domestic exports of chickens and eggs to nearby markets mainly Iraq. A Free Trade Agreement signed between Jordan and the United States is no longer an advantage for U.S. corn, as all imported corn is exempted from tariffs. Corn is imported in bulk by the private sector, to meet the demand of poultry industry that is considered the biggest agri-business sector in Jordan, with investment size estimated as USD 1.6 billion. In MY2011/12, corn imports are expected to rise and substitute part of the barley market share. Additionally, the new ethanol industry bi-product, Dry Distilled Grain Soluble (DDGS), found its way into the market on a commercial basis from the U.S. in the last year. Policy: Corn consumption is steady at 500,000 MT to meet the demand of poultry and to a lesser extent dairy industries. There are no policies restricting U.S. corn imports to Jordan. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Corn Jordan 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 2010 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 3 3 2 49 22 50 Production 20 1 20 1 20 1 MY Imports 281 498 400 525 400 500 TY Imports 281 498 400 525 400 500 TY Imp. from U.S. 86 178 71 178 0 200 Total Supply 304 502 422 575 442 551 MY Exports 2 2 0 2 0 2 TY Exports 2 2 0 2 0 2 Feed and Residual 300 450 400 522 400 500 FSI Consumption 0 1 0 1 0 1 Total 300 451 400 523 400 501 Consumption Ending Stocks 2 49 22 50 42 48 Total Distribution 304 502 422 575 442 551 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Commodities: Rice, Milled Production: Being four driest country in the world, Jordan has no rice production. Consumption: Rice is one of the main staples of the Jordanian diet. Average consumption is about 27 kg per person per year. The preferred variety is medium grain (Camolino), which constitutes 90 percent of imports. Trade: U.S. market share for rice is expected to rise in MY 2011/12. American suppliers showed they’re reliable ones during the global food crisis by keeping their commitments to local importers. The crisis strengthened consumer confidence that enable U.S. suppliers to expand their share in Jordan’s rice market. Egypt’s ban on its domestic rice exports and Australia’s declining supply have also been a contributing factor for this rise in U.S. market share. Other major rice suppliers are Thailand, India and Turkey. Stocks: Importers avoid long storage of rice for two reasons, extra costs for storage, uncertainty and risk of price's fluctuation. In many cases, the distribution channel the marine vessel to whole sale customer is simpler. Marketing: The rice trade is conducted by the private sector. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Rice, Milled Jordan 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 2011 2012 USDA New ew New Official Post USDA Officia N l Post USDA Official Post Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 10 10 10 10 10 15 Milled Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rough Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Milling Rate (.9999) 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imports 136 133 160 140 160 140 TY Imports 136 133 160 140 160 140 TY Imp. from U.S. 78 83 0 80 0 90 Total Supply 146 143 170 150 170 155 MY Exports 0 1 0 1 0 1 TY Exports 0 1 0 1 0 1 Consumption and 136 132 160 134 160 139 Residual Ending Stocks 10 10 10 15 10 15 Total Distribution 146 143 170 150 170 155 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA
Posted: 30 January 2012, last updated 7 February 2012

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