Grain and Feed Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Crops and Support Services in Jordan

Posted on: 29 Nov 2012

Jordan’s domestic production of cereals is negligible. Total Wheat imports for MY 2012/2013 are forecast to reach 720,000 MT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 10/2/2012 GAIN Report Number: JO12002 Jordan Grain and Feed Annual Enter a Descriptive Report Name Approved By: Anita Katial Prepared By: Mohamed Khraishy Report Highlights: Jordan’s domestic production of cereals is negligible. Total Wheat imports for MY 2012/2013 are forecast to reach 720,000 MT, and 50,000 MT are expected to be imported from the U.S. For the same period, Jordan's barley imports are expected to reach 600,000 MT corn imports 500,000 MT , and rice imports 140,000 MT . Executive Summary: Jordan’s domestic production of cereals is negligible. Total Wheat imports for MY 2012/2013 is forecast to reach 720,000 MT, and 50,000 MT are expected to be imported from the U.S. For the same period, Jordan's barley imports are expected to reach 600,000 MT corn imports 500,000 MT with a lower U.S. market share due to prices rise, and rice imports 140,000 MT with a lower U.S. market share due to Egyptian competition. Commodities: Wheat Production: Production of wheat is negligible in Jordan; barely sufficient for country's consumption for 17 days. Consumption: Wheat for human consumption is steady, total consumption does include some wheat that is diverted for use in animal feed. Jordan’s total wheat consumption is around 720,000 MT per year. Trade: In MY 2012/13 wheat imports are expected to remain at same level as MY 2011/2012. Wheat imports have been influenced by global market volatility and accelerating prices. Drought and increasing international prices were the motive for the Government of Jordan's (GoJ) decree to maintain a 10 months strategic reserve in Jordan and on sea, equal to 450,000 MT in silos and 200,000 MT on sea and at the Aqaba port. Russia and black sea countries exported nearly 600,000 MT of wheat in MY 2012/13 . Currently only 50,000 MT of U.S. wheat was imported from US in MY2012/13 under a food for progress agreement. Economic pressures coupled with high C&F prices for U.S. wheat keep Black Sea wheat more competitive Stocks: GoJ's current policy is to maintain its strategic stocks at 10 months versus 3 months to avoid any shortages, as they did in MY 2007/08. Currently strategic stocks equal 450,000 MT in storage silos and 200,000 on sea and at port, if that strategic reserve level is maintained. Policy:Wheat bread is fully subsidized. GoJ has committed itself to fix the price of subsidized wheat so that bakeries sell subsidized bread at US$ 0.22 per kg. To do so it provides the bakeries with wheat flour extracted at 80 percent at US$ 80 per ton, while the actual cost for this flour exceeds sometimes US$400 per MT To maintain this subsidized pricing whenever there is an increase in one other bread’s component price (like fuel) then GoJ lowers the flour price to meet that increase. Marketing:GoJ through Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT) is dominating the import market, the subsidy system of the main product of wheat" the bread" makes it infeasible to private sector to trade the commodity in the local market. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Wheat Jordan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 21 15 20 15 20 15 Beginning Stocks 523 523 639 403 548 505 Production 33 15 25 17 25 15 MY Imports 937 600 761 800 850 800 TY Imports 937 600 761 800 850 800 TY Imp. from U.S. 511 400 50 0 0 100 Total Supply 1,493 1,138 1,425 1,220 1,423 1,320 MY Exports 14 0 12 0 10 0 TY Exports 14 0 12 0 10 0 Feed and Residual 15 15 15 15 15 15 FSI Consumption 825 720 850 700 850 755 Total Consumption 840 735 865 715 865 770 Ending Stocks 639 403 548 505 548 550 Total Distribution 1,493 1,138 1,425 1,220 1,423 1,320 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Author Defined: Commodities: Barley Production: Production of barley is negligible; most of it goes for in animal feed at early growth stages. Consumption: Barley is mainly used for sheep feed and to a lesser extent for dairy cattle and poultry. Barley's consumption has dropped significantly after GoJ adopted the new animal tag system. Each sheep herder now receives subsidized barley according to actual number of tagged animals. This system cut a lot of corruption in using subsidy system. Trade: No barley imports from the U.S. were recorded. Barley suppliers are mainly black sea countries. The GOJ has been the sole importer of barley and sets the selling price. Stocks: End stock is 250,000 MT in silos, on sea and at port. this amount is sufficient for 6 months consumption. Policy: Only sheep- and goat-owners will receive the subsidized barely. This program excludes cattle and poultry farmers from receiving subsidized barley as these two agricultural businesses are considered industries. The GOJ animal tagging project has created a reliable data base on all ruminant animals in Jordan to replace the repeatedly questionable animal census. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Barley Jordan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 20 30 20 30 30 30 Beginning Stocks 193 193 270 203 280 250 Production 11 15 10 15 15 15 MY Imports 566 500 700 532 500 500 TY Imports 550 500 700 532 500 500 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 770 708 980 750 795 765 MY Exports 0 5 0 0 0 0 TY Exports 0 5 0 0 0 0 Feed and Residual 500 500 700 500 FSI Consumption 0 0 500 0 525 Total Consumption 500 500 700 500 500 525 Ending Stocks 270 203 280 250 295 240 Total Distribution 770 708 980 750 795 765 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Commodities: Corn Production:corn production is negligible, less than 1,000 MT used as corn-on-the cob for human consumption. Consumption: Corn consumption is forecast to be 500,000 tons. Trade: Jordan imports of corn have increased due to natural growth of poultry and dairy industries, and active domestic exports of chickens and eggs to nearby markets mainly Iraq. A Free Trade Agreement signed between Jordan and the United States is no longer an advantage for U.S. corn, as all imported corn is exempted from tariffs. Corn is imported in bulk by the private sector, to meet the demand of poultry industry that is considered the biggest agri-business sector in Jordan, with investment size estimated as USD 2 billion. In MY2012/3, corn imports are expected to stay steady due to increase on prices, Additionally, the new ethanol industry bi-product, Dry Distilled Grain Soluble (DDGS), found its way into the market on a commercial basis from the U.S. in the last year. Stocks:A small amount is kept for a stock. Policy:No restrictions on corn trade in Jordan, specifications of corn is similar to U.S. standards. Marketing: Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Corn Jordan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 2 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 27 27 35 50 45 26 Production 29 2 20 1 20 1 MY Imports 373 525 400 450 400 500 TY Imports 373 525 400 450 400 500 TY Imp. from U.S. 71 75 0 65 0 75 Total Supply 429 554 455 501 465 527 MY Exports 9 0 0 0 0 0 TY Exports 9 0 0 0 0 Feed and Residual 375 400 425 FSI Consumption 10 504 10 475 10 477 Total Consumption 385 504 410 475 435 477 Ending Stocks 35 50 45 26 30 50 Total Distribution 429 554 455 501 465 527 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Commodities: Rice, Milled Production: Being four driest country in the world, Jordan has no rice production. Consumption: Rice is one of the main staples of the Jordanian diet. Average consumption is about 27 kg per person per year. The preferred variety is medium grain (Camolino), which constitutes 90 percent of imports. Trade: U.S. market share for rice is expected to decline in MY 2012/13. Egypt’s ban lift on its domestic rice exports is expected to raise competition and to minimize the U.S. market share. Other major rice suppliers are Thailand, India and Turkey. Stocks:no sound stock is kept in stores. Policy:No restrictions on rice trade in Jordan, specifications of rice is similar to U.S. standards. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Rice, Milled Jordan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2013 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 10 10 15 15 15 15 Milled Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rough Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Milling Rate (.9999) 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imports 140 135 140 140 145 140 TY Imports 140 135 140 140 145 140 TY Imp. from U.S. 73 83 0 75 0 50 Total Supply 150 145 155 155 160 155 MY Exports 0 1 0 1 0 1 TY Exports 0 1 0 1 0 1 Consumption and Residual 135 129 140 139 145 139 Ending Stocks 15 15 15 15 15 15 Total Distribution 150 145 155 155 160 155 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA
Posted: 29 November 2012

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