Mexican Hass avocado production is forecast to reach 1.25 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2011/12, a significant increase over MY 2010/11. Michoacán is the world leader in avocado production and accounts for 85 percent of total Mexican avocado production.
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
Required Report - public distribution
GAIN Report Number: MX1089
Production and Trade Forecast to Grow
Dulce Flores and Pete Olson
Mexican Hass avocado production is forecast to reach 1.25 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing
year (MY) 2011/12, a significant increase over MY 2010/11. Michoacán is the world leader in avocado
production and accounts for 85 percent of total Mexican avocado production. Fresh domestic
consumption in MY 2011/12 is forecast at 723,000 MT, and avocado exports are forecast to reach
330,000 MT in MY 2011/12. Exports to the U.S. are expected to continue increasing.
The avocado production forecast for MY 2011/12 (July/June) is 1.25 million metric tons (MMT), a 12
percent increase over MY 2010/11 production. Sources indicate that favorable weather conditions
existed throughout the year and the implementation of phytosanitary pest control programs helped boost
production. Also, MY 2011/12 is the high alternate bearing cycle. Production estimates for MY
2010/11 are 1.11 MMT, lower than first estimated as weather conditions in Michoacán (rainfall and
freezing temperatures) during May/June 2010, affected production. Production for MY 2009/10 was
raised slightly to 1.23 MMT.
Table 1. Mexico Fresh Avocado Production
PRODUCTION Estimate Estimate Forecast
MY 2009/10 July/June MY 2010/11 July/June MY 2011/12 July/June
Area planted (Ha) 129,354 134,322 138,000
Area Harvested (Ha) 121,490 123,403 125,000
Production (MT) 1,230,972 1,107,135 1,250,000
Avocado producers continue applying the best agricultural practices and food safety procedures to
ensure the highest quality. Producers in Michoacán comply with SAGARPA and APHIS food safety
and plant health requirements to have their U.S. export certifications in place. This includes all
procedures from production to packaging.
Producers, sponsored by the Avocado Association in Michoacán (APEAM ? Asociacion de Productores
y Empacadores Exportadores de Aguacate de Michoacan), invested nearly U.S. $2 million in
technological improvements that came on line in June 2010 to ensure that avocados are free of pests and
any chemical or biological residues. Michoacán is the world?s leader in avocado production and
accounts for 85 percent of total Mexican avocado production.
Total area planted for MY 2011/12 is forecast at 138,000 hectares an increase of nearly 10% over MY
2010/11, as growers in different states in Mexico are interested in increasing area due to good domestic
and international demand for Mexican Hass avocados. Area planted and harvested for MY 2010/11 was
updated based on official data. Michoacan has about 107,000 hectares planted with Hass avocado,
followed by the state of Jalisco with 8,468 planted hectares. Other avocado varieties planted in Mexico
at smaller scales are Fuerte, Criollo, Bacon, Pinkerton, Gwen and Reed.
Michoacan is currently the only state in Mexico authorized to export avocados to the United States.
USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) registration of authorized pest-free
municipalities in Michoacán continues expanding and is required for producers to export to the United
MX1089 Production and Trade Forecast to Grow Page 2
States. At present, APHIS?s export inspection program has certified 63,408.216 hectares as eligible to
export to the United States. Currently, 24 Michoacán municipalities are certified to export to the United
States. Within Michoacan, the following municipalities can export to the United States: Acuitzio,
Tancitaro, Uruapan, Tingüindin, Salvador Escalante, Nuevo Parangaricutiro, Periban de Ramos, Ario,
Los Reyes, Apatzingan, Taretan, Tacambaro, Tingambato, Madero, Cotija de la Paz, Erongaricuaro,
Tocumbo, Tuxpan, Irimbo, Hidalgo, Turicato, Ziracuaretiro, Paracuaro and Tangamandapio.
Despite the relatively high cost of production, producing Mexican Hass avocados has been a profitable
activity due to high domestic retail prices and increased exports. The latest information indicates that
the cost of irrigated production per hectare has not increased dramatically. Many producers have
implemented SAGARPA?s non-mandatory food safety program recommendations and consider this
practice and any added costs as a long-term investment. According to sources, costs of production in
Michoacan vary from about $45,000 pesos/hectare (USD $3,265/hectare) using basic technology to
about $60,000 pesos/hectare (USD $4,354/hectare) with advanced technology that includes machinery
and irrigation systems. Yields also vary from 8 or 9 metric tons per hectare (MT/ha) to 14 or 15 MT/
ha, depending on the level of technology used. Overall yields in Mexico for MY 2011/12 are forecast at
9.1 MT/ha. Yields for MY 2010/11 are estimated at 8.97 MT/ha. According to sources, about 98
percent of the area in the state of Michoacan has a tree density of 100 trees per hectare. However, there
are few growers that are trying higher densities of about 115 trees per hectare. The state of Jalisco, with
new developments, is planting at higher tree densities and yields there are expected to be between 15
and 20 MT/ha.
Fresh domestic consumption for MY 2011/12 is forecast at 723,000 MT, an increase of about 16 percent
over MY 2010/11 consumption due to favorable expected prices. The vast majority of Mexico?s
avocado production is consumed domestically as avocados are a staple food in most Mexican
households. Consumption for MY 2010/11 was revised downward from previous estimates to 622,343
MT due to unexpected lower production and higher domestic prices. Consumption for MY 2009/10
was revised downward from previous estimates to 720,652 MT.
Data on avocado consumption by the processing industry is either proprietary or non-existent. Industry
representatives indicate that domestic processing use is between 170,000 to 200,000 MT.
Fresh avocado exports continue to drive producer profitability despite the fact that new domestic market
niches (related to the extraction and export of avocado oil for the cosmetic industry) are developing.
The cosmetic industry has not taken advantage of this demand segment as there is a consumer
perception that avocado byproducts are expensive.
Sources indicate that increased output, new orchards coming into production, and an increased number
of certified municipalities will allow producers and exporters to adequately meet both domestic and
Avocado exports are forecast at about 330,000 MT for MY 2011/12, a 3.6 percent increase compared to
MY 2010/11. Exports have been increasing due to attractive international prices and year-round market
access to all 50 U.S. states. Exports for MY 2010/11 were revised downward to 318,462 MT as it was a
MX1089 Production and Trade Forecast to Grow Page 3
low production year. Exports to the U.S., in contrast, increased 5 percent in volume and 18.82 percent
in value. Exports for MY 2009/10 were revised downward to 323,704 MT.
The Unites States is the top export market for Mexico representing 75 percent of total exports. For MY
2010/11, Mexico exported 240,136 MT of avocado to the United States. Japan and Canada are strategic
market niches where Japan has 10 percent of the market and Canada 7 percent. Currently, 34 packers in
Michoacan are eligible to export Mexican avocados to the United States (See Production section).
According to sources, avocado imports, mainly from California, remain low. Mexican imports for
2010/11 are estimated at 3,670 MT. Imports for MY 2011/12 are expected to be lower or about 3,000
MT, due to a strong domestic crop at affordable prices. Imports for MY 2009/10 were revised upward
to 3,384 MT.
SAGARPA just published an informative brochure on Mexican avocado with general information on
production, trade, marketing and regulations. The web page is:
Mexico continues to implement phytosanitary requirements and good manufacturing practices for the
transportation of fresh avocados within the country (see report MX2080). Unofficial reports indicate
that the vast majority of Michoacán producers and packers have implemented SAGARPA?s
recommended good manufacturing practices in order to guarantee the distribution of high quality
produce in international and domestic markets.
Mexican fresh Hass avocados entering the United States are not subject to any duty. Mexican avocados
are required to pay a fee of 2.5 U.S. cents per pound for the Hass Avocado Board and AMS for
promotional purposes (see Marketing section). The producers also pay their Association (APEAM ) 5
U.S. cents per pound of exported avocado for USDA inspection fees. Fresh avocado imports (HS
08.04.40.01) from the United States are not subject to any duty but are subject to phytosanitary and
sanitary inspections by SAGARPA.
Under the U.S. Hass Avocado Promotion, Research and Information Order an assessment of 2.5 cents
per pound is levied on fresh Hass avocados imported into the United States. The fee is used for finance,
promotion, research, consumer information, and industry programs. Mexico does not assess a charge
against U.S. avocados. The avocado association, APEAM, has invested about 1 million dollars each to
promote avocados in both the Japanese and Canadian markets, as producers and packers are interested
in exporting larger volumes to those countries with the goal of diversifying export markets.
MY 2011/12 export prices are expected to be good. Wholesale domestic prices during the middle of
CY 2011 increased more than 60% compared to CY 2010 prices, due to lower supplies. Overall,
however, Mexican domestic prices for this food staple are expected to remain attractive for consumers
as the domestic crop is expected to be higher.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:
MX1089 Production and Trade Forecast to Grow Page 4
Table 1. Mexico: Avocado Wholesale Prices
Pesos per Kilogram
2009 2010 2011 % Change
January 15.73 15.95 19.48 22.13
February 15.68 16.42 21.57 31.36
March 17.29 18.53 28.60 54.34
April 21.84 22.85 30.56 33.74
May 25.43 22.26 36.34 63.25
June 28.83 24.53 41.07 67.42
July 34.73 27.16 50.84 87.18
August 28.25 31.12 33.82 8.67
September 20.55 33.04 25.07 (24.12)
October 14.33 23.36 18.40 (21.23)
November 13.68 17.08 18.37? 7.55
December 14.53 17.19 n/a n/a
Source: Sevicio Nacional de Informacion de Mercados
2009 Exchange Rate Avg.: U.S.$ 1.00 = $ 12.33 pesos
2010 Exchange Rate Avg.: U.S.$ 1.00 = $ 12.62 pesos
November 15, 2011 exchange rate U.S. $ 1.00 = $ 13.51 pesos
? As of third week of November
Table 2. Mexico: Avocado Trade Tables
Avocado 0804.40 Unit: Metric Tons
Exports for MY 2009/10 (July-June) Imports for MY 2009/10 (July-June) from:
U.S. 228,372 U.S. 3,384
TOTAL OF OTHER 36,673
TOTAL 323,704 TOTAL 3,384
Avocado 0804.40 Unit: Metric Tons
Exports for MY 2010/11 (July-June) Imports for MY 2010/11 (July-June) from:
U.S. 240,136 U.S. 3,670
TOTAL OF OTHER 22,797
TOTAL 318,462 TOTAL 3,670
SOURCE: Global Trade Information Services, Inc. Global Trade Atlas, Mexico Edition, August 2011
FAS/Mexico Web Site: We are available at www.mexico-usda.com or visit the FAS headquarters'
home page at www.fas.usda.gov for a complete selection of FAS worldwide agricultural reporting.
MX1089 Production and Trade Forecast to Grow Page 5
Useful Mexican Web Sites: Mexico's equivalent to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (SAGARPA)
can be found at www.sagarpa.gob.mx and Mexico?s equivalent to the U.S. Department of Commerce
(SE) can be found at www.economia.gob.mx. These web sites are mentioned for the readers'
convenience but USDA does NOT in any way endorse, guarantee the accuracy of, or necessarily concur
with, the information contained on the mentioned sites.
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