Oilseed Production Expected to Increase in 2012/13

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Mexico

Posted on: 22 Apr 2012

The Post/New estimated total oilseed production, planted areas, and harvested areas for MY’s 2010/11 and 2011/12 have been revised upward.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 4/12/2012 GAIN Report Number: MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Oilseed Production Expected to Increase in 2012/13 Approved By: Erik W. Hansen Prepared By: Benjamin Juarez & Erik W. Hansen Report Highlights: The Post/New MY2012/13 total Mexican oilseed production forecast is increased slightly to 298,000 metric tons (MT) based on assumed normal weather conditions and an increase in harvested area stimulated by a governmental domestic support program. This program, which provides support for up to 15 percent of the average cost of technical assistance with a limit of 1,100 pesos/ha (roughly 85 USD/ha), established various oilseed production targets and assists oilseeds growers with support for planting, purchasing improved seeds and fertilizers, and technical assistance. Domestic production represents only 5 percent of total domestic consumption, as imports have displaced much domestic oilseed production with almost all oilseed imports originating from the United States. Executive Summary: MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 1 OILSEED PRODUCTION The Post/New MY2012/13 total Mexican oilseed production forecast is increased slightly to 298,000 metric tons (MT) based on assumed normal weather conditions and an increase in harvested area stimulated by a governmental domestic support program. This program established various oilseed production targets and assists oilseeds growers with support for planting, purchasing improved seeds and fertilizers, and technical assistance. The program offers technical assistance for increasing seed planting density, promotes the use of fertilizers and improvements in plant nutrition, and encourages efficient technological application of phytosanitary controls. The program provides support for up to 15 percent of the average cost of technical assistance, with a limit of 1,100 pesos/ha (roughly 85 USD/ha) for the production of soybeans, rapeseed (canola), and sunflower seed. Domestic production represents only 5 percent of total domestic consumption, as imports have displaced much domestic oilseed production with almost all oilseed imports originating from the United States. Due to proximity and lower freight costs, U.S. suppliers should remain price competitive and increase its market share. For MY 2011/12, the U.S. share is expected to remain at about the same level, 73 percent, as it was in the previous year. The Post/New estimated total oilseed production, planted areas, and harvested areas for MY?s 2010/11 and 2011/12 have been revised upward due to recently released statistics from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development and Fishery (SAGARPA). According to SAGARPA, genetically-enhanced (GE) oilseed varieties have not been officially approved for commercial planting in Mexico. Soybean Production The Post/New MY 2012/13 (October to September) soybean production forecast is raised to 205,000 MT due to a slight expansion in harvested area and assuming normal weather conditions. In addition, it was recently announced that the governmental Pro Oilseeds Program will continue (see 2010 GAIN Report MX0022 Mexican Oilseeds Production Expected to Increase) for the foreseeable future. Market analysts have stated that despite strong domestic demand for soybeans and the continuation of the Pro Oilseeds program, it is unlikely that greater expansion of soybean planting will take place. The two main factors that inhibit soybean production are the low yields and quality issues. Approximately 90 percent of Mexico?s soybean areas are rain-fed and, consequently, weather continues to be the predominant factor. Tamaulipas produces the largest portion of Mexico's soybean crop. One of the main soybean crushing companies in Mexico has already acquired approximately 90 percent of Tamaulipas´ expected soybean harvest (82,000 MT) for MY 2011/12. Soybean crushing companies have complained about the high foreign material content of the crop and some other quality issues with Tamaulipas?s soybeans.. Market analysts have stated that soybean production in Tamaulipas exists solely to the support programs run by the Mexican government. For MY 2010/11, Post/New total soybean production, planted areas, and harvested areas forecast have been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates based on final data SAGARPA. Similarly, the planted and harvested areas estimates for MY 2011/12 have been adjusted upward based on SAGARPA?s updated information. Despite the fact that nearly 15,000 hectares of land are currently using genetically?enhanced soybean seeds under the Mexican government pilot program, SAGARPA has not officially approved the GE seed for commercial planting. Below is a table with a breakdown of area planted with GE soybeans by state: MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 2 Table 1: Genetically-Enhanced Soybean Planted Area ( MON-04032-6) Crop Cycle: 2011 Spring/Summer Liberalization Stage: Pilot Region Hectares Yucatan Peninsula 10,766.61 Chiapas 2,858.5 Huasteca 1,255.5 Total 14,880.61 Source: SAGARPA/SENASICA Peanut Production The Post/New MY 2012/13 (September to August) peanut production is forecast at 85,000 MT with harvested area, assuming normal weather conditions, estimated at 60,000 ha. According to industry sources, peanut producers are experiencing a favorable MY 2011/12 and should maintain similar harvested area and production to levels consistent with the long-term average for the past few years. This assumes that enough moisture is available for next summer?s planting and that market prices remain attractive. The Post/New peanut production estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates to 81,000 MT and 88,000 MT, respectively, based on SAGARPA?s updated information and reflecting greater planted and harvested areas than previously estimated. It should be noted that SAGARPA publishes official peanut production data just once a year. The spring/summer peanut crop cycle is planted from April to March and the fall/winter crop cycle is planted from September to October. Approximately 86 percent of total peanut production takes place in seven Mexican states: Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Chiapas, Puebla, Oaxaca, Guerrero, and San Luis Potosi. Weather, given that 98 percent of Mexico?s peanut area is grown on dry land (versus irrigated), continues being the predominant crop factor. As is true in the past, the 2012 spring/summer crop cycle is expected to account for approximately 96 percent of total peanut production with the remainder coming from the 2012/13 Fall/Winter crop cycle. Sunflower Seed Production The Post/New MY 2012/13 sunflower seed production forecast remains unchanged. The production figures as well as the planted and harvested areas for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates reflecting the latest Mexican government data published by SAGARPA. On February 22, 2011, one of the world?s largest food and beverage companies announced a partnership with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to spur social and economic growth in 26 countries across Latin America and the Caribbean. This partnership includes a project to expand commercial sunflower production in Mexico (See 2011 GAIN report MX1023 2011 Oilseeds Annual). The project aim is to create a sustainable market for sunflowers by providing loans and a source of income for approximately 850 Mexican farmers and their families. The multinational firm will provide a source of heart-healthy high-oleic sunflower oil (HOSO) for cooking potato chips, biscuits, nuts, and other snacks manufactured by the multinational firm in Mexico under several well-known MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 3 brands. The five-year partnership between the multinational and the IDB marks the first time that a private company has participated in the IDB's innovative regional trust funds for development activities. As part of the sunflower production program, the multinational has committed to purchase 100 percent of the crop, for an estimated 52 million USD over seven years. Additionally, the multinational will invest 2.6 million USD to support management of the Mexican sunflower crop and provide training to small farmers. A financial partner, specializing in supply chain finance, will make available 40.4 million USD for micro loans. The IDB, through its Opportunities for the Majority Initiative, will provide the financing partner with credit guarantees for up to 5 million USD. According to private and government contacts, progress on this project has yet to get started. Rapeseed Production Due to revised SAGARPA data and preliminary information provided by private sector contacts, Post/New estimates for rapeseed production and harvested area for MY 2012/13 were adjusted upward from USDA/Official data. Mexican government officials have informed that the rapeseed production declined in MY 2011/12 compared with revised estimate of a year earlier, due to the very low quality of the crop obtained a year earlier. As a result of this poor quality, growers sold their crop as animal feed instead crushing it. In addition private analysts have stated that there are other problems that limiting the production of canola in Mexico, such as: Lack of domestic seeds with high yields; Lack of technical assistance and training in crop management (such as optimum planting date), which causes variability in yields; and Lack of proper equipment such as suitable planters and harvesters. The production and planted and harvested figures for MY 2010/11 has been revised upward reflecting the final figures published by SAGARPA. OILSEED PRICES Mexican soybean prices have trended parallel and higher with United States prices from late 2009 to November 2010. However, as seen in Figure 3, from November 2010 through February 2011, Mexican soybean prices dropped below United States prices. Information from SAGARPA suggested that prices may have moved lower as the industry was witnessing higher soy oil levels in the United States, and global economic concern based on the economic crisis in EU. After February 2011, Mexican soybean prices have continued with the trend of being parallel with the prices seen in the United States. Figure 1: Mexico: Soybean Market Prices in Mexico and U.S., Pesos/MT, 2009 - present. MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 4 Weekly Average price market in consuming area. Note: Data for U.S. Soybeans are the contract of November 2012 (CBT/S, Nov12). Source: GCMA and Reuters. Exchange rate (March 29, 2012) US $ 1.00 = 12.80 Pesos Table 2: Mexico?s Average Annual Market Price Soybean Meal Soybean (Pesos/Ton) Annual Standard (Pesos/Ton) Annual Standard Variation Deviation Variation Deviation 2008 5685.8 - 556.7 - - - 2009 5919.0 4.1 429.2 - - - 2010* 5470.2 -7.6 479.2 5418.6 - 168.2 2011 6507.6 19.0 616.9 5378.7 -0.74 245.0 2012 6,687.0 2.8 106.1 5,307.4 -1.3 68.8 Source: SFA GCMA Information. Note: for 2012 was considered the cumulative to date. They consider the period from July 26 to December 31, 2010. Exchange rate (March 29, 2012) US $ 1.00 = 12.80 Pesos OILSEED POLICY On June 25, 2009, SAGARPA announced the Pro Oilseeds subsidy program (See 2010 GAIN Report MX0022 Mexican Oilseeds Production Expected to Increase). The program established various oilseed production targets and assists oilseeds growers with support for planting, purchasing improved seeds and fertilizers, and technical assistance. The main purpose of this program is to increase the production of oilseeds and to encourage planting of alternative crops to improve producer income. The program offers technical assistance for increasing seed planting density, promotes the use of fertilizers and improvements in plant nutrition, and encourages efficient technological application of phyto-sanitary controls. The program provides support for up to 15 percent of the average cost of technical assistance, with a limit of 1,100 pesos/ha (roughly 85.00/ha) for the production of soybeans, rapeseed (canola), and sunflower seed. Under Mexican domestic agricultural support program PROCAMPO, a flat rate payment for oilseeds MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 5 crops was provided to farmers for the 2010 spring/summer crop cycle. On April 8, 2009, SAGARPA announced in the Mexican Federal Register (Diario Oficial) modifications to the operational rules of PROCAMPO for the 2009 through 2012 spring/summer planting seasons. The support payments are between 963 - 1,300 pesos per ha depending on the number of hectares each producer has registered in the program. Additionally, in 2009, SAGARPA reduced the maximum payment limit under the program to 100,000 pesos (roughly 7,692 USD) regardless of total area under production (See 2009 GAIN Report MX9020 Mexico Announces Changes to Support Program). The Mexican government continues to encourage forward contract purchases between farmers and buyers through the Forward Contract Program, Agricultura por Contrato, (see 2008 GAIN Report MX8075 Mexico Announces Support Program for Sinaloa White Corn). The program was designed for producers, traders and consumers soybean, safflower, cotton, as well other commodities such as corn, wheat, sorghum, coffee, orange juice and livestock products (beef and pork), and recently added cocoa and coverage for agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, natural gas (and derivatives), and diesel. This Forward Contract Program is a subsidy system based on market prices and tools that facilitates price stability, merchandising, and marketing for Mexican producers. The Forward Contract Program includes a complex mechanism to purchase put and call options for oilseed and grain growers and the processing industry. Official sources report that supports under this program are defined as non-product specific as they are available to producers. Moreover, the mechanism is based on world prices, thereby diminishing the risk of the system being defined as price distorting. OILSEED CONSUMPTION Total domestic consumption of oilseed products for MY 2012/13 is forecast to increase slightly to 5.688 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 1.3 percent compared to the previous year?s revised estimate. This increase is expected to be driven by population growth (1.1 percent) and modest growth in the Mexican livestock and poultry sectors. Private analysts have stated that the slight increase in oilseeds consumption could be influenced by the relatively slowdown in the Mexican economy. According the Governor of the Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the Mexican economy will slow down in 2012 due to adverse global circumstances that could last up to five years. He pointed out that Mexico?s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2012, lower than the 3.9 percent growth seen in 2011. As a result, Mexican consumers likely will remain without major change their consumption of products containing vegetable oils, such as soybean and canola oils, as unchanged incomes could maintain relatively stable or with a slight increase the demand for convenience foods and other vegetable oil products. MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 total oilseeds demand was revised upward from USDA/Official as after consulting with market analysts and updated Mexican government data. Soybean Consumption Soybean consumption is expected to increase 100,000 MT in MY 2012/13 to 3.85 MMT because of the moderate increase in feed demand, stronger processor demand, and population growth (1.1 percent). Regarding animal feed demand, Post expects to see growing demand from poultry producers as beef and pork prices continue to rise. Plus, vertical integration is taking place in Mexico?s poultry sector leading to more efficiency making poultry meat one of the cheapest animal protein sources for Mexican consumers. MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 6 Peanut Consumption Peanut food use domestic consumption is forecast to increase slightly to 211,000 MT for MY 2012/13 reflecting population growth while crush demand is forecast to remain unchanged at 4,000 MT. 98.5 percent of total peanut consumption continues to be in the snack food market. Peanuts are consumed as snacks or ground into powders. Industry sources stated that none of Mexico?s peanut production is used for oil or meal. In calendar year (CY) 2010, the United States was the main supplier of shelled peanuts to Mexico with 57 percent total market share. In CY 2011, however, low supply and high prices affected U.S. peanut exports to Mexico. There are numerous small/informal peanut processors that acquire peanuts from distributors/importers and process peanut snacks as artisans. During the last several years, important peanut processors located in different regions of the country have identified U.S. peanuts as high quality product due to different factors such as low foreign material content, long shelf life, strong flavor, low aflatoxin content, and high oleic level. It should be noted that this knowledge regarding the U.S. peanuts characteristics has been achieved through campaigns developed by the American Peanut Council (APC) representives in Mexico. These campaigns have focused on educating the Mexican trade on the advantages of U.S. peanut products for processing applications versus peanuts from other countries. For example, in 2011, 43 different Mexican companies were contacted by the APC technical staff to provide information about the U.S. peanut products, which includes snack processors, distributors of nuts and seeds, granola processors, confectionary good processors and supermarkets. Sunflower Consumption The Post/New MY 2012/13 forecast for sunflower seed total consumption is 20,000 MT. Only a small amount of total sunflower seed production has been used for oil and meal over the past few years and this trend is expected to continue in MY 2012/13. Post/New MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 estimates for sunflower seed consumption have been revised upward from USDA/Official data based on official information from SAGARPA and stronger demand from the confection, snack, and bird-feed sectors. Rapeseed Consumption MY 2012/13 rapeseed consumption is forecast to decrease 2.6 percent to 1.658 MMT reflecting the bullish international market outlook for this year. Market analysts have commented that Mexico remains a price sensitive market and industry users will switch between different oilseeds, oils, meals or other feed components as prices fluctuate. Rapeseed consumption estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised upward based on the most recent official information from SAGARPA and industry contacts. OILSEED TRADE Mexico's import decisions for oilseeds are based on price and the availability of credit, rather than on quality or strong consumer preference. Moreover, several big and medium oilseed processors prefer to import oilseed meals and oils (crude or refined) directly instead of crushing it especially when prices are lower the cost of crushing. The Post/New total oilseed import estimate for MY 2012/13 is estimated to increase approximately 1.1 percent in comparison with the Post/New revised estimate for MY 2011/12. This is due mainly to population growth (1.1 percent). Imports continue to be primarily soybeans that are crushed domestically. MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 7 The Post/New total oilseed import estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised upward from the USDA/Official estimate to 5.12 and 5.34 MMT, respectively, in order to reflect official data from SAGARPA and the General Customs Directorate of the Finance Secretariat (SHCP). The United States and Canada will continue to be the main suppliers of oilseeds to the Mexican market. Due to proximity and lower freight costs, U.S. suppliers should remain price competitive and increase their market share. For MY 2011/12, the U.S. share is expected to remain at about the same level, 73 percent, as it was in MY 2010/11. Soybean Trade The Post/New total soybean import forecast for MY 2012/13 is expected to increase approximately 2.8 percent compared to MY 2011/12, reaching 3.6 MMT, due to growing demand from the domestic poultry and pork sectors as well as population growth. The Post/New MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 soybean import estimate decreased slightly based on official trade data from SAGARPA and SHCP. Peanut Trade The Post/New total peanut import forecast for MY 2012/13 is expected to increase to 135,000 MT fueled by the continued demand from the snack and confection sectors. Similarly, the export forecast for MY 2012/13 is expected to remain unchanged compared to the previous year at 2,000 MT. Peanut import and export estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised downward from USDA/Official data based on information from SAGARPA and SHCP for the former and industry data for the latter. Rapeseed Trade The Post/New MY 2012/13 rapeseed import forecast is estimated to decrease 2.9 percent to 1.65 MMT over the revised Post/New MY 2011/12 estimate. This decline assumes a relatively bullish international market due to the possibility that China would allow imports of Canadian canola. Canada remains the primary canola supplier to the Mexican market. Canola is included in the rapeseed production, supply, and distribution matrix. The MY 2011/12 Post/New rapeseed import estimate has been revised upward from previous estimates based on updated industry information. The Post/New MY 2010/11 import estimate has been increased to 1.52 MMT based on official trade data from SAGARPA and SHCP. Sunflower Trade Imports of sunflower seed are forecast to increase to 16,000 MT for MY 2012/13 as the fried snack industry will continue demanding the sunflower oil due to its high content of heart-healthy oleic oil for cooking potato chips, biscuits, nuts, and other snacks. Table 3. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Total Oilseeds 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 TOTAL Market Year Begin: Sep 2010 Market Year Begin: Sep 2011 Market Year Begin: Sep 2012 O USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post ILSEEDS Area Planted 165 231 185 239 241 Area Harvested 158 215 179 224 225 Beginning Stocks 113 113 120 91 110 Production 239 264 271 296 298 MY Imports 5,111 5,129 5,163 5,342 5,401 MY Imp. from U.S. 3,481 3,451 3,415 3,440 3,546 MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 8 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 5,463 5,506 5,554 5,729 5,809 MY Exports 9 1 9 2 2 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 5,091 5,163 5,166 5,368 5,429 Food Use Dom. Cons. 205 212 205 209 219 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 38 39 39 40 40 Total Dom. Cons. 5,334 5,414 5,410 5,617 5,688 Ending Stocks 120 91 135 110 119 Total Distribution 5,463 5,506 5,554 5,729 5,809 1000 HA, 1000 MT Table 4. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Soybeans Oilseed, Soybean Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Sep 2010 Market Year Begin: Sep 2011 Market Year Begin: Sep 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 115 166 135 167 170 Area Harvested 112 154 133 156 160 Beginning Stocks 45 45 51 31 46 Production 168 171 200 200 205 MY Imports 3,498 3,475 3,500 3,500 3,600 MY Imp. from U.S. 3,337 3,314 3,300 3,300 3,400 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,711 3,691 3,751 3,731 3,851 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 3,625 3,625 3,650 3,650 3,760 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 35 35 35 35 35 Total Dom. Cons. 3,660 3,660 3,685 3,685 3,795 Ending Stocks 51 31 66 46 56 Total Distribution 3,711 3,691 3,751 3,731 3,851 1000 HA, 1000 MT Table 5. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Rapeseed Oilseed, Rapeseed Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 8 0 4 4 Area Harvested 0 6 0 3 3 Beginning Stocks 47 47 47 48 48 Production 0 8 0 4 4 MY Imports 1,450 1,521 1,500 1,700 1,650 MY Imp. from U.S. 60 80 40 80 70 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 9 Total Supply 1,497 1,576 1,547 1,752 1,702 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 1,450 1,521 1,500 1,700 1,650 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 7 0 4 8 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 1,450 1,528 1,500 1,704 1,658 Ending Stocks 47 48 47 48 44 Total Distribution 1,497 1,576 1,547 1,752 1,702 1000 HA, 1000 MT Table 6. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Sunflower Seed Oilseed, Sunflower-seed Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 2 0 2 2 Area Harvested 1 2 1 2 2 Beginning Stocks 1 1 2 3 3 Production 1 4 1 4 4 MY Imports 15 15 15 15 16 MY Imp. from U.S. 8 8 10 10 11 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 17 20 18 22 23 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 12 13 12 14 15 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 3 4 4 5 5 Total Dom. Cons. 15 17 16 19 20 Ending Stocks 2 3 2 3 3 Total Distribution 17 20 18 22 23 1000 HA, 1000 MT Table 7. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Peanuts Oilseed, Peanut Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Sep 2013 Market Year Begin: May 2011 Market Year Begin: Sep 2015 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 50 55 50 66 65 Area Harvested 45 53 45 63 60 Beginning Stocks 20 20 20 9 13 Production 70 81 70 88 85 MY Imports 148 118 148 127 135 MY Imp. from U.S. 76 49 65 50 65 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 238 219 238 224 233 MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 10 MY Exports 9 1 9 2 2 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 4 4 4 4 4 Food Use Dom. Cons. 205 205 205 205 211 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 209 209 209 209 215 Ending Stocks 20 9 20 13 16 Total Distribution 238 219 238 224 233 1000 HA, 1000 MT MEAL PRODUCTION The Post/New total Mexican oil meal production forecast for MY 2012/13 is 3.93 MMT, 1.5 percent higher than the revised estimate for MY 2011/12, driven by slightly greater demand for oil meal by the livestock and poultry sectors. The pork sector outlook, for example, is moderately optimistic for 2012 in comparison with 2011 (See 2012 GAIN report MX2016 ?Mexico Remains an Important Market for U.S. Beef and Pork?) The Post/New total meal production estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 were revised upward from USDA/Official estimates, reflecting updated industry information. As in past years, high-protein soybean meal accounts for approximately 76 percent of total Mexican oil meal production. Production of oil meal from imported rapeseed and canola accounts for 24 percent of total meal use. Soybean Meal Production The Post/New soybean meal production forecast for MY 2012/2013 is 2.96 MMT, an increase of 2.9 percent compared to the previous year due to expected growth in the poultry and hog sectors. The upward trend in meal production has continued over the past few years as leading crushers have expanded capacities at their facilities. Capacity remains highly concentrated in the hands of four leading companies (Aceites Grasas y Derivados, Ragasa, Proteinas y Oleicos, and Cargill) that continue to grow while medium and small crushers scale back their operations. These major crushers continue to invest in their production capacity in an effort to service the Mexican livestock sector. Cargill, for example will invest approximately 47 million USD to expand and modernize its facilities in the state of Hidalgo. This investment will increase its production capacity from 240,000 MT annually to 360,000 MT of meals and vegetable oils (mainly soybean oil). Construction is expected to be completed in June 2013. Sunflower Seed Meal Production Sunflower Seed meal production is forecast to remain unchanged at 7,000 MT in MY 2012/13. The Post/New sunflower seed meal production estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates due to new industry information. Rapeseed Meal Production Rapeseed meal production for MY 2012/13 is forecast to decrease 2.9 percent anticipating a lower crushing level of imported canola, due to the bullish international market expected in 2012. In line with recent information obtained from government and industry sources, the Post/New MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 rapeseed meal production estimates have been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates. The pork industry continues to be the major consumer of rapeseed meal. MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 11 MEAL CONSUMPTION Consumption of all oil meal products is expected to increase in MY 2012/13 by 1.9 percent, with imported products representing approximately 31 percent of Mexico?s total oil meal consumption. Soybean meal is likely to continue being the ingredient of choice for the poultry and swine industries. Rapeseed meal consumption should comprise approximately 19 percent of total meal consumption. The Post/New total oil meal consumption figures were revised slightly upward for both MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/13 from USDA/Official estimates reflecting the most recent industry and official information. Soybean Meal Consumption The Post/New soybean meal consumption estimate is expected to increase in MY 2012/13 in comparison with the Post/New MY 2011/12 estimate as demand from the poultry sector continues growing. The poultry sector is moving towards industrial and commercial integration to satisfy domestic market and consumer-led demand for affordable and better products. For example, some poultry manufacturers are supplying marinated and ready-to-cook products. In addition, a number of poultry companies have started their own retail points of sale (see 2012 GAIN report MX2012 ?Poultry Semi- annual: Sector Integration and Strong Demand Continue?) Sunflower Seed Meal Consumption MY 2012/13 sunflower seed meal consumption is expected to remain unchanged at 7,000 MT. The Post/New consumption estimates of sunflower seed meal has been revised upward for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 to 6,000 MT and 7,000 MT, respectively, due to affordable prices. Sunflower seed meal has a very low acceptance rate by the crushing industry and animal feed manufacturers due to its high fiber content. Rapeseed Meal Consumption The Post/New rapeseed and canola consumption forecast for MY2012/13 is raised by roughly 1.0 percent assuming that Canadian imports continue to be affordable to feed the growth in the swine industry. Rapeseed meal is used mainly by the swine sector. Industry sources state that even though rapeseed meal has lower protein levels and is of relatively lower quality in terms of essential amino acids and protein digestibility compared to other oilseed meals, it is cheaper than soybean meal and, as such, is demanded by the feed sector. The Post/New rapeseed meal consumption estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised upward from USDA/Official figures, as prices relative to other oil meals are more competitive. MEAL TRADE The Post/New meal import forecast is increase slightly to approximately 1.71 MMT in MY 2012/13 driven by increasing demand of the hog and poultry sectors, which expect to have a relatively optimistic performance in 2012. Approximately 30 percent of total meal supply is expected to be imported as has been the case in the last few years. The United States has supplied about 95 percent of total meal imports over the past two years. The Post/New total meal import estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 were revised downward and upward, respectively, from USDA/Official estimates reflecting updated official trade data from SAGARPA, industry contacts, and SHCP. MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 12 Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) Mexico is one of the largest export markets for U.S.-origin DDGS and demand for the ethanol co- product continues to increase. From MY 2004/05 to MY 2010/11, U.S. DDGS exports to Mexico increased from 0.104 MMT to 1.738MMT. Industry experts anticipate greater volumes to be traded in 2012 and beyond thanks to greater awareness by the Mexican end users. Many companies in the animal feed industry have modified their formulas to include DDGS along with oilseeds such as soybean or canola. Animal feed industry sources have stated that while the market for poultry, pork and beef in Mexico has increased marginally in 2011, the market for DDGS has continued growing. Currently there are no other countries exporting DDGS to Mexico and the United States should remain the key exporter in the foreseeable future. Soybean Meal Trade Imports of soybean meal are expected to increase in MY 2012/13 reflecting the continuing growth demand from the poultry and hog sectors. The soybean import estimate for MY 2010/11 has been revised downward form USDA/Official data based on updated trade data from SAGARPA and SHCP. The soybean import estimate for MY 2011/12 was revised upward based on discussions with industry sources. Rapeseed Trade Meal MY 2012/13 rapeseed meal imports should increase to 110,000 MT based on slight demand growth from the swine sector. Rapeseed and canola meal imports were revised downward in MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 from USDA/Official estimates based on official statistics released by SAGARPA and the SHCP as well as after conversations with market analysts. Sunflower Seed Meal Trade Sunflower seed meal imports are forecast to remain unchanged at 7,000 MT in MY 2012/13 from revised estimate of MY 2011/12. The Post/New import estimate of sunflower seed meal for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates reflecting official data and industry information. Table 8. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Total Meals 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Total Meals Market Year Begin: Sep 2010 Market Year Begin: Sep 2011 Market Year Begin: Sep 202 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 5,087 5,159 5,162 5,364 5,425 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 2 2 2 Beginning Stocks 8 8 33 4 30 Production 3,705 3,740 3,740 3,857 3,913 MY Imports 1,631 1,599 1,715 1,655 1,710 MY Imp. from U.S. 1,537 1,501 1,565 1,605 1,625 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 5,344 5,347 5,488 5,516 5,653 MY Exports 7 6 6 8 8 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 13 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 50 50 50 50 50 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 5,254 5,287 5,380 5,407 5,513 Total Dom. Cons. 5,304 5,337 5,430 5,457 5,563 Ending Stocks 33 4 52 51 82 Total Distribution 5,344 5,347 5,488 5,516 5,653 1000 MT, PERCENT Table 9. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Soybean Meal Meal, Soybean Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Sep 2010 Market Year Begin: Sep 2011 Market Year Begin: Sep 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 3,625 3,625 3,650 3,650 3,760 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 8 8 33 4 51 Production 2,857 2,857 2,875 2,875 2,960 MY Imports 1,500 1,470 1,550 1,580 1,600 MY Imp. from U.S. 1,500 1,470 1,550 1,580 1,600 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 4,365 4,335 4,458 4,459 4,611 MY Exports 7 6 6 8 8 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 50 50 50 50 50 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 4,275 4,275 4,350 4,350 4,450 Total Dom. Cons. 4,325 4,325 4,400 4,400 4,500 Ending Stocks 33 4 52 51 103 Total Distribution 4,365 4,335 4,458 4,459 4,611 1000 MT, PERCENT Table 10. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Rapeseed Meal Meal, Rapeseed Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 1,450 1,521 1,500 1,700 1,650 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 843 877 860 975 946 MY Imports 131 129 165 75 110 MY Imp. from U.S. 32 31 10 25 25 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 974 1,006 1,025 1,050 1,056 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 14 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 974 1,006 1,025 1,050 1,056 Total Dom. Cons. 974 1,006 1,025 1,050 1,056 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 974 1,006 1,025 1,050 1,056 1000 MT, PERCENT Table 11. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Sunflower Seed, Meal Meal, Sunflower seed Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 12 13 12 14 15 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 1 0 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 5 6 5 7 7 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 5 0 5 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 5 6 5 7 7 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 5 6 5 7 7 Total Dom. Cons. 5 6 5 7 7 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 5 6 5 7 7 1000 MT, PERCENT OIL PRODUCTION Post/New MY 2012/13 total Mexican oil production is forecast to decline slightly to 1.331 MMT compared to the Post/New estimate for MY 2011/12. The expected slowdown in the Mexican economy in 2012, rising production costs, and a bearish oil domestic market are the main arguments for this decline. Industry contacts have indicated that the crush is determined by domestic demand for vegetable oils. The New/Post estimate of total Mexican oil production for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates in accordance with more recent industry information. Industry contacts stated that leading oil companies have expanded capacities at their facilities or built new plants in an effort to service the Mexican vegetable oil sector. These analysts stated that between 2009 and 2011, the oils and crusher companies have invested approximately 90 million USD to expand capacities or construct new plants. For example, the company Industrial Patrona recently built a new plant in the state of Mexico while the company Ragasa acquired new equipment for its plastic bottling plant. Similarly, the company Oleofinos invested in a new plant to produce margarines and lard in the state of Jalisco and acquired a cookie company in New Mexico to distribute its products. Capacity remains highly concentrated in the hands of four leading companies (Aceites Grasas y Derivados, Ragasa, Proteinas y Oleicos, and Cargill) that continue to grow while medium and small crushers scale back their operations. Soybean Oil Production MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 15 The Post/New MY 2012/13 soybean oil production forecast increased 3 percent totaling 665,000 MT. Relatively stronger demand in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) sector and attractive prices are driving the increase. In MY 2011/12, soybean oil represents 49 percent of total Mexican oil output, with rapeseed oil representing 51 percent. However, for MY 2012/13 soybean oils are expect to represent 50 percent of total oil while rapeseed oil will represent the other 50 percent. The Post/New MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 production estimates of soybean oil are unchanged from USDA/Official estimates. Industry sources reported that crushers were operating at between 70 to 75 percent of capacity during 2011 due to better economic conditions. However, large crushers were operating between 85 and 90 percent of capacity and some were operating at an even higher level. As already mentioned the large crushers account for more than 70 percent of total oil production and have been investing heavily in their facilities. In addition, the largest crushers continue investing in marketing, packaging, and bottling. Market analysts mentioned that as result of the Mexican government?s decision to increase applied duties on vegetables oils (see 2010 GAIN Report MX0073 Mexico Increases Import Tariffs on Vegetable Oils), crushers have agreed to improve the domestic oilseed sector in order to be more competitive and so that the Mexican government maintains the duties on vegetable oils. Sunflower Oil Production Sunflower oil production is expected to remain unchanged at 6,000 MT in MY 2012/13 compared with revised estimate of MY 2011/12. The production of sunflower oil has remained stable for most of the past few years as alternative oilseeds have been more competitive. The Post/New MY 2010/11 sunflower oil production estimate has been revised upward from USDA/Official estimated reflecting industry information. Rapeseed Oil Production The New/Post estimates for rapeseed oil production for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been increased to 610,000 MT and 680,000 MT, respectively, from USDA/Official estimates due to higher- than-expected crush levels. In MY 2012/13, however, a lower crush is expected, assuming than other oilseeds (i.e. soybean) could be more competitive and could result in a production reaching only 660,000 MT. Price continues to be the predominant factor in marketing oilseed and oils and medium and big companies can substitute some oilseeds and vegetable oils for one another. OIL CONSUMPTION The Post/New MY 2012/13 total oil consumption forecast is estimated to decline by 30,000 MT to 1.682 MMT from the Post/New MY 2011/1|2 estimate due to the expected slowdown in the Mexican economy (see Oilseed Production Section). Post/New total oil consumption figures for MY?s 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates due to higher than expected crush levels. Soybean Oil Consumption The Post/New soybean oil consumption estimate for MY 2012/13 is forecast to increase slightly to 980,000 MT, assuming stable international prices. Post soybean oil consumption estimate for MY 2010/11 and MY2011/12 has been revised upward from USDA/Official data to 975,000 MT and 970,000 MT, respectively, due to stronger demand than previously estimated from the hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) sector as well as better awareness of soy oil characteristics among the Mexican consumers in the cooking oil sector. MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 16 Some years ago, soybean oil was considered a low-quality product by many Mexican consumers. However, through sophisticated and intensive marketing campaigns supported by the private sector, the perceptions of Mexican consumers regarding soybean oil changed substantially. Market analysts stated that although oil consumption remains strongly linked to price, middle and upper income consumer segments of the cooking oil market are becoming more aware of health aspects of soybean oil and, thus, are willing to pay more. As a result, some big vegetable oil companies have begun investing in marketing and are developing retail labels that promote the ?good for your health? angle. Sunflower Seed Oil Consumption It is expected that sunflower oil consumption will remain unchanged in MY 2012/13 due to the expected as alternative vegetable oils continue to be more price competitive. The Post/New estimate of sunflower oil consumption for MY 2010/11 has been revised downward reflecting updated information of industry sources. Rapeseed Oil Consumption Assuming less competitive prices in MY 2012/13, the Post/New MY 2012/13 rapeseed oil consumption forecast is expected to decrease to 700,000 MT. Moreover, this decrease reflects a drop in purchase power among the Mexican consumers due to the expected slowdown in the economy in 2012. The Post/New rapeseed consumption estimate for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/11 has been revised upward based on information from industry sources. Edible Oil Prices Domestic prices for edible oils have continued to increase over the past year except for corn oil. Soybean oil prices constituted the largest increase - 20 percent higher than the previous year. Safflower oil and mixed vegetables oil prices increased 2.8 and 9.7 percent, respectively. MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 17 Source: Servicio Nacional de Información de Mercados, SNIIM-SE. Exchange rate (March 29, 2012) US $ 1.00 = 12.80 Pesos Table 12: Mexico: Retail Edible Oil Prices in 2011 and 2012 Variety Presentation February 11 February 12 Mixed Vegetable Oils 1lt. 12 bottle box 229.25 251.50 Soybean Oil 1lt. 12 bottle box 240.00 288.00 Corn Oil Oil pot 20 Liters 582.00 426.60 Safflower seed Oil 1lt. 12 bottle box 250.00 257.00 Source: Servicio Nacional de Información de mercados, SNIIM-SE. Exchange rate (March 29, 2012) US $ 1.00 = 12.80 Pesos. OIL TRADE Mexico?s total oil imports are forecast to increase approximately 4.1 percent to 375,000 MT in MY 2011/12. However, this increase is to compensate for the decline in domestic crushing. As already mentioned, big and medium crushing companies occasionally find it more profitable to halt crushing and, instead, import oil rather than continue crushing. Imports from the United States are expected to account for approximately 88 percent of the total imports in MY 2012/13, mainly of soybean oil. The Post/New total oil import estimate for MY 2010/11 and MY2011/12 have been increase to 439,000 MT and 360,000 MT, respectively, according to revised information from SAGARPA, the SHCP and industry sources. Similarly, the Post/New export figures for MY 2011/12 were adjusted downward according to revised information from SAGARPA and industry contacts. Soybean Oil Trade MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 18 The Post/New soybean oil import estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 were revised upward in response to increased domestic demand and reflecting updated information of SAGARPA and SCHP. It should be noted, however, that several industry sources stated that the official data from SHCP and SAGARPA of soybean oil imports for calendar year (CY) 2011 are overestimated. They found some inconsistencies in the volumes registered on a monthly basis. These inconsistencies are also reflected in Global Trade Atlas data. According to the National Association of Oils, Fats and Shortening (ANIAME), total soybean oil imports in CY 2011 reached only 154,000 MT instead of the 205,000 MT reported in Mexico?s official data. ANIAME will approach SHCP and SAGARPA to clarify these inconsistencies. At this point, however, the Post/New soybean oil import forecast for MY 2012/13 is 320,000 MT, stable international prices. Sunflower Seed Oil Trade The Post/New MY 2012/13 import and export estimates are forecast to remain unchanged from the revised estimates for MY 2011/12. The Post/New MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 import estimates for sunflower seed oil were adjusted downward from official USDA/Official estimated based on official and industry information. Also, Post/New MY 2011/12 export estimates for sunflower seed were revised downward reflecting official data. Rapeseed Oil Trade For MY 2012/13, the Post/New rapeseed oil import is forecast to decline approximately 3 percent due to high prices and decreased demand. The Post/New rapeseed oil import estimates for MY 2010/11 were increased based on official data published by SAGARPA and the industry. Table 13: Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Total Oils TOTAL 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 O Market Year Begin: Sep 2010 Market Year Begin: Sep 2011 Market Year Begin: Sep 2012 ILS USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 5,087 5,159 5,162 5,364 5,425 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 Beginning Stocks 50 50 47 84 33 Production 1,225 1,255 1,255 1,336 1,331 MY Imports 281 439 250 360 385 MY Imp. from U.S. 205 322 185 298 339 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,556 1,744 1,552 1,780 1,749 MY Exports 30 30 34 30 30 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 1,474 1,625 1,460 1,712 1,682 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 5 5 5 5 5 Total Dom. Cons. 1,479 1,630 1,465 1,717 1,687 Ending Stocks 47 84 53 33 32 Total Distribution 1,556 1,744 1,552 1,780 1,749 1000 MT , Percent Table 14. Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Soybean Oil MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 19 Oil, Soybean Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Sep 2010 Market Year Begin: Sep 2011 Market Year Begin: Sep 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 3,625 3,625 3,650 3,650 3,760 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 35 35 22 49 10 Production 640 640 650 650 665 MY Imports 190 352 170 285 320 MY Imp. from U.S. 190 308 170 285 320 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 865 1,027 842 984 995 MY Exports 3 3 4 4 4 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 835 970 800 965 975 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 5 5 5 5 5 Total Dom. Cons. 840 975 805 970 980 Ending Stocks 22 49 33 10 11 Total Distribution 865 1,027 842 984 995 1000 MT, PERCENT Table 15: Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Rapeseed Oil Oil, Rapeseed Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 1,450 1,521 1,500 1,700 1,650 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 15 15 25 35 23 Production 580 610 600 680 660 MY Imports 55 57 50 50 40 MY Imp. from U.S. 9 10 9 9 15 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 650 682 675 765 723 MY Exports 2 2 2 2 2 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 623 645 653 740 700 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 623 645 653 740 700 Ending Stocks 25 35 20 23 21 Total Distribution 650 682 675 765 723 1000 MT, PERCENT Table 16: Mexico: Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) for Sunflower Seed Oil MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 20 Oil, Sunflower Seed Mexico 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 12 13 12 14 15 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 5 5 5 6 6 MY Imports 36 30 30 25 25 MY Imp. from U.S. 8 4 6 4 4 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 41 35 35 31 31 MY Exports 25 25 28 24 24 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 16 10 7 7 7 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 16 10 7 7 7 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 41 35 35 31 31 1000 MT, PERCENT FAS/Mexico Web Site: We are available at www.mexico-usda.com or visit the FAS headquarters' home page at www.fas.usda.gov for a complete selection of FAS worldwide agricultural reporting. FAS/Mexico YouTube Channel: Catch the latest videos of FAS Mexico at work http://www.youtube.com/user/ATOMexicoCity Other Relevant Reports Submitted by FAS/Mexico: Report Num Subject Date Submitted ber MX2016 Livestock and Products Semi-Annual: 03/21/2012 MX2012 Poultry and Products Semi-Annual 03/20/2012 MX1023 Oilseeds and Products Annual 04/01/2011 MX0073 Mexico Increase Import Tariffs on Vegetable Oils 10/15/2010 MX0022 Mexican Oilseeds Production Expected to Increase 04/15/2010 Useful Mexican Web Sites: Mexico's equivalent to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (SAGARPA) can be found at www.sagarpa.gob.mx and Mexico?s equivalent to the U.S. Department of Commerce (SE) can be found at www.economia.gob.mx. These web sites are mentioned for the readers' convenience but USDA does NOT in any way endorse, guarantee the accuracy of, or necessarily concur with, the information contained on the mentioned sites. Commodities: MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 21 Oil, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed MX2020 Mexico Oilseeds and Products Annual Report Page 22
Posted: 22 April 2012

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