Grain and Feed Update

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Morocco

Posted on: 13 Nov 2011

The Moroccan government has maintained its pre-harvest estimate of grain production for the 2010/11 crop at 8.76 million MT. Production of soft wheat is estimated at 4.5 million MT, durum wheat production at 1.85 million MT and barley production at 2.41 million MT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 8/23/2011 GAIN Report Number: MO1110 Morocco   Grain and Feed Update 2011 Approved By: Hassan F. Ahmed, U.S. Embassy, Rabat Prepared By: Idriss EL Honsali, U.S. Embassy, Rabat Report Highlights: The Moroccan government has maintained its pre-harvest estimate of grain production for the 2010/11 crop at 8.76 million MT. Production of soft wheat is estimated at 4.5 million MT, durum wheat production at 1.85 million MT and barley production at 2.41 million MT. There are some concerns about the milling quality of the wheat harvest in some areas due to a high percentage of wheat germination. Morocco?s wheat imports in MY 2010/2011 are estimated at 3.976 million MT, about 84 percent higher than imports in the previous year. U.S. exports of feed barley made a noticeable return to the Moroccan market in 2011 after being absent for two years, with a total of 37,000 MT in three equal shipments.   Production The Moroccan government has maintained its pre-harvest grain production estimate for the 2010/11 crop at 8.76 million MT. Production of soft wheat is estimated at 4.5 million MT, durum wheat at 1.85 million MT and barley at 2.41 million MT. This total grain production is about 18 percent higher than grain production level of 7.46 million MT in 2009/10. With the grain harvest completed by the end July, some agricultural analysts believe that total grain production may not exceed 8 million MT. The table below shows the breakdown of grain production in 2010/11, compared with production in 2008/09 and 2009/10 crop seasons. PS&D tables have been revised to reflect updated production and trade estimates for wheat and barley. Production of Wheat and Barley (1,000 MT) Durum Soft Total. Harvest Year Wheat Wheat Wheat Barley Total Production 2009 (actual) 2,100 4,300 6,400 3,800 10,200 2010 (actual) 1,640 3,247 4,887 2,570 7,457 2011 (estimate) 1,850 4,500 6,350 2,410 8,760 The overall quality of the wheat crop is reported to be satisfactory, although there have been some concerns about the milling quality of the harvest in several regions due to high percentage of kernel germination. This problem was mostly due to heavy rainfall and adverse weather conditions before and during the harvesting season. The Moroccan government has not provided any assessment of the magnitude of the quality damage or the size of the crop that was impacted. Due of the impact of the germination problem on the milling quality, some Moroccan wheat millers have been reluctant to pay farmers the full reference price of 2900 dirham/MT stipulated by the government for the local wheat harvest this year. To help mitigate this problem, the government lowered the quality standard for purchasing the local wheat crop this year compared to previous seasons. Trade Morocco?s wheat imports in MY 2010/2011 are estimated at 3.976 million MT, about 84 percent higher than imports in the previous year. This significant increase was mostly due to the suspension of wheat import duties and the import restitution scheme established the GOM to support imported wheat prices. France continued to control the largest share the Moroccan soft wheat market, with 63 percent, while Canada dominated the durum wheat import market with 78 percent. U.S. wheat exports to Morocco in MY 2010/2011 totaled 373,100 MT of soft wheat and accounted for about 12 percent of the Moroccan wheat market. This is compared to a total of 425,300 MT of U.S. wheat exports in MY 2009/2010, of which 355,000 MT soft wheat and 70,300 MT durum wheat. U.S. exports of feed barley made a noticeable return to the Moroccan market with of 37,000 MT in three equal shipments in 2011, after two years of absence from that market. The Moroccan importers took advantage of the relatively lower barley prices in the U.S. market this year as well as the preferential tariff rate 21 percent for U.S. exporters under the U.S.-Morocco FTA, compared to a common rate of 35 percent for other suppliers. Policy The GOM implemented several measures to control wheat prices in the local market in MY 2011. These measures included raising the reference price for purchasing local wheat from 2800 dirham/MT to 2900 dirham/MT ($367/MT) and providing a storage premium of 20 dirham per MT in biweekly periods for farmers to store their wheat at facilities licensed by the National Cereal Office (ONICL). Durum wheat import duties were lowered from 170 to 80 percent, effective August 2011, while soft wheat import duties were kept at 135 percent. Under the FTA, the preferential access tariff rates for U.S. wheat exports are set at 37.5 percent for durum wheat and at 83.7 percent for soft wheat. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics : Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Wheat, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT) 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Old Post Old Post Old Post Wheat Morocco Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested(1000 2,978 2,978 2,978 2,852 2,852 2,852 3,050 3,040 3,040 HA) Beginning Stocks 1,060 1,060 1,060 1,644 1,573 1,573 2,231 2,070 2,070 Production 6,400 6,400 6,400 4,887 4,887 4,887 5,900 5,900 6,350 MY Imports 2,304 2,312 2,312 4,100 3,900 3,976 2,100 2,100 2,100 TY Imports 2,304 2,312 2,312 4,100 3,900 3,976 2,100 2,100 2,100 TY Imp. from U.S. 431 355 355 0 490 373 0 350 350 Total Supply 9,764 9,772 9,772 10,631 10,360 10,436 10,231 10,070 10,520 MY Exports 120 100 100 100 90 90 100 90 90 TY Exports 120 100 100 100 90 90 100 90 90 Feed and Residual 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 150 490 FSI Consumption 7,900 7,999 7,999 8,200 8,100 8,176 8,300 8,100 8,210 Total Consumption 8,000 8,099 8,099 8,300 8,200 8,276 8,400 8,250 8,700 Ending Stocks 1,644 1,573 1,573 2,231 2,070 2,070 1,731 1,730 1,730 Total Distribution 9,764 9,772 9,772 10,631 10,360 10,436 10,231 10,070 10,520 Yield (MT/HA) 2. 2. 2.1491 2. 2. 1.7135 2. 2. 2.0888 Barley, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)  2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Barley Morocco USDA New USDA New USDA New Old Post Old Post Old Post Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested (1000 2,183 2,183 2,183 1,922 1,922 1,922 1,900 1,888 2,025 HA) Beginning Stocks 114 114 114 1,270 1,216 1,216 990 1,006 1,036 Production 3,800 3,800 3,800 2,570 2,570 2,570 3,100 3,100 2,410 MY Imports 256 225 225 200 220 250 200 190 250 TY Imports 256 225 225 200 220 250 200 190 250 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 70 Total Supply 4,170 4,139 4,139 4,040 4,006 4,036 4,290 4,296 3,696 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed and Residual 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,000 1,950 1,950 2,200 2,200 2,200 FSI Consumption 1,000 1,023 1,023 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,150 Total Consumption 2,900 2,923 2,923 3,050 3,000 3,000 3,250 3,250 3,350 Ending Stocks 1,270 1,216 1,216 990 1,006 1,036 1,040 1,046 346 Total Distribution 4,170 4,139 4,139 4,040 4,006 4,036 4,290 4,296 3,696 Yield (MT/HA) 2. 2. 1.7407 1. 1. 1.3371 2. 2. 1.1901                          
Posted: 13 November 2011

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