Grain and Feed Update

An Expert's View about Fiber Crops in Morocco

Posted on: 23 Jan 2012

The official estimates for the 2010/2011 grain production were revised slightly down, with soft wheat production at 4.17 million MT, durum wheat at 1.85 million MT and barley at 2.34 million MT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution 11/3/2011 Date: GAIN Report Number: MO1113 Morocco Grain and Feed Update 2011 Approved By: Hassan F. Ahmed, U.S. Embassy, Rabat Prepared By: Idriss El Honsali, U.S. Embassy, Rabat Report Highlights: The 2011/12 grain planting season in Morocco had a late start, with the first significant rainfalls arriving the week of October 24. Despite the delay of planting, agricultural experts remain hopeful for a good grain harvest. The official estimates for the 2010/2011 grain production were revised slightly down, with soft wheat production at 4.17 million MT, durum wheat at 1.85 million MT and barley at 2.34 million MT. The Moroccan government reached an agreement with the Bakeries Association to keep prices of subsidized bread unchanged and avoided a potential PR crisis before upcoming parliamentary elections. Tenders to import wheat in October under the TRQs of the FTAs with the U.S. and the EU were unsuccessful, due to importers’ expectation that the government would suspend wheat import duties that took place on November 15. Production The 2011/12 grain planting season in Morocco had a late start, with the first significant rainfalls arriving the week of October 24. Cumulative rainfalls during September- mid October period were 74 percent lower than their normal levels, and down 89 percent compared to the same time period last year. Heavy rainfall resumed in most of the grain production areas, in the Gharb, Doukkala and Saiss regions, through the first week of November. Despite the late start, Moroccan agricultural officials remain optimistic that the grain crop this season would be good, since many of the wheat farmers still have the opportunity to finish sowing their fields until the end of November. The Moroccan government has been encouraging farmers to use certified seeds by providing price support for seed planting. The government subsidizes about 40-60 percent of the costs of using certified seeds, with the subsidy amount increased this year by about 6 percent compared to last year. Currently, the area planted with certified seeds covers about 20 percent of the total grain crop. Official estimates for Morocco’s grain crop production in the 2010/2011 season were revised slightly down, with soft wheat production at 4.17 million MT, durum wheat at 1.85 million MT and barley production at 2.34 million MT. The table below shows the breakdown of Morocco’s grain production in the last three years. Production of Wheat and Barley (1,000 MT) Durum  Soft  Total.  Harvest Year Barley Total Production Wheat Wheat Wheat 2009 (actual) 2,100 4,300 6,400 3,800 10,200 2010 (actual)  1,640 3,247 4,887 2,570 7,457 2011 (actual)  1,850 4,170 6,020 2,340 8,360 Source: Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture  PS&D tables have been revised to reflect Post’s assessment of the production and utilization number as well as trade projection for wheat and barley. Consumption: Common (soft) wheat is a politically and socially sensitive commodity in Morocco. The government devised a mechanism by which bread wheat prices have been successfully maintained at low levels and the government treasury has supported the difference in the costs. In recent months, the Moroccan Bakery Association has threatened to increase the price of subsidized bread from 1.20 MD to 1.40 MD per loaf, citing rising production cost and energy prices. Through an agreement reached with the government to obtain electricity at preferential rates and receive wheat flour at the subsidized rate of 3500 MD/MT, the bakeries agreed to hold bread prices unchanged and the Moroccan government avoided a potential PR crisis of having bread prices rise before an upcoming parliamentary election campaign. A significant part of the 2010/2011 wheat crop has been damaged (germinating kernels) due to heavy rains and excessive moisture during harvest time. Though the government has not issued an estimate of the wheat quality damage, it has increased germination threshold percentage in the wheat it buys from farmers. Much of the sub-quality wheat that will not be suitable for flour milling, reportedly 10-15 percent, has to be utilized in animal feed. Post’s estimate for Morocco’s wheat import in MY 2011/2012 was revised upward, to 3.1 million MT, to reflect projected increase in soft wheat imports due to the quality issue. It should be noted that tenders to import wheat under the TRQs of Morocco’s respective FTAs with the U.S. and the EU that were issued by the Moroccan National Office of Cereals (ONICL) in 2011 have not been successful. Importers refrained from participating at the tender due to their expectation that the government will be suspending wheat imports duties. In fact, the suspension of import duties was announced and will be effective November 15. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Wheat, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT) 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Wheat Morocco USDA New USDA New USDA New Old Post Old Post Old Post Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested (1000 2,978 2,978 2,978 2,852 2,852 2,852 3,050 3,040 3,040 HA) Beginning Stocks 1,060 1,060 1,060 1,544 1,573 1,573 1,959 2,075 2,075 Production 6,400 6,400 6,400 4,887 4,887 4,887 6,100 6,020 5,800 MY Imports 2,304 2,312 2,312 3,903 3,976 3,976 2,600 2,500 3,100 TY Imports 2,304 2,312 2,312 3,903 3,976 3,976 2,600 2,500 3,100 TY Imp. from U.S. 431 355 355 336 373 373 0 450 460 Total Supply 9,764 9,772 9,772 10,334 10,436 10,436 10,659 10,595 10,975 MY Exports 120 100 100 125 85 85 100 90 110 TY Exports 120 100 100 125 85 85 100 90 110 Feed and Residual 100 100 100 100 100 100 500 350 550 FSI Consumption 8,000 7,999 7,999 8,150 8,176 8,176 8,250 8,200 8,200 Total Consumption 8,100 8,099 8,099 8,250 8,276 8,276 8,750 8,550 8,750 Ending Stocks 1,544 1,573 1,573 1,959 2,075 2,075 1,809 1,955 2,115 Total Distribution 9,764 9,772 9,772 10,334 10,436 10,436 10,659 10,595 10,975 Yield (MT/HA) 2. 2. 2.1491 2. 2. 1.7135 2. 2. 1.9079    Barley, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT) 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Barley Morocco USDA New USDA New USDA New Old Post Old Post Old Post Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested (1000 2,183 2,183 2,183 1,922 1,922 1,922 1,900 2,025 2,025 HA) Beginning Stocks 114 114 114 1,270 1,216 1,216 990 1,036 1,036 Production 3,800 3,800 3,800 2,570 2,570 2,570 3,100 2,410 2,340 MY Imports 256 225 225 200 250 250 200 250 400 TY Imports 256 225 225 200 250 250 200 250 400 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 12 12 0 70 70 Total Supply 4,170 4,139 4,139 4,040 4,036 4,036 4,290 3,696 3,776 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed and Residual 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,000 1,950 1,950 2,200 2,200 2,100 FSI Consumption 1,000 1,023 1,023 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,150 1,000 Total Consumption 2,900 2,923 2,923 3,050 3,000 3,000 3,250 3,350 3,100 Ending Stocks 1,270 1,216 1,216 990 1,036 1,036 1,040 346 676 Total Distribution 4,170 4,139 4,139 4,040 4,036 4,036 4,290 3,696 3,776 Yield (MT/HA) 2. 2. 1.7407 1. 1. 1.3371 2. 1. 1.1556          
Posted: 23 January 2012

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