New Zealand Cattle and Beef Semi-Annual Report

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in New Zealand

Posted on: 24 Mar 2012

The total kill for the marketing year 2012, which is the calendar year, is now forecast at 4.137 million head, up 6%.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 3/15/2012 GAIN Report Number: NZ1204 New Zealand Post: Wellington New Zealand Cattle and Beef Semi-Annual Report Report Categories: Livestock and Products Approved By: Joe Carroll Prepared By: David Lee-Jones Report Highlights: Excellent pasture growing conditions from October 2011 through March 2012 meant cattle stayed on farm in Q4, 2011, which should boost the 2012 total slaughter to 4.137 million head. This coupled with higher average carcass weights should see total beef production boosted by 6.5% to 652,000 Tons in 2012. Executive Summary 2012 The total kill for the marketing year 2012, which is the calendar year, is now forecast at 4.137 million head, up 6% on the previous forecast completed in September 2011. The factors which have driven the change are: The adult cattle kill in the December 2011 quarter was 20% behind the December 2010 quarter which wasn?t expected. The excellent pasture feed levels over most of the country made it possible for farmers to carry more stock into the summer months to control pastures and add extra carcass weight. Nationally this will result in stock which normally would have been killed in Q4, 2011 having their slaughter dates pushed forward into Q1 or Q2 in 2012. The cow kill is expected to be boosted this year as kill numbers become more aligned with the larger beef and dairy cow herd. With a total reproductive cow herd now standing at just on 5.9 million head close to 1 million cows could be culled each year in a status quo situation. It is anticipated that the total cow herd will grow by year end by another 80-90,000 head with 70- 80,000 head being dairy cows which will stock an additional 80-120 new dairy farms for 2012. The forecast cow kill has been estimated from the potential kill less the anticipated retentions which gives the forecast number of 910,000 head. Quarter four 2012 is expected to provide 500,000 head of adult stock (including cows) for slaughter which will be 70,000 head more than Q4, 2011. In addition the calf kill is anticipated to increase marginally (1%) from 2011 but by 4% from the previous forecast. This forecast is based on 2011?s substantially increased kill becoming more of a benchmark level and with the extra dairy cows calving in 2012 there should be some extra calves to go to slaughter. Overall beef production for 2012 is forecast at 652,000T which will be a 6.5% increase on the previous forecast due to: firstly, the additional slaughter numbers; and secondly average carcass weights rising as a result of the well above average pasture growth rates over late Q4, 2011 and Q1, 2012 allowing cattle to be fed more and for longer. Not only will cattle slaughtered in Q1 and Q2, 2012 benefit from this but cattle destined for slaughter in Q4 will go into the winter (late Q2 through Q3) heavier. Domestic consumption in 2012 is estimated at 120,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE). This should mean that there will be 544,000 T CWE available for export which would be an 8% improvement on the initial forecast for 2012, and the previous year?s performance. While prices for imported manufacturing beef in the US are at all time highs the NZ currency is riding high against the USD. Exporters can sometimes find markets for manufacturing beef elsewhere in the Pacific which return more in NZD. Post is expecting exports to the US to be relatively stable at 215,000 T CWE. Although with an expected higher cow kill and slightly increased bull meat tonnage it is likely the risk is to an upside swing for exports to the US. 2011 Now that 2011 is history the final tallies for actual slaughter numbers are in which show total slaughter numbers reaching 3.939 million head. This was just under 1% higher than the September 2011 estimate. A far larger calf kill than had been anticipated (+93,000 head) was offset partially by a reduced adult cattle kill. The increased calf kill resulted from a greater natural increase number form the larger cow herd and better prices being offered. As indicated in the 2012 narrative very good feed conditions over Q4, 2011 meant farmers held onto stock to control pastures and add extra weight which resulted in the lower than expected Q4, 2011 slaughter numbers. Total beef production came in at 601,000 T CWE just 9,000 T less than expected. It would appear that the relative expense of beef prices in the supermarkets coupled with consumers still feeling the effects of the economic downturn has taken the edge off domestic consumption which is estimated at 110,000 T CWE. This allowed total exports for 2011 to reach 503,000T CWE, 2000T CWE ahead of the September, 2011 estimate. Exports to the US were just ahead of previous estimates at 213,000T CWE. Looking Ahead Preliminary forecasts would put the 2013 year at having a similar level of export tonnage to the 2012 year. New Zealand Beef Production Table Marketing 2010 2011 2012 Forecasts Year Est. numbers Total CW numbers Total Est. numbers Total tons CW to kill tons kgs/hd to kill tons CW to kill Beef kgs/hd Beef Beef kgs/hd Cow 198.0 868 171944 200.2 806 161380 202 910 183820 Slaughter Calf 16.3 1,562 25543 16.3 1,665 27146 16.30 1,680 27384 Slaughter Heifer 234.8 493 115632 235.2 481 113209 236 515 121540 Slaughter Steer 309.1 632 195236 305.5 572 174690 310 604 187240 slaughter Bull 307.3 437 134174 299.6 415 124252 308 428 131824 Slaughter Other Adult 285.1 1,561 445041 280.8 1,468 412151 284.8 1,547 440604 Cattle SubTotal Total 161.0 3,992 642,529 152.5 3,939.0 600,678 157.6 4,137 651808 Slaughter Sources: B&LNZ, StatisticsNZ, Post?s Estimates Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Animal Numbers, Catt 2010 2011 2012 le New Market Year Market Year Market Year Zealand Begin: Jan 2010 Begin: Jan 2011 Begin: Jan 2012 Off. New Post Off. New Post Off. New Post (1000hd, %) Data Data Data Data Data Data Total Cattle Beg. Stks 9,917 9,917 9,907 9,864 10,050 10,058 Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks 4,597 4,597 4,700 4,680 4,800 4,810 Beef Cows Beg. Stocks 1,096 1,096 1,114 1,117 1,100 1,082 Production (Calf Crop) 4,559 4,530 4,710 4,747 4,760 4,880 Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 14,476 14,447 14,617 14,611 14,810 14,938 Total Exports 27 27 28 34 30 30 Cow Slaughter 868 868 822 806 820 910 Calf Slaughter 1,562 1,562 1,572 1,665 1,610 1,680 Other Slaughter 1,561 1,561 1,510 1,468 1,470 1,547 Total Slaughter 3,991 3,991 3,904 3,939 3,900 4,137 Loss 551 565 635 580 660 581 Ending Inventories 9,907 9,864 10,050 10,058 10,220 10,190 Total Distribution 14,476 14,447 14,617 14,611 14,810 14,938 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory Balance (10) (53) 143 194 170 132 Inventory Change 2 2 0 (1) 1 2 Cow Change 4 4 2 0 1 0 Production Change 1 1 3 5 1 3 Production to Cows 80 80 81 82 81 83 Slaughter to Inventory 40 40 39 40 39 41 Slaughter to Total Supply 28 28 27 27 26 28 TS=TD 0 0 0 Mea t, Beef & Veal 2010 2011 2012 New Zea Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Jan land 2010 Jan 2011 2012 New Of New Post f. Data D Off. Data Post Off. Da New Post ta ata Data (1000hd,1000MT CWE) Data Slaughter (Reference) 3,991 3,991 3,904 3,939 3,900 4,137 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production 643 643 610 601 612 652 Intra-EU Imports 0 0 0 0 Other Imports 11 11 12 12 12 12 Total Imports 11 11 12 12 12 12 Total Supply 654 654 622 613 624 664 Intra EU Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Exports 530 530 501 503 504 544 Total Exports 530 530 501 503 504 544 Human Dom. Consumption 124 124 121 110 120 120 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 124 124 121 110 120 120 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 654 654 622 613 624 664 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 235 222 221 213 0 215 Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Weights 161 161 156 153 157 158 Production Change 3 3 (5) (7) 0 8 Import Change 10 10 9 9 0 0 Export Change 3 3 (5) (5) 1 8 Consumption Change 3 3 10 (11) (1) 9 Imports Percent Consumption 9 9 10 11 10 10 Exports Percent Production 82 82 82 84 82 83 Population 4,252,277 4,252,277 4,290,347 4290347 4,327,944 4,388,000 Per Capita Consumption 29 29 28 26 28 27 TS=TD 0 0 0 Note. These are not official USDA forecasts. Sources: Post, Global Trade Atlas, MAF, StatisticsNZ, Beef&LambNZ
Posted: 24 March 2012

See more from Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in New Zealand

Expert Views    
New Zealand Agriculture Policy Review   By Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Agricultural Biotechnology Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Exporter Guide   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Food and Agricultural Import Regulations and Standards   By Foreign Agricultural Service
New Zealand Potato Sector Annual Update 2012   By Foreign Agricultural Service