Dairy and Products Semi-annual

An Expert's View about Food , Beverages and Tobacco in New Zealand

Posted on: 20 May 2012

High Pasture Growth Fuels Surge in New Zealand Milk Production.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 5/3/2012 GAIN Report Number: NZ1205 New Zealand Dairy and Products Semi-annual High Pasture Growth Fuels Surge in New Zealand Milk Production Approved By: Joseph Carroll, Agricultural Counselor Prepared By: David Lee-Jones, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Increased Cow Numbers and a great 12 months of pasture growth have combined to create a “super flush” of milk which surpassed all previous peaks of daily production. Milk production in 2012 is projected to reach 19.9 MMT, 5% higher than last year’s record production level. Executive Summary “A Super Flush Occurs” A combination of pent up capacity to produce and an incredible period of pasture production has given rise to what some have called a “super flush of milk production”. From March 2011 right through to April 2012 pasture production has been above normal over much of New Zealand. A La Nina weather pattern has contributed to a distribution of rain which was frequent and even. Air temperatures were cooler than normal which improved pasture quality. Benefiting from the latter half of the golden production season, 2012 milk production is now projected to reach 19.9 million metric tons (MMT). This would put 2012 milk production 5% ahead of 2011’s estimated record production level of 18.97 MMT, which in turn was 10.4% higher than the previous year. As a direct consequence of the projected increase in milk production, dairy product production is also expected to increase. There are no government intervention schemes and commercial processors don’t generally accumulate stocks to short the market. So, as production increases so too do exports. Because New Zealand has such a small domestic market, 96% of total milk production in 2012 is likely to be processed into products for export. For the PSD categories Whole Milk Powder (WMP), Non Fat Dry Milk/Skim Milk Powder (SMP), Cheese, and Butter, 2012 production is expected to reach a total of 2.37 MMT, up 7.8% from the estimated 2011 production level of 2.19 MMT. Total exports of the above product categories are forecast at 2.3 MMT in 2012. Closing stocks are projected to increase by 13% to close at 260,000 MT as processors adjust to the logistics required for the increase in production. This level of exports would be 6% ahead of the 2011 total of 2.17 MMT. As has been the case in the recent past, WMP production is likely to be the big mover. For 2012, WMP production is forecast at 1.24 MMT, 10% higher than the 2011 production level estimated at 1.125 MMT. Exports of WMP will similarly increase in 2012, and are forecast at 1.22 MMT, 10% ahead of 2011. On the trade front, China has become a cornerstone market especially for the burgeoning WMP exports. An estimated 302,261 MT of WMP was shipped to China in 2011, accounting for 93% of China’s total WMP imports for the year. WMP made up 65% of NZ’s total volume of dairy product shipments to China in 2011. While the growth trend for WMP exports to China appears to have leveled off somewhat, exports of other product categories such as fats, Cheese, Liquid Milk, and SMP are still showing impressive upwards trajectories. Exports to the US continue to be focused on protein ingredient products such as Milk Protein Concentrates, and Casein with fat shipments at useful levels. The US continues to be the second most valuable export destination for NZ dairy products, accounting for 6.6% of total export receipts in 2011, with 2011 export revenues up 31% compared to sales in 2010. This reflected the strength of dairy markets all round the world in 2011. In 2012, the New Zealand policy and regulatory fields were dominated by the impending passage of amendments to the Dairy Industry Restructuring Act (DIRA) which sets the ground rules for the dominant player at processor level, the Fonterra Cooperative. In addition, Fonterra is attempting to complete the third leg of its capital restructuring plan entitled “Trading Among Farmers” Implementation of the plan is dependent upon enactment of some of the changes proposed for DIRA. “Trading Among Farmers” would see Fonterra relinquish the onus of having to redeem or issue shares to farmers as their production falls or rises. Instead farmers would trade shares on an exchange among themselves as and when they chose. (Note: For Dairy GAIN and PSD reports the Calendar year is the Marketing Year) Commodities: Dairy, Milk, Fluid Dairy, Butter Dairy, Cheese Dairy, Dry Whole Milk Powder Dairy, Milk, Nonfat Dry Milk Production Sources: Livestock Improvement Corporation (LIC), DairyNZ, StatsNZ, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), Post Estimates 2012 Post’s forecast of 2012 milk production is increased (4.5%) to 19.9 MMT, up just under 5% from the estimated 2011 production level. Favorable weather conditions experienced in Q4 2011 were continued into the first half of 2012. Q1, 2012 production is provisionally estimated at 9.8% above that of the previous year owing to the cool summer temperatures, sufficient rainfall which has ensured high pasture growth rates, and better than average pasture quality. The impressive rate of growth in milk production will likely be sustained through Q2, 2012. For the 2nd half of 2012, Post is estimating production gains of 1% over 2011 based on: Normal weather patterns (some long term models are suggesting a return to El Nino conditions which often causes dry conditions on the East Coast) 80,000 extra cows (+1.8%) spread over 70 to 80 new conversions and some increases to existing herds. Even though cows will be in generally good condition and there will be above average levels of supplementary feed on hand especially in the North Island it is unlikely the super flush conditions of equable weather and sustained high pasture growth rates observed in October to December 2011 will be repeated over the whole of the North Island again in 2012. 2011 With La Nina weather patterns giving all of New Zealand except Southland excellent growing conditions late in 2011 final milk production finished at 18.97 MMT up 10.4% from 2010. This is 1.5% higher than Post’s previous forecast of 18.68 MMT. The main reasons for this enormous production jump are: There has been latent capacity to increase production owing to the increase in cow numbers and general farm productivity improvements over the last 4 to 5 years, which has not been realized until the 2011 year. Very good weather conditions: enough rainfall and generally cooler conditions over most of the country for 10 months of the year meant pasture growth and quality has been well ahead of expected levels. Cow numbers were up by 130,000 head. Cows commenced milking in spring 2011(August/September) in generally better condition than previous years. There was enough supplemental feed on hand or available to purchase to ensure satisfactory cow nutrition at all times. Dairy Product Production CY 2012 In response to the greater availability of milk, total production of PSD dairy products in 2012 is forecast at 2.37 MMT, 3% higher than Post’s previous forecast, and a 7.8% increase over the previous year. Whole Milk Powder (WMP) Once again production of WMP is expected to surge, and is forecast at 1.24 MMT in 2012, 12 percent higher than Post’s previous forecast, and 10% higher than the estimated 2011 production level. A major powder drying processing facility will be commissioned during the year and a smaller processor will complete its first full 12 months of operation in 2012. WMP is still seen as the growth format. Although for 6 months (March through Aug) of 2011 the sales of the SMP/fat combination valued protein higher than WMP, this advantage has been eliminated and presently the outlook for SMP is not as good with surpluses of this product available from other origins. Therefore it is assumed that production of WMP will be maximized to continue the trend established over the last 10 years. This format is the most cost effective for NZ processors to manufacture, ship, and market. Butter, Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) and other Fat Products Post forecasts 2012 butter production at 482,000MT, 1.6% lower than Post’s previous estimate, and 5% higher than the estimated 2011 production level. It is expected that most of the increased supply of milk in will go into WMP production. However, it is quicker to manufacture Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) and SMP, consequently during the peak milk-flows of spring (Oct to Dec), AMF and SMP will be produced in order to process the daily tidal wave of milk, even if they are not as valuable as WMP. (Note the PSD total adjusts AMF volume to a butter equivalent by multiplying the AMF tonnage by 1.22). Non-Fat Dried Milk/Skim Milk Powder (SMP) For SMP Post has revised the 2012 production forecast down to 380,000MT a decline of 13.6% from our earlier forecast. However this will still be 5.6% higher than the revised estimate for the 2011 level. The same factors that drive butter and fat production drive SMP production. Cheese Total cheese production in 2012 is forecast at 265,000MT, up marginally (1.9%) from the previous forecast. While this would be a 15,000MT increase on the 2011 production level it is more a manufacturing necessity than a preference. Cheese is not a favored format at present because: the price/cost relationship heavily favors WMP; as a rule it needs to be stored onshore longer; and the market outlook is weaker than for the powders. At present the cheese plants in NZ are only put to work to deal with the seasonal peak flows in the spring early summer. However it should be noted that Whey protein products (a by-product of the cheese making process) are in demand and selling at good prices. CY 2011 Total Production of WMP, SMP, cheese, and butter in 2011 is estimated at 2.19MMT up marginally (5,000MT) from Post’s previous estimate. Whole Milk Powder (WMP) Whole milk powder production in 2011 is now estimated at 1.125MMT, 12.5% higher than the previous estimate. Butter, Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) and other Fat Products As a result of lower than expected total exports and smaller than anticipated closing stocks, 2011 production is estimated at 459,000MT, 6.7% lower than Post’s earlier estimate. Non-Fat Dried Milk/Skim Milk Powder (SMP) SMP production varies in tandem with fat production. So for the 2011 year there is a corresponding reduction in the revised estimate for SMP, which is estimated at 360,000MT. This is a change of 80,000MT or 18%. Cheese For 2011, cheese production is estimated at 250,000MT just under 3% less than the previous estimate. New Zealand: Overview of Dairy Processors (other than Fonterra) Estimated Milk Estimated Accessed Estimated Date Total Milk under Milk Established Processed DIRA Processed Company & Company 2011/12 2011/12 2012/13 Product Name Description Type Season 1/ Season Season Focus Millions of kilograms of milk solids North Island Caseinates, Tatua 1919 Cooperative 17.5 4.3 17.5 AMF, Specialty Products Goodman a te F 24 24 24 Yogurt and ield Corporer Fluid Milk Op Cheese, Whey en C (low protein), ountry 2007 Corporate 48 4.3 48 D WMP, SMP, airy AMF NZ Dairy Processing 2010 Corporate 0 0 5 Ltd UHT liquid milk M completed & iraka Milk orp/Iwi 13.5 4.3 17.5 in operation C WMP/SMP AMF Planning Corporate. Capital Won’t be Arapuni Milk Raising, built in time 0 0 0 Coy (Zoagn Consents for 12/13 Ltd) granted season WMP Corporate D g integrated airyland in plannin 0 0 0 stages farming & processing WMP/SMP AMF Est. N.I. 103 36.9 112 South Island Milk Powder, Westland Butter, AMF, Milk 1937 Cooperative 56 4.3 57 Caseins, Products Caseinates etc. Open Whey (low Country 2007 Corporate 25 0 25 protein), WMP, Dairy SMP, AMF WMP and Child NZ Dairies 2007 Corporate 18 3 18 Nutrition Products WMP, AMF, SMP, Enfant Synlait 2008 Corporate 39 4.3 42 formula & Nutritional Products Cadbury Corporate 2.2 2.2 2.2 Confectionary M In process of ataura Val raising Corporate 0 0 0 ley Milk capital WMP site Oceania Milk purchased by Corporate 0 0 0 Synlait WMP Corporate. opening Aug Nutritional Gardians 2011 2012. 0 0 7 powders. Est. S.I. 140.2 13.8 144.2 Other Various, Small 3 3 3 artisan Processors cheeses etc Total NZ 246.2 53.7 259.2 Source: Post estimates PSD Tables Dairy, Milk, 2010 2011 2012 Fluid New Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Zealand New New New (1000 Hd, cial Post Post Official Post Post Official Post Post 1000M OffiT) Data Estimate Data Data Estimate Data Data Estimate Data Cows In Milk 4680 4680 4680 4820 4820 4810 4930 4930 4890 Cows Milk P 17173 17173 17173 18681 18681 18965 19023 19023 19874 roduction Other Milk P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 roduction Total Production 17173 17173 17173 18681 18681 18965 19023 19023 19874 Other Imports 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Total Imports 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Total Supply 17175 17175 17175 18683 18683 18967 19025 19025 19876 Other Exports 123 123 123 120 120 123 125 125 125 Total Exports 123 123 123 120 120 123 125 125 125 Fluid Use Dom. Con 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 sum. Factory Use C 16702 16702 16702 18213 18213 18494 18550 18550 19401 onsum. Feed Use Dom. C 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 onsum. Total Dom. C 052 17052 17052 18563 18563 18844 18900 18900 19751 onsumpt 17ion Total Distribution 17175 17175 17175 18683 18683 18967 19025 19025 19876 CY Imp. from U 0 0 0 0 0 0 .S 0 . CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 Dairy, Dry 2 0 1 0 2011 2012 Whole Milk Powder New Market Year Begin: Jun 2010 Market Year Begin: Jun 2011 Market Year Begin: Jun 2012 Zealand Old New USDA Old New USDA Old New (1000 USDA MT) Official Post Post Official Post Post Official Post Post Beginning Stocks 100 100 100 100 100 100 49 99 115 Production 947 947 947 1,000 1,000 1,125 1,110 1,110 1,239 Other Imports 2 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 Total Imports 2 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 Total Supply 1,049 1,049 1,049 1,100 1,100 1,226 1,159 1,209 1,355 Other Exports 948 948 948 1,050 1,000 1,110 1,093 1,093 1,222 Total Exports 948 948 948 1,050 1,000 1,110 1,093 1,093 1,222 Human Dom. Con 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 s. Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total Use 949 949 949 1,051 1,001 1,111 1,094 1,094 1,223 Ending Stocks 100 100 100 49 99 115 65 115 132 Total Distribution 1,049 1,049 1,049 1,100 1,100 1,226 1,159 1,209 1,355 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 2 TS=TD 0 0 0 Dairy, Milk, Non 2010 2011 2012 fat Dry New Zea rket Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan land Ma 2010 2011 2012 USDA Old New USDA Old New USDA Old New (1000 MT) Official Post Post Official Post Post Official Post Post Beginning Stocks 50 50 50 50 50 50 80 80 47 Production 344 344 344 440 440 360 430 440 380 Other Imports 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 Total Imports 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 Total Supply 397 397 397 493 493 412 513 523 429 Other Exports 344 344 344 410 410 362 450 460 376 Total Exports 344 344 344 410 410 362 450 460 376 Human Dom. Con 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 s. Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total Use 347 347 347 413 413 365 453 463 379 Ending Stocks 50 50 50 80 80 47 60 60 50 Total Distribution 397 397 397 493 493 412 513 523 429 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 TS=TD 0 0 0 Dai 2010 2011 2012 ry, Butter New Zea Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan land Market 2 0 1 0 2011 2012 USDA Old New USDA Old New USDA Old New (1000 MT) Official Post Post Official Post Post Official Post Post Beginning Stocks 56 56 56 50 50 50 70 70 45 Production 441 441 441 492 492 459 490 490 482 Other Imports 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total Imports 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total Supply 498 498 498 543 543 510 561 561 528 Other Exports 428 428 428 453 453 448 481 481 458 Total Exports 428 428 428 453 453 448 481 481 458 Domestic Cons. 20 20 20 20 20 17 20 20 20 Total Use 448 448 448 473 473 465 501 501 478 Ending Stocks 50 50 50 70 70 45 60 60 50 Total Distribution 498 498 498 543 543 510 561 561 528 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 35 22 22 12 12 22 15 15 17 TS=TD 0 0 0 Dairy, Cheese 2010 2011 2012 New Zea Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan land 2 0 1 0 2011 2012 USDA Old New USDA Old New USDA Old New (1000 MT) Official Post Post Official Post Post Official Post Post Beginning Stocks 55 55 55 40 40 40 25 40 22 Production 268 268 268 257 257 250 280 260 265 Other Imports 6 6 6 3 3 5 3 3 5 Total Imports 6 6 6 3 3 5 3 3 5 Total Supply 329 329 329 300 300 295 308 303 292 Other Exports 265 265 265 255 240 253 250 238 245 Total Exports 265 265 265 255 240 253 250 238 245 Human Dom. Cons. 24 24 24 20 20 20 25 25 20 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 24 24 24 20 20 20 25 25 20 Total Use 289 289 289 275 260 273 275 263 265 Ending Stocks 40 40 40 25 40 22 33 40 27 Total Distribution 329 329 329 300 300 295 308 303 292 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 7 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 TS=TD 0 0 0 Note 1: Non butter fat products such as AMF are brought up to a butter equivalency by multiplying by 1.22. Note 2: These tables are not official USD forecasts. Exports/Ending Stocks Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) CY 2012 For 2012 the main four commodity groups are forecast to see a total of 2.3 MMT exported from NZ, which is 1.3% higher than Post’s initial forecast and 6% greater than estimated exports in 2011. The projected increase in exports is attributed to increased milk flows. Ending stocks are also expected to increase, and are projected at 259,000 tons (up 13% for the 2011 level). Generally, Kiwi milk processors aim to minimize stock holdings and don’t aim to short the market by building up inventories as the sector is far too transparent now for that to have a material benefit to overall average product prices. Ending stocks are generally rising in line with increases in production. However, product is normally held on shore for one to six months, and during the peak milk flow months (October through December) there are logistical bottlenecks which are likely to see the calendar year inventories increase at a higher rate than the average milk flow percentage increase. WMP WMP exports in 2012 are forecast at 1.22 MMT, 12% higher than Post’s previous forecast, but in line with recent trends. In addition it is likely that year-on-year ending stocks will increase by 17,000MT to 132,000MT. SMP With the anticipated increase in the production of fat and SMP it is forecast that this will translate into an increased year on year export tonnage of SMP, which is forecast at 376,000MT. This is significantly (18%) lower than Post’s previous forecast because SMP pricing has now fallen back into line with WMP and there is no incentive to produce extra AMF/SMP at the expense of WMP production. Butter, Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) and other Fat Products Total fat product exports are now forecast to reach 458,000MT (all products adjusted to butter equivalent) which is 5% less than Post’s previous forecast. AMF prices peaked in February/March 2011 and have been trending down ever since. There is no incentive now to increase fat production over and above regular customer demand except when manufacturing constraints dictate AMF/SMP production to speed raw milk through the processing system. Cheese The gradual decline in cheese exports is expected to continue, with exports in 2012 forecast at 245,000MT, which is 7,000MT better than previous forecasts but still 8,000MT less than exports in 2011. CY 2011 In 2011, New Zealand exported an estimated total of 2.17 MMT of dairy products from the main four commodities (WMP, SMP, Fat, and Cheese), which is about 3% higher than Post’s earlier estimate and 9.5% higher than exports in 2010. The increase in exports is broadly in line with greater milk production (up 10.4%) in 2011. Ending stocks are estimated at 229,000MT which would be 11,000MT less than the previous year but is not regarded as a significant change. WMP Total exports of WMP in 2011 are estimated at 1.11 MMT, 13% higher than the earlier estimate and 17% higher than 2010 exports. For the period 1992 through 2011, an exponential trend best fits the progression for the volume of WMP exports. This is exceptional but won’t be able to be continued indefinitely. SMP SMP exports during 2011 totaled an estimated 362,000 MT, 12 % lower than Post’s previous estimate, but 5% higher than 2010 exports. SMP prices peaked during mid 2011 which was likely too late for the processors to fully exploit and for the 2nd Half, 2011 SMP and WMP prices were more aligned which resulted in production and exports of WMP being emphasized. Butter/AMF Total fat product (in tons butter equivalent) exports reached an estimated 448,000 MT in 2011 which was 4.7% higher than 2010 but 5,000 MT less than previously expected. Fat and SMP prices peaked in February/March 2011 which supported export increases but probably came a bit late in the 2010/11 milk supply season to alter production significantly. Cheese Cheese exports is 2011 totaled an estimated 253,000 MT, which was a 12,000 MT year on year reduction (-4.5%) but not as great as previously expected. However this result still falls in line with trends to minimize cheese production and exports from NZ. Trade Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) New Zealand Dairy Product Exports Annual Series: 2006 - 2011 % Chan % United States Dollars ge Mark Destinati 2010 et on to Share Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2011 280,300,05 317,730,44 374,212,47 667,100,79 1,387,668, 1,788,885,5 China 3 8 6 7 441 85 28.9% 17.5% United 528,417,65 621,199,66 705,889,14 541,790,68 514,622,52 673,265,04 States 2 7 2 4 0 1 30.8% 6.6% 287,210,25 379,975,13 486,583,88 315,095,64 404,797,95 469,192,18 Japan 9 0 6 0 0 9 15.9% 4.6% 219,069,99 275,360,65 366,541,55 259,414,03 396,888,01 426,393,14 Australia 3 2 8 6 7 3 7.4% 4.2% Philippin 234,286,99 384,007,27 386,339,32 260,750,45 389,398,48 414,122,03 es 2 2 9 3 6 1 6.3% 4.1% 129,897,90 168,175,63 212,607,50 156,116,12 164,667,79 389,919,08 136.8 Algeria 6 8 8 2 5 7 % 3.8% Saudi 196,323,23 292,797,43 370,671,89 191,141,26 286,994,43 389,862,48 Arabia 3 8 6 2 8 5 35.8% 3.8% Venezuel 109,767,18 261,790,08 466,664,81 224,827,72 334,980,02 378,373,32 13.0% 3.7% a 3 5 5 5 5 6 151,115,93 273,092,77 370,767,50 222,863,84 286,114,71 366,393,50 Malaysia 6 9 6 6 4 6 28.1% 3.6% 150,276,69 196,673,98 323,558,63 UAE 81,049,081 75,873,247 89,628,872 0 7 0 64.5% 3.2% Rest of 2,452,234, 3,311,163, 3,540,206, 2,737,478, 3,782,844, 4,580,433,2 World 600 291 610 761 295 43 21.1% 44.9% Total 4,669,672, 6,361,165, 7,370,113, 5,726,856, 8,145,650, 10,200,398, 100.0 Exports 886 652 600 013 665 270 25.2% % Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) New Zealand: Dairy Products to Top Five Markets (CY2011/metric tons) China USA Japan Australia Philippines World Total Liquid Milk (T) 18,747 0 0 8,204 38,454 123,280 SMP 77,474 513 5,021 5,395 33,712 361,625 WMP 302,261 2,399 1 11,660 27,661 1,109,636 Consumer Products 2,451 33 3,791 2,983 8,826 45,573 MPC 1,785 46,353 2,631 1,381 1,290 77,953 Butter & Fats 34,451 18,931 5,246 16,946 11,303 413,490 Cheese 13,535 1,875 61,174 46,472 10,186 252,839 Casein 6,336 29,456 8,472 990 905 65,656 Whey Products 10,510 4,628 4,498 2,758 188 29,995 Other Products inc Lactose 261 137 3,769 2,106 0 19,294 Total Volume 467,811 104,325 94,603 98,895 132,525 2,499,341 Total Value in 1000's USD $1,788,886 $673,265 $469,192 $426,393 $414,122 $10,200,398 Price per Metric Ton in USD $3,824 $6,454 $4,960 $4,312 $3,125 $4,081 Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) New Zealand Dairy Product Export Statistics To United States (Quantity (T), USD, USD/T) Calendar Years 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Liquid Milk (T) 0 512 931 582 120 0 SMP 200 204 86 178 203 513 WMP 2919 1830 693 3233 328 2399 Consumer Products 14 30 173 81 60 33 Milk Protein Concentrates 48209 50289 47752 41850 43654 46353 Butter & Fats 24439 27851 20497 31496 18502 18931 Cheese 29421 26356 16549 17465 5291 1875 Casein 34881 43947 37628 32022 22999 29456 Whey Products 4821 5635 4367 6674 5179 4628 Other Products incl Lactose 130 44 111 99 103 137 Total Quantity (T) Exported 145034 156698 128787 133680 96439 104325 Total Value in millions USD 528.4 621.2 705.9 541.8 514.6 673.3 Average Price in USD/Ton 3643 3964 5481 4053 5336 6454 Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) New Zealand Dairy Product Export Statistics To China (Quantity (T), USD, USD/T) Calendar Years 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Liquid Milk(T) 1962 3084 4611 5585 8168 18747 SMP 34709 16021 19275 50199 50790 77474 WMP 61542 51237 44800 171491 294181 302261 Consumer Products 258 181 168 3874 2987 2451 Milk Protein Concentrates 802 2141 1258 1715 1383 1785 Butter & Fats 12093 10886 11146 26720 19351 34451 Cheese 4188 6209 6259 9222 11702 13535 Casein 2580 1895 1549 3199 4872 6336 Whey Products 6260 5254 8271 8889 7806 10510 Other Products incl Lactose 1818 244 1316 4103 328 261 Total Quantity (T) Exported 126212 97152 98653 284997 401568 467811 Total Value in millions USD 280.3 317.7 374.2 667.1 1387.7 1788.9 Average Price in USD/Ton 2221 3270 3793 2341 3456 3824 Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) China has become a very important market for the New Zealand Dairy industry: it has been the leading market by value for the last three years and is also the market which takes the largest volume. New Zealand supplied 93% of the total WMP imported in to China in 2011 up from 89% in the previous two years. Interestingly New Zealand has a FTA with China but in 2011 only 29% of the total volume of milk powders shipped by New Zealand to China was at the lower tariff rate of 6.7%. The rest of the volume was at the WTO, MFN (most favored nation) tariff level of 10%, which gives an effective average tariff rate of 9%. This would amount to approximately $35-38/MT of savings. The tariff on WMP and SMP is reduced each year, from 10% in 2008, to 6.7% in 2011, to 5.8% in 2012 through to zero in 2019. However there is a safeguard whereby once a trigger volume for imports of powders is reached the tariff for any additional imports reverts back to the WTO, MFN tariff level. For 2011, the trigger tonnage was 109,974 tons of powders, which was reached by the end of March 2011. In 2012 the trigger level will increase by 5% again to 115,474 tons which was been reached in March. Even though the official tariff will be zero by 2019 the trigger volume mechanism still be in play right through to 2023 when the trigger volume will be 197,498 MT. It is thought that it is not the small reduction in overall tariffs that makes the FTA advantageous but the forum the FTA provides to address SPS issues and other non-tariff barriers. When comparing exports to the US to those to China it is obvious that the average prices achieved in the two markets are very different. Primarily the product mixes are very different with the casein and MPC products being very much more costly to produce and achieving very much higher prices on world markets than WMP does. Global Dairy Trade – Electronic Auction Platform for Dairy Products Fonterra developed and began selling WMP via the electronic auction platform in mid 2008. Initially auctions were held monthly but by September 2010 the frequency was doubled to two auctions each month. Having started as a regional Oceania trade avenue the auction platform has become an international forum for dairy product trade. Now there are four vendors: Arla (EU); Murray Goulburn (Aus); Dairy America/California Dairies (US); and Fonterra (NZ and Aus) and purchasers from right around the globe. Having started with WMP as the single category being sold, there are now eight commodity groups sold comprised of: WMP, SMP, AMF, Milk Protein Concentrate, Rennet Casein, Lactose, Cheddar Cheese, and Butter Milk Powder. Each auction event runs for 4 delivery periods (contracts 1 to 4) for each commodity which as the year progresses gives purchasers many opportunities to purchase product for a targeted delivery month. In addition Fonterra publishes forecasts for the volumes of each product it intends to sell. The Global Trade Dairy auction has now become a leading method of price discovery for the sector. For Fonterra the gDT has become a significant sales channel. For example in 2011, 395,546 MT of WMP was sold via gDT which was equivalent to approximately 35% of total NZ production of WMP. In 2010 377,200 MT of WMP was sold via gDT which was nearly 40% of total NZ production. Source: gDT Source: gDT Source: gDT The chart above tracks the relative pricing for the protein component in WMP (regular grade, contract period two) and SMP (medium heat, contract period two) for Fonterra product sold in the gDT auction. The fat component in AMF is used to price the fat components in the WMP and SMP sold at the same auction. The AMF is regular 210 kg drum specification sold in contract period two. For many years now cow breeding in New Zealand has focused on increasing the protein component of the raw milk, it is easy to see why. It would seem reasonable to assume that purchasers would tend to price SMP and WMP to equalize the protein component costings and for the most part it appears they do. However during the middle of 2011 the prices for the protein components in WMP and SMP diverged significantly. Industry commentators recognized this but were at a loss to explain the reasons. The volumes of SMP sold on gDT were relatively low during the period in question and it is likely the end-users such as Fast Moving Consumer Goods Manufacturers in Asia who were experiencing very strong demand and could afford to pay the increased prices and not change their input mixes for a short period of time. Policy Dairy Industry Restructuring Act (DIRA) In 2011, the Minister of Agriculture determined that the DIRA would be reviewed and proposals for amendment to the Act be developed by the then Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (now the Ministry for Primary Industry-MPI). This was in response to pressure from several quarters: The Minister and the then MAF were thinking that the DIRA was 10 years old and the regulatory environment and sector structure had developed/changed since the inception of the Act and it was time to refresh it; Fonterra itself was desirous of change; Implementation of Trading Among Farmers (TAF* see below) would require regulatory change; Other parties directly affected by the raw milk regulations have agitated for change; Various consumer groups and NGO’s have lobbied the government to review how the milk price to consumers comes about as they think consumers in NZ are paying too much for milk. The DIRA Amendment Bill of 2012 was placed before the Parliament in March 2012 and it has survived its first reading and vote. It is now before the Primary Sector Select Committee which will hear submissions and determine whether to recommend changes to the bill. The main proposals put up by MPI and incorporated into the bill include: For the Fonterra Farm gate milk price: embedding Fonterra's current milk price governance arrangements in legislation; requiring Fonterra to publicly disclose information in relation to its milk price setting scheme; and; Introducing a milk price monitoring/oversight regime. This would involve the Commerce Commission undertaking and publishing the results of an annual qualitative assessment of Fonterra's milk price setting scheme. This assessment would focus on Fonterra's underlying assumptions, inputs and processes, rather than Fonterra's milk price itself, measured against the outcomes that would have arisen in a competitive market for farmers' milk. Fonterra share price and TAF formation: a minimum fund size of $500 million as a pre-condition to launch of TAF; a further pre-condition that Fonterra shares and fund securities be listed on a registered exchange at all times; locking-in key structural features of TAF in legislation to ensure that they are maintained post launch, such as the presence of Registered Volume Providers; prohibiting Fonterra from engaging in behavior with the purpose of hindering liquidity and fungibility (i.e. exchangeability of shares and units) of the TAF share and fund markets; and Imposing obligations on Fonterra to ensure that fund investors have the ability to appoint/remove a fund manager, and the ability to wind up the fund. And in relation to the Raw Milk regulations: independent processors, who source some of their raw milk directly from farmers, only being able to access raw milk under the Raw Milk Regulations for three seasons; The total quantity of raw milk available under the Raw Milk Regulations to be increased to approximately five percent of Fonterra's milk supply. The Act sets the maximum quantity at five percent but the Regulations currently limit the total volume to 600 million liters (approximately 4 percent of Fonterra's total milk supply); the October Rule, governing the volumes of milk that can be taken each month, will be removed and replaced with a series of maximum quantity limits set, restricting how much milk independent processors can take under the Raw Milk Regulations in different months of the season, based on the seasonal supply curve; and the price for regulated milk to be changed by removing the $0.10 margin, which is currently added to the farm gate milk price to compensate Fonterra for providing independent processors with the opportunity to take regulated milk on a flatter curve than that which Fonterra receives from its farmers. Some participants in the sector see the main issues of contention surrounding the notional milk pricing model and the milk pricing manual as used by Fonterra; and power(s) that may be given to the Commerce Commission to review raw milk pricing methodology are perceived as too vague and provide no real protection for startup processors to get well established. This is an infant industry argument for protection which others in the sector would say is not needed given the Dairy sector in New Zealand is well established, successful, and competitive on a world stage. The parliamentary process has been fast tracked so that the bill should be law by midyear. Fonterra Restructuring – Trading Among Farmers (TAF) The Trading Among Farmers (TAF) proposal was approved by farmers in June 2010, and is the final leg in a wide range of restructuring measures of the Fonterra Co-operative. Under the TAF, Fonterra would no longer be required to redeem and issue farmer supply shares on demand, instead Fonterra would set up an exchange for farmers to trade shares among themselves. The TAF has yet to be implemented as there are several issues which still need to be resolved, principally they are: The proposal for the Fonterra Shareholders Fund would allow for investments from the general public and financial institutions, which is proving contentious for some farmers. The fund investors would be able to reap economic benefit from Fonterra Coop shares (i.e. dividend flow and capital gains/losses); however they would not have any voting rights. The establishment of a NZ$500m fund (approximately 8-10% of the total Fonterra share capital) has been proposed. Even though this equity capital fund would not have direct voting rights some industry participants think the proposal could over time have far reaching effects on complete, farmer-only control of the Co-op. The Co-op would still have to issue additional shares as production grows as generally production must be backed by share capital (at the rate of 1 share per kg of milk solids). However, they would not have to redeem shares if production fell in any one year, which would in effect give the Co-op a steadily increasing pool of permanent capital (equity) with no redemption risk for the Co- op which has been one of the goals of the restructuring process. The Dairy Industry Restructuring Act (DIRA) has to be amended before TAF can be implemented. The formation of Fonterra was established (from the single desk Dairy Board and the farmer-owned processing co-ops (bar two)) under the DIRA in 1999/2000. This was done without Commerce Commission examination and approval. The DIRA set up various controls on Fonterra to limit the potential for anti-competitive behavior either at the farm gate or the processor level. Specifically freedom of entry and exit from the Co-op for farmers without any undue consequences was a key part of the controls on the Co-op. The Ministry for Primary Industry’s (MPI’s) view is that without some safeguards, TAF could impinge on this key part of the regulations which have governed Fonterra’s existence so far. The MPI has proposed new conditions to be observed and implemented by Fonterra in order for TAF to be implemented. The regulatory conditions for TAF include: the shareholders fund; and Commerce Commission evaluation of how the farm gate raw milk price (for Fonterra suppliers) is calculated each year. There are some who see the political processes and additional policy and regulations taking control away from farmers of their own Co-op, and putting parts of the Co-ops internal workings into the hands of bureaucrats. However the degree to which this happens will be determined over the next few months as the bill containing the amendments passes through the parliament and becomes law. A final vote on the TAF will be taken by the Fonterra shareholders at an extraordinary meeting on 25th June, 2012. Free Trade Agreements The following agreements are in force: New Zealand-Hong Kong, China Closer Economic Partnership (NZ-HK CEP entered into force on 1 January 2011) New Zealand-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement (MNZFTA entered into force on 1 August 2010) ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA) - 2010 New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement (NZ-China FTA) - 2008 Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (P4) - 2005 New Zealand-Thailand Closer Economic Partnership (NZTCEP) - 2005 New Zealand-Singapore Closer Economic Partnership (NZSCEP) - 2001 Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relationship (CER) - 1983 New Zealand-Australia Closer Economic Relations Investment Protocol (CER IP) (Subject to Parliamentary Treaty Examination, expected to enter into force in the second half of 2011) In addition, the New Zealand Government is currently negotiating the following FTAs: Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA signed; yet to be ratified) New Zealand-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Agreement (NZ-GCC FTA negotiations have been concluded but not yet signed) Expansion of the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP) New Zealand-Korea Free Trade Agreement (NZ-Korea FTA) New Zealand-India Free Trade Agreement (NZ-India FTA) New Zealand-Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Free Trade Agreement (NZ-RBK) New Zealand-Hong Kong, Closer Economic Partnership Investment Protocol (CEP IP) While exporters report that FTAs do not drive business decisions, they do provide a framework to work out trade-related issues, especially SPS and non-tariff barriers, and, in some cases, convey significant market access advantages.
Posted: 20 May 2012

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