Oilseeds and Products Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Pakistan

Posted on: 21 Apr 2012

Pakistan's MY 2012/13 vegetable oil imports are forecast at a record 2.3 million metric tons.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 4/4/2012 GAIN Report Number: Pakistan Oilseeds and Products Annual Oilseeds and Products Annual 2012 Approved By: Richard Todd Drennan Prepared By: M. Shafiq ur Rehman Report Highlights: Pakistan?s MY 2012/13 vegetable oil imports are forecast at a record 2.3 million metric tons (MMT), four percent higher than the estimated 2.2 MMT imported in MY 2011/12. Nearly 73 percent of Pakistan?s domestic consumption of vegetable oil is met through imports, 85 percent of which is comprised of palm oil. Imports of soybean meal during MY 2012/13 are projected at 350,000 tons, largely sourced from India. MY 2012/13 oilseed production is forecast at a record 5.8 MMT, up 8 percent from the estimated 5.7 MMT harvested in MY 2011/12. Pakistan?s cottonseed production in MY 2011/12 increased by 15 percent estimated at 4.3 MMT. Imports of oilseeds are forecast at 1.0 MMT (80 percent rapeseed and 19 percent sunflower seed). Executive Summary: Pakistan is a net importer of oilseeds and edible oils. Domestic production of edible oils is sufficient to meet only about 27 percent of total demand. Domestic oilseed production includes cotton seed, sunflower seed and rapeseed. MY 2012/13 oilseed production is forecast at 5.8 MMT, 8 percent higher than the revised estimate of 5.4 MMT harvested in MY 2011/12. Cottonseed regularly accounts for about 82 percent of Pakistan?s total oilseeds production. Imports of oilseeds are forecast at 1.0 MMT (80 percent rapeseed/ canola and 19 percent sunflower seed). Total supply of oilseed available for crushing in MY 2012/13 is forecasted at 6.2 MMT, 8 percent higher than the estimates of MY 2011/12. MY 2012/13 domestic meal production is forecast at 3.0 MMT, up 8 percent from current year?s level of 2.7 MMT. MY 2012/13 imports of soybean meal are forecast at 350,000 tons, 17 percent higher than MY 2011/12 imports. Virtually all of Pakistan?s soy meal imports are sourced from India. MY 2012/13 oil production is forecast at 1.5 MMT, 8 percent higher than current year?s estimate. Vegetable oil imports are forecast at a record 2.3 MMT, an increase of 4 percent relative to MY2011/12. Palm oil accounts for 98 percent of the total edible oil imports. Commodities: Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Oilseed, Soybean Production: Pakistan?s major crop rotation in the existing cereal production system is wheat, cotton, rice, sugarcane and maize. However, some pockets for non conventional oilseed crops like sunflower and canola are emerging in all provinces. Pakistan has been constantly and chronically deficient in edible oil production. At present, about 73 percent of domestic requirements are met through imports. Since 1970?s oilseed import has been on the increase and this trend is likely to continue with burgeoning population. Sporadic efforts were made to increase local oilseed production but so far, achieved little success to narrow the vast gap between production and requirement. Total domestic oilseed production during MY 2012/13 (Oct-Sep) is forecast at 5.8 MMT, up 8 percent over MY 2011/12 production estimate due to an anticipated increase in cottonseed production. Production of cottonseed is forecast at 4.8 MMT, 10 percent higher than current year?s flood reduced production level. Sunflower seed production is forecast at 700,000 tons, down 7 percent from last year and rapeseed production is forecast at 340,000 tons, 3 percent higher than the previous year?s estimate of 330,000 tons. Post?s estimate of Pakistan?s total oilseed production in MY 2011/12 was revised down 6 percent to 5.4 MMT, mainly due to decrease in cotton production. The decline in cotton production is attributed to last year?s excessive rains/floods in Sindh province, which caused an estimated loss of over 1.5 million cotton bales. Cottonseed: Cottonseed is the principal oilseed crop grown in Pakistan, accounting for about 80 percent of domestic oilseed production. Cotton is the country?s most important cash crop and is considered the backbone of the national economy. It is produced primarily for fiber, with oil and meal production of secondary importance. Seed cotton contains both lint and cottonseed. MY 2012/13 cottonseed production is forecast at 4.8 million tons, 10 percent higher than current year?s flood reduced crop output. This increase in production is mainly attributed to an increase in cotton planted area substituted from sugarcane and sunflower crops. Rapeseed: Rapeseed-mustard is an important species of Brassica group grown as oilseed crops in Pakistan. It has remained one of the major sources of edible oil in the sub-continent for centuries. It is sometimes grown as a fodder in mixture with "berseem" (alfalfa/medics). Area under rapeseed-mustard has been fluctuating mainly depending on GOP?s policy for wheat crop and partly on the prevailing weather conditions. Availability of moisture in marginal areas helped farmers to increase rapeseed/ canola planted acreage. MY 2012/13 rapeseed production is forecast at 340,000 tons, up 3 percent from last year?s estimated crop of 330,000 tons. Sunflower seed: In Pakistan commercial cultivation of sunflower began in the 1960?s. Sunflower production remained cyclical mainly due to its competition with major crops such as cotton and wheat and marketing issues. MY 2012/13 sunflower seed production is forecast at 700,000 tons, 7 percent down from the current year?s estimate due to increased area planted to cotton. Consumption: Oilseed consumption will likely continue to be strong in ensuing years due to Pakistan?s high population growth rate and steady growth in poultry and livestock sectors. Pakistan is a growing market for oilseeds export from Canada, Australia and the Ukraine. Since 2005, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) has implemented liberalized import policies for oilseeds. The oilseed crushing industry, the main beneficiary of these policies improved its efficiency by overhauling older machinery and installing high- tech solvent extraction equipment. Total oilseed crush in 2012/13 is anticipated to be 8 percent higher than in 2011/12 because of projected higher local production supplemented with imports. Almost 85 to 90 percent of total oilseed production is crushed for oil with the balance quantity used for food, feed, and seed purposes. Trade: Total imports of oilseeds for crushing are forecast at 1.0 MMT in MY 2012/13, up 13 percent over last year?s estimate. Increased demand for edible oil from the burgeoning population and oilseed meal for the growing livestock and poultry sectors have led to an increasing dependence on imported oilseeds. Table 1: Oilseed Import Statistics (Figures in Metric Tons) Product CY - 2010 CY -2011 Jan/Feb -2012 Rapeseed/Canola 1,164,914 736,539 223,780 Sunflower 0 186,208 0 Soybean 10 10 0 Total 1,164,924 922,757 223,780 Source: Ministry of Commerce (MOC), Government of Pakistan The MY 2012/13 oilseed import forecast includes 850,000 tons of rapeseed/canola (mainly from Canada, Australia and the Ukraine), and 200,000 tons of sunflower seed from Australia. Since June 2005, under liberalized policy regime, the GOP has exempted oilseeds from import duty, central excise duty and federal excise duty. The following table presents the duty structure levied on imported edible oils and oilseeds. Table 2: Duty Structure on Edible Oil and Oilseeds (Figures in Pak. Rupees) Product Import Import Import CED I.Tax Adv.I. FED S.T Duty Duty Duty Tax (Malaysia) (Indonesia) Palm 7,743 9,100 - 16% 3% - 1,000 - Olein RBDPO 9,230 10,850 - 16% 3% - 1,000 - CPO 6,850 8,050 - 16% 3% - 1,000 - CDSBO 9,100 16% 3% - 1,000 - All - - - - - 3% - 15% Oilseeds Source: Central Board of Revenue (CBR), Government of Pakistan RBDPO: Refined Bleached Deodorized Palm oil CPO: Crude Palm Oil CDSBO: Crude Deodorized Soybean Oil CED: Central Excise Duty FED: Federal Excise Duty I. Tax: Income Tax S.T: Sales Tax MY 2011/12 oilseed imports were estimated at 950,000 tons. Rapeseed/canola seed are typically sourced from Canada and Australia. Policy: In an attempt to ensure food security, Pakistan?s agriculture policy is largely focused on the enhancement of wheat production. Oilseed production typically receives less attention compared to crops like wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane. In an effort to enhance oilseed production in the country, in 1995, Pakistan Oilseed Development Board (PODB) was established under the administrative control of federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MINFA). Upon the approval of the 18th constitutional amendment by Parliament in 2011, MINFA was devolved and its functions were delegated to provinces. The devolution of federal ministry also abandoned the functioning of PODB at the centre. So, at present, there is no central authority to promote domestic oilseeds and to provide a sound regulatory and policy framework to this sector. There is no support price mechanism for oilseeds and the GOP does not procure oilseeds. The lack of availability of quality seed, poor coordination among research organizations, lack of suitable machinery for planting, harvesting and threshing operations, improper dissemination of site-specific production technologies and lack of research-based crop management are some of the major constraints being faced by the oilseed sector. Given the poor quality of local oilseeds and logistical hurdles of transporting oilseeds to crushing facilities, the domestic crushing industry has focused more on importing quality oilseeds rather than providing incentives to local growers for increased domestic production. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Total Oilseeds Pakistan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 3,522 3,452 3,992 3,872 4,152 Beginning Stocks 312 40 85 50 40 Production 4,717 4,832 5,532 5,432 5,842 MY Imports 857 1,170 1,060 950 1,070 MY Imp. from U.S. 2 2 2 2 2 MY Imp. from EU 100 100 100 100 100 Total Supply 5,886 6,042 6,677 6,432 6,952 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 5,170 5,360 5,660 5,720 6,190 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 631 632 736 672 712 Total Dom. Cons. 5,801 5,992 6,396 6,392 6,902 Ending Stocks 85 50 231 40 50 Total Distribution 5,886 6,042 6,677 6,432 6,952 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Oilseed, Cottonseed P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted (Cotton) 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested (Cotton) 2,900 2,650 3,200 3,000 3,300 Seed to Lint Ratio 0 67 0 67 67 Beginning Stocks 100 0 0 0 0 Production 3,800 3,800 4,500 4,350 4,800 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,900 3,800 4,500 4,350 4,800 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 3,400 3,300 3,800 3,800 4,200 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 500 500 600 550 600 Total Dom. Cons. 3,900 3,800 4,400 4,350 4,800 Ending Stocks 0 0 100 0 0 Total Distribution 3,900 3,800 4,500 4,350 4,800 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Oilseed, Rapeseed P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 270 270 290 370 380 Beginning Stocks 140 20 85 40 30 Production 230 230 280 330 340 MY Imports 811 1,160 850 750 850 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 100 100 100 100 100 Total Supply 1,181 1,410 1,215 1,120 1,220 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 1,000 1,270 1,050 1,010 1,100 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 96 100 94 80 80 Total Dom. Cons. 1,096 1,370 1,144 1,090 1,180 Ending Stocks 85 40 71 30 40 Total Distribution 1,181 1,410 1,215 1,120 1,220 CY Imports 820 820 850 850 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 450 530 500 500 470 Beginning Stocks 72 20 0 10 10 Production 685 800 750 750 700 MY Imports 36 0 200 190 200 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 793 820 950 950 910 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 Crush 760 780 800 900 870 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 33 30 40 40 30 Total Dom. Cons. 793 810 840 940 900 Ending Stocks 0 10 110 10 10 Total Distribution 793 820 950 950 910 CY Imports 170 170 100 100 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Oilseed, Soybean P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Jun Market Year Begin: May Market Year Begin: Jun 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 2 0 2 0 0 Area Harvested 2 2 2 2 2 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 2 2 2 2 2 MY Imports 10 10 10 10 20 MY Imp. from U.S. 2 2 2 2 20 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 12 12 12 12 22 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 10 10 10 10 20 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 2 2 2 2 2 Total Dom. Cons. 12 12 12 12 22 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 12 12 12 12 22 CY Imports 10 10 10 10 20 CY Imp. from U.S. 2 2 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Commodities: Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Meal, Soybean Production: MY 2012/13 oilseed meal production is forecast at 3.0 MMT, up 8 percent over MY 2011/12 due to the projected increase in local production of cottonseed and rapeseed. Post?s estimate of MY2011/12 oil meal production was revised downward to 2.7 MMT, mainly due to lower production of cotton crop affected by floods. The domestic crushing industry traditionally produces an oilseed meal ration comprised of 64 percent cottonseed, 22 percent rapeseed/canola and 14 percent sunflower seed. Consumption: Generally, total oil meal consumption follows the growth trend in the domestic poultry, livestock and aquaculture sectors. Pakistan?s poultry meat production is expected to grow by more than 10 percent per annum. The layer industry is also expanding to provide relatively cheap protein compared to other sources of protein to the burgeoning population. The pace of dairy feed production is stepping up in commercial dairy units as the import of high milk yielding animals is on the rise. A few trained poultry feed manufacturers have started producing dairy feed on commercial lines encouraging demand for soybean meal for high yielding animals. MY 2012/13 meal requirements are forecast to increase to 3.4 MMT due to the anticipated expansion of the poultry, dairy and livestock sectors. Traditional feed rations (cottonseed meal, rapeseed meal and sunflower seed meal) are inadequate and contain minimal protein. Feed millers are using increasing quantities of soybean meal to improve the meal quality. The growing demand for higher quality protein meal by livestock and poultry producers has increased the use of soybean meal from the traditional 5-7 percent to 10-15 percent. Trade: Virtually all of Pakistan?s meal imports are comprised of soybean meal imported from India. Imports in MY2012/13 are forecast at 350,000 tons, up 17 percent over MY 2011/12 estimate of 300,000 tons. Prospects for imports of U.S. soybean meal remains limited due to higher freight charges and time lag required relative to India. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Total Oil Meal Pakistan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 5,170 5,360 5,660 5,720 6,190 Beginning Stocks 91 72 65 70 60 Production 2,483 2,606 2,714 2,738 2,970 MY Imports 275 275 275 300 350 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 2,849 2,953 3,054 3,108 3,380 MY Exports 52 50 60 60 60 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 2,732 2,833 2,934 2,988 3,260 Total Dom. Cons. 2,732 2,833 2,934 2,988 3,260 Ending Stocks 65 70 60 60 60 Total Distribution 2,849 2,953 3,054 3,108 3,380 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 SME 1,292 2,296 1,426 2,421 2,625 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Meal, Cottonseed 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Pakistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Crush 3,400 3,300 3,800 3,800 4,200 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.46 0. 0.46 0.46 Beginning Stocks 91 72 65 70 60 Production 1,568 1,518 1,755 1,750 1,940 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,659 1,590 1,820 1,820 2,000 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1,594 1,520 1,760 1,760 1,940 Total Dom. Cons. 1,594 1,520 1,760 1,760 1,940 Ending Stocks 65 70 60 60 60 Total Distribution 1,659 1,590 1,820 1,820 2,000 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 SME 1,292 1,232 1,426 1,426 1,572 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 Meal, Rapeseed P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Crush 1,000 1,270 1,050 1,010 1,100 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1. 0.59 1. 0.59 0.59 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 590 750 618 600 650 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 590 750 618 600 650 MY Exports 52 50 60 60 50 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 538 700 558 540 600 Total Dom. Cons. 538 700 558 540 600 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 590 750 618 600 650 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 50 50 60 60 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 SME 383 498 397 384 427 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Meal, Sunflowerseed P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Crush 760 780 800 900 870 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.42 0. 0.42 0.42 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 317 330 333 380 365 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 317 330 333 380 365 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 317 330 333 380 365 Total Dom. Cons. 317 330 333 380 365 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 317 330 333 380 365 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 SME 299 312 314 359 345 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Meal, Soybean 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Pakistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: May Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Crush 10 10 10 10 20 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1. 0.8 1. 0.8 0.75 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Production 8 8 8 8 15 MY Imports 275 275 275 300 350 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 283 283 283 308 365 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 283 283 283 308 365 Total Dom. Cons. 283 283 283 308 365 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 283 283 283 308 365 CY Imports 275 275 275 275 365 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 SME 283 283 283 308 365 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Commodities: Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sunflowerseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Palm Production: Based on increased crush volume stemming from a larger cotton crop supplemented with increased imports of canola and sunflower seed, domestic production of vegetable oil in MY 2012/13 is forecast at 1.5 MMT, up 8 percent over the MY 2011/12 revised estimate. Domestic oil production is sufficient to meet only about 27 percent of demand with the balance met through imports. A growing population and only a limited ability to expand domestic production means that larger imports will be needed in order to meet Pakistan?s increasing demand for edible oils. MY 2011/12 edible oil production is estimated at 1.35 MMT, which includes 590,000 tons of cottonseed oil, 400, 000 tons of rapeseed oil and 360,000 tons of sunflower seed oil. Consumption: MY 2012/13 total oil consumption is forecast at 3.7 MMT, up 6 percent over last year?s estimates. The share of imported oil in total consumption is close to 75 percent. Palm oil is the dominant oil consumed in Pakistan. Demand for palm oil for both home consumers and food processors remains strong mainly because of its competitiveness to other oils. Blending palm oil with local oils and selling it as cooking oil is popular in Pakistan. For health reasons consumers are gradually shifting from hydrogenated oils towards soft oils. However, price remains the determining factor in most consumers purchasing decisions. Trade: Pakistan is among one of the world?s largest importers of vegetable oil. In MY 2012/13, palm oil imports are forecast at a record 2.26 MMT, up 5 percent from last year?s estimate of 2.1 MMT. Refined palm oil accounts for about 98 percent of Pakistan?s total edible oil imports. The United States exports only limited quantities of soybean oil to Pakistan in the form of food aid. Table 3: Edible Oil Import Statistics (Figures in Metric Tons) Product CY - 2010 CY -2011 Jan/Feb -2012 Olien 1,211,367 970,747 133,897 RBDPO 184,202 263,443 65,970 CPO 491,898 749,000 81,976 CDSBO 45,950 51,200 0 Total 1,887,467 1,983,190 281,843 Source: Ministry of Commerce (MOC), Government of Pakistan Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Total Oil Pakistan 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: Oct 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 5,170 5,360 5,660 5,720 6,190 Beginning Stocks 118 95 124 100 115 Production 1,271 1,347 1009 1,352 1,464 MY Imports 2,157 2,058 2,247 2,198 2,286 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,546 3,500 3,380 3,650 3,865 MY Exports 501 60 50 60 60 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 128 110 130 110 108 Food Use Dom. Cons. 3,184 3,167 3,008 3,302 3,509 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 63 63 62 63 63 Total Dom. Cons. 3,375 3,340 3,200 3,475 3,680 Ending Stocks 121 100 130 115 125 Total Distribution 3,546 3,500 3,380 3,650 3,865 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Oil, Cottonseed P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Crush 3,400 3,300 3,800 3,800 4,200 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.16 0. 0.16 0.16 Beginning Stocks 30 30 20 20 30 Production 530 520 590 590 670 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 560 550 610 610 700 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 28 30 30 30 30 Food Use Dom. Cons. 512 500 550 550 640 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 540 530 580 580 670 Ending Stocks 20 20 30 30 30 Total Distribution 560 550 610 610 700 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Oil, Rapeseed P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Crush 1,000 1,270 1,050 1,010 1,100 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.4 0. 0.4 0.4 Beginning Stocks 24 5 34 10 15 Production 437 510 417 400 440 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 461 515 451 410 455 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 10 10 10 10 10 Food Use Dom. Cons. 416 494 411 384 429 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1 1 0 1 1 Total Dom. Cons. 427 505 421 395 440 Ending Stocks 34 10 30 15 15 Total Distribution 461 515 451 410 455 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Oil, Sunflowerseed 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Pakistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Crush 760 780 800 900 870 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.4 0. 0.4 0.4 Beginning Stocks 14 10 7 10 10 Production 302 315 318 360 350 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 316 325 325 370 360 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 309 315 315 360 350 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 309 315 315 360 350 Ending Stocks 7 10 10 10 10 Total Distribution 316 325 325 370 360 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Oil, Soybean P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: May Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Crush 10 10 10 10 20 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.18 0. 0.18 0.18 Beginning Stocks 0 0 10 10 10 Production 2 2 2 2 4 MY Imports 57 58 47 48 26 MY Imp. from U.S. 21 21 3 3 26 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 59 60 59 60 40 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 47 48 47 48 30 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 2 2 2 2 2 Total Dom. Cons. 49 50 49 50 32 Ending Stocks 10 10 10 10 8 Total Distribution 59 60 59 60 40 CY Imports 75 0 47 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 21 21 3 3 0 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 Oil, Palm P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 akistan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 Trees 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 50 50 50 50 50 Production 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imports 2,100 2,000 2,200 2,150 2,260 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 2,150 2,050 2,250 2,200 2,310 MY Exports 50 60 50 60 60 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 90 70 90 70 70 Food Use Dom. Cons. 1,900 1,810 2,000 1,960 2,060 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 60 60 60 60 60 Total Dom. Cons. 2,050 1,940 2,150 2,090 2,190 Ending Stocks 50 50 50 50 60 Total Distribution 2,150 2,050 2,250 2,200 2,310 CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exports 50 50 50 50 50 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0
Posted: 21 April 2012

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